Election fever
"Psst, have you heard? They're planning an election... The word is that Labour's getting loads of money from its donors... Their ad agency is buying up poster spaces and Peter Mandelson's been seen plotting with Charlie Whelan..."
Yes, Westminster has got election fever again, and at last night's Tory Christmas drinks party the fever was particularly hot.
The first of the claims made above is certainly true but the second two are hotly denied. So why the excitement? Well, this is how the argument goes.
First, things can only get worse. After all, the chancellor and Tessa Jowell let the cat out of the bag yesterday when they said the recession would be deeper here than elsewhere.
Secondly, Labour have got the Tories where they want them, portraying them as the "do-nothing nasty" party.
Thirdly, Obama comes to power in January. He is, of course, the world's biggest celebrity, a latter day saint and a supporter of Gordon's economic policies.
The theory goes that what Gordon needs to do is surf the wave of Obamamania, announce some more plans to save the world, hold an emergency recession-beating budget and then invite the country to choose between his approach and that of David Cameron.
The only problem with this theory that I can find is a small matter that Labour are still behind in the latest polls. Yes, they've made progress, although that has stalled in the past couple of weeks but they are still behind.
So the prime minister would have to consider, in January let's say, whether he wishes to call an election which his opponents would present as unnecessary, opportunistic and a distraction from helping people in these difficult times, or whether, as I still suspect, he'll have no choice but to play it long.
Let's be clear though. It makes sense for his advisors to give him the choice in January if they can. I have no doubt at all that they're doing all they can to make it possible to run a winning election campaign then. I simply doubt that it is.
What's more, it makes sense for David Cameron to talk up the possibility, partly as a way of making an election less likely, and partly as a way to look like a strong and decisive leader. This is precisely what he did last time there was election fever.
Update, 12:00: David Cameron's news conference this morning could have come with the slogan "We really aren't the party of the rich". The day after calling for a day of reckoning for bankers who drove us into debt, he condemned the government's "shameful... macho posturing exercise" in threatening lone parents of pre-school children with sanctions if they don't take part in compulsorary back to work schemes.
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One can only hope it's true and we'll get the chance to kick these clowns into touch earlier than expected!
Shame that the Labour party are plotting to use Obama as a means to win votes, rather than actual responsible management of the UK (which would have won them a few more).
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Lets not kid ourselves, Brown has no spine, he will drag us along till 2010.
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-as commented on the "intriguing politics blog"...
The Tories are getting themselves in to a real tizzy over this...
Mandy - the Master of the Dark Arts - a Tory myth - is frightening them to death...
I have no doubt he has booked advertising space - nothing to do with an election - most likely to get over the benefits of the PBR initiatives - many of which will hit the pockets of the old and young in January - as opposed to their "do nothing Dave"....campaign!
My best guess for an election...late October 2009 - or - if he needs another PBR initiative - February 2010....
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So the prime minister would have to consider, in January let's say, whether he wishes to call an election which his opponents would present as unnecessary, opportunistic and a distraction from helping people in these difficult times,
I disagree with the above paragraph Nick.
How could Cameron, who is currently talking up an election, then claim it as a distraction when it is offered?
Unless of course you meant opponents within the Labour party, in which case tell us more, the last we heard of this you told us all his opponents had gone, mainly due to the Mandy affect.
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Nick, I was just wondering the implications of Gordon Brown's current refusal to allow the opposition parties to consult with the civil service in all this.
Tony Blair had said that they would be granted access to consult the civil service in January 2009 (I think), but Gordon Brown has yet to give any indication that this will be allowed to happen. Obviously, calling an election in January will not allow any time at all for the Tories and Lib Dems to consult.
If an election is on the cards, this would surely be the worst form of gamesmanship imaginable, especially given the current economic turmoil.
Is there any minimum period of consultation that must be allowed?
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'...and Peter Mandelson's been seen plotting with Charlie Whelan..."
I heard Charlie Whelan on the radio last night. He's part of some elitist group who are opposed to the reintroduction of beaver to parts of Scotland. They believe the beaver will destroy salmon fishing. Charlie Whelan enjoys salmon fishing.
Pass the champagne!
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Finally.
Now release the Treasury documents to the tories as is convention.
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Brown? Early election? Hmm.. That sounds familiar. What are the odds on brown bottling it again?
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Roll on an early election, and Goodbye Gordo.
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Lets be clear about this. Brown's economic policies are not something he invented. They were developed by John Maynard Keynes, and they were the same economic policies which nearly bankrupted the UK in the late 70s and caused the Winter of discontent.
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Meanwhile, back in what the rest of us call the real world, things are getting a great deal worse.
A General Election anytime now is likely to be treated by the public as an irriatating distraction from the grim business of economic survival.
The politicians have let us down big-time.
Why can't they just crawl into a hole and stay there?
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I think it's a case of damage limitation. Get kicked out now and save a few seats and try to prevent the tory's getting a majority; Or get oblitorated when the full effects of the downturn become apparent.
I do know this. There is a very bleak mood in the country and people are looking, if not for all the answers, then for a little hope. Maybe a new Government would bring a feel good factor in the way it did in 97 - even if the circumstances (the economy was in a far better state then than it is now!) are very different.
It remains to be seen whether Cameron can inspire the masses even to a fraction of the extent that Obama in the US has.
Can't we just have Vince Cable as PM until this is all over?...
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Britain needs a fixed term system to stop all this distraction
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We are in the best position to weather the recession has been shown to be another ridiculous statement.
The Government spending plans are now ridiculous. How can we be coming out of recession in 6 months time? If this is wrong then the PBR is wrong. Our debt position is far worse and the pound is toast.
If the PBR is wrong then Brown is found out. He will have to go in early
spring. Labour people who want the perfect opportunity to attack the
Tories will want to go now for an Election where the Tories get a small
majority. As the Tories administer the horrid medicine then the Labour
back benches can shout nasty party. (Mandy may see an opportunity for the
big job as Brown would have to go)
Cameron is best with a new 5 seat Labour majority and another election in a year time when the wheels really come off.
On what evidence do you see the money flooding into labour
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Please, please, let it be true.
The country can't wait to deliver the resounding "go away, and stay away" message* that Brown and his crowd deserves.
* (that's the polite version)
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Let us hope that its true. I will use my vote wisely and in tune with the rest of the country... removal of negative squandering dictators.
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I think the chances of the electorate looking kindly upon a government which sees an unnecessary general election as more important than managing a spiralling economy are somewhat remote.
It might be Brown's least worst time to go to the country but that would make it look like exactly what it would be - naked opportunism.
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Dear Nick,
Are you sure that GB has trouble making his mind up over an election? Is DC just stirring the pot to cause trouble? Is the ultimate answer to life, the universe and everything, 42?
I can not answer them all but what I do know is my pension is about to be cut, my council tax is goimg up and my firm is cutting back on hours worked.
Merry Christmas.
Xxxx
ps, YES
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They've been clearing the decks since at least October - in fact, since Mandelson returned.
Things have so much further to fall, it's easy to see why they are doing so.
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So yesterday the talk was all about the "vomiting bug" that is closing hospital wards around the country. Today we have the announcement of "election fever".
Are these two related in some way?
Certainly there are many who are totally sick of Gordon Brown and his systemmatic destruction of the UK economy.
Can we hope for a cure?
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JohnConstable @ 11
Clarifying my own post, when I suggest that 'politicians crawl in a hole and stay there', that is really an expression of utter frustration at the sheer selfishness of these people.
The economic situation demands that they make a concerted effort to work together to solve the problems we face.
But there is absolutely no sign of that happening.
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It was at a Christmas drinks party wasn't it, Nick?
Says it all really.
What world do these people live in?
The economy is in free fall, the government hasn't got a clue how to deal with it, unemployment is rising and will get worse in the New Year, asset prices are imploding and debt is exploding.
Oh joy, just what we need, an election!
A cut-and-run election? I think not.
Gordon Brown is going to hold onto the architrave at No.10 with his hard bitten finger-nails for as long as he can.
He reckons that by 2010 the recession will be over and once again `things can only get better'. More fool him!
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I didn't expect an answer the following day Nick. Kudos to you
Better start asking some questions about clarification, putting in freedom of information requests to actually see what is happening.
Lets infuse the economy with an election, at least some folks will make a killing from all the advertising spend and flesh pressing.
...and I think you miss the trick, maybe Crash doesn't want to win
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Give youe head a shake Nick. The only people obssessed with Obama are you lot in the media.
Most people in Britain just want rid of your lord and master Flash Gordon.
Incidentally, will you still be biased towards Labour once they're out of power, or do you just bow and scrape to whoever is at the top at the time?
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Please let it be true!
And I thought we would have to wait until May/June 2010 to get rid of this appalling, bullying, deceitful, incompetent and brutally partisan Labour party interest before country, government.
My prayers have been answered. Thanks God!
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There is some sense talking about an early election. Labour have had a great time throwing our money back at us as if they are giving us something, when in reality they are only electioneering at our expense on a truly gargantuan scale. We have all been watching "Action Man Brown" stride the world saving economies. I dare say that kind of politics will win votes too.
He will want to surf on the tide of goodwill from his Christmas and New Year giveaways and avoid taking responsibility for the looming catastrophe ahead - as long as he is there he can continue to massage the figures and lie to us all - so he will want to stay on for a while yet.
I do think he still believes that this course of action is right, even though all the pointers are against him.
Has the government really taken the weak pound into consideration when they forcast what inflation will be - or deflation as the BofE is now fearing. All those cheap imported goods that artificially kept the CPI low will soon be costing more, I would expect to see inflation continue upwards, not drop.
And how long will it be before the unions start to ask for higher wages again? And at that point we will see the spiralling inflation we had in the '70s.
And Labour will not know what to do - again.
We are heading for recession, inflation, low interest rates, savings wasted, pensions bust, strikes and a huge national debt. This is Brownian economics.
No doubt in his memoirs "Waiting for Gordo", or possibly "Gord Almighty", he will say that his undoing was the credit crunch. No Gord, your undoing is your flagrant arrogance.
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i dont think so the only reason GB would go to the polls is if he is forced to by his own party.
Labour MP's are unlikely to do that because they will lose out on fat pension rights if not re elected.
Although it would answer the question why my own MP has suddenly been seen locally kissing babies etc etc after years of doing nothing,an hes got a 10000 majority.
I do hope its true,but i just cant see it.
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Cameron will be dreading an early election - after all, most of his 'look like they've just had a good lunch' front bench have still got plenty of pounds to shed before they can be let loose on the electorate.
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The polls, the polls, it's all in the polls.
These people really are ditherers.
Still waiting for the newlaour spin machine to tell us how to interpret this latest mumbo jumbo from the government information ministry.
When is PR going to die the death it deserves? It's responsible for more raised expectations and subsequent disappointment than the British motor industry.
Call an election.
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There is absolutely no chance Brown will call an election in January, the most depressing month of the year when households will be low after the Christmas period and looking at how they will cut back for the year ahead, many of whom have the prospect of unemployment on the horizon. Moreover traditionally it is known that the Labour vote is harder to get out in the cold dark months than during the summer.
He can't wait until after the end of summer either. The government has staked their political future on a fiscal stimulus pushing the economy out of recession by the end of the second quarter in 2009. Can you imagine Brown or Darling in October next year having to announce that the economy is not out of recession, because of that they are borrowing even more than their worst forecasts, which means they must announce more tax increases? The election would be an absolute landslide.
No, no, no Brown can't have that happening. He'll go in Spring.
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I was so happy last time
waiting for my calling,
to tell me where exactly
I should go to do my polling.
Alas the opportunity
never arose
The country's first chance to give
Brown a bloody nose
He watched all the polls
and he rallied his MPs
Until some Northern Rock customers said
"Can we have all our money please"
A man of the people
Mr Brown he was not
for this Great Leader
he never smiled or laughed a lot
And so 14 months on
from the election that never was
we have the campaign that no party
can afford now because
the Credit Crunch has wiped out
the Party Donors all round
And who would bet on politics
when there's a run on the pound?
So a distraction is created
All Christmas all we'll hear is
'Who are you going to vote for..
in the New Year?'
But in January 09
when he reads the new polls
He'll cry "I need a real mandate for change..
or so I've been told"
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12#
You know what, you've got a point. I'd vote for Vince if he went for it.
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#11 johnconstable
Great post - completely agree - an election in feb when most people will be working out how to save money, tighten their budgets, and save their businesses would be nothing other than an irritation.
Given that we know things are going to get worse and true to the current governements form there are further mess-ups coming to light every day (knife statistic fiddles, pension overpayments, VAT cut) it could go the other way and the tory's romp it.
I think it should wait until at least May/June, when we know what the real prediciment of this country is, and what mess labour have left us in.
I will be voting Lib Dem anyway, as I think Vince cable has been outstanding over the last 6 months.
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I would be really surprised if an election is being considered for the spring the risk of unexpected economic news like 1970 is too great. We all know what happened then Edward Heath won (to Harold Wilson's surprise) and we had the 3 day week, loads of power cuts and inflation going through the roof.
I am always worried about people who write 'get rid of the current government' without fully understanding what the opposition parties would do.
It's more important now than ever that we all understand the consequences of voting one way or another.
At the moment I do not believe we know enough about what the opposition will do to make a sound judgement on this.
Come on David tell us what you would do if you were PM tomorrow. Give us some well thought out and costed proposals.
Then we can all make a decision based on facts not spin.
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typical! Brown maybe calling for an election when most of us will be distracted by the worry of living and keeping our homes. He will slip in the back door again then, very opportunistic of him. what a snake. please please please people vote this govenment out! there has to be better way other than labour.
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Nick, love the blogs but lets be clear - you've been immersed with these guys so much you can't avoid politician speak anymore. Try getting through a report without using "Let's be clear though" or "I want to make one thing very clear"
sorry, its just a particular favorite of mine at the moment, I always imagine Gordon or David sitting down with their spin team - "Now remember, rather than getting into any real facts, just to make it sound as though we and only we know what we're talking about, get in a quick.. lets be clear.."
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If Labour want to go for an election in Februrary then the polls have to show them being at worst the largest party in a hung parliament. If Cameron ends up with the most MP's then convention and precedent says that Labour have in effect lost the confidence of the electorate and should step down. There would be political risks for the LibDem's in propping up a rejected government. The majority of the polls show that the Tories will be the largest party at least. Having the campaign in Jan/Feb rruns the risk of a sudden run of bad economic news coming in the campaign. Also people are in a pretty wretched mood in January as the Christmas bills land on the doormat, in short not a good time to be running an election campaign.
I'm not sure they've got the scope for a "recession beating emergency budget." The PBR was hugely oversold and turned out to be a damp squib. They've no room to borrow more for tax cuts as the levels of debt could cause an all out run on the pound. Obama can afford a trillion dollar stimulus package as America is a much larger economy with a far more diversified industrial base. America can sustain levels of budget deficit and national debt that would cause most economies to crumple like paper. Far from endorsing Gordo's approach, Obama's stimulus could well make his look like peeing in the wind!
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Brown doesn't have the bottle. He'll hold out as long as possible, and maybe even say that times are too difficult to hold an election and he'll have to stay for another 5 years to save us all.
This is spin, and I'm sure the tories are ready. I know the country is ready to elect another government.
Now I wonder what the politics of this lost pensions money is? And what about the botched cost cut at the ministry of transport? Does the general population see this as another example of government waste and inability to do anything right? I'm sure they do and will deliver the verdict when we get the chance.
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Please stop talking about an election just get on with it and sooner the better, lets see what happens... and hopefully this lot will be kicked out.
They are incompetent, look at the lost data, the 10p tax fiasco, the overpaid pensions and the Transport Department plan that landed the taxpayer with a £81m bill when hoping to save about £57m there are many other examples.
This lot can't and is not fit to govern and makes novices look intelligent.
What the hell is going on for goodness sake they are as incompetence as incompetence can get - don't they know how to look after money?
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Bring it on!
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Given that Labour have denied that the are going to call an election, what a pointless blog post.
Secondly, that the recession is deeper than first thought is hardly a 'cat out of the bag' - we were already aware of that fact.
Also, if Labour is still behind in the polls then they don't have the conservatives where they want them.
No party will suceed in 'portraying' the other as anything unless political commentators repeat or invent these portrayals.
For Britain's most high profile political commentator, you don't half talk drivel.
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@#14, PortcullisGate, I agree. With the Pre-Budget Report promising growth in Q3 and Q4 of 2009, and Labour being screwed when that doesn't appear -- and it won't -- Brown has little choice but to try and be elected for the first time before then.
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Bring. It. On.
He bottled it last time far further ahead in the polls, some 9% ahead.
This time he is 6-9% behind and that after his 'miracle' budget.
A budget that didn't work.
A bank re-capitalisation that isn't working.
A Pound at parity with the Euro and sinking.
Osbourne was right, bad Labour policies have caused a run on Sterling.
And who said a weak currency is caused by a weak economy led by a weak government?
I expect to see that rammed home by the Tories.
As for 'do nothing' Tories, yeah, Labour are still pinching their policies now and probably will do so in their manifesto.
Besides that, what a stupid retort, what can the Tories actually do? They aren't in government. All they can do is give their ideas, which Gordon then duly steals.
As for after Christmas, a miserable time of the year and a miserable year with another in prospect.
Brown cannot cast a vision of hope, Cameron can.
I feel if Brown bottles this again, we, the public will kick him out whether he likes it or not.
And the shameful edifice of the BBC will be taken with it.
Can we do it?
Yes we can!
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God help us. If he wins (and I doubt it) I will start packing my bags. The good thing if Brown does win is he can clear up the incredible mess he made himself as opposed to expecting it to be done by the Tories (as failing Labour governments always do).
Call it Gordon. I doubt you will but the humiliation will be good to watch. Should they win, you can honestly say goodbye to Britain now. It will be a distant memory come the election after that. (And I will be long gone by then, having moved to a country that doesn't use its kitty to win votes).
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Nick. You say, in consecutive paragraphs no less :
First, things can only get worse. After all, the chancellor and Tessa Jowell let the cat out of the bag yesterday when they said the recession would be deeper here than elsewhere.
Secondly, Labour have got the Tories where they want them, portraying them as the "do-nothing nasty" party.
Point 1. See any mismatch between the two ?
Point 2. Re the second para., is not here a difference between deciding where they want the Tories, rather than seeking to portray them as such ? Why do you proceed on the basis that the two-part portrayl has suceeded ?
As to the chances of an early election, if it happens it will be an even stronger signal of how bad things are in the economy than the plunging pound - which is saying something.
On the one hand, going for it would be a gamble and Brown's history has shown than, politically, he is more Mr Cautious than Mr Gambler.
On the other, he has taken a pretty big punt with his borrow big strategy and we did used to think he was Mr Prudence.
The only thing of which we can be certain is that, like all of his predecessor PMs, the decision will be based on party interest, not national interest.
Fixed term parliaments have some of the downsides of the existing set-up and one or two added - eg lame duck governments towards the end of the period - but probably less bad than the status quo.
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Labour could really clear up here. A rise in recent poll ratings, ahead in the polls in terms of who's more trusted on the economy...
A few more sound measures in the spring to prove the government is on people's side and the election is there for the taking.
A win under these circumstances would send the tories reeling for another 12 years. Bring it on!
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That would be just the opportunity I have been waiting for to reward Gordon handsomely for the cack handed way he has managed the economy for the last 11 years.
Just so there is no doubt here -I don't want Gordon Brown as PM any more - period.
If I have to vote Conservative to do that I will do that even though I think my Labour MP , Paul Flynn, deserves his post.
So it matters not one whit when he goes to the country, he will to be able to count on my vote.
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What a peculiar outcome, Brown riding a wave of optimism that we'll soon have a new Government, all the way to triumph in the Polls...not even George Orwell could dream that one up. With the NeoCons claiming to be somewhere left of centre, and Putin's Russia making out the Skinhead tendency isn't as bad as all that, what odds the Monster Raving Loonies get to hold the balance of power? Ian Hislop, all is forgiven!
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Brown is out at the next election (if he doesn't step down before) and he (and everyone) knows it - after a decade of backstabbing to get the job, he is going to hang on to the last possilble moment (and if he can cancel elections he will).
The talk now is a distraction to deflect the media from the complete screwup that is labour party financial policy.
p.s. Any update on mandleson/oleg/eu ?
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Probably shortly before December 2015. If you can do what this bunch have been up to in Parliament, there's no reason not to postpone the election until after the crisis is over.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
I disagree with those who say that an election would be a distraction now.
The economy is in a complete mess and the main parties have very different ideas on how best to act going forward - spend/borrow under Labour or try to get through without adding massively to existing debt for the Tories. The electorate should be given the option to choose one of these strategies - even if they choose the wrong one and vote in again the clowns responsible for getting the debt to this level in the first place!
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Brown will no doubt bottle it again, leading to Cameron pointing out he is a ditherer. Gordon will then dither untill 2010, when someone tells him he has to have an election, and then he'll probably dither on whether it should be the end of April or the begining of May....
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the reason is obvious.......the penny has finally dropped with gord-elf us that he is in no position to do anything further to help the economy......in the words of the scots guy in dads army...........we're doooomed!
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So there'll be a lot more World Leader get togethers for photo calls and sound bites then.....
.... all returning to their countries to explain that they've had a role in saving the world ....
... all using this crisis to save their jobs!
... and yet none of them seem to have played a role in getting us in this mess....
'Teflon Gordon' has a ring to it.....
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Where are the Labour rebuttall Unit people. Read between the lines of their posts to try and figure out which way the wind is blowing on the election.
I want to know why Vince was fed the pension scoop?
And to answer a point above.
If Cameron spells out what he would do would it get reported? I don't see any scandle about being pictured with a man who sold his shares without telling his friends in the press today do you?
So yesterdays blog was just a spoiler piece. Chance of hearing what Cameron actually says is nill.
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Nick,
I will put money on there being a spring election.
The troops will be coming out of Iraq, the final retreat from a disastrous fiasco.
Afghanistan, we will piggy back on the Americans, we will be sending in the courageous SAS, they'll sort it out.
The economy, again your analysis is consistent with my own thoughts, it will be on the back of the Obama 100 days.
However, it will result in a hung parliament, no clear winner. Labour and the liberal democrats will go into coalition, with Vince Cable as chancellor.
I don't think there is much more to say until Cameron hurls his metaphorical shoe across the chamber during PMQs. No doubt Brown will not answer one question, unless they are planted ones. He will also repeat again his sadness over the loss of our soldiers in foreign wars. How many times must he say this, the number of times he repeats it it would seem that our losses are getting as bad as the Somme.
There is no purpose in announcing it again tomorrow, he really does want to get the Tory Churchill vote. A great war leader, a great economic leader, a man for our times.
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Wonderful, it will be good to see the back of (we're nasty too) New Labour!
Not so great to see the Conservatives back in power, however, if we're all suffering enough perhaps we won't let them stay in too long.
It's perfectly ridiculous that any single party should have a monopoly on this country for more than two terms.
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An election might not suit Brown but others in the Labour party stand to benefit.
If things are not going to get better then labour will lose anyway. Better to stay close to the Conservatives in terms of seats than be hammered and face 15 years of opposition. A lot of MPs who might hang on to their seats now would surely lose them in 2010.
For Milliband this could be the best possible late Christmas present. See off Gordon and become opposition leader against a government that will be forced to make unpopular decisions. Become PM just as the economy is on the up.
It could be a good election for Labour (but not Brown) to lose.
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Oh dear more ping-pong politics.
I, along with a lot of people to judge by the comments on this blog, am totally*issed off by the politicians.
Our system needs a complete rethink and the introduction of proportional representation as soon as possible. That way we might just get some balanced viewpoints in Westminster.
Perhaps a new age Guy Fawkes might arise. Just a thought!
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Sorry, I don't believe a word of it. There is no way we're going to have an election next year.
Yes, it may be true that things will be far worse in 2010, but Brown knows that he's not going to win an election next year either. He may think he's saved the world, but surely even someone as out-of-touch as he is must realise that no-one else believes him. The only difference the timing makes is that he can call an election in 2009 and lose narrowly, or call one in 2010 and lose comprehensively. Either way he loses.
Brown waited 10 years to be PM. Now he's got the job, he'll want to hold onto it for as long as possible. And that, in practice, means delaying the next election and his inevitable defeat for as long as possible.
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This is clearly a diversionary tactic away from the real news:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3793721/Bank-of-England-warns-more-need-to-rescue-UK-economy-as-bail-out-falters.html
Oh, dear. the record £500bn bank bail put is not enough.
What Dame Shrit and the Dear Leader got their numbers wrong? how can this be? Thye know everything and we know nothing.
This government will do anything to shift the agenda...how can you possibly be behind in the opinion polls having spent a record amount of money? Yet this still isn;t enough. So now you have the unpalatabel prospect of making yourself even more unpopular by spending even more taxpayers money.
Wehn are they going to realise that public spending needs to be cut? Public sector pensions need to be cut. Public sector waste needs to be cut?
Call an election if you dare.
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I think the electorate are now owed the opportunity to vote again. I know its early, but it is appropriate...
I don't actually care who is returned. What is important to me is that we've had the really big, very important national debate about what direction we should pursue in order to get out of the recession, and that we have voted upon it.
Things the Government are deciding now were never the part of any manifesto and they'll impact upon us for decades. An election now could actually be heralded as responsible Government and democracy in action. All credit to Labour if they actually go ahead and call an election, despite the obvious risks to their continuing in power...
When we've voted, hopefully everybody in Parliament can get on with the job of implementing it, co-operating for a change, as that will be very important in the near future...
If the vote is out of the way, there would be no immediate need for Parliament to be an electioneering chamber. It could return to being a debating chamber again...
My view is that if the vote means we incur a trillion quids worth of debt, so be it. If it means we are more careful about debt, but more goes to the wall in the short-term, so be it. That's democracy in action...
But the media will have a duty to report the debate accurately, and not get involved in personality politics or any sort of bias.
The best election campaign might be one that didn't actually feature the party leaders very much, we know enough about them by now.
Its everybody else who is important...
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In any case, Nick, you've failed the Mandy (Rice-Davies, not t'other one, not that there's a million miles between them) test. If there's a grain of evidence left after deducting the "they would say that, wouldn't they?" element, then there's a possibility of objectivity about it. However, such talk in an Opposition Christmas party is about as meaningful as the gobbling in a shed-full of turkeys. Unless you're arguing the case that Parliament is as plasticly manipulable as the rest of Nick Park's work, that is...
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"Labour have got the Tories where they want them, portraying them as the "do-nothing nasty" party."
Is that they're/your campaign strategy then, Nick? Good luck; you'll need it.
I'm not sure who keeps getting asked the questions in these polls where labour are only a few points behind, but it's certainly not anybody I know. I've yet to meet a single person who doesn't want to kick labour out for several generations as soon as possible.
I don't think a trillion pounds of debt and general negligence on every front and a leader who doesn't understand basic maths/economics is a good sign that labour would win.
Only labour/BBC believe the "Brown saved the world" line; if/when we finally get the chance to actually elect who's in power will we be able to prove the point that he's not the messiah, he's a very naughty boy.
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So we may shortly have a choice between
The "do nothing" party
and
"do nothing but party"
I think I'll have the first thankyou.
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I've got my fingers crossed that Crash doiesn't bottle this one too. Please, please, please give us a chance to boot him back to Scotland
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I agree, Brown hasnt got the courage to do it.
Every time he has gambled before, he has lost spectacularly.
He nailed his colours to the ERM mast before we got kicked out of it.
Sold half our gold reserves at an all time low.
Less said about the PBR.
Then there was last years election that never was.
Im inclined to think that he will do a Major and drag it out all the way to 2010. Mind you, at least Major had a public mandate as PM, which Brown hasnt got.
And, I wouldnt rule out him invoking the Civil Contigencies Act either to postpone any election til further notice.
If I'm wrong and he does go for it, if he gets in again, I'm going to ask for Political asylum in Iraq. Its got to be better than this!
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Labours only sensible strategy is to try to minimise their time in opposition.
All their time from now to the election will be spent setting booby traps to try to ensure that the new tory government have as hard a time as possible.
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Interesting developments.
I commented on yesterdays blog that there was no hope for 2009.
With todays hint of an election campaign, suddenly there might be...
Irrespective of the result, we'll at least get a fresh new mandate for whatever direction the UK pursues in its attempt to drag itself out of the recession...
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Having resigned Campbell and Mandelson, I can see GB signing up Vince and romping to victory. Maybe a Clinton-like campaign involving TB too - I can see it now - the Tories haven't a hope!
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Economically speaking, I think that the tories winning (and soon) is the only chance of us getting out of the recession before the uk economy collapses entirely.
With labour in charge most people have no confidence in anything because they know the people at the top are running an active scorched earth policy.
You're not going to spend any spare money you have when you know labour will raise taxes very soon but still not bother to do anything about public spending/efficiency, so with labour policies there's no way we'll get out of this mess ever; it'll just get progressively worse until it collapses.
If the tories got in then there would at least be some hope that they'd try to repair the damage rather than to exacerbate it.
Psychologically I think the tories getting in would signal a point where a lot of people would say:
"phew, we can now start to repair the country rather than just making it deliberately worse, it's not all fixed, but at least we can now try to fix it."
and that psychological tipping point could turn around the recession quicker/better than any amount of extra money being borrowed by the government would.
So, bring it on; let's have an election asap before Brown completes his scorched earth policy.
After all, it's about time that we had a leader that was actually elected in some shape or form and not just a delusional despotic idiot in charge.
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The Tories should be worried. They're bereft of any coherent alternatives to Gordon's cosmic borrowing, taxing and spending binge.
Unless and until a brave politician tells the voters that we MUST transfer resources (people) from the huge, bloated, wasteful, unproductive public sector (Labour's client state) to the wealth-creating, productive, profit-making, tax-paying private sector (staggering under the monumental burden of funding the client state!) then we'll continue on our trajectory towards basket case economy.
Perhaps it will only be when unemployment hits several millions and our communities start to implode that a good politician will step forward and the voters will see sense.
Meantime, I fear that the Labour Party will be on the bridge steering us relentlessly towards doom! "We saved the world ...". Are you kidding, Gordon?
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@46 chrisleopard
Are you blind?!! A win for Labour under these circumstances would guarantee the complete destruction of our country. We would all be reeling for far beyond a mere 12 years.
I can only assume you've got a nice fat early pension waiting for you...
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And the world looks just the same
And history ain't changed
'Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
No, no!
I'll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I'll get all my papers and smile at the sky
For I know that the hypnotized never lie
Do ya?
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
There's nothing in the street
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now the parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss
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Nick:
The odd time I read your blog, its always the same angle to try and paint your NU-Lab buddies in a good light even amongst the utter carnage they've created and where ever possible spin a bad light on the Tories.
Well if I was you, I would get the CV ready because it won't only Brown, Mandelson etc who will be out of a job in the next 18 months. You and Peston in doing the bidding of this wretched government, will no doubt have made powerful enemies in the Tory party who will no doubt make a sharp correction to the personnel at the BBC news team. And not before time!
The shame is that Brown will not call an election before June 2010 because he has no chance of winning at all, so will stay to the bitter end. Most of these opinion polls are not really reflecting the carnage that will hit NU-Lab on election day. Such is the national dislike of these liars and crooks that there will be a very high poll turnout which will probably see a record amount of Tory MPs elected.
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Yes?
The BBC have done a good JOB at putting
the Conservatives up as the "DO NOTHING
NASTY PARTY".
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Nick
The odd time I read your blog, its always the same angle to try and paint your NU-Lab buddies in a good light even amongst the utter carnage they've created and where ever possible spin a bad light on the Tories.
Well if I was you, I would get the CV ready because it won't only Brown, Mandelson and co who will be out of a job in the next 18 months. You and Peston in doing the bidding of this wretched government, will no doubt have made powerful enemies in the Tory party who will no doubt make a sharp correction to the personnel at the BBC news team. And not before time!
The shame is that Brown will not call an election before June 2010 because he has no chance of winning at all, so will stay to the bitter end. Most of these opinion polls are not really reflecting the carnage that will hit NU-Lab on election day. Such is the national dislike of these liars and crooks that there will be a very high poll turnout which will probably see a record amount of Tory MPs elected.
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73. The problem they have is that the public sector is so big that it's employees make up a significant chunk of the electorate. Standing on a platform of well publicised cuts, even if it's just the penpushers who'll be cut, would be suicidal. Their strategy was to say little about it now and then when in government start to cull the quangos and seeks cuts in admin and red tape. Now they need to find a different way, I'm sure they know what they'll do but there's no point going public because if it's good, Brown will just copy it.
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One other thought.
If there's an election early in 2009 and Labour were returned, they'd presumably have another bite at the Budget in the spring, and they wouldn't necesarily feel obliged to do everything they promised in the Autum Statement, as the election would be nicely out of the way and there would be no pressure. They could manage the crisis exactly as they saw fit...
VAT for example, could perhaps go to 25% on 1/1/2010. That wouldn't surprise me in the least if we'd had the election, and I might even agree it was sensible, given the size of the national debt and the impact on the pound...
There are definite advantages for them (Labour, not us the electorate) being re-elected early on the back of this Brown bounce. They'll have a lot more room to manoeuvre, and many more levers to pull once the election is done and dusted...
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After a DECADE plus of TITANIC ECONOMIC
POLICIES by GORDY.
ICEBERG i see NO ICEBERG;" The
fundamentals of our ECONOMY ARE
SOUND!!"
Whatever Mr Robinson?
How much cash are you giving??
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And yet again, if they were, Vince Cable just put another shot through their hull. Per Hansard (1748 Monday):
Dr. Cable: Before I move on to deal with the big economic issues, I want to say a little about one aspect of pensions. One thing the Government need like a hole in the head is another administrative disaster like the loss of computer discs, but I am afraid that they have one with public sector pensions. I was rung up 10 days ago by a journalist from Radio Ulster about a story that she had picked up regarding a company called Xafinity Paymaster, which pays out public sector pensions to former members of the armed services and the national health service, among others. She understood that this company had been paying out excessive public pensions, probably to hundreds of thousands of public sector pensioners, and that this error had just been discovered, and that the company was about to start retrieving the money from the pensioners. I made inquiries of the Government, and last Thursday had the courtesy of a telephone call from the head of the civil service, who confirmed that this problem had arisen. He asked me not to publicise it for several days in order to give the Government the opportunity to inform the pensioners personally of their difficulties?I think that I have now abided by that. He said that tomorrow, a written statement would be made that would explain the background to the problem.
As the House does not have the opportunity to respond to a written statement, I thought that it would be more useful to mention the subject this afternoon and to pose the obvious questions, to which I hope that the Minister who concludes the debate can reply. How many people are we talking about? How much money is involved? What steps will be taken to retrieve the overpayments? I understand that in some cases those overpayments go back decades, and are potentially enormous. I do not know the answer to those questions, and I hope that the Government will clarify them. I hope that none of us will face the possibility that large numbers of ex-servicemen will suddenly be faced with bailiffs turning up and asking them to repay overpayments, as we have already seen in the appalling instances involving tax credits. I simply ask for a proper explanation of what has happened.
Mr. Darling: I half expected the hon. Gentleman to intervene earlier. There will be a statement tomorrow, but I want to clarify one of the points that he made. He was asking about repayment of money that has been wrongly paid. I think it would be better if I made it clear that that will not happen. It will be necessary to adjust what is paid in the future, but the Government recognise that there have been such payments for a long time. I would not want people to think that we will start clawing back money that has been paid erroneously. Things need to be put right from next year, and there will be a statement tomorrow by the Cabinet Office.
Dr. Cable: I thank the Chancellor for that clarification. I am not sure about the reference to adjusting what will be paid in the future, because that could mean returning to the normal arrangements or it could mean a clawback. We will no doubt receive clarification on that.
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Interesting analysis.
When Brown was bottom of the pops he said (and Ill quote here) What I want to do is show people the vision that we have for the future of this country in housing and health and education and I want the chance, in the next phase of my premiership, to develop and show people the policies that are going to make a huge difference and show the change in the country itself.
But now someone thinks that he might be top of the pops (doubtful me thinks) I hear that there might be an election.
Well if he does call one then we will then know for sure why he called of the last one wont we.
BRING IT ON
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Mr Robinson,
I know many people on this blog call you by your first name, but really, as a professional reporter, even as a biased one, on your blog you should call your hero at least Brown or otherwise Gordon Brown, Mr Brown or Prime Minister Brown.
Of course Labour will try and seem the best of friends with Obama, but in addition to the inconsistency that Brown in this case wants to team up with a novice, there are more salient points to make:
-The US policy to pile debt on overindebted consumers, here car loans and credit cards, has very limited chance of success.
-The monetary base in the US is expanding very rapidly already, hence with even bigger budget deficits than now the US seem to be setting themselves up for hyperinflation following the trough.
-In the US a 10% consumer retrenchment will result in a 5% to 6% drop in GDP (as consumption accounts for 60% of GDP). A stimulus will not be able to offset this shock although it could prevent the worst of the worst outcome, but with hyperinflation in a few years looming.
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Mr Robinson, maybe you can ask your hero (Mr Brown for me) why the US are not as much in a pickle as the UK is. Could that perhaps be because US consumers were not spending all their disposable income but still managed to save a mere 2%/3% of it recently and because US money center banks had far stronger balance sheets at the end of 2006 than UK clearing banks?
PS: Still waiting for the answer to the question why Brown ran a budget deificit when the economy was groing above trend
And a free history lesson: 1956: UK debt to GDP ratio 146%, Swiss debt/GDP 58%, since 1956 UK inflation has totalled 1700% compared to 330% in Switzerland. 12.2 Swiss francs to the pound in 1956, 1.76 now.
Happy to live outside the UK although I might get a call from your ambassador!
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74#
He's not blind, he's one of the Rebuttal Squad. Professional wind-up merchants, trolls, astroturfers, spinners, oxygen theives... call them what you will. All adds up to the same thing.
Expect CEH, Balhamu, RantingGAD, et al coming along any minute now.
Nobody, but nobody, unless they were being handsomely rewarded for it would vote for another 12 years of this guff.
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Please do not get my hopes up. I saw Go-Don in Afghanistan on the news what a pathetic figure he cut definitely no Gordon Pasha.
Who says there will be an election? The way these people think it would not surprise me if they told us that for our own good it would be better if they put the election of until these times of crisis were over. After all they know best what we need they have not been aligned to the communist party for all these years for nothing. Don't forget Go-Don has already laid out his five and ten year plans how he's even legislating for 2050 how bl@@?Y arrogant. he cannot meet his short term goals on emissions but he will hold future governments to task to make them do what he can't.
Gormless will not go anytime soon as there is nothing for him to do once he's gone. would you give him a job running your finances? I think not heaven forbid that he should get a seat in the Lords don't let him in Dave.
Sorry people but the last voting day in June 2010 is when Gravity McCavity we be of if there is another election.
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If Brown does let this talk of elections spin out of control I would have thought he would have to go for it whatever his thoughts or lose support.
The Tories and Lib Dems must know that Labour are getting away with murder in terms of whether Brown "saved the world" - or helped to ruin it. The Labour record has so many open goals (Iraq, 10p etc). So in an election that would get highlighted and must be worth 5-10%.
The Tories should do an electoral pact with the Lib Dems as then their victory would be assured. The Lib Dems are not natural Tory allies but when you have Labour shamelessly exploiting the public ignorance of their responsibilities for the economic crisis (and previous crisies) perhaps they could be persuaded.
Then we would be rid of cosmetic policy-making and spin.
Fools gold Labour.
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If all else fails, I'm going to nip around to Alexander Curzon's place and smoke whatever he smokes ....
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Predicted politics, Hmmmm!
Is young Dave up to the challenge? does he have the bottle to lay his bare plans before the electorate? me thinks not!
OTTH, the labour party are comfortable with their direction and of course election are there to be won and lost.
I sense a growing sense of unity and strength and the mettle of the British people will unite under the banner, that it's better to do something.
People count! all people count!
If democracy speaks! then let it say! that labour are the only party with a peoples plan.
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I think December's retail sales figures will be important in any decision to go to the country in February 2009.
If they are up on Dec 2007, it can be claimed that the reduction in VAT has worked and provided a fiscal stimulus to the economy. However if they are down, then the game is up.
Its a dangerous gamble though, a foot of snow on the day and will the labour voters in marginal constituencies turn out as much as they would on a nice Spring day.
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Ref:
First, things can only get worse. After all, the chancellor and Tessa Jowell let the cat out of the bag yesterday when they said the recession would be deeper here than elsewhere.
Have you been authorised to say that, isnt the official line still that the UK is best positioned to wheather the global crisis.
Wait till Mandlseson gets hold of you... you little turncoat.
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#71:
A lone silly voice amongst a sea of reason. People want a change not a stagnant, backward looking helping of more of the same.
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I think it would be a mistake for any PM to think current conditions will guarentee them victory.
Though I do think there may be a case of going now, losing and letting the next guy take the blame.
However, surely a PM never wants to leave No. 10?
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It has been clear since Mandelson and Campbell regained control of the news agenda, and hence the timetable, that Brown was amenable to an early election. So far, the government's response to the recession has been entirely political, not what is in the best interests of the UK economy.
There is no doubt that every week next year will bring more and more job losses, and with each lost job, a diminishing prospect of success in a General Election for the Labour Party. Add to that the fact that the Tories are at their weakest for some time, without a clear set of policies or a strategic framework for dealing with the current crisis, and I think if Brown wants a chance to win, he has to go quickly.
I suspect he will ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament the week after they return from the holiday recess, and aim for a poll in mid February. They will be calculating that since Glenrothes, the risks of big losses in Scotland have significantly diminished and when it comes down to it, a pact with the LibDems will see them back in government.
It is politically the right thing to do.
For the population of the UK, however, it will be utterly disastrous.
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#60 and others
Re: proportional representation and those that have mentioned hung a parliament.
I've posted this before on a previous blog.
A hung Parliament is not the answer. Apart from it probably taking weeks to form a government, it would simply give power to a minority party (most probably the Lib Dems, although one or more of the NI parties could make a difference), as they will be able to dictate to whoever they make a coalition with...i.e. do what we say or we'll force an election!
Proportional representation is basically the same...the last election in this country at which one party won more that 50% of the vote (needed for a majority in PR) was in 1931!!! Hardly a good indication for the future! So we'd continually end up with a coalition and the minority party/parties basically in charge. Hardly democracy!
As has been seen in europe, both produce weak governments and regular elections (sometimes multiple ones in a year). As much as it pains me to say, I'd rather have a strong Labour government than a weak coalition.
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Unless there is another cataclysmic event I cannot see a General Election being called before June 2009.
I still believe October 2009 and March 2010 are the best alternatives open to Labour.
What LHQ will balance will be the effects of global recession against the impact of the measures they have put in place.The core electorate are not politically minded,nor are they economically intuitive other than in their purses or wallets.
The key indicators will be very closely scrutinised e.g the electorate will be oblivious to the economic factors behind 2% inflation or lower,2% base rates or lower,3.5% svr mortgage rates or lower - all those figures are attainable and can be "spun" to the electorate to look good.If a cap can be kept on unemployment - below 2.5m and on reposessions - below 1992 level that too can be spun as (a) not as bad as the early 80's and 90's and also (b) crucially not as bad as doomsday Dave has said.....ITS ALL ABOUT POLITICS....an election - the real world and real world economics are a side show...
Politically - Brown has stewardship of G20 - and providing he is still seen as an asset then yes Obhama will be used,as will Sarkozhy and Bruni....
other factors to consider.....the PBR crucially focussed on AB voters,low earners,families with children,OAP's - all benefitted from (a) index linked inflation in September of 5.5% giving them propoertionately a real time increase as inflation falls - real increases and additional benefits being paid and also those benefits being paid from January and NOT April....
Crucially - too - and politically...lets consider one other possible own goal to benefit the Labour Party....Council Tax...
In those KEY marginals in the Midlands and the North West - the c-change since 2005 and 2001 is that local Authorities are now Conservative controlled or Conservative run with NOC....one of the few policy commitments from CHQ and Cameron has been a council tax freeze if the Council increases annual council tax by 2% OR LESS....
WITH A SPECTRE OF INFLATION IN aPRIL BEING AROUND 2 TO 2.5% - and bearing in mind Camerons pledge - and with a CUT in central Government funding - woe betide any local authority that increases Council Tax by say 3% OR MORE....especially if they are Conservative run in a marginal....Mandy will have a field day....
And if they cut council tax increase below 2% BUT Cut services - espcecially Social Services or services to Old and Young....again a field day for Mandy and the Spin doctors....
So - I have a hunch for June 09....if the inflation/base rate/standard variable mortgage rate/unemployment/reposession stats look as outlined and crucially if the Council Tax comes in to play...
These are merely my political thoughts....I'm not advocating this - not backing this - but if I was a political spinner - targetting the 50 or so marginals that will DECIDE the next General Election....thats precisely what I would be focussing on - and Brown may just have the window he is looking for - at this time!
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We all know that Gordon Brown was desperate to take over from Tony Blair, he saw it as his right.
He did not dream of the job as a noble cause to right wrongs and serve the United Kingdom, he saw it as his reward.
As he struts the world stage his thoughts are not on the welfare of us all but the boosting of his reputation. You can see the workings of his mind as clearly as if they were writ large on his forehead ''The Tories must be hating this''
His non answers in Parliament and in interviews betray the man for what he is. He and his Cabinet of Westminster Village groupies are doing all they can to cling to power at any cost. No freedom is too precious and no principle too great to be sacrificed at the altars of spin and gerrymandering.
The last thing the country/economy/business/banking needs now is an election.
To call one because you think it might be winnable before the brown stuff really hits the fan, is to put the country at further risk for ones own sociopathic political gain.
To rattle the sabre and use the BBC to test the water (take a bow Nick) is even worse.
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Remember what Brown wrote in the Evening Standard in 1992, those days when the opposition were still allowed to comment on the currency and when the opposition said the government should not complain about commentary made abroad:
"It's no good the Government blaming a referendum campaign in France or a whispering campaign in Germany for the crisis of the last fortnight. People will ask why it is that when there are problems in Germany it is the pound that is hit, why when the French go to the polls it is the pound that comes under pressure, and why when the Bundesbank leaks, it is the pound that the speculators target. The reason is that a weak currency arises from a weak economy which in turn is the result of a weak Government. A Government unwilling to introduce an industry strategy and unwilling to take the measures necessary to bring us out of recession will leave our economy, and our currency, weak."
PS: Sterling by now has fallen to levels below those in 1992. How flash is that? Expecting your ambassador any second now!
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Another giveaway budget in April , troops home from Iraq, claims of having beaten the recession , then an election in late May or early June, hopefully when some of the perceived Tory voters might be lulled into a false sense of security. If the polls are awfully bad however, he will show his yellow streak again and try to hang on for another year.
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The whole point of a spring election is to save as many seats as they can while their polls look not too bad.
If they leave it any longer everything will have gone completely pearshaped and their so called fiscal stimulus will be seen for what it is.
A complete sham.
After that it would be a complete wipe out.
Who really thinks labour have the urge to win? They don't have the stomach to face up to the monster they will have created.
That's always the job of the Tories.
Is and always has been.
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#82
People may compare this fiasco with the overpayment of tax credits to working people and the subsequent 'clawing back' of the money.
On Radio 5 this morning a government spokeswoman stated that the Government had asked for the money back but if the money was not repaid then there was nothing they could do!
How many people have been put through torture trying to pay back the money that they innocently thought was their due - needlessly!
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Bown is probably spending more time working out when the next election will be than anything else.
I would put money on the fact that he has even had civil servants looking into what grounds he can use to extend the term of goverment.
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I hope they hurry up and decide if an election is going ahead. The way the pound is going, we soon won't be able to afford to vote!
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I think he is frightend to call an election lets face it he has never been elected not even by his own party to be Prime minister totally undemocratic.The British will not forget this so the votes will go elsewhere and not to the Labour party and it serves them right.
Anywhere else in the world what the Labour party have done would be called a dictatorship.
PLEASE go for it Gordon but you wont until the end will you.
2010 it is then get use to it.#
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How will the BBC spin this one? Mandelson already told you, Mr Robinson?
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Gordon Brown?s sales tax cut, which was intended to bolster the economy against recession, imposes an administrative cost on Britain?s small businesses, trade associations said.
?Eighty percent of our members said the costs involved would outweigh the benefits,? David Frost, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, told Parliament?s committee for business and enterprise.
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Another one for spin class (making an election call on 24 Dec for Jan/Feb distinctly possible):
Public sector pension 'hole' soars to £915bn
Published Date: 15 December 2008
By HAMISH MACDONELL
GOLD-PLATED public-sector pension schemes have run up liabilities of nearly £1 trillion, which beleaguered private sector workers will have to pay for, the UK's leading business organisation warns today.
The Confederation of British Industry claims that the cost to the taxpayer of unfunded public-sector pensions has ballooned to a massive £915 billion and is now unsustainable.
The figure is more than 80 per cent of the UK's GDP
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75#
Amen to that! The BBC's copyright police'll probably snaffle it before long though.
As an alternative, which I saw on Peston's blog this morning....
Then the roads jam up with credit
And theres nothing you can do
They're all just bits of paper
flying away from you
Oh come on world, take a good look
At what goes down here
You must learn this lesson fast
And learn it well
This aint no upwardly mobile freeway
Oh No
This is the road
I said this is the road
To Hell
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Well, maybe it is true and maybe it isn't. Either way the fact that NuLabour seem to have reduced the Conservative's lead to 1% despite the sickening chicanery, treble standards and infantile inability of Brown and his Ministers to tell the truth or admit even the teensiest weensiest error frankly beggars belief. How gullible the public seem to be generally, and how they can still purport to admire the finery of King Brown who has no clothes.
The unpalatable truth can only be that a large part of the voting public seem to be too stupid to be enfranchised. The de-intellectualisation of the voting public (to the extent that it was in general ever intellectualised!) is without doubt a result of tabloid journalism (and the increasing tabloidisation of elements of the hitherto more serious press), the complete abandonment of the Reithian approach to Public Service Broadcasting, Reality TV, the pursuit of fame and celebrity, obsession with so called Political Correctness (someone who actually calls a spade a spade and expresses an opinion which conflicts with the received PC viewpoint is pursued as if he or she were a paedophile !), the cult of instant gratification, the rapidly increasing secularisation of the Nation and the absence of any semblance of common decency and honour (epitomised by Government Ministers, particularly Brown, Jacqui Smith, the Speaker et al). This is all hugely depressing. One senses that unless this descent into National mediocrity and boorishness is arrested by a reality check of true honest Conservatism, which champions the family, civic responsibility, honesty and respect and, yes, our Christian heritage, then we shall become a leper of Nations. A "Chav" State on an island somewhere off the European mainland. We are well on our way. It is no exaggeration to say that we are really on the cusp of such a headlong descent. Perhaps we shall get the Government we deserve !!! For goodness skae, PLEASE lets get rid of this awful Government and their sickening chicanery, treble standards and infantile inability to tell the truth.
Maybe Mr Robinson, you could perhaps do your job and take this Government to task and give us some serious reporting, undiluted with personal opinions.
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#99 Hung him with his own rope there, thanks for bringing that up!
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109....
what you espouse is Thatcherism
NO THANK YOU!
An Unmitigated and awful disaster from which many - though not all - of todays ills can be factually and undoubtedly correlated!
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I think there's little chance of one in 2009 while the recession is getting worse, and little chance of Brown allowing too much speculation after last time.
When Cameron wins in 2010, as someone who does not live in Witney, Cameron's constituency, should I keep whinging that I didn't elect Cameron as PM at the end of all my posts?
Or would that just make me a goblin?
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As Christmas day is a Thursday how about calling a snap election for Christmas day.
After all if we dont have a long lead in then it will not cost very much and im sure that we could publish candidate list in the 8 days before xmas.
And an election would be the best xmas present i can think of
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Dear Nick
Browns Bottled it thats why, hes lost the plot and driven the uk into massive debt, MASSIVE debt, the labour party are History.
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An early election could well prove disastrous for the tories. It now seems inevitable that they will win any election regardless of the timing.
If the tories were to come to government in January, they would be left to govern over the continuing decline of the economy and need to make many unpopular decisions to get things back on track.
A few years down the line, the electorate would forget the reason for these decisions and focus on the hardships they will have experienced under a tory government, leading to another few terms under labour until they make a mess of things again and the cycle starts all over again...
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No 109 well said indeed
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No.111
If Thatcherism means an ideology that champions the family, encourages civic responsibility, honesty and respect and, yes, honours our Christian heritage, then yes thats what I mean.
As to your final paragraph; enough said. I rest my case !
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USD has fallen 10% against euro in a week -a precursor to Obamanomics?
Jim Rogers, the famous investor and ex-partner of Soros (that guy that made Brown's day back in 1992), has just said he sees the USD as a fundamentally flawed currency.
I have to leave my desk now - would be a pity if your ambassador turns up in the meantime. Cheeriu
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109#
Hit the nail on the head.
However, this probably IS the Government that we deserve, more sickeningly.
This is where voter apathy gets you.
Only problem is, who is going to undo it?
Are enough of the public intellectual enough to DEMAND of their political reprasentatives that we are led by those values? I would venture almost certainly not. Politicians dont engage with the public any more except in key marginals. In the last 2 elections, in safe seats, I have not seen a single party worker or candidate saying why I should vote for them, or answering any of the questions I have. With one exception (UKIP, of all people) and his case was fairly easily demolished. None of them want to listen to what youve got to say. They only give a stuff about themselves.
ALL politicians now are only concerned about life in 5 year chunks. Nobody has got the guts to make the long term think the unthinkable decisions. Thats how the public sector pension problem has got as bad as it has. Maggie ignored it, Major ignored it, Blair ignored it... Brown just magnified it.
I have beleived for the last 5 years that the pendulum has swung so away from the values you mention that it is going to take an equally violent correction back the other way before we can find any real equilibrium.
Which means before it gets back to what it should be, that the far right will have a far bigger say in British politics since the 1930s. The BNP may not have any parliamentary seats yet, but you watch. IIRC, they're the 4th largest in London; I seriously think that if we have a hung parliament in the next 10 years, the balance of power is likely to be held by the BNP.
And between them, the main parties and the dumbed down, celebrity obsessed electorate are in denial and blissful ignorance respectively.
Time to leave them to it, methinks.
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where all the Tory-boys moaning and wailing about Nick being a Labour mouth piece.
You are all pretty quiet all of a sudden.
Could it be that you only moan about bias if it is something you do want to hear?
Pathetic.
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You give us a picture of two browns one more honest than the other?
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117...
Cecil Parkinson
Keith Best
Jonathon Aitken
Neil Hamilton
The Belgrano
Support for Apartheid
selling the states assets on the cheap
Record Reposessions
Black Monday
Black Wednesday
Police beating Miners with Truncheons
Poll Tax Riots
NHS collapsing through lack of funds
No investment in infrastructure
5 million unemployed
North Sea Oil receipts wasted
Families broken up,the Church of England and Methodism ostrasised as they id'nt appluad the Thatcherite doctrine,No such thing as Society....Despair/Depression....
Things may be bad now....we will never again see the moral and ethical bankruptcy that was Thatcherism......
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Nick- The odd time I read your blog, its always the same angle to try and paint your NULab buddies in a good light even amongst the utter carnage they've created and where ever possible spin a bad light on the Tories.
Well if I was you, I would get the CV ready because it won't be only Brown, Mandelson and co who will be out of a job in the next 18 months. You and Peston in doing the bidding of this wretched government, will no doubt have made powerful enemies in the Tory party who will no doubt make a sharp correction to the personnel at the BBC news team. And not before time!
The shame is that Brown will not call an election before June 2010 because he has no chance of winning at all, so will stay to the bitter end. Most of these opinion polls are not really reflecting the carnage that will hit NULab on election day. Such is the national dislike of these liars and crooks that there will be a very high poll turnout which will probably see a record amount of Tory MPs elected.
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Just hard to get my head around the garbage of a posting from Nick.
Which seems more politically potent:
"Brown may call an election"?
or
"Darling says that the UK will suffer more than other nations during the depression"?
Brown could call an election at any time. He famously failed to do so - probably worried that it would be an everlasting scare should he be thrown out of office after just a few months.
Brown has been saying for months that "The UK is best placed to ride the recession". If his Chancellor is now saying something different, is that because neither of them had any genuine understanding of the real world?
God help us all.
And, in a typical response from this Administration, the terms and conditions for bank loans and guarantees have also been significantly changed.
Did Brown or Darling come to Parliament to explain the change? No. Just slipped it out via a junior Minister.
Any comment about the impact on projected "return on investment"? Not a bit of it.
Why bother telling us plebs (or even opposition MPs) anything of that sort?
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101 Virtual
'Who really thinks labour have the urge to win? They don't have the stomach to face up to the monster they will have created.'
Blimey, these commies get everywhere, but I didn't know they 'will have' created free-market banking, I thought that was the Medicis [they were commies too, beneath the silk and the ermine] a few centuries ago.
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Nick- The odd time I read your blog, its always the same angle to try and paint your NULab buddies in a good light even amongst the utter
carnage they've created and where ever possible spin a bad light on the Tories.
Well if I was you, I would get the CV ready because it won't be only Brown, Mandelson and co who will be out of a job in the next 18
months. You and Peston in doing the bidding of this wretched government, will no doubt have made powerful enemies in the Tory party who
will no doubt make a sharp correction to the personnel at the BBC news team. And not before time!
The shame is that Brown will not call an election before June 2010 because he has no chance of winning at all, so will stay to the bitter
end. Most of these opinion polls are not really reflecting the carnage that will hit NULab on election day. Such is the national dislike of
these liars and crooks that there will be a very high poll turnout which will probably see a record amount of Tory MPs elected.
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Balhamu
Will your lords and masters still be paying you to post when they are no longer in power then?!
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Can someone please remind me who actually got rid of Thatcher???
Her own Party in a vain attempt to ensure it was not destroyed for ever by the electorate on the back of the highest level of political incompetence ever seen in this Country...
so dont blame anyone else for Thatcher but the Conservative Party....
They created the Monster....they killed the Monster....and thats just where the creed should stay...DEAD!
AND PLEASE DONT EVER equate Thatcher to Christianity...the CHURCH DOES'NT!
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just forgot to cram in that conservatives hopefuls will really need to make an effort getting the vote out because labour is buying the votes of public sector employees and all the people on benefits (tax credits by another name) and labour needs fewer votes per seat in its strongholds than the conservatives
Mr Cameron has his work cut out and faces more hurdles than biased BBC reporting
Don't forget, I'm outside the UK without British passport, awainting that ambassador of yours for 9 hours of interrogation!
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Balhamu
Rightly or wrongly, regardless of the fact that a PM is not elected by the electorate, he or she is democratically elected by their own party (well, unless you're Gordon, in which case you come charging in unopposed, pushing everyone else out of the way), that is the way that the great unwashed educated masses see it.
The leader of the party is the PM elect that they vote for. A vote for the constituency MP of whatever political flavour they want is by default an endorsement or otherwise of the values, policies, visions etc that the leader of the party has set out in the manifesto.
Thats why it is the way it is. I know its factually incorrect, but its that simple.
And you are politically aware enough to know that too. So, why am I wasting my time telling you that?
Because its the only way through sometimes. Break things down into nibble sized peices that cant be denied and vomited straight back out by party dogma.
Gordon has never set out any vision for anything apart from becoming PM. Certainly not to the public. They see that they did not elect him. They elected Blair, in preference to Michael Howard (fair enough, on balance).
It is becoming more and more transparent that whatever Brown's vision is (likely to be to cling onto power, like driftwood for as long as possible) it is not what the public voted for.
He is not a leader, he is nomenklatura, self promoted way above his abilities.
So, until he DOES seek an electoral mandate for this madness of his from the public, I think we reserve the right to remind the likes of you, Dud, Derek et al, that we didnt vote for him. Why didnt Blair stand down earlier? Why didnt Brown get the top job in the first place? Because he was known from day 1 to be an electoral liability, in the same way Michael Foot was. Doesnt make him any less capable a politician, but the public dont vote for the politician, they vote for the personality.
Unfortunately for GB, you cant polish faeces.
Bad, I know, but you could always educate the public, show them the error of their ways...
And as for Witney... maybe you should move there. Heaven forbid, you might like it.
Apart from the Eton toff who happens to be the local MP, but you cant have everything, can you?
I wonder if the people of Coventry NW thought about that before they elected a Cambridge educated toff? Or Sedgefield perhaps, before they elected a toff public schoolboy? And better not comment on Derry Irvine or Charlie Falconer, eh??
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Gordon will not go for an election in the winter; this one is shaping up to be a cold one (in more ways than one) with the coldest start in 30 years. There is always a problem getting out the vote in Labour's traditional heartlands in the north of England and Scotland in winter, even more so when there is snow on the ground! By late spring / early summer, the full extent of the economic horror that faces this country will have been revealed, and it will be far too late for him to chance an election then.
By wavering in the autumn of last year Gordon has painted himself into a corner, and for better or worse, we will have to wait until 2010 before we can have a say on his stewardship of this country.
Remember, Nick, you heard it here first!
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I'm glad there are some murmurings about the flaws in our constituency based democracy.
Let's suppose there is a large turnout at the next election and we get something like Con (40%) Lab (35%) Lib Dems (17%). We could have the situation where the Tories have gained at least 2 million more votes than Labour but not only end up without a majority but aren't even the biggest party. That would surely prompt a massive debate about whether we can carry on with the current system.
PS: Kudos to Pot_Kettle for the Who reference.
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Nick, the expression that is of particular interest is 'announce some good plans.' Yes that is what Gordon and his merry bunch are so good at, but delivery has been this governments problem right the way through. You and the BBC are very robust in your interviewing of the Tories, but lack impartiality when faced with any of your labour luvies. You keep reiterating the negative verbals that are put out by Gordon, Mandleson, no doubt aided by Charlie Whelan.
Perhaps the BBC could rerun of Gordon and Charlie Whelan pulling a fast one on the Bank of England when they had just come into power, it was last shown in the middle of the night a year ago. Lets see what the intelligent public do when given the opportunity. So far Labour have hardly been democratic, remember the NO vote on the north east regional assemley???? Add to that the lack of the promised vote on the EU constitution. I am entitled to my personal views, but BBC reporters are supposed to give a balanced view.
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Thank you Saint Nick.
You've just delivered the best Xmas present ever - HOPE. Hope that change might be on the horizon and New Labour will be a thing of the past. Unfortunately, with hope comes despair and GB wouldn't call an election unless he was sure he/Labour had a strong chance of winning. If he does call one he must know something that we don't. What a nightmare if Labour do get in and we have to put up with 5 more years of incompetence and useless initiatives. Another year of the same is bad enough.
Merry Xmas xx
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122#
Geoffrey Robinson
Peter Mandelson
Peter Hain
Kieth Vaz
ID Cards. Dont work.
NHS Program For IT. Doesnt work.
Peter Mandelson again.
Lord Cashpoint.
A Serving Prime Minister being questioned by the police under caution
John Prescott playing Croquet at Chequers
John Prescott punching a voter.
John "2 Jags" Prescott, being given a lift over 100 yds
1 million people on the streets against Iraq war, promptly ignored.
42 Days
Attempts to abolish trial by jury
Attempts to stifle legal representation by families bereaved in Iraq/Afghan at Coroners courts.
Dodgy dossier from a student thesis
Bernie Ecclestone and F1 donations
Cash For Honours
Police beating up anti capitalists
Police shooting dead innocent Brazilian electricians on tube trains.
Politicized treasury.
Exponential growth in Quangos.
1Bn wasted on the dome.
Volunteering our troops for 4 wars that have nothing to do with us
Selling off half the gold reserves at a record low
Complete abject failure of financial sector regulation
Losing track of the 7/7 bombers
Stealth taxes
Fines for not having your bin lid shut.
Complicity in extraordinary rendition.
The John Lewis List and a speaker who will do anything to avoid taking responsibility
Appointing a Parliamentary Standards Officer then firing her when she got too close to the truth.
Cutting the defence budget in real terms - Nimrod, 14 Dead. Hercules 10 Dead.
Completely failing to overhaul defence procurement.
Home Office declared not fit for purpose by its own Minister Of State.
Striking Firemen
Police who wanted to strike, then when politicised, arrest an opposition MP for recieving leaked documents.
SFO Bribery case halted by the PM.
Spin.
Lord Mandelson AGAIN
The Hindujas
Oleg Deripaska's yacht.
Education, Education, Education. Kids going to uni still cant spell
Proliferation of faith schools
Tough On Crime, Tough On The Causes Of crime.... Unless its kids stabbing each other on sink estates in South London.
Jacqui Smith
You wanna keep this up???
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No. 128. At 3:29pm on 16 Dec 2008, greatandydudley wrote:
"AND PLEASE DONT EVER equate Thatcher to Christianity...the CHURCH DOES'NT! "
Well thats odd, because "greatandydudley", because you did by responding to my blog by saying:-
"what you espouse is Thatcherism
NO THANK YOU! "
Never mind.
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Pet Dragon:
You've gone quiet.
Not your turn on the only internet PC in the office yet then? Or has Derek got you on the tea run?
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I guess one bonus of a spring election is that, if you beleive our troops will be leaving Iraq early next year, we will be able to have a comprehensive inquiry in the whole debacle. With all the main suspects no longer in official posts, we may even be able to get some answers and some redress.
Think about that Gordon
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112 Balhamu
No That would make you a minority
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There won't be a general election in the next year because there's too much to do.
I understand the media frenzy because it helps to sell news. Moreover, political correspondents rise up the pecking order when elections are in the offing.
THe Obama factor will still be here 18 months from now. Possibly even stronger.
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#122
Now, I'm not a frequent poster on these sites. I am not a 'tory' either (I remember my parents struggling in the 80s), but I did buy in to the hope that labour offered in 97 and felt very disillusioned soon afterwards. However, in the interests of balance I thought I'd draw up my own list of labour 'achievements':
Alistair campbell
john prescott
mandy
blair (questioned by police!)
the speaker
dr kelly
ecclestone
support for illegal war in iraq
selling state assets on the cheap (gold etc)
record repo's - coming soon
run on a bank
credit crunch
cash for honours
unaffordable housing
1m anti-war protesters in london ignored by govt
10p tax
pensions black hole
spin
lies, damned lies and govt statistics
I think that its about time people realised that it is not about left or right, capitalism or socialism. What is fundamentally wrong with life in britain today is that people are increasingly selfish and dont seek to achieve excellence anymore. People just seem to want money for nothing and managers don't know how to manage properly. This is why working life in britain is about box ticking and nothing else and everyone is unhappy when things inevitably go wrong. Sadly, imho it doesn't matter if the tories or labour get in - no politician of any creed seems to have a clue and things will just carry on spiralling out of control regardless.....
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#135 fubar re my #141
hats off to you!
you were much quicker than me to the draw - besides your list is much better than mine!!
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aa
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hmm ...
Ten more years of...
Selling all our gold at 200$ now 839$
Trashing the private sector pension system
Creating one and a half million public sector diversity officers
Invading Iraq on bogus evidence
Fifteen minutes to mass destruction
Twenty four hours to save the health service (and three times the amount of money)
Raising cosutants pay to work shorter hours
The millenium dome
Northern Rock
500bn bailout for the banking sector
The Tripartite regulatory structure
Government bonds more expensive than MacDonalds debt
The 10p tax fiasco
42 day detention fiasco
25 million lost documents
A frozen defence budget with more troop committed since the second world war in a conflict that has lasted longer than the second world war
Spin
Hubris
Not a single power station commissioned
Not a single infrasturcture project commissioned
Biggest fall in the pound for forty years
biggest public sector deficit on record
Biggest budget deficit on record
Biggest rise on knife crime on record
One and a half million on incapacity benefits
No referendum on the EU constitution
Rover bust
Unemployement rising to two million again
Bradford and Bingley bust
Allliance and Leicester bust
Arresting of opposition MP without a search warrant
So let them fight the general election on their record.
Call an election.
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haha! Look at all you happy bloggers getting your daily 'lets bash the Government' fix. You should start your own blogs instead of ranting into Nicks. New Labour this, Gordon Brown that, I hope Labour win. Cameron? Prime Minister? hahaha! Seems everyones got a short memory when it comes to the Tories.
Merry Christmas.
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Nick: The odd time I read your blog, its always the same angle to try and paint your NULab buddies in a good light even amongst the utter carnage they've created and where ever possible spin a bad light on the Tories.
Well if I was you, I would get the CV ready because it won't be only Brown, Mandelson and co who will be out of a job in the next 18 months. You and Peston in doing the bidding of this wretched government, will no doubt have made powerful enemies in the Tory party who will no doubt make a sharp correction to the personnel at the BBC news team. And not before time!
The shame is that Brown will not call an election before June 2010 because he has no chance of winning at all, so will stay to the bitter end. Most of these opinion polls are not really reflecting the carnage that will hit NULab on election day. Such is the national dislike of these liars and crooks that there will be a very high poll turnout which will probably see a record amount of Tory MPs elected.
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balhamu @112 wrote:
"When Cameron wins in 2010... "
Thanks for being a realist.
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#138
There must not only be an inquiry into the Iraq war, there must also be an urgent debate in parliament before we send more troops to Afghanistan. There must be a full statement as to what the purpose is of sending our troops there.
There must also be an urgent statement by the prime minister with regard to his comments relating to the part that Pakistan is playing in respect of global terror.
The Prime Minister, by his comments, is drawing attention, not to the issue of religion, but I think that he is playing the race card. There is absolutely no justification for doing this, is he setting the scene for another expansion of the wwar on terror. Forget Iran, it is now Pakistan.
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It's amazing that as we face the worst economic recession in living memory, NuLab and the Beeb blame the Tories!
Far from being the saviour of the world, Brown has made sure the markets have lost all confidence in Stirling.
If Brown is right that his tax-borrow-waste policies have left us better placed than other countries to ride the recession, then why is the Pound continuing to fall against other currencies. Hmmm... let me guess. It must be the tories again!
Come off it Gordon! It's time for you to walk the plank.
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132 Ed2003
"Let's suppose there is a large turnout at the next election and we get something like Con (40%) Lab (35%) Lib Dems (17%). We could have the situation where the Tories have gained at least 2 million more votes than Labour but not only end up without a majority but aren't even the biggest party. That would surely prompt a massive debate about whether we can carry on with the current system."
Let us also assume that the Conservatives have a far larger number of MP's from England than Nulabour with a Scottish MP as Prime Minister. Could they honestly make a case that they have a mandate for policies in England where those policies have been devolved to the Scottish parliament and Welsh Assembly?
At the last election the Tories had more votes cast for them than Labour in England, whatever the end result it will be a massive no confidence vote for Labour by English voters.
Now if the SNP maintain their votes in Scotland all bets will be off as Labour will be denied their Scottish MP's to push through English legislation. In that case labour could well find themselves under represented at Westminster which would be an interesting change in the political history of the UK.
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@ Nick Robinson
Obama is a 'supporter of Gordon's economic policies'.
The rest of you out there in blogland, let's have a poll. Who thinks Obama can even remember who the UK's Prime Minister is?
Seriously, Mr. Robinson, are you on a secret payroll that we don't know about? You seem to imply that Gordon has been tutoring the President-elect in how to do the job he hasn't yet clocked on to do. Do you read what you've written before it gets onto the BBC's site?
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#127 I_despise_anyone_who_disagrees_with_me
Whatever you say mate.
Did Labour pay the 65% of people who voted in the last election that didn't put the cross in Howard's box?
I think you need to understand that not everyone in the country (or even outside this astroturf pitch of a message board) goes with your hardline and partisan Cameron cheerleading/Brown-baiting.
Looking forward to the "re-education" programme for idiots who don't share your superior opinion when "free-speech" right-wingers get elected.
#130 fubar
To summarise - you would acknowledge GB as elected PM if someone (even a no-mark backbencher) had stood against Gordon Brown in the Leadership election?
The key thrust of your argument (i.e. Brown is an elected PM because he was elected as Leader of the largest party in the House of Commons) is the same as mine btw. You just disagree with the choice made by that party - fair enough, but GB is still the democratically elected PM. You can help change that in 2010 if you wish!
And I'm not sure the goblins on this site would agree with you when you correctly state that GB is democratically elected.
re democratic election - wasn't the decision made by potential candidates taking soundings of their likelihood of winning that they stood no chance (Brown was a stick on win) and it would be tactically better for them not to have the humilation of being trounced by the opponent.
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greatandydudley @128
Before you ejaculate another anti-Thatcher rant, you may wish to recall that she won three General Elections and was never defeated.
Just like Blair come to think of it.
As for Gordon Brown.........
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#147 max
I'm ignore opinion polls that suggest it is close.
I'm going with this representative blog.
100+ user names who love Cameron and despise Brown.
5-6 user names who would describe themselves as left-of-centre and consider voting Labour.
That's a 95% share for Cameron and a 5% share for Labour and the Lib Dems. Some landslide.
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#141:
I'd like to add a few more to that:
1. The return to popularity of nose picking in public
2. Blaming The Conservatives for easing up on regulators when they did diddy squat themselves.
3. Blaming The Conservatives for doing nothing about a problem they helped to create.
4. The poor, class obsessed excuse for an election candidate in Nantwich and Crewe.
5. The tale telling in relation to Damian Green.
6. The failure to equip our troops properly in Iraq.
7. The utter waste of millions of pounds worth of taxpayer's revenue.
8. The return to fashion of 'white lies'.
9. The cynical spinning of knife crime figures.
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#153 Max
Where was the democracy in Thatcher being forced to stand down by a shadowy mob?
She should have called an election to save the poll tax!
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Sorry Tories, but whenever the election comes, you cannot hope to win with your two current boy wonders against Brown and Darling.
The electorate rightly fear that Eton and Collpase represent, like many of you out there in DailyMailWorld it seems, the view that it would be preferable to see several millions of them unemployed and repossessed, just because to suggest, God forbid, state intervention as a policy, would be against the Tory ideology that markets must be obeyed, an ideology some still cling to in defiance of all evidence from their own City whizzkid chums [from whom your leader is only now trying in to distance himself, timing not his strong point, is it?].
But, if it makes you happy to think that you can get rid of Gordon, keep on wishing that the election comes soon. If you get your desire, you'll get to leave the country that bit sooner.
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The one thing that really worries me is that I just can't see Brown calling an election unless his hand is forced. Look at the man.
Brown is a victim of circumstance. He has always been a victim of events rather than shaping them. You only have to look at the manner in which he became PM to see that.
The only way he's calling an election now is if this is undoubtedly his best chance.
The only way he knows that, is if he knows things are going to get worse. A lot worse.
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Balhamu:
Arguably so. Even if it had been a no-mark. Otherwise its not an election or a leadership contest is it? Who to compete against, when there is no competition?
Should he have been a stick-on win though? The whole thing stank of a stitch up... which effectively it was, from the night of the Granita deal.
Wasnt there one ABG (Anyone But Gordon) candidate who was going to stand but then had his horns pulled in by the whips? John O'Donnell, IIRC??
Its partially the choice of Gordon that I disagree with, but more the way it happened to be honest. At no point apart from the electorate of Kircaldy has he had to say "This is what I'm about, this is my vision, not just for the constituency, but for the nation; vote for me".
Now, if he goes for it and he wins, then, the public will have had their chance to have their say on what they think of him and his vision and that will be that. I can and will respect that. I wouldnt like it, I freely admit that... but I'd respect it.
Thats what democracy is meant to be about isnt it?
As it stands at the moment, I'm afraid I only see a man with a monumental ego who is way way way out of his depth.
Note, I'm not advocating Cameron as the preferred choice. He isnt. If Vince Cable became Lib Dem leader again, I'd give it very serious thought.
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great news about an election....the big worry is that people seem to think browns doin a good job in getting the economy back on track
(whats left of it). well brown ,as a labour voter goin, back to the 1970 election, there is no way i would vote for this shower.....the libs are even worse(if thats possible) the tories are the least worst i guess. but i hope people get out and vote and dispatch this appalling government to the dustbin .
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ah Munich:
how many times do we have to flush before you disappear round the U-bend?
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CockedDice @ 52
We are so inured to the binary choice between Labour and the Tories and in this particular case between spend/borrow under Labour or try to get through without adding massively to existing debt for the Tories, that we often forget that there are often other choices.
Not just other political parties but also other economic choices too.
For example, rather than spend/borrow or 'do nothing' there are other possibilities such as committing to greatly shrinking Government taxing and spending, which usually could often be more accurately decribed as Government wasting.
Broadly, if Government taxing and spending shrunk drastically, then economic theory suggests that other actors, i.e. businesses and consumers would spend the money freed up more efficiently.
Political parties, boxed in by their own dogma, do not seem capable of making these sorts of decisions.
Often, suggestions such as this get labelled 'brave' ala Sir Humphrey and promptly forgotten.
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hay#157 im not from the daily mail world im a working class voter who has been stiched up by brown. i woulld vote tory to get him out..and minimise the enormous damage he has done.
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153, 156
Both funnily enough, defeated by being stabbed in the back by their own side rather than at the polls.
One because she was seen as an electoral liability, the second because he made the playground bully wait 10 years for the top job!
What a tangled web we weave....
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Gordon would do anything to get elected. Anything. However ridiculous.
Now that the 20 billion election bribe (AKA the VAT fiscal stimulus) has failed it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Gordon tried to bribe us again in the new year in the hopes he could win a spring election.
In theory there is no money left to bribe us with......although they have just delayed the order of a couple of aircraft carriers..... Does this give Gordon a few billion quid to try and butter us up?
If not Brown's ego will find money from somewhere else. He would hate to remain an unelected PM and will do anything, spend or borrow anything to satiate his pride and ambition.
Whilst we wait for the chance to vote - amuse yourself by seeing how the Treasury have fiddled the figures so that Gordon's boom and bust doesn't look so dire:
Fiddling the figures - again
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Here's the greatest party political broadcast Brown could have:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=6VaP1HB7Vew
YUK!
Guaranteed NO woman in the land will want him back......;)
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Camoron keeps talking up an election because he is a wannabee prime minister and that is all he will ever be. His only concern is his own image, he is out of touch with the average person in the street.
If the Tories had any sense they would elect some one else as leader , they might have half a chance then of getting into government.
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If G. Brown ties his furture to Obama he may very well regret it. Obama's dodgy past is very much catching up with him, and the public dont give a fig about America anyway. Its just you in the media that are obsessed with him.
Furthermore to say Obama and Brown agree on policy is a bit of a stretch. I would appreciate your blogg much more if you concentrated on the main issue which is this country is going to have a far deeper recession than any other country and the reason. Our great leader has got us into massive debt and at last someone in Government has admitted it.
If Brown really is considering an election, the economy must really be much worse than any of us realise as any Government who goes for an election when the country is suffering so badly in recession is likely to be punished very heavily. So bring it on, we need a Conservative Government to pull us through.
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# 141 urban_guerilla
Your summation is excellent.
Whichever party you vote for, be sure that the primary motivation of that party will be to keep big business sweet so that the dosh keeps rolling into party coffers. Ordinary working people will always benefit less from any government than the already well off.
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#!58:
True. Gordon Brown can't really win on The Election Call. If he goes early he will be deemed to be avoiding the impending worsening situation in the economy. If he doesn't he faces the charge of prolonging things as long as he can so that he won't go down in history as one of the shortest serving, incompetent P.M.'s in history. Feel rather sorry for him in certain respects though not much!
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im sure he will manipulate the figures ..to be honest i wish we could get rid of brown half the treasury....the fsa...the bank of england monetary commitee and king.get rid of the lot...because these clowns are the very people that got us in this mess and we are hoping they can get us out of the mess they created.but to me the worry is that people have latched on the idea is ok to borrow borrow borrow....and brown has started this movement
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in my lifetime every pm and every president has been ridiculed...from even churchill and roosevelt..down to brown and bush...give obama 6 months and he will start getting some stick....weve had a decent men as pms. atlee churchill wilson heath compared to this joker brown they were incredible pms.
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Well Mr. Robinson, either you are top of the Tory Party Christmas drinks invitation list or you have a MOLE in their Office;either way you appear to know any enormous amount about the Opposition according to this Blog.
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The Labour taunts on here are becoming ever more desperate and abusive. It's time The Mods stepped in to restore some respectability to this blog.
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# 154 balhamu
It does feel like 95:5 at times LOL.
Never mind, the 95 so frequently expose their own preposterousness, and that evens up the ratio more than a little.
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You have to wonder:
How on earth can you waste GBP81Million on a payroll and personnel management system? Can't even imagine any system of that sort getting close to those numbers.
The mind boggles.
The Department for Transport claims that it will "modernise and improve" the way people and businesses can transport stuff around the country.
They can't manage the introduction of a personnel management IT system?
But they'd be happy to introduce a "road-usage" system?
God forbid!
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# 174 sicilian29
From you that is rich! LOLOL
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161. Come on Fubar, don't be like that.
All you have to do is explain that of course Eton and Collapse will only cut public spending on wasteful areas, they're nice guys who like animals and flowers etc.
The billions and billions they'll save from this painless waste-cutting will be enough to send UK PLC back, if not to the top of the economic league table, well at least to the middle.
Your average person will not notice any of the spending cuts, and all rises in unemployment, repossessions etc. can safely be laid at Gordon's door for the first term.
It's just a pity that few will want to take the risk that the boy wonders will make the correct calls.
So far, we'd have let Northern Rock, HBOS and RBS go to the wall under a Cam-Osbo regime.
Ta-ta British banking industry, and ta-ta to the City of London as a major centre for a very long time. Ta-ta too to much of my own savings, and those of millions of others.
Ta-ta to sterling, ta-ta to social order and cohesion, as millions became instantly skint.
OK, in office, as opposed to in Opposition, they probably would have done exactly what GB and AD have done, in response to the banking crisis. But, why take the risk, when we know that their instincts are to 'let the market decide'?
Earlier in the year, the market had decided that western capitalism was a dead duck.
Fortunately for all of us, however, several world leaders had the courage to abandon their own principles [even Bush] in the autumn and wade in there with taxpayers' loot.
You guys will never credit GB with saving our capitalist society from the banks' blunders, with the proviso that we'll all be paying for its rescue for a good while.
History certainly will, however. Without the arch enemy of DailyMailWorld at the helm, we might all be down the u bend by now.
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Second ever post on these blogs, but have been reading both Robinson's and Peston's blogs for the last 8 months!
I honestly struggle to understand the blind, over-zealous following that some bloggers afford the incumbent government, to the point that it seems they actually believe Gordon Brown walks on water and can do no wrong. Do you really believe he is infallible?
Could those on this blog who support Gordon Brown be kind enough to confirm a few questions for me please?
1. Do they believe that Labour, and specifically, Gordon Brown has done a good job of handling the public finances for the last decade?
2. Where do they stand on the fact that without the exponential increase on public sector jobs, government unemployment figures would make for much worse reporting, with unemployment 40% higher?
3. Is there ANY ACTION of Gordon Brown's in his last 11 years as Chancellor and then PM that they will concede as a fundamental failure to represent the best interests of the British taxpayer?
I have never voted conservative in my life FYI, previously voting Labour and Lib Dem respectively! I myself regret my Labour vote, at a time when my youthful naivety betrayed my better judgment.
I doubt I will ver vote for a Labour government ever again because after seeing first hand what their policies have brought about, I now understand what people must have felt like when Britain went cap in hand to the IMF in the 70's.
Am I delusional to think that the recession of the 90's was actually very well handled by the conservative government of the time and that Kenneth Clarke did a bloody commendable job in righting our precariously positioned economy?
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FuturePMmichael wrote:
haha! Look at all you happy bloggers getting your daily 'lets bash the Government' fix. You should start your own blogs instead of ranting into Nicks. New Labour this, Gordon Brown that, I hope Labour win. Cameron? Prime Minister? hahaha! Seems everyones got a short memory when it comes to the Tories.
Merry Christmas.
You didnt vote on the recent strictly come dancing did you?
Coming from an OLD Labour family base, the simple fact is that Labour have forgotten about how serious it is to listen to the public.
The sorry state we are in rests purly on Gordons shoulders, and if you think that Labour will WIN another election anytime. I think you better sit down on election night!
We have had enough, and we need a change to rid us of this pathetic Govt.
Happy new year!
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#165:
I'm afraid the budget for the new aircraft carriers is only 4 billion. I thought that was a lot of money when I first read about it, but I now realise that in comparison to the general scale of the financial mess this country is in, it's chicken feed.
But the general thrust of your post is hard to argue with. My guess is that they'll create the extra money by printing it. There'll be some half-assed justification along the lines of making corrections to the money supply when inflation starts to go below the target range.
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balhamu @156
I'm no great supporter of the Conservative Party.
Thatcher was brought down by a bunch of wet wimps. 'Shadowy mob' dignifies them.
As for the 'poll tax'. I was - and still am - for it: You pay for what you consume.
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#177:
I'm not abusive. I merely tell the truth.
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I must say I am a huge fan of the idea of drastically reduced taxation, allowing the public to manage their finances the way they see fit!
If you want to save jobs: Abolish Employers NICS completely
If you want people to spend money, you need to put it INTO their pockets directly. The VAT reduction was an almighty failure and there will NEVER be any proof that it worked, because, well, it hasn't!
One thing I believe in is that we do however need basic state run utilities:
Energy
Savings & Loans
Rail Network
Water Supply
These are things we cannot operate as a nation without, so they should not be in the hands of the private sector.
Oh and Public Sector Pensions: Biggest scandal of the last 20 years in my opinion! It needs addressing and FAST, now more than ever!!!
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#175:
What a five though. Derek Barker, yourself, (the absent grandantidote), Munich, and balhamu. Oh and Laughatthetories. A disparate bunch of bloggers some of whom make sense, some of whom quite frankly don't.
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my deconstruction plan is
less governmental interference
less income tax
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Yup. Couldn't be bothered to comment on this storm in a teacup or take any of the negative dreg seriously. The market rewards action so I just tuned it out.
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I believe Clare Short was one of the first to mention that the next GE would see a hung parliament re-turned.
A parliament not attached to colours but a parliament run from the centre right of politics.
Ah, Mandelson did drop nicely into the other place?
Me thinks the times are changing'
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Before Maggie came to power she knew she had to smash the unions before getting the British workforce back to to some kind of productive level even if it meant a lot of nationalsation. This time if Cameron is to get the UK economocally viable again he has to smash the over bloated unproductive public sector, but I am not sure he has the bottle for it. In an attept to buy votes Brown has greatly increased the public sector with excessive civil servants and quangoes etc, and pension scheme completely unfunded, even Vince Cable said on radio today it is unsustainable.
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#135, 141,144-
please no more lists I returned from Japan in 2006 after 9 years out of the country foolishy thinking the UK economy was booming only to soon realise it had been built on a mountain of dept. These lists are are only making my decision more depressing, please no more.
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Personally, I shall be voting BNP, but half of me would like to see these socialist clods left in office to sort out the mess they have made of the country.
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Not the Party of the Rich£$$£$
Yeah right.
So have the Tories dropped their Flag-ship Fiscal Policy i.e to raise the inheritance Tax threshold to £1M, benefiting the really needy top 0.6% richest families in the UK.
Yep not the party of the rich at all.
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Blog Mods etc
Will bloggers with similar views to my own,
Balhamu, CEH,Saga,derek, Munich (welcome) etc PLEASE don't refer/complain about the right wing blogs, no matter how offensive (and plenty are) They need to be read by everyone who visits.
THESE ARE TORY VIEWS AND BELIEFS, THEY NEED TO BE OUTED!
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#185:
It seems a few more are crawling out of the woodwork. The more the merrier.
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With house prices plummeting I can see The Government lowering the IHT threshold to placate their core voters and claw back some of the money they have wasted.
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If the British public are stupid enough to vote for Labour once again after all the lies, heavy taxation, contempt for Parliament (also known as "House of Lords reform" so that it becomes filled with your supporters), ID cards and removal of civil liberties, then this country will become, and deserves to be, a totalitarian dictatorship
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189 Tenmaya
"Smash the Public Sector"
You make "it" sound like an enemy.
So what do you want to smash.
The Police?
The Armed Forces?
The NHS?
The Fire Service?
How about the Eduon Service, those nasty schools with teachers etc?
Although I don't know about the Armed Forces ALL the other pay significant contributions towards a pension so why shouldn't they actually get it??
Wierd how if someone suggests the Cameron et al are the beneficiaries of massive inherited wealth its declared as "the politics of envy" but eeryone feels that a nurse or teacher can be pilloried for having a pension after paying into it for 40 years.
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#193:
Can I make the same plea to the 95. We need to read these comments by left wing bloggers in order to properly rubbish them.
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#193-
The best thing you can do is send in jackboot Jackie and get her to kick them out!!!!
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194/185 Sicilian
You forgot to swith identities mr Sock-puppet
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ER @ 197:
Wow. Never thought I'd say it but as a teacher who had to retire a little early as a result of ill health I entirely agree with you. We paid the contributions, we deserve the benefits. I worked over 37 years for a meagre pension. Noone is going to deny me my due!
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What's swith?
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Look at it this way Labour are in a win win situation with the economy and an election.
If they lose the election, they will blame the Tries for mis-handling the economy and they would have done it better.
If they win they will blame the USofA and everyone else, and that the recession is worse than they thought and nothing to do with them.
In other words they have screwed up, mortgaged Britain to the hilt and are hoping that someone will bail them out.
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# 200:
I don't own a sock puppet (blast from the past). All my toys are either cute little bears, an assortment of little dogs or Disney characters.
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201~
Well you're a common target on here, why noy fight back?
Public Service such as yours appears to be a crime on here.
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Let's scotch this nonsense. The Golem has no balls and won't gamble. He'll cling desperately until 2010. When's he going to go to the country? January or February, in the cleak mid-winter? Not likely. And then in March comes the Budget (the proper budget) and the Golem's streetwalker Darling having to 'fess up to his PBR Budget being hopelessly optimistic when it comes to the forecasts.
And that's armageddon for the Golem - the Labour equivalent of Major's "Black Wednesday". When Darling sits down, the Labour party will be wasted. The country will want them gone, but they'll cling on, with the country becoming more and more hostile to them. And in 2010 the Labour party will be all but wiped out.
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It's not necessary to be so tribal about things.
Take 184 Nataku's post for example.
I could easily have written most of that, though from an earlier post I don't think Nataku and I agree on Brown's performance.
I'm not one of these socialists who wants tax n spend for the sake of it.
I'd like to see much lower basic rate income tax and, with Nataku, the end of NI, as well.
The problem is those things would cost a hell of a lot, as would the renationalisation of all essential services.
It really is a cop out, however, to suggest that the hundreds of billions a year required for ambitious tax cutting goals like those could be funded purely through waste-cutting.
In order to save that much, the govt depts with big budgets (health and education) would need to be pruned big time.
That means poor schools and long waiting lists for NHS treatment.
I personally would prefer to see, along with pay cuts for all public sector workers earning over 100K, a top rate of VAT on luxury goods like electronic tat, and 4x4s etc. We do not need them, they're doing us no good, and they're wrecking our trade balance.
I would also impose high taxes on other wasteful luxuries like private school fees and healthcare. This is not about class envy, but about having a taxation system which would make us into a more efficient, better unit- it's got to be better for us all in the long term if class barriers are broken down.
Like yours, Nataku, my policies would rock too many boats for any mainstream UK party to adopt them. In the meantime, we just have to go for the least worst option.
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Eatonrifle wrote:
"The Police?
The Armed Forces?
The NHS?
The Fire Service?
How about the Eduon Service, those nasty schools with teachers etc?
Although I don't know about the Armed Forces ALL the other pay significant contributions towards a pension so why shouldn't they actually get it?"
You don't seem to get it, the "gold plated" bit is the thing that is what your average taxpayer takes exception to!
Government has been paying out larger pensions than have been contributed into therefore this whole scandal being called a Public Sector Pension DEFICIT
Equally everyone in the private sector could argue that they have paid into a pension but their returns are not high enough and demand a bigger pension by right.
It is nonsense of course, a pension needs to be funded, you can't just magic it from thin air, so it is either from public sector contributions (both by the employees and the state via BUDGETED contributions from the treasury) or its UNFUNDED and taken from joe publics taxes without being accounted for.
The latter has been happening for years, and the gluttonous apetite for this Labour government to swell the ranks of the public sector, largely with quangos and consultants and pen pushers has compounded a long standing issue and made it a hell of a lot worse.
I don't give a rats ar*e if public sector pensions are significantly more attractive than their private sector counterparts but at lease put them in the books! If government insists on having them bloody well account for them in your budget every year.
Ignoring them for decades is going to financially cripple this nation for a long time to come.
This is not even a party political issue at its core anymore, its one of those MUTANT GIANT WHITE ELEPHANTS in the reception room of Number 11 Downing Street and it is not going anywhere anytime soon!
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Apologisies about the public sector ranting , probably the previous person(#208), descibed the publis sector pensions problem with rather better reasoning.
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MunichMadrid7980
I agree wholeheartedly that such a vision as I outlined regarding national services and lower headline taxes would have to be funded, and am not advocating hitting core NHS or Education budgets.
But consider this, there are easily £100 billion worth of savings to be had from slashing the quango count, reducing our military occupation around the world (read Iraq and Afghanistan) along with the government profits to be had from running a national savings and loan bank (obviously this cannot be a not for profit entity, it has to turn a respectable profit to fund things like the NHS and Education and anything else that carries a heavy state cost).
Consider what a number of bloggers have posted on this site, limiting any public sector position salary to a MAXIMUM of £100,000
I am sure tat would save tens of millions if not more each year.
I also have no issue with higher taxation via VAT on luxury goods such as supercars, yaughts, private schooling, long haul air travel (maybe super tax first class and business class but leave a lower tax on economy seats!)
End of the day if we want to shape our society for a better, greener, more prosperous and fairer future a hell of a lot of change is needed.
People go on about change as if switching between centre left and centre right is a huge swing.
It isn't, the type of change this nation and the world needs is unthinkable for any political party (as you have already stated)
And the reason? I don't for a second believe that it is because some of our brightest ambitious politicians are too thick to consider it, but because then realize the public are too blinded by the here and now, the pound in their pocket and the "not on my watch" attitude.
It boils down to short termism, but not only of politicians, its the public that are largely to blame. Politicians will chase the will of the people generally speaking, they are not all too bothered about the long term future of us all.
End of the day, the RIGHT change is seen to be far too radical for ANY mainstream political party, unfortunately meaning we will just keep going in circles every 8-12 years from centre right to centre left politics, with the odd term of pure policy craziness.
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How to save money in the public sector without cutting essential services:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article2288611.ece
Annual savings - £127 billion
Abolish ID cards - saving £5.4 billion
There, that was easy, no loss of essential services, and no loss of personal freedoms.
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210
Welcome to the world of politics.
Sometimes I think that everything is political and other times that politics is meaningless - depends how much Deuchars I've had.
Your analysis is pretty accurate I would say and condemns us to a difficult future.
The only way forward is to educate people into less self-interest then we will get the politicians we need (though maybe not if we cap public sector pay).
However, as my grandad used to say: "It's human nature to be selfish and you can't change human nature." I think you can change things over a long period of time but not sure we have that long.
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#207 "In order to save that much, the govt depts with big budgets (health and education) would need to be pruned big time.
That means poor schools and long waiting lists for NHS treatment."
Only if one subscribes to the Gordon Brown school of public spending reduction where the first thing to be cut is teachers and nurses. Anyone else, of course, would cut those last, but he's been repeatedly clear that they'd be first to go in the case of any cuts in spending.
One might also point out that poor schools is what we have *now* - it's not lack of spending which is the problem here.
Personally I think if we got rid of 90% of "targets" and the management busy fiddling their systems so that they appear to be meeting them we'd probably save most of that straight off. Especially given what salaries some of those managers are on!
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Gordo HAS to go for an election before the summer. Not because of the polls, but because he will be forced out by a vote of no confidence by then.
MPs will have seen the size of the abyss he's created and want to distance themselves from the man. The only way to do that is by kicking him out.
If he can sneak in and win an election before the worst of the depression kicks in, he'll have a better bet at staying in power, claiming "mandates" and suchlike.
However, the gamble is that once he's called an election, he can stall the worst economic news from getting out long enough to make it look like his policies are actually doing good.
The job for the Conservatives is to get that information leaked as soon as possible, so that the electorate are aware of the economic black hole we face.
Now do you see why they jumped so harshly on Damian Green and his mole? Labour will have to keep a tight ship in order not to be sunk by leaks.
Its going to be an interesting 6 months!
Although I still maintain that 2010 is where you will will see major changes.
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Gordo HAS to go for an election before the summer. Not because of the polls, but because he will be forced out by a vote of no confidence by then.
MPs will have seen the size of the abyss he's created and want to distance themselves from the man. The only way to do that is by kicking him out.
If he can sneak in and win an election before the worst of the depression kicks in, he'll have a better bet at staying in power, claiming "mandates" and suchlike.
However, the gamble is that once he's called an election, he can stall the worst economic news from getting out long enough to make it look like his policies are actually doing good.
The job for the Conservatives is to get that information leaked as soon as possible, so that the electorate are aware of the economic black hole we face.
Now do you see why they jumped so harshly on Damian Green and his mole? Labour will have to keep a tight ship in order not to be sunk by leaks.
Its going to be an interesting 6 months!
Although I still maintain that 2010 is where you will will see major political and social changes.
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# 193 Eatonrifle
Absolutely agree. They do such a good job of alienating people that it would be counter-productive to complain.
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Westminster village is at it again.
In the wider countryside the majority of the elctorate do not want an election as Cameron has spectacularly failed to ignite the electorate into wanting him as the next PM. In fact I suspect that even amongst Tories there is a lack of conviction that Dave is the person they want to lead them out of the trenches. In 1979 Maggie's supporters were right behind her as were Tony's in 1997. I get no feeling of such a groundswell for Dave.
Dave might well win the next election, but I believe that if the election were tomorrow the votes he gets will have been grudgingly given by a large part of the population. The predominant attitude is 'a plague on both your houses.'
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Public sector pensions?
If you talk to many firefighters, police, teachers, nurses you will find that even though they love their job the one thing that keeps them going is the prospect of a secure pension. If you took the pension away you would have a job retention problem which would be solved only by higher wages. In the public sector a good pension is regarded as part of your salary.
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#212:
At last a more reasoned post from you devoid of any political ranting. I'm much more likely to read and take in what you say and less likely to reply in kind when you are in this kind of mood. It's what debate is all about. I also agree entirely with your sentiments on this occasion.
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Gordon Brown does not have the courage to call and election.........dream on!
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211. Yellowbelly
It's all very well getting articles from eg 'The Times' to support your position.
It is always helpful, however, to look at who commissions and produces any 'research', whether politically sensitive or not.
In this case, the organisation which makes the scarcely credible claim that 127 billion per year could be saved by abolishing all quangos is called the Economic Research Council.
Its Chairman is one Lord Lamont.
213 Rachel.
'Only if one subscribes to the Gordon Brown school of public spending reduction where the first thing to be cut is teachers and nurses. Anyone else, of course, would cut those last, but he's been repeatedly clear that they'd be first to go in the case of any cuts in spending.
One might also point out that poor schools is what we have *now* - it's not lack of spending which is the problem here.'
Theoretically, of course any public spending cuts would always target 'wasteful, non- frontline' areas first.
Unfortunately, to do that you need to have more 'managers', not fewer, to identify who is essential, and who is not.
Plus, one effect of cutting down on NHS accountants, for example, is the
poor control of spending. Yes, you may save 50K per year on the salary bill by sacking an accountant, but you may spend multiples more of that figure on wasteful spending caused by not having an accountant in charge- it's like doing your own tax return...
When you look at what has actually happened to the NHS since 1997 you find that the vast majority of the extra spending has gone on recruiting extra clinical staff, and on paying them more. Me, I think that the pay some doctors get is obscene, but I dare say that they would counter that what bankers (used to) get is more obscene... As for dentists, well they've been taking advantage of good ol' supply and demand to boost their remuneration. In other words, they've simply been behaving like good Tories.
Personally, I would cap public sector pay at 100K, but I don't think it's as easy to cull tens of billions from the NHS as you seem to think, without sacking frontline staff.
When you consider the sparse numbers of staff employed in the NHS under Lord Lament's chancellorship (see above) you will understand the reticence among most people with a working long term memory to believe the Tories on this one. The suspicion has to be that, once elected, they would merely run down the NHS, especially since they represent the sector of the population who use only private healthcare, and resent having to pay 'twice'.
Similar comments apply to education. BTW, if you think state schools are 'poor' now, you are either too young (lucky you) or had no direct experience of state education under the Tory regime, 1979-97.
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#210
just a quick point...
i'm sure there will be a few public sector employees on over £100k per year (and I mean a few in relation to the total number of employees) and i would agree with a salary cap of sorts, but it would not save the millions you suggest. There simply arent the numbers paid that much to make any major difference.
It is a common falacy that public sector people are paid a lot of money.
Mean (average) salary in this country is about £24000 (at least it was in the stats for August this year!)
In one goverment organisation that i've looked at the stats for, out of 89000 staff, over 48000, more than half, are on less than 19K, with many well below that. The next 22000 odd are on a MAX of £25K. So that's nearly 80% of the work force on or below average earnings!
Higher taxation on luxury goods I do agree with though, the recent VAT cut has just meant that I could buy that 4000 pound plasma tv for 80 odd quid less...woopee!!!!
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217 - I think you have hit the nail on the head....
Cameron is struggling to motivate his own Party - let alone the Country.
I am glad to see the Daily Mail - yes the Daily Mail - actually report what I have indicated over many weeks on this blog - I'm sure they could find me a job somewhere - they need some balanced reporting LOL...
Basically,the Mail are saying Do nothing Dave is making too many speeches that basically either say nothing new,or actually contradict what he has already said...
Thatcherites in the Tory Party are actually saying to him - a Tory Leaders speech should be an event...not a daily occurence...
Electorally,I genuinely believe he is no more an asset to the Tories than Brown is a liability to Labour...that may change but I believe David Davis if Leader would double what I believe to be the current Tory Lead of between 2-5%...the danger for them is - the more Dave speaks - the more their floating vote erodes....as I pointed out yesterday - there are distinct similarities emerging in public perception now in terms of Party eader to 1992....we all know what happened then....unpopular John Major won an election because the more people heard from Kinnock the more concerned they became about his roots and background...
The roots and background of Cameron viz a viz Kinnock are chalk and cheese....BUT my point is - if you cannot sweep a nation up with you - like Blair and Thatcher did....be more cautious...
In 1978 and in 1996 - similar time of the current political and strikingly similar economic climate....Blair and Thatcher were enjoying popular opinion poll support (OK there were fewer in 1978 but those that were done were noteworthy) well in excess of 50-55%.....Cameron is stuck on 40%....Labour are gently eroding that...
If Dave is not careful he is damned....damned for doing nothing - damned for talking the Country down (his spats about Karen Matthews and Baby P do him no political credit) and damned if he does say something as by saying too much he is clouding the issue....and blurring his message...
My advice to Cameron....shut up for 2 weeks.....reshuffle the deadwood like Osborne,Spelman,Lansley, and Gove out....get Davis,Clarke and Pickles in....nail the Bullingdon issue - get some political heavyweights in.....and let someone other than yourself make key-note speeches.......and watch your opinion poll lead grow again..
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If you were being cynical the announcement that troops will be withdrawn from Iraq by July next year could be a pointer to the way Gordon Brown is thinking vis a vis an Election call. The money saved could then be pumped into the pockets of core voters while at the same time appeasing the anti-war lobby.
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At 09:41am on 17 Dec 2008, MunichMadrid7980 wrote:
211. Yellowbelly
It's all very well getting articles from eg 'The Times' to support your position.
It is always helpful, however, to look at who commissions and produces any 'research', whether politically sensitive or not.
In this case, the organisation which makes the scarcely credible claim that 127 billion per year could be saved by abolishing all quangos is called the Economic Research Council.
Its Chairman is one Lord Lamont.
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So you are saying the figures are made up are you? Or is it just that you refuse to believe them because of who the author is? Or is it that the figures are correct but it shows how bloated and unnecessary a large part of your beloved public sector is?
Also you forgot to comment on the savings to be made by scrapping ID cards.
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# 221 MunichMadrid7980
You are right though to be wary about who produces statistics to back up their political beliefs
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5347037.ece
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One of my sons was at Northwood - Nato underground command, yesterday. The armed forces hate Brown. They are not allowed to make public statements but I have spoken to a contingent from there and all I am allowed to say is they really really want him OUT.
The Iraq war was nothing to do with 9/11. It was based on the premise of weapons of mass destruction (we all know that one). Taking Saddam out was good but why continue for years losing our boys' lives and innocent Iraqi's lives?
All about control. Control of the oil fields. Part of New World Order, pushed by Bush Senior onto George Bush Jnr. just following daddy's orders. The first gulf war pulled out the Americans too early - though Bush snr. Baby Bush is continuing daddy's work and roped us into it. Cheers.
What of Afghanistan? What if they actually get Bin Laden? The bloodshed will continue because his henchman will continue. Just because the leader has gone doesn't mean their ranks will collapse.
And the War on Terror continues around the world and is one which cannot and will not ever be won because you cannot define what it actually is.
Vote puller. Nice gift for Christmas - our boys out of Iraq next year. Nice one Gord. NOT.
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227 - my brother is in the RAF and has been for almost 20 years...
The average Squaddie does'nt hate Brown - any more than they hated Blair or Major or Thatcher..
Many detested Major - for not having the backbone to do what he started in 1992 - i.e eradicate Saddam while they had the chance.
Most will applaud the decision to get out of Iraq - most believed it was right to go in when they did in 2002 - and most would ideally have been out 2 years ago - the general concencus is better late than never...
Afghanistan is I grant you the one that grates....for several reasons..
1. it is a war we can never win......we are fighting a guerilla army in a guerilla armys paradise....the Red Army at its peak could'nt do it - we wont do it
2. Army's cant win religious war's of the type - and I know people who come back from there who are then astounded that they are abused and worse by British born muslims in this Country who see Afghanistan,The Taleban and Al Queda as some sort of "pop-shop" at western values.....
The proper thing to do in my opinion - and I have to beware moderation here - so I will make it as polite as possible...
1. withdraw ALL NATO forces from Afghanistan
2. Use the UN to "prop up" the Afghan regime comensurate with them destroying the poppy fields...
3. Extradite immediately anyone in the UK - whether born here or not - to Afghanistan - who supports or gets involved in any form of pro Islamic Militancy or insurgency...
4. Target at Afghanistan - and make it clear they are targetted but WONT be deployed unless matters dictate - from neighbouring friendly states - state of the art nuclear and no nuclear missiles.(we did it with Cuba in the 60's....why not now?)
5. Enforce the licensing and policing of the licencing system of all Mosques and places of Islamic worship in the UK - appeal to the EU to enforce it too....it should be allowable to follow the Muslim faith - but any breaches of sensible worship should be jumped on and fast....this will support the decent and honest Muslim majority who are too scared to speak out against the militants
My appraoch will create a waste bin....thats waste bin would be Afghanistan - eggs that are rotten in one basket that can be adequately policied....
strong and decisive not unfair or immoral - but if you believe as I do,as some Muslim friends I have believe but are afraid to say - that Islamic fundamentalism is the biggest danger facing the world today....action is necessary...political,religious and moral action..
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# 218:
Spot on speaking as a retired teacher! I think we deserve our benefits a great deal more than the many hundreds of thousands of benefit seekers who spend their day sitting on their backsides receiving payments which do nothing but help to bleed our tax revenues dry. I'm not of course talking about those who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own.
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Is it me or would world saver Brown rather be in Iraq than face another beating from Cameron in the house.
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230 - THATS JUST BARMPOT THINKING....
If you take away the grossly over-hyped "world" comment last week and arguably the "baby p" week- even Tory blogs like conservativehome - have awarded PMQ victory to Brown most weeks since the Conference season in the early Autumn...
PMQ might be the highlight of the week for Do nothing Dave....Brown has a Country to lead , a war to get out of,a recession to fight, a Post Office to sort out and he has to somehow wangle an appearance on SCD before Cameron gets a ticket!....
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dudley @ 228:
In response to your comments:
1. The problem here is that the terror camps and training grounds would in all likelihood return which would then heighten the danger of attacks on British targets. The upside is that the terrorists could not then claim that they were launching freedom fighter attacks on us because our troops were invading their territory.
2. The UN soldiers soldiers would then become targets themselves so laying themselves open to taking heavy casualties.
3. The problem with this is that we would just be adding to the militant strength in that country thereby further endangering the well being of The UN troops you intend to deploy.
4. They're already targeted and have been for decades. They simply don't care. They feel that death in battle is an honour to be rewarded with any number of virgins in heaven. They simply don't respond to conventional threats of any kind.
5. This will just put their backs up and lead to the germinaton of yet more militant individuals willing to lose their lives in the cause of their misguided view of Islam. I agree however that wayward warmongering clerics should be deported immediately without a drain on public expense.
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231#
World was what he was thinking and world was what Brown ment. Brown has been in charge of this country with Blair for the last 11 years and that is why it is in the mess it is in.
If Brown had had the guts and nerve to call an election Do nothing Dave would been getting on with the mess this out of ideas out of date Government.
But lets wait for the Old Labour cry of its all Maggys fault.
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Let see how many attacks will happen against our troops in Iraq now World saver Brown has said they will leave next year.
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#GAD
Brown has a Country to lead , a war to get out of,a recession to fight, a Post Office to sort out and he has to somehow wangle an appearance on SCD before Cameron gets a ticket!....
Ah. Is That what he's been doing? I thought he was "doing whatever it takes" to save his scrawny neck!
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219 sic
Yeah but I only came on here to annoy some of the bigots - if I start getting sensible too often I'll have to change my blog name.
227 lame Pat
This will never happen again but I almost agree with you. However, don't see why your very fair critique of the war on terror ends with a condemnation of GB who just wants to get the soldiers out, and, I suspect, never really wanted to get involved in the first place (though he couldn't say that at the time).
230 maggyisgaga
Beating from Cameron? - I think we're into dead sheep territory here to quote Denis Healey
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People that call David Cameron "Do Nothing" dave are hilarious. They are such silly sheep that they have adopted what is some silly marketing ploy by Mandy and Co. and repeat it like it is somehow truth. You don't seriously think people will take you seriously on here do you?
No one who supports Brown has ever come up with good arguments as to why he is such a great choice for leader. You resort to lame digs at the Tories, whinging about the 80s and somehow think that is sufficient in a debate.
FYI Do Nothing Dave seemed to be backed up by a lot of people in Europe, leaders and financial experts alike. One has yet to come out and tell us that Brown's robbing us of our pensions and gold and borrowing so much that my great grandchildren will still be paying it off, is somehow the answer.
But by all means, you believe the spin that Mandy and co feed you. But don't expect me to take you seriously or think you are worthy of debate. make up your own mind, be critical and realise that it's not all black and white.
If he calls that election, and somehow the completely disengaged people of this country, vote him back in, then I am off. In fact I hope he gets voted back in because it is about time Labour clear up their own mess and not expect the Tories to do it... AGAIN.
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236 Laughtatthetories Cry at Labour
Cameron beats Brown because he is not a bully and not a leader. He was giving the job because nobody dare stand up to him which was bad for Labour and worse for the country.
He dont listen to anyone and thinks its his way or no way. We can all see he is not up to the job of PM
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225 / 226 yellow
I would very much like to see the detail of the Lamont report.
One has to suspect in advance, however, that it is unlikely to be completely impartial.
Perhaps you could save me the trouble, and tell me how much per quango Norma thinks we could easily save with no adverse economic consequences to the wider economy? Must be a lot to get to 127 billion total. Also, why is the private sector contributing 40 odd billion if these organisations are of no economic benefit?
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Sorry Brown is a bully and not a leader. My it is easy to put and say the wrong thing. I have been listen to Brown to much.
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Are we all watching PMQ?
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There's been much made of Labour's resurgence in the polls. Strikes me there can be two possible reasons for this.
1. A lot of people took on a lot of debt thinking that the bubble would never burst. Forget whether it's responsible or not, after a while, like gambling, it becomes a sickness. Just one more bet ..., just one more risk ... Junkies can't or don't like facing up to their problems. Just when you think you're going to have to dig deep and fix your problems, someone comes along and says "actually you don't have a problem, in fact if you could just indulge a bit more than it will actually help". Wouldn't you buy that? Live in denial a bit longer. Fix the problem tomorrow or better still, let someone else fix it. This could be a real problem for anybody that actually wants to govern. Vote for Labour and you can live in denial for a bit longer.
2. They are just polls and they are operated by the same media pushers who allow the political reporting (or not) to go on as it does. Why are these any more believable than all the other spin? The only poll that matters is the "X" in the box on election day, and if ever there was a need for an urgent mandate then this has to be it.
I'm hoping that debt isn't a disease and that its just a binge and that the hangover has set in and that many will choose moderated future behaviour rather than "hair of the dog" to lessen the effects until the next binge can begin.
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239 MunichMadrid7980
You haven't answered the question about scrapping ID cards.
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240 god
I think you've been listening to Maggy too much...
But yes, it is all her fault for encouraging an unbridled pursuit of self interest as personified by the yuppie, who believed that amassing personal wealth was the only raison d'etre.
This led to a have and have not society which still persists and labour have failed to tackle. The have nots borrowed huge amounts encouraged by greeding 'financial advisors' (don't get me started) to try to bridge the gap in lifestyles.
And we have ended up with a divided, morally bankrupt semi-society.
We should have listened to Tony Benn! There's still time...
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239 MunichMadrid7980
Perhaps you could save me the trouble, and tell me how much per quango Norma thinks we could easily save with no adverse economic consequences to the wider economy? Must be a lot to get to 127 billion total. Also, why is the private sector contributing 40 odd billion if these organisations are of no economic benefit?
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If these organisations had sufficient economic benefit then the private sector would pay the whole amount!
"The Economic Research Council has found that quangos ? those 883 bodies that provide relief for the bureaucratic classes ? swallow £167.5 billion a year of your and my money. A quarter of that comes from fees on business, something that we as consumers eventually pay;"
Maybe they have no choice but to pay these fees so are not doing it voluntarily. Anyway, the cost gets passed on to the consumer.
I run a small business, we have to pay business rates, fair enough. But, we also have to pay a compulsory levy to a Business Improvement Group on top of the rates, this provided things such as street cleaning teams and Police community support officers!!
So what the **** am I paying my rates for if not to fund security and clean streets? That is a quango, set up by the local council, that I have no alternative but to contribute to.
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244 Laughatthetories
Margaret Thatcher has not been Prime Minister since 1990. Labour has been in power since 1997, get over it and accept that the current woes are the fault of the current party in power, or are you admitting that Labour have been totally ineffectual for the last 11 & a half years?
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237 Orange
'FYI Do Nothing Dave seemed to be backed up by a lot of people in Europe, leaders and financial experts alike. One has yet to come out and tell us that Brown's robbing us of our pensions and gold and borrowing so much that my great grandchildren will still be paying it off, is somehow the answer.'
FMI, would these 'lot of people in Europe' be the same ones who are currently pumping money into their own economies, propping up their banks and manufacturing industries, etc? These include Germany, Switzerland, France, Spain and Sweden, FYI.
FYI, robbing the pensions and gold is pure Daily Mail dreamland. Our FTSE-based private pensions have been 'robbed' far more by the sheer incompetence of fund managers who appear to have invested blindly in companies such as UK banks with no thought about whether their shares were worth the inflated prices they paid on our behalf. There is little if any justification for share dividends to be tax free.
Gold is just a red herring. It costs a lot to hold securely, and pays no dividend at all. Far better in the long term to hold government bonds.
I note you don't mention the 22 billion GB made for the country by selling off the 3G telecom licences at the height of the dotcom bubble- he used it the pay down the National Debt, btw. These licences are virtually valueless now, FYI.
FYI, Brown's decision in 1997 to make the BoE independent caused an instant drop of about 1% in the long-term interest rates paid on our National Debt, saving our grandchildren billions.
FMI, are these 'financial experts' who disagree with Brown (plus the rest of the developed world's leaders, not that that makes any difference) the same ones whose great expertise caused the whole mess we're in now?
Are many of the British 'financial experts' who disagree with Brown the same City whizzkids who fund the Tory party, and stand to gain personally by things like changes to inheritance tax in the Tory 'plan', such as it is?
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A couple of lists have been posted here by both sides and actually I've enjoyed both of them because it reminds me just how precarious it is to trust politicians. You are as likely to be embarrassed or frustrated by "your own side" than those you consider your political opposition.
The political "debate" such that it is puts little weight in policies. The stats are rigged or hidden so who knows what the truth is.
The conservatives weren't booted out because the economy was poor, indeed it was just starting to get better. No it was Tory sleaze and arrogance that did for them. Well Labour spin and Tory sleaze are the same thing and they both devalue politics.
The Tory transformation isn't complete yet and we've seen only recently that they can fiddle their expenses with the best of them. I welcome "Social Justice" because as I start to trust them, it's the stick I'll beat them with if the arrogance and sleaze starts to re-emerge.
For the list makers of Tory faults you should put sleaze on every other line. But we're not talking about the Tories. They were obliterated as a political force for 3 parliaments and rightly so.
Labour spin is the current cancer and for me it's at least as bad as sleaze. They both undermine trust.
The Labour fault listers have included spin, but one line in 30 doesn't do it justice. Every other line has to be spin. It's the first thing they do in the morning and it's the last thing they do at night. It corrupts everything they do.
The public's spin radar is poor. For a while, the public became senitised and the spin doctors had to go away. Labour's back is against the wall and they are reverting to type. It's not even subtle as the a-team of spin is reassembled.
When Gordon became PM he said that Spin was a thing of the past. Those that heard this and hated the double talk thought that meant "no more spin". Great. Of course like all spin, this plays on what you want to hear. Of course it could equally well mean that spin is a thing of the present and will be a thing of the future. Now we can see Gordon was spinning even his derision of spin.
Be aware, be very aware. You can't fight spin by ignoring it as the consevatives have been doing - you just look weak. Indulge in it then you are as bad as them. Denounce spin and then maybe, just maybe proper debate about policies has a chance.
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Am I getting paranoid or has the BBC become the mouthpiece for Brown's re-election campaign. Almost EVERY news item begins "Gordon Brown says". Today with record unemployment figure and a Post Office sell of we get the news that we already knew that we are coming out of Iraq with appropriate photo shoots. When sadly four of our soldiers are killed in Afghanistan it is a "Gordon Brown condemns" story. When the Speaker admits failing the House of Cpommons the lead story is a quickly cobbled together "Gordon Brown announces help for all mortgage payers threatened with reposession". When the Eurozone agree amongst themselves some fiscal measures the lead here is that of another Grdon Brown triumph. And so on ad nauseuam. Can we please have a return to a balanced non partisan approach to your news service?
Tomupnorth
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Nick
Could the announcement by Brown in Baghdad that our forces will be out by 31st May 2009 be a good indicator of the date for the election?
I presume he intends to tell Parliament sometime - presumably after his Xmas hols.
In the meantime - I believe they may have found the WMD's
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=3792042&cc=3540329
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Fredalo @ 250:
If Richard Reid had had his way this would have been perceived as a very bad joke!
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#250:
See my post 224 for confirmation of the very same thoughts! On reflection I doubt he will go for an Early Election because people will suspect as Nick Robinson said today that he knows "exactly what's round the corner".
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Election fever.... yak, bring out the Paracetamol's, anything for a earache bug?
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sicilian29 #252
re your #224
Great minds etc - or is that cynical minds?
With the Beeb in their pockets - at least until it becomes just too embarrassing to provide cover for NuLab, although they show no signs of shame yet - I guess Brown etc are hoping that they may just get a result before the toilet substances hit the fan. Hence the temptation to go next Spring
And it will hit the fan folks - just a question of when.
Once upon a time there was a pretty little flower called a PBR - but a big bad Trillion (related to a Troll) stamped on it and the little flower didn't live happily ever after.
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243. Yellow
To be honest the ID card issue does not get me going that much.
For all their bluster even if, as PM and home sec, Cammy and David Davis (reinstated), were informed by a security services chief that tagging us all and holding all our DNA records were necessary to prevent future terrorist attacks, do you seriously believe that they would fail to bring both measures in, plus detention without trial for 90 days, if they were told it was necessary?- to refuse such advice would be very dangerous.
Since we are not (thankfully, despite the Tories' best efforts) yet privy to everything that the govt are being told by the security forces, it's quite tricky to have an informed opinion, about the usefulness in such questions or otherwise of ID cards, same with 42 days etc.
It's pretty likely that it wouldn't make the security forces' jobs any harder if we all had to have ID cards...
Decisions about national security became a whole lot harder after 9-11. Following any future terrorist attack in the UK, the govt will rightly have to answer if it had done everything reasonable to prevent it. I suggest that ignoring the advice of the security forces might be construed as negligent by some, even by some of those who bleat about civil liberties now.
It's very easy to stand outside and carp, I wouldn't personally want responsibility for the prevention of terrorism.
I dare say that those from the right who protest about security measures would be the very people who would applaud a future Tory govt for being 'tough on terror', if and when they bring in ID cards, which they sure as hell would if they were told it was necessary / useful to our security.
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# 241 maggyisgod
No, I have to work, but even if I could watch it I would choose not to.
A thoroughly unedifying spectacle with public school boys shouting insults at one another.
A bit like this blog sometimes.
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# 244 Laughatthetories
It will come as no surprise that I agree with that. ;o)
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# 246 yellowbelly1959
All governments of the last 50 years have been ineffectual. Get over it!
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I,ve just watched Geoff Randall skewer Darling in an interview on Sky. The most honest I,ve watched for years. You and your bosses should ask Sky for a copy and make yourself and all your reporters watch it at least once a day! We might then get at the truth of things instead of allowing these second rate politicians to air their views, whilst you feed them lines like a comedien,s straight man. Roll on the time when the BBC has to go private and make you lot work for your money!!
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259
I'll second that!
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