May has turned out to be a real let down, following the glorious April which was the sunniest on record across the UK.
Provisional figures for Yorkshire show it was much wetter than normal, but with a marked contrast temperature-wise from west to east, with mean temperatures in the east not actually far from the seasonal average.
And June has begun with very unseasonable weather conditions.
The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for strong winds, with gusts to 50mph in exposed locations and along the coast, together with some heavy rain tonight.
But a long-awaited respite is expected from the middle of the week, with high pressure expected to build across the UK.
The picture, as ever, is not totally straightforward, with a risk of thundery showers developing in places on Friday, with some models bringing a risk of rain for a time over the weekend.
But, in general terms, high pressure is likely to dominate for the first half of June, which will mean a big improvement in our weather.
In March, observations in the Pacific confirmed that a weak El Nino event was upon us, with scientists now believing that there is a 70% chance that the phenomena will last through summer, and a 60% chance that it will last through autumn.
El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world.
During previous El Nino events, much wetter winters have occurred in Southwest USA.
For California, the developing El Nino will therefore be welcome news following a chronic lack of rainfall.
The Australian bureau of meteorology has predicted that it could strengthen, with a risk of a ‘substantial’ event.
But caution is required – other models suggest it will remain weak or moderate at best – moreover computer models are notoriously unreliable when it comes to this type of prediction.
There’s been a lot of talk in the media this week about the possible impact El Nino will have here in the UK, with talk of a harsh winter ahead.
Research suggests that it can cause colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean in...
According to Met Office provisional statistics, April was the 5th sunniest on record across the UK.
It was also much drier than normal, with above average temperatures too.
So it’s a shame that the weather has turned much more unsettled, just in time for the inaugural Tour de Yorkshire cycle race.
If the organisers had taken a glance at historical weather conditions for early May then they might have thought again about choosing this bank holiday weekend, such is its track record for cool and unsettled weather.
That said, only Sunday morning looks poor this weekend, so it could have been a lot worse.
Friday looks a perfect day, all parts dry with plenty of sunshine and a light breeze.
Saturday will be fine too, although increasingly chilly as an easterly breeze picks up.
As for Sunday, although timings may change a little, heavy morning rain should clear as conditions improve for the afternoon.
With Bank Holiday Monday looking mostly fine, there will be come reasonable weather to be had this weekend.
The glorious weather that has been with us for much of April is about to end this weekend.
Even though next week will be cooler and more unsettled, April is bound to turn out a warm, dry and sunny month when the monthly statistics are released by the Met Office, with the mean CET (Central England Temperature) currently running 2 degrees Celsius above normal for the month so far.
The fine weather comes at a time when tabloid headline writers have been having a field day, with predictions that the fine weather is the start of a spring and summer heatwave.
It reminded me of the link between the...
On Friday morning, a partial solar eclipse will be visible across our region for the first time since August 1999.
Back then I was filming with Look North in Scarborough.
Conditions were perfect, with hardly a cloud in the sky shortly after sunrise, and the view from the sea front was spectacular.
This time, however, there’s likely to be a lot of cloud in many areas.
That said, there may be scope for cloud breaks especially in eastern areas to the lee of high ground.
The time for maximum coverage of the sun by the moon is 9.33am, with up to 90% of the sun obscured.
I’ll be returning to...
The long term decline in Arctic sea ice is continuing, with satellite data showing the third lowest February ice extent, in records which began in 1979.
The Arctic ice maximum usually happens towards the end of March, although last year there was a large increase in Arctic sea ice, so a new record is by no means certain.
The continued declining trend in Arctic sea ice has been well forecast by climate models, something that can’t be said at the other end of the planet.
Last month, Antarctica sea ice reached its annual minimum, which turned out to be the fourth highest summer minimum extent on...
According to provisional Met Office figures, winter has turned out to be exceptionally sunny, with the UK enjoying its sunniest winter since records began in 1929.
And contrary to the many hysterical headlines of extreme cold, winter temperatures were close to normal, with rainfall just slightly above normal across the UK.
That’s a big improvement on last winter which was the wettest on record.
March has certainly come in like a lion, with strong winds and a risk of sleet and snow showers for many in the next 24 hours.
But by the weekend, there’s a real prospect of spring-like conditions, with...
A fine and dry week is expected with high pressure dominating our weather, but forecasting temperature levels will be challenging to say the least.
Firstly, air is flowing over the Pennines from west to east, drying and warming as it does so.
This is called the Fohn effect, resulting in temperatures in the Vale of York, for example, in double figures.
Yesterday 12C (54F) was recorded in Durham, with a definite feel of spring in the air.
The second complication is a lowering temperature inversion.
Counter-intuitively this results in temperatures at the top of a hill or mountain being higher than...
Snow showers have again been causing problems this evening in eastern parts of our region, with the Yorkshire Wolds around Fridaythorpe and Garrowby Hill worst affected.
These areas – mostly to the east of the A1 and M1 – will continue to be at risk from snow showers over the next few days.
The Met Office has issued a warning for Tuesday night into Wednesday for eastern areas, with the potential for frequent snow showers leading to significant accumulations on the North York moors and Wolds, with several centimetres at lower levels too.
Western areas will be generally dry, but with sharp...
Winter looks set to come roaring back later this week, as an arctic northerly develops across the UK.
For western areas, in particular the Pennines, this comes hot off the heels of last week’s snow, which amounted to 9 inches in places.
But most other parts of our region to the east of high ground have had no proper wintry weather at all so far this winter.
By the weekend, with a straight northerly, it will be north-sea facing coastal areas that will bear the brunt of the sleet and snow showers for a change, with significant accumulations possible, for example, on the North York...