Monday 1 September 2014, 16:13
The coolest August for over 20 years means summer as a whole was close to average.
Monday 1 September 2014, 16:13
Provisional figures released by the Met Office show August was the coolest since 1993.
This brings an abrupt end to a run of warmer than average months which began in December last year.
It was also a wet month, with around 142% of average rainfall across the UK, but amounts of sunshine were close to normal.
Following a warm June (equal 9th warmest since 1910), and a warm July (equal 8th warmest since 1910), the cool August means that summer as a whole was very close to average, with mean temperatures just 0.5C above normal and average rainfall.
Early September, in contrast to August, is looking much more settled, with high pressure expected to dominate well into next week.
This means the emphasis is on predominantly dry weather, with the main forecasting headache determining the amounts of cloud across the country day to day.
Wednesday 27 August 2014, 16:59
After what has turned into a very disappointing August - certainly when compared with June and July - summer will return to much of the country next week.
It’s often the case that the weather in early September improves significantly after an unsettled August – as was the case in 2012.
There’s relatively high confidence in the scenario too - most computer models develop high pressure for early September – with a suggestion of some very warm air drifting in from the continent later in the week.
The American model, for example, has temperatures approaching 80 degrees Fahrenheit across some central and southern areas of the country by Friday, with prolonged sunshine.
Longer term, models suggest more unsettled and much cooler conditions may return towards the middle of September – which again would be very similar to the pattern that developed in September 2012.
Tuesday 29 July 2014, 16:46
A change of calendar month is likely to herald a change in the weather, with low pressure set to dominate conditions during early August.
Summer so far has, generally speaking, been a good one, with a distinct lack of low pressure.
But all that will change by Friday, with most models indicating the UK will be on the forward side of the Atlantic upper trough, with low pressure to the west of the UK.
Weather-wise this means showers or even some longer spells of rain can be expected, but with some decent drier, brighter spells too.
At least temperatures will be at or a little above normal for much of the time, with a prevailing south-westerly wind.
Finally, last weekend’s weather show featured an interview I had with Prof Matt Collins from the Met Office regarding the likely strength of El Nino and the possible implications for global climate and temperatures later this year.
It follows an international conference on the subject the previous week.
You can hear the interview on the BBC iplayer by clicking here.
Monday 21 July 2014, 17:30
After this weekend’s brief flirtation with unsettled weather, high pressure is again re-establishing itself across the country.
Some of the storms at the weekend led to localised flooding, for example in Market Weighton yesterday, but most areas avoided any such problems.
But with the barometer rising once more, we can look forward to another week of fine and warm weather in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.
High pressure is expected to develop over Scandinavia, the resulting easterly breeze likely to bring low cloud in from the North Sea at times overnight.
Much of this low cloud though will...
Monday 14 July 2014, 17:04
In what, so far, has been a decent warm summer, the first real plume of continental warmth and humidity is expected later this week.
It’s a classic British summer set-up, apparently first noted by none other than King George II in the early part of the 18th century, describing the British summer as three fine days and a thunderstorm.
Professor Hubert Lamb, who studied summer weather patterns over 100 years, also identified the type of weather that will develop this week as the ‘thundery and cyclonic’ phase of the British summer.
This phase more often than not would become established...
Thursday 3 July 2014, 10:48
The world’s biggest annual sporting event comes to Yorkshire on Saturday, with all eyes as ever on the forecast!
The Tour de France cycling race begins on Saturday morning in Leeds, ending on Sunday afternoon in Sheffield, covering around 250 miles.
And right on cue, our weather is turning much more unsettled.
The biggest uncertainty centres on an active cold front heading in from the Atlantic later on Friday.
Its clearance on Saturday morning may be delayed by a wave on the cold front, which has been signalled in the last few days by several models.
However, in the last 12 hours the...
Thursday 26 June 2014, 17:35
Latest El Nino forecast:
A few months ago I wrote about the strong possibility of an El Nino event developing in the Pacific later this year.
El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world.
The latest computer predictions give a 70% chance of an El Nino this summer, rising to 80% through autumn and winter.
And according to the ECMWF model, the probability of an El Nino is even higher, at 90%.
But talk of a very strong El Nino like that in 1997/98 appear wide of the mark...
Tuesday 17 June 2014, 20:45
High pressure is now firmly in charge of our weather, although certainly for much of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire it’s been disappointingly cloudy.
A feed of moist northerly air around the periphery of the area of high pressure is to blame, with southern and western parts of the UK most favoured in these situations.
Nevertheless, the predominantly dry and settled conditions which were predicted around 10 days ago look set to continue well into next week.
It’s at this time of the year that climatologist Professor Lamb’s work is of interest.
He studied 100 years of weather patterns to determine...
Tuesday 10 June 2014, 20:35
It’s been a turbulent start to the week, with thunderstorms yesterday causing flash flooding in parts of Lincolnshire, with more heavy downpours this evening.
But with pressure building in the next 24 hours, we can look forward to a spell of largely settled weather from tomorrow.
Most forecast computer models are suggesting that high pressure will dominate our weather into the second half of the month, with the emphasis very much on a spell of settled weather.
Both Wednesday and Thursday will be fine and warm
The period may not though be entirely dry.
A weakening weather front on Friday...
Monday 2 June 2014, 17:17
Provisional figures from the Met Office indicate that spring this year across the UK has been the third warmest in records which date back to 1910.
It continues a run of warmer than average months which began in December of last year.
Rainfall this spring has been close to average across the UK – but May itself was very wet particularly across England, with 156% of average rainfall up to 28th May.
But what a huge contrast this is with spring 2013, which was the coldest across the UK since 1962, making it the 5th coldest since 1910.
March last year in particular was one of the snowiest...