Tuesday 29 July 2014, 16:46
A change in calendar month is expected to bring a change to much more unsettled weather. Plus an El Nino update.
Tuesday 29 July 2014, 16:46
A change of calendar month is likely to herald a change in the weather, with low pressure set to dominate conditions during early August.
Summer so far has, generally speaking, been a good one, with a distinct lack of low pressure.
But all that will change by Friday, with most models indicating the UK will be on the forward side of the Atlantic upper trough, with low pressure to the west of the UK.
Weather-wise this means showers or even some longer spells of rain can be expected, but with some decent drier, brighter spells too.
At least temperatures will be at or a little above normal for much of the time, with a prevailing south-westerly wind.
Finally, last weekend’s weather show featured an interview I had with Prof Matt Collins from the Met Office regarding the likely strength of El Nino and the possible implications for global climate and temperatures later this year.
It follows an international conference on the subject the previous week.
You can hear the interview on the BBC iplayer by clicking here.
Monday 21 July 2014, 17:30
After this weekend’s brief flirtation with unsettled weather, high pressure is again re-establishing itself across the country.
Some of the storms at the weekend led to localised flooding, for example in Market Weighton yesterday, but most areas avoided any such problems.
But with the barometer rising once more, we can look forward to another week of fine and warm weather in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.
High pressure is expected to develop over Scandinavia, the resulting easterly breeze likely to bring low cloud in from the North Sea at times overnight.
Much of this low cloud though will burn back to the coast fairly quickly, leaving most areas warm and sunny by the afternoon.
Current indications suggest this mostly fine and warm weather will last across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire until the end of the week.
There-after there are some indications of a change to a slightly less settled westerly type scenario, either through the weekend, or next week.
But statistically July is certain to end up a very warm month, in what has, so far at least, been a very warm year.
Weather patterns this year have led to exceptionally high levels of pollen, which in turn have resulted in...
Monday 14 July 2014, 17:04
In what, so far, has been a decent warm summer, the first real plume of continental warmth and humidity is expected later this week.
It’s a classic British summer set-up, apparently first noted by none other than King George II in the early part of the 18th century, describing the British summer as three fine days and a thunderstorm.
Professor Hubert Lamb, who studied summer weather patterns over 100 years, also identified the type of weather that will develop this week as the ‘thundery and cyclonic’ phase of the British summer.
This phase more often than not would become established, according to Lamb, from mid to late July, lasting into August.
Temperatures in London and the south-east could quite easily reach around 30C (86F) by Friday with 27C (81F) certainly achievable in our region, more especially across parts of South Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and the North Midlands.
This would make it the hottest spell of weather so far this summer.
But this high humidity, high energy air will be accompanied by falling pressure ahead of a cold front, all the ingredients needed for some lively thunderstorms to break out, which could lead to localised flooding on Friday and into...
Thursday 3 July 2014, 10:48
The world’s biggest annual sporting event comes to Yorkshire on Saturday, with all eyes as ever on the forecast!
The Tour de France cycling race begins on Saturday morning in Leeds, ending on Sunday afternoon in Sheffield, covering around 250 miles.
And right on cue, our weather is turning much more unsettled.
The biggest uncertainty centres on an active cold front heading in from the Atlantic later on Friday.
Its clearance on Saturday morning may be delayed by a wave on the cold front, which has been signalled in the last few days by several models.
However, in the last 12 hours the...
Thursday 26 June 2014, 17:35
Latest El Nino forecast:
A few months ago I wrote about the strong possibility of an El Nino event developing in the Pacific later this year.
El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world.
The latest computer predictions give a 70% chance of an El Nino this summer, rising to 80% through autumn and winter.
And according to the ECMWF model, the probability of an El Nino is even higher, at 90%.
But talk of a very strong El Nino like that in 1997/98 appear wide of the mark...
Tuesday 17 June 2014, 20:45
High pressure is now firmly in charge of our weather, although certainly for much of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire it’s been disappointingly cloudy.
A feed of moist northerly air around the periphery of the area of high pressure is to blame, with southern and western parts of the UK most favoured in these situations.
Nevertheless, the predominantly dry and settled conditions which were predicted around 10 days ago look set to continue well into next week.
It’s at this time of the year that climatologist Professor Lamb’s work is of interest.
He studied 100 years of weather patterns to determine...
Tuesday 10 June 2014, 20:35
It’s been a turbulent start to the week, with thunderstorms yesterday causing flash flooding in parts of Lincolnshire, with more heavy downpours this evening.
But with pressure building in the next 24 hours, we can look forward to a spell of largely settled weather from tomorrow.
Most forecast computer models are suggesting that high pressure will dominate our weather into the second half of the month, with the emphasis very much on a spell of settled weather.
Both Wednesday and Thursday will be fine and warm
The period may not though be entirely dry.
A weakening weather front on Friday...
Monday 2 June 2014, 17:17
Provisional figures from the Met Office indicate that spring this year across the UK has been the third warmest in records which date back to 1910.
It continues a run of warmer than average months which began in December of last year.
Rainfall this spring has been close to average across the UK – but May itself was very wet particularly across England, with 156% of average rainfall up to 28th May.
But what a huge contrast this is with spring 2013, which was the coldest across the UK since 1962, making it the 5th coldest since 1910.
March last year in particular was one of the snowiest...
Thursday 22 May 2014, 20:43
The warm spell of weather we have been enjoying since the middle of the month already seems like a distant memory, with low pressure now established across the UK.
Showers or longer spells of rain are likely at times for much of the rest of May.
But it’s not all doom and gloom for the Bank Holiday weekend.
Heavy thundery downpours are again expected to break out on Saturday, some of which could be prolonged, with drier, brighter spells in-between.
But on Sunday pressure will be slowly rising, suggesting that showers will be less widespread, with some areas seeing good spells of dry, bright...
Tuesday 13 May 2014, 16:26
After a spell of very unsettled weather, the jet stream is expected to move northwards in the next 24 hours, leading to a spell of fine and warm weather from Wednesday.
Computer models have recently been indicating that high pressure would become established across the UK around the middle of the month, with temperatures by Friday in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire reaching 21C (70F).
As usual the biggest area of uncertainty will be the longevity of the fine and warm weather.
Unfortunately current indications suggest that the early taste of summer will be a short lived one, with unsettled conditions...