Null points from the Berlin jury
One minute, Gordon Brown says he's saved the world. The next, the German finance minister tells us that Mr Brown is, in fact, saddling "a whole generation" with debt by "tossing around billions" in a "yearning for the Great Rescue Plan" even though "[i]t doesn't exist. It doesn't exist!"
Speaking to Newsweek, Peer Steinbruck goes on to say: "I say we should be honest to our citizens. Policies can take some of the sharpness out of it, but no matter how much any government does, the recession we are in now is unavoidable", before adding that: "[w]hen I ask about the origins of the crisis, economists I respect tell me it is the credit-financed growth of recent years and decades. Isn't this the same mistake everyone is suddenly making again, under all the public pressure?"
Only a few weeks ago, Team Brown was telling us that Germany had proved the case for a fiscal stimulus by unveiling one of its own.
Now, however, we're told that the Germans are resisting calls for an EU-wide stimulus thanks to tensions in the Grand Coalition of parties of the left (the finance ministers from the SPD) and the right (the chancellor leads the CDU) that governs the country. It would be surprising if there were not tensions, not least with elections in Germany next year. However, there is one problem with this theory. Chancellor Merkl told her party congress this month that: "[w]e will not take part in a competition to outdo one another with an endless list of new proposals, in a senseless contest over billions".
Now, there are other theories being offered, too:
• having just suffered politically by raising VAT, the German government doesn't welcome comparisons with Britain where it's just been cut;
• the Germans fear that they will, as ever, be expected to foot the bill for any EU-wide stimulus;
• they have bad memories of the G5's Bonn summit in 1978 when they felt bullied by America to adopt an expansionary growth package which later fuelled German inflation;
• they have even worse memories of the rampant inflation which helped to create the conditions which led to the rise of Hitler.
There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum.
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" I THINK WE SHOULD BE HONEST WITH
OUR CITIZENS"
Classic line HOW ABOUT HONESTY BROWN?
HONESTY? YES HONESTY!
SO HARD TO BE HONEST??
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Yes, publicise this more. It is right on the money.
Let's hear it for common sense.
Have to say it again, watch for the hustling and jostling by Brown, during or after the festive season when spirits are high, to push us into the Euro.
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MIND YOU AS MUGABE SAYS
The cholera problem is sorted
What does Brown say?
WE HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS??
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A politician who changes his mind every day and never says what he does or does what he says...
Steinbrunck and Cameron seem ideal political bedfellows!
-Germany has raised VAT!
-Germany has pumped £300m sterling equivalent in to recapitalising the banks
-Steinbrunck is at odds with the right wing of his coalition....
Best check Camerons ancestry....he and this buffoon must be related...
Do nothing Dave and Nein Nein Nein Peer...
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Will Brown ever LEARN???
THE CAUSE OF A PROBLEM
IS NOT THE SOLUTION TO A PROBLEM.
EDUCATION !EDUCATION!EDUCATION!
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Brown is playing double or quits. If he succeeds, the recession will be a bit less bad than it might otherwise have been. If he fails God help us all.
But the real problem is not that UK PSBR is excessive, or will be even after the stimulus. Rather, individuals and the banks are hugely over-borrowed. With hindsight, UK Government should have prevented the banks securitising their debts. Trouble is, this would have been presented by the Conservatives as unwarranted interference, would have held down house prices (a good thing in retrospect), and would have led to Labour being voted out of office. So we face a long period of depression while these huge debts are paid off. Something like a trillion pounds of credit has to be taken out of the economy, permanently. It is the collective fault of all of us (individuals and banks) for over-borrowing in the first place.
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Nick..thanks for a good piece..and to quote you....
"There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum."
Would you care to honour us with your analysis of why Mr Steinbruck might be more on the side of Camerons thinking?
Could this be a subtle acknowledgment of yours that Brown just might be wrong?
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The really sad thing is that Freud was right. In the heat of the moment, Brown DID say what he really really believes.
Can the draconian powers of this government's Mental Health Act be applied to itself?
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With Germanys social welfare costs due to unification it is no surprise that they can't afford to add to the already £300bn they have given the banks.
No wonder they are hacked off about VAT reduction etc, they can't afford it and will be under pressure from their electorate to mirror measures taken by the rest of the world.
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Brown is indeed taking a big risk, but the polls have consistently suggested that the public trusts him over Cameron. That has to count for something.
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Steinbrook's quite correct, and many on the left who are cheering Brown's action are doing so out of genuine ignorance or political affiliation rather than actual concern of the future of the UK.
The German's themselves have had to bail out their banks, but they're starting to realize that trying to halt the collapse of the debt mountain with more debt isn't just delaying the inevitable, but is downright senseless.
Whats worse is Browns stimulus package was drowned out by the price cuts already having to be made, thus making it useless from the get-go.
Sterling is dropping, investors aren't terribly interested in buying our debt and we're pushing close to losing our credit status.
At a time we need real statesmen, it appears that all three parties can only bring forth economic lightweights.
Browns political obituary will be one of dithering, ineptitude and a capacity for honesty on a par with Jeffery Archer.
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7. Cannot and will not let his personal political thoughts colour his professional or personal life. He HAS to be seen to be impartial.
It's no use anybody trying to wheedle anything out of him like that.
He is a professional journo. - top of his tree.
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What's interesting about this is that the outspoken nature of this attack on Brown's policies was seen as against normal diplomatic protocol.
This implies that there could be a great deal more politicians that disagree with McIdiot but who are hiding behind diplomatic niceties.
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All our collective faults?
Surely not? Was it not the conservatives who masterminded the big bang in finance, was it not Brown and Co who watched as bank after bank increased mortgage availability to unprecedented levels?
Yes, we are all in trouble, but of the available culprits, Brown and the bank excecutives are wholey to blame.
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Herr Steinbruck is absolutely, 100%, definitely, right. Thank God a politician somewhere has the courage to say it.
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Brown has done an enormous U-turn rendering his credibility a serious blow.
His policies are based on hot-air that even he probably doesn't even believe in his heart of hearts. He is just enjoying his "Superman" image following the battering he deservedly got before the collapse of Goldman Sachs etc.
But he is living on borrowed time, both metaphorically AND financially.
Steinbruck is talking sense.
The UK should listen.
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I am so fed up with hearing posters make comments about how 'we all' over borrowed...lived beyond our means...didn't save...etc etc.
A lot of us don't have large debts and have actually saved...and are now being kicked in the teeth.
But basically...who would you rather believe...those who run the German economy...or those who run the British economy?
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Nick
Well done
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The Germans think very differently to us as regards the economy. They don't do debt, meaning they don't borrow money knowing they can't pay it back.
100% mortgages were not available in Germany and credit cards are used by very few people. The saving rate per household is good (approx 12%) and rising, and current account surplus is expected to reach 6% of GDP this year.
This is why Germany is much better placed to get through this than the UK, and why their Finance Minister has reacted in the way he has.
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Peer's talking down the economy.
Given that he's resident abroad and this action could conceivably be "to the detriment of the UK economy (or part of it)", shouldn't we issue a freezing order on all his UK assets? I suppose, being a finance minister in Germany, we could possibly freeze all of Germany's UK assets.
Good old anti-terrorism legislation!
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Or maybe this is just an example of our German friends engaging in some hard-nosed, cold-hearted and economically-detailed consideration of the Brown/Darling 'plan'. Something most financial commentators in the UK have chosen, for perhaps political reasons, not to do.
The Brown/Darling plan is deeply flawed. The use of VAT as a means of stimulating the economy is faintly ridiculous. As Vince Cable said, the Government should have invested directly in capital projects (affordable homes, power stations, railways, etc.) to create real jobs and to reinforce core sectors of the economy. And, because land prices are currently so depressed, these capital projects would probably yield a profit for the exchequer in the long-term. Consumers are looking for 25 to 50% discounts before committing their discretional funds. A cut in VAT will strip revenue from the exchequer but will never stimulate a compensatory demand. Just a dumb idea.
As for the state of the British finances, just look at the freefalling pound to get another sober view of the Brown/Darling plan.
But should we be surprised. Of course not. Gordon Brown is the longest serving finance minister (as Chancellor and PM) in all the major economies. He had sight of all the financial data that, as Robert Peston has detailed, clearly signposted the dangers of the credit-financed growth. He saw the data and did nothing to protect this economy and the world trading system.
Gordon Brown has many faults but, this abdication of his own responsibility is unforgivable.
The Brown/Darling plan is a bad and very dangerous botch job. It isn't even true to the Keynesian principles, as Labour are claiming. All credit to Herr Steinbruck for speaking the truth.
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To quote Brown on LBC in response to the German 'attack'...
"The important thing is that almost every country around the world is doing what we have been doing."
How many times have we heard this?
I would like to see a list of ALL those countries that have adopted Browns solutions,so we can see whether he is telling the truth ,or not.
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Mr Steinbruck is drawing a critical distinction which often seems to go unnoticed.
On the one hand, preventing a banking collapse is a legitimate and vital step; the money injected is in the form of debt or equity, which the taxpayer should ultimately recover.
On the other hand, however, injecting "fiscal stimulus" by using massive increases in debt is almost certainly futile, and will saddle future generations with huge debts, higher taxes and lower standards of living.
So Mr Steinbruck is right to draw this distinction, and Mr Brown is wrong to ignore it.
Ironically, the news that MoD may delay the construction of the new aircraft carriers seems bizarre - this is just the kind of capital programme that could actually help an important part of the economy!
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Steinbruck is spot on - we will be paying for Brown's profligacy for a generation, possibly longer.
Why did the BBC originally report this as 'Germany is Out Of Step' - the BBC should be more objective and not spin this - the truth is Steinbeck/the Germans are right and Brown is incompetent and wrong.
The Germans are out of step in the same way that a sane man in a lunatic asylum is out of step (sorry, no offence meant by the words lunatic asylum - is hospital for those suffering from mental disorders more pc?)
If devaluing the currency made a country more prosperous then Zimbabwe would be the richest country in the world.
How long will it be before Brown starts printing extra zeroes on our banknotes so that we can all pretend we are 'millionaires'?
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12....I was being rather sarcastic,as I suspect were you!
;-)
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I am shocked that this is even being reported.
It is obvious from the financial markets what the worldwide opinion of Mr Brown and his policies are.There is only himself that thinks we are in a good position and that he is the man for the job.....
To carry on he needs the backing of the people and that takes an election in May he will be shown what is thought of him all you Labour Euro Mp's should start selling your second and third homes because you will probably be out of a job come Mid May.
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How dare Steinbruck show such insolence to World Leader Brown. Everyone should (blindly) follow Brown's lead (like Lemmings). We all know that Britain is best positioned to recover from the downturn quickest - we only have the largest personal/consumer debt in the Europe and now public debt is also soaring:
The Centre for Economics and Business Research report said: “The UK is poorly placed due to the high levels of consumer debt and reliance on the consumer sector. In addition, government finances are in a poor position heading into the recession, with the public-sector deficit reaching a new record of around 6 per cent GDP in 2009/10.”
Downing Street retorted that Germany is out of step, as if they expect Germany to follow their lead. They might be out of step because they may realize they shouldn't go down the same dead end as the UK.
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#4 greatandydudley
For the sake of explaining the obvious point you have missed, Germany are not planning to borrow £500bn to saddle the next 3 generations of this country with a huge debt.
Germany will be laughing in the future, while we're paying interest monthly to the Saudis and Chinese.
You really are a bit of a naif aren't you....
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This is Keynsian vs Austrian economics.
Gordon thinks he can spend his way out of debt. Right. Like eat your way out of obesity...
The printing and spending is what got us into this mess. So printing and spending can scarcely be considered the cure.
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If we are heading towards a slump (as most economists agree) trying to 'balance the books' will be a road to mass unemployment; which will turn a deep recession into a depression.
As Germany is an exporter isn't in it's interests to help keep other economies afloat?
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Who is Steinbruck saluting in that picture?
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Nick says
There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says - - - .
A politician who believes what he says ???
Blimey, Nick, what kind of spin is that ?
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For weeks 'Flash' ..... aaaahhhh has been telling us the tories are on the wrong side of history. Well Mr Bean now who is wrong? CALL AN ELECTION AND LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE.... the big old cluncking baffoon or Cameron and his 5 points of how to get lending moving... oh yes, just last week one of ur backbenchers asked him for 5 points on what he'd do. and pleanty of people have said he's right. The british government isn't her to save the world it's here to work for British people..... remember that MR BROWN
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I suppose this analysis deserves some scrutiny before the NuLabour Spin machine tries to bury it in vitriol
...and are you implicitly suggesting that Cameron is indeed "going to do something"?
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To be pedantic, the German hyperinflation was in the early 1920's, not the 1930's (when the issue was massive unemployment and deflation) and its link to Hitler's rise was complex and indirect.
The inflation really got going when the German authorities began financing payments to workers striking against the French occupation of the Rhineland to enforce the payment of war time reparations by simply printing money. It ceratinly wiped out the savings of substantial sections of the German middle classes and shook their often already tenuous faith in the new democratic republic's ability to manage serious crises. In the long run this probably translated into votes for the NSDAP when times got hard again, but the linkage is less clear cut than is sometimes suggested.
It does however seem to be the case that the mainstream German political elites now firmly believe that the linkage did exist, that many in the German electorate share that belief and that this shared belief is important in shaping what "credible politics" looks like in Germany.
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I believe that it now costs twice as much to insure a UK bond against default than one issued by McDonalds.
How on this earth can anyone believe that we are well places to weather this recession when the markets rate a burger bar as a safer bet??
A very interesting piece in the Telegraph today...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3703785/Gordon-Brown-must-blame-himself-not-the-USA.html
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ROFL - twice in two days, Nick must be after a job in comedy!
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As John Redwood (see his website) pointed out (to be derided by Brown in the house) we need to accept lower living standards. Any country running an external deficit (perhaps to fund a government deficit, the "twin deficits problem") must eventually accept it will have to repay. In real terms, that means a lower standard of living. It can be achieved by a lower valued currency, and so higher prices, as long as the loonions do not seek pay rises to compensate.
Perhaps Steinbruck is simply defending the German decision to inject a relatively small amount into its economy (compared to other nations) and just become a free rider on other countries (which by boosting their own economies will increase imports from Germany and so boost its economy).
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Peer Steinbruck goes on to say: "I say we should be honest to our citizens. Policies can take some of the sharpness out of it, but no matter how much any government does, the recession we are in now is unavoidable",
* * * * *
Leonard James Callaghan, Baron Callaghan of Cardiff, KG, PC (27 March 1912 – 26 March 2005), Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1976 to 1979 and leader of the Labour Party from 1976 to 1980.
“We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step.”
Labour Party Annual Conference Report 1976, page 188.
Speech at the Labour Party Conference, 28 September 1976.
* * * * *
It is sad that Mr Brown has failed to learn from the past and dismisses the view’s of the German Finance Minister with such petulant arrogance.
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"Doing nothing" is preferable to "doing something" when the doing something will ruin our economy for the next 50 years.
It really is a shame that Labour apologists will toe the party line even if it means putting the country in hock to two of the world's most repressive regimes for the next half century.
Contrary to the #10 spin machine, Gordon is not our saviour. The man is a few shillings short of a pound, and due to this failings, this country will have an insurmountable debt for the forseeable future.
I mean Darling thinks we'll be out of recession by the summer. What planet is he living on?
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Nick.
Can we have a list of all the other countries that are borrowing on the never-never to get out of this debt-induced crisis?
I think we'd all like to see it, as you keep parroting what Mandelson tells you.....let's see the FACTS.
So, we know Germany isn't one of them. Is the list going to consist of countries like Zimbabwe?
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Just like his views on euthenasia GB & AD are trying to stop the inevitable. It won't work. Nothing will stop the impeding storm.
The best they can do is try and make it more bearable for people whose lives will be broken and whose homes lost.
This is what they should be doing.
Cameron hasn't got an inkling about this - he, and much of his party was born with platinum spoons their mouthes and cannot really relate to what a recession/ unemployment really means to those who have nothing.
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"There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum."
He might just be correct, that would put the BBC in a spin.
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Never thought I'd say it, but thank god for the Germans!!
The more contrary opinions there are to Crash's economic 'policy' the better.
I dont want my grandchildren to be taxed to oblivion in order to pay fo one mans ego and delusions of grandeur.
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Your either do something in the hope it helps the situation or you sit back and let it ride its course!
These sort of comments only go to harm the confidence the economy needs. What possible good can come out of saying such a thing?
Peer Steinbruck has no more an idea what is best and what will happen in the future than averge Joe on the street.
However what is known from preveous recessions is that if you do nothing it can be very bad indeed.
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#17
"But basically...who would you rather believe...those who run the German economy...or those who run the British economy?"
Erm, easy question. Those who run the German economy. Those who run the British economy are either mentally not fit-for-purpose, or are so desperate to preserve the careers, they will nod in agreement with whatever Superman says.
Germany actually HAS an economy - they make things. We do not. Our economy is based on financial services. This area is going to be contracting greatly. We have nothing to fall back on.
So, again, I would trust the Germans over a Labour government here. Labour's track record is clear: Ramsay MacDonald, Attlee, Wilson, Callaghan, ....
We all know how they left the country....
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The reason nobody's doing any serious work is it's all water off a duck's back, and by the time we can get rid of the oiks, the UK will be history, endebted beyond any hope of recovery, because we bailed out the US rather than insististing they stood by their fraudulent valuations of dodgy housing stock.
OK, there's dodgy valuation been going on here too, but not to the extent HMG's got us into hock to.
As Rabbie Burns said, we've been bought and sold by English - strike that, make it Yankee - gold, what a parcel of fools in a Nation.
After all, it takes one to know one.
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#26
"There is only himself that thinks we are in a good position and that he is the man for the job....."
No, there's Nick Robinson also.
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And there we have it - the truth:
There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Deal with it Labour.
Sending up Ministers to tell us Gordon's plans are "The right thing to do" is not a justified counter criticism of the German perspective.
Neither Gordon Brown or Ed Balls seem able to defend the UK's stance and expand upon the benefits of the approach adopted by the UK.
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What colour shirt goes with Brown trewsers, Maggie? Ach, so...
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And there we have it - the truth:
There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Deal with it Labour.
Sending up Ministers to tell us Gordon's plans are "The right thing to do" is not a justified counter criticism of the German perspective.
Neither Gordon Brown or Ed Balls seem able to defend the UK's stance and expand upon the benefits of the approach adopted by the UK.
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And there we have it - the truth:
There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Deal with it Labour.
Sending up Ministers to tell us Gordon's plans are "The right thing to do" is not a justified counter criticism of the German perspective.
Neither Gordon Brown or Ed Balls seem able to defend the UK's stance and expand upon the benefits of the approach adopted by the UK.
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Not much from the labour luvvies yet, waiting to hear the spin they put on these comments
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24. Good analogy!
All Brown's stimulus will do is create debt and run the risk of higher inflation. The U.S.A. can better afford such a course of action as it is a far bigger economy and has a much more diversified industrial base than Britain. The German's don'y like Brown's agenda as, as Nick rightly points out, they know all to well what runaway inflation can lead to.
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"COMETH THE HOUR COMETH THE MAN" (OR WOMEN AGAIN)
Surely someone can announce via the media (Littlejohn most likely) of a protest rally outside Parliament to DEMAND this government of fools resign and new elections are held. If the Greeks can do it why not us?
THIS WILL NEVER GET POSTED AS THE ONLY JOURNALIST WITH THE () () TO TELL IT LIKE IT IS HAS BEEN NAMED.
End of wish.
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Sorry - my thoughts appear to have been posted multiple times - some sort of techno glitch
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Moderators showing they can't count again....please moderate in order!
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Brown, Darling et al are just incredibly stupid. Borrowing too much put the country seriously in the poo. Borrowing more is only going to exacerbate an already perilous situation.
If his policies enjoy worldwide approval why is sterling dropping like a stone? The answer is blindingly obvious to all but the numpties who run our country.
Brown was the worst Chancellor the UK has ever had. Darling is just his puppet and is intellectually wanting. All this shower of incompetents do is utter mindless sound-bites. They are beyond contempt.
Time for an election and pronto!!!!
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exactly what do you do Mr Robinson?-you don't make anything, you don't help anybody, you don't report news but opinion and innenuendo. Are you not one of many who should have been cut in the cost saving that is needed in the BBC to provide good quality and honest productions. And yet you appear on so many programmes with no real input other than what you think. I would perhaps listen to what you have to say if it had any value. Perhaps just now youhad your ilk have had their time and should go and get a real job which actually contributes something of worth to society-you actually cost people jobs and livelihood and there are a number of people who I spaek to are actually beginning to question your worth and contribution! I do wonder whether this will actually be allowed to be posted.
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Well there is a silver lining, for me at least.
Flying to Hong Kong to spend Christmas and New Year with my brother and anglo Chinese family. I bought the tickets well in advance which was a piece of luck as I was made redundant soon after.
But at least I now know that if a wing or engine falls off "SuperGordon" will appear and save the plane.
Brother has been in Hong Kong since 1978 and I have visited as often as I could afford (which has not been that often) but the HK Dollar is now about 11.48 to the Pound. I have never known the Pound soooooo low!!!
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Sounds to me like the Germans are being honest and cautious in the face of the crisis. If only our leaders showed us the same respect.
I await with bated breath for all the usual apologists to come along and tell us their usual lies about the Germans are perpetuating the crisis by "talking the economy down" and how the Tories are a "do nothing party"
I dream of one day having reputable and honest people in Westminster willing to do the right thing for the people rather than the right thing for themselves.
Naturally I hope to high heaven that our economy doesn't go down the pan but to suggest that anyone who doesn't blindly accept Gordon's version of events is part of the problem is a truly despicable tactic from NuLabour, not that anyone should be surprised of course.
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Be brave, be ambitious, kill a quango today
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Why do you "dare" to suggest?
I know it's only a turn of phrase but using it suggests that you are afraid of the consequences of what you say.
Could it be that you are slowly starting to realise that the route Brown is taking us down is not just wrong, but dangerously so?
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Congratulations to Herr Steinbruck.
Incidentally, more a Monetarist than a Keynesian, rightly so. Germany has been cutting direct taxation for many years switching to consumption based taxes instead.
I have said it, many people here have said it.
You cannot borrow your way out of recession.
It never, ever, ever offers a medium to long term solution to economic slowdown or recession.
With Sterling heading for Euro parity, interest rates at 2% (below the ECB), all those Treasury bonds are suddenly not looking such a great bet.
Which means forget 2% interest rates, they will have to rise to make UK debt attractive to hold for investors.
Exactly what happened in 1976-79, Callaghan's government had to hike rates to 15%.
We could, like Germany, manufacture and export our way out of this.
Only Gordon's policies have had manufacturers lose 1,000,000 jobs since 1997, big names have gone bust, others close down or downgrade their presence in the UK.
Because it's too expensive to do business in the UK thanks to Gordon's taxes.
Brown's policies are wrong.
We all have to cut our cloth accordingly, there is no free lunch for any industry, public or private.
1. Cut government spending.
2. Cut personal and business taxes.
3. Slash red tape and regulation.
4. Eliminate Waste.
UK plc has to become more productive and more business friendly.
And we have to live within our means.
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Well here we re again folks writing miles of complaint about what is wrong or sometimes right but offering nothing towards the debate as to how to resolve matters for the future.
Is it to difficult, or is it to horrific to unpopular to even debate the solution its certainly a lot easier to do nothing.
Problem is doing nothing will give more space to anarchy (see Greece) of course you can lie that you have the answer that will delay anarchy (see Zimbabwe).
If you want the indicator of who is on the right economic track and who is on the wrong tack take a look at the Dollar the Pound and the Euro.
We can not become a manufacturing exporter in hard economic times because basic products can be produced and distributed in the Far East, Eastern Europe, Africa and India and until we get back to world wide growth we will not be able to export our high value technology and service products.
In short we would in the West have been better of rather than give our money to our banks to have distributed it among the poor of eastern Europe and South America they would have then spent it on buying essentials food, warmth clothing ( basic Maslow’s hierarchy of needs) so improving their position.
That would have improved the wealth of the middle economies Russia China India etc who would then have bought our hi-technology from which we would earn money.
We may be a nation of shop keepers as one prominent European once accused us but given Woolworth’s position maybe not for much longer and we are nolonger the industrial power or basics for life manufacturing nation we were, no solace there then.
The banks will never earn anything for us again, only earn from us, until they can build a new false economy and that is going to be a long memory away from now.
Sadly blogs are turning the pen from being mightier than the sword to being a blunt penknife folded neatly away even more effective than the police are being in dealing with knife crime.
There that’s most of today’s news dealt with in a few short lines but to what avail.
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The country is entering recession.
We have some of the highest levels of both personal and public debt in the developed world.
Imagine we reduce this to a microcosm of one family, deep in debt. They need to spend to survive - heating, food, etc...
What do they do?
Tighten their belts and focus on the necessities?
Or go and get a shedload of credit cards, continue to buy plasma TVs, and other luxuries, knowing that they'll have to pay it all back someday?
I think most people would choose the first option. (Or perhaps not, as Brown has had his boom in this country by encouraging people to have unmanageable levels of debt....he is after all only following his own advice).
"There will be no return to Tory boom and bust" - Gordon Brown, talking out of his posterior yet again.
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46??
What are talking about? as if Germany has an excellent record on avoiding recessions or getting through them quickly!
Germany is already in recession adding that to the one in 1996 that would mean they have had two in the space of Britain is still not defined as having one yet!
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Good post Nick. Am I the only one to notice an absence of Labour supporters attempting to disprove?
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Nick
You missed the most important bit of the article:-
It doesn't exist. It doesn't exist! Dealing with an unprecedented crisis is a puzzle, a trial-and-error.
Brown built his (aparant) credibility on making plans and predictions, and then months later appearing to have been right.
He generally did this by wording his plans and predictions in such a way that whatever happened (within reason) he could claim that it is what he expected all along.
This is also contributes towards labour being considered liars in all but name.
However Brown has now painted himself into too many corners - he can't admit that it is best to work it out day by day, he is committed to having 'master plans', and committed to going through with them even when they turn out be wrong.
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Here's the Economist's view:
"With the housing-market boom unsustainable and mounting structural flaws—such as a dearth of skilled workers, a pension system that needs reform, and a lack of innovation—Britain's economic prospects look less bright. September 2007 saw Britain's first bank run in decades and in February 2008 the government nationalised Northern Rock, the bank that collapsed. Mervyn King, head of the Bank of England, is predicting a “marked slowing of growth” and “very weak” consumer spending in 2008 as inflation rises. "
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The Germans are offended by being sucked into the Brown and Mandelson dishonest media spinning process.
They know Mandelson better than we do.
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Some more views from the Economist....
"The governing Labour Party is bereft of ideas and direction, with the embattled prime minister, Gordon Brown, unable to exert his authority in the face of growing party indiscipline and the likelihood of an economic recession"
"The economic outlook is deteriorating rapidly. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects GDP growth to slow to 1% in 2008 and to contract by 0.2% in 2009."
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Hi Nick,
I really feel obliged to point out a major factual error in your blog. The 'rampant inflation' within the Weimar Republic took place in 1922 and 1923.
I should be surprised that you didn't know this. Unfortunately, the UK's education standards appear to be going down the drain. My university friend Gavin now lectures a course on Nazi Germany and he thought it happened in 1929?!?!?!?!?
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and balhamu hasn't got a clue how to answer this one has he?
Probably phoning the BBC right now to try get this post removed for favouring the tories.
Tough luck..the truth is out there and it's not spending more money to get you out of a problem caused by spending too much money.
As if we needed to be told.
So the next time Gordon Brown pipes up with his boasts about the world following his example the crowd will shout "oh no they're not!"
Call an election
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'Big Government' plans to pump the world's economy up with made-up money. Wasn't it made-up money that helped cause our economic problems in the first place?
If I shot myself in the foot I wouldn't shoot myself in the other foot to make it better.
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13. Jonno_79
Thats a really good point.
Given that brown keeps insisting that the rest of the world is following his 'plan' -- I wonder why Nick isn't speaking to some of the 'rest of the world' about this.
Maybe he anticipates his paymasters not liking what they will hear...
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Heritage Foundation in the US:
"The financial crisis certainly is serious, but Mr. Brown's suggested solutions would, for the most part, do little to prevent future crises; on the contrary, they could do great harm."
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I think we should call Ocean Finance to consolidate our debts and get an easy to manage single monthly payment. Britain probably isn't credit worthy enough to go to IMF any more.
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Nick
Just stopped eating my lunchtime boil of soup. One of your colleagues in Brussels is saying the the British are angry that a German minister has publically said that Brown's policy is wrong and that such disagreements should be aired in private.
Has the US government complained about Brown always saying that the only reason the UK economy is in trouble is because of the US problems??
back to the soup before it gets cold
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We will be back in the '70s. Anyone here remember the original (and best) 'Aufweidesen Pet'?
Situation comedy about a group of Btitish builders having to work in Germany and living on-site in portacabins because there was no work at home, it was based on fact. I knew lots of people doing the same at the time.
And here we go again... message for all you likely lads... get a German/English dictionary and start some German classes. You'll be needing them rather soon.
I'm grateful to Herr Steinbruck for pointing at the Emperor' s new clothes. Shame on the BBC for not doing so.
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Irwin Seltzer in the Telegraph today says;
"None of this is to deny that developments in an economy as large as America's have an impact on its trading partners and other countries. Or that America's bankers mismanaged risk. But it remains an incontestable fact that the Prime Minister is pointing a finger at America to conceal his mishandling of the British economy and, lately, the futility of some portions of the stimulus package he has crafted. Gordon Brown's search for a villain might better take him to the nearest mirror than to Washington, DC."
Oh dear, can it be true? Did Herr Steinbruck read this article and say, "At last some common sense. Why are we following this madman Brown?"
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At least another generation have now been educated as to why not to vote for Labour!
Even the scroungers are getting upset now that their free money is being taken away.
Roll on the general election.
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Brown is indeed taking a big risk, but the polls have consistently suggested that the public trusts him over Cameron. That has to count for something.
Chris leopard
And that makes him right - this is the same live in the moment public that have over extended themselves in the past decade and are now quite happy to borrow against their childrens future income as well - No doubt in 20 to 40 years time they'll also be whinging about why they dont have a pension worth talking about.
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Do our anti-terrorism police have a remit to operate in Germany??
Peer Steinbruck needs to be a bit careful, if they do...
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I've been telling you this for months, Nick.
Brown/Labour/BBC are the only people who believe/peddle Brown's "I am the messiah" message.
All other countries have been openly criticising/ridiculing Brown and they've all been saying for months that his "plans" are stupid and dangerous. But for some reason the BBC haven't been reporting on what the other countries have been saying.
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@56 Jonathan_Cook
lol, I just assumed you were trying to use repetition to make the labour apologists understand!
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What everyone has to understand about Brown is that he wants to win the next General Election. Do people really think he would be so irresponsible with the public finances, if he had won the phantom election of autumn 2007? Of course not!
In short, Brown does not give a fig about the UK economy in two years time - he only cares about the short term and his election prospects. That is why he is saddling the future with such calamitous and reckless policies now.
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post81
Funny i was censored for daring to suggest
BROWN looked in the mirror.
Good on the TELEGRAPH/Seltzer.
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"10. At 11:29am on 11 Dec 2008, chrisleopard wrote:
Brown is indeed taking a big risk, but the polls have consistently suggested that the public trusts him over Cameron. That has to count for something."
---------------------------------------------
Where are they taking these polls? Inside a labour club during happy hour?
I live in a formerly industrial northern town. Pure working class labour territory, in fact voted most working class town in the UK recently. Even here Brown is hated.
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Finish my soup now.
Another news item. Nick another of your colleagues is reporting on the delay to the two aircraft carriers. I thought one of "SuperGordon's" policies was to bring forward public spending (its a another question where the money will come for but I leave that to those cleverer than I). To bring it forward maybe save jobs at the yards or at least secure them and in the Royal Navy.
Is "Super Gordon" speaking with forked tongue (sorry a US expression and as he says its all their problem)
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Sarkozy is playing a clever game: Brown has the central bank within the country, Sarkozy has not. If Sarkozy manages to tempt the Germans into trying to spend their way out of recession, the Germans will also have an interest to let inflation move up because higher inflation reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio.
The risk and harmful effects of higher inflation are substantial: in 1956, the UK's debt-toGDP ratio hit 146%. A basket of goods priced 10 pounds in 1956 costs 180 pounds and 49 pence now. Comparing this inflation with Switzerland, where debt has been relatively modest into the 1990s, demonstrates why the Germans prefer to keep the lid on government spending. The Swiss are paying 42 francs and 41 centimes now for a goods basket that set them back 10 francs in 1956.
And sterling? Well sterling converts into 1.77 francs today compared with 12.2 francs in 1956.
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Dear Nick,
I am off to visit my grandchildren this weekend and look forward to reading them stories about how they will have to work until 70 to pay off all this debt.
Any news about my question yesterday about sterling's near parity with the Euro.
Is it still buried too deep on the BBC?
Come to think of it, Robert Peston stopped treading on your territory, so why not return the favour and ask your sources?
Xxxx
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Just look at the currency markets, rather under reported these days, as they tell you how "good" Gordon's plan is. The £ heading for parity with the euro, unless some of the even more heavily indebted European states like Greece, Italy and Portugal implode. Seems the markets rather agree with Steinbruck's restrained analysis.
Perhaps Gordon should read Galbraith's book on the 1929 crash and the role of the easy credit available in 1928 and 1929 in the maelstrom. Gordon should realise that when you have a lot of debt to start with adding more to it really doesn't help, other than to defer for a very short period, the inevitable reckoning. So much for Prudence. Hey ho.
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Is anybody else seriously considering emigration? This country is a mess culturally, politically and now economically. I've nearly had enough and think it's time to get out!
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I don't essentialy think that this argument boils down to "Labour is wrong/Tories are right" in any particular sense, there are two arguments to look at.
Both parties have differing points of view over what should be done to help the economy. I personally am not enamoured to any political party in any way; but I do believe that we should not throw money into a seeminlgy bottomless pit without counting what the future cost is. I do think that Labour has got it wrong, I also think that the Tories need to do a little more than just point out that Labour may be going in the wrong direction (although this is part of the remit of being the opposition!)
I don't think it is at all sensible to try and borrow vast amounts of money when our economy isn't in a strong enough position to start with. I firmly believe that there is enough money that can be saved inside the public purse already - it just needs to be allocated in better ways. We don't need to borrow more; we need to look at what we already have and then get rid of the waste (of which there is plenty) and cut down on expenditure that is not actualy needed.
I realise that all governments will singularly fail to do this, but I think it is possible and achievable if we put our minds to it. Pointless funding of quangos and or non-essential services needs to be reduced. This can be restored when times are better, but for now it needs to go. We as a nation have far more important issues that need attention now. Perhaps an independant body needs to be set up to look at public funding? Someone who can steer funds to where they need to be and check that they are getting there - all ministries seem to be intrinsically flawed at doing this! I think this is probably because ministers and politicians are not professionals in their fields, they merely hold a short tenure.
We need to invest in our future growth, we need to recapitialise our dwindling engineering and manufacturing sectors - these will be essential to the nations recovery. I think we should also invest in our R&D sector - as the UK we have some of the finest engineering minds in Europe, we also have some of the best inventors and innovators, these will be of great help on the road to recovery. Whilst financial services will always play a role I think that the glory days are over for these guys - if not over then certainly they will not be generating the same revenue and tax streams as before
I believe we need to strive together towards being more self reliant for our goods and services. Globalisation has its place and we have our place within it, yet we must not let ourselves become incumbent on other countries for all of our needs. Wealth creation is what is required and this must stem from production of goods or services and not from high risk financial gambling (as we have seen)
Anyway - this is just my two-pennies (although i'd rather have two euro-cents at todays exchange rate! :-)
BTW - first post so be easy chaps......
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Brown's mantra "we have a plan unlike the tories"All because he is angry that the Tories dont agree with his foolish /ill conceived /masive debt for future generations plans.
The Germans have had enough listening to Brown saying that he is saving the world and its economic problems.
We are doomed financially because of Brown's eleven years of wasting taxpayers monies .When that ran out is counting on taking more and more of taxpayers monies for decades to come.
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Can you all stop quoting from The Economist and other US publications. "SuperGordon" says its all due to the Americans fault that we are in this mess so should we even import such publication. Plus of course such imports will cost more as the Pound is so low. Or should you spend more "SuperGordon" says you should.
No one is reading this are they
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Interesting article in the Telegraph today also about Brown not blaming the US but should start looking at the man in the mirror - there's a song there somewhere - by Irwin Stelzer
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3703785/Gordon-Brown-must-blame-himself-not-the-USA.html
How dare these people start talking against our great leader! Send in the anti-terror police!
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I am a German watching the comments by Peer Steinbrueck in disbelief. How can a minister of this German government seriously criticise the British Government when he and his fellow government members should really reflect on their own failings.
In my view the British government has put forward more convincing measures and has acted more decisively than the German government.
Angela Merkel's government has to answer for effective decreases in net salaries and growing national insurance burdens. But now she is still "thinking" about the crisis instead of acting.
Its the old story of allowing politicians to manage a challenge when its really experts that are needed. Based on my chances to follow British politics while living in the UK, I would certainly credit Gordon Brown with more expertise in economics than the current German government.
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It would appear that Germany does not want to be part of a world saved by Gordon Brown.
Who can blame them?
The only thing Gordon Brown wants to save is his own job and is prepared to sacrifice a generation of his fellow countrymen to do it.
Who does that sound like?
We should listen to the Germans as they have had direct experience of that sort of meglamania.
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#91 - Euro is 1.13 vs the pound. Franc/euro was 6.55957 from memory so it is around 7.46 francs to the pound!
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SuperGordo, or the Saviour of the World: An Ode
=============================
“The first point of recapitalisation was to save banks that would otherwise have collapsed. We not only saved the world..” [Laughter . ]
- Mr J. G. Brown, during Prime Minister’s Questions
Were we standing on the brink,
Gordon Brown,
Whereas now we’re safe in the pink,
Are we, Brown?
Were we crashing, diving, falling,
At the news from New York City?
Groaning "Worldwide growth is stalling"
Crying "Save us, please have pity!”
When the Hang Seng took a nosedive,
And the Dow Jones tumbled down,
Was it you who kept us all alive?
Was it, Brown?
The rot started in the States,
You say, Brown,
Did you cut their interest rates,
Did you, Brown?
As investment banks were failing
And as repossessions rose,
Did you hear the people wailing
As you picked your bogeyed nose?
Did you jump into a phone box
And don your super hero’s gown
With your trousers tucked into your socks
Really, Brown?
Did you fly into the air,
Gordon Brown?
O’er the wasted lands laid bare,
Brown, O Brown!
Where the Main Street banks were busted
And their pensions had gone west
Did they turn to one they trusted
Did they think that you knew best?
Men don't think it half so hard when
The pound falls ever further down,
Since the markets are still open
Saved by Brown.
It would greatly, I must own,
Soothe me, Brown!
If you left this theme alone,
Mighty Brown!
As we face a bleak tomorrow
With a mountain range of debt;
You seem not to share our sorrow
But, grinning, do not get it yet.
You’re the source of half the trouble
Not our saviour, just a clown.
As we watch our problems double
Chuck it, Brown!
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No 84
Will they require a warrant and if they do will anyone ask to see it before allowing a search. Any German Lawyers out there?
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Having spent the last ten years telling the europeans (indeed the world) how to run their ecomonic affairs how ironic that Brown should now be hoisted by his own prudent petard. Browns response to the recession was (i) too little (ii) too late; (iii) has failed to prompt bank lending and (iv) was hamstrung by his own policy failures.
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One potential ray of light is that given we have as a country a worse credit rating than McDonalds, perhaps nobody will buy any of the bonds and that will stop cack-handed Gordon's plans in their tracks, thus saving our future generations from the austerity that Superman witters on about.
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The polls suggesting the public trust Brown more than Cameron in this mess is probably due to the public realising their culpability in borrowing and spending what they couldn't afford and hoping that Brown, who's even more culpable, will magically fix it because he's as mired in it as they are.
They fear Cameron can rightly criticise Brown's actions, and by connection, the public's, and dish out some bitter but inevitable medicine for them to swallow.
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Crash Brown's own education should have shown him that when you point a finger at someone beware the rest of the fingers on your hand that are pointing back at you.
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@45 quiteLondonLad
Are results of action/inaction from previous recessions really what we should be basing current policy on? There has never been anything like the sort of potential meltdown the worlds economy could be facing.
Accepting that doing nothing has not helped in the past, how does that lead to the idea that doing something catastropically stupid now is better than doing nothing? At least doing nothing doesn't do any more damage, unlike every half-baked knee jerk reaction originating from no 10.
Personally I would suggest that Steinbruck knows alot more than average Joe, as last I heard 40% of Joe still thought that Crash was doing a fantastic job on the economy!!
On the plus side at least 60% realise that our economy is being obliterated by boundless stupidity and arrogance....
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I am surprised that more of your correspondents don't mention the influence of our 'Mandy' on the impression given that GB saved the world. I do think the spin is very transparent and wonder why more journalists don't nail it . In a quite amazing piece in The Guardian the bold Mandelson referred to Gordon Brown as being like 'Moses'You couldn't make this stuff up.
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I don't think we should take Steinbruck's comments too lightly or too literally. Reaction to last weekend's summit on German TV - Headlines: Merkel wasn't invited to Brown-Sarkosi huddle!
This was part of the growing move to undermine Merkel and question her competence. There are several kingmakers and would-be Chancellors waiting in the wings. Beck, for example, took his ball home and refused to play in the coalition any more. Now he's building his local support like bedrock ready for his 2009 challenge. Also watch Stoiber within the CDU camp.
As to the Germans having no problem ... that's nearly all hype and spin. Despite their scepticism, ordinary folk here are not hearing any other message than "We are OK - it's Bush's fault in America and Brown's knee-jerk reaction in Europe." Meanwhile Mercedes and BMW are asking for and will receive a massive bail-out to protect what few jobs remain in the German economy where unemployment is in free-fall. Middle class professionals are jumping ship in boat loads to Switzerland, Luxembourg, the USA, the Arab States - even the UK for higher wages and secure jobsl Hospitals are being closed in areas where demand from the elderly is rapidly rising. Public services can't staff their facilities because of financial cuts and not poor, but pathetic, management. Staff-student, teacher-pupil, nurse-patient ratios are scandalous, even criminal, but when the edge of the carpet is lifted it is quickly hidden or glossed over, or blamed on local politics - the centre is never to blame. Here it isn't the borrower who has their head in the sand - it's central government. While every one esle in the world knew about Hypo Real Estate, Merkel gave the impression that she only knew that there was a problem a day or two before! If people really knew the state of Deutsche Bank, Sparkasse, and the risk to their savings, then comparisons with the 1920s and the 1930s wouldn't be out of order. There is lots of local talk here about how Hitler saved the economy by his programme of motorway building and public works!! The most successful economic programme of the 20th century!!
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I think that Steinbruck has a point on VAT. It seemed an odd decision to me, and there should surely have been better ways of spending £12bn while still stimulating the economy. I guess the attraction was that putting VAT back up again wouldn't be as apinful as reversing a reduction in (for eg) NICs.
I also agree with those who are surprised at the possibility of saving money by postponing the new carriers. That sort of spending would have just the effect that the government thinks we need at the moment, surely.
However, I am amused by the eagerness with which the 'usual suspects' have latched on to the criticism of the Brown policy, while ignoring the many more voices that are in support. Nevertheless, as I have argued before, Brown is necessarily on a loser on this. Like the effectiveness of a medical intervention, you can never know what would have happened had no action been taken, or some different remedy been prescribed. All Cameron has to do is be different, and since there is certain to be a painful period to be got through he is going to be able to claim that things would have been less painful with his prescription. There will be no way to prove him wrong on that because it will never be put to the test, but the pain of the Brown prescription will be real. And accordingly it doesn't matter what Cameron actually suggests, so long as it differs from government policy.
I am surprised that Steinbruck makes such a point of the UK's level of borrowing, though. Perhaps it's that Germany can't afford to borrow more - after all, according to Eurostat (not the UK government) German public debt rose from 58% of GDP in 1997 to 65% in 2007. Over the same period, the UK's debt fell from 50% to 44%.
(And these figures include PFI, btw).
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91. econovice
Please stop going on about Switzerland.
It is a country with a very low population, and massive capital inflows from its notorious, not quite so open, banking industry- which has also been mullered by recent events, and is now being propped up big time.
If the Swiss had to support 65 million people, without the benefit of all that 'funny' money, their currency would be
either the Euro or like ours, weak in a time of global crisis.
After what has happened over the past few years, in which Brown etc have been accused of trying to make the UK like Switzerland, a big offshore tax haven for eg Icelandic and Russian oligarchs, I would have thought it was unlikely that we would openly pursue a policy of becoming Switzerland-on-Sea, at least for a while.
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The German Finance Minister is quite right reducing VAT was a complete waste of time
and just shows how desperate things really are.
Just when unempolyment is rising the financial geniuses in Government raise the
cost of employing somone by raising NI, and then tax the people who still need to get to work by increasing fuel duty!!
I still havn't heard as to when the Fraud Squad are due to investigate the bankers who are responsible for this current shambles. They were lending money that they did not have so that they could pay themselves large bonuses
The Government should put a freeze on
all their assets and pay until we find out what has been going on!
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#39 TomPride
In 1976 we had negative growth and high inflation (stagflation) with much higher taxes and public expenditure as we do now. Spending our way out of recession wasn't an option in the late seventies.
What do we have in the late naughties? The serious threats of deflation and negative growth with potentally mass unemployment. We also have a deep banking crisis where businesses and individuals are starved of credit. How is this different from the Depression? Wasn't a cause of this by banks lending too much to people to speculate on the stock exchange, and when the stocks went down these people couldn't pay the banks back?
History tells us that 'balancing the books at all costs' in a time like this will lead to deflation and mass unemployment (read your history of the Great Depression). If Steinbruck wants to repeat the same mistake his predecessor did in the 1930s then that's Germany's problem.
It is sad that Steinbruck and posters on this blog have failed to learn from the past and dismiss Keynesianism with such petulant arrogance.
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I'm no expert on the current financial situation but is the problem in the UK that we are just borrowing this money to inject back into our economy whereas other countries are putting in reserves of cash they have saved??
I seem to remember a comment recently where it was said that a fiscul stimulus is a good idea, but only if it can come from money in the pot. Sounds like the Germans have just come out and said what a lot of people have been suspecting.
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Balls blames this on internal German politics.
Here's what Angela Merkel had to say prior to Steinbruck's comments:
"Staring down critics among her own ranks, Mrs Merkel told her party's annual conference in Stuttgart the world needed a long-term vision – including greater global economic regulation – rather than quick fixes that would burden taxpayers.
"A bidding war ... a senseless race for billions – we won't take part in that," she said."
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So why does most of the electorate favour Brown/Darling in this crisis? Is it 1) fear of the unknown i.e. the Tories or 2) really because they see merit in the Brown/Darling policies or 3) because most of them are on Labour's benefit and public sector payroll and don't want to face a cuts oriented policy 4) are so in debt themselves they prefer seeing a government spend recklessly like them or 5) Brown/Darling/New Labour PR/media ownership has now become so overwhelming no other opinions have a chance or 6) something else? Opinions please?
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Mrs Thatcher took GB away from a manufacturing economy to a service economy when she took power in the 80s. Germany lumbered on with its manufacturing base and a manufacturing economy. Team Brown & Darling have had to bail out the fat cats running this service economy -- some of whom got greedy and speculated on oil and other short term deals and sent a precariously / finely balanced global lending market into complete freefall. And most of the money markets start and end at GB. Brown et al have to protect their interests otherwise what else will they have left except for holding on to other counrties' petroleum drilling rights and the middle east petrodollars. London somehow has to hold on as the world's premier financial capital with Government and political support, otherwise financial capital will get reinvested in India and China [Hong Kong]. as it is China and Japan own most of America's debts.
Mr David Cameron and team before latching on to other people's quotes should get a grip on GB's eocnomic path which traces back to Mrs Thatcher and her then erstwhile economic advisor and a bumbling Tory ex chancellor who precipitated a similar economic crisis with his trials and errors and who finally [heroically] resigned claiming mother hen had clamped his balls iron-tight [leaving him completely impotent to try out further trials and errors and precipate another crisis - as if people commiting suicide in the city was not enough].
A learning point from all this is that the housing bubble has finally burst, as in Japan a decade ago which almost derailed the japanese banks wich were bailed out by the japanese Government [like Gordon Brown]. The Government collectively with the opposition or otherwise has to come to a decision and hammer down house prices to realistic levels commensurate with current wages of lower to middle income earners. While doing doing this, the Government has to seriously legislate for developers [and offer serious incentves to the building industry] to identify pockets of high densities [or predicted trends in the next ten to twenty years] of population, and start converting blocks of single houses to economically affordable flats albeit with matching civic amenities.
This is the best time to sort out food inflation -- side with the French -- get the farming incentives in place -- increase local food production, what with drastically changing climates -- be more ambitious in planting and harvesting water intensive tropical crops and yes -- look actively at GM crops and see how best these can be promoted -- the third world is using GM crops -- why not GB.
YES GB [GORDON BROWN ER GREAT BRITAIN] HAS SAVED THE WORLD ... BANKS
NOW IT UP TO DC AND THE CONSERVATIVES TO REBUILD ITS DAD'S ARMY AND NOT DO A ANGELA MERKEL VOLTE FACE.
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So, the BBC has noticed that Germany is "out of step" (according to the government) with the global consensus (defined by the government) on trying to spend yourself out of trouble after spending more than you earned. Maybe the BBC can now also bring themselves to ask Brown the following questions:
-If Britain is best-placed to face the downturn, why is it that sterling has been falling aganist both the dollar and the euro?
-If it all started in the US, why has the pound fallen 25% against the dollar?
-How did UK banks end up with the weakest balance sheets in Europe at the end of 2006?
-Why did UK banks sell mortgages to over 100% of real estate value?
-Why did Brown run a budget deficit when the economy was growing above trend?
-Why was the cost of housing not reflected in the new inflation index?
-Does it make sense to make banks lend out more money now that unemployment is rising and already in 2007 companies accounting for 25% of borrowing by non-financial companies could not service their debt by operating profits?
-Why hasn't Brown endeavoured to improve insight in the cost of public sector pensions (some actuaries estimate the liability anywhere bewteen 600 billion and a trillion)?
-Is it reasonable that 27% of council tax is being spent on local council pensions?
-Has the change in dividend tax treatment for company pension funds contributed to corporate pension fund deficits and subsequently a dearth of business investment in the UK?
-Did the IMF warn about the UK's borrowing binge and if so what was the government's response?
-If the IMF warned about the UK's borrowing binge, why do we need a new early warning system (the IMF has been warnig the UK since the start of the century)?
-Do you think that means-tested benefits harm productivity at all?
-Why were so many pounds of means-tested tax credits paid out wrongly?
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Steinbruck is right and our Treasury Select Committee should, and won't, agree.
The big lesson of Japanese stagflation for a decade was you have to be honest and CREDIBLE with the consumers for there to be a genuine recovery. The tax payers who will have to foot the VAT cut bill and will probably see zilch in terms of a "bounce" - but it could be argued there will be less "splat" in Wall St Crash terminology.
Brown really does see himself as the saviour of the world and I see that delusion lasting till about March.
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Thank God for Peer Steinbruck and the Germans, he is exactly right. I suspect more of the europeans would like to tell Brown to take a run and jump as well but are too politically nice to say so. The poles and Danes definitely agree with the Germans and cameron.
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Nick
I find it hard to believe that the reason the German Finance minister said this is due to German internal politics. Maybe ( like me ) he just gets fed up with Gordon saying that he is saving the world singlehandly when he knows that Brown was to a large part responsible for it
There is no way the Brown economic rescue can succeed. We have got ourselves into a big whole as individuals, companies and goverment by borrowing more than we should. Gordon's solution is to borrow more and dig the hole a load deeper. Despite the millions put into the banks they have not started lending - the early signs are not encouraging
I truly hope that things will improve but suspect this will only be when Gordon is consigned to the dustbin of history. What we need now is the Conservatives to stand up and present an alternative way forward
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Once again Brown or his ministers shrug off any criticism from wherever it comes from. Now Brown and Darling have shrugged off criticism from Germany's finance minister of UK economic policies, saying the remarks were influenced by internal politics. This Labour lot begin to sound like Zanu PF who say that any criticism is generated by imperialists / capitalists and everything is OK. Labour is wrecking everything.
I really worry about polls in the UK supporting Brown / Darling economic competency. That opinion can only come from 1) the lack of appreciation of economics amongst much of the public - not helped by the terrible education system wrecked by Labour, 2) the vested interests of civil service with useless jobs, extortionate pay grades, bonuses for nothing and final salary pensions and 3) the benefits culture built by Labour. The country I used to know is becoming a banana republic with no bananas.
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"Is anybody else seriously considering emigration? This country is a mess culturally, politically and now economically. I've nearly had enough and think it's time to get out!"
If we borrow this £500bn, I'm not sticking around to contribute towards paying for it that's sure.
I will go to a country where my hard work is rewarded, rather than money being stolen from me to pay for Labour's voting base to sit on their backsides all day watching TV.
It's sad that it's come to this, but everyone I speak to, from all generations, is in agreement that this country is past the point of no return.
It's a shame that toadies like Robinson can't bring themselves to actually try and question those in power, rather than hanging around behind them trying to insert their noses. It's scandalous.
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I notice that Brown's mini -me, the corpulent, getting larger by trhe day Ed Balls has been wheeled out to refute the German statement.
that'll put it up 'em!
they must be laughing into their sauerkraut being lectured on the economy by a near bankrupt country that does not manufacture anything
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Nick
Aside from the "who said what" stuff the fundamental problem with Mr Brown is that he has played the old Tory euro sceptic card and been proved wrong.
As Chancellor he failed to move the economy away from over-dependence on Financial services and failed to join the Euro as a founder member.
We have now lost a QUARTER of our national wealth by not joining the Euro. Perhaps all the EURO haters in the press and elsewhere will admit they were wrong.
Finally there is always McDonalds near the Arc de Triomphe for British visitors to France..............
I wish the British Euro-sceptic Press would smell Le Cafe.
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But Gordon is leading the world!
well he was til the world pointed out we were actually the worst off in the developed world
...honesty sounds like a lovely policy, a bit of german straightforwardness wouldn't go a miss over here
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# 99:
You don't sound like a German to me. If you are then I apologise but you appear to have been taken in by Gordon Brown hook line and sinker.
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Oh look, pound in another record Euro low. Looks like the rest of the world are fully aware that Crash's fiscal splurge/stimulous is monumentally stupid.
Shouldn't Nick be starting another blog to spin about how wrong the rest of the world are for not believing in their saviour?
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#101
Please learn to read. He said the Swiss franc , which is currently trading at 1.77 francs to the pound.
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If Gordon Brown`s plan to get us out of this mess was viable, we would have seen some glimmer of hope by now.
There is none whatsoever. The pound continues to drop like a stone and more and more institutions such as Woolworths will be going to the wall. There is just a total lack of confidence in the Uk economy. Unless the BBC is not reporting it, this dire economic situation does not appear to be happening to the same degree in other parts of Europe.
Is the German Minister the first of many who dare raise his voice against Gordon Brown? How many more are thinking the same? Time will tell; but I bet there are many.
We now have clear water between the two camps who have totally different ideas on how to deal with this recession.
Brown`s idea - short term. Throw lots of cash at it now; but don`t worry about the long term consequences. Brown has given no hint as to what he is going to do long term.
Cameron`s and now the German`s - long term policy. Don`t go throwing good money after bad or else you will be lumbered with increasing debt for years to come, the interest on which will be crippling.
Brown`s camp is going around stamping its feet like children because someone dare tell them they are wrong. Lets see who else in the next few days comes out of the wood work and faces up to Brown and Mandleson. The latter seems to have gone very quite lately - what`s he up to?
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68. At 12:19pm on 11 Dec 2008, canttakeanymore wrote:
Good post Nick. Am I the only one to notice an absence of Labour supporters attempting to disprove?
No worry. Like all the Labour MPs who appear on TV and insted of answering questions they repeat what has been pushed into their heads, the Zanu Labour posters are still undergoing the briefing session by our friend CEH who is currently still engaged in frantic research on "why Labour is good for us".
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132 posts and no sign of C.E.H. yet?
I am sure he is Robin in disguise and at this very moment is flying with Flash Gordon trying to save some other poor economy around the world.
If they only would get some of our gold back for every Country they save!
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Post 95 mightychewster - welcome to the debate.
Sadly most posts on here are about the writer sounding off rather than sounding out I am possibly no exception though I do try to be different..
Like all of today’s society we are echoed in the song [its all about me].
A little like parliamentarians really who just make a few sound bites and get out of the chamber
The idea of listening to or debating and rationalising argument into a solution does not enter into it.
Some good points by the way echoed in my post at 65 and else where [see what I mean]
By the way if as a [newy] you don’t know it if you click on the blogers name at the top of each post you get all that persons recent posts
Good luck
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"55. At 12:03pm on 11 Dec 2008, canihavenothing wrote:
"COMETH THE HOUR COMETH THE MAN" (OR WOMEN AGAIN)
Surely someone can announce via the media (Littlejohn most likely) of a protest rally outside Parliament to DEMAND this government of fools resign and new elections are held. If the Greeks can do it why not us?
THIS WILL NEVER GET POSTED AS THE ONLY JOURNALIST WITH THE () () TO TELL IT LIKE IT IS HAS BEEN NAMED.
End of wish."
-----------------------------------------
With regards to the Greek protests, isn't it interesting that the media are still spinning those to be about the shooting of a child? Those protests would not have spread right across Europe if that was all it was about. No.
Notice who has been attacked by so-called "anarchists"? The Banks and some corporate names of the international elite corporatocracy.
The Greek protests are against the Government for putting the interests of the global elite bankers above those of the people and expecting the people not only to accept it, but pay for it too.
The real cause of this international crisis IS the banking elite. The same banking families that are behind the world wars and the greater of the major conflicts. The same families that own all the world's "money" as it is created out of thin air by the central banks that are owned by these families and THEN lent into circulation at interest. AND when they want a major change, (say to a single global currency to stave off a deep global depression), then they issue orders to their central banks to create a huge debt bubble, then they create a credit freeze (stop lending) to remove a huge amount of money from the global economy to frighten people en-masse.
When people are scared, they act irrationally and will support measures that are counter productive to their welfare and needs in order to "feel a little more secure"
People will gladly hand over their freedom and sovereignty to a global fascist elite for a promise that it will be necessary for their survival.
This is becoming a unified end-game in a global Hegelian dialectic play on the entire population of the earth. problem, reaction, solution on a global scale, organised by the Bank of International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. They co-ordinate all the other central banks.
Which countries do NOT have a central bank? To my knowledge only Iran and North Korea. Even Iraq has one, but only after Saddam was deposed.
The central banks create money out of thin air. They lend that money into circulation through many different means, ALL at cost. The cost of this money is NEVER lent into circulation at the same time. This means that in order for the debt, plus the interest owed on debt, to be repaid, MORE debt has to be created. Again at interest.
When banks stop issuing loans, then the interest owed on previous loans cannot be serviced as there is NOT enough money in circulation. People WILL lose out and that is not a flaw in the system, it is intentional and by design. How else can the global banking families control entire nations? they have ownership and therefore total control of that nation's money. When co-ordinated by the central banker's central bank, then that gives these same banking families the power to control the world's money flows and through that the governments of the world.
The banks try to remain aloof and independent of what is going on, and are happy for the grubby politicians to fight it out for glory and blame. The banks are happy for the people to aim their fury at a global depression at the politicians (who are to blame, as they are willingly played and controlled by the bankers) and spare the bankers.
Well the truth is leaking out into universal consciousness. No thanks to mainstream media (also controlled by the same elites as the governments) but thanks to the free democratisation from the internet, the truth of what money is, is now becoming understood and people are finally rebelling, as foretold by people like:
Henry Ford, “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our Banking and Monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a Revolution before tomorrow morning.”
Woodrow Wilson: “I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”
A.K. Chesterton: “I claim the existence of a conspiracy for the destruction of the Western World as the prelude for shepherding mankind into a sheep's pen run as a prelude to One World tyranny.”
John Hylan, N.Y. Mayor: “The real menace of our Republic is the invisible government which like a giant octopus sprawls its slimy legs over our cities, states and nation. At the head is a small group of banking houses... This little coterie...run our government for their own selfish ends. It operates under cover of a self-created screen...seizes...our executive officers...legislative bodies...schools...courts...newspapers and every agency created for the public protection.”
And there are many many many more examples of heads of Governments and industry who have warned in private, amongst their elite peer-groups of this global elite and their plans for a "new world order" that in reality is a global fascist prison.
Gordon Brown is rushing as fast as he can towards this goal. He is not, nor ever has been, on the side of the people. He wants to secure his place at the top table of the Lucifarians who are running the global money scam.
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Nick -- perhaps Robert P, yourself and readers of this blog should refer to this excellent commentary in the Daily Telegraph today.
High time the British people understood the reality of what Gordon Brown and his team are doing to this country and its economy.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/philip_johnston/blog/2008/12/11/german_finance_minister_spoils_gordon_browns_bid_to_save_the_world
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Whinge whinge whinge. Nobody on here seems to want to take any personal responsibility for getting into debt. That is what the problem is. If New Labour had tried to bring in legislation to curb borrowing the same people who are whingeing here today would have accused them of creating a 'nanny state'.
What has to change is our collective attitude to debt, borrowing and saving. That is what will pull us out of the mire. All the government can do is to create the right conditions to enable that to happen.
I certainly feel for those, like myself, who have saved money over the years and kept themselves relatively free of debt.
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97. dickie56
the Economist is a long running *British* publication, akin to the spectator or new statesman
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It took the sound money germans to deflate Brown's money printing fest and bombastic arrogance.
Why didnt the BBC's dumb-down economic/polital team didnt make much effort earlier?
Why dont the BBC ask Brown why he thinks the £ is falling - what are the markets missing about his economic masterpiece?
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I was reading the FT and I came across this comment from Philip Stevens
As for Mr Steinbrück, he is partly right and mostly wrong. Some of his criticism is, to borrow his description of Mr Brown, simply crass. It is perfectly true that Britain’s fiscal position is perilously weak. But that reflects previous profligacy. The temporary VAT cut is scarcely here nor there in the overall calculation. More important, if every economy followed his advice and opted for fiscal retrenchment, then recession in Europe would quickly turn to slump. For all its devotion to economic rectitude, Germany would suffer grievously along with everyone else,
In truth, Mr Steinbrück sounds rather like those politicians in the early 1930s who insisted that the only way to avoid the great depression was to balance national budgets. We know what followed from that, not least in Germany.
Excellent stuff!
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A quote from another poster on the Superman topic:
Reuters:
"Altogether, these readings made a strong case for the United Kingdom ultimately suffering the worst recession in the developed world," Commerzbank analysts said in a research note.
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So the Germans are simply saying what everyone knows and which our politicians will never admit
I particularly like
"We should be honest with our citizens". part of it, given that browns government have long ago lost the ability to tell the truth form convenient lies
The fact is wheve binged upon borrowing and now were in for a severe hangover
I think Brown knows that cutting back will lead to unpalatable cuts and involve admitting that much spending has been wasted and unecessary that many of the public sector jobs r useless that ID cards are a waste that the PFI schemes are dodgy and many decisions were just incompetent.
He also knows that raising taxes will be unpopular as they will be raised precisely to keep all the 5 a day/antiobesity/anit smoking/ sustainable development coordinators in work at the expense of the productive economy,
Browns only answer is a dose of more borrowing, Like an alcoholic wanting some hair of the dog 2 postpone the above till after the next election
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Stevie T28
You asked if anyone is considering emigration.
Yes - we're hoping to leave next April.
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Until recently I thought Brown was incompetent and stupid.
I know realise that he is an evil genius.
To deliberately destroy the Great British economy (for the purpose of breaking us up into helpless EU regions entirely dependent on the EU for our survival (as a stepping stone towards a single fascist global government)) and to gain credit with the electorate for it, shows he is a genius.
It seems that the people are thanking Brown and gratefully accepting their enslavement into servitude under a global police state?
The people in Thailand and Greece have far more moral rectitude than the British who now cower pitifully in abject surrender to an EU oligarchy.
The British people cannot be ignorant of the globalist plans, could they? All it takes is eyes to see.
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The Government know that they bear a heavy responsibility for this economic crisis, and it is just typical political 'damage limitation' to blame the Americans for it.
You might have thought that the Labour, Tory and Lib-Dems politicians would, in these incredibly difficult circumstances, try to work together to produce a better outcome for the people - but no such luck.
They are already posturing for a General Election within the next 18 months instead.
I do not know what is the matter with these politicians but I do know one thing - they sure as hell do not represent us - the English people.
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One little point Nick, the great inflation in Germany was in the twenties, not the thirties.
They have been in favour of "sound money" ever since. Strange really, because even more misery was caused by the "sound money" overreaction to the inflation in the late twenties.
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Some people are forgetting that there are effectively two 'borrowing' arguments. One is the massive borrowing of billions of taxpayers' money to support the banks, and try to help them cope with the mountains of debt, secured against falling asset values, giving them some cash flow to ba able to deal with this. This policy is correct and has backing from every developed nation.
The other borrowing, is Brown's 'fiscal stimulus' plan, which is not necessarily completely wrong, but is clearly poorly timed. People need to come to terms with the recession, tighten their belts first and THEN it might be worth introducing a fiscal stimulus to to get them spending. To do it now is like convincing people to stick their heads in the sand and carry on as though there were no recession (which Brown himself almost appears to be doing). The underlying factors in this recession are WAY too big for the public to spend their way out of it, I'm afraid Gordon Brown is just going to make sure that UK plc is in recession long after other countries start to grow.
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@95 chewster
No need to go easy on your 1st post, plenty of sense in there. Now all you need to do is impart your wisom (in words of 1 syllable) to our glorious leader...
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110.
Your post is a salutory lesson for those British Tories on here who believe that because Germany makes their cars (mine too) very well, their economy is in better shape than ours in the UK.
The fact of the matter is that we western Europeans have been affected almost equally by this whole mess. Arguably, Germany will suffer more because it will find it tricky to devalue its currency, for the moment at least.
That's why Steinbruck is squealing, the UK appears to have no interest in allowing its subjects to suffer a defaltionary spiral, mass unemployment, repossessions etc (The Tories' wonderful plan). So, the UK adopts a policy which will temporarily weaken its currency, and cushion itself from the worst. This cannot help the Eurozone, already struggling to maintain competitive against the UK.
If I were Steinbruck, I'd be very worried too. German citizens may be willing for the moment to prop up the rest of the Eurozone, but it will not be long before there is pressure from within Germany to lose the Club Med countries, plus Ireland.
There's no way that Ireland etc. can compete for long with the UK with 1.13 E to the pound.
The Eurozone must and will reflate its economies on at least the same scale as the UK, or cause a nasty internal split. The current problems in Greece are only the beginning, if the Europeans, how shall I put it, do nothing...
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Random point, I know, but is it a common convention to square bracket decapitalised initial letters of quotations? Looks messy.
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@ MunichMadrid
Switzerland:
-60% of country is mountains
-land-locked
-no oil revenues
-taxes at 30% of GDP
And still Switzerland:
-makes lots of good stuff, from food to pharmaceuticals and capital goods, including trustworthy skilifts (would you trust a skilift built in Birmingham the morning following a West Ham match?)
-has houses with stone walls throughout and double glazing
-has dentists that I would visit (lived 7 years in UK but decided fairly quickly to visit my old dentist back home again (not Switzerland)
-has trains that run on time in the winter (and there tends to lie some snow during that period)
-has lower inflation, that thing that heavily indebted government love more than is good for us
MunichMadrid, you would be well-advised to buy some swiss contact lenses since you continue to get my alias wrong.
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Here is a different angle on the Germany versus Brown spat:
"It takes diplomatic bungling on a grand scale to get into such a row when you clearly did not intend to.
Mr Brown should now wake up on this issue, and realise that the EU does not want the UK to be engaged and influential to take the EU in a different direction.
They want us to go along with what Germany and France have decided. On this occasion it just happens that Germany is right, and ironically it is now Germany that is arguing for the EU to keep out of economic policy and leave it to individual member states at a time of crisis."
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#117 - hammersmithjack -- excellent post.
I would vote for (3) & (5)
But I also feel that some of the opinion polls don't truly reflect the serious concerns many have about Gordon Brown and Labour.
This country has been heading for a recession for at least 2 years but the stats have been constantly manipulated by GB and crew.
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@ 95
I generally agree with you, but not in reference to, "Anyway - this is just my two-pennies (although i'd rather have two euro-cents at todays exchange rate! :-)
BTW - first post so be easy chaps......"
I would still rather have two pennies at today's exchange rate, for they are still worth more, well it is so far today...
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@117 hammersmithjack
No brainer this one. It's 1,3,4 & 5. I would also add a little bit of 6 - too stupid to think for themselves.
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@ 99, re: "I am a German watching the comments by Peer Steinbrueck in disbelief. How can a minister of this German government seriously criticise the British Government when he and his fellow government members should really reflect on their own failings.
In my view the British government has put forward more convincing measures and has acted more decisively than the German government."
------------------------------------
So you get your news from the BBC then?
In the real world, we hate Brown and you are welcome to him!
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Brown has completely lost it
They talk of a stimulus by bringing spending forwards, then push back spending on that is already planned/scheduled !!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7776695.stm
What is even more bizzare is that Brown/Darling have said that they beleive that the recession will be over next year - so this it will all be over before this change makes any difference!
Surely they aren't telling porkies about when the think the recession will end are they?
FWIW: I applaud them coming to their senses (slightly) by taking on the tory principal of cutting state expenditure - but as ever they are screwing it up by cutting the wrong things...
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#109 bright-eyedwendym
- - Mandelson referred to Gordon Brown as being like 'Moses' You couldn't make this stuff up.
Come on bright eyed, be fair. It's a perfectly valid comparison -
old testament, not new;
talks to God on a regular basis;
instructs others to make sacrifices;
likes handing out commandments telling everybody how to lead their lives.
Mandy's done his homework on this one, don't you think ?
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Oops, I just made a blooper, implying West Ham come from Brimingham. It's Aston Villa obviously. Well, at least it shows I'm not from the UK and not a party hack when I add my 2 pence to this blog.
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How long can politicians and journalists peddle this **** (for it is such) before the population revolt and take matters into their own hands one wonders....?
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There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Nick dare you say?
have you ever wondered who pays your wages?
Do you actaully believe that this will be only from one none British politican? this is just the start!
Its been sat right under our nose from since that bogey eating cretin forced his way into power!
What exactly does the BBC stand for anymore?
Us or the politcians?
Glad you have drawn a line here because you would have got some very, very angry people, wanting answers.
Save your skin now before we drag FLASH out of number 10 and feather and tar him in public view!
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Nick,
After listening to the 2pm news, 2 points for you to ask your souces next time at the Dog 'n Duck.
- The Irish have now been strong armed into a SECOND vote for Lisdon after voting NO. Where does GB stand on this?
- The Britishs carriers, now 2 years later than planned, will be the first ones ever to be ready and placed into mothballs because they have no aircraft. How does this effect GB's global saving plan?
Xxxx
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I wonder if Peer Steinbruck agrees with me that this video, within just 30 seconds, provides an excellent analogy of Gordon Brown's management of our economy since 1997:
Video - do you think Herr Steinbruck would agree with me?
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124 - There will be far more emigration should those buffoons Cameron and Osborne ever get in to power....have no doubt!..
The North,The Midlands,Scotland and Wales will be vactaed - as the inhabitants will know only too well whats coming...MORE THATCHERISM,MORE DIVISION,MORE BUST,MORE POLICE POWERS,MORE MISERY!
Cameron is Godson of Thatcher -
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@117. At 1:17pm on 11 Dec 2008, hammersmithjack wrote:
"So why does most of the electorate favour Brown/Darling in this crisis? Is it 1) fear of the unknown i.e. the Tories or 2) really because they see merit in the Brown/Darling policies or 3) because most of them are on Labour's benefit and public sector payroll and don't want to face a cuts oriented policy 4) are so in debt themselves they prefer seeing a government spend recklessly like them or 5) Brown/Darling/New Labour PR/media ownership has now become so overwhelming no other opinions have a chance or 6) something else? Opinions please? "
---------------------------------------
7, They only polled people in a labour club bar during happy hour!
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@119 Econoce
Excellent summary of questions that need to be asked, perhaps you could mail them to DC so he has a better idea of how to call Crash to account?
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118 snazblog
for once on this blog, a mature and insightful account of how we got here.
Had every blogger's pal Gordy allowed the UK banks to fold, we could have kissed goodbye to those massive City revenues for a very long time.
Humans are resilient, and the world's economies will recover in time. But when ours does, we need to be ready to operate it in a different way.
This means more taxation for the sectors of the population prone to bubble-behaviour, ie the wealthy.
It also means more investment in our own infrastructure. How about taking advantage of cheap oil and metals etc. to build our own wind farms, wave energy etc. now, not in a few years? We could even employ some of those newly-redundant ex-house construction workers.
I know it's not free-market enough for many Tories who would love to see us paying up to the French, Germans and Russians for our power supplies, but this is one borrowing-to-invest that we could all accept, even the Tebbit clones on this blog.
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Brown is so stubborn and shortsighted he cannot see the wood for the trees.
Instead of going off 'to save the world' where no one was listening he comes up with global solutions when what every other country wants to do is get its own house in order.
He wasted valuable time that should have been spent producing the right proposals for this country.
Can he really be surprised that others are coming up with better and more realistic ideas on how to run their finances.
If he won't listen to Cameron's proposals then he should listen to Angela Merkel.
She knows they have to get it right
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Somewhere up the blog, someone pointed out that opinion polls seem to suggest that Brown and co are more trusted on the economy than the Conservatives. Then someone else asked where (where, oh where) were these polls taken?
I think it is a matter of how you ask the question. A very broad view of our short term future in relation to economics is "Brown, you broke it, now you fix it". I suspect that in large measure, it is this view that the pollsters are miss-translating into "trust".
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The so called fiscal stimulus is a complete gimick. All we have is ever increasing debt to pay for the vastly bloated public sector workforce (1million extra civil servants) and current excessive government spending. If we could just cut this army of unproductive non-jobs then we would be far better off. It's now a liche but just look at the job listing in the Guardian - page after page of highly paid yet totally unproductive giovernment jobs)
Of course taking hard decisions like this in the face economic reality is not something that the Labour party has ever been good at. far easier to screw it up and then blame the tories when the inevitable cutbacks become necessary.
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Nick
Can you please comment re/open blogs on the Green affair...
Following on the seismic shift in the investigation required by the speech of Gus O'Donnell this morning.
In it he confirmed that David Davis had admitted at least half of what Galley leaked to his Party was so sensitive it could NOT be published...
This is seismic stuff...
It begs the following URGENT QUESTION..
1. Who else other than Green received information from Galley
2. Who decided this material was too sensitive to publish - was it Cameron or one of his underlings
3. On the basis it was too sensitive - therefore detrimental to state security WHY DID'NT CAMERON CALL IN THE POLICE himself?
4. Where is this material now - surely it MUST be handed to the Police and anyone other than Green in posession of it be arrested and cautioned immediately - on the basis of its sensitivity?
This has bought sharply back in to focus the GREEN AFFAIR - it is vital we as the public are told the true extent of the duplicity of the opposition in accquiring sensitive state material..
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#93
Perhaps Gordon should read Galbraith's book on the 1929 crash and the role of the easy credit available in 1928 and 1929 in the maelstrom. Gordon should realise that when you have a lot of debt to start with adding more to it really doesn't help, other than to defer for a very short period, the inevitable reckoning. So much for Prudence. Hey ho
Brown's not stupid. He knows that what he is doing is to defer for a short period - till the time of the next election atually.
There are still folk out there who buy the NuLab spin. You see it repeated on here often enough.
I do wish these NuLab apologists would google some serious commentary sites and read what independent financial experts are saying about the PBR and the true levels of borrowing we can expect. Only then will they realise what an absolute disaster awaits us if we follow Brown's strategy.
I guess that's much harder than parroting do nothing do nothing Eton Bullingdon boys etc etc.
Such a massive contribution to the debate.
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http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2025890.ece
Unusual source but Brown's comments to Alan Sugar, including:-
"Well, I am angry at the behaviour of banks because we did not know what was actually happening behind the scenes. We did not know that they were operating all these investment vehicles."
An admission that the Tripartite System established all those years ago was not fit for purpose..?
Will anyone ever push him on the point?
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117:
Good question.
If the electorate does indeed favour Brown - of which I'm not convinced - it could be a case of:
"Cling tightly to your nurse
For fear of finding something worse".......
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1° To the Germans, the idea may not just be how to deal with the British economic U turn.
The alarming issue may be British siding with France. France - no matter whether right or left - have the attitude of government directing economy. They accept liberty rather for philosophers than for manageing directors. The French have lost direct control over their national Banque de France, accepting the Dutch and German model of independence for their national banks being the model for the European Central Bank. Also, German government does not influcence business as strongly as the French government. Therefore, the French struggle for regaining control over business on a European level, more particularly over the ECB, while the Germans refuse to go along with the French.
The Bank of England being more subject to government influence than the ECB, the Germans may understand the meeting Sarkozy - Brown - Barroso as an indication of the French and UK governments aiming at centralising economy and finance under government rule. UK would not have direct impact on the ECB, of course - but what about economic and fiscal government on a European level?
EVEN IF Steinbruck and Merkel privately agreed with French and UK governments, they know that a German government trying to curb down liberty of the Central Bank would raise a storm in the press and may cause some adverse response next elections.
So, Steinbruck's remark may just be the raising a red flag and make sure, France and the UK do not expect Germany to follw the French way.
Sarkozy with his plans of economic government is a politician on the right. I learnt this one from a French in 1981, French President being left Mitterand:
Some foreign delegation on economic matters pays a visit to France.
Question: What is the rate of inflation?
Answer: Zero pct
Q: How many people are on the dole?
A: Zero pct
Q: What is the price of a standard bread?
A: 1 rouble
2° Germans honest and cautious v Labour devilish - seems to be widespread opinion.
Steinbruck is SPD - social democrate - German equivalent of Labour. So, not everybody on the left is devilish.
If, having saved the world, Gordon goes to Germany in order to establish the Society of Steinbruck Haters, he will be extremely successful. Most members will be members of SPD ( = German Labour Party ). By comparison to others of his remarks, the one on the UK economic U turn is extremely moderate.
Steinbruck is a bore by comparison to his SPD collegue of ( city and federal state of ) Berlin, Mr. Sarrazin. If it was legally possible to establish a Society of potential Sarrazin Killers, new members would stampede in to enroll - politicians and nonpoliticians alike. But Sarrazin may be the most successful among all Minister of Finance of German federal states.
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#97
"Can you all stop quoting from The Economist and other US publications. "SuperGordon" says its all due to the Americans fault that we are in this mess so should we even import such publication"
What a tool. Why don't you read about the history of The Economist and then come back and apologise for posting tripe on this blog?
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@ 126: "We have now lost a QUARTER of our national wealth by not joining the Euro. Perhaps all the EURO haters in the press and elsewhere will admit they were wrong."
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It is not being outside of the Euro that was wrong, it was [and is] the policies that this deranged anti-British labour party followed at the behest of their puppet masters that has been wrong.
They ONLY salvation for the UK to remain a strong and independent nation would be for us to withdraw from the EU completely.
Staying in will only see our nation destroyed and split up and turned into separate EU regions ruled from the mainland EU, that are wholly dependent upon the whims of an unelected supra-national body for their survival and prospects.
If you want to live in an EU region that is dictated to by an unelected, unaccountable, dictatorship, go ahead. Move to Brussels.
Leave the UK alone!
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#139
"Why didnt the BBC's dumb-down economic/polital team didnt make much effort earlier?"
Nick was busy having his makeup applied before his next TV appearance (removing the Brown stain from his nose no doubt).
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@10
"At 11:29am on 11 Dec 2008, chrisleopard wrote:
Brown is indeed taking a big risk, but the polls have consistently suggested that the public trusts him over Cameron. That has to count for something."
Does it? Why?
By what chain of logic does it follow that because more people believe him he is right?
People believe him because he is telling them what they want to hear. It has been shown numerous times that if you tell people two versions of events, one that they want to hear one that they don't, they are more inclined to be optimistic and believe the most favourable version.
Personally (this is a blog after all) I don't like Labour, but I do have a lot of respect for Brown. Imo he is the head and shoulders above the rest of his party, and one of the few in parliament with any integrity at all.
I think he genuinely believes what he is doing is in the country's best interests. Unfortunately however, I also think he is wrong. It is because of this belief in what he is doing despite its (what I would consider to be obvious) many failings that I also feel that he and his party should be thrown out, and quickly before they dig the whole any deeper.
Conversely, whilst I generally agree with a little over half of Conservative policies, I don't like David Cameron. I think he is a political chameleon and he is probably only saying what he is saying, not because he necessarily believes it, but because he feels it has the best chance of getting him elected. He is basically "Blair in Blue".
Sadly, I also think that his party is taking the right line with the crisis. TO my mind the ideal solution would be for the conservatives to win, under a different leader (though I have no idea who, I wouldn't trust any of them as far as I could throw them,) but to follow their current policy.
Look at it this way:
What caused the problem, right at the start?
Bad debt. People privately and with business borrowing more than they could afford, on the mistaken belief that the "economy will be strong forever, boom and bust is gone" (Yes I know I have paraphrased Brown, and I'm also aware the problem came to a head in the US first, but Brown basically summarised the attitudes around much of the western world when he said what he did.)
What is the solution to the bad and unaffordable debt problem? Well, under Labour it is to borrow more and spend it to get us through the hard times, then pay it back later when we can afford it? In what way is that behaviour anything other than the behaviour that caused the problem on a larger scale? And I feel a larger scale cause will result in the larger scale problem.
I know people won't like it, but sadly the solution really is to take our medicine now and get on with it. Sorry Gordon, you've got to go.
Note: You can bet that if Browns policy doesn't work, (which it won't) when he gets voted out (which he will after the policy fails) and the Conservatives come in to clean up his mess (which they will), he (Gordon Brown or his successor) will then try to blame all the problems and hard times we will have to go through on the Conservatives (which he will).
I know this will happen, as all policians are the same. It was only about two weeks ago that someone on these forums was claiming that the worlds economic problems were a result of Thatchers policies and the collapse of the trade unions... Some people need a serious reality check, and the best place to start with that is at the top.
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143 Shellingout:
Emigrating sounds a good idea, and good luck, though I wish I had done it before Sterling started turning into confetti!
But where can one go? I have wondered about Spain or NZ. Brazil looks well positioned economically, but perhaps too much of a culture shock for me. Any advice welcome.
Emigrating would solve another problem for me, as my girlfriend is fed up with me explaining that the UK economy is toast!
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#137
Whinge whinge whinge. Nobody on here seems to want to take any personal responsibility for getting into debt. That is what the problem is. If New Labour had tried to bring in legislation to curb borrowing the same people who are whingeing here today would have accused them of creating a 'nanny state'.
------------------------------------------------
I agree that people should take more responsibility for their actions but it wouldn't have taken legislation to curb borrowing - allowing the Monetary Policy Committee to take House Price Inflation into account when setting intrest rates would have put some brakes on - a measure many analysts, and both main opposition parties, highlighted at the time.
Unfortunately this Government has been on a borrowing binge of it's own since 2000 and so couldn't see the problems ahead.
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Destroy the pound, destroy our economy.
NULabour have shown their true colours in this total shed of our independance and our way of life.
We will have no choice but to join the EU, to survive as a nation, thanks a lot Labour, thanks for the choice!.
No choice no vision, just lies, spin and yet more denial. Exactly who does this government work for exactly? This to me is the final nail in the coffin for us as a nation, our values and our history is well and truly dead.
These fools that back up this government have no idea what way we are going, and our pride and our way of life will be desolved into global control of them with the big fat pay checks.
What has become of us? are we stupid, why do we not stand up and do what they did in Greece, or atleast stand up and drag this fool from office onto the streets of London, so that the people.. YES people can run our nation and care for our people!
Never have I seen such anger for one person, i hope he sleeps well at night!
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Anyone heard SUPERTWAT today??
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Everyone talks of getting bank lending back to "normal" levels, but surely you don't have to go that far back to find current levels of lending as "normal". Thus, could it not be argued that Gordon the Golem is urging the banks to return to "abnormal" levels of lending and the "abnormal" levels of lending that got the banks and everyone else in this mess?
Collectively the world went on a borrowing binge and now the hangover has arrived, with Dr Brown recommending "hair of the dog" as the cure.
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117
6 Fear of the Tories
They have'nt forgotten the UK induced busts of the early 80's,the early 90's - Black Monday,Black Tuesday,Black Wednesday,Black Thursday,Black Friday....
The Pool Tax,5 million unemployed,father turned against son by Thatchers anti miners war,15% inflation,13% interest rates,despair,doom, sleaze - Archer,Aitken,Keith Best,Hamiltons..
They have'nt forgotten the sheer incompetence of Major, of Lamont,of Lawson,of the fact Cameron is the disciple of Thatcher,of Lamont....
They have'nt forgotten the shame of a regime that supported Apartheid,supported Pinochet,cow-towed to Regan....
They have'nt forgotten state assets were given away and revenues spent on the rich....they have'nt forgotten NORTH SEA OIL REVENUES WASTED on 5 million unemployed..
They have'nt forgotten the gross injustice of it all and fundamentally BRITAIN WAS IN RECESSION BECAUSE OF THE TORIES...the rest of the World looked on incredulous...
People have LONG MEMORIES..
This lot aint good...that lot were an unmitigated DISASTER!
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164#
GAD:
But, considering what an advocate of Lady Thatcher your man Brown is....
WE ALREADY HAVE ALL THOSE THINGS!!
So... in your book..... if we vote DC in, we get rid of the northerners, the brummies, the taffs, the jocks....
where do I sign up???
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The Germans approach to unification and Yugoslavia suggests their finance and foreign policy isn't too great. I agree this is more about German internal politics than anything else. The Germans can be a bit slow to get a point sometimes so I'm waiting for a shuffling of words somewhere down the curve as they get over their sticker shock. This will, of course, leave the Tories dangerously exposed as someone else walks off with their political steering wheel.
As for someone's comment about Alan Sugar saying this crisis had wiped Gordon browns slate clean, there's some truth in that. But, if Gordon Brown is going to sit back and milk the brand instead of developing business innovation and being nice to folks on welfare, he's going to lose my support. I didn't stand on a campaign platform a decade ago to support these issues or take personal abuse for months by blog trolls just to have Gordon Brown pull a fast one.
In game design, novelty and pacing are key to keeping people engaged. Any success Gordon Brown is feeling at the moment is temporary and folks will get bored of it and start asking what's in it for them. So, he's going to have to shuffle the finance crisis off to a sub-committee and front something else. My gut feeling is the worst of the shock has passed and developing the green shoots of business and a kind society from the ground up is where it's at.
One life left, Gordon.
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So if we are to believe all we have read about how bad the recession is going to be, the only question at the next General Election will be "Do you want a Labour recession or a Conservative one?"
Talk about Hobson's choice!
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Post 159 an easy mistake to make re Aston Villa and West Ham as both play in virtually identical kits of claret and blue and both are owned by foreigners who made their money in banking.
West Ham are in real trouble as their foreigner owned an Icelandic Bank and didn't get out in time. Randy Lerner on the other hand sold MBNA a few years ago at the top of the market.
This might explain their relative league positions.
Before anyone has a go I'm not a Villa fan I detest them bit you have to admire the way he has done business and kept everyone onside including donating art to the local museum and forgoing sponsorship to publicise a local childrens charity.
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167#
Not bad ideas in some cases....
So why are we now 11 years down the line and Gordon has done NONE of those things????
Bit late for radical ideas now he's spent the lot!!!!
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Thanks to those who pointed out that German inflation was in the 1920s, not the 1930s - have changed above.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
great andy dudley, not wishing to disturb your capital letter ranting, have you any sources please?
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#109
Referring to Brown as Moses is very apt.
Managed to get lost in the wilderness for 40 years and picked a very controversial site when he finally led the tribes out.
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"- The Irish have now been strong armed into a SECOND vote for Lisdon after voting NO. Where does GB stand on this?"
He supports it of course. He sees nothing wrong or out of place in a policy of giving the Irish 2 referenda and denying the British from having even one!
I also hope that the Irish have another vote and that they see through the lies about special allowances being made for the Irish. Not one word of the treaty can be changed without EVERY EU nation re-ratifying it, so it will be a referenda on exactly the same treaty.
I also hope that the Irish reject it by an even greater margin than last time and kill it off for good this time.
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Nick,
surely the political and economic decision to go into the Euro has now been made.
The deeper in debt you are then the better it is to go into the Euro at something like the existing exchange rate, namely about one to one.
If you had assets or savings then this is terrible for you, because you will get ever lower numbers of Euros for your savings. If only the Tories had fought to get us into the Euro when the rate was favourable for savers, not debtors. I think that this has been another stitch up.
Does nobody care for those pensioners who have retired to the Euro zone who are now being absolutely hammered by the losses they are getting on their monthly pension payments. Mind you if they had bought property then at least they will get more pounds for their Euros if they decide to sll up and return to the wonderful free, democratic country led by the unelected PM who has saved the world.
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Germany is just reflecting the other side of the argument on a fiscal stimulus.
The IMF stated that a country could do this - if they could afford it i.e they had run a budget surplus in previous years for example.
Germany has supported its banks (on terms far less onerous than the UK) and applied a modest stimulus package - based on a more prudent (that word again..) approach to public finances.
From the German perspective I suspect they think that running a budget surplus allows them room to change their budget if the situation gets worse - we seem to have deployed our end game now and frankly if it goes wrong there is nowhere else to go - we will have borrowsed to the hilt.
Given the way the UK exchange rate is moving the sentiment on the currency markets reflects this as well
If, and its a big if, Gordon Brown will be a hero - if it does not then the 18 years out of office Labour had in the 80's and 90's will seem short in comparison. Problem is if it does go wrong we will be paying for this for a generation
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This is what happens when you are as arrogant, obnoxious and patronising as Gordon Brown is. When you strut around the world stage believing yourself to be a god then there are only too many people waiting to show you how fallible you really are.
Well done, Mr. Steinbruck.
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#17
The comments refer to the sum total of the nation: the average Brit owed something like 35000 before this crash, when the state was to all intents and purposes solvent. The State has now taken on so much toxic debt, which will have to be repaid one way or another by the average Brit, that his debt's now nearly doubled. Where will the average Brit aged 40 find that much money from? He won't, is the simple truth, and the people who loaned him via their b
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Brownhas2eyes
It would do government (and by that, I mean any government)good to see that the people are taking to the streets because they are very unhappy.
People in this country don't tend to demonstrate unless we are pushed to the limit. Perhaps we should. Gordon wouldn't see it in any case. The huge double gates which Mr & Mrs Blair had installed (for several hundred thousand pounds) at the end of Downing Street, will keep the likes of you and I out!
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Peer Steinbruck's comments are absolutely spot on. What was a crisis about personal debt will simply becomes a crisis of national debt. Best way to mitigate the ongoing weakening of the pound is to reverse this downright insane policy that Gordon has come up with.
I can only think that he's decided that picking up the pieces of our broken economy won't be his problem after the next General Election.
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#180 friendlycard
We are going to another european country mainly because we have family and a grandson here, and we would like them to be able to come out and stay with us. We already have good friends living there and the move would be relatively painless for us.
We feel that we are both working harder now than ever. My spouse's salary is completely used up each month paying all our bills and keeping our insurances going. Our savings (what is left of them) will very soon be worthless and our home is falling in value. We have gone without holidays to save for a rainy day, and we do not see why we should bail those out who have not been so careful with their money.
We know we will be much better off in a warmer country, where we can enjoy what little we have in life without having to pay through the nose for it. It all comes down to quality, not quantity, my friend.
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greatandydudley
You sound just like a Shop Steward. Are you?
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#187 CEH
"I didn't stand on a campaign platform a decade ago to support these issues or take personal abuse for months by blog trolls just to have Gordon Brown pull a fast one."
I'm sure Gordon is listening and taking note, Charles.
You really are a first-rate comedian. Perhaps you should give up the nerd job and become one full-time.
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Ignore the german Gordon!
You've saved the world - AND it's the X Factor final on Saturday! Hope you've written to them all. I mean that is the important stuff really isn't it?
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#187 CEH
Blimey Charles. I'm glad I was sitting down when I read your comment. I was overcome with shock. Did you really say that GB only has one life left? Are you really beginning to see the light?
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My theory is that Gordon has already written off this next election.
I can't think of any other plausible reason why he's so hell-bent on screwing things up as much as he is - except for one....
When the Tories take over after the next general Election, they will be inheriting a near-bankrupt economy, with no doubt record levels of personal, corporate, and national debt. Hosung, banking, retail, all in the toilet. And tough times ahead.
Gordon Brown is making sure that the people on the hook for getting us through and out the other end are the Tories. And he'll be on the Opposition bench, sticking the knife in every time they announce the hard choices.
He's setting the stage for a Tory Government that will have so much to do, it will be almost impossible for them to fully succeed. He's actually started the Nu Labour strategy of winning the General Election in 2015, by leaving the Conservatives with a mountain to climb, and no money for enough rope.....
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185#
GAD..... you've missed your medication again havent you???
Somebody call for the nurse!
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any one else see the Irony in Nick getting refered to the Moderator? (I blame Charles)
So will our esteamed Prime Minister be zapping this jumped up cabbage eater with his laserbeam eyes, or threaten to pop over and visit wearing his pants over his tights?
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BBC: "Why is the euro doing so well?
Given the weakness of the pound, there has been a flow of money into the euro.
The euro is an increasingly attractive currency for investors compared with its rivals - not only the pound, but also the US dollar.
And the European economy, while showing undeniable signs of being gripped by slowdown, is less burdened by debt than the United States or the UK. "
So as we are hugely burdened by debt.....Crash Gordon's "save the world" plan is to borrow another £500bn
What a complete failure. Time to remove him from number 10, preferably by the ballot box.
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If not, the men in white coats will suffice....
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114. At 1:15pm on 11 Dec 2008, dceilar wrote:
“In 1976 we had negative growth and high inflation (stagflation) with much higher taxes and public expenditure as we do now. Spending our way out of recession wasn't an option in the late seventies.”
And why was that? Because the then Labour Government has pursued policies which Mr Brown is advocating now and had reached its borrowing limits. If Mr Brown has his way then in 12 to 18 months time the situation will be as it was in 1976 with a Sterling Crisis and IMF intervention, followed by deep cuts in Government spending.
I quoted the words of a Labour Prime Minister and former Chancellor who had reached this conclusion through experience.
Mr Brown's reaction today to Peer Steinbruck: "I don't really want to get involved in what is clearly internal German politics here because they're a coalition in Germany with different political parties." "I think the important thing is almost every country around the world is doing what we have been doing." A state of denial or petulant arrogance?
"We also have a deep banking crisis where businesses and individuals are starved of credit."
True. So would it not be a good idea to focus on resolving this problem rather than attempting to re-inflate the economy by massive Government borrowing, over and above increases due to the automatic stabilisers (increases in social security spending)? This is what Mr Cameron was advocating to Mr Brown.
Neither I nor the Conservatives are advocating a “balancing of the books” as the country enters recession. To have suggested that was disingenuous. As is the suggestion that Keynesianism describes Mr Brown's intentions. Where were the surpluses at the top of the economic cycle from which to fund the increasing levels of Government spending? Keynes did not propose the almost unlimited borrowing Mr Brown intends. As Peer Steinbruck said "crass Keynesianism".
The recent levels of economic activity were achieved through constantly increasing levels of debt. That was unsustainable. The Government should be easing the transition to a sustainable level of economic activity and not trying to restore the unsustainable levels of the debt fuelled boom.
Explaining that to the country is the honesty that Peer Steinbruck was talking about.
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There's nothing wrong with hyperbole, and the claims of "arrogance" and faux anger wear a bit thin after a while. It just looks a bit whiny.
If Gordon Brown gets caught milking the brand I'll happily see his bags packed before sundown but that's not a vote for the Tories.
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@185
Do long memories give you blindness to the present? You think this gorvernment is better. lmao
If all the labour voters were to emmigrate when Crash is booted back to Scotland I wouldn't lose any sleep.
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#185
Andy- calm down- you are starting to rant and make even less sense
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#213 CEH
"If Gordon Brown gets caught milking the brand I'll happily see his bags packed before sundown but that's not a vote for the Tories."
For God's sake man, learn to use the language - you sound like someone who learnt to read in a sales conference.
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215#
Starting to rant???
He's been ranting for weeks!! :-)
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Its time we had Nurnberg Trials for the idiots
that plunged our respective economies
into this terrible MESS.
OFF WITH THEIR HEADS.
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GreatAndyDudley 171
Your off-topic post is willfully inaccurate. David Davis referred, very clearly and explicitly, to leaks in general received by the Conservative party from a range of sources, not, as you imply, leaks from the Home Office by Galley to Green. As such, the majority of your inferences are well wide of the mark.
You should apologise and retract (and check your facts before you post again).
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# 185:
We've seen these archaic lists more than once on here and it's nothing to with the present day. Margaret Thatcher will soon no longer be with us but even she as much as I personally disliked her is not responsible for the failed policies of Gordon Brown/Labour. It's all of their own making. The current popular scapegoats are Margaret Thatcher and The USA but that won't wash with the voters when the economy really begins to turn nasty!
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#185 greatandydudley
"People have LONG MEMORIES..
This lot aint good...that lot were an unmitigated DISASTER"
Yes people do have long memories.
They probably remember Callaghan and his valiant attempt to ruin this country.
Or Wilson before him.
Or the austerity budget of Attlee.
Or Ramsay Macdonald and the great depression (blame the US!!).
OK so they might not remember the latter two, but a cursory glance at history books will tell you all you need to know:
A vote for Labour is a vote for national bankruptcy, cap-in-hand begging at the IMF, and then smugness in opposition as the Tories try and repair the economy.
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#36
You missed the prize of the day, in following the herd.
One of the big problems is that the markets price against Standard & Poors' and their brethrens' credit ratings. However, these bodies have an incestuous relationship with the very institutions they rate, so the agencies don't price accurately to market and are disfunctional as a result.
However, if we priced to insurance bonds, who have to put their money where their mouths are, then we get a self-correcting feedback on the true risk of credit. They start to boost someone's credit unfairly, they end up paying...
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CEH stated...
The Germans can be a bit slow to get a point sometimes...
Chuck, I'd love to know what point of reference you use for this statement... can we add more than a passing knowledge of German politics to the almost endless list of other subjects you have you no doubt considered opinion on?
I have to admit that even as a keen observer and occasional commentator on British Politics the machinations of the German system are something I have had little motivation to study...
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I think it is time for Gordon"Mugabe" Brown to be seen for what he really is.
1)At the time he gave the BOE the task of setting interest rates, he took away their remit to monitor bank lending behaviour.
2) He freed up the Stock Exchange and the banks in the "Big Bang" to basically do what they wanted.
3) He followed suit by encouraging borrowing by the public, to such an extent the whole system became unstable.
4) The government went on its spending binge, on borrowed money, the like of which we have never seen before.
And now he is trying to make out it was nothing to do with him and he is just repairing damage caused by USA. Sounds very Mugabeish to me!!!
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I've never been slow to rap Gordon on the knuckles when I think he's pulling a stroke. If this is going to morph into another phoney election or 42 days tar-pit, he can pack his bags right now before that starts getting any traction.
My red lines are business innovation and being kind to people on welfare. I'm a forward thinking and leave no man behind sort of person, and if Gordon starts dicking with that he's getting my attention but not in a good way.
My primary focus of quality, teamwork, and the long-long term hasn't changed since I first posted here, and if Gordon Brown or anyone else doesn't develop that sweet spot I tune them out pretty fast. Life is short and the meter is running.
When INTJ types go to war, one is all you can score...
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There's no way to avoid the recession, and nor should we try - it's an inherent aspect of the capatalist cycle. We'll take it on the chin, and it's going to hurt, but that's life.
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not for the first time, the germans demonstrate a clear superiority over us - football, politics or cars ... same difference
only 3 words really do justice to this little controversy ...
vorsprung
durch
technik
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CEH, Rahere and his friends were in there sorting the Balkans out when you were posturing unsuccessfully on the hustings. So don't you dare call me "some blog troll" for calling you out for your basic ignorance for the second time in recent years (I was using a different name then which was not available under these rules), I've got actual hard track record in sorting out crashed and crashing economies, and a thank-you from their Head of State for doing so.
The first problem when dealing with a crisis is to stabilise the patient. That means getting rid of the dangers, and clearing the comms so we can measure accurately. As the risks are still in place, it's premature to start.
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#117 I would hazard a guess that people only favour labour right now because there appears to be no viable alternative.
They see the tories as the only alternative, and since they are led by fools and idiots, there is therefore no alternative to labour.
Personally I like Vince Cable in all this, but I'm biased, because I had a deprived childhood due to Maggie Thatcher (here's maggie thatcher, throw her up and catch her, squishy-squashy squishy-squashy, there's maggie thatcher. yup, she's still despised up here). And since labour have done no better, to me, the libs are the only option.
---------------------------------------
Actually, thinking about it, the past 50 years have been a non-stop downward spiral for this country really. Except for the NHS. That was a good idea.
The only think to do - the only thing we can do - is axe the quangoes and use the money (all of it) to improve our infrastructure (trains and schools), and invest in training and education in SCIENTIFIC and TECHNICAL disciplines. In fact, I'd go so far as to withdraw as much funding as possible from the humanities (except English, for an obvious reason).
In order to improve takeup of scientific courses, we need to systematically improve the perception of science - starting with the media. They must be made to provide in-depth and expert coverage of science news, setting it in a good light. We then need to improve science teaching in schools. The only way to do this, I believe, is to give schools access to equipment and good quality teaching. And to do this, money should be set aside to provide telescopes, microscopes and real scientific papers to schools. Schoolkids should be testing real, modern scientific theories, not ancient ones that are now almost self-evident. To provide quality teaching and training, medical and scientific companies and universities should be given hefty tax breaks if, and only if, they send staff to schools for regular sessions with the children (average size sec. school of 8 classes per year should be able to access at least 4 professionals for a full day each week.)
Science and technology must be front-page news often, and covered in a positive manner by knowledgeable staff if we are ever to compete in the modern world.
For those of us who have already left school, grants should be made available for adults to study scientific and mathematical disciplines, and tax breaks made available to related industries, both established and start-up.
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Lets throw good money after bad and lose more.
It's just Big Bankruptcy Versus Little Bankruptcy.
Let it ride skill is deciding when to withdraw a bet.
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Wonder if Nick is going to do a blog on Ireland having to clarify what the word "No" means to the unelected wasters in Brusells?
Those Irish have all the luck, we dont get our referendum but they get 2!!
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#212 TomPride
Thanks for the reply. I know you quoted Jim Callaghan, and he didn't reach his conclusion through experience; it was one of the demands of the IMF that the 1976 budget be monetarist. Also, didn't Tory governments between 1951 and 1974 pursue the same policies as their Labour counterparts?
In my opinion the failure of Keynesian economics in the seventies was due to it out-living its purpose. The UK should have abandoned it during Ted Heath's tenure as PM (not that I'm blaming him) as well as with the post-war consensus. Likewise the present Keynesian policies and corresponding consensus should be abandoned in twenty or thirty years time. The goal of Keynesian economics, as practised by Governments, is to stimulate the economy in times of austerity.
To stop this recession from turning a depression the government has to borrow to spend (its tax revenue will/has reduce(d) due to the reduction of economic growth). Steinbruck may be correct about the reduction of VAT having little impact on the economy, but to suggest it will take generations to pay it all back is just plain wrong. Moreover, is he calling Keynesianism 'crass'? Many people on this blog have stated agreement with his policy of having a balanced budget to fend off depression. He is just plain wrong. He is repeating the failed policies of the thirties, and we know where those policies lead to!
Bloggers who have criticised Brown are yet to offer any realistic alternative other than rein in spending (which will lead to deflation and mass unemployment). The only way the Tories will win the next GE is to hope Brown makes more Freudian slips because their policies won't help them!
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If all the Labour voters were to emigrate to Scotland...
The average IQ of BOTH England and Scotland would Improve.
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202 Shellingout:
Thanks for this. You make some very good points. Your choice seems eminently sensible. You will be escaping an economy in a bad and worsening state, which may also have adverse implications for society. I wish you all the very best with your plans.
My own situation has similarities. I run a reasonably successful small business, and got my investments out of the FTSE at about 6200 (which seemed to put far too much value on a market presided over by this government). It is a pity, though, that I did not apply the same logic to currencies, but you cannot win them all, I suppose.
Within 2 years, perhaps sooner, taxes are going to go up. A lot. At that point, the ratio between the returns that I earn from the business, and the proportion that I pay in tax, will become too unattractive, so I shall probably retire which, fortunately, I could do. Alternatively, I might move my business to a location where the climate, both literally and metaphorically, is more attractive.
I doubt if I would be alone in doing this. In addition to companies going bust, businesses large and small are likely to leave, in increasing numbers. It is beginning to look like implosion of the economy.
I had thought of starting another business venture here in the UK, and had identified a very good opportunity, but have decided against this, because I can see no point if most of any profits are going to be creamed off and spent on wasteful government.
It is a deeply sad day when one even has to think of leaving one's own country because its government is taking the economy over Niagara in a busted barrel. It is even worse because I profoundly dislike, not just the incompetence, but also the underlying assumptions and objectives of Zanu-Labour. I think it is in far too much of a mess now for any other party to put it right. As I say, a sad conclusion.
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22:
Very good post.
The old saying is that we vote Labour in with empty heads, and vote them out with empty pockets. Seems very true, this time as before.
Makes me think of what Gollum from Lord of the Rings might ask Gordon. "What has it got in its pocketses? Nothing but a very big hole".
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Nick,
Nice little stealth edit there....
Glad to see you're sticking with BBC tradition and not changing the date/timestamp to show that you've edited the page.
Welcome to the Ministry of Truth - Winston Smith would be proud!
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# 200 shellingout
Get your facts right.
Blair walked through those gates in 1997 to take office, so pin the bill on your party.
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All I have to say was said so well @ 207. At 4:14pm on 11 Dec 2008, West_London_Willy wrote:
Just so blindingly true .. mind you they might wait for the 2020 election to try to win back power ..... if the mess is as bad as I fear it will be!
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234.
You and your business have obviously done so terribly under GB that you can afford to tootle off somewhere, despite the extortion of Britain's onerous taxation- even though it's at post-war lows for both Income Tax and CGT.
It must be so awful for you to be in that position. I don't know how you cope. Where are you off to?
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232:
You are right to say that bloggers are often quicker to criticise Brown than to offer alternatives. One reason for this is that the problems are so big that solutions are hard to find. But I will try.
We need to go back to fundamentals and decide exactly what kind of country we need to become. I would say capitalist, as the alternatives, as carried out in the USSR and elsewhere, are dead-ends. But it needs to be a fairer, more decent capitalism. We need to return to manufacturing, wise up to technology, and create a fairer system which is, at the same time, affordable.
We are going to be a lot poorer from now on. Quite how much poorer will depend on how much debt we have to service, how far we live beyond our collective means, and how efficient our economy is.
So, what to do. I would join the Euro. I would renationalise railways, use them as an industrial as well as a transport asset, tasked to introduce technology and industrial apprenticeships and promote research and development. I would modernise the infrastructure. I would put higher taxes on very high earners, though in a spirit of co-operation, not of envy, making the case accordingly.
I would combine the BoE, the Treasury and the FSA into a single regulatory body overseeing banking. I would impose limits on mortage earnings multiples and LTVs. House prices are still way too high, not least for first-time buyers. I would try to instill a culture, like that in some continental countries, which discourages consumer borrowing beyond very modest levels. I would regulate consumer credit provision, using a corset. I would take asset prices (such as houses) into account when setting interest rates.
But I would also not duck the harder choices. I would increase pensions, and maintain or improve benefits, and carry out employment-friendly, technology-based projects like the new aircraft carriers. But I would have to save a lot of money to do these things; there is no other way.
Over time, I would aim to reduce bureaucracy massively - making much better use of IT - and at the same time remove some of the onerous regulation which bureaucrats administer. I am in favour - as surely are we all - of health and safety as concepts, but our regulatory excesses have surely gone too far.
In future, education should be slanted towards technology and manufacturing. Over time, new members of the workforce would move into industry, restoring the balance between industrial and bureaucratic employment to a more efficient level. And I would accept that, in hard times, government cannot be expected to solve every social ill by throwing money at it.
Above all, and unlike any of the parties, I would tell the public exactly how bad this mess is.
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221:
My 235 post was a reply to you, not to 22. Appologies for the typo!
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It's an opinion.
I've done stuff and been around, and read stuff, and discussed things with people. Folks with my personality type tend to develop deep interests in a wide variety of subjects, extrapolate and connect the dots without missing a beat. I'm just leveraging that.
Chris Huhne of the Liberals, and Boris Johnson of the Tories are similar personality types. Huhne is a one man policy factory, and Johnson got prodded and came out with an avalanche of analysis and numbers on something or other fairly recently. People like us tend to do that.
It's not a crime to have an opinion, and I tend to have one for a reason - it's not just yanked out of my ass nor do I have an opinion just to beat somone around the head with it. So, when some folks complaint I've learned to suspect they're suffering from a dose of sticker shock or have grudges they're not being honest about.
Just so you know.
And I've done stuff and been around, and hit the nail on the head and ate my own dogfood more times than I can count on this blog, so don't you dare appear out of the blue and mouth off from behind the wall of internet anonymity.
I form my own opinions and have a sociopathic level of disregard for "authority" and "personalities", so wading in here and name dropping heads of state or emoting all over the place cuts no ice with me. That's not a winnable battle so don't bother.
If you wind your ego back and start applying some of the technique you're advertising, we might start getting somewhere. If you can't do that your claims and awards are as meaningless as the displays in parliament.
(Note: I've done some work for a national mediation organisation, so am familiar with conflict resolution, and have played a small but significant role in advancing human rights and neighbour relations policy, among other things.)
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239:
My business has done reasonably well, though not spectacularly so.
It would be quite wrong for everyone who has not prospered over the last ten years to blame the government for it. Likewise, though, it would be equally wrong to assume that every reasonably successful business or person has the government to thank for all their success. A lot of this is about individual effort.
If I do indeed go, it will be with huge regret. It will be to somewhere warmer.
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John Smith must be turning in his grave to see what Brown & Blair have done to our once great country.
We are on the threshold of the biggest financial catastrophe ever seen in this country.
Record PFI Debt, record levels of borrow, the destruction of a generations pension funds.
Why is it that the British people are prepared to take this lying down, when 20 years ago we would have been on the streets?
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#10
After a prolonged period of borrowing more than we can afford, Gordo is borrowing more on our behalf than we can afford. I think we are being lulled into a false sense of security by this. The current government borrowing is based on earnings in the future that cannot be guaranteed. It's like someone who's already lost their job borrowing against the earnings they will have in 5 years time. I'm not sure who would lend the money under those circumstances. Not only is there the loan to pay but all the interest too.
This Labour government has consistently spent huge amounts of money on failed projects. I don't believe this action is any different. I think the Germans have got it right - Gordo has got it wrong big style.
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I tend to agree with the picture of decline. The turf wars of management and unions during the post-war Labour years didn't help, and the asset stripping consumerism of the Thatcher years didn't help. This has sunk the batting average so Britain is mediocre, with all the ranting and bad feeling that goes with that.
More rationality and realism would help counter some of the fantasy mindset generated by service industries, and a fairer and kinder deal for society will help trim some of the bad feeling gushing around. Folks could keep arguing about that but things would just sink further and further until Britain is an unmistakeable basket case nation.
I've found the Zen model helps illuminate a lot of these things: good form and attitude, or order and harmony, are fundamentals that everything else is built on. Folks often confuse goals, process, and outcomes, and a bit more understanding of that can help get a bit more clarity. The rest is really just a matter of calm and patience. It's doable.
That's a fair position but folks can get a bit overwhelmed and clingy: things can look so huge they become impossible, and old solutions hard to let go of. Zen is one way of dealing with this. It sounds almost too simple and too easy but "letting go" has a lot going for it.
When people let go, they take a step back and what was previously a big mountain becomes a small pebble, and what was once tightly siezed upon just becomes another thing to throw away. Our certainty and emotions can get in the way, hence the Zen phrase: "Zen mind, beginner's mind."
As I commented at the beginning of this crisis, calm was a top priority. Now, I believe, the worst of the shock is over people might be in a better position to "let go", so focus can swivel to being creative and sociable which will help generate solutions and consensus. Success will naturally flow in its own time, and in its own way.
"There are no problems, only undiscovered opportunities".
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#244
You're the first person I have seen who has lamented the passing of John Smith when set against the current crisis. It's a bit like asking how the world would look if Bush hadn't usurped Al Gore in 2000, but how much better of would we be now if Smith had not died in 1994.
Just imagine, a Labour Party with a soul and integrity. What a difference that would have made in the last eleven years. Or if Robin Cook hadn't died in 2005. What chance would Brown have stood in a leadership election against the bravest and most principled politician the Labour Party has produced in modern times?
How tragic that after eleven years of missed opportunities and broken promises, all we can do is think what if......
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Now it would seems Balls and Brown's spin that these weren't the views of Merkel's own finance minister and just Grand Coalition jockeying has been uttterly torpedoed.
Mrs Merkel's own CDU finance minister hasn't just backed the Newsweek article from Mr. Steinbrueck but gone much further.
Spin that Gordon.
So that would be universal agreement from both sides of the political spectrum.
It would seem Germany is sick and fed up of Gordon hectoring them for almost a decade offering unsolicited advice. Advice to surf on the waves of unbridled debt and credit rammed down their throat, over and over again.
Now, the UK is broke. Germany isn't.
Germany has pursued a tax cutting regime, it has de-regulated during Mrs Merkel's tenure. As a result, it will only suffer a short recession.
The UK hasn't, we will suffer a longer and deeper recession.
When Brown struts the world stage trying to 'save' it.
Here come the Germans.
Brown is finished, his own arrogance is his undoing.
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#237 vor-tecks
You are right about the gates and I apologise.
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#247 I'm not a Labour votor by any means, I simply think that JS would not have allowed Brown to have such control over the last 11 years as Blair allowed Brown.
I was a miner back in the 80's and went through the strike.
I have to say that if I have the choice of a tory or Labour government I'd go with the tories every time.
Brown is commiting the biggest cardinal sin that every financial advisor in the high street will tell you, "Don't borrow to get out of trouble"
Something which amazes me is that not one politician has hinted about killing the root cause of this problem.
"House Prices" House prices have to be bought back in line with income they way they were under the tories in order to stop this happening again.
Gone are the days when borrowing was 5 or 6 times your income.
No politician will state this though because they are terrified of the consequences.
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#247 obangobang
#244
Couldnt agree more, I walked away in 2003, Iraq was the last straw.
My question is what kind of Labour Party shell these numpties will leave them?
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#248 PhaetonFlanFlinger: "Now, the UK is broke. Germany isn't."
German public debt relative to GDP was 65% in 2007, up from 58% ten years earlier.
For the Uk, the equivalent figures were 44%, down from 50%.
Figures are from Eurostat, and are on an equivalent basis. They include PFI.
Why do you think these stats mean that the UK is more broke than the Germans?
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Charles..have you been to see Derek Draper for a psychoanalysis lately?
If not,I suggest you make an appointment.
Earlier,you seemed to have slightly come around to the thinking that GB might not be the all conquering action hero that you have been idolising on here for months.
And,you say that you have a "sociopathic level of disregard for authority and personalities".
Does this include Mr Brown,now?
I think you're confused,buddy.
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I don't normally read Peston's blog but just took a look. It's interesting how companies are brokering wage cuts to maintain employment levels, and the Dutch are even considering an imaginative scheme to subsidise pay for companies experiencing criticial difficulties. I tend to favour those initiatives as they're forward thinking and leave no man behind for the long-term.
After watching an episode of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, I started wondering of something akin to America's "Liberty bonds" might have some traction. We're, effectively, on a war footing and it's one way of raising finance and giving people an equity stake. Indeed, some companies could broker similar deals with employees which might help create more of a "start up" mentality and develop focus and boost morale.
Hmmm. This recession could be "fun". No, I'm not making light of it, just putting a different spin on things to counteract some of the long faces around here.
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With Sterling in freefall, it would appear the International money men agree with Mr. Steinbrueck & Cameron
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Ref: #242
Charles, if I did not know better I would say that you are too good to be true.
You have done stuff that many of us only dream about and I am surprised that your talents are nor being used by our Leader.
The only problem I see is that there is a lot of yankspeak in your posts. Is this what is holding you back?
Ignore the backchat - keep giving it as you see it!
The last one to go bankrupt can boast that they had the best fiscal strategy.
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Charles
Can I have your opinion on this. Labour has always left power leaving the economy in disastrous state.
Now I believe that history proves this but I welcome your evidence that this is incorrect.
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Gordon Brown's problem is that his character flaws and deep socialist principles get in the way of him taking not only the right steps but also, more importantly, recognising when something is not having the desired effect and then changing tack.
He may be intellectually competent but he seems to have never learnt to follow through each decision to determine potential pitfalls and therefore cater for them from the outset.
Many on this blog will know that this is the first priciple of management propounded by Raef Coverdale all those years ago.
Never admitting one's mistakes and then correcting them is disastrous. This is Brown to a tee!
We are all doomed!
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Germany 1 Britain 0
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Steinbrueck is right about the hysterical reaction by Gordon Brown. He's behaving as though Britain had resources, technology and a motivated labour force behind its economy. He's posturing, hoping for the best. Unless Britain re-invents itself as a true, modern industrial economy, it's doomed.
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At last, at last... a politician that's being truthful about the whole financial mess this country is in thanks to our 'esteemed, let me save the world' leader.
There's not one member of our Labour cabinet that I would trust as far as I could throw them. The lot of them are like the great followers of the Emperor that had no clothes. Open your eyes and your minds and let's have a real election of a leader and a bit of democracy back in this wonderful country of ours.
I watch the Euro/Pound with heavy heart... another of Brown's by the backdoor policy?
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Germans are less corrupt than we are. So you don't spend billions on bribes. Not at home, anyway.
They play as a team more than we do. So there's less of the billions going on unearned bonuses. For now.
They have many land-bound neighbours, so they understand cross-border infrastructure projects as a matter of course. So they get on with it after appropriate negotiations. Unlike us.
They believe in long-term strategic objectives, not 3 year profit maximisation. That's why they've still got manufacturing industry and global leadership in many niche markets.
Their sporting prowess is broader, deeper and longer lasting than ours. Because they invest in youth, facilities and society. Over generations.
They looked at themselves in the mirror in 1945- 50 and resolved to be a better nation.
Why didn't we???
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242. At 6:22pm on 11 Dec 2008, Charles_E_Hardwidge wrote:
Ive done stuff and been around, and read stuff, and discussed things with people. Folks with my personality type tend to develop deep interests in a wide variety of subjects
Chuck.... People with your personality type tend to talk about theiiiiiiir personaility type rather toooooooo much.
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#258:
It's a bit like a football manager who has only one tactic (Kevin Keegan anyone) and who cannot change his strategies to cope with an impasse or a new problem. He's a bit like this when he encounters setbacks in PMQs. He seems incapable of changing course to get himself out of a hole. It's called adapting himself to the circumstance.
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They're not mutually exclusive. I could pimp Cameron as the Second Coming just as easily. I just don't believe he's up to the job or has the right attitude, nor the party behind him. If Brown sniffs his own gasses too much and goes "off mission" I won't have a problem ditching him.
I've presented Brown as a 'legend' and 'action hero' since before pretty much everyone, and that's got some traction. Now, some of that is hype but some of it is framing. Brown may or may not fit that role but he's got a choice between sinking or swimming. It drags him down and he gets spat out, or he gets with the programme.
Who said I was grovelling? Not saying there's a causal link between my hype and the Prime Minister blurting out he's savior of the world, but if it's a troll by golly it's one of imperial proportions. So, yeah. I'm a meglomanica sociopath who's been jerking you folks around like a good one, or maybe I'm just messin' you around again?
Confused? You are now. ;-)
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252. jimbrant
Well in Robert Pestons words:
Here are some of the numbers that tell us what’s gone wrong. For the UK, if you
aggregate together consumer, corporate and public-sector debt, the ratio of our
borrowings to our annual economic output is a bit over 300%, or over £4000bn.
That’s a similar ratio of debt to GDP as that of the US, and it’s a record. Over the past
decade, we borrowed and we borrowed and we borrowed: we assumed that the day when we had to pay it back would never arrive, that there would always be an
opportunity to roll over the debt.
Households borrowed too much, £1200bn on mortgages alone. Big companies
borrowed too much, especially those taken off the stock market in private equity deals.
One of the best ways of understanding how all our debts were accumulated is to look at the gross foreign current liabilities of our banks. These rose from £1,100bn in 1997 to £4,400bn this year (again, about three times the size of our annual economic
output).
See here for the full article and down load the pdf. All very interesting..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/12/the_new_capitalism.html
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Is this a game?
Cameron and the Tories have the German Finance Minister on their team (and not necessarily the German Chancellor).
Who else? Anyone else?
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I'm not going to let hype like that run. I've done stuff and been around, so have some achievement behind me but it's nothing special. I'm sure plenty of folks around here have their own if they spent a few moments reflecting on that. I've got folks in work going over things they've done and they've suprised themselves.
My basic premise is that the Tories approach is to asset strip and consume, and Labour spend their time building and pulling folks back together. The "success" of the Tories is, mostly, a bunch of PR and blind luck, which is why I believe that Labour getting its act together and winning the next election will be useful. Words are cheap: nothing beats a demonstration.
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231. I_Despise_Labour
Those Irish have all the luck, we dont get our referendum but they get 2!!
And theyll get a third if they dare to get it wrong again.
and a forth.
Pesky little democracy getting the way of those fine leaders of the EU.
Who do they think they are.
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Amazing how quick everyone including Peston was to castigate The Germans for having the audacity to criticise Gordon Brown who puts it down to electioneering. In my lifetime I have owned two Volkswagens, possibly the most reliable cars I have ever driven. I know The Sun still scoffs at The French and The Germans much like many on here scoff at Margaret Thatcher but I must concede that after WW2 they've done a good job of hauling themselves out of the mire. Efficiency and teamwork are a hallmark of German society. Ignore their example at your peril.
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What has happened to Derek Draper?
I could do with a laugh.
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#74 RobinJD
Answer what?
Why does the German Finance Minister disagree?
Internal politics of Germany, who knows? Wanting to freeload (as a major exporter) off countries who actually do something to fight the crisis? As a member of the German SDP seeing this as an opportunity to bury the current American model of feral capitalism? Who knows.
Not sure why you want my opinion?
I hope when Cameron launches the great re-education for idiot people like me who disagree with the Conservative Central Office line to take, you can be my teacher!
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#268 CEH
Labour used to be the party of the people - the working classes. No more, though. These days they're all out for what they can get. I'm talking about all parties here - not just Labour. It's the greed within Whitehall that people see - particularly their inflated expenses accounts - which we all pay for, and the fact that Joe Public has to tighten his belt whilst MP's and politicians carry on as if nothing had happened.
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Hey, that's not fair. I sniff a set up.
Anyway, I'm too busy "saving the blogosphere". LOL.
There seems to substance to the claim that American corporate lobbyists "bought" the Irish referendum as the Lisbon treaty ran against their narrow business interests.
If I can pull a balhamu, I suppose, if the Tories got into power they'd sell the result of referenda to the highest bidder and cover up this misdeed under commercial confidentality?
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#266 Carrots:
So the problem is not the government as such, but all of us collectively acting as individuals and businessmen? Is that what you are saying?
The natural consequence of that view would be, surely, a George Brown style 'national plan', where the men in Whitehall would know best?
In any event, the article you reference makes it clear that it's not government debt that's the problem - or at least it wasn't until the 'financial stimulus' and the bail-out of the banks.
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Ah, So the now pro EU tories rely on a German minister! to give them an up-lift.
laugh....laugh.....laugh
Miles of motors litter the German factorys grounds, devalued by 2.5% and dropping.
Get a grip people! the 1.5 trillion that Britain would generate on entering the EU, would most likely have to be subjected to a referendum.
Oh, are the tories now the sponsors of the German national socialist party.
Another Clanger from young naive Osborne.
The marxist traits of the tories are glowing?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Extremely Interesting...
to see Germanic arrogance assuming it’s top-euro endeavour as it goose steps its take through a Euro CC policy seeking to put Euro-Europe straight re the CC. –
Already - we can suss; even as Brits wallow in a Euro shared downturn; certain Euro Chancellors (including Darling, bless him for his brilliance in the face of fiscal adversity) vie as acknowledged saviours toward an historic Credit Crunch Christmas.
Sweet Britannia’s Sage, Rosemary and Thyme are far-and-away the most appropriate Christmas Credit Crunch offerings that will save New Year fiscal uncertainty rather than sauerkraut, sausage and Angela Merkel’s watery larger?
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#218 alexander "Its time we had Nurnberg Trials for the idiots
that plunged our respective economies
into this terrible MESS. OFF WITH THEIR HEADS."
Too messy - and unfair to the headsman. No executions, but bills of attainder in the next parliament. Punishment: confiscation of property and make them live on income support in a council flat for the next two years.
Most important of all, those who caused this disaster, should not be allowed to benefit in any way from wealth they might have managed to salt away. Anyone who disagrees with this should be made to look some of the newly unemployed in the eye and explain why THEY should be made destitute, but not the architects.
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If Gordon has saved the world, does that mean I can nail him to a tree?
I'll happily bring my own hammer and nails.....
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#278 Can't one have an honest disagreement with Gordon Brown without being the target of a racist taunt? Who are the goosesteppers now? I don't see any German Deputies offices being searched by the police recently?
"Springtime for Gordon and Westminster... etc"
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187. At 3:31pm on 11 Dec 2008, Charles_E_Hardwidge @187,
Please don't turn on Brown as I won't have you around to taunt any more.
All I'll be left with is greatandyDUD and his ilk - and they don't even make the pretense of being intelligent....
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I hear what you're saying.
I'm no big fan of Mother Teresa or her mawkish following but she said two interesting things: she wouldn't join a protest rally but would join a rally that stood for something, and she looked after the dying poor because she believed they should be treated like kings in their last moments as they hadn't been treated in life.
There's something in that, I reckon.
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@242.
CEH versus Rahere!
The blog version of Alien versus Predator?
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The Germans are quite correct. Anyone who understands basic economics knows that spending huge sums of money when you are already up to your eyes in debt is a recipe for disaster.
Trying to spend your way out of a recession is not a 'plan' - it can only make a bad situation even worse.
Brown is now effectively and systematically bankrupting the country. Perhaps this is his scorched-earth policy, to make things as difficult as possible for the next government.
The reason the pound has sunk so low is because (contrary to what Brown says) the rest of the world does NOT have any confidence in our economy. The fact that interest rates have been allowed to drop so low means that there is no incentive to invest over here for the time being.
Failing a swift election, Labour MPs need to replace Brown before he can inflict any more damage.
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#258
I don't think we're doomed (we always manage to pick ourselves up after Labour has been in power) but I think the rest of what you say is spot on...
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#280
You see MaxSceptic, thats the problem you
attain! most people would rather be the hammer than the nail.
However, your gripe has all the attributes of being the nail rather than the hammer?
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#285
John maynard keynes, the economist that helped to secure the anglo-American loan of 1946, believed that the best defence against
recession was to spend, "YES" spend on employment, health care, homes, transport
ect....
No one seems to be talking about what' the tories are proposing, to let the banks just fall, to ignore public spending, jeez!have you any idea what kind of turbulence and long lasting effect such nonsense would create?
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#283
So Charles - That is why you are so kind to Mr Brown - treating him like a king in his last moments.
Nice to know it.
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#226
I hope Armageddon Brown reads your comments.
SuperGord believed there was to be no more boom/bust. So he carried on not recognising a boom and failed to spot an emerging bust. Now we have bust, I think he still carries the infatuation with his own infalibility and so is prepared to spend as much of our money as he can in order to prove he was right after all.
Sadly, to put out a fire effectively you do have to apply the correct sort of extinguisher - and Labour don't seem to have a clue about what is the right thing to do to get the biggest effect for the smallest amount of intervention. They seem to think that lots of intervention is the best, so lots of money is spent. We like the look of this because it seems like the government is doing all it can to help the situation. But the recession will continue. What Labour will claim is that the recession would have been "much worse" had they done less. Of course there will be no way of proving that.
What Labour will not say is that the recovery will be more sluggish because of the additional taxation to pay for the huge borrowing now.
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#286 artisticsocrates
You say: "I don't think we're doomed (we always manage to pick ourselves up after Labour has been in power)"
Yes, but this will take a very long time to sort out. The medicine to counter Brown's irresponsible spending spree will not be pleasant once the bills start landing on the mat.
But no doubt this is all part of his plan. Remember how they blamed Thatcher for the rise in unemployment, conveniently forgetting that Callaghan and Healey had brought the country to its knees - just as Brown and Darling are doing now.
This is how all Labour administrations end. Unfortunately, some people have very short memories.
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# 288 derekbarker
You say: "No one seems to be talking about what' the tories are proposing, to let the banks just fall, to ignore public spending, jeez!have you any idea what kind of turbulence and long lasting effect such nonsense would create?"
I don't think the Tories have ever said they would "let the banks just fall". Clearly there is a case for intervention - but it has to be reasonable, proportionate and effective.
The Tories have proposed their alternative policies to help businesses stay afloat and to help people keep their jobs. If you don't agree with their suggestions, fine, but let's not keep up this absurd misleading pretence that there are no alternatives.
By all means we can discuss the merits of the various options, but this repeated claim that only Labour has a 'solution' really does your cause no credit.
Everything Brown has done so far hasn't worked - and he wants the banks to start splashing borrowed money around again without properly assessing the risks, which is precisely what got us into this mess in the first place.
As for the "long lasting effect" you mention, we are going to be paying the bills for Brown's folly years to come.
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#226
Funny you should mention Armageddon!
"And man shall rise against man!"
Many authors have wrote about the subject of poverty and of course how one day the poor will turn against the state and blood will flow(Armageddon)
I've witnessed alot of hatred on this blog,
greed and gluttony as opposed to collective thought and sharing.Hmmm, Indeed Armageddon!
You know, only as little as a couple year ago or so
Sarkozy wanted to end some employment rights in france, the workers took to the streets, the french government put the police on the streets, to combat the protest, that resulted in mass riots, large parts of france were! no go areas.
I merely draw to the above situation as food for thought.
Young Cameron, has this mental picture of a broken Britain in his head, lord he has talked about it enough, if Cameron was to get his way, He may just realise that, that mental picture of a broken Britain is all to real, with disasterous consequences.
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#292
Distant .........
The tories oppose the 20Bn stimulus, they have changed thier position so many times on the banking issue and I guess their back to, giving the BoE control of which banks to keep and wich banks to bin.
Look, are you really suggesting that a ship load of money in the bank, serves Britain and the people better at this time in our history?Christ! generations were lost to the last tory government, many today never recovered from that dreadful government.
The multi million package to refer to, as the tories bench mark of help for small business,
Is lacking real bite and commitment?
The private sector and the public sector, need the type of stimulus that this governments is offering, anything less, would fail big time!
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Darling Alexander - having a good day it seems - very few posts swallowed in the moderators' black hole - good show old chap!
I wonder if your comment about mirrors had any links to greek myths?
'Past the point of no return' - no backward glances...
How true.
Solutions to our current crisis have been posted on blogs for weeks!
Trouble is, noone who could implement them took any notice!
I'm surprised that the blogs haven't been shut down.
This government absolutely has to go. I cannot believe that it still clings to power despite all of it's totally ridiculous handling of this situation!
I'M SO CROSS WITH THEM I WANT TO BANG THEIR HEADS TOGETHER!
I've offered to grill them on live TV and get them to answer properly, but to no avail.
I want to storm into his office and slap him with an ASBO!
How can they tell us so gravely that we must manage our own debt more effectively and turn around and destroy the country so easily.
The fraud investigations MUST happen.
Declarations of true balance sheets MUST happen.
WE ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO MAKE OUR POLITICIANS LISTEN TO US.
Rebuild Britain 2010 gives us a chance to do just that.
With what's being said in all places in the 'of Commons, I 'vote for none of the above'.
Gordy's Gang absolutely must go, and the opposition parties had better start listening to the true brains of this country - the brilliant ideas from the blogs.
Trouble is, I don't think we can stop it all now, just ride it out the best we can.
If nothing is done but throw borrowed money at the black hole of previously borrowed money, we really will be the next Iceland.
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At 9:13pm on 11 Dec 2008, balhamu wrote:
Is this a game?
Cameron and the Tories have the German Finance Minister on their team (and not necessarily the German Chancellor).
Who else? Anyone else?
----
Yes, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel
Steffen Kampeter, one of Miss Merkel's economic advisers, branded Britain's soaring debt levels a 'complete failure of Labour policy'.
And he made clear Germany felt it was patronised by Mr Brown when he was Chancellor. The savage criticism left the two nations' governments scrambling to save their relationship from serious damage.
The apparently concerted attempt to belittle Mr Brown also risked making a mockery of his claim to be leading the global fight against recession
Irwin Stelzer, Rupert Murdoch's right hand man
"Stelzer has long been regarded in the United Kingdom as Murdoch's messenger to elite British policy-makers, including Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown, with whom Stelzer maintains close contact."
None of this is to deny that developments in an economy as large as America's have an impact on its trading partners and other countries. Or that America's bankers mismanaged risk. But it remains an incontestable fact that the Prime Minister is pointing a finger at America to conceal his mishandling of the British economy and, lately, the futility of some portions of the stimulus package he has crafted. Gordon Brown's search for a villain might better take him to the nearest mirror than to Washington, DC.
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Joined up Government by Gordon Brown et al,
day1) have a fiscal stimulus including bringing Government capital spending projects forward.
day2) delay the construction of two new aircraft carriers for the Royal Navy due to budgetary constraints!
After 11 years in power only now introduce tough new measures for benefit claimants as the country plunges into recession! Supposedly 589,000 job vacancies nationally, c1.82 million (and rising) unemployed.
Go figure.
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#296
Lite up...lite up...as if Germany will have a choice to ignore this crisis?
who will buy their goods if there is no stimulus?
By the way, Germany has agreed to give 1.5% of it's GDP to the EU as a stimulus package.
Did you know that they also gave their banks a lift of 480Bn euro's?
Hey! it was all yellow! talk from the German minister, the 160Bn EU stimulus has been ratified, over to the Osborne chap!
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298. At 01:43am on 12 Dec 2008, derekbarker wrote:
#296
Lite up...lite up...as if Germany will have a choice to ignore this crisis?
who will buy their goods if there is no stimulus?
By the way, Germany has agreed to give 1.5% of it's GDP to the EU as a stimulus package.
Did you know that they also gave their banks a lift of 480Bn euro's?
Hey! it was all yellow! talk from the German minister, the 160Bn EU stimulus has been ratified, over to the Osborne chap!
----
Could you translate that into English for me please, but without the Snow Patrol and Coldplay lyrics! You will have the PRS on your case.!!
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# 294 derekbarker
You say: "The private sector and the public sector, need the type of stimulus that this governments is offering, anything less, would fail big time!"
The words "anything less" suggests that you believe more is always better!
My point is that help needs to be targeted where it will be the most effective and help people.
It cannot be right for Brown to 'insist' banks keep lending to people who cannot afford to repay their loans. Banks should be responsible, not only to the people to whom they lend, but also to their savers. People who have savings are now seeing the value slashed due to the drop in interest rate. This in turn has caused the Pound to crash.
With falling interest rates, it's not surprising the banks aren't so keen to lend. Yet people will be encouraged to spend money they haven't got, rather than save. Brown sees this as a boost to the economy - whilst the rest of us see this as the very root of the problem.
Meanwhile, Brown continues to borrow more and more, plunging the country deeper into debt.
You say: "generations were lost to the last tory government, many today never recovered from that dreadful government"
Mass unemployment is devastating. It causes huge misery for those affected. It also presents huge problems for a weak economy (less tax revenue, more benefit payments). This is why businesses need to be targeted to help keep people in their jobs. Just splashing out with borrowed money for the sake of it is not a real boost at all.
The Tories inherited an economic mess from Labour in 1979.
Labour inherited a sound economy from the Tories in 1997.
The chances are the Tories will inherit another economic mess in 2010.
Could these events be in any way related?
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AN OPEN LETTER TO GORDON BROWN.
Please read this even if you may initially feel offended.
Dear Mr. Brown,
It is logically clear that only in pandering to the powerful forces in society, usually industry and finance, will a politician (one of which you are) rise to the top of a political party and ultimately to the leadership of Britain.
Now you will have to learn the lesson that the ordinary citizenship will become the most influential lobbying group in this country.
This is a lesson that must be learned by all politicians, for this pandering is a tradition that became most ingrained after the ascent of the Grantham Grocer and which was adopted by "New Labour".
In (unwittingly)accepting the support of tycoons and cronies, by creating failed regulators (how better to pacify than to feign regulation - and how convenient that they are utterly ineffectual), and by deluding yourself and the people about the value of making money from money and nothing else, you have utterly betrayed your obvious duties as the leader of a country.
It should be patently clear that an economy has to produce real values. You may sincerely believe that stocks, bonds, bonuses for fat cats and absurdly overvalued property prices are "real" assets. Let me tell you they are not. They are means to an artificial inflation of an economy that should not have been ranked as the 4th largest in the world since the demise of empire.
This is the "real" economies payback. Pushing money back and forth in the economy has stiffled innovation. Now there is a destroyed industrial base, lack of engineering skills, dumbing down of universities and research facilities in any sector apart from lucrative, generally multinational controlled industries such as bio-tech.
We have been educated to spend and spending is where you tell us the salvation lies. No, Mr. Brown. Unless spending creates productive values, improved infrastructure and a better, more just society which enables the better use of people's abilities and creativity, it is just spending.
Now, the only hope (in my opinion) that Britain could possibly have - and I hope it's not too late - is to develop an industry that is quite novel and does not require a sophisticated industrial base, which, alas, is a description of Britain.
One candidate springs to mind. It is the development and production of a viable and competitive electrical car. The technology required is far less complex and sophisticated than that necessary to develop internal combustion vehicles and some of Britain's other problems, such as pollution and congestion could be addressed.
Congestion, naturally would have to be addressed by improving rail links and prices, as well as, most importantly, entirely moving long and medium distance haulage onto the rails, and creating a network of freight rail terminals.
Also, scientific research at major universites (failing Brunel springs to mind) into solar-hydrogen technology, hydrogen fuel cells and solar-panel technology should be rekindled and supported. The deplorable loss of initiative by intellectuals and scientists in this country baffles me and seems quite shameful.
Mr. Brown, please consider the basics of human needs and economic and social interaction. Please approach as many think-tanks, academics and scientists as you wish, but also, please, just admit to your abject ignorance of the real needs of this country and it's economy.
You might not save the world, but you could save this country.
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#300
I dont think anyone is suggesting anything less than responsible lending?
You seem to flip/flop on the issue's of the stimulus package, we do agree that unemployment is a real long term loss.
We've had 10 consecutive years of growth
our borrowing rate before this crisis was 37% of GDP, under the last tory government of monthly boom and bust the borrowing rate was 43% of GDP and interest rates were as high as 15%.
Giving that the irresponsible lending and short selling reached our shores and the down -turn is real and effective ,It's right and proper we protect our citizens with the stimulus thats required, if we look at the world picture, we can see all major economies taking the same actions that GB has led on!
Money in the bank means nothing, if 4 million people are out of work and on the poverty line.
As the EU and America along with Britain bring nations together and deal collectively with the crisis, then it shall receed!
However Cameron has caused alot of damage with undermining the recovery and will have to answers to his position at a later date.
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#288:
I suggest you stop illustrating your ignorance. The Conservatives aren't proposing to stop public spending. They're saying that the projected increase needs to be slowed down as are The Government. They've started with the delay in building two aircraft carriers. You are merlely scaremongering and it's falling on deaf ears. Do you really think that we can achieve balance on our books without curtailing at least some public spending? Wise up!
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#302:
It isn't David Cameron who has undermined our recovery. It's yours truly and his sidekick Alistair Darling. A sore loser/bad tactician always blames his opponents (Arsene Wenger comes to mind).
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# 247 obangobang
For once we agree.
With the passing of John Smith and Robin Cook there was no one left to defend the integrity of the Labour Party. Hence the present unprincipled crew.
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The very sad point is that, successful or not, the debt must be repaid.
My son is in his first year at university - he will be 40 before this mess of a government policy is paid for and I will be pushing up the daisies.
Thankyou Mr Brown.
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# 296 derekbarker
Keep telling them the facts Derek.
They don't like it up 'em.
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# 301 frankbc
Well said and a blessed relief to hear someone talk about solutions instead of problems.
I would like to see similar industries based around domestic energy conservation too, so that we can all contribute to the salvation of the planet.
Incidentally, our ideas would also mean that we need never invade oil-producing nations again. Now there's a thought!
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302 wrote:
'Giving that the irresponsible lending and short selling reached our shores and the down -turn is real and effective ,It's right and proper we protect our citizens with the stimulus thats required'.
I have news for you. The irresponsible lending and short selling was endemic here long before The US crash reached our shores. You can't blame it all on The Americans.
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Interesting that the Germans don't back the "Brown as Saviour" myth.
Quite normal, though.
Brown's vaunted "UK continual GDP growth" was based on credit, plus cycling tax money via masses of public employment and (often badly thought through) public schemes. But he arrogantly portrayed his "success" as a model for others.
"Others" don't like it.
No surprise there.
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301 frankb
So the solution is an electric car, presumably to losen up energy constraints
The internal combustion engine is 40% efficient and produces pollution in the process
Electricity generation at power stations is 20% efficient and produces pollution. (bar very limited hydro sources and very limited and highly variable wind power). This is the energy source you are essentially proposing as a solution to energy and pollution problems. A source which is twice as energy inefficient as the internal combustion engine.
There are further efficiency problems with batteries which reduce the overall efficiency further. Batteries remain heavy and inefficient despite decades ofwork in R and D. Heavy vehicles are inherently inefficent to move around. Light vehicles with compact lightweight powerplant are the best solution.
Need I say more.
Could I suggest that the real solution to transport is to reduce the need to move so many people around and the answer is already here, it is called the internet. Unfortunately whilst the rest of the developed world recognises this and it is central to the US recovery plan, here in the UK the government has refused to accept requests for high speed internet infrastructure investment instead saying it has to be funded privatedly and inconsistently implemented.
The love of moving goods and people around unnecessarily is a cultural problem based on habitual use of previously cheap energy.
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Dear Nick.
The only reason Gordon Brown went around the Globe shouting "Bail ou the Banks, " was so that Everyone was singing off the same song sheet, No one yet knows weither this will work or not,
Me thinks Germany are Breaking Ranks because, they want to try an alteranative way, and its their Democratic right to do so.
Make no bones about it I do not like Brown, or his Cronies, Britain became a disaster area after he became Prime Minister, and the following three wrecked Briatin for good,
Thatcher Blair, and Brown.---------
We Need a British Prime Minister from England, born and Bred, who put the British people first, and we should have owr own devolved Parliament like Ireland scotland and wales, and the total control of all individual fiscal Policies.
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Even if Brown didn't borrow to limit the recession we'd still have future generations "saddled with debt".
If the only criticism can be the national debt levels, then it is a dumb one.
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At last, someone has come out on the international stage and publicly disagreed with our great leader.
Brown is showing all the tendencies of a rogue trader in the city, who having lost a huge amount doubles up in the hope that all will turn out ok in the end. I fear it won't and that the country will be paying for this for generations.
I saw somewhere that the interest on all this debt will be greater than the country's entire annual education budget! That makes you think!
Just because everyone says that every other country is doing something similar doesn't necessarily make it all the right thing to do.
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Can someone explain to me how Gordon can charge the banks 12% interest on the money used to bail them out (mentioned at PMQs last Wed) and then expect them to give loans and charge 6% interest?
No wonder they aren't lending us any money.
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#313:
I wouldn't want you in charge of my household budget!
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#300
You make some valid points there:
I agree that the government should not borrow vast sums to return to irresponsible lending, and while I think that some sort of fiscal stimulus is required I believe that the present one being used is wrong.
Banks do need to start lending to businesses - this is vital to keep employment and help the economy. I think it's evident now that banks have returned to sensible lending policies to mortage borrowers (ie 20% deposit and 3x salary) which can only be good; however they are also applying too strict a policy to small/medium sized businesses, this is where intervention is needed - not with personal lending which the banks seem (almost) to have learned thier collective lesson from. In my opinion the VAT juggle was pointless and ineffective (and always will be)
I think the only way to get the economy moving again is to invest in public infrastructure: Open more rail lines, invest in public transport, start building affordable homes. The construction industry is always the first to do under in any recession as in the UK we rely entirely on house values as a source of wealth - this unfortunately means that when the markets crash and homes become devalued that they are the first to the wall.
This said they are also the first to recover when times improve. I can't see any movement in this industry for some time yet; house prices are still way over valued - until the average house falls in price to what the banks will lend (sensibly) then nothing will recover
We need to let prices fall more - then things will start to move again. I was just out of serving my time (as a brickie) in the last big building bust (1991-3) and times were very hard, there was no work and what work there was didn't pay. I was on income support for a while (not an easy time - believe you me!) before re-training and changing career. My family are still builders and are struggling now - because no-one can afford a mortgage on sensible terms!
What we need to do to get things moving is to start building affordable housing. The government could set up/buy back sites and offer these to house builders on the premise that they will be sold as affordable homes: The profit margin will need to be agreed beforehand but I really think that most of the big house builders would agree to a scheme like this to keep people working during hard times (it's better to make 20% profit than lose the value of the land). The scheme would be partly publicly funded (perhaps guaranteeing the materials cost?) so there is no credit risk for the lending partner.
Affordable homes will sell all day every day. We still have a large delta between homes available and buyers - the problem is that a house is only worth what people can afford to pay! At the minute the government is hell bent on propping them up. We need to redress this imbalance right away. This will keep people working, will provide tax revenue and also create housing that is needed. We need to educate the house builders that they can survive on less than 150% profit on homes
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
255.
'With Sterling in freefall, it would appear the International money men agree with Mr. Steinbrueck & Cameron'
Would some of these financial gurus be the same 'international money men' who work for the same banks who, er, caused the whole mess?
Would the other 'international money men' involved by an chance be the same as those hedge-fund bosses who fund a certain political party which spends most of its time praying for the pound's 'collapse', in order to win votes?
Would these 'international money men', many of whom are based in Mayfair and Canary Wharf, by the way, be considerably better off financially with Eton Dave and 'collapse' Osbo in charge? [clue, which party wants to raise of inheritance tax threshhold to 2million per couple? Which one has promised an increase in tax for those earning 150K per year?]
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#294 derekbarker
Quote: generations were lost to the last tory government, many today never recovered from that dreadful government.
Great rhetoric! By 1979 the UK was the sick man of Europe. If you look at the global picture industries such as mining, iron and steel, and shipbuilding were relocating to developing countries and developed countries could no longer compete on price. The UK was particularly constrained by militant trade unions and a socialist political ideology. The early 1980s saved the UK economy, and that is why Margaret Thatcher won three general elections and is consistently voted the greatest British peacetime prime minister. To conclude look at the 1980s in context of the 1970s. I was there, and the 1970s were truly dreadful.
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# 302 derekbarker
You say: "I dont think anyone is suggesting anything less than responsible lending?"
But actually, I think this IS the worry. According to one report banks could face "legal action" if they do not "resume lending".
"Resume lending" implies carrying on as before. A large part of the problem has been irresponsible lending. And despite all of this, people are still bombarded with enticing offers of new credit cards or tempting offers to buy now, pay later. All of this, the culture of "if I want it, I must have it now" has helped to feed this bubble - which has now well and truly burst. This is classic boom and bust.
The idea that Brown can halt the recession by massive borrowing and tossing billions of our money around is folly. He will have no more luck than King Canute holding back the incoming tide. (The difference is, wise King Canute knew he couldn't halt the tide and was making a point)
At best, governments can help ease the pain, but not reverse the inevitable. What Brown is doing is spraying weed-killer on the future green shoots of recovery.
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275. jimbrant
So the problem is not the government as such, but all of us collectively acting as individuals and businessmen? Is that what you are saying?
Well its both isnt it?
If government had paid off more of our debt during the good times then borrowing to stimulate the economy now would be an easy option.
If government had regulated the city a tad better then we can say with confidence the banks would not have gone off the rails to quite the same degree.
Brown didnt foresee this problem of spiralling debt, when you consider the claims about his deep understanding of the economic world you have to wonder why dont you?
He wasnt even sounding warning noises, let alone seeking to regulate.
Therefore why should I trust his plan to get us out?
The whole plan just looks like an exercise in positioning for the next election, after which we shall all be presented with the bill.
Its time to tell the people the truth….Youve had a good decade…. The good times are over…..time to hunker down….We need a recession to trim out the dead wood, its just how markets work.
If he had 5 years to the next election this is what he would be saying, but given he only has 2 the above position is not an option for HIM.
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sagamix: not for the first time, the germans demonstrate a clear superiority over us - football, politics or cars ... same difference
The last time we played germany at football, we won. Cars? Lewis Hamilton is the formula one world champion in a British built car by a British team. (OK it has a German engine, but you get the point)
On this occasion, politically, they do have a point. Oh, and this is NOT just an "internal German political matter" as other German politicians have stated that the view expressed by Peer Steinbruck is a clear representation of the opinion held by their Grand Coalition. They, quite rightly, believe that to Borrow ones way out of debt, is like binge eating one's way out of obesity.
It is the policy of a lunatic.
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#315 shellingout
You asked, quote, can someone explain to me how Gordon can charge the banks 12% interest on the money used to bail them out (mentioned at PMQs last Wed) and then expect them to give loans and charge 6% interest?
Quite right, they can't. That's why Great Gordon's bank recapitalisation is failing, and why other countries are not copying it. The failures in the detail, as David Cameron pointed out this week. I suggest you repeat your post periodically until a Labour blogger can give you an intelligent answer.
On the one hand Gordon wants the banks to rebuild their balance sheets using new formulae provided by the FSA, and on the other lend to all and sundry to support Gordon's latest borrowing binge. Labour know this is self-contradictory, but continue with it as they have the banks to blame when the borrowing binge doesn't work. Clever politics, lousy economics.
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Rahere. The person to whom you refer is an American computer games salesman. Obviously playing games with us from across the pond and possibly paid for by our taxes and this looney government.
The mods. know it and Nick knows it. Obviously the computer games business is failing him or he wouldn't spend so much time having a go at us. He doesn't seem to like the British anyway.
What the German Minister said was spot on and quite refreshing - but what an embarrassment to this government eh?
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@232: "is he calling Keynesianism 'crass'?"
NO. He is calling Brown's misrepresentation and misunderstanding of Keynsianism crass. He is right. Keynes would advocate increasing government spending in times of recession IF it comes from money built up to a surplus during the good times. Brown increased spending, over and above the rate of growth, during the good times and built up a deficit, so we are NOT in the situation that Keynes proscribed. We are trying to Borrow our way out of debt.
If one is drowning in a pool, would the correct course of action be
A) empty the pool of water?
or
B) pour in more water?
At the end of 16 years of economic growth (the first 7 years of which (were down to keeping to prudent Tory spending levels) it is a travesty that we do not have a healthy surplus. It is even worse that at the end of 16 years of continuous Growth that we have a large debt.
This clearly shows that Gordon can take NO credit for any of that Growth. The first 7 years was Tory spending levels, the last 6 have been due to fiscal gambling by the financial sector and Government, business and personal over borrowing, instead of manufacturing and service productivity.
That only leaves 3 years of the labour Government when the economy was sound, because they had not gotten around to messing things up yet. That was 1999 - 2001. What were labour doing then? Oh yeah, vandalising our constitutional arrangements, wrecking farming with foot and mouth and building the Dome.
Be in no doubt, though, that was when they started to wreck the economy and build up a mountain of bad debt under which to hide that fact.
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When trying to 'stimulate' the economy, isn't it interesting to look at Brown's priorities?
Several people have already referred to the two new aircraft carriers which have now been delayed. These would have produced a considerable boost to the economy, secured thousands of jobs, and made a real contribution to national security. The cost - 4 bn
Meanwhile, Brown presses on with ID cards, that will NOT provide thousands of jobs and do nothing to help national security. The cost - 18 bn.
This tells us that Brown does not understand how the economy works - and alarmingly, he is more interested in State Control than National Defence.
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CEH: "It's not a crime to have an opinion, and I tend to have one for a reason"
Actually CEH, that depends on the opinion doesn't it?
Under your beloved leader Brown's labour misrule, certain opinions HAVE been outlawed.
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303. sicilian
'I suggest you stop illustrating your ignorance. The Conservatives aren't proposing to stop public spending. They're saying that the projected increase needs to be slowed down as are The Government.'
Let's get real here. If the Tories were in office now, they would also be putting the same amount of stimulus into the country as Brown is doing now.
When push comes to democratic shove, principles such as adherence to the 'free-market' get ditched by politicians in office. You only have to consider what that notorious lefty called Bush has agreed to in the States. Part-nationalising Citibank, for goodness' sake.
The same goes for all the other 'right-wing'
governments of the world. Even Switzerland, perhaps the most conservative of all countries ever to cheat the world's citizens of the wealthy's tax revenue [hang your head in shame, Lewis Hamilton et al.] has pump-primed its economy, part nationalised its major bank, and has effectively 0% interest rates.
For Cameron and 'collapse' to pretend that they would do anything different is sheer nonsense. They might direct their tax cuts towards their city funders via reducing the top rate, or playing with inheritance tax, but they would spend the same in total as GB. It would be both economic and electoral suicide to 'do nothing' and watch the UK economy (and pound, by the way) slide off into the sunset.
As has been noted in several places, the words of Steinbruck and Dampfer are totally at odds with what the German government has actually done. The German government is even more indebted than ours, and also has the millstone of the rest of the Eurozone to support.
The reason Steinbruck etc don't want Britain to do the same as they themselves are doing is that it has the effect of making the pound cheaper against the Euro. This makes our debts smaller, and our prospects for recovery brighter, but has the opposite effect on Germany etc.
The weakness of sterling has absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals, it's all about the relative size of the underlying economies. Plus, in any financial crisis Britain PLC gets 'shorted' by the gurus of Canary Wharf and Mayfair [yes, they of great knowledge] because The City of London is still (thanks to Brown's intervention to save the banks) the epicentre of global finance. The alternative is to allow the world's financial epicentre to drift off into another country's domain.
Now, guess where Steinbruck and Dampfer would like the world's financial epicentre to relocate to? [clue, it was once the site of a Furt, owned by the Franks]
A weak pound v the Euro is great news for us, and will cushion the blow of recession, but it's terrible news for Germany and the entire Eurozone. Where is any US or Asian multinational going to invest within the EU, if not in the UK, at these rates? Whose workers will be laid off first, at these rates?
Ask yourselves this, if the pound is only worth a Euro, can Mercedes increase their prices to UK customers to compensate? [no way] Can Mediterranean countries survive with their tourism industries decimated?
[No].
No wonder some German politicians have broken silence.
But don't think that it's for any other reason apart from economic self-interest.
The same goes for Cameron and his 'collapse' chum. Whatever they say, they would have part-nationalised our banks before they saw them collapse, and they would pump money into our economy, before they saw that collapse.
But Brown must not do it, in case the economy doesn't collapse, and he gets re-elected!
It's called Realpolitik, I believe.
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"Why is it that the British people are prepared to take this lying down, when 20 years ago we would have been on the streets?"
Because when over a million people took to the streets to try to prevent an illegal war of aggression taking place, the Government totally ignored them.
When we were promised a referendum on the EU treaty, they broke their promise and ignored our incredulity.
Now it is universally regarded as pointless and in some cases illegal to protest. At best you will be completely ignored, at worst you will be arrested and detained and get a criminal record, for peacefully demonstrating your opinion.
So people simply switch off, and wait for the X factor final instead.
This labour Government has NEVER shown that it has the interests of the British people at heart. All it wants from us are our obedience, votes and money.
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Why is the current headline "Milliband: Germany backs UK policy"? Clearly this is not true from what spokesmen from the German government have said.
Up until the time that a German spokesman does publically back the UK policy, could the headline be altered to "Kampeter: Germany does not back UK policy"?
This appears to be the actual state of affairs, surely?
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derekbarker
Germany may have agreed to inject some cash into their economy through the EU.
They have not agreed to borrow half a trillion pounds from the Chinese and Arabs to get re-elected in two years' time.
You really are the most sickening of ZanuLabour apologists.
I bet you don't talk like this in public, where people can see who you are.
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It is 95% likely that derekbarker is a "core labour voter" (sits on backside doing nothing), although there is a 5% chance he "works" in Millbank for Editorial Intelligence, trolling the internet.
Grow up, Derek. The "blame it on the Tories" line was weak in 2000, it has absolutely no resonance now whatsoever.
It's blame it on "we have ended Tory boom and bust" Brown time.
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purpledogzzz
I watched Question Time last night.
I found out that we are not allowed to demonstrate within two miles of the House of Commons. I think this is outrageous.
This must have been passed recently. Can anyone tell me when?
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I seem to remember we copied the Germans during the last recession.
We set very high interest rates for our crippled economy because Germany was enjoying a post-unification boom (and so to maintain our exchange rate, which was under pressure, we needed to have higher interest rates than Germany to attract the speculators money into the country).
It worked fantastically!
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They have not agreed to borrow half a trillion pounds from the Chinese and Arabs to get re-elected in two years' time.
Absolutely. The campaign poster for the Tories needs to be lines of shackled children working on a chain-gang to pay for Labour's monstrous debts.
We are being enslaved to the Chinese and Arabs just to keep this government in power. And if the great con works and Brown actually gets re-elected then he won't stop the borrowing. He'll figure we gave him a mandate to keep on borrowing indefinitely.
This isn't a 'cheap' (hah) stunt to get him re-elected and then he'll come out and tell us the truth and attempt to rein in spending. he really does thing that borrowing money to get you out of a recession is the right thing to do. When it was borrowing money that got us into recession.
That's why the pound is on its way to its doom. Brown seriously believes what he's proposing. It isn't just a stunt to kid the dimmer voters that all will be well if we just print more cash and then 'do the right thing' after he gets re-elected. He actually thinks this will work.
For a historian he seems to have quite a blind-spot for the Weimar Republic, Argentina and Zimbabwe's attempts to print their way out of meltdown.
But there's insanity for you.
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334. shellingout
Of course you can
You just need to give a weeks notice and obtain written permission.
What more can you ask for
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What are the BBC doing with their headlines about this? They aren't reporting the facts here, if they were it would be something like:
"German Finance Minister questions/criticises UK Economic plan" and "Second German coalition spokesman criticises UK Economic plan".
Instead we're fed Labour spin:
(from yesterday's headline) "Germany 'out of step' on downturn" and today "Milliband: Germany backs UK policy"
Report the facts BBC, and do it by reporting the facts, not Labour party opinion and disagreement of the facts. The editorial slant to the far left is getting ridiculous.
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334. shellingout
This guy got on Tonys tits a bit so we had to have a new law.
http://www.parliament-square.org.uk/
Personally I think this guy should now round to Connaught Square now.
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322. Carrots.
First, without wishing to sound patronising, your posts are in my opinion, some of the few reasonably balanced and sensible contributions to this blog from an anti-Brown perspective. You're clearly not one of those who assigns blame on the basis of partisan prejudice, or because you'd like to see 'one of us' back in power, to keep the proles in their place.
I must take issue with you on the root causes of this crisis, however.
'If government had regulated the city a tad better then we can say with confidence the banks would not have gone off the rails to quite the same degree'.
I don't know how much experience or knowledge you have of 'The City', so apologies if I'm preaching to the converted here.
Regulating UK financial markets is far from straightforward. We as a country have benefited enormously from being far and away the biggest financial centre. It's not in our interests to kill off this golden goose, which can fly somehwere else, if it chooses- hence our liberal tax regime for high-earners, whatever bloggers here may erroneously believe.
In order to prevent this property-based bank lending bubble, Brown would have had to introduce quite stringent and broad-brush restrictions on mortgage securitisation, for example.
These assets have been around since c. 1980, with but few problems. Indeed, they were considered very safe because the last thing anyone stops making payments on is the roof over their head.
You can imagine how loud the squeals of 'red tape', 'nanny state' etc. would have been from the FT to the Sun (via the Mail), had Brown introduced such a measure in say 2003.
The CBI would have no doubt accused him of 'the politics of envy', 'wrecking the City's reputation' and so on.
The UK economy would have certainly suffered, as the world's money men moved their bases to centres such as Frankfurt, perhaps, where mortgage-backed trading was not so heavily regulated.
[Bear in mind that European banks are far more exposed to this kind of dodgy debt than ours. The Europeans loved buying US mortgage debt because it paid say 6% when US rates were only 1-2%, and their own not much higher].
Anyway, the stakes were certainly high for anyone such as Brown to cry wolf on mortgage-backed debt. If he'd been wrong, we the UK would have been in a nasty way, while the rest of the world, perhaps including Herr Steinbruck, would have rejoiced over London's demise as a financial centre.
It's likely that Brown, like many people, thought that something was going 'too well' during 2003-6, for all his talk of an end to boom and bust. It really did seem, however, then, that the emergence of China, with c. 1 billion low-wage workers, had banished inflation, so long the bugbear of Britain and the wider world, so perhaps low global interest rates were the correct policy...we know different now, of course.
Alan Greenspan has come out and said he should not have trusted the banks during the years post-9/11 to regulate their own exposure to property out of self interest. Brown will be in exalted company indeed, when he makes the same admission in a future autobiography, after he has retired like Big Al.
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334 Shellingout
The law banning protests within a half-mile "exclusion zone" of the House of Commons without police permission was introduced in August 2005.
It proved immediately controversial after a peace campaigner was convicted for reading out the names of soldiers killed in Iraq at the Cenotaph in Whitehall.
Maya Anne Evans, 25, a vegan cook from Hastings with no previous convictions, was arrested and held for five hours at Charing Cross police station before being charged under the Serious and Organised Crime Act 2005. She was later given a conditional discharge by magistrates.
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I agree that Germany is right to say Slash Gordon is wrong to borrow so much money, but Germany must remember that if they are doing the right thing it will not do them much good, because they are in the euro zone. If they get it right and all the others who share the same currency get if wrong, they will be dragged down just the same. But perhaps they realise this, and that is why they are making so much fuss.
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Balhamu
I answered your question @ 296
Was that enough for you?
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#333 DialSquareDomination
It is 95% likely that derekbarker is a "core labour voter" (sits on backside doing nothing), although there is a 5% chance he "works" in Millbank for Editorial Intelligence, trolling the internet.
..............
Good description. I googled Derek Barker. There is a Derek Barker, CEO of Conwy Council. There is also a record of a Derek Barker who worked in the civil service. There was some sort of altercation in which he was involved. I'm trying to find out more about this. Same person, do you think?
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#340 carrots
This guy is amazing.
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345.
What you need is a mole inside an organisation with which DB is associated...
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"The private sector and the public sector, need the type of stimulus that this governments is offering, anything less, would fail big time!"
Derek,
The Problem is this. IF the last few years of boom had been supported by increased productivity and a competitive, dynamic economy, then what you say would be valid.
It wasn't. The boom was a mirage made of debt.
After the Tories were forced out of the ERM (the ERM policy was universally supported by labour too) They used the weak pound and our renewed independence on interest rates to put the economy on a sound footing. Even Gordon and Tony recognosed this by keeping the prudent Conservative spending limits for their first 2 years in office.
By the time labour started their spending spree there had been 7 years of continuous growth based on productivity, low interest rates and low inflation and booming exports, the country was in sound economic health and consequently we had a good international credit rating.
Gordon, understandibly, wanted to exploit this to benefit the NHS and education etc..
But he alsowanted to build a 'client state' who were utterly dependent on the labour Government. So he started spending and increased the rate of spending over and above the growth in the economy. This increased spending and lax credit control created the boom.
As he was building his 'client state' of pen-pusher filled quangos, they needed something to do to justify their existence. Red tape exploded and this strangled the productive part of the economy that created the sound credit rating in the first place. The productive part of the economy began to shrink. The balance of trade went seriously in the wrong direction. He had to increase spending to cope.
Doesn't matter cried Gordon, we are still making money and he loosed the finance centres to create as much funny money out of a wide range of imaginative, complex, bizarre and ultimately unsustainable financial instruments as possible. Meanwhile borrowing more and more to pay for it all and debt rocketed. The real economy had tanked, but that was hidden by this mountain of debt.
As an analogy, he built the boom on maxing out the countries credit card. Now that the bill has landed on the mat, and he has no more credit and his income has shrunk, he wants to pay it with even more credit cards. That is an insane and unsustainable policy.
Yes the economy needs huge injections of cash to revive it to 2007 levels, BUT that cash DOES NOT EXIST!
This is something that labour has never understood. MONEY DOES NOT GROW ON TREES. For the central banks it does, I mean they literally create money out of thin air, but for the rest of us, individuals, businesses and the Government, money has to be earned and borrowed money is harder to earn, because although you get the money up-front, it costs so much more in the long term.
So the choice seems to be, less borrowing with the tories or more with labour.
With the tories there will be deeper cuts and higher unemployment now, but as the debt is reduced, more money can be spent on employing people.
With labour there will still be cuts, but less and less unemployment now, but as the interest on the debts increases further, (as the debts increase) then there will be less money available to pay public sector wages and much deeper cuts later and much higher unemployment later too.
Browns plan CANNOT work. It is NOT Keynesianism policy. It is INSANITY.
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#342 carrots
...and now we have the Terrorism Act, which gives the police carte blanche to arrest anyone they like.
..and how long before the 42 days is passed? None of us will have a snowball's chance in hell after that.
Roll on next April.
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Anyway, the stakes were certainly high for anyone such as Brown to cry wolf on mortgage-backed debt. If he'd been wrong, ...
That's what we paid Brown to do. Call 'wolf' or, more accurately, point out that the Emporer had no clothes.
I'll admit that I didn't understand where all this money was being created from. But I knew we were in an insane borrowing binge which wouldn't end well. I'd hoped the folk we paid to do so would have taken a keener interest in where all this new-found wealth was coming from.
I knew the government was responsible for 350bn of it. And I knew individuals were borrowing insane amounts to by ludicrously over-priced houses. I knew a lot of folk were 'releasing the equity tied up in their house' and embarking on a millionaire lifestyle on average wage income. I knew it was all unsustainable.
The great lie we need to nail is that those days are going to return any time soon. There is no 'silver bullet' we just have to work hard, save more and pay this all back.
It is when the Beserker-in-Chief gets up there and blames US banks (for finally, belatedly, stopping us all getting into further debt - he should be thanking them for pulling the pin) and proposes that the way forward is to enslave our children to the Chinese and Arabs borrowing another 500bn quid that I think we must all realise that we are being led by imbeciles.
No wonder the pound is in the toilet. It is international recognition of how uniquely mis-placed we are to survive this recession. Aside from the monstrous debts we are further weighed down by an administration of morons whose understanding of basic maths is on a par with four year olds.
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The German grand coalition have roundly pulled apart Brown's economic policy of the last 11 years. Brown was quick to advise others unsolicited, maybe he should sit back and listen to this unsolicited advice.
Lastly, can we put to bed the idea that we are not so indebted?
The Government has kept Northern Rock, Network Rail and PFI off the books. Taking this into account, debt as a % of GDP goes way beyond 100%
The public have unsecured & unsecured borrowing of 1.2 Trillion, or about 200% GDP.
It all has to be paid back.
If the UK economy is so well positioned, why is Sterling going down the toilet?
I remember someone saying in Opposition that a weak currency leads to a weak economy led by a weak government.
Hmmm. Quite.
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#331
"Why is the current headline "Milliband: Germany backs UK policy"? Clearly this is not true from what spokesmen from the German government have said.
Up until the time that a German spokesman does publically back the UK policy, could the headline be altered to "Kampeter: Germany does not back UK policy"?
This appears to be the actual state of affairs, surely?"
This is yet another example of BBC bias. Two members of the German governing coalition, one from the CDU and one from the SPD, have come out and said they are opposed to Brown's plan.
Yet still the BBC manages to trot out old hairy lip or the snot gobbler to tell us that the Germans actually agree with them.
Mandelson thinks we're fools (if he's judging us on how easy it is to dupe the BBC, he's probably right).
Nick - will we get any more blog posts on Mandelson, Deripaska and the 2 lowerings of aluminium tariffs, or are you still hiding behind the sofa?
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Draper
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#353
"FACT!
Merkel has signed up to EU 220 billion pound fiscal stimulus plan!
FACT
Merkel has previously allocated around 30 billion dollars to a UK style Bank recapitalisation plan..."
FACT - Germany has no intention of borrowing half a trillion pounds, shackling their future generations in debt to the most repressive regimes in the world, the Chinese and Arabs.
Why do you never address this point? Do you think that by ignoring it we'll ignore it to? If so, you're sillier than your posts make out (and that's hard).
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334. At 10:37am on 12 Dec 2008, shellingout wrote:
purpledogzzz
I watched Question Time last night.
I found out that we are not allowed to demonstrate within two miles of the House of Commons. I think this is outrageous.
This must have been passed recently. Can anyone tell me when?
---
2005
The Serious Organised Crime and Police Act 2005 makes it a criminal offence to take part in an unauthorised demonstration within 1km of Parliament Square
See also Terrorism Act, useful for arresting 82 year old hecklers at Labour Party conferences, and seizing assets of a foreign sovereign country (Iceland)
You need to keep up to date with how this Labour Government are eroding your civil liberties.
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#353
"Our fathers and grandfathers DID NOT FIGHT AND DIE to defeat Nazi-ism - the creed actively encouraged and spawned in the "laissez faire" days of the German collapse of the 1920's....for us to be dictated to now by barmpot German ministers eager for a quick soundbite..."
That is a pretty low comment, you should be ashamed of yourself.
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#357
"The Serious Organised Crime and Police Act 2005 makes it a criminal offence to take part in an unauthorised demonstration within 1km of Parliament Square"
No doubt the only one that got authorisation was the "We love Gordon" demonstration.
Not only are this government incompetent, bereft of ideas (the Economist's words), not quite sane and full of hubris, they are also authoritarian, bordering on totalitarian.
It makes you wonder what kind of country people like barker and andydudley want to live in.
Perhaps we can ship them and the PLP off to China, and they can work their butts off for the Chinese for the next 50 years over there, and we can scrap the borrowing of £500bn (FIVE HUNDRED BILLION POUNDS).
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#355
"Draper lost his various jobs and retrained as a psychotherapist. "
Hahaha.....24/7 access to the madman.
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To clarify, here is what a member of Merkel's CDU said about Steinbruck (of the SPD's comments).
Point out where you see the "internal German politics" that snot gobbler and mini-moustache keep talking about:
"Peer Steinbrück's comments have nothing whatsoever to do with internal German politics as Prime Minister Brown has suggested. In questioning the British Government's approach, Peer Steinbrück is exactly expressing the views of the German Grand Coalition. After years of lecturing us on how we need to share in the gains of uncontrolled financial markets, the Labour politicians can't now expect us to share in it's losses. The tremendous amount of debt being offered by Britain shows a complete failure of Labour policy."
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I see the ZanuLabour censorship team are out again. There was nothing wrong with my post so I will repost it:
----------------------
The UK is not well positioned at all.
Read the Economist's view, or even the BBC's view on a less partisan part of this site, we have the worst debt of any developed country, because Gordon thought he'd ended Tory boom and bust and spent all the money during the good times, borrowing as if there were no tomorrow.
However, now we see the house of cards which was his debt-fuelled boom has vanished and we are left with a monumental bust.
Just keep repeating the mantra
"an end to Tory boom and bust"
"an end to Tory boom and bust"
"an end to Tory boom and bust"
and a beginning to Labour boom and bust, much worse, especially as the government is in denial.
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#357 yellowbelly
I do try to keep up to date, but if the media sees fit not to publicise these things, how are we going to know?
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#353 greatanddudley
It is bizarre therefore that whilst Germany in-fights and potentially stands alone in the world - Cameron and Osborne fawn and leap all over it....
But they are not...
Steffen Kampeter, a CDU back-bench MP, renewed the attack on Britain last night in a partisan assault on Mr Brown’s policies as Chancellor and Prime Minister. “Peer Steinbrück’s comments have nothing whatsoever to do with internal German politics as Gordon Brown has suggested,” he said. “After years of lecturing us on how we need to share in the gains of uncontrolled financial markets, Labour
politicians cannot now expect us to share in its losses.”
---
Also, it is a fact that 62% of facts are made up, FACT!
Also, if you type FACT after any statement it automatically becomes a fact. FACT!
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I am surprised that Gordon Brown hasn't derided the Germans as the "Do nothing Germans" yet.
How dare they question the cluncking fist?!
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Our fathers and grandfathers DID NOT FIGHT AND DIE to defeat Nazi-ism - the creed actively encouraged and spawned in the "laissez faire" days of the German collapse of the 1920's....for us to be dictated to now by barmpot German ministers eager for a quick soundbite...
Ha ha ha ha. So that's how Labour is going to spin this. Don't listen to the Nazis?
Sadly I fear your call will find a receptive listenership amongst the hard-of-thinking that typifies the core Labour vote.
The Germans speaking up does at least nail the lie that Brown is leading the world and everybody is copying his ideas.
The UK is broke. Even if the government prints 500bn quid the UK population can't afford to pay it back. We're all broke too. At 5% interest the total national debt of one trillion (one million million) will have interest alone of 50bn quid a year. That's 10p on income tax. The 20p band becomes 30p, the 40p band becomes 50p. Just to pay the interest.
And that's assuming that we take Brown's projections as true. Ie the recession turns around in six months time. And we only borrow 500bn. And by 2015 we are actually running a balanced budget. How? I didn't see any mention of 10p increase in tax rates in the PBR. How are we going to be balancing the budget by 2015?
It is all just economic madness.
Every budget since 2001 has been rigged. They just decide on the numbers they want and then work backwards to justify them.
'This year borrowing will be 43bn, next year 37 bn, year after 17bn, 5bn and 3 bn in surplus five years from now.'
Next year. Same story....
'This year borrowing will be 43bn, next year 37 bn, year after 17bn, 5bn and 3 bn in surplus five years from now.'
Always 'only' five years away from a balanced the budget.
Same with this PBR. Except it won't be a piddling 30bn over-run every year it'll be a 150bn over run every year.
Hence the pound is down the toilet.
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#369
"The real issue is have you ever added value that stands up on its own? I guess, not. "
Oh Charles, give it a rest.
Go back to creating your internet memes and talking nonsense about zen - but here's an idea, do it on a zen blog, not on a politics one eh?
Now run along.
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364. At 11:41am on 12 Dec 2008, shellingout wrote:
#357 yellowbelly
I do try to keep up to date, but if the media sees fit not to publicise these things, how are we going to know?
---
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/blair-laid-bare-the-article-that-may-get-you-arrested-405951.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1509743/Why-was-I-arrested-for-holding-a-memorial-ceremony.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-371004/MPs-condemn-arrest-woman-spoke-out.html
And many other sources as well. Please don't make the mistake of relying only on the BBC for your news.
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CEH#225-
"being kind to people on welfare"
As a working man on less than 25k I am sick of my taxes be wasted on scroungers under this goverment. Welfare is a safety net which many people facing redundancy will now need in this recession, instead under this goverment thousands have chosen it as lifestyle and they need a proverbial kick up the backside. No one has has yet explained how 900 000 immigrants got work during the good times, 2 million plus on incapacity benefit and the goverment claim the NHS has never been better. 10 years of economic growth pi***d up the wall
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I have to say, the perception in Germany of what the British Government is doing, is that of 'the arsonists' suddenly becoming 'the firemen'.
The British Government's position sounds like pure spin.. that's the problem, after eleven years of spin.. no-one believes them anymore..
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It was interesting to contrast the coverage given to this story on ITV news last night compared to the lack of it with New Labour's friends at the BBC.
Biased Biased Corporation.
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balamhu: "We set very high interest rates for our crippled economy because Germany was enjoying a post-unification boom (and so to maintain our exchange rate, which was under pressure, we needed to have higher interest rates than Germany to attract the speculators money into the country)."
that is the dumbest piece of revisionism EVER!
The last UK recession was caused by our entry into the ERM at far too high an exchange rate. So when our economy needed a stimulus through interest rate cuts, we could not do it, SOLELY because of the need to remain inside the ERM as preparation for joining the Euro (ECU as it was known at the time)
So British interest rates were artificially raised to try to prop up the pound to service the needs of the EU and their supporters (labour and lib-dems BOTH pushed hard for our entry INTO the ERM!) instead of used to service the needs of the UK.
These high interest rates were NOT used to get inward investment into the UK instead of to Germany.
In fact inward investment into the UK INCREASED after we ditched the ERM and reduced rates.
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Here's a Churchill quote from one of those articles about demonstrating near Parliament that has particular resonance right now...
"If you will not fight for the right, when you can easily win without bloodshed, if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not so costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no chance of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves."
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DialSquareDomination,
I said that I could see where the guy was coming from, commented on the how well written the comment was, and how a tit-for-tat exchange like that might help illuminate the different cultures and the absurdity of people running off the mouths.
Again, I note folks are just rolling up to misrepresent what I say and badmouth me, and refer the correction to moderation so their version stands as "the truth".
Sorry, guys but I can't let that happen as I'm posting under my real name. The cumulative effect is libellous and leaves a trail of trouble behind that may have a kickback down the road.
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#381
Say what you like, *if* you approve of comparing the German government to the Nazis ("what my father and grandfather fought for"), then it is plain to everyone what you are.
Of course, here is the perfect place to come out and say you think it's crass, racist and cheap.
But you haven't done of course.
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Also, how does the delay of the Navy ships equate with the financial stimulus that Brown says he is undertaking?
Typical spin. What he says & does are two different things.
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#302--"However Cameron has caused alot of damage with undermining the recovery and will have to answers to his position at a later date."
you labour luvvies are all the same, you never take a step back and look at yourself and ask have our policies been right. Oh no play the play blame game, a trait of todays society under labour.
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381. Charles EE Hardwidge
Are you an American, posting from America?
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"367. At 11:42am on 12 Dec 2008, jonathan_cook wrote:
I am surprised that Gordon Brown hasn't derided the Germans as the "Do nothing Germans" yet."
He is probably in discussions with his legal team to see how they could use the terrorism act against them!
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#345
Oh yes I would gladly bet he is a public sector worker protecting his own interest.
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#341 MunichMadrid
A well-reasoned defence of Brown's role in banking regulatory failures (and I am not being patronising either), but one that does not entirely convince.
In the context of questions on Basel II, and when responding to Vince Cable's warnings that the availabilty of credit could result in boom and bust, Gordon Brown replied (House of Commons 18/12/2003):
I suspect that the rest of the hon. Gentleman's party are using their credit cards and injecting spending into the economy at this very moment, so that we can meet our growth target with greater confidence.
I suggest that this flippant reply reveals Brown's strategy of promoting economic growth by encouraging irresponsible household debt. So increased borrowing is good during a boom, and good during a bust. No wonder we are uniquely badly-placed to face the looming depression.
Brown is socially gauche and intellectually arrogant. A dangerous combination. This makes him unable to admit that any of his economic policies ever have, or ever can be, wrong. However, economics is not an exact science (or even a science at all) and economic policies entail risks as well as rewards. A better leader would show a little intellectual humility and a willingness to admit that other strategies may have advantages. We are living in uncertain times, and a recognition of uncertainty should be a pre-requisite for any leader.
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#341. When you say that regulating the City is not straightforward, what do you mean?
When the FSA undertakes its Arrow visits did they take note of the risks that the banks were taking? I wonder what their view was of the toxic waste sitting on the balance sheets of banks, from whom they receive hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual dollops of information?
Your comment about the politics of envy is fundamentally flawed. The fact is that in 2001 - in fact all the way up to the introduction of the FSA and beyond - a fundamental principle expalined to anyone attending an FSA training course on the new regime - especially in relation to the new Authorised Persons regime, Senior Management Responsibility and Traning and Competence - was of linking compensation to regulatory adherence. Regulatory adherence means having a regulatory structure that enables the FSA to meet its statutory objectives. Making a claim as to what the FT, Sun and Mail would have said if compensation had been linked to regulatory adherence is therefore irrelevant - the measures already existed.
So how has the FSA performed in relation to its statutory objectives? Here are the objectives:
1. market confidence: maintaining confidence in the financial system;
2. public awareness: promoting public understanding of the financial system;
3. consumer protection: securing the appropriate degree of protection for consumers; and
4. the reduction of financial crime: reducing the extent to which it is possible for a business to be used for a purpose connected with financial crime.
These are supported by principles of good regulation (which are available on the FSA's website).
Th answer can only be that the FSA has failed.
Does this therefore mean that we need more regulation? No.
The FSA fouled up because either it didn't see the risks to consumers and the financial system or did see it but declined to do anything about it for reasons of political expediency - we were in a boom and the funds flooding into the Treasury were of vital importance, especially given that for many years - including in the boom years - public expenditure exceeded income. The FSA had all the tools it needs to take enforcement action, but didn't use them.
Carrots (#322 is right).
The other alternative is that when the FSA was introduced on 1 December 2001 (to a fanfare from the Labour Government) they didn't really believe in the scope of their powers, their enforceability and ability.
So we can add the usual dose of maketing propaganda into the mix.
Great.
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Peer Steinbruck.
So it's beginning to look like the views of the above are in fact "a German opinion" rather than "the German opinion" on British (and in fact most economic policy).
Of course he's entitled to that opinion, as opinions go it's as valid as any other though in his case (and Cameeron/Osbourne) a minority view.
Perhaps in the final analysis it was simply rhetoric. All potiticaians of all parties of all time have indulged in rhetoric and people love to quote it back at people giving it far more importance than it deserves.
Actions speak loudest, the EU collectively have decided on their ACTION.
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The money markets continue to give a resounding nil points to the gord-elp-us package.....i'm beginning to think that with the slide of the pound to parity with the euro ,Barruso's clandestine meetings with mandelson about the uk adopting the euro and the long term aim of labour to nationalise the banks ....that its all a cunning plan....i hope the irish vote no again...cus if they do....the brussels sprouts won't be able to get another referendum vote on the table before the UK has its general election
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#390
"Peer Steinbruck.
So it's beginning to look like the views of the above are in fact "a German opinion" rather than "the German opinion" on British (and in fact most economic policy)."
Wrong, read the news....the other major member of the German governing coalition has said he agrees with Steinbruck, and it is the consensus view of the German government.
It takes a very blind or naive person to agree to borrow 500 BILLION POUNDS, when we already have the worst debt in the developed world, wouldn't you say?
Q: How to get out of a debt crisis?
A: (according to the dear leader), borrow 500 BILLION POUNDS from the CHINESE and SAUDIS.
Do you wonder why so many people might be against this plan?
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#390
"Actions speak loudest, the EU collectively have decided on their ACTION."
How much is the EU borrowing from the Saudis and Chinese then?
Come on, let's have some figures...
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341#
So... youre saying Regulating the financial markets isnt easy.... (the BoE seemed to be doing a more than adequate job in most cases, certainly where High St Retail banking was concerned, but lets let that pass for the moment...)
The thrust of your peice was "as long as they keep on handing over oodles and oodles of corporation tax, CGT, VAT, IHT, PAYE to Gordon's Vote Buying Fund aka HMRC, it doesnt matter.... we dont want them all flying off to Dubai or somewhere else less regulated than us, so we'll turn a blind eye".
So... doesnt matter how much guano the golden goose keeps dropping on the axminster, so long as those eggs keep coming, it can do what it likes?
You sure your name isnt G.Brown? That attitude to regulation been one of the key contributory factors to the current problem.
Brown has only been interested in himself and being Top Dog. From the moment he became chancellor the end game was always going to be redistribution, tax and spend, old Labour socialism by any other name. Buy the votes of the proles by throwing money at them, funding an addicted to benefits generation.
Yeah.... thats worked just swell, hasnt it?
When I saw your comment about Switzerland (depriving the worlds poor of the rich's assets) I could have howled with laughter.
The politics of envy... "You're rich, I'm not, give it to me, its not fair. Otherwise, I might have to go out and work for it, or educate myself or make sacrifices. Nah. Youve got it. I want it. NOW".
I tell you what, I hope the day comes when you become very rich. I'd be intrigued to see if you would put your money where your mouth was. I'm sure you'd willingly hand over 80% of it to The Great Leader to buy more votes to stroke his ego a bit more?
You seem very attached to an idealistic view of Communism... maybe you ought to try it for size; the likes of Zimbabwe or North Korea should do for starters. You may find it doesnt work though.
Or perhaps Cuba?
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Hi All,
I notice that there seems to be a little tit-for-tat exchange going on here between (I assume?) regular posters. I thought the purpose of blogs was to enourage different viewpoints and debate?
I am new to all this but I don't think that people should take this to be personal. Everyone has a different standpoint and most will have got these from personal experience(s) and in my opinion are entitled to believe what they wish - and more importantly express it!
I don't think i'm alone when I say that we have had enough rights and freedom of speach taken away already - let's please preserve what little we have left.
We all have our opinions to express, we can make our minds up on issues better when we have heard all points of view - whether we agree with them or not is another matter!
But we should all be open to new ideas - at least listen and comment even if we don't change our overall opinion; that's what made this nation great!
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The argument has been lost by Brown.
Comments on all leading UK newspapers, even the Guardian and Independent, are vehemently opposed to this country indebting itself to the Chinese and Saudis, and look upon the Germans as the model of prudent financial lifestyle.
It's a shame the BBC can only parrot the government line as usual. Still, we all know what will happen when Labour lose power, the BBC will have to fight for its existence like any other news outlet.
And a great day for Britain that will be.
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Just think people before you vote....
Do you want a 10p increase in the basic tax rate in a few years' time?
Do you really?
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392/3 Domination
says
"Do you wonder why so many people might be against this plan?"
So Many People? As I said opinion is divided. Are you really saying that the majority opinnion of countries is now supporting the Cameron/Steinbruck view? Who else?
You may not like it and opinion and fact are often confused on here but the EU decision is there for all to see.
As for how much the "EU is borrowing from the Chinese or Saudis" then of course (like yourself no doubt) I have no idea.
Also if you're honest I'm sure you also have no idea how much the UK is borrowing from the Chines/Saudis (if any) However, no doubt you're prepared to speculate, pull a figure out of the air and state as a fact.
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"He who pays the piper calls the tune"
What do you think the Chinese and Saudis will want in return for lending us 500 BILLION POUNDS (£500,000,000,000)?
I don't want us in debt to these two repressive regimes - perhaps the Labour party have things in common with the Chinese communists and the Saudi totalitarians.
Most British people want nothing to do with them.
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"An end to Tory boom and bust"
It's so amusing to listen to Brown.
Here's another one
"A weak currency is a sign of a weak economy and a weak government"
Yes you guessed it - Crash Gordon again. So now we know what he thinks when in opposition, it's strange it doesn't apply when he is in charge.
The markets don't like his ideas, the Germans (soundest economy in Europe, very little credit cards, sensible mortgages, great saving rates) don't like his ideas, ....
Old Bob Mugabe probably does though, printing money is his forte.
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How come Europe's "fiscal stimulus" is €200bn.
Yet the UK's is £500bn....
Does this once again highlight the dire state that eleven years of Labour misrule have left the economy in?
"No more return to Tory boom and bust"
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Been saying that for a while, so it's a good catch there, Eaton.
Your comment pretty much says it all. Talk is cheap, and it's no surprise Cameron and Osborne are playing echo chamber to magnify the perceived importance of the comment and buff their own "authority" by association, but the market follows action.
There's always going to be folks who aren't paying attention or who whine because they perceive a hit on their own status, and the Germans need to absorb that one. I suspect, when they get over themselves they'll get with the programme.
If you paid attention instead of instead of building up illusuary "authority" in a troll echo chamber you'd know for certain and spend your time more usefully. As it stands, I'm not going to say anything until you start behaving. In my house, the squeaky wheel doesn't get the grease cuz, well, the market follows action.
This comment pretty much repeats what the previous one said for a reason. High-politics and blogs like this follow the same rules. Using this as a learning opportunity is cheaper and, arguably, more effective than a Harvard education.
It may just be a coincidence but just after I noted the connection between parliamentary and online trolling, there was a definite change in Labour's approach. Meanwhile, the Tories keep trying to take me down and succeed less and less.
I've been following and involved with politics and games for two decades and, I think, I've learned something in that time. Sure, I've made mistakes but I've reached a stage in life where I'm happy being happy, and nobody can take that off me. I suspect, Dear Leader isn't so different.
Folks have to want happiness and economic recovery, and that doesn't happen by beating things down or winding other people up. Sure, it gets folks a buzz and some attention, which is why the Tories and Germans pulled that stunt, but it's a false happiness and never lasts. This will only change when they change.
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@393
The EU bailout is 200BN Euros, the UK Bailout is 500BN Pounds.
With policies like that, it won't be too long before the two figures have the same value.
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396#
"Tomorrow belongs to you" ?
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341. MunichMadrid7980
Your points dont really contradict me on the root causes but seem to outline why Brown didnt act for political reasons.
The FSA should have been the ones to act though. Read this for a laugh.
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/Pages/Doing/Regulated/supervise/index.shtml
Like much of the public sector, they have a very robust sounding web site, trouble is thats where it tends to end. Would the old BOE spotted all the toxic debt. Who knows, but Browns new regulation police certainly did not.
If Brown did see the oncoming crisis then there are some good argument as to the risks of increased regulation. Say for example he had outlawed short selling or even naked short selling in 2005, then some funds, at the click of a mouse, would have indeed flowed to other markets where it was permitted.
I still am for light touch regulation but even I was quite astonished when I heard that Morgan Stanley, while helping HBOS to raise £4bn from shareholders, was at the same time selling the companys shares short, it turned out that no law or City rules were broken by this.
Browns key failings were:
1. Allowing total debt to rocket 4 fold in 10 years.
2. Not have put some of the bunce away for a rainy day.
3. To over rate his ability to control the markets, when we really now know he was actually doing less than previous governments.
4. To believe that he could actually bring an end to boom and bust. (UK or global)
Any how thats history
His key failing today is to believe that more borrowing is going to resolve this.
Im all for borrowing for good causes, you know, nurses, teachers, pensioners, cancer treatments, baby incubators etc. I just dont want to saddle the kids with a debt so Jo public can save 29 quid on a plasma TV this Christmas.
I also dont want the kids to fund:
GPs earning 250k a year
Nurses earning 100K a year
NHS trusts buying yachts
Council chiefs on 500k a year
Quango chiefs on 1 million a year
State media paying Jonathan Ross 6 million for a 3 year contract.
A Network Rail chief on 1.2 million
A Royal Mail chief on 1.1 million
Channel 4s chief exec on 1.2 million
A nuclear fuel chief on 1.1 million
Nor do I want them paying the final salary pensions for these guys.
And don’t even get me started on government procurement.
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@ 302 Derek Barker Quote: "We've had 10 consecutive years of growth"
More ridiculous, idiotic and wrong revisionism.
No it was 16 years and it started under the tories in 1992. If you cannot even get that right, When Brown was quoting it every week in the commons as so many quarters of consecutive economic growth, then the the rest of your argument falls down dead.
Can you not get anything right?
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Oh come on mods 353 was a wonderfull comment... spoke volumes.
A little sad yes... offensive No.
Lets hope Andy referred himself when his 4 pints of dinner wore off.
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More sleaze:
Jack Straw declares a donation FOUR YEARS LATE.
"But the Commission said it would not be "appropriate nor proportionate" to take any further action. "
Another whitewash of Labour sleaze then.....the real question is, is anyone surprised anymore?
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#398
"Also if you're honest I'm sure you also have no idea how much the UK is borrowing from the Chines/Saudis (if any) However, no doubt you're prepared to speculate, pull a figure out of the air and state as a fact."
OK so who are they going to borrow from? The Americans?
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"You may not like it and opinion and fact are often confused on here but the EU decision is there for all to see."
The EU as a whole has agreed a €200bn plan for well over twenty countries.
The UK has proposed a £500bn plan for just the UK.
Doesn't that say something to you about the scale of economic mismanagement in the UK under Brown?
"A weak currency is the sign of a weak economy and a weak government" - Gordon Brown.
Say no more.
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Highly recommend the new labour trolls to read Dominic Lawson in the Telegraph.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/dominic_lawson/article5299221.ece
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the times i meant, doh....fridays
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#379 purpledoggz
Currency speculators were trying to force the pound out of the ERM as they noted it was set at a very over-valued rate.
We needed to keep speculators money in sterling - which involved having to set very high rates of interest to keep them interested in holding sterling-denominated assets.
This meant having very high interest rates - mirroring Germany which was in boom due to reunification as we were in a heavy recession.
Nothing to do with foreign investment - it's something quite different to speculative hot money flows on currency markets.
So no revisionism.
We wanted a fixed exchange rate. We needed to base our interest rates (indirectly) on those set in newly reunified Germany. This was inappopriate for our economy, and made the recession far worse (and caused more people to lose their houses) than needed.
I find it amazing that Cameron is suggesting we follow German policy - as a key Treasury adviser in 1991-93 I would have thought he would see the disadvantages in that. Maybe we should join the Euro?
I think the truth is the Germans are under political pressure to cut VAT and mirror the approach taken in the rest of the world. They have chosen not to - they'd rather try and free-load of fiscal stimulus provided by US, France, the UK and others and get an export-led recovery, rather than trying to stimulate their own consumer spending. It is therefore convenient to ridicule policies such as the UK's.
I know Cameron would like a second Great Depression. That's clear. I think he thinks too much about his short-term political interest (massive recession, landslide in 2010, blame Labour for the 1st term), rather than the interests of the country (avoid long-term and extensive unemployment and related de-skilling). Following Cameron's diagnosis will lead to us becoming a basket case like 1990s Japan, or going back to the late 1920s/early 1930s.
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#395 chewster
No - if you detract from the Conservative Central Office line, or try and look at evidence, you are ridiculed and bullied by many on here.
If you are not going to follow this, most posters will say you are an idiot or are stupid.
Also note there is a lot of sockpuppeting going on, a lot of plants from Conservative Central Office attempting to shape the debate and use this site to pressure the BBC into only covering their agenda.
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401. DialSquareDomination
BECAUSE......... The UK is best placed to whether the down turn.
Dughhhhhhh!