- 8 Aug 08, 04:04 AM
Beijing
The two questions I have been asked most frequently during the run up to these Games are:
How many medals will the Great Britain swimming team get? And can America's Michael Phelps win all eight golds in the events he is competing in?
The answer to question one is, as all observant readers of my previous blogs will know, that we will get more finalists than before and take it from there.
Regarding the second query, Phelps is more than capable of bettering Mark Spitz's efforts at the 1972 Munich Games, but he will have to rely on US colleagues backing him up in the relays and not thwarting his efforts in the five individual events.
It's a lot to ask and the likes of Ryan Lochte, in the 200 metres and 400m individual medley, and Ian Crocker, the world record holder in the100m butterfly, both want their own piece, or pieces of Olympic glory.
Phelps could come a cropper as early as day two in the immaculate and imaginative Water Cube. Lochte has closed the gap on 'Superfish' in the 400 Individual Medley to such an extent that he was less than a second adrift at the recent American trials.
It sounds a lot but this time last year he was some three seconds slower than Phelps and the tousle haired 24-year-old from Daytona Beach has improved beyond recognition in 2008.
If Phelps survives that test, and the other potential banana skins along the way, and progresses intact until day eight there is the spectre of Crocker in the 100m butterfly.
Anyone who witnessed the final of that event at the World Championships in Melbourne last year will recall just how close that race was. Crocker had the race in the bag until the last split second.
Listening to the commentary of Karen Pickering and myself in real time, and watching the pictures on a slight satellite delay back at BBC Television Centre, Vassos Alexander and Mark Foster who were presenting our coverage for 5 Live Sports Extra, heard me call the race for Phelps and both cried in unison "no" as they couldn't believe the man from Baltimore had managed to get up in the last few metres to win it, but he had.
I asked Crocker whether he could beat Phelps this time. His response was characteristically dry. "We're getting closer to a tie!"
I wonder if that aside will prove to be prophetic. The two are very different characters, as Crocker acknowledged when I inquired as to whether they get on outside the pool. They share the same agent, but the similarities pretty much end there.
Phelps likes Eminem and rap music, Crocker, Bob Dylan and playing his guitar. Michael is into video games, Ian spends his time restoring his 1971 Buick Riviera and incidently, I discovered, is a huge fan of BBC2's 'Top Gear' and is probably Jeremy Clarkson's biggest fan Stateside...so if it doesn't work out for Ant and Dec!
Ok Bob, get off the fence can he or can't he do it? I think having to swim at least seventeen times, and possibly as many as twenty times over nine days is going to take its toll.
He is not a machine, no matter how well tuned he has been by coach extraordinaire Bob Bowman.
There is also the small matter of the 'Flying French' in the 4x100m freestyle, or 400m freestyle relay as the Americans will insist on calling it.
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The Gallic smirks of Alain Bernard, Fabien Gilot, Amaury Leveaux and Freddie Bousquet might be very visible on the third day.
So I wish Michael Phelps good luck, it would be churlish to do otherwise, but I concur with the view of Ian Thorpe that it might be just too Herculean a feat to pull off.
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Comments
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Bob, and the number of medals Britian will win in the pool? Can you list them to see how close you get?
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Bob,
I don't blame you for keeping quiet about team GB's medal hopes, I don't think there has ever been a harder meet to forecast!
I think we will achieve at least 4:
womens 400m free
womens 800m free
womens 4x100m medley
womens 4x200m free
I suspect Rebecca Adlington will take down the world record in the 800m free but it's just a question of whether Katie Hoff is in front of her at the time. We could do better, but in many events there are 5 or more medal candidates and the effect of morning finals could throw a spanner in the works.
Incidentally Bob, could you shed any light on the other nations, apart from team GB, that have practiced morning finals?
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Doc Kev
I think morning finals may suit us. Why?
When I think of games in recent memory, our swimmers tend to peak in the morning qualifiers posting best times that they don't replicate in the evening semi/ finals.
Here's hoping!
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Doc Kev,
I agree with your medal tally for GB. Could I add one other though that has a medal - Liam Tancock in 100m backstroke.
Come on you women's 200x4m GB free team as I managed to get them at 125/1 on Saturday with an on-line bookmaker - an extremely good value bet as all 4 ladies are world class. (They are now 16/1 by the way).
Steve
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Is that Eric the Eel bloke going again?
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Eric the Eel isn't going to be there. I think we could challenge for medals in the men's 1500m and also both open water events.
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I think a bronze in the 1500m from Davies would be possilbe. Theres no chance of gold as WR and ER respectivly holders Hackett and Prilukov both looking impressive.
I think Tancock could take a silver or bronze but behind ether Peirsol and Lochet, correct me if one didn't qualify.
Also how do we think Kris Gilchrist will do?
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Can anyone tell me why the chinese competitors wearing the speedo suit have the logo taped over, or have I missed something??
Also I spotted a sneaky Scottish Saltire in the crowd during the 4x100 ladies f/s relay
Thanks
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I am a huge fan of swimming and spent most of my childhood competing, but I have always lost heart in our sport.
I have to say I expected better from the BBC as a whole. Phelpes is a fantastic swimmer as we all know but isn't it about time we concentrated on our swimmers and our goals.
I used to swim for a club and loved the competition the only problem I had and always will is the backing behind the sport.
With the London 2012 coming up, shouldnt the government and the BBC be backing our team and upcoming swimmers to better themselves, rather than other contries, we know the americans are very good but what a way to make the britsh teams feel negative.
Its great that a lot of our swimmers qualified to be in the Olympics this year, but what an embaressment the Great British team is going to be when we fail to win medals on home ground.
I think great britain, the government and the BBC need a kick up the bottom to help increase our chances in 2012.
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I think that the only risk to Michael Phelps achieving his target are the relay events.
He achieved seven golds at the World Championships and holds individual world records in every event he is entering at these Olympics. Also, if he really swims the mind-blowing distance of 80,000 metres a week during training (quoted here - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/olympics/swimming/7541618.stm) then 17 races in 9 days would be a snip would it not?? Even if all 17 races were 400 metres in length, (which they obviously aren't) this would still only total 6,800 miles.
I say he can do it, once his relay team can back him up. Question is, can he go one help further and do what Spitz also reportedly did which is to win all of the events and break the World Record in every single event whilst doing so....
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To natsrobinson1988
As a fellow Brit, I agree but only to a point.
I think our athletes, with a few exceptions of course, generally struggle when the expectations of our country are constantly heaped upon them. They seem to perform 'beyond themselves' if that pressure isn't brought to bear by the media and everyone else. How free it must be to compete feeling like you have nothing to lose! Katie Hoff was the favourite for the race that yielded Adlington's gold, and it undoubtedly strengthened her resolve.
I think that as an event, the Olympics is full of exciting sports and the competitors that create a buzz and make history will naturally attract the lions share of attention and speculation. I don't think that this detracts from our own athletes' efforts though. In Phelps' case, I'm sure it will galvanise his direct competitors into trying harder to beat him and create a sensation.
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