Obamanomics
David Cameron repeats his message today that Britain cannot spend its way out of a recession.
In so doing, Labour wants to paint him as being isolated from the international consensus.
Most voters may not care that the French or the Japanese are in favour of a fiscal stimulus. What's more, they may accept the Tories' argument that they - unlike Britain - can afford to do it.
The biggest risk Cameron is taking is opposing what I call Obamanomics.
Economically, Obamanomics represents a belief in the need for governments to stimulate their economies with spending increases and tax cuts paid for by increases in borrowing.
Politically, it means a belief in big government and an emphasis on what politicians of the centre-left call fairness - as illustrated by promises to make the rich pay more tax.
The world's biggest celebrity - the soon-to-be President Obama - also stands for optimism and change.
Up until now, these have been the key elements of David Cameron's appeal. What is stake in this argument is that positioning.
Now, you may say: I can see how Gordon Brown is trying to position himself as politically and economically in step with Obama.
However, you may cry, surely Mr Brown will never ever be identified with optimism and change?
To which I merely reply that I can't help noticing that that's exactly what he is trying to do.
With Obama scheduled to dominate the news agenda in the New Year and due in London in the spring, Gordon Brown's goal is to prove that although David Cameron may be the young new candidate, he represents old, failed "do nothing" responses to recession.
Mr Cameron needs to find a way of avoiding that trap.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~23~RS~)
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no trap, Brown is wrong for the UK.
Time for fresh legs.
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Gordon Brown is like a mugger who offers me £5 before robbing me of £20- and then he wants me to be grateful!
When will this horrid Stalinist call an election?
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D Cameron's policies will ultimately lead to total economic disaster much worse than the big borrowing issues of Nu Lab
It's a shame as we need a competent opposition. Lid Dem get's my vote on economic issues.
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Well It would help a lot if the BBC became objective for once. Cameron is more likely to have his work cut out facing down the BBC who are insitutionally biased.
I wonder why you wrote the report the way you did, No mention of the Eurpean central bank rubbishing Gordon's plans, no mention of the Germans laughing at us.
.
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Five days of huge political issues and the best you can come up with is Obamanomics.
Change is what Obama represents Change is what Cameron represents and you "merely" reply with what Team GB want you to.
Nick you must do better than this. Please.
It is quite clear that you support "Big Government" and the veiwpoint that Brown walks on water
Your second paragraph is gramatically incorrect. you had just refered to what Cameron had said and then say in doing so Labour...
You say that Obama "also" stands for optomisim and change right after a paragraph refering to what in this country would be conssidered more of the same namely "Big government"
Finally Nick as the current incumbants in government voting for Labour cannot be a vote for change however you and Labour would like to spin it
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Nick it would be a good excercise for you to read Preston pdf on the economic crisis and who's fault it is and then STOP hailing Brown as the saviour of the world
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Gordon Brown's goal is to prove that although David Cameron may be the young new candidate, he represents old, failed "do nothing" responses to recession.
Yep. No doubt that will be his goal. Meanwhile Gordon Brown's 'do nothing' party will continue to borrow and spend as if the last eighteen months hadn't happened.
As if unemployment wasn't increasing at its fastest rate ever. As if house prices weren't collapsing at their fasted rate ever. As if the UK consumer wasn't the most debt-burdened in the known universe.
'Do nothing party' my backside. It is Gordon Brown who is 'taking the tough decisions' and 'doing the right thing'. Ie nothing. In total denial.
Bit of local difficulty. Just keep borrowing more money. It'll sort itself out. Pay it back some time in the future. How? When?
What do you mean 'How. When'. In the future.
You're just the 'do nothing party'.
'Do nothing party'
'Do nothing party'
'Do nothing party'
Ner ner ner ner ner. I'm not listening. You caaaaan't make me. Ner ner ner ner.
You're the 'don nothing party'
etc
etc
etc
And he considers himself a 'serious man for serious times'.
He's seriously gone in the head.
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You manage to avoid explaining or commentnig on David Cameron's economic proposals.
You manage to avoid mentioning the refusal of Germany to fall into line with Gordon Brown.
You manage to avoid explaining the fact, stated by your colleague Robert Peston, in The Times today, that (and I quote): "the contraction is highly likely to be more severe in the UK than almost anywhere else".
I repeat: "THE CONTRACTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE MORE SEVERE IN THE UK THAN ALMOST ANYWHERE ELSE".
Why? Surely we are best prepared according to our brilliant Prime Minister. I suggest, Nick, that there might be some proper stories out there.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7773476.stm
Talk about failed do nothing government.
One of the somethings Labour have done is to take away the double jeopardy rule hence one of these accused facing a fourth trail. total expense so far 22m
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Cameron's way out? Easy!
£15 billion of savings that have been identified by getting rid of some of these awful quangos
Scrap ID cards
There - that's about £20 billion - far greater than the rob and grab policies of Brown.
Cameron is absolutely right - we cannot afford this tax cut, and will be paying for it for years.
I don't also seem to remember Obama being elected as our PM - neither do I remember Brown come to think of it - and though we are a global economy, we have to look after ourselves as much as possible - which is exactly what Obama has also indicated he will be doing!!!!
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You are right that being 'optimistic' with brown in power is an impossible demand.
Brown is destroying our country - everything he does makes it worse, labour MPs don't care.
Whats there to be optimistic about?
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You wrote: "David Cameron repeats his message today that Britain cannot spend its way out of a recession."
Perhaps I'm missing something; as far as I can see, that is not what was reported by BBC News. Did David Cameron not say that because the Labour Government has borrowed so much already, the UK economy would be at risk if the Goverment borrowed further? Did he not mean that the country should not spend its way out of this recession?
David Cameron referred to the fact that the heads of the International Monetary Fund had said a fiscal stimulus "is a good idea if you can afford it". My interpretation is he was saying that, because of the actions of Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling over the past 11 years, the country can't afford to borrow any more.
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"...Labour wants to paint him as being isolated from the international concensus.."
Well, except Germany, possible the only country capable of spending it's way out of the recession. They think it's madness to continue to borrow money to pour down the black hole....
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Brown has just shackled any form of opposition to ensure that he can claim other parties are do nothing parties.
How can anyone do anything any more when this government has just made our parliament impotent.
We are at the present time controlled by a one party executive.
They can do just about anything they want whether it's right or wrong.
A very depressing state of affairs when the country needs the best we've got.
Obama is fresh and new and has the charisma to take the people with him regardless.
Brown is just old hat.
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Barak Obama had better have the pick of CIA operatives guarding nothing but his arse when he comes over here, otherwise half of parliament will end up up there.
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A, "one size fits all global policy," is Gordon Brown`s only answer to the current economic downturn in the Uk. Our problems are very different form the rest of the world. He has done his reputation no good by claiming otherwise. Brown`s world tours seem to have come to a standstill as his "fellow" leaders appear to have rumbled him at last.
Gordon Brown`s sole aim is to encourage the great british public, by every means possible, to go on spending more and more by borrowing even more and more; which is why we got into this mess in the first place.
Gordon Brown does not have a clue what to do next. None of what he has done so far has worked. The vat cut was a total disaster. People naturally spend far more at this time of this year so what in heaven`s name was the point of reducing vat by 2.5%. That was the single most clearest case yet of him throwing good money after bad. We would have been better off if he left vat at 17 1/2%.
Obama may be able to walk on water at the moment; but it does not mean his policies are the right ones. He has yet to take up his appointment. Brown and Cameron are dealing with the here and now.
In the long run David Cameron will be proved right. We cannot spend our way out of this mess. Collectively we have too much debt. If you are overspent you do not continue to borrow - you stop spending, make good your capital base then resume spending when you are in a financially secure position to do so. Hard it maybe; but that is the only way out of this debacle.
Gordon Brown is clearly grand standing and is looking to a General Election taking place very soon in the New Year. However, no one is going to be thanking him when they finally wake up to the size of this country`s debt. Paying it back will have consequences for years to come - with a poorer standard of living, poorer public services etc etc.
Unfortunatley all of this is just mirroring the legacies of past Labour governments. I don`t know of one Labour Govt when it left power, left this country`s balance sheet in good order.
Why they are so fisically inept heaven knows. It just seems to be in their nature.
Spend now - repay later and damn the consequences; because we won`t be around to pick up the pieces seems to be Labour`s take on government.
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I noticed Cameron speech the Cameron speech subtly warning people not to spend. Because there may be tax rises to pay for in the future. Or more likely trying to scare people out of spending, to make sure the economy can't improve and he gets into No.10. He doesn't have to worry for 5 years after that.
to U9461192 re his outrage over Labour trolling on the last blog.
On the last blog you mentioned Labour Trolls apparently using diversionary techniques and manipulating the media. Yet Whenever there is a negative story about the tories on,we get comments like this one from.megapoliticaljunkie@4
"Well It would help a lot if the BBC became objective for once. Cameron is more likely to have his work cut out facing down the BBC who are insitutionally biased."
and we also get a McCarthy witch hunt on whether Nick Robinson Is a New Labour spy on the payroll of Alistair campbell or peter mandleson. How many of these will we get on this blog?
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More than anything, Obama symbolises change and renewal.
More than anything, Brown symbolises the same old same old Nu Labour shambles that got us into this mess.
Cameron happens to be absolutely right that "The government is putting the British economy at risk with its 'borrowing binge' ".
But that is secondary, as personally I'd vote for a pig's head on a stick rather than ever vote for Gordon Brown.
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Nick,
I think you've spent too long in the Westminster bubble. The average man on the street isn't interested in Obamanomics. I'm sure the new President will fascinate some, if only as a novelty, but their interest will soon wane.
It is the state of the BRITISH economy that will determine the next election and here Brown is on weak ground. His Chancellor has just forecast that economy will begin to recover in the second quarter of 2010 - if it does, Labour have a chance - if it doesn't, they'll get hammered. Simple!
BTW why haven't you commented on the German dimension to this story? Mrs Merkel (SP?) has blown a big hole in Brown's - all the major nations of the world are following my lead - narrative. If the German recovery is stronger than Britain's (as forecast by both the IMF & the EU) then won't it be Brown who has the explainning to do?
Remember Nick - balance. The future holds potential pitfalls for BOTH major political parties. Not just the Tories.
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At 2:57pm on 09 Dec 2008, Pot_Kettle wrote:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7773476.stm
Talk about failed do nothing government.
One of the somethings Labour have done is to take away the double jeopardy rule hence one of these accused facing a fourth trail. total expense so far 22m
---------------------------------------------
Sorry, this is just wrong.
The additional trials have nothing whatsoever to do with the removal of the double jeopardy rule. The removal of the double jeopardy rule only applies to people who are found NOT GUILTY of an offence. If there is new and compelling evidence which arises later, the CPS has to apply to the Court of Appeal to quash the original acquittal before there can be a new trial.
If a trial collapses for some reason (i.e. there is no verdict either way) then the prosecution can ask for a retrial. This was the case under the previous Tory government.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7773022.stm
I urge you to read this and tell me what you think about Tessa Jowells ramblings.
"So far the budget is on time and within budget," Say what?
"At this stage, I would not revise down our expectation for final cost... the use of contingency should not be seen as any kind of failure. It is very often the means by which the trade-off between time and cost can be properly accomplished." What?
"Headroom is being created within the contingency because risks that were costed are risks which, at this stage, have not materialised." er but surely they are still risks that could in all likelyhood materialise
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David Cameron is being quoted on the BBC website at present...
'The government is putting the British economy at risk with its £20bn "borrowing binge", says David Cameron. '
What is he on about? The government is putting the UK economy at risk with a 500bn quid borrowing binge. To add to the 350bn it has binged on over the last decade.
20bn quid borrowing binge? If only.
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Nick,
You wrote, Now, you may say: I can see how Gordon Brown is trying to position himself as politically and economically in step with Obama.
Bless you.
It would have meant just as much as if you had not used the full colon.
I certainly do say you can see how Gordon Brown is repositioning himself as you could be his speech writer, valet and major domo given the bias of your BBC reporting in favour of the Labour government and its policies!
Perhaps you could tell us all the date of the planned General Election that Gordon Brown is going to spring on us next year?
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The removal of the double jeopardy rule only applies to people who are found NOT GUILTY of an offence.
Yep. Its for political opponents. People like that.
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Nick,
The IMF and the OECD are in accord, Britain can't AFFORD to spend it's way out of recession!
Crash Gordon knows no other way, more government, brought forward capital projects, more complicated benefits, need I go on?
Cameron knows the country wants LESS government, less beaurocrats, less quangos and a 'bite the bullet' approach to the mess we are in.
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The one thing Cameron fears is a quick election. Although people do not want Brown as PM Cameron fears that they will vote for him if they think that the economy is the only issue. So Cameron's main ploy is to delay an election. How does he do it? Well, he demands an early election. The more emphatically number 10 says that he is too busy sorting out the economy, the less possible an early election becomes.
If in 18 months everything seems gloomy because the economy is still in a mess then Cameron will get a landslide.
As for the question has Brown got the right policy, there are convincing arguments on both sides. No one knows for sure, so we will just have to wait until 2011 or 2012. However if indications of an improving economy can be demonstrated by 2010, then Cameron's political gamble of changing his mind and advocating an alternative policy, will show that however good his other policies seem, the economy is not safe in his hands.
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Until the problems have worked themselves through the system then there is nothing too be done. Other than having some safety nets to break the fall for individuals. When the dust has settled then we can see where we need to go. Currently we are in the ?phoney war?, things will really hit us in 2009, job losses & because of the weak pound a large rise in the cost of imported goods.
24 News demands instant responses, Gordon is responding, too early and as will all his forecasts too optimistically, VAT was planned to go to 18 or 20% when we will be in the bottom of the hole just before the election. Was it the hole or the election that stopped that?
Who was it that said when in a hole stop digging and we have been borrowing too much and the solution is to borrow even more? How does that work?
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@20
I apologise 22Million quid well spent then
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Nick
Your reports are getting more and more ridiculous!
I think Mr Brown's position is far more precarious. People are not spending money as he had hoped they would. The stores have reported that their figures are down on last year. No surprise there - jobs are being lost and people are reluctant to spend what they may need in a few month's time.
Trying to elevate Gordon in the eyes of the electorate, by associating him with Obama's success isn't going to work either.
Can't you try reporting the facts as they are - just for once? Please.
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It's sad how people call bias on anything that isn't completely in step with what their tabloid of choice is spewing.
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Lets be honest The G20 summit only said inflate if you afford it. The head of the European bank said the same.
The problem that Brown has is that if he doesn't inflate he would have to admit that it was him that put Britain in this dire position.
It is after all only Brown who still maintains that Britain will have "shorter and shallower deflation" that any other country. They are after all expecting it to end in the 3rd quarter of 2009, i.e. July if the PBR of 2 weeks ago is to be believed.
The man either knows something the rest of us don't or is deluded.
Bring in the IMF, that's how Labour Governments end.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
There is NO JUSTIFICATION for trusting
GORDYs ECONOMIC POLICIES.
The results of the last eleven years are the
PROOF.
Its impossible foir the opposition either
The Conservatives or the Lib Dems to put
forward any policy other than rough
intentions untill they see the books
WHICH BROWN IS DESPERATE TO HIDE.
I wonder how many more LEAKERS will be
harassed by the Police to prevent the
Opposition hold the Government to account.
WE ARE IN AN ERA OF POWER AT ANY COST
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17. dhwilkinson
"..Because there may be tax rises to pay for in the future.."
There's no *may* about it mate.
*WHEN*
Brown taxed, spent and borrowed to to the hilt when times were good. Now tax receipts have plummeted and he's borrowed more. If I were you, I would fasten my seat belt...
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It's not just Cameron who needs to avoid that trap - Browns plan is a disaster for the UK, borrowing with no plans how to pay it off.
The amount of debt is frightening, and the market has responded with faith in the UK being able to replay it's debts falling badly.
If Browns plan goes forward, the UK will make Japan's 'Lost Decade' look like an economic boomtime in comparison.
We've already seen, with the conflicting demands Brown's making of banks, that he either doesn't fully grasp the fiscal setup, or is prepared to ignore it for political reasons (spin in other words) at a time we need serious statesmen, not weaselly oneupmanship.
And his efforts to remove the BoE reports (it's in the Banking Bill, see Guido's blog) gives lie to his claims of wanting increasing transparency.
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A reason that the Conservatives can try and hinder the recovery by scaring people away from spending for electoral gain. Is that we have a two party system where only the Conservatives can replace Labour.
There is nobody to turn to against the Conservatives negative and damaging way they like to win elections. Unless the Lib dems can get their act together stop being an inoffensive version Tory party. a Lego Tory party with a Lego Cameron as leader.
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Your article is very glib but it does not stand up to even a cursory analysis.
The argument is not between doing something and doing nothing. It is between doing what is wrong and what is right. It is between doing something that gives a quick political gain but is wrong for the country in the longer term and proposing something that may count against you in the polls in the short term but is right for the country in the longer term.
Also, it is absolutely crazy to try to claim, as Labour is doing, that the right way to get out of the massive debt caused by over-spending is to spend yet more so getting into even more debt.
As for the young/old argument, Obama is untried. He may do well. He may flop. Brown is not untried. He has been around for 11 years and been found wanting.
Some of us are old enough to remember the mess created by the Wilson/Callaghan administrations and can see history repeating itself.
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I've got it!!!!
Cameron needs to educate the voters into what borrowing 500bn (on top of the 350bn Brown has already borrowed) actually means.
It means that (provided the Chinese and Arabs are actually stupid enough to buy the 500bn in bonds he's proposing to issue) we will actually be working to pay interest to the Chinese and the Arabs.
We will be indentured slaves of the Chinese and Arabs.
Next time Brown gives it the 'Do nothing party'
Cameron should give it 'Party of slavery'.
Oh yes!!!
Now there's imagery to take to the polls.
Oh Yessssss.
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Nick,
I almost didn't recognise you without the film-set make-up, but your voice still comes clearly through the blog.
So we must all kow-tow to the putative ecomonic policies of an untried and untested president elect, who may or may not be able to rescue his country from the disastrous legacy bequeathed by the present incumbent?
Against this imaginative construct we hold up the prime minister who managed to do the very opposite as chancellor - steadily deconstruct a stable economy inherited from Ken Clarke.
What are "tax cuts paid for by an increase in borrowing", and where the real cuts anyway (ignoring the messy reduction in VAT)?
I doubt if Keynes would have approved of wasteful schemes such as ID Cards etc. as a job creation stimulus - Cross Rail perhaps, but that would be too useful.
I'm no supporter of Cameron, but the profligacy of Brown frightens me - however you try to dress it up.
Obamanomics? Barmy economics, if you ask me.
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As ususal people moaning on about BBC bias.
If that was the case then those moaning would not have their comments approved.
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Nick,
if you are going to go all yankee on us then at least point out that some commentators are saying that Obama is tilting towards the political centre.
I refer to the International Herald Tribune which has ponted out that his appointments have drawn praise from the likes of the republican political strategist Karl Rowe and the conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh.
So if Gordon does follow Obama then he will actually become more conservative and upset the left. A left which is just waiting to take over. This could be quite an interesting new year.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Even another article today on the Beeb contradicts this blog from the CML and Brown's failing policies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7772873.stm
The worrying thing is that some estate agent thinks we're nearing the bottom. I think we are a long way from the bottom, things could get really nasty in 2009/10. Government is going to have to shrink as the tax receipts will not be there - either that or our debt will be so huge we will be sunk and worse than Italy.
Basic economics suggests Brown is wrong. The fact remains that tax receipts are down. Keynes may have been interesting for a small downturn but he doesn't hold the solutions for a longer deeper recession.
We will have massive inflation in coming years as the amount of paper being printed is ridiculous. This will lead to hyper inflation in a deflating economy.
No more boom and bust though!
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Frank Castle post 35
Japans Lost DECADE
We will have a LOST GENERATION PAYING
BACK DEBT.
THANKS GORDY
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@37 DWW
"Some of us are old enough to remember the mess created by the Wilson/Callaghan administrations and can see history repeating itself. "
I agree
I would be very surprised if anyone over 40 votes Labour next time around.
Everyone of that age must remember the bitter pill that the first Thatcher government was compelled to give us to deal with the previous administrations financial incompetance.
I hope that Cameron is up to dishing out the tough love that is needed this time around and i also hope that the public will understand why and give them a second term so that we dont have to go through the red blue red blue 70's again.
Anyone that has an eye on history will know that was this countries darkest decade.
30 years on from Wilson/Callaghan and we have the same scenario playing out again.
I wonder if Brown wakes every morning wondering if today is the day that the IMF come knocking
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#36
A reason that the Conservatives can try and hinder the recovery by scaring people away from spending for electoral gain.
Wow. Somebody has been at the Labour glue again.
So the Conservatives, by countenancing fiscal responsibility are hindering the 'recovery'. If only more people would go out and borrow more money and buy more Chinese tat they don't need then everything would be marvellous again.
Give me strength.
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Very poor reporting from the BBC, heavily biased in my opinion.
I never thought I would hear myself saying it but it looks like i'll be voting tory at this rate, the sooner the better too. How can anyone trust a man that bites his nails? Brown has no control over himself so why should we trust him?
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No Nick it is Labour who are the 'do nothing' party - the only thing they know how to do is how to spend, they can 'do nothing' else, and they won't stop until UK is totally bankrupt or they are voted out (that is if it is possible to vote them out with our rigged postal voting system).
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but the whole cause of this crisis was people borrowing money that they can't afford to pay back.
Is Gordon Brown really suggesting that the way out of a crisis caused by debt, is to give the whole country a huge debt?
That approach doesn't make sense, and contrary to what the media would have us believe, the conservative party under David Cameron have come up with a different approach. It's not don't do anything, it's don't throw good money after bad.
Gordon Brown took us into this mess, and now he's going to take us deeper.
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Does Nick Robinson still exist? I haven't seen him on TV, or heard from him on radio for days. It seems to me that he may have been sucked up into some dire alien ship and that these are the echoes of his former self being played out by some ghost writer.
Bring Nick back on to our screens / radio programmes forthwith and I might, just might, believe that he authored this dire piece of journalism.
In the meantime, perhaps I could be permitted to point out that if all you ever do is parrot the Labour 'Do Nothing' accusations against the opposition without ever considering whether the accusation holds water, then don't be surprised if that is what the public begin to accept. If you honestly believe that the policies on the economy being suggested by Cameron and Osborne amount to nothing, then heaven help us all.
Oh and by the way, what if anything is your view of the effective sidelining of the Speaker in yesterday's vote? Do you have anything to offer on this? No.
Why do we bother?
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It is such a pity that too few people have experienced the Tory reaction to recession before. It not only lacked compassion, it also lacked common sense and any form of creativity. They effectively let things run their course and took virtually no positive action to get things moving. It was as if they were totally detached from reality - which they were, and would appear to be now.
The 'lure of Lamont' beckons...misery, deprivation, reposession, bankruptcy...all a 'price worth paying'...for other people that is. This is true Conservatism.
David Cameron and Her Majesty's Opposition (Larry Lightweight and the sixth form debating society) are becoming more unattractive as every day passes...but showing their true colours beautifully!
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Nick
Great to see you are back on line!!
You've obviously had enough of 'Greengate,' but your thoughts on yesterday's debate and vote would be interesting. You are after all the political correspondant!
Today, two parliamentary committees have gone against the government's wishes and launched their own independent enquiries: isn't this unique? What does it tell us about MPs satisfaction with yesterday's government motion, I wonder?
On to economics: I actually think Cameron is being exceptionally brave.
He is facing up to the issues in our economy and telling the truth as he sees it. It's a pretty horrible truth, and it won't endear him to many who would no doubt rather put their heads in the sand. It won't in my view be a vote winner, or make him popular. Labour will no doubt label him 'nasty' as well as 'do nothing.'
However, over time he will be proven right and people will recognise and respect that.
You quote Obama: it's going to be very interesting. He was elected on a ticket for change promising - don't forget this - middle class tax cuts. Brown has not offered this: quite the opposite in 12 months' time, in fact: Brown has promised tax rises (NI etc).
In reality, Obama finds his tax cutting room for manoeuvre increasingly bare, despite the enormous advantages the US government has over the UK when issuing and sustaining very high levels of debt, given the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, etc.
I respect Obama hugely and was delighted he won. He may well be smart enough to say when he arrives: 'things are worse than I thought; to get through this, we're all going to have to behave responsibly; tax cuts right now just wouldn't be responsible; we need to reduce the federal deficit before we can cut taxes, but when we can taxes, we will.'
Don't forget, Obama has 4 years to play with: if he gets spending under control early, he will more than likely have room to cut before going to the polls.
And if this does happen, where will that leave Brown?
The story next year - and we're already seeing indications of it in the recent data - is that the UK economy is going to be in even worse shape than Brown's recent budget anticipated, and government borrowing is going to soar well above even those appalling scenarios.
What will you be saying of Cameron's warning then?
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#45 pot_kettle
I wonder if Brown wakes every morning wondering if today is the day that the IMF will come knocking?
Shouldn't think so for one minute. He's probably smiling every day - after all, he's got a very secure future ahead of him...unlike the rest of us!
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The thing is, Obama will be dead in the water as soon as Americans start seeing it's a whole lot easier to talk the talk than walk the walk.
Barack Obama is vacuous and will soon be deeply unpopular in America. He's just run around saying "Yes, we can" over and over again until the quarterwits in the States believed him.
What did George W Bush's fiscal stimulus in 2001 do other than store up debt problems that have laid waste to the global economy several years hence?
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Gordon Brown is mentally not fit-for-purpose for the job.
It's a shame that sycophantic journalists continue to espouse that he is the saviour to all the problems.....that HE created.
In fact it's more than a shame, it's a disgraceful drain on the TV Tax to employ middlemen like Robinson, when we could just employ Campbell and Mandelson and they could write the blog themselves.
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Ah, So the do nothing leader, of the do nothing party, hold a press conference, to out-line his intent.
Which of course was "DO NOTHING"
Aint politics interesting!
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oh no barker is back with his 80s Ben Elton politics.
grow up.
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"The biggest risk Cameron is taking is opposing what I call Obamanomics."
Obamanomics will be the printing of billions of dollars. Obama will get away with that as the dollar is a Reserve Currency.
We would not, so that policy should be opposed.
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Obanomics as you call it calls for widespread support of the US manufacturing sector and services sector. Thanks to Brown's shortsightedness and incompetence Britain only has a service sector (financial services) that is falling apart. Ironically what remains of the car industry in the UK depends on the US bailing out the big 3 carmakers in the US - Ford, General Motors (Vauxhall) and Chrysler.
Nick you and the BBC reporting are also quite naughty in not emphasising the terms of the repayments of the government loans that the UK banks have to repay. 12 percent in the UK but only 5 percent in the US. And you then wonder in all innocence why banks are reluctant to lend commercially at 2 percent! Under these terms ALL the British banks would be bankrupt in SIX months. If that happened business confidence would be killed off - would the alst person to leave the room, please switch off the lights...
I also get the feeling from the American press (Washington Post, NY Times etc - their reports are really good btw) that Obama is not at all impressed with those he holds responsible for the current economic mess. He also dislikes politicians who proclaim themselves as world saviours - ring any bells? Another difference betwen the UK and the US is that an enormous investment in infrastructure is required in the US. New Orleans has not fully recovered, many road bridges built in the 1930's are falling apart and something that is overlooked quite often is that poverty levels are higher than they should be.
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I don't think many in this country are remotely interested in Obama or his onics.
Stay close to nurse for fear it will get worse is how some voters feel about Brown. Better the devil they know.
However, I am convinced deep down most people have some insecurity about his spendthrift policy and that it is all one hell of a gamble.
Meanwhile David will learn to earn his spurs. All this is giving him time to plan his strategy and he IS a strong forthright person no matter what some people say. He will sit well with Obama, similar ages for one thing.
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This government believes in the " keep doing it even if it doesn't work," philosophy, 'cos it might work sometime." Brown, Darling and the rest of the sychphants who keep Nu Labour in power have now lost all credibility. Even the lovely Merkel has now realised that throwing good "borrowed " money after bad is stupidity of the highest degree.
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'....People shouldn't kid themselves into thinking that past spending levels are sustainable. Diminishing tax inflows cannot be replaced with ever rising levels of public sector borrowing in order to sustain spending levels that are simply not sustainable indefinitely : Investor appetite for government debt is not limitless and the more we borrow the more the premium for new debt we will have to pay. We need to guard against this ? otherwise we will be propelled into a downward spiral where rising borrowing costs have to be met by even deeper spending cuts: The reality is that over coming years the current levels of public spending will have to be pruned and pruned hard....'
From your local Tory MP?
Think again.
Charlie McCreevey
European Commissioner for Internal Market & Services
Part of his speech to the Association of European Journalists today in Dublin.
So much for Obamanomics, Nick. RIP.
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"My-Pet-dragon wrote:
As ususal people moaning on about BBC bias.
If that was the case then those moaning would not have their comments approved."
No that would be censorship, it is possible to be biased towards something but still allow opposing viewpoints, our entire concept of government is based upon that simple fact.
The Speaker of the House of Commons would have a natural bias (they tend to be elected from one of the two main parties) however they still allow debate.
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Nick,
if the BBC and Nulab keep repeating the "do nothing party" mantra there is a chance people will begin to swallow it. Mr Cameron is right to question the affordability of Nulabs more borrow, spend and tax solution and to call an election. It is high time for fresh thinking and a clear out of this democracy stifling paraphernalia.
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Um, am I missing something?
"David Cameron repeats his message today that Britain cannot spend its way out of a recession"
True, I didn't actually hear what Cameron said AND I am relying on the BBC's story (foolish, I know), but DC appears to have said that he won't match the government's spending plans and he doesn't think its a good idea to borrow to get out of recession.
So, which is it? Nick's view or the main story? There is a (ever so slight) difference between not spending your way out of recession and not sticking to the government's plans.
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Thank you for your kind contribution, Mr Postgate. Things have got no better since.
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I hear a lot of talk about change but very little about what "change" actually means. But, change is the stuff of Zen Buddhism ? change is about change within the world and the self, about accepting change around you as well as within. Now, here's a subtle thing: the Anglo-Saxon view suggests that change is something we make happen, but the more Eastern view is that change is something we allow to happen. Likewise, many people view change as being something in the world that has to change but rarely consider it may be themselves that need to change. Change can be a scary thing as old certainties and self-images crumble but what is crumbling? Ideally, delusion as one hare-brained scheme after another bites the dust and only reality, whatever that is, remains.
I also hear a lot of talk about people doing something versus people doing nothing. Well, "doing something" and "doing nothing" aren't necessarily what people think they are. Again, this is an issue of presentation versus substance. In the Taoist sense, doing something is just the ego flexing its muscles while doing nothing is a hands free following of the optimal line. The words "something" and "nothing" are merely labels that obscure more than they reveal. The secret isn't to do too much, such as Cameron's claims that the fiscal stimulus is not enough, or to do too little, such as Cameron's idea to throw everything to the market. Perhaps, this is why the Prime Minister's minimal fiscal stimulus and talking up green shoots looks more appealing to me. It acknowledges reality but helps create the conditions for us to roll through this crisis and come out in better shape than we went in.
I don't run my opinions past Obama's or Cameron's worldview, so what they think or what position they might wish to claim is neither here nor there. Sure, I can identify with the Prime Minister on a personal level because we have similar rare personality types, and that can be seen in echoes of policy and personality but, what? I've kept it quiet but my interest in politics has been nuked over the past few months and who cares what the "smart mob" thinks. Yeah, we've got a recession on but I've got some stuff fixed in my own life and some external stress has lifted, and I FEEL GOOD. Yeah, baby. Rockin'. Well, let's not get carried away. I feel fine. No, I FEEL GOOD. And Gordon Brown makes me feel happy cuz he does. So there, nyeh.
You've got Cameron nailed on that one. I had some more comment but nuked it as I've said it all before.
I've been thinking about other stuff today and was struck with the image that Cameron is just another bathroom singer: he looks good at the bully pulpit but is no good in the real world. Instead of fueling "THE RAGE", I thought it might be worth just laughing at the guy and it's one thing the Tories can't stick on Gordon Brown.
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Nick
Please go for a walk outside of Westminster village for 5 minutes and you will see that the real people think (I mean the ones that pay taxes not the ones that are on benefits and that will never work as long as they can avoid it ).
They do not have more money to spend , if they spend it is because the high street is slashing prices by 50%. They are really worried about the extra taxes they will have to pay after the elections. More pain for very little gains for middle England.
Whoever wins the next elections is in for a seriously rough and unpopular ride.
As much as I would hate to see Brown ( or the dodgy Lord to be exact) in charge for an extra 4 years it would be a small price to pay to get rid of ZANULabour for ever.
They created the Brown stuff let them get their hands dirty to clear it !!!
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Derek, sorry Prime Minister . . .
What about the proposed National Loan Guarantee Scheme to ensure banks lend to small businesses? What about cutting spending on ID cards and other waste we don't want? What about . . .
I could go on, but I daren't disagree with you too much . . . O no, I can hear sirens in the background . . . I think the police are coming this way . . .
Prime Minister, I'm really sorry. I really am. Of course, I believe you. Yes, the Tories would do nothing. Honest . . .
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The overwhelming anti-Brown consensus on this blog is matched by the mood in my work-place (private-sector, electronics), which is that Brown squandered us into this mess, and we, the private sector, will be impoverished for a generation at least getting out of it. If spending money we haven't got was a good policy, we wouldn't be in this mess now, would we ?
The only solution is a MASSIVE, and permanent, cut in public-sector spending. Better that the unproductive bureaucrats go on the dole than the productive ( and realistic) people who generate what little wealth gets created in the uk.
Remember, all Labour governments end in financial disaster.
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#42
Don't be unkind, you know there's a race which has problems with mirrors...
#45 see my #70.
In general, if anyone wants to see what things have been reduced to, read Bob Peston's blog too. Hail to the Chief...
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As far as I can see President Elect Obama - with no previous experience in the matter - intends to see America through this crisis by spending money on the Infrastructure. This plan will increase America's National debt by £2,000,000,000,000 to £12,000,000,000,000.
There is no indication that America can repay this debt (other than by inflation). When the major bondholders feel that they may be unable to service the debt then the rush to the exits will be a sight to behold - probably most of American industry and property will be bought up by Middle and Far Eastern Countries.
The same could well happen in the UK. For your information the trade balance continues to deteriorate - the figures means that each person in the UK has £600 less to spend in the economy this month than last month - the only way we can keep up the same level of spending is - you guessed it - to borrow.
My recovery plan would be for the Government to use its dwindling resources to protect our manufacturers/ exporters with finance through the Northern Rock bank and remove support for our retailers. As the economy shrinks fewer people will be in the retail/ service sections of the economy (wealth distributers), however targeting the manufacturers will help turn this economy again into one of wealth creation and one that can trade profitably with the rest of the world.
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As I have said before doing nothing in the face of recession is at least a strategy.
This is far more of a policy than anything produced by Brown's government which seems to want to hose down their client vote with taxpayer funds and savers' deposits.
What you are telling us is that if this government has a strategy, it is get Gordon re-elected at any price.
The Conservatives problem is that Cameron is all presentation and Osbourne lacks the forensic skills to take Labour economic policy to pieces.
We need to get rid of this ghastly government as quickly as possible before it does for us all. The problem is that the alternative is not very convincing at the moment.
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Nick
If DC made a statement about coping with the recession, would the BBC actually report it? Or would the public be led to believe that nothing was being done?
I did notice that the Debate in the Commons yesterday was very low on the News list. Surely this can't be right...!!
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37. At 3:59pm on 09 Dec 2008, dwwonthew wrote:
"Some of us are old enough to remember the mess created by the Wilson/Callaghan administrations and can see history repeating itself. "
As they say in the Borders: it's aye bin - ie it's always been that way, for those needing translation ;)
It's occurred to me that when Mr Brown said: "No more boom and bust", he was in fact speaking the exact and literal truth. What he meant was: "I'm going to send this country into so deep a bust that there'll never be a chance of another boom."
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What happened to my comments on your 5 day disappearance? Just winding up for the big finish, when my computer went off-line. Very mysterious and conveniant although I do not consider myself in any way a threat to anybody amd really of no important in the big world out there.
From comment No.50 onwards, I am one of many commenting on you failure to comment on the happenings in parliament - nothing as far as you are concerned.
You ended on 03.12.08 and re-commence on 09.12.08 with attacks on Cameron; I am not his greatest fan but cannot cope with inequity in any form.
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#73 bluntjeremy
Very, very well put.
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What a surprise. Five days absent, then ostrich like, the Green/Martin/Police matters have been solved, as far as this blog is concerned.
Unsurprisingly I am not the only one to have noticed this. Why have you adopted this ;policy towards a very serious matter? After your blog on 3rd December, conspicuous by your abence, now back resuming Tory attacks on 9th December. Not I might add on the matter in hand, but now taking over from Mr. Peston on economics.
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Fantastic
One of the biggest rows in the house this week and we get this shrewd analysis.
A classic public sector effort.
Youve been on a beach and sent this in by text.
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Cameron is right in that spending your way out of recession is not possible. The whole international community will have to come to accept that there has now been a reset in how value is perceived and created in the global economy and until this reset is complete throwing money at 'the problem' actually only continues to dig the old hole deeper. What is true is that no politician yet understands what the new rules are - not surprising as they have yet to evolve. Fiscal stimulus may help the new paradigms accelerate but timing will be everything and the right time is still a long way off. Only when the issues of recession are clearly felt and understood will the new answers become obvious. This is the legacy of past failures that we have inherited from our failed leaders and captains of industry and finance worldwide. It is essential that we do not pass our generations failings and debts down the generations.As it is our children will inevitably pay for our recent follies. The new way forward will both astound in its simplicity and confound in its challenges. Lets try and keep the consequences of the transition to a humane and acceptable level.
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#73
Glad to hear that you've embraced "CHANGE"
Aint life easier, when you understand the plan!
Sarkozy, also understands "change"
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Nick
Why are you repeating this ridiculous 'do nothing' mantra invented by the Labour spin doctors? When did any government 'do nothing' in a recession? 'Doing nothing' is pure Labourspeak. The Conservative party has given many suggestions to combat this crisis but you and the rest of the BBC are choosing not to listen. That's not Cameron's fault. It does not behove you as a journalist to take sides like this and regurgitate this rubbish. Why can't the BBC write a balanced article showing both sides of the argument, setting out what each of the main parties would do?
Look guys Frau Merkel is right.
There's no point in doing something for the sake of doing something.
Borrowing more money and using discredited Keynesian stimuli is suicide. The pound will slump (if not collapse) inflation will rocket and we will be paying back our excess for much longer than we need to.
Gordo will destroy this country if we let him. The more I see him the more I am convinced that he is mentally ill. I'm being serious.
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That won't create innovation out of thin air and will have shock effect on the economy. But, that's the problem with folks who don't look beyond the numbers and admiring themselves in the mirror. The world is bigger than that (and you) and it's something worth learning.
It's difficult to put it any kinder than that but it's easier than learning it the hard way.
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57. derekbarker
Derek if you listened to the debate last week you would have heard what Cameron would do.
He named 5
Can you remember 1?
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Oh, Did anyone mention Frau Merkel and the new stimulus for Germany!
Ouch! after all, you cant just do nothing and let those fantastic German cars go to the wall, with the do nothing plan!
Get up to date! Jonno #88
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Mental fitness is a sliding scale and can change from moment to moment. Most people have some form of mental illness. Indeed, a badly formed thought is by definition a mental illness. Since first mentioning this to a friend who was training to be a psychiatrist someone, later, was awarded a PhD on that topic.
I've nearly commented more than once (including today) on Cameron's mental fitness but don't want to slide into some "me too" or "tit for tat" argument. There's degrees of lurid and negativity I don't want to be drawn into and would prefer discussion was kept on a more informative and agreeable basis in any case.
Personality type is, mostly, just a specialisation. Some people are better at some things than others, and our personality types colour what we do and how we perceive the world around us. Once this clicks a lot of things fall into place, and we can be better equiped to know ourselves and the world around us.
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#90
Carrots, why should Britain steer a course of letting the crisis run its length (do nothing) when the rest of the world is doing something to stimulate their economies?
I would have thought that your induced rate of carrots, would improve your eye sight! STOP, LOOK ,LISTEN!
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Nick you begin by tellling, about Cameron. that -
- - Labour wants to paint him as being isolated from the international consensus.
You may have well continued - I'm here to help them.
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Unfortunately, neither of the two main parties in this country offer change or renewal.
New Labour represented by the older Gordon Brown is simply firefighting to save his reputation. The government, meanwhile, are churning out the same old tabloid-pleasing (yes, that includes The Mail) policies.
David Cameron doesn't offer renewal or change simply because he's young. The fact is he's finally 'come out' as a nasty Tory and hoping the tabloids will love him for it.
These are two politicians in political parties that are happy to stay bogged down in the past - they have no intention of taking a risk and changing.
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Referring to Obama as "the world's biggest celebrity", that's a sly cheap shot Mr Robinson, or should I call you "Britain's least favourite Conservative paid for with our TV-Licence money"?
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I'll be happier when certain 'rare personality types' become extinct - at least in the political arena.
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"So the Conservatives, by countenancing fiscal responsibility are hindering the 'recovery'."
Thats easy for you to say!
"If only more people would go out and borrow more money and buy more Chinese tat they don't need then everything would be marvellous again.
I think it was more about Government borrowing for public spending for investment to keep people in work. Encouraging people to spend to buy 'tat' or new Clothes,TV, Computer or DAB radio to help people who work in retail keep their Jobs. Jobs are good!
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I don't know how much Obama is having an affect on British people - we are a cynical, weary people who already had the hype around a charismatic new leader 11 years ago
There is no way Brown could be compared to Obama - for one we're all watching him and laughing as he tries, and Cameron either doesn't have the talent or is barking up the wrong tree right now (or he possibly hasn't done enough to change the image of the tories)
And are the British really up for a spending binge because Obama says so? Public opinion sees a government that's taxed them to high hell and already been overspending - you will need a new government to even try and get away with that in this country right now
We don't want a messiah, we just want a realist
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Nick,
Forgetting any political oddities, I trust you are well.
It seemed odd that you would disppear during a time when so many political waves were breaking.
Even odder that the Peston postings would be replicated across onto the "Politics" site.
It's far too late to worry whether the thought-police had you in for another session.
Brown talks about a "Do nothing" opposition.
Funny thing is that I'd have liked him to have done nothing - or at least NOT do so many stupid things - over the last few years.
I'd still like an economic and political justification for Brown's snatching away of the 10p tax band - one of the few things I thought he got right. Brown just couldn't work out that it was completely feasible to retain that tax-break for the poorer while closing it off for those who earned a significant income.
Great leaders are normally great people. They sometimes admit they got things wrong.
Brown never accepted that he screwed up big-time. So he BORROWED to try and paper-over the impact of his stupid decision which killed any belief in his "prudence/ only borrow to invest" so called philosophy.
No wonder Big Gord has a spring in his step. He's been able to blame the nasty USA for allowing financial chaos to develop.
Without explaining why UK controlled financial institutions were allowed to do stupid things. Even though he and the oversight organisations HE created could have prevented them from using totally worthless bits of paper to be accepted as "capital".
Brown allowed a foolish credit-based boom, as he found lots of clever ways to tax cash flows.
Then simply sprayed money around.
It would be interesting if someone tapped into Brown's bank accounts - and those of Blair, T - and sprayed THEIR money around.
(Note to Moderators: That's not an incitement to electronic crime. You guys are probably liable to get a tax-hike in the very near Brown future. Assuming the recession will end next year, as Darling predicts... Actually, doesn't it make you wonder? If this lot can predict the end of the recession, which no other nation seems to attempt, why - with their experience of accumulating debt - couldn't they predict that we would hit the buffers around now... And if they had any idea, why didn't they warn us? Why keep racking up massive government debt? Why - oh well, it's just too tiring.)
Private sector companies are looking at GBP 155 BILLION deficits in pension funds.
That means 155,000,000,000 pounds.
That's a lot. So there are going to be a lot of people, doing what governments recommended (i.e. investing in pensions) who will be stuffed when they have to retire.
State employees at national or local level are looking at ZERO deficit. That's because there is NO significant fund - just payment "guaranteed" by the "State" - which means it comes out of current taxes.
Still doesn't explain why Brown failed to balance his budget.
Talking in a deeper voice tends to create an attitude of seriousness. But acting like a drunk at a "somebody-else-is-paying" piss up doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
If Brown says that the World is following his lead, I'm a little surprised that many European nations don't "get it".
The VAT tinkering has been a really stupid move. Just walk around and see the reality of discounts in the High Street.
VAT is a peripheral tax - just stuff on the end. The way things are going, intake will be much, much lower, as stores cut prices to encourage revenue - so Darling and Brown will get even less intake than they hoped for.
Which means that we - yes WE - will have to pay even more taxes to recoup the so-important Government income...
So this rather stupid tax concession for a year doesn't look like being of much help to the poorer folk who would simply like to have cash in their pockets.
But Brown could never back-pedal and re-instate a targeted 10p tax break.
Too "proud". Too dumb.
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Ho ho - how I've missed the Tory rantings these past few days. Wind 'em up, Nick, and watch 'em unravel.
After 3...
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if you were insolvent would you face up to facts or borrow / spend your dads life savings.
remember borrowing more caused the problems
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re: 105
I was not being political, just practical about finance
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Nick,
Crumbs, been following your blogs over the last couple of weeks and it doesn't seem to matter what you say, but if you so much as whisper that Cameron and the Tories might not be our ultimate saviours then you get a doin from the boys (and girls) on the right.
You show great judgement leaving behind the Westminster Village non story of politician caught soliciting (but "clearly" not grooming for) leaks.
I think that Obama and Brown getting together quite rightly scares Tory supporters. More international stage stuff will add to Brown's stature while making Tory feeble attempts at opportunism look a bit weak.
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It all depends on how the recession pans out when push comes to shove. I'm sure if the recession proves short then Brown will be hailed as a hero. But there's an awful lot of financial momentum in the other direction at the moment.
The government's burrowing has weakened the pound making nvestment in the UK from overseas even less attractive than it was while simultaneously turning the UK into one of the biggest default risks in Europe thus compounding the problem.
I think this will prove to be one of the most expensive pieces of gesture politics in history.
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#101
I think it was more about Government borrowing for public spending for investment to keep people in work. Encouraging people to spend to buy 'tat' or new Clothes,TV, Computer or DAB radio to help people who work in retail keep their Jobs. Jobs are good!
And there it is. It's back to the future. It's Sept 18 2001. America is on its knees. Still dumbstruck by the hideous slaughter unleashed in their midst.
But the President, for 'tis he, has a plan. We'll cut taxes and increase borrowing. I'll give a presidential address exhorting Americans to go out and consume. Let's spend our borrowed money and show them varmints that they're wrong about America!!
And now here we are again, seven years later being told it is our patriotic duty to go out and buy even more stuff we can live without.
I don't need new Clothes,TV, Computer or DAB radio. I need food and shelter.
If we, as a nation, hadn't spent the past decade ramping up property prices, all lauded as further 'evidence' of his benign brilliance by Brown, then we'd all still have a stack of money to spend on all that tat we don't need without a 500bn 'fiscal stimulus'. If we wanted.
But now the solution to this debt-bomb light-bulb moment is to forget the decade of group-think idiocy that brought us here and go out and consume more? More crud we don't need. We must buy more containers of landfill tat arriving from China just so that some of that squandering will trickle into the (minimum wage) pay-packet of a till operator?
And this is the 'global plan' pioneered by the 'saviour of the Western World'?
I must have wandered out in a tornado and got struck in the head.
We're not in Kansas any more Toto.
Maybe if I click my ruby slippers together I'll wake up and this past decade will have been a bad dream.
Nope.
Oh God. It's real.
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#109
Or is it Gordon Brown that wandered out in a tornado and took a blow to the head? It would certainly explain the surreal world into which he's trying to drag the rest of us.
Put on your ruby slippers Gordon.
Click your heels together.
'Auntie Em...'
Is he back in reality with the rest of us yet?
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David Camaroon seeks to deter 'public spending' as a way to deal with the CC...
HE'LL NEVER SUCCEED WITH THIS 'PUBLIC SPENDER' WHILE I'M AFTER THE LATEST HIGH STREET WALL MOUNTED PLASMA TV SCREEN IN THE SALES FOR MY PAD!!!
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I think Obama should instigate an investigation into mortgage backed securities trading
- who set up funds, original costs
- who made money, and sold underlying bad mortgages
- who has current exposures etc
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Quick extract from the Peston site.
"One important number, which gives us a clue, is the difference between what our
banks have lent and what they've borrowed from British households, businesses and institutions that are too small to be players in global financial markets.
It's what the Bank of England calls the customer funding gap. And it matters because it's a guide to the dependence of British banks on funds from overseas that are diminishing and could well, over time, drop to zero.
This customer funding gap was nil in 2001. But by the end of June this year,
according to the Bank of England, the gap had soared to £740bn. To be more specific,
a typical British bank has been raising the funds for 40% of all the loans it makes to
you and me from big financial institutions, money managers, giant companies and
other so-called wholesale sources."
Doesn't it seem odd?
Brown was "prudent" for a few years.
Just who was supposed to "manage or oversee" the banks, when Brown focused his vision onto the wonderful sustained growth of the UK economy?
Zero funding gap in 2001.
June 2008, a funding gap of GBP 740 BILLION.
So nobody noticed that?
Why not?
Who was created to look at that sort of stuff? The FSA.
Who created he FSA? Big Gordon.
The man may be a wonderful historian. Though I'm not convinced by his books. (I only buy the remaindered versions...and that tends to be fairly soon after first publcation.)
But he was never an economist.
I doubt he was even a democratic socialist (with whom I could relate).
Just a bloke who just doesn't have a clue about how most people live.
And really don't care which political tribe holds the reins of power, as long as they use our money and aspirations for a decent society in a sensible way.
All that died a few short years after 1997.
I don't miss Blair. Flim-flam man. Short-term policies, half thought through. Afraid to stop Brown'd stupid expansion of expenditure on the back of a credit boom.
Funny, really. Change seemed like a good idea.
I think the Chinese say "Be careful that what you wish for will actually happen".
Maybe that should be adjusted. "Be careful that the people who you think may have your interests at heart aren't really a bunch of self-serving political thugs." Thinking is NOT the same as DOING.
This mob has done so many stupid things, it gets frightening.
Do they really represent US?
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102. At 7:07pm on 09 Dec 2008, tarquin wrote:
".. British people - we are a cynical, weary people who already had the hype around a charismatic new leader 11 years ago"
I hate to be petty but wary sounds better than weary
weary
physically or mentally exhausted by hard work, exertion, strain, etc.; fatigued; tired: weary eyes; a weary brain.
wary
watchful; being on one's guard against danger.
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What hope do we have of finding a political solution to this problem when the supposed foremost political commentator in the country (like it or not, he is the BBC's political editor) is determined to look at it from a partisan perspective?
Firstly, the issue is primarily an economic one, not a political one. Both Labour and the Tories are fundamentally in favour of a market economy, so the issue is about whether the government's chosen policy is the right one for the UK, not whether the policy choice of the President Elect of the USA is the right one for the UK.
As regards the best way forward economically, check out your colleague's blog. There are innumerable excellent posts from individuals clearly more qualified than either Brown or Cameron could ever hope to be with some refreshing thoughts and ideas of alternative ways forward.
The one constant on that blog so far as I can see, is that increased borrowing is not the answer to our problems, and in fact significant reductions in public spending are an absolute necessity.
I suspect that the UK electorate will punish Cameron for saying what he has. Britons aren't very good at realism so far as I can see. Apparently 40% think Brown/Darling is the right team to get us through the recession. What a testament to the UK education system.
In truth Cameron deserves to lose the election. He doesn't have the courage to tell it like it really is. Saving GBP20bn doesn't come close to solving the problem. The tax take from the financial services sector alone will fall by GBP30-40bn per annum following the bank bailout.
Neither Brown nor Cameron have shown anything like the leadership required, and asking which is more like Obama really rather misses the point.
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It's been obvious for over a year that only inflation can cure this crisis of free-market capitalism. The value of all those bad loans, whoever owns them, must be brought back to a low level.
So, either the US and all other debtor nations print money and the Chinese and Arabs have to grin and bear it, or they invest a large chunk of their money in our economies, to reflate them. If you owe someone a hundred you have a problem, but if you owe them many trillions, they do.
For the UK, Cameron et al. should keep quiet if they've nothing realistic to suggest.
If they had had their way, done nothing, and let the market take its course, all the major banks all over the world would be bust by now, and we'd be fighting each other for food.
Free market capitalism RIP.
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The four most dangerous words in the English language are "Something must be done". Although it is a travesty to call the Tories the "do nothing" party, they are certainly the "only do something if there is a likelihood that what you are doing will work" party. Mr Brown's favourite Nobel-prize winning economist has said that a fiscal stimulus is a good thing - but it has to be at least 4% of GDP to have any chance of working. Labour's £20B is barely over 1% of GDP and is therefore doomed to failure.
(Even CEH acknowledges this is a "minimal" stimulus, yet strangely thinks it is somehow beneficial.)
By contrast, Labour are the "for goodness sake do something to catch the headlines, whether it is likely to work or not"party. Hence, the £12B that it will cost to reduce VAT to 15% for 13 months is just money down the drain that taxpayers will have to repay later. With high streets full of 50% off offers, is another 2% off (assuming retailers pass it on) going to have a stimulating effect? I don't think so.
There are many examples of this Labour compulsion to "do something, anything" in all areas of policy. It started in 1997 with House of Lords "reform" - still unfinished business - and its most egregious manifestation is ID Cards.
Sometimes less is more.
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"derekbarker, #90
Carrots, why should Britain steer a course of letting the crisis run its length (do nothing) when the rest of the world is doing something to stimulate their economies?"
Derek, it's quite obvious to most here that you're not in full possession of the faculties required on this topic.
"Doing nothing" or "letting the crisis run its length", or more accurately, biting the bullet and taking the pain for the wasteful boom years of the last Labour decade is precisely what we need.
Borrowing on the never-never to finance handouts to Labour layabout voters, create more unrequired jobs in the public sector, and provide a "stimulus" will merely saddle this country with an unsurmountable debt that will shackle our children and grandchildren in an economy reminiscent of the 1970s.
An era to which you no doubt look on with great pride, as it was the last time Labour were in power, and look at the fine mess they made that time.
Thankfully, there are enough people in this country who can see past "blame Thatcher" politics of your kind, and realise that borrowing our way out of a looming debt crisis is not the way to go. Your kind of politics has, like all dogs, had its day. And not before time too.
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Nick - why dont try reporting on how Gordon Brown has cynically bankrupt the country to ensure that Labour stays in power.
1) 2/3 of all jobs created in the last 11 years were in the Public Sector. These 1 million Public sector workers were all 'Diversity Co-ordinators' and other useless clipboard bureaucrats. They all make massive salaries with gold-plated pensions. Who are they going to vote for?
2) Why do we have millions on disability benefit? Who engineered all of this. Who are they going to vote for? Exactly!!
This is the tip of the iceberg. Gordon Brown and everyone in the Labour Party make me sick!!
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49.
'Correct me if I'm wrong, but the whole cause of this crisis was people borrowing money that they can't afford to pay back.'
Well, the whole cause was actually because banks lent money which people couldn't afford to pay back, then bought and sold those loans as risk-free, with the connivance of the credit ratings agencies.
The question is, will surplus countries like China and the Middle East risk upsetting an apple-cart which has been serving their elites rather nicely, if Mr Obama, plus the other main debtor nations, including the UK, take matters into their own hands, and print away some of their debts?
I hope that this scenario has been discussed with the Chinese, and Saudis.
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There is a good chance that both Obamanomics and Gordonomics are wrong, and here a double minus does not a plus make.
Bernanke in his 2002 helicopter-prevent-deflation speach thought that Japan's quantitative easing could not prevent its downturn because balance sheets of companies and banks were weak, and that is precisely the situation both the UK and the US are in. Household and company debt in the UK and the US are at unsustainable levels. The household debt problem is well known but already in 2007 operating profits of the companies owing 25% of UK company debt did not suffice to service that debt, according to the bank of englands financial stability report published this year.
Borrowing is already high and is part of the problem. Government can not offset the fall in consumtion as households start saving again after spending 0.5% more than their disposable income in 2006. A 10% drop in consumtion will cause a 6% drop in GDP. It's necessary, don't expect your house to pay for the holidays, your new car or supplement your pension.
Obama and Brown both offer the wrong prescription. Why Obama does it beats me, but let's see whether he really is not cleverer than Paulson who wants to increase credit card debt and car loans just when unemployment is on the up.
Remember, in 1956 the UK's debt to GDP ratio hit 146%. It was also the year a pound would convert into 12.2 swiss francs, compared to 1.8 swiss francs now. The value of a 1956 pound in today's money is 5.5 pence, 4.25 times the total inflation in Switzerland over the same period. Brown does not care about the potential inflation he will seek to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio. His pension is indexed and paid for by the tax payer.
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95. derekbarker
Ill take that as a No then.
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In politics it is always wise to note what has been said before. I do recall that Gordon Brown said ' it was no time for a novice' and that you in the media said this was a great put down for D. Cameron. Now you tell us that a novice has all the answers to the world problems in the shape of Obama and that Brown is similar to that change. Which is it?
Most people I meet have very little faith in Obama they think its great that he has been able to reach the Whitehouse from his poor background but do not believe other than great speeches he has anything to offer. In fact you and the BBC seem to be the only ones obsessed with America.
With all that has happened in Parliament recently I am surprised you have so little to offer.
With our economy sinking like a stone it is impetitive that we get responsible reporting. This is not currently the case. In his speech today, David Cameron stated that we could not afford a stimulus to our economy due to G. Browns borrowing and this was only deemed a good thing to do anyway if countries had been fiscally responsible. Germany for one agrees with D. Cameron. He offered ways forward for the economy none of which you reported.
A very poor showing from you I think.
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#104, Laughatthetories wrote:
Ho ho - how I've missed the Tory rantings these past few days. Wind 'em up, Nick, and watch 'em unravel.
Laughat...
As someone who has voted for all three major parties over the years - and independent at local elections - it eventually comes down to worrying about who will actually spend taxes in a sensible way.
I have no problem with increased spend in the NHS. Medical equipment and other costs run at a higher level of inflation than many other areas.
Blair/Brown/Hewitt negotiated with such good effect that they, in practice, forced GPs and consultants to accept pay-rises they didn't need, didn't ask for and which don't deliver anything really beneficial - except in a "tick-the-box" State mentality.
I have no problem with investment in Education. (My old Mum taught for years...) But it's a bit hard, when my old Mum believes that Maths and Science "tests" are simply devalued compared with the rigour required some decades ago.
I do, definitely, question why government departments require so many, very expensive, "advisors" to do a job that should be within the grasp of Ministers.
Life gets more complicated because politicians force complication down our throats.
You can pass as many laws as you like, but if some schmuck gets up with a bad idea in mind, what you need is a copper prepared to stop him. Not multi-layered social sectors who want to "understand" what created his or her mindset. (Which normally turns out to be the fault of "society". All our faults because some schmuck kills another person... I don't think so.) And deliver money with no strings to folk who really have no social conscience. Can't help Baby P reference.
I have always wanted social inclusion. My parents worked their butts off to help me.
That should NOT mean excluding the basic fundamentals of social concern.
Odd that Jack Straw is thinking abvout some adjustments to the Human Rights stuff in the UK.
Bit late.
If someone comes to the UK, having committed crimes in his or her homeland, why should we support them here - rather than sending them back home?
They'd have problems there? Well, that's tough.
Believe it or not, I find that hard to say.
I would defend people who attempt to create a viable democratic environment in their homes.
But that desire starts to erode when here, in the UK, the State imposes more and more restrictions on the individual.
If you feel it is quite normal for the State to demand your DNA, I'm sorry for you.
The State is an idea. Government is a fact.
I wouldn't trust this Administration with a ball-point pen, let alone "managing" my or my families' DNA.
No point saying that I believe this has been the worst manager of tax money since the Wilson/Callaghan years.
I exclude Atlee. He stuffed up, but it was so soon after the WWII episode that I guess he was shell-shocked.
If he'd had any real sense, he would have injected money into war-weary businesses, rather than taking them into full public control.
I expect more economic despair under Brown.
Has he helped the savers? The folk who tried to be reasonable over the last decade? The folk who paid into private pension schemes? The people who didn't borrow way beyong their means (as Brown allowed - which means he encouraged - to fuel tax intake on credit-based cash flow...)? Nah.
Why would Brown worry about the poorest part of the population?
Why worry about borrowing hundreds of BILLIONS now, when he knows that he won't be in power to manage the "recovery" exercise?
The man's been an economic fraud.
Pity we don't have an impeachment process that could hold him and his "real-world- averse" pigmy colleagues to account.
I guess I forgot. The UK economy, as managed by Brown, was borrowing far too much. But suddenly, it was all the fault of the USA. Doesn't matter that the 10p tax-break fiasco was completely home-made.
Doesn't matter that we didn't properly fund troops who Brown "allowed" to be dispersed far too widely.
Doesn't matter that Brown has created an incomprehensible "credit" scheme - which really means making people dependent on the "State".
Brown claims to have presided over the longest period of growth ever. Really? Just which declines happened during the first Elizabethan era? Did the Victorian period have regular economic shrinkage?
I don't give a damn which party actually takes my money. I do care about the way they spend it.
If they just chuck it around and inflate public pay and wastage, I do start to get a bit upset.
Don't you?
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Toenails,
I can see what you are up to - and it's shocking!!
You want a "news narrative" for the next 4 to 5 months on the subject of the "Brown and Obama" love in.
You are preparing us now - that "if there did just happen to be a long term Brown and Obama love in on the BBC" that the only reason you would be reporting 'that narrative' is because the Tories allowed the story to develop.
Of course..... what you want you personally is a good dollop of career enhancing Obama news reporting and bottom sniffing for yourself.
You would be much more interested in attending glitzy Obama and Brown press conferences than reporting matters of substance and importance to the British people.
What is worse........ if you bothered to think about the BBC's responsibility as a public service broadcaster, you'd be focusing on questions such as these:
1. Politically how Brown has managed to pull the wool over the nations eyes with respect the dire state of the economy.
2. Why there is a political rift between Merkel and Brown on economic management and the consequences of disagreement.
3. Exploring the political reasons and fallout following Brown's 100% about face with respect to prudence and sound economic management
4. Who is actually our Chancellor?
5. What is the political links between Brown's visit to the Arab nations and his potential need for an IMF bail out?
6. The political pressure to join the Euro and how this might split the parties and political factions.
Maybe the time has come for the BBC to find a new political editor. Someone who is interested in reporting the news, rather than writing the news.
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This year the pound has depreciated 25% against the currency of the US, that country that Brown blames for the recession, while sterling has also fallen against the euro. That seems rather odd if Britain is best-placed to fight this downturn, as Labour claim.
When Osborne had his interview in The Times, you need 1.18 euro to buy a pound and at that time the pound had already fallen a lot. Now you need 1.14 euro for a pound.
When debating currency was still allowed before Brown said it has always been off-limits, Brown wrote this in the Evening Standard in 1992: "It's no good the Government blaming a referendum campaign in France or a whispering campaign in Germany for the crisis of the last fortnight. People will ask why it is that when there are problems in Germany it is the pound that is hit, why when the French go to the polls it is the pound that comes under pressure, and why when the Bundesbank leaks, it is the pound that the speculators target. The reason is that a weak currency arises from a weak economy which in turn is the result of a weak Government. A Government unwilling to introduce an industry strategy and unwilling to take the measures necessary to bring us out of recession will leave our economy, and our currency, weak."
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# 3 my-pet-dragon
Sorry, but you're wrong.
Politicians like Obama and Brown are spouting stuff that's designed to get them into and keep them in power; that's what politicians do, remember. They play on our fears and, moreover, on our economic naivety. The nonsense they spout about borrowing, taxing and spending our way out of recession/depression sounds easy and sounds great; it's supposed to. The problem is that the nonsense they spout is just that: it is fatally flawed and, oh boy, we'll pay the price in the end.
Imagine you personally are in significant financial difficulty. Do you REALLY think that the answer is to go along to your bank and demand 3 - 5 years of your income (let's assume that that's a total of £125,000) and all your problems are solved? Whey hey! So much money here and now. No problem. Spend, spend, spend. Feels good. Looks good. Until the 3 or 5 years is up. Goddam. Where in the hell do you find £125,000 to pay back to the bank? You were in bad trouble 5 years ago. Now you're in so much trouble, you're dead.
So will it be for the UK economy. If Brown stays in power and gets his way - and there's a real risk that he will - believe me my-pet-dragon, we're talking basket case for the UK economy. Moreover, the social consequences don't bear thinking about, but my guess is that the British people would eventually take to the streets. Bear in mind that the UK has never been in so much economic and financial trouble before; Brown has plumbed the depths of economic incompetence.
The answer is not to borrow, tax and spend. The answer is to take a switchblade knife to the public sector monstrosity created by Brown, to slash public sector, commercial and individual debt and to incentivise citizens and corporations to create wealth from either digging things out of the ground, growing things or transforming things to add value. Anything else is just shuffling wealth about and is the root cause of the destruction of the UK economy which has been built upon the froth of the unsustainable "financial services industry" and debt-fuelled asset inflation.
Remember, Gordon Brown was the architect of this unholy mess in the UK. The sooner we get the chance to vote on whether we need Brown to lead the UK into economic oblivion, the better. My only concern is that, right now, neither the Tories nor the Liberals seem up to the job. That's why there is a huge and terrible risk of the Brown Terror holding on to power and transforming Great Britain into Britain.
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Everyone thought Hitler was a great guy too.... not after a world war. Just because something is popular at the time, it doesn't make it the best cause of action. Iraq? Afghanistan? Popular at first, not so much any more.
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#111 OiYouBoy wrote:
"David Camaroon seeks to deter 'public spending' as a way to deal with the CC...
HE'LL NEVER SUCCEED WITH THIS 'PUBLIC SPENDER' WHILE I'M AFTER THE LATEST HIGH STREET WALL MOUNTED PLASMA TV SCREEN IN THE SALES FOR MY PAD!!!"
OiYouBoy.
You are not a PUBLIC spender. You use YOUR money to make purchases for yourself. That makes you a PRIVATE spender.
Using YOUR money to buy whatever you like. If I were you, I'd do it soon. In a couple of years, taxes will rise by a very significant margin - as Darling has already promised.
It's a bit hard to realise that a Labour Government is planning to hit lower and meiddle tax-payers with a big tax hike. Not just suggesting it may be necessary - promising it!!! This from a mob who quite happily took away a 10p tax-break for the lower income group.
Public spending is when the government takes away YOUR money (probably making it more difficult to buy what you want), in order to spend it on things that you may or may not agree with.
(Like - would you want to pay a GBP MILLION for a guy who's supposed to run a state owned group responsible for helkping poor countries? Are there not quite a lot of people around who'd do that sort of job for a tad less?)
It all gets worse.
They always said that, in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man was king.
I fear that we now have a bunch of zombies who don't differentiate between the wellbeing of the nation and the preservation of their jobs.
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Realanomics
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vstrad:
At last. Someone else who sees it!
A bad decision is still a bad decision regardless of whether there are any other ideas or not.
Munich, youre still a professional wind up merchant. You dont seriously beleive that guff any more than the rest of us.
"Nothing realistic to suggest"... as if King Gordon's utterances about what he wasnt responsible for when he wasnt there and didnt say it were the panacea. All Hail Moses Brown to deliver us to the promised land, parting the Red Sea of Depression... he'd even adjust his own ten commandments to fit his own agenda, until he realised a) nobody remembered what his golden rules were in the first place and b) even fewer care now... you dont half make me larf you do. Keep it up, you ought to try Britains Got Talent when it comes round again!
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By the way, it's interesting to see that politicians who claim that now is not a good time for a novice, seek to enhance their credibility by cheering that the opposition opposes policies prescribed by .... well, .... a novice!
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126 econovice
Are you saying that when the pound was worth 1.5 Euro and 2 USD that the UK economy was strong / well-run?
Beware of simplistic assessments based on currency values. The players in these markets are emotional beings, liable to overkill just like the rest of us.
The only rational explanation for the current strength of the USD and Euro is that they enjoy safe-haven status at a time of panic, based on the size of their underlying economies.
Size does not equal strength, however, and even the aloof ECB are aware that the Euro only exists by the consent of member states' subjects. If there's no improvement in 'Club Med' economies next year, watch as the Euro comes under pressure from within, and perhaps fractures, or disintegrates.
If the pound goes back to 1.50 Euro on the back of that kind of carnage, would that make Gordon Brown's current economic policy a good one?
At the moment, a weak pound v the Euro is unquestionably good for Britain, and bad for the Eurozone.
Anyway, we're not talking about real weakness, 1.5 USD to the pound is about correct, and 1.35 Euro would be about right-1.15 is really no big deal, at least for us.
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Guys:
I dont know why we're wasting bandwidth trying to reason with these planks.... laughat, derek, charlie, pet_dragon.... theres no point.
They probably think that deep down, if they keep on chanting their mantras, it'll all come true, King Gordo will look after 'em and the rest of us can sink.
Let 'em get on with it. Its going to take more than a bunch of typing monkeys being conducted by Campbelson to save the next election when it comes.
Theyve no answer. They know they havent. Thats why they spend so long going on about their class angst (funny for Champagne Socialists) and trying to slag off any kind of opposition.
Deep down, they know Gordons number is up. Everyone does. Thats what all their noise is about.
Its the sound of fear.
Fear of defeat snatched from the probable jaws of a fourth victory, if they'd have stuck with Blair.
If they'd have shown any kind of backbone and stood any candidate against Gordon.
Let 'em get on with it. Let them continue deluding themselves.
The election is going to be theirs to lose. And they will.
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These are not mutually exclusive. Anyway, forget all that. The more pressing issue is self-enlightenment. At least, that's what my big print book of Zen says.
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Isn't it funny how people that come on here defending Labour never, ever come up with reasons why Brown's dealing of the economic crisis is the right way? No. What they do is come on here and maon about the 80s, about mean Tories, and how any bias from Nick is paranoia by a Tory blogging mob. Well the blog here is open for everyone to respond, so feel free Labour bloggers to do the same. The difference between the reactions is that at least the 'opposition' weighs in with sound arguments. The defenders? Well they post a one line, maybe two if we are lucky, about how bad it will be under a Tory government. Well let me see, can it get any worse? For people with long memories (and I myself am under 40 but I can read back) the situation now must be quite familiar. A Labour government who has spent the kitty and is now trying to cling on to power. We have a biased media backing him up and polls that are all over the shop. In the meantime, European leaders are less interested in claiming a "world saviour" persona, and more interested in getting out of the recession. Sadly for us, they of course also managed to save during the boom and are more likely to get out of this sooner than the UK will. So we are back to the 70s. UK is the poor man of Europe yet again and a deficit that would make any sane person cry.
5 more years of Brown to me will be unacceptable and I will emigrate (and happily so). I simply see no other option if I want to spend the time with a young family in a country where I feel kids can grow up the way they should.
As for Nick, well I am sure he took a well deerved break. Maybe he even switched off his mobile to stop the calls from number 10. I am not at all surprised this is the kind of blog we get. Nick hasn't really been his usual self for a while (almost to the day that Campbell and Mandy came back). Of course from the outside, Europe thinks we are mad. Well we are certainly being governed by what only can be described as a madhouse.
I worry, I really do. But if this goes on, then I (and quite a few people I know who are thinking the same thing) am off.
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Mmmm this recession - excellent analysis of the causes by Robert Peston on his latest blog - spot on in my opinion - nothing I haven't tried to get over in my own (rather less eloquent) way on here in times past.
Oh and who should be paid more do you think?
- a middle manager in a bank, or
- someone who cleans the gunge out of the toilets at Victoria Station
strange how one of these jobs is really easy, adds no value and anyone can do it, whereas the other one is really hard, is essential and nobody wants to do it - yet the first one pays more!
I think it's strange anyway.
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Oh and finally, Nick do you suggest that we follow an American model? I thought your mates at NuLabour told us they got us into this mess in the first place? And now we must look at them for answers? This surely doesn't make sense even to the simplest of souls?
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Jonno @ 79
I agree entirely I too think G. Brown is mentally ill. But what should worry you more is this man is now in charge of what is effectively a dictatorship as now it is difficult for the opposition to hold him to account, and the media refuse to.
I believe he would sink Britain rather than give up his hold on power, and his party do not care about Britain just holding on to their seats. What on earth will it take to get them out of Government.
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"The state is an idea.the government is a fact."
So may I state the idea! that this government is in fact working for all of us.
I like governments that act, I like governments to take action, I like governments that care about people, all people.
I dont understand why Cameron and co, want to beat the drama drum in this crisis?
I like to say my cup's half full!
I guess Cameron and co, like to say their cup's half empty!(negative by negative way)
Giving a bit of our tomorrow for our today
Is positive and the sensible thing to do.
Cameron has cut him-self off from the main-stream of politics, he is a drift and Isolated.
Not one single nation agree's with the "do nothing plan" not even the conservative government in Finland.
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@MunichMadrid7980,
I take your point that exchange rate developments don't give the complete picture.
However, here they are relevant for a few reasons:
-the contrast with Labour claims that the UK is best-placed to fight the downturn;
-glee on Labour faces as sterling held steady for a day on the Monday following the Saturday when the Times-Osborne interview was published; and
-Brown's dismissal of Osborne's interview given his own letter re sterling in the Evening Standard in 1992.
The pound's depreciation againt the siwss franc over 52 years from 12.2 to 1.8 can not be sniffed at. High debt levels create an incentive for governments to run with high inflation to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. A depreciating currency is an important ingredient of such a process. And remember that the UK is now a net oil and gas importer.
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Just let me know when Britain stops borrowing so I can skip the country and leave the debt to someone else.
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#104 laughatthetories
No - don't laugh. They are a serious party, represent a significant majority of opinion in this country and electing them will have serious implications.
It's not your bridge. Stop trolling with your strawman sockpuppet.
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Derek, doesn't it bother you that you come on here every day and get laughed at by people that clearly understand economics vs you who thinks intelligent wit is to spout nonesense and cheap jibes?
I am sure you want to be taken seriously, why else post on here right? Maybe start reading a bit about what we are talking about. You may.. just may be able to try and defend your beloved Labour party.
I say this because it must make you feel a bit bad that you are arguing against people who clearly have done their homework.
But then something tells me this isn't the first instance in your life where this has happened.
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The new straight-talking Conservatives, telling it like it is
BJ: ?Hi matey how are you how are you I?m going going whatever it is I?m not going to tell you now no no no no no?
Reporter: ?What are you going to do about David Ross??
BJ: ?Nothing nothing nothing nothing la la la la bye bye bye?
Reporter: ?Have you got no comment about David Ross??
BJ: ?I?ve got no comment now, thank you?
Reporter (being pushed aside by man in suit): ?But he?s your advisor?
BJ: ?
Reporter: ?If his conduct?s?if his conduct?s not good enough for the city, is it good enough for you??
BJ (over): (incoherent babbling with arms in the air)
BJ: ?I?m talking to Tim Donovan but I?m not talking to you now about this matter?
Reporter: ?When can we expect an answer??
BJ (now on phone): (inaudible)
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#134
Dont ya think young Cameron should get a grip, with all this doom and gloom rantings.
Jeez, I dont want to be down in the tube station at midnight, when some right-wing nutter, want to put his brown leather boot into my face.
Come on fubar..........THINK!
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
136#Juggler
There's a certain amount of irony in your post if only you could see it.
Re-read it and you may just see it.
I'll give you a clue you complain that Labour supporters harp on about the 80's then you go onto the 70's a popular Tory moan yourself.
Also where's your positives on the Tory "final solution" for the economy?
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Bluff and Bluster, Boom and Buster Brown announced today that he is really good and I mean really good at making economic decisions because they always work out fine?just fine?just trust him?just trust him with you money and future (oh and your kids and their kids unearned income too)
Ladies and Gentleman our unelected Leader must go.
House prices have collapsed, companies collapsed, mass unemployment, repos, mega personal debts, mega Govt borrowing, savers under threat, mega tax rises to come??.total depression and austerity for many years to come.
If youve got mega debts and in negative equity then bankrupt yourself for 350 pounds and in 12 months you?ll be free to start again.
Dont suffer because ONE MAN has totally mis-lead you for the last 11 years. Dont suffer. Start again.
WARNING: Labour Governments in the end always damage your WEALTH, HEALTH and RELATIONSHIPS.
Your home, your job and your family are a risk if you do not vote them out next time.
Here are some helpful websites for those affected by Labours wholesale mis-management of this country?s affairs.
http://www.nhs.uk/Pathways/depression/Pages/Landing.aspx?WT.srch=1
http://www.insolvency.gov.uk/
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20081206/tuk-credit-crunch-hurting-relationships-dba1618.html
http://www.relate.org.uk/
http://www.jobcentreplus.gov.uk/JCP/index.html
More to come????????..
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145#Balhamu
Boris Johnson.
Conservative Government in action.
Seriouly though, this man is running our capital city!!
How frightening is that?
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This recession ...
Imagine how bad it might be - no you're wrong, it's going to be MUCH worse (for us in the West) than that, I'm afraid.
Implosion of the particular global brand of crazy banking led capitalism of the last nigh on 25 years - we can't live forever off of cheap credit, inflated assets, and exploitation of hard working (but poor) people in the developing world - well we can't, can we?
Would be best if people recognised the truth instead of pushing political junk - in particular, I recommend that people stop trying to make out that Gordon Brown's mismanagement of the UK's public finances is a major cause of the bust - that's only on the margins - it's mainly a private sector issue - self evident and best acknowledged.
In the long run, what's happening now is a GOOD THING - it's going to lead to a better way of doing things.
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You appears to just get "Superflied" live on BBC 10 O'Clock News. Most amusing.
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#124 fairlyopenmind
Very well said, agree completely!
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#144
Juggler, Like william Hague.s 10 days to save the pound, nonsense.
OK! run it by me! this great intelligent finance plan the tories have?
Will he/she reply in detail, me thinks not.
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130 Carrots
Realonomics Part II
Thanks Labour.......
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130 Carrots
Realonomics Part III
Thanks Labour...
Oh yes...... and extra special thanks to Gordon, without whom....
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Derek Baker
Are you employed by the Labour party?
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Eatonrifle, derekbarker, balhamu, grandantidote et al.
Please can one of you socialists tell me what you think of this legislation proposed by your so called socialist masters?
Welfare claimants face conditions.
Do you not think that it odd that Duff Gordon decides now when jobs are going down the pan to introduce this legislation?
Do you also not agree the Duff could have spent the last decade weaning these people into work when jobs were aplenty and the UK was awash with money?
To help you I have included the following:
Warning over welfare reform plans.
I can make no sense of it! Perhaps you can.
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130 Carrots
Realonomics Part IV
Thanks Labour
Ooops.......... so 'crisis loans' have been on the rise since May 07
Enjoy that VAT fiscal stimulus kids!!!!!!!!!!!
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It seems many contributors doubt the BBC's and Nick Robinson's impartiality, or their reporting standards. Well, I have an easy solution for every BBC reporter and editor to establish his or her impartiality credentials:
Ask the government for a breakdown of advertising costs for public sector jobs in newspapers and on their related websites. Surely such a request and the reply to it will not be stopped by the distinct possibility that The Guardian seems to particularly benefit from the public sector job surge? Or would that be an inconvenience for BBC reporters with close relationships with The Guardian?
It is time to end one of the cleverest ways to buy favourable newspaper reporting: a new law should be introduced, requiring the government to spread public sector job adds among newspapers and their websites. This will also help the diversity of applicants.
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130 Carrots
Realonomics Part V
Ooooh Gordon....... you shouldn't have. Thanks!!!!!! Merry Christmas to you too.
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144~ Juggler
States
"Derek, doesn't it bother you that you come on here every day and get laughed at by people that clearly understand economics vs you who thinks intelligent wit is to spout nonesense and cheap jibes?"
Some quotes from your friends who "clearly understand economics" from this blog.
"Borrowing on the never-never to finance handouts to Labour layabout voters"
"Brown has been repeatedly caught out lying. He is not only bonkers but a disgrace to this country and his office."Nick - why dont try reporting on how Gordon Brown has cynically bankrupt the country to ensure that Labour stays in power.
"1) 2/3 of all jobs created in the last 11 years were in the Public Sector. These 1 million Public sector workers were all 'Diversity Co-ordinators' and other useless clipboard bureaucrats. They all make massive salaries with gold-plated pensions. Who are they going to vote for?
2) Why do we have millions on disability benefit? Who engineered all of this. Who are they going to vote for? Exactly!!"
Yep these are clearly well thought out economic arguements of the average Toy Blogger.
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we know bush was rubbish
but it doesn't mean obama
can spend, spend, spend...
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Oh, I wouldn't worry about it CJ. It's only an IOU to stave off the P45. The VAT will be along later and we can PBQ the UOI when the GDP goes TTR.
TTR?
Through the roof.
Aah, I didn't get where you are today Reggie by using a discriptive name when an acronym could do.
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114 kikidread
Well, I don't know about you but I'm weary of this government
wary does work, though I don't think people are wary enough
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It looks as if Cameron has cottoned on to the fact that Brown does not have a clue as to how this will all evolve, and neither does anyone else of course. Since uncertainty is the name of the game, the sensible approach is to prepare for all eventualities by following sound principles on living within your means, inlcuding controlling expenditure and not borrowing any more.
All the forecasts about recession, soft landings, recovery end of next year etc etc are actually just guesses by the same people who 18 months ago did not predict the collapse of many big banks, the huge fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates and so on. It is madness, if not negligent, to base policy decisions on these guesses - and this is the trap that Brown has himself jumped into with both feet and our economy.
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I call on the BBC to release the whole of the 'missing' Clangers' episode (Bear with me for a moment, please, I'm not changing the subject! ...)
As I remember, the Clangers lived in a kind of peaceful anarchy - characterised by optimism - and arguably preferable to any political system known to us today! In the published fragment (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/news/7774018.stm), the narrator tries to explain politics to the incredulous Clangers, who shake their heads in disbelief at it all. And their episode Treasure is a parable about how very silly it is to get obsessed with money!
So ...Release the whole episode, please! Perhaps the Clangers have some wisdom that will get us out of our current economic and political messes!
http://gogowiththeflow.blogspot.com/2008/12/no-clangers-from-clangers.html
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I think that Cameron is actually being quite smart in all of this. Whatever the Government does there are going to be major problems because we are going through a global crisis. Therefore all the Conservatives have to do is adopt a stance that is different from that of the Government - it doesn't really matter what they say, so long as it is different.
Nobody will, or can, ever know whether whatever alternative strategy that Cameron offers would have worked since in advance of an election it won't be implemented. On the other hand, whatever the Government does will not, and cannot, avoid the problems and suffering that the global recession will cause. So it will always be possible for Cameron to claim that the Government's policies have failed, and to make the case that his own policies would have been better. Of course, there is no way that such claims could ever be validated, but neither could they be invalidated.
His only problem seems to me that he is saddled with Osborne as economic spokesman. Anyone who watched the Newsnight interview tonight will see how big a problem that could turn out to be.
Fortunately for the country (well, England) the Government's education policies seem to be working. With a generation of schoolkids who are outperforming most of our main competitors in Maths and Science there must be some hope for the future.
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U9461192@109&110 wrote:
"..And now here we are again, seven years later being told it is our patriotic duty to go out and buy even more stuff we can live without.."
Awfully sorry about this, but I have to refer you back to the 1980s When the Conservatives decided that we have become a service economy. as our industry was run down. All serving each other in shops and services. That means we depend on people spending. If they don't we are in Trouble. Do you see?
"If we, as a nation, hadn't spent the past decade ramping up property prices, all lauded as further 'evidence' of his benign brilliance by Brown, then we'd all still have a stack of money to spend on all that tat we don't need without a 500bn'fiscal stimulus'. If we wanted."
Don't disagree with the property price point but you cant say the Conservative party would have restricted the price of property or done anything different we would still be here. This is the conlusion to the legacy left to us by your party 1997 that you are so proud of reminding us.
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I luv the comments by why are the figures in Cameron's speech (the bit on waste) simple wrong? Can't he google for the appropriate NAO reports?
Would you trust a guy who wants to waste money on website to list every £25000 item of public expenditure, and then handover welfare to 'voluntary organisations' (not public expenditure you see) and privatise the rest... schools, police hospitals etc. to give us all 'choice'. maybe with 'co-payments as well .....
Or would you even trust his cronies (sorry private sector advisers.... did not Boris just lose one of those?)
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STOP THE ESSAYS...
NO ONE READS 'EM YOU NUMPTIES!
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7 U94
#He's seriously gone in the head.
After that post I think the same comment could be made about you.
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18 maxseptic
#But that is secondary, as personally I'd vote for a pig's head on a stick rather than ever vote for Gordon Brown.
So thats the reason that your voting for Cameron, can't say I like him much myself but I wouldn't describe him that way.
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#136 Juggler
You ask how much worse could it get under the Tories:
Well let's see:
3 day week
Child poverty worse than Turkey
4 million unemployed
15% intertest rates
Internment
No minimum wage
Riots on the streets of our major cities
Health service underfunded
Rail privatisation
John Major
Black Wednesday
Deregulation
School milk
Mark Thatcher
etc etc
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How's this for a worst case scenario?
Government borrowing soars beyond affordability against GDP.
National debt defaulted. Extra money printed, pound weakens further, more money printed, pound weakens, international confidence in the pound evaporates completely, hyperinflation ensues.
People starving, riots on the streets.
Gordon Brown announces national emergency and no general elections for the 'forseeable future'.
Nah, have faith in Gordon, he knows what he's doing. ;-)
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I sure am sick and tired of all this Obamania running wild at the biased BBC.
CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANGE! ANYBODY SPARE SOME CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANGE?
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Mr Robinson is suffering from Peston's syndrome. He thinks he's in the know whereas he's merely following fashion.
We get a succession of banalities wrapped up in the "I know what I'm talking about" tone. But in the end you end up knowing no more than you did at the beginning.
We know that Robinson used to be a Conservative; It's a matter of record. But is it the job of a BBC employee to give advice to the leader of the Conservative Party as he does at the end of this rather pathetic blog?
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And I quote "If you keep doing the same thing, you will keep getting the same results"
Gordon Brown is ploughing on full steam with his "Do Nothing Different" policies, so why should we expect them to have any other result than they have so far?
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Derekbarker 154
Can I just remind new readers that 10 days or so ago, you asserted repeatedly that the fall in VAT would bring the price of groceries down. You were challenged by many, myself included, to explain why, but you didn't.
Therefore, your asking sarcastically for an explanation of Tory economic policy is not something you can reasonably expect a reply to. In short, I don't think many people on here would think you are able to understand, and therefore it isn't worth the effort.
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Let's all laugh at Laughatthetories!
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Cameron isn't from the "do nothing" party, he's from the "stop digging" party.
Obama, unlike Brown, can splash the cash more because the US Dollar is still a reserve currency, i.e. people move into USD at times of trouble. Sterling doesn't have that luxury.
We need to be a nation of "if you want something, you've got to save up for it" consumers. Don't mothers tell their children that anymore?
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I recommend careful reading of Peston's pdf available on the BBC website.
According to the Governor of the Chinese Central Bank, the US should take the initiative to adjust its policies, raise its savings ratio and reduce its trade and fiscal deficits.
Exactly the opposite of what Obama, and Brown in the UK, are proposing to do. And, by the way, the Bush Administration was equally culpable.
The Pre-Budget Report was, for the UK, a disaster. Wildly optimistic growth forecasts and no plausible attempt to explain how the UK would reduce its debt. Under Brown, debt reductions are always a few years away, but never today, or even tomorrow.
Labour are great at anti-Conservative slogans but never address the policy failings described by Peston.
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141 eco
Comparing the UK with Switzerland is a bit misleading.
The same goes for those on the left who seek to compare our welfare state unfavourably with that of Sweden.
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# 180:
Agreed. Idon't think the guy has a decent grasp of common sense let alone politics!
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# 181:
Also agreed. I don't believe the ordinary Joe has grasped the fact that while other countries with their reserves and better financial position are able to weather the storm by pumping in extra investment we can't ride it so successfully because our cupboard is already bare.
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#169
you cant say the Conservative party would have restricted the price of property or done anything different we would still be here.
We'll never know what the Tory party would have done. The fact is we elected a Labour government who in their 1997 manifesto specifically guaranteed there would be no more property bust. You'd think they'd have spotted it coming when CPI inflation was 2% and house-price inflation was 15%. Wouldn't you. I did. I was warning anybody who would listen how this would all end.
Further, I was (and am) warning anybody who will listen what the Labour governments 'tough choice' will be. They will print money and destroy your savings. Because its 'the right thing to do'.
This is the conlusion to the legacy left to us by your party 1997 that you are so proud of reminding us.
So the 2007/08 property bust (ongoing) is all the Tories fault?
Will you just listen to yourself.
By that logic all traffic accidents are the fault of the Romans.
This bust is entirely Gordon Browns fault. He sat there claiming credit for a booming economy when it was simply booming with borrowed (government) money. We've had 3% fiscal stimulus every year since 2001 and we're still going to have a massive recession. And his brilliant idea (bearing in mind 3% fiscal stimulus for the last 7 years hasn't avoided this recession) is to up the medicine to 8% of GDP.
How stupid can one man be? It looks like Gordon Brown is about to show us.
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Nick,
I would love for some of those who support socialism to come on to your blog and explain to me how they can justify the new government policy with regard to the unemployed.
I so look forward to seeing this policy being implemented, after they have probably lost the next, if there is one, election.
The events in Greece are going to be a foretaste of what I think will happen in many countries. Anybody who fails to get a job will be able to simply turn to a government and say you have found billions to save thge banking industry, so that they give millions in bonuses, yet you do nothing to save my job.
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The reason the left bang on about thatcher is so they can tie every one up in sterile debate, and so squeeze out discussion of what should be happening right now.
We were in clover; now we are in the sh*t.
Labour led us here - whats the best way out? It seems labour won't even acknowledge what has happened ('UK best placed to weather the storm' yes... right...), and seem to want to distract us (like giving an infant a dummy when they are scared by thunder).
If labour led us here deliberately, I might have enough confidence in their 'map reading' to beleive they have the ability to lead us out (if they wanted to); but as long as they continue to insist that "we aren't lost we know exactly where we are" when it is clearly a lie, I have no confidence in them at all - and neither should anyone else.
The people who support labour don't actually care about what happens to this country and it economy - they are happy for us to be in the sh*t, just so long as it is their sh*t.
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Brown is contemptuous of the people, relying on stupidity to garner support. The US is engaged on a parlous economic gamble of borrowing trillions to buy its way out of recession - however, the US dollar is a reserve currency and that makes all the difference. Brown on the other hand squandered all the booty during the boom years (which he failed to see as a boom and thus regulate) - now the country is bust and as a little island off the coast of Europe we do not have the reserves to borrow our way out of this crisis, particularly since Brown already squandered all the money.
Did you read Peston's excellent report yesterday? The UK and the US fueled their property and consumer booms with borrowing from the producer nations of the Near and Far East. That source of borrowing is no longer there and we will have to pay our way in the world (and pay back Brown's debts). Stoking up borrowing to crazy levels now (as Brown and Darling advocate) is a short term non-fix which will lead to hyperinflation and penury in the future.
Brown is committing "economic crimes" as Cameron put it yesterday and the price for that will be massive. Brown is intent only on saving his own political skin.
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Brown reminds me of a firefighter desperately trying to put out the flames - only trouble is he's using petrol !!!
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There is consensus that we have to boost the economy across all the political parties
BUT there is some interesting differences
Brown seems to think that if he repeats a lie often enough it will be believed and he is a politician fighting to stay in office so not too surprising eh?
The other governments DO agree that a stimulus is needed and then they added the caveat that it would be countries that had a previous budget surplus that could AFFORD to do this
Brown just took the first part and the logical outcome is that if we won't cut public spending then our debt HAS to rise
As far as I can tell all Cameron is saying is that he will reduce the rate of growth of public spending in order to reduce the amount of debt we'll accumulate - which as we will eventually have to raise taxes to pay for it seems like quite a good idea
I don't believe that government spending will make that much difference because they are not the wealth generating sector of the economy and until that recovers at best the government might hold the line but recovery will need much more that cash handouts to individuals
Personally I have already cut back where I can and will continue to do so because there is huge uncertainty our there at the moment so its sensible to do so
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It's simple really. You don't spend more than you have in your purse or bank account if you don't have the means to pay it back and you don't borrow extra if you are already in massive debt!
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Where does 'Big Government' expect to 'borrow' all this money from: It doesn't actually exist and you're all being conned.
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David Cameron has said repeatedly that getting the money moving by insuring credit to small business is the way to go. This is not "do nothing" - it is doing something constructive.
When Gordon Brown says that lenders must lend to 2007 levels, that is frightening because we are in this mess because of easy lending.
So it is not going to be so easy to get a mortgage without having a deposit and the ability to pay back the loan. First its get out of debt by saving; then save for a deposit and then of course its necessary to have a job.
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Like the INSURERS i would lend to
MCDONALDS
BUT
NOT TO GORDYs GANG
SO LISTEN UP GORDON OUR INVESTMENT
FUND WILL NOT BUY UK DEBT
HAVE YOU GOT THAT???????
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'you can't say the Conservative party would have restricted the price of property or done anything different we would still be here.'
If oversight of bank lending had been left with the Bank of England, the lending boom would have been more controlled. They would have ensured that Northern Rock did have proper assets. The BOE had the knowledge and experience built in. The FSA did not.
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MODERATORS/MR ROBINSON??
WANTING A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT IS
NOT OFF TOPIC,
UNLESS OF COURSE THE BBC DONT?
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'you can't say the Conservative party would have restricted the price of property or done anything different we would still be here.'
If oversight of bank lending had been left with the Bank of England, the lending boom would have been more controlled. They would have ensured that Northern Rock did have proper assets. The BOE had the knowledge and experience built in. The FSA did not.
And I should have said, this was what the Conservatives wanted.
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Heard on Radio 4 yesterday and quoted on bbc.co.uk "However chief secretary to the Treasury Yvette Cooper said Mr Cameron's plans meant cutting public spending during a recession"
Cooper is either a fool or a liar. She's no fool. Come on BBC and Nick - how can you let such a whopper go unchallenged.
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Genius - so it must be wrong if it isn't what Obama is doing in the states.
Lets leave aside the only slightly touched on subject that other nations' finances may well better placed to support this stimulus.
Instead lets just focus on the fact that the BBC love-in with Barack "The Chosen One" Obama doesn't even attempt to ask whether his own stimulus plan is sensible/affordable. No, we can't question that, Obama MUST be right. And anyone across the world who doesn't do the same thing is "taking a big risk".
And why is it that "doing nothing" is wrong? Brown's spent his way all the way to recession already, spending even more isn't going to help.
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Hang on a minute...
Why does the man who says that this is "a problem that started in America" get to decide that we now need to slavishly foow America again?
This is the absurdity of newlabour's position; they want to blame America for all the world's problems and simultaneously trumpet their way of getting out of the problems...which is essentially the same way the got into trouble...spending more money than they earned.
This doesn't make sense - you don't avoid an accident by driving even faster; you put the brakes on.
Call an election.
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195
Alex,
1. Do you shout a lot?
2. Do you think Gordy reads this blog?
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My experience of both the FSA and the
B of E in relation to the issue of a Winding
Up Petition against HALIFAX PLC was one
of "ITS NOT IN OUR REMIT".
The CRAZY lending was not regulated by
either regulator.
NOW WE ARE WHERE WE ARE AS
A BANKRUPT NATION.
CHEERS GORDY.
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197. Spot on.
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POST 200
Hence my post no 1
LEMMINGS etc etc
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192. Totally agree, Scilian. Like Maggie said - "If you can't afford it you can't have it".
That's always been my discipline and - fortunately - it has paid off. Why does the government not think it would work? Sirry irriots.
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post 206
Because Gordy knows BEST doesnt he.
NOT!!
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So GB intends to spend/borrow his way out the mess he is partly responsible for creating(with payback to follow, everybody please note) and DC states there is too much spending. Your article mentions France and Japan, but not Germany, where significantly as the largest European economy AM is taking a much more cautios approach.
Incidentally GB can never be Obama,and 2 weeks ago when Obama was talking about his borrowing plans, he also mentionned that he would also look strongly at expenditure on topics which were pursued by lobbyist groups, political or private. Now wouldnt that be something special from the curled lip one in the UK to cut back on meaningless quangos, or double reviews, or minority interests groups(and before anyone says anything) there are good ones,but a helluva lot of bad ones with wasted money on madcap schemes
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There is an article in The Times today which explains how two phenomenon are linked:
Phenomenon 1 Having deserted Brown, Labour supporters are flocking back and despite the state of the economy, poll ratings have improved.
Phenomenon 2 I'm on a tracker mortgage. Following interest rate cuts I rejected the option to lower my monthly charge and spend the difference on plasma screens etc. Instead I opted to continue to pay the same rate and use the interest rate cut to pay off more of the capital I owe, so that I am less exposed when the tax rises kick in.
The article:
An explanation?
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Saying that the Conservatives are a ?do nothing? party,has really hit home.The biggest problem for the tories is rebutting this argument,which is highly unlikely.
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Nick,
this is how bad the government has become. I read the Daily Mail interview with Jack Straw and there was the distinct impression that the Human Rights Act had become a villains charter, and thus needed 'changes'.
Now some government minister was on the Today programme this morning being interviewed about the 60th anniversary of the declaration of Human Rights and he was asked about Jack Straw's comment.
The naswer amazed me. He actually said that Jack Straw has never said that the Human Rights Act was 'a villains charter'. No! What he has been saying is that the Act gave 'the sense of a villains charter'.
Now you wonder why we should be afraid. An election in the spring has never been so needed. I think that the riots in Greece will spread as more and more people realise that we are reaching the end game. I see Brown and his conies saying that the situation is too serious and that elections will have to be delayed, and then we can have a government of national unity. For our good of course.
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Brown wants us in hock to the Chinese and the Saudis for the next fifty or a hundred years.
Socialists support him, because they idolise the government of China's techniques for running their country, and want them instituted here.
We do NOT need to start borrowing above our station - the bust has come due to Gordon thinking boom and bust was dead.
He was wrong. He is wrong. He will continue to be wrong.
He needs to go, for his sanity, and ours.
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So the number of people over the state pension age is officially for the first time higher than the number of children.
Given it takes circa 30 taxpayers to support a single bureaucrat and the ratio of unproductive bureaucrats to productive workers is worsening..... someone in the future is going to pick up a massive tax bombshell.
Add that to Gordon's Christmas present tax bombshell and whooo it gets scary.
Hands up who is feeling sufficiently fiscally stimulated to go out there this Christmas and spend, spend, spend to save Gordon's job?
Bit of a problem......
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post 202 munichmadrid
No i dont shout.
Gordy doesnt but his gang do,i am refererred to on the Labour Party blog??
They treat us with contempt so why not
treat them with contempt ,MUPPETS.
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Oh dear Mr Robinson !
Yet again, the way in which you couch your blog very clearly indicates that you align yourself to the Brown line (or the BBCs, which is much the same).
Any particular reason why you did not pose the question -
" Can Brown really afford to continue to press for short term a fiscal stimulus with more borrowing than the country can afford and which will need to be funded through spending cuts and increased taxation after the election?".
You could then have said that-
"... in pursuing this line in the face of increasing doubts as to the effectiveness of such a stimulus including those expressed by Germany, which is one of the few Countries that can actually afford it, does Brown not run the risk of being seen as increasingly associated with the economic failures of past Labour Governments which were largely caused by mounting national debt and reckless spending, something which Brown has perpetuated during the last 10 years under his economic stewardship".
Unfortunately, due to your and the BBCs demonstrable political bias, clearly you could not have said such a thing. I just feel hugely disappointed that you feel the need to serve up such a lightweight, ill thought out and plainly biased blog. Do not actually read peoples comments. If you did, you might be surpsised that the majority are fed up with your continual ,and usually unfounded, questionings and incomplete repetition of Cameron's and the Tories policies.
I despair!
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The Brown/Mandelson strategy for winning the next election is now in full swing. Mini budget giveaway, throw cash at the economy to defer the effects of the recession, another giveaway budget in April, bring the troops home from Iraq, triumphant parade through London with Brown taking the salute, surge of national pride then an election late May or early June. After the election, massive tax rises ,rested troops off to Afghanistan , Brown awarded " Hero of the party " medal. I take it Nick that the BBC or your good self had no particular interest in the government obstructing any attempt to have a meaningful inquiry into the Damien Green affair, or did Mandy tell you to "Hands off ' ?
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@181 - Why blame the mothers? Our whole economy depends on us NOT being an "if you want something save up for it" economy.
When mothers try to teach their children this (as I do) we are considered deeply weird, because we have no debt and aren't prepared to be Happy Consumers, "spending our way out of recession".
The hypocrisy of it sticks in my throat. We love to slam 'chavs' and doleys and single parents for their spendthrift ways, while our own government sets the example that others are just following.
I can't see much difference, really, between official economic policy and a story-line straight out of Shameless: "Oops, dole money run out again? Never mind - scrounge a tenner off yer mate and get the pints in! All spent now? Ah well - there's a weedy bloke over there - you can easily bully him into giving you some cash! Hand-outs not enough to live on these days? It's OK - just get a loan - look, there's a loan shark over there - and don't worry your little head about the interest rate - you probably can't do percentages, anyway! "
I reckon that 'stimulating' the economy, under dysfunctional circumstances like these, is a bit like looking for the bloke in the pub with the most vacant unfocussing eyes, and poking him with a sharp stick... "Stop complaining! Your broken nose, cracked skull and fractured left shoulder don't matter in the scheme of things, because you've helped keep the economy going! Money changed hands, didn't it? Yes, remember, you paid the taxi driver to the hospital, and all your friends bought you flowers and cards!"
Oh I know I'm ranting, but I'm *right*, too, aren't I?!
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Nick, it was Gordon Brown who initially promoted the spending masterplan, not Obama.
He then promoted the idea globally.
This is classic Orwellian.
cheers
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YES re post 216
Youve got 180 all square on!!!
So Mr Robinson did Mandy tell you what to
say or should i say what NOT to say??
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post 217
SHAMELESS all WAYS very Appropriate.
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@MunichMadrid
The UK can very well be compared with Switzerland, and it does not look good for the UK. Switzerland is mountainous (spelling?), land-locked and has never had any oil. Nevertheless, Switzerland generated very high living standards and maintained them.
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Hmm Bermuda triangle. Just posted something of vital importance which has disappeared into thin air shortly after it was uploaded on here. If you do a link from my name you will find it! Hurrrumph! Guess the Beeb don't like what I wrote.
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Pound just dropped dramatically - wait now for our forced entry into the Euro.
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Attlee
Wilson
Callaghan
Blair
Brown
Things in common?
Left/Will leave the country in a ruined state after their premiership.
Are/Were Labour prime ministers.
L is for Labour. L is for....
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxPYa5mVlYU
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Nick-
Economics and Fiscal studies aside - one thing is becoming crystal clear!
Since the return of Mandelsohn and Campbell - Labour has upped dramatically its message to its CORE - at the same time,the intellectual flaws and lack of political experience of Osborne and Cameron are not only being exposed,but ruthlessly exposed by the aforementioned "spin twins".....
Cameron has changed tack so many times he is no longer credible.Osborne is like a rabbit in the headlights,since Deripaska,the one asset he had - huge self confidence - has evaporated.
His grilling and dissection by Jeremy Paxman last night was stomach churning - he simply has to be put out of his misery by DC - if the Tories are to have any electoral hope.
What Labout has done-in addition to switching back on its core vote is simple but efffective...
(as I said lets put economics and fiscal matters aside for the point of my post - its purely political message I am trying to get at...)
The majority of the electorate have NO interest in politics or politicians ...they care about their home,their money,the cost of living,people being treated less fairly than them,some have a moral conscience...
Look then at the Labour messages that they percieve - (note percieve - does'nt mean they are right,does'nt mean they will work,but PERCEPTION is key...
(1) - they believe their homes will not now be reposessed if one or either partner suffers job or significant income loss!
(2)-On every High Street - they see the same message "Thanks Mr Darling" - the 2.5% VAT cut - futile it may be - but the MESSAGE - is being hammered home - not by the Government - but by the retailers DESPERATE for customers....if you put two huge posters in your window - "Thanks Mr Darling - 2.5% VAT Cut here on all goods" and 40% off ALL items - the subliminal message is "Thanks Mr Darling!"...
(3)- The benefit proposals - basically "workfare" - those who get Benfit MUST either work for it - or be deemed to be working for it...a large increase in the reporting of Benefit Fraud Court Cases - all play on the fears of the electorate - it WILL BE tougher for people to sit at home and do nothing , or for a sub class of young unmarried mothers to sit at home and become effectively benefit brrod mares...
(4) -Troops will be pulled out of Iraq - notwithstanding the fact most will then go to Afghanistan - its another small subliminal message that a horrible episode is nearing conclusion....
And what exacerbates the Tory problems are OWN GOALS they are committing..
(a) - spending two weeks apparently focussing on the DG affair - the headline message "Top Tory Arrested" - is still the message MOST of the electorate relate to DG...not constitutional matters
(b) - Recession will be good - we should stop moaning and take the punishment - 2 former Cabinet Tory Ministers - committing shocking own goals...
(c) - the "Do Nothing" accusation sticks - because Cameron changes his tune every week,getting more and more clear water between him and Brown - it may go down well with Tory Bloggers and Daily Mail writers - it does'nt land well with the mass electorate out there.
(d) - spending and budget cuts - I dont think DC is wrong necessarily,but his tone,his language and his failure to comprehensively explain his ideas mean he is too easily accused of not bothering...
Finally CLASS.....its not irrelevant that Labours core support seems to be returning to the fold.....put simply - the Tories need a working class BRUISER a la Tebbit...
in Cameron and Osborne and the other old Etonians they see politicians saying one thing,doing another,somehow insulated from the problems everyone else is facing - DC's pathetic photo opportunities shopping in Woolies at the weekend - simply make him look like a buffoon - as one Tory blogger on conservativehome put it..."no one in the Party will believe Dave shops at such a downmarket store"....
-all he needs now is some hack photographing him coming out of Harrods back door (LOL)...!!!!!!!!!...
Finally,DC is losing core Tory support,membership is falling,the membership is aging FAST,cuts are being made at chq as this core backers i.e big business feel the pinch and mark my words...Mandy and AC have 3 more aces to play before Xmas...
(1) Boris and the Met Pol interference over DG has a lot of scope to harm the Tories..
(2) Boris and DC's close personal relationship to the boss of Carphone Warehouse - will further draw attention to the Tories links with big business,hedge funds,speculators at a time when banks and banking are still public enemy No 1...
(3) - internally....DC has had a not so secret meeting last Friday with the EC Commissioner - William Hague was NOT invited and is believed to be seething - the anti EU brigade in the Tory Party - around 75% OF THE ACTIVE membership - DO noT trust DC on EU matters - they see him as at worst pro EU at best weak on EU matters....this mark my words is a political nuclear explosion waiting to happen under DC - when he will need it least....
My own view is Brown will go to the Country in October 2009 - BUT if pools continue to improve,if Tory infighting and division increases still further and if DC once again offers him the opt out - call an election NOW...then a short 3 week campaign CANNOT be rules out...around early May -
and finally back to Nicks post....Brown will head G20 for 6 months from Jan 1 - YOU BET OBHAMA WILL BE USED TO FLAUNT LABOUR VALUES...!
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PATRICIA AT 1034AM - POUND WAS TRADING -
UP on the day against ALL major currencies....just checked - you must have some rogue data?
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£1.47835 v $...UP 0.180 % on the day...
at 1040am....
Patricia - may be an idea to tell Gideon to stop giving you false data....
On a more serious point....The pound is going to be weak in a period of global economic stability...
ITS STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE...
Its on the Continental shelf between the US Dollar and the EU Euro....
Money markets will always target the place of least resistance....
The UK economy - even at its strongest SIMPLY cannot match the US Dollar or almost 20 European States...
Sooner or later we will have to decide as pragmatically as possible....£ or Euro...
simple as that....
If we chose the £ we will have to accept that our status in terms of currency will be massively diminished from where we were in the days of the franc,the mark,the lira,the peso,the kroner etc...
Those days have simply vanished forever!
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#213 jonathan cook
Given it takes circa 30 taxpayers to support a single bureaucrat and the ratio of unproductive bureaucrats to productive workers is worsening..... someone in the future is going to pick up a massive tax bombshell.
............................................
Yes. The problem is that the public pensions are more or less totally unfunded.
I read an article written by Tim Bennett in which he estimated that the future cost of funding existing public sector pensions range from £650 billion (if you ask the government) to a whopping £1 trillion, according to some actuarial firms. His article also stated that this will give the state an annual tax burden of over £16 billion per year, which equates to over £400 per working pension. This is staggering to say the least.
He went on to say that the top civil servants, like Sir Ian Blair, are likely to get £160,000 per year on top of a lump sum of £672,000. Gordon - and other MPs are probaby in line for an awful lot more. If we will be paying Sir Ian Blair well in excess of £1 million for his pension, you can imagine how expensive this particular gravy train is going to be to run over the next 50 years or so.
After raiding our private pensions and robbing us of literally thousands of hard-earned pounds, Gordon is highly unlikely to reform a system which provides him and his core voters with a gold-plated pension.
Rant over.
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If we chose the ? we will have to accept that our status in terms of currency will be massively diminished from where we were in the days of the franc,the mark,the lira,the peso,the kroner etc...
Those days have simply vanished forever!
Yeah. Poor old Swiss stuck with their comedy currency. what hope have they.
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224...You may be right - you may not be...
Opponents could counter...
Heath
Thatcher
Major......
all left the country in a worse mess than they found it...
The fact is this....
can anyone name ONE POLITICIAN in history who could have engineered an economic success on the back of a GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS...
It IS GLOBAL
It is A CRISIS...
What Brown is trying to do is worthy of David Blaine...
and a great economist he may not be,a great Leader he may not be,but as a Political Bruiser he has few equals....he is using and will use the Global crisis to HIS political advantage....
and if he succeeds.......dont blame Brown - blame the opponents singularly unable to land a blow on him!
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230 - so the UK should aspire to be as relevant to the worls as Switzerland....
Its economic power is a myth - built on hidden Jewish and hidden Nazi assets shrouded in the mists of corruption and skulduggery!
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DC's counter-argument is easy.
"Common-sense-onomics".
Borrowing and lending has failed us. Further borrowing and lending will only make matters much worse. Its like throwing petrol on fire in an attempt to extinguish it, instead of water.
We need to invest very carefully in the right things, manufacturing, innovation and prioritising on anything that reduces unemployment. Interest rates needs to go back up to at least 5%, that's a perfectly reasonable amount to pay if you are borrowing somebody else's money.
We need to re-introduce the culture where if you've borrowed too much you go to the wall, you will not be bailed out. Hard luck, learn the lesson, be genuinely PRUDENT in future and don't repeat the mistake.
A consumer-driven recovery from the current crisis, fuelled by more lending/borrowing on 0% interest rates is complete and utter madness that will only end in a total unmitigated disaster, sooner or later.
The thing is, I don't want the satisfaction of saying I told you you so in ten years time. I want us to learn from the all of the mistakes and start doing things a lot more intelligenty, right now, today !!!!
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#226
My own view is Brown will go to the Country in October 2009 - BUT if pools continue to improve,if Tory infighting and division increases still further and if DC once again offers him the opt out - call an election NOW...then a short 3 week campaign CANNOT be rules out...around early May -
If I were Brown I'd have gone to the country already. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. It certainly won't be better by mid 2010. It'll just have gone on longer.
Every day that passes risks the likelihood that even more voters will wake from their slumber and realise who is ultimately responsible for this mess.
The government.
I cannot deny that Mandelson/Campbell have been astonishing in 'managing' the way things are reported. I'd have thought a PBR that warned folk they'd be in the hole for another 500bn quid would have had everybody up in arms. But no. Polls still showing a Tory lead but not enough to convince me we'll be saved from Browns lunacy.
Quite frightening. I don't think I can face another five years like 1992-1997. Triumphalist leering faces of Brown and Smith. ID cards. Economy totally destroyed.
Oh God.
Nightmare.
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#231....
Neither Thatcher nor Major left this country in a worse state than they found it...
It may be a global crisis, but Gordon has failed to save during the last decade, because he thought he had
"put an end to Tory (sic) boom and bust"
He sold our gold at record low prices. He raided our pension funds. How can you possibly absolve him of blame?
HE WAS WRONG....
and he cannot admit it. It is the first sign of a deep pyschological flaw. Those closest to him have said so, and they should know. He got where he is today by bullying and bashing others, not due to any skill, cause as well all know he's never had a real job and has a PhD in History (of the Marxist variety no doubt).
The man has to go - simple as. So do his nose-in-the-trough colleagues.
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#231 greatandydudley
What Brown is trying to do is worthy of David Blaine...
and a great economist he may not be,a great Leader he may not be,but as a Political Bruiser he has few equals....he is using and will use the Global crisis to HIS political advantage....
.................
So Gordon is not a great economist or a great leader eh? But that's all right - as long as he can use the Global Crisis to his political advantage. Never mind the rest of us eh.
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Opponents could counter...
Heath
Thatcher
Major......
all left the country in a worse mess than they found it...
Well Heath maybe. But Thatcher/Major undoubtedly left the UK in a better state than they found it.
By contrast, if Gordon went right now he will have doubled national debt, presided over the greatest housing bust in UK history. Left the value of our FTSE100 lower than he found it. Left sterling at its lowest ever level against the Euro. Presided over the largest decline in employment ever.
If he waits until 2010 then he'll comfortably have surpassed all those on the down-side too.
Oh joy.
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#130 Carrots
That's the real story - the nub of the matter IMHO. I've posted a similar link in the past but had no response. Too gloomy to contemplate maybe?
The media need to grasp the enormity of what awaits us if Brownanomics is allowed free reign and need to start reporting it.
There is a lot of political badinage on this blog - which is all good fun - but quite frankly; whoever wins the next election or even the one after that, will have an unholy mess to manage.
I think the choice at the next election is between having a really big mess or a stupendously big mess to clear up.
Spending money you haven't got to fix the problems created by spending money you haven't got doesn't scan for me.
As for Brown and Obama. If posturing was the economic miracle needed as a cure all then our beloved leader would truly be our saviour.
Unfortunately, it's a bit more difficult than that.
Do you agree Nick?
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235...
all North Sea Oli revenues wasted
all the state assets (utilities) sold off
a needless and irrelevant war - the Falklands - that to this day costs this Country billions
mass unemployment up to almost 4m
economic crisis after economic crisis
interest rates 15%
mortgage rates 12%
The Community Charge
inflation 14%
divided communities
no such thing as society
support for Apartheid Regime in South Africa
support for Mass Murderer Pinochet in Chile
sleaze
corruption....
and thats just Thatcher..
need I go on....
Thatcher was the most devisive Prime Minister in the history of UK politics...
even her own Party saw that and got rid of her....
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237
DONT TELL LIES...
There are currently more people employed in the UK than ever before...FACT
The FT100 - quite what relevance that is to the measure of a PM is beyond me - but if you want to count it as a measure...FT100 highest sustained growth and highest average rating between 1997 and 2008 - than any period in our history FACT!
-Housing "bust" as you put it...no where near the levels and intensity of 1991/92...under Thatcher and Major...I dont see whole estates and towns in negative equity , I dont see record levels of reposession...and I dont see Government doing nothing in the face of equity and reposession problems...
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OBAMANOMICS
Thanks very much Nic, for that one...
A new label that we could well do without, as the idiots the seem to run the country will think this new buzzword is 'cool' now, i.e. Obamanomics is automatically good by definition, in their simple little minds, because its different....
They won't have a clue what it means, but will jump on the bandwagon to join the club and appear cool and trendy. Its a bit like designer spectales that have square lenses. My observation is that most people have eyeballs that are round - unless of course you come from a different planet !
And with labels like Obamanomics in circulation, we'll no doubt hear smart-arses in designer specs coming up with clever-sounding phrases like; Obamanomics is the new Thatcherism...
Which just causes everybody's attention to be lost from the fact that it means accumulating Trillions more dollars of debt whilst we're still struggling to pay back the first few hundred trillion ...
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"I said that this would be a Budget based on prudence for a purpose and that guides us also in our approach to public spending"
GB, 1998
"I am determined that as a country we never return to the instability, speculation, and negative equity that characterised the housing market in the 1980s and 1990s."
GB, 1997
"In the early 1990s imprudent assumptions about debt and related mistakes in fiscal policy contributed to the boom and bust that did so much damage."
GB, 2002
"Those in this House who have forecast recession and those who have called our spending unaffordable have been consistently wrong and with the most recent figures published today for both economic growth and receipts, they are wrong again."
GB, 2005
The man is off his rocking horse.
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#239 greatandydudley
Do you not think that almost all of the points you mention here could actually be applied to the present government - after almost 12 years in office?
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#240
"There are currently more people employed in the UK than ever before...FACT"
Yes but most of them weren't living here before....FACT.
Labour's core vote is still at home watching daytime TV.
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236 - Exactly right...
I do NOT ever indicate that Brown is right.....as a political person I do like to balance an argument - in this case what DC is palpably failing to do...
Too many people rely on intellect and craft to diseminate what Brown is or is'nt doing - its objective - it may be right -it may not be right...
There is one simple political fact...
Intellect and great exapnasive political argument NEVER wins elections...
PRAGMATISM wins elections...
Your vote,like my vote,is ultimately the same vote as some neandertal slob totally disinterested in politics - if he or she on a whim places his or her x by the name of any cansisate - they effectively have the same voice as you or i....
the fact is...
Brown is a political beast...DC is a political juvenile...
whether thats the right or wrong criteria to decide the leader of the country is irrelevant...its a fact...
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#239
"Thatcher was the most devisive Prime Minister in the history of UK politics...
even her own Party saw that and got rid of her...."
Here's a quote from our dear leader Gordon in 2007:
"I think Mrs Thatcher, Lady Thatcher, saw the need for change and I think whatever disagreements you have with her about certain policies - there was a large amount of unemployment at the time which perhaps could have been dealt with better ? we have got to understand that she saw the need for change. I also admire the fact that she is a conviction politician. She stands very clearly for principles. I believe, and I have said before, that I am also a conviction politician. I am convinced about certain things, that we have got to support the talent of every individual in the country, that people have got to respect other people, that we have got to have a work ethic that works, that we have got to have discipline, as I have said, in our communities, and that is the only way with families working well and communities well, that we can do well as a country. So I am a conviction politician like her, and I think many people will see Mrs Thatcher as not only a person who saw the need for change in our country and took big decisions to achieve that, but also is and remains a conviction politician, true to the beliefs that she holds. "
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"#240
-Housing "bust" as you put it...no where near the levels and intensity of 1991/92...under Thatcher and Major...I dont see whole estates and towns in negative equity , I dont see record levels of reposession...and I dont see Government doing nothing in the face of equity and reposession problems... "
Give it time...we are at the beginning of the recession, we will see how well we're doing in a year or two.
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GAD
You write a considered analysis in #226 and then revert to utter tosh mode in #239
Will the real GAD stand up?
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The one point that seems to be ignored by David Cameron and his many supporters as seen in the responses to this blog is what his policies would do to help shorten the recession we've just entered into. Its all very well to say that the policies adopted by the government are wrong/inadequate but that isn't a solution. If Cameron's policy is to reduce government spending I fail to see how that helps since it will cost jobs (do people seriously think that any government spending including the £15bn for ID cards isn't mainly made up of staffing costs?).
I hardly think that making more people redundant going into a recession is likely to help speed up the process of recovery.
By all means slag off government policies but surely an opposition must also suggest what they'd do differently and be able to back up why this would be an improvement.
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The fact of the matter is that all the polls of recent months have put Cameron and Osborne a good way behind Brown and Darling on the question of who the public trust to run the economy.
2 reasons for that:
1. Despite recent events and the scaremongering coming from some quarters people still know that we've experienced some of the best growth and prosperity we have ever had during the time of this Labour govt.
2. The situation in the late 80s and early 90s was so dire under the Conservatives that it would take Gordon Brown to crazy and appoint Ronald McDonald to the MPC before people start trusting the Tory's judgement on the economy over Labour's.
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Blaming Mrs Thatcher for our present ills is a red herring but becoming a bad habit for those who wish to deflect attention away from the last 3 administrations. There are at least 4 groups to blame for our present lack of preparedness including the P.M. himself, The USA, The bankers and the reckless individual borrowers. The problem is not only global as yours truly would have us believe and it is not down to David Cameron or Mrs Thatcher!
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248 - GAD I hope is more 226...
must need more medication LOL...
Off to watch PMQ's now!
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greatandydudley - "a needless and irrelevant war - the Falklands - that to this day costs this Country billions"
Well, our territory, where a huge majority of the residents wish to remain British, was invaded by Argentina, hardly needless and irrelevant.
You must be thinking of Iraq, the needless and irrelevant war that Blair and Brown took us into, despite a large section of the public being vehemently opposed to it.
They also lied about the reasons for it.
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"2. The situation in the late 80s and early 90s was so dire under the Conservatives that it would take Gordon Brown to crazy and appoint Ronald McDonald to the MPC before people start trusting the Tory's judgement on the economy over Labour's."
Well, Gordon isn't exactly stable is he, and McDonald's has a better credit rating than the UK.
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227. Dudley: listen to the news. I heard it first about an hour or so ago on LBC. Pound fallen dramatically - Black Wednesday - against the Euro. OK Euro here we come - Brown and Bush and Snr. Bush's plans come to fruition.
Don't say I didn't tell you!
Who or what is Gideon?
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Nick change the subject to the falling pound and Euro quickly!
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Well, (Heaven forbid), if Brown does call an election and wins it, he is going to have to deal with the terrible mess he has created with our economy. Spending cuts, tax rises and a humiliating trip to the IMF for a bailout are all going to happen over the coming years. A drop in general living standards is inevitable, since the country is broke - Brown squandered all the money whilst the good times were rolling.
I hate the idea of this useless, increasingly evil Labour cabal winning the next election, but at least there will be Schadenfreude to relish.
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#257
You've missed the point.
It won't be Brown's mess. It will be global, and he will be our saviour.
Yes - there really are folk out there who believe that guff.
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# 257:
Exactly. A part of me wishes they would somehow get back in to deal with their own mess. A later vote of no confidence in them as their policies fail and The Economy shatters would be poetic justice but of little use to any of us in the long run! Rather DC gets in to steady the ship.
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251.
No, the credit problem is not down to Thatcher, but perhaps the biggest issue facing most people out there is the extortionate price of gas, for which we are being fleeced by those lovely entrepreneurial chaps from Eon, Centrica etc. Now remind me again who it was who advised us to 'tell Sid' to buy shares in British Gas, allowing overseas megacorps to buy our utility companies?
There's no way any UK government could get away with hiking gas bills by 50% in a year. There's no way that a UK government would have the gall to blame it on the fact that they paid the year's top price for it earlier- so we have to underwrite their poor business decisions.
As for Cameron, sure he's not to blame for this crisis.
But what would he have done with the UK banks over the past year?
He consistently opposed any state support for NR, B&B, RBS, HBOS etc.
This policy would have been an utter disaster for Britain, both in the short and long term.
Penniless savers, a run on the UK banks, no financial services industry ever again in the UK. This would have been permanent damage to the UK.
As things stand, if we crawl out of this mess in a year or two, with only a colossal national debt and / or a devalued currency, we will still be in a less terrible state than under Cameron's 'plan'- no UK banks left, starvation, and anarchy. He showed then that he cannot be trusted to forget his principles in favour of pragmatism.
Brown is doing just that, right now, and there is no one on this blog who would do any different in his shoes.
Even the Swiss government, yes the one with the hard currency of secrecy and tax evasion, is pumping money big time into its banks.
For all Cameron's bluster, he'd be at the pumps with Barack and Gordon if he was in office.
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Was there a global selling off of gold at low prices?
Was there a global denial of "Tory boom and bust"?
Was there a global smash-and-grab on pension funds?
Was there a global refusal to reform the handouts system?
A: No.
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#249:
Someone else who has been taken in by Gordon Brown's Commons jibe of the 'Do nothing Party'. If he says it often enough many people it seems are eventually taken in by it. David Cameron has set out a number of policies to deal with the present crisis but of course he can't carry them out because he's not in power. Gordon Brown bears some responsibility for our present position. The source is America. The lack of readiness is down to The Government.
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I'd rather "do nothing" than blow £500bn of borrowed money.
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Gordon's banging on about saving the world again.
Haha what a doofus.
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#260:
Like the user name. If I had one similar it would be 'BarcelonaMoscow9908' Anyone care to guess why?
Nobody knows what Cameron would have done with The UK banks because he didn't have access to the books.
Savers aren't exactly shouting from the top of the rooftops at the moment with interest rates approaching 0% and there is of course a concerted run on sterling worsening today.
We won't be crawling out of this mess in a year or two either. You've been listening too much to Alistair Darling's wild claims.
You seem to think that emerging from this with a colossal National Debt and a heavily reduced currency is a good option. I don't think so.
Finally, you say that noone would do things differently to what Gordon Brown is doing now. I beg to differ.
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262.
The 'lack of readiness' to which you refer, does it equate to a lack of an effective crystal ball?
There is no country in the world which was ready for a financial crisis of this magnitude. We were no more or less unready than any other western country.
At least Brown took some decisive action on the banks, which has had some positive effects. He was at least 'ready' to intervene for all our sakes, and was not 'ready' to let our entire financial sector 'collpase' for good, just for the sake of free-market principles.
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#262
I hardly see why my questioning of DC's policies is in any way indicative of me being 'taken in' by GBs jibe. I am merely questioning how these policies of DC are going to help the economy climb out of recession. The one example I gave of DC's suggestion of cutting government spending would not seem to me to be helpful at this juncture.
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#267 I am merely questioning how these policies of DC are going to help the economy climb out of recession.
How will borrowing £500bn to get ourselves out of a crisis caused by bad debt help?
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260#
I cant remind you who sold off the utilities (bad decisions are bad decisions, whoever took them), but I can remind you who told OFGEM to remove the annual 5% Fuel price increase cap from 2005 onwards and to make domestic fuel subject to 5% VAT.
Any ideas???? Coming back to you yet???
No, I didnt think it would.
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#266:
The lack of readiness was nothing to do with a crystal ball. Anyone with an ounce of common sense keeps something by for hard times instead of running the coffers completely dry and beyond. DC wouldn't have let our financial institutions collapse for good. Come on!
#267:
David Cameron wasn't suggesting a cut in Government spending merely a cut in the projected increase. Anyway The Government has now said that it will be adopting the same approach albeit to a lesser degree so do you disagree with this way of thinking or not?
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#266
"There is no country in the world which was ready for a financial crisis of this magnitude."
There are countries who did not sell off their gold reserves at historic lows; there are countries that did not raid pension funds for extra cash; there are countries that do not allow vast swathes of their country to claim benefits for being lazy; there are countries that refused to accept that "boom and bust" was at an end and saved money for such situations.
To quote Gordon in today's PMQs "we have saved the world"
The man lives on a different planet. His sanity must be called into question.
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It appears that the Maximum Leader has now proclaimed himself saviour of the world in PMQ.
And there are still people who have no qualms as at all about the man's sanity or his grip of economic reality.
See printing press. Set to '11'. Switch 'on'.
It's like when we were at school and we thought it would be great if everybody could be millionaires. Squillionaires even.
I think Gordon still has that mind-set.
Looks like we won't have much longer to wait.
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255/256
May I suggest then you call LBC - Ask to speak to the Programme Editor...
challenge him on the fact they have broadcast factually incorrect information about the sterling issue..
As at now 1307pm...
The Pound is trading marginally UP - On the Opening Daily figure against both the us Dollar and the Euro...
I always check currency prices on BBC Business pages...they are always broadly accurate..
LBC should be very very careful that they dont create a sterling crisis by incorrect and factually incorrect information prejudicial to the markets...
In fact I am going to contact Ofcom...
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While Cameron is busy trying to save Damian Green...
Gordon is busy trying to save the world!....
Just about sums up British politics at the moment...
Slip of the tongue maybe...but never a truer word has been spoken!
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This whole argument beggars belief. Gordon Brown has our economy running on empty so that we are ill prepared for a bust and then blames David Cameron for not wanting to do anything about it. It's partly his mess for which he has not apologised and yet he expects The Opposition to provide the voters with unequivocal answers to his predicament. We've known for many years that much of the money he has spent has disappeared down a bottomless pit!
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If Gordon Brown is saviour of the world then I'm a dutchman. He can't even save the people in his own back yard!
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Pound hits a record low against the Euro today:
More economic gloom for the UK - the pound's hit a record low against the euro.
At its low point, one pound bought just under 1.14 euros - its weakest-ever showing against the single currency and a blow for holidaymakers planning festive trips.
The pounds been put under further pressure amid growing concerns that interest rates will fall to all-time lows below 2 per cent next year.
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277 "blow for holidaymakers planning festive trips!"
WHAT ABOUT A BLESSING IN DISGUISE FOR OUR EXPORTERS - who should be making hay while the sun shines.....with British Goods being more competitively priced than ever...
For a decade all the Tory Party has bleated on about is the pound being over-valued as it affects our exporters....
Lets manufacture our way out of recession....whilst the relatively weak pound is actually beneficial to our exporters!...
Thousands of jobs in Britain will be saved by a weak pound...because Global institutions will quickly calculate items manufactured here can and will sell better than items manufactured in the zones where the dollar and the Euro are artificially high!
THATS PRETTY BASIC 10 YEAR OLD ECONOMICS...Mr Cameron!
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The
BBC always provide good references to Sterling trends.
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Quote: 'In so doing, Labour wants to paint him as being isolated from the international consensus. '
And what if that consensus is wrong?
Three words Nick - Emperor's New Clothes.
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#278:
But you said the pound was marginally up. Which is it? A weak pound is good for some but not for others. Swings and roundabouts.
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279...In a global crisis the pound is between a rock and a hard place eg the dollar and the Euro - both far bigger currencies...
The only answer in the long term - as my earlier post - is to join the Euro....
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269.
Go on, then, Fubar, tell me who put VAT on heating fuel?
As for the 5% cap on fuel-price rises, it would be unenforceable in a privatised free-market like ours.
This is another example, after the banks, of the Tories first wanting to have a free-market system, even for essential national infrastructure, for ideological reasons, but then bleating when it went wrong that Brown didn't regulate it enough.
Yet, that is. You can bet at least a pound, or indeed a euro (whichever is worth less) that drastic regulation of the energy rip-off merchants, and a big price cut, is coming in the New Year. Probably about the same time as GB calls the election.
Yes, Labour spin, blah, blah.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Hang on, Nick, you're trying to suggest that the French and the Japanese are following Gordon's lead; that's just plain wrong.
The french despise Brown, and, like the germans and most other countries, they think that the details of Brown's "fiscal stimulus" is illogical, costly, and just plain mad.
All countries who can provide a fiscal stimulus are doing so, but they're doing it off their own backs, in a viable way for them, with sound economic reasoning. Brown is just throwing money around at random things hoping some of it might stick and he's not doing anything which makes sense (2.5% vat rate making everyone going out to spend all their money? it's madness)
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270.
To make a meaningful difference now, the UK would have needed to have kept a truly massive war-chest back for a 'rainy day'. No country, aside from the Saudis and the Chinese, have such a huge surplus.
This would have meant much higher taxation during the period 2001-5. 30% basic rate, 60% top rate, or the equivalent.
For all we know, the world could quite easily have suffered an extremely sharp downturn post 9/11 had not central banks and governments provided a big stimulus during that period.
I do not recall Tories or anyone else calling for either rate-hikes or tax-hikes then. They may have spent a bit, but only a bit, less on public services in those years had they been in office. This would certainly not have saved more than a tiny fraction of the 100s of billions needed over the next few years, to attempt to fix what the world's greedy banks broke- global capitalism.
I certainly don't recall Tories calling for banks to be subject to more regulation in the past. That would have prepared us much better for, and might even have stopped, this crisis, but it would have been yet another example of the red-tape, nanny-state, Stalin etc. so beloved of all those free-market bloggers out there.
The Cameron plan would be like treating a gunshot wound with paracetamol.
Even if Brown's method is more expensive for us all, at least he's keeping the patient alive with a drip-feed of borrowed blood. Britain will be back one day. maybe after 5 years, as we recovered from the 70s 80s and 90s recessions..
On the UK banks, Cameron has opposed every intervention. HBOS and RBS would have certainly gone down in September/ October had Brown not acted, and with them all depositors' cash over 35K. The 'collapse' in confidence which followed would have killed off any hopes that UK banks would be trusted with money for a long time to come. Then, we would have seen a proper sterling 'collapse'.
You'd also have seen runs on banks all over the world, and a real emergency situation.
All for the sake of a sink-or-swim ideology.
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281 sicilian29
"A weak pound is good for some but not for others. Swings and roundabouts."
Speaking personally, the current total worthlessness of the pound is very good for me as I'm essentially an exporter of services.
Since the pound entered freefall we've noticed a huge increase in americans coming to us (a uk company) asking us to do work for them, because even though our prices (in pounds) haven't changed, the cost to the americans has dropped through the floor.
The uk market is now non-existent thanks to Brown; exporting products/services is now the only way to keep afloat in my business (i.t.) - there is no domestic market left anymore.
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286 MunichMadrid7980
I don't think I'd put the 80s and 90s recessions into the same category as the 70s; the 70s was more of a total economic collapse than a recession, along the lines of where zimbabwe is now (and where we're headed in 12 months time).
Recessions are part of the natural cycle (Brown is the only person on the planet who doesn't believe in such a thing as natural economic cycles), whereas intentionally ruining the economy through active negligence is an altogether different thing.
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Does anyone here know of one successful example, either on an individual level or a company level or at nation level, where you can actually borrow your way out of debt?
I am aghast at the lack of journalistic integrity at the BBC for not investigating Browns plan to save the world in more detail.
I guess attacking the BBCs "old" enemy - the Tories, is more important than the story?
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210 cybermichaelbarnes
See Grawth @ 178
Labour is the do nothing different party.
But there will be CHANGE
From tax and spend, to spend then tax.
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286 MunichMadrid7980
wrote..
"To make a meaningful difference now, the UK would have needed to have kept a truly massive war-chest back for a 'rainy day'. "
Didn't SuperGord inherit from Ken Clarke an economy that delivered a 40 Billion 'War Chest'? and that was before he surfed the biggest expansion in the world economoy for the last 10 yrs!
Where has all that money gone?
also.. "This would have meant much higher taxation during the period 2001-5. 30% basic rate, 60% top rate, or the equivalent."
I can sort of agree with that, seems Gordo did the spend that those tax rates would have allowed without actually taking the tax. Oh sorry, he taxed the British public to within an inch of their lives, yes i remember now and still overspent.
and finally..
"For all we know, the world could quite easily have suffered an extremely sharp downturn post 9/11 had not central banks and governments provided a big stimulus during that period."
Maybe the downturn would have been better than a continuing inflation of the credit/asset price bubble that has ultimately burst.
Painful to lance a boil I believe, but possibly necessary!
and a riposte to those promoting the Conservative 'do nothing' viewpoint...
http://www.conservatives.com/Policy/Where_we_stand/Economy.aspx
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The article in today's Telegraph which questions Gordon brown's blaming of America sums up my thoughts perfectly!
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291.
Even if he did inherit 40 billion from Ken Clarke, which is not true, but never mind...
This pales into insignificance beside what needed to be spent on UK infrastructure, after 18 years of deliberate running down / selling off, by guess which party, partly for politcal reasons.
GB also made 22 billion by selling off 3G telecom licences in 98/99, riding on the dotcom bubble, and used the proceeds to pay back some of the national debt inherited from guess whom...
All those 'he sold our gold at low prices' merchants never mention that he sold the 3G licences at the absolute top valuation, to the taxpayer's benefit.
His decision to make the BOE independent also had the immediate effect of reducing long-term interest rates on gilts, also saving us many billions, a real long-term policy.
Even now, with this 'black-hole', long-term gilts yield only 4%, have a look at what they were between 1979-97.
I'm not saying Brown is perfect, but he has got most economic policy decisions correct up to now.
The two areas which he has got wrong are energy policy and banking regulation. He failed, along with everyone else, to predict that left to their own devices the banks would screw themselves and us by lending themselves silly, and buying junk at crazy prices. He also failed to predict oil prices of 140$ plus at a time of economic slowdown.
I suppose for those failings he deserves to be compared with Mugabe and Stalin. The Great British public, you couldn't make it up!
I'd emigrate, but it's too expensive, and anyway I'd be in the company of all these Daily Mail readers on this blog, who seem destined to leave these shores for good.
Sack Gordon because the world's banks followed the, er, Tory philosophy!
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"No More Boom and Bust" Brown would have the right idea if he'd saved during the years of plenty so he could spend in the years of famine. Trouble is, now he's stoking the cycle - when we come out of the recession we'll have to pay off trillions in debt, and it will be even harder to justify austerity during the next boom.
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294.
[see 293] we could never have saved enough for a crisis of this magnitude, without killing off our economy with massive tax hikes.
The story of Brown is the story of mankind, just when you think you've got it made, something comes and bites a sensitive part of your anatomy.
On UK politicians in general, they find it hard to propose or do what's right for this country, usually slightly higher taxes, because the minute they propose even the tiniest increase for a minuscule sub-section of the taxpaying population all you can hear is political opponents, plus newspapers etc warning of a 'tax bombshell'.
They can only do what's right for a short 'honeymoon' period, because for a while after the are elected they get to blame things like tax hikes on the previous government.
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The "Do nothing monologue" from most of the Labour spokespeople is just the new spin, and the more they use it to obfuscate and deflect attention to the Tories, then the more it should be clear that their policies aren't working. For all the frantic thrashing around, HMS UK is still taking on water and those doing the rowing are getting more and more tired while the passengers and officers eat all the food and p*ss into the drinking water whilst making more and more ludicrous demands.
It would be nice to think that after 3 terms of labour that the electorate would be alert to spin. But the polls show that the incessant lying by labour is actually starting to have the opposite effect and people are starting to believe labour. Incredible but true.
The Conservatives don't have an answer (to the spin), and clearly having policies and suggestions, even when they are adopted by Labour, is not enough to counter the lies. It's not just GB, most of the cabinet are word perfect on "the message". The fact that so many of the Labour front bench lie so consistently gives the lie a sort of credibility. By comparison, the lack of cohesiveness in the Tory reply adds to the credibility of their attackers. Policies are swept away and all the electorate see is a chorus of unanswered attacks, albeit childish rhetoric, but the silence smells of weakness.
The Tories need a consistent answer. Given that the Labour spin is based on obvious lies and that there is so much material to choose from with which to mount a counter attack, fighting fire with fire would be effective. After all, the British electorate have lapped up spin for three elections, and appear to be starting to do so again.
I would like to think that DC thinks that the electorate deserve better than this, and hence the lack of return spin. I want Labour out no matter what it takes, so on the off chance that the Conservatives lack inspiration for return spin, let me offer a minor brainstorm to start the thinking going:
1. Labour were feckless during the boom and did nothing to curtail financial excesses. Now they are desperately trying anything to hang on to power, so - the "Did nothing then, try anything now" party, or
2. a little more lyrical, given that Labour didn't see this crisis coming, how about the "Viewless then, Clueless now" party or,
3. My favourite given GB's recent gaff, the intensely personal nature of the tiff between "leaders" and my hope that, like charity, recovery from recession begins at home, how about for our beloved leader, "World Saviour, Home Wrecker"?
That said, the time for childishness should be long gone given the state we are in. But just meekly repeating their policies is no answer to Labour spin.
When dear Tony left, it seemed that the country had had enough of spin. Gordon came in and even promised to listen more and spin less. I'm not sure that he ever listened more, but with the departure of Campbell, Mandelson (and Blair), the spinning was less sophisticated and may well have reduced for a while.
Classic spin is just using clever words or ambiguity to say one thing and mean another. Lying in simple terms. Politicians allways lie so maybe, "what's the big deal?". The subtlety of spinning has wounded voters more than simple lying bacause of the trickery. Gordon's favourite form of lying is hiding the devil in the detail and he just can't help doing that. He may even consider it a strength. The latest and newest form of lying is having so many people tell the same lie consistently at every question answering opportunity, and tying it up with a bow: "Do nothig leader, do nothing party". (Conservatives who were quoted as saying "let the recession run its course" should be taken out and shot btw, who's side are they on?
My suggestion therefore in response to the Labour taunts is to denounce all lies as spin, and in particular the taunts as "the latest spin", whenever they are trotted out. The electorate hate spin as they hated Tory sleaze (as do I). The poor dears can't always spot it and this crisis has taken their eye off the ball. Time to remind them again and again, what a lieing, two-faced, deceitful lot this labour croud is. If GB is spinning then he's not listening either and he has broken his promise. Don't trust GB, don't trust Labour.
If Spinning does for Labour just as Sleaze did for the Tories, then there would be some poetry in that.
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Nick:
'Obamanomics'...is the simpler way to get out of the recession or the economic downturn...Since the private industry is not spending as much money, as some parties think they do....
~Dennis Junior~
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