Extraordinary
Just a few long weeks ago when the Labour Party was gathering for its conference all agreed that the Glenrothes by-election was already lost and many felt that this might prove to be the trigger for a full blooded leadership coup. That, it was argued, was why voting should take place in the week of the American election so that bad news could be quickly forgotten if not actually buried.
Even yesterday, on the day of voting, Labour MPs were convinced they'd lost and the SNP did nothing to downgrade expectations of the political earthquake which Alex Salmond had once predicted.
Gordon Brown has re-written the textbooks for leaders in crisis. It was never before thought helpful for leaders in trouble to organise a global economic crisis.
The question today is how much this was a local rather than a national election?
Gordon Brown isn't just the MP for the neighbouring constituency. He was born and bred a Fifer - a citizen of the Kingdom of Fife. Labour's candidate was the highly respected and well known head teacher of his old school. His wife Sarah regularly popped in to campaign from their home four miles down the road.
The SNP were the incumbents. They ran both the council and the Scottish government and, although this was a Westminster election, Labour successfully turned this into a referendum on the SNP's performance - their local spending squeeze and their national promise made in headier times that an independent Scotland could join an "arc of prosperity" with, er, Iceland.
The economic downturn - which has led news bulletins for weeks - has yet to be felt by many in Fife. There's anxiety about job losses at the nearby Rosyth dockyard and fears that they'll soon follow in the banking sector, but when I spent two days there last week I could not find local examples of economic gloom. That is why the SNP campaigned not on the looming recession but on the soaring cost of fuel bills.
Nevertheless, none of this would have mattered a jot if Labour voters had felt ashamed of their government and embarrassed by their leader. In Glasgow East, in the aftermath of the 10p tax fiasco, many felt both. In Glenrothes it's clear that many did not.
None of it would have been possible if Alex Salmond's long honeymoon with the electorate had not ended (you can read much more about that on the blog of the BBC's political editor in Scotland, Brian Taylor).
Now, of course we should remember that this was always a safe Labour seat. Of course, we should note that there was still a swing away from Labour. Of course, we can observe that the party could not run this sort of campaign in a general election.
However, what matters in politics is momentum and narrative. This was scheduled to have been the week when the voters of Glenrothes declared "It's time for a change". Instead, by casting what politicians like to call "real votes in real ballot boxes" they have confirmed that the Brown bounce is real.
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Looks like I got it wrong in forecasting that Labour would "just squeeze" the win - will try and do better next time ...
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Oh come off it Nick. Labour MPs were not 'convinced they had lost'. It's an old trick of dampening expectations so that what happens on the day is likely to be better than 'expected'.
It's called spin and you are being spun a treat.
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Nick, I can't remember the Thatcher Government or the Major Government holding on to many of their own seats in by-elections. Now it seems to be big news if Labour loses. Is this an indication that the media is looking forward to Barack O'Cameron winning the next election and giving him an easy ride. On this morning's news the Tory lost deposit didn't even get a mention.
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Something that was extraordinary was the complete failure of the BBC on the Today progamme this morning to get the swing right, which you did not correct either.
Bob MacKenzie must be turning in its grave. So what was it Nick, 8% or 5%? I know do you.
The BBC needs to get its act together!
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I think I'd echo Michael Portillo's thoughts on this when he was asked about it on This Week when the result was becoming apparent.
ie Just how badly do you need to ruin the economy for the people of Glenrothes to vote against you?
According to the IMF the UK, thanks to labour's running of the economy, is the worst placed country in the developed world and will have the biggest hit on the recession because of that.
The banks have been regulated by labour in such a way that they pretty much went bankrupt and scotland will lose thousands of jobs in the banking sector because of it.
We're going to end up with a public debt which will take generations to pay off, and the interest alone on it will be well over 40billion a year.
Yet the people of Glenrothes still thought it was best to keep labour in charge.
Do they know something that nobody else does?
Very strange; I don't understand it.
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"Labour successfully turned this into a referendum on the SNP's performance - their local spending squeeze and their national promise made in headier times that an independent Scotland could join an "arc of prosperity" with, er, Iceland."
"Instead, by casting what politicians like to call "real votes in real ballot boxes" they have confirmed that the Brown bounce is real."
Make your mind up, Nick. You can't say that it was about local performance and the SNP and then claim that shows that everyone has confidence in Brown again.
The people who voted Labour voted for the Labour candidate (whose name you don't even mention) and not for Brown. The reason I know this is that Lindsay Roy was on Radio 4 this morning saying it - about 30 seconds after you were praising Brown for his victory.
If you keep sucking up like this, Mrs Brown is going to start to get suspicious.
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Brown may be on a high at the moment, but if he doesn't call an election soon, the repercussions of this recession will come back to haunt him. By next year the amount of people losing their jobs, being made bankrupt (27,000 as at today's date), and having their homes repossessed will have reached record figures and his popularity will be short-lived.
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Like I said on Forcing the Banks, McBrown's shower WOULD hope to win on his own turf and the tactical voting for SNP were the catalyst for the result. If t'were straightforward them and us and have no doubt t'would be we who'd win.
In and about Londinium yesterday I spoke to many many foreign tourists who all said they had heard from all the English (British, whatevwer) they spoke to on their stay here that the country is fed up with the unelected Brown. He makes out to be saviour of the world but there is an underlying fear on their part of what is actually around the corner and how it will all pan out.
The helicopter was out and my husband saw Brown in the back of his chauffered limo., grave, dour, head in hands in London yesterday. Oh woe. The job and the burden is so great for him. Hope he has the stamina.
We know that, they know that, and the people will eventually be allowed to record it.
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Nick
I'm sorry a rock solid safe Labour seat next door to the Prime Minister's own constituency, with the PM coming from the area. An election where Labour have thrown everything except the kitchen sink at it with the unaccountable and unquestioned Mrs Brown visiting seven times (or more?); is held on a reduced majority.
A triumph !! The Brown bounce is real !!
You must be joking.
Ah, the vintage BBC bias.
For the life of me I cannot understand why 19,000 supposedly sane voters can vote Labour after:
An additional £1.5 Trillion spent on public services since 1997 to scant improvement.
A massive spending program in eduction that has delivered little education improvement.
Student tuition fees.
3000 new imprisonable offences but no new prisons.
CCTV festooning our cities and Special constables but no police.
Massive surveillance of the population but no security.
Unlimited immigration.
Worship of celebrity culture
Spin and deceit
Operating government as a media operation
Focus on eye-catching initiatives but not actual improvements to peoples lives
Abandonment of personal responsibility
Massive welfareism
5.4 Million people of working age on out of work benefits
NEETS
Huge and ludicrous regulation except where it was necessary
Pointless wars
Suborning our foreign policy to the US
Party funding (I cannot say more as the moderators will delete this comment)
Stealth taxes
Massive tax burden
Massive borrowing and debt
Illusionary economic growth driven by cheap debt
Unsustainable asset bubble driven by debt
Unfunded spending
An end to the "end of boom and bust"
Not preparing for the bust by massive spending leaving little room for manoeuvre
A deep coming recession
Hollowing out of the UKs economy driven by the casino in the City
Off balance sheet accounting
Destruction of the pensions system
Inadequate funding of the military whilst asking them to do more and more
35 deaths due to the use of "Snatch" land rovers in Afghanistan
and so on.....
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Who do you choose between: Scylla or Charybdis?
Default politics.
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I can only put this down to habitual voting. I also live in a safe Labour seat, and the last time we had an election I saw a teenage lad being taken to vote by his dad for the first time, and his dad was explaining what to do.
"You put a cross here where it says Labour, and then another cross here where it says Labour." he said.
Given that my constituency also has an extremely high rate of benefit-dependents (we have one of the highest teenage pregnancy rates in the UK, for example), so it's easy to see why Labour are still popular here. I can only assume it's the same at Glenrothes because no-one in their right minds who regularly pays tax or pays attention to the outside world should ever be voting for these incompetent criminals ever again.
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Does anyone think that Lindsay Roy may be given a more lucrative job for saving Brown's bacon?
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Alex Salmond is just a political troll. He's very clever and persuasive but he sniffed his own gasses too much and imploded. People like this can look very strong and get a lot of attention but they're a little too bright and brittle. As people slowly caught up and developed their own view the wax holding his political wings on melted and he crashed to the earth.
"You can't buck the market."
"What goes around comes around."
"This cannot be taught."
This is no time for an apprentice, "Dave". Cuz, you're next...
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We all know these things:
1. Brown is partly culpable for the economic crash
2. The Brown rescue plan aped the approach taken by other countries previously and has not been copied by those countries that followed
3. That the UK economy is the worst prepared economy of the major countries to enter a recession (following the IMF warning and massive interest rate cut)
The reason Gordon survives is because of what you call the "narrative".
The media have not given Labour the kicking they deserve for crashing the UK.
The media have bought hook line and sinker the "Gordon is our saviour" spin.
Then I heard you say the other day that the press are going to be jumping over themselves to get the first photo of the Gordon and Obama love it.
Labour even tried to bury Glenrothes as a news story behind the US election. Despite the IMF warning and massive interest rates cut - what is headline news on the BBC - yes "Labour Victory at Glenrothes"!!!!
The media should look to report the news, not write the news.
If the media carries on like this, we will be duped into electing the UK's equivalent of "4 more years of George W Bush".
The "media narrative" can go shoot itself in the head. It is going to take billions and a lot of pain and suffering to rescue the country post Labour.
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The whole Country is scared. The voters of Glenrothes are scared.
It seem 'extraordinary' to me that the news media are not able to pick up on the smell of fear in the Nation. Rather they would try to convince us that it is economic business as usual - what hypocrisy!
When we are scared we all run back to nanny for fear of something worse.
What we need is a National Government in this time of National Emergency.
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This by election proves that Fife in Scotland is split between SNP or Labour. We don't have the equivalent of SNP here in the south. There is no ENP.
This for me is the interesting point about this by election. It turned into an almost exclusively two-party fight. It highlights social and cultural differences between the north of Britain and the south, which make it, to my mind, even more important for representatives of all parties and politicians from all parts of the UK to be at Westminster.
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11. I have seen this behaviour at our elections here in N.W. London. It is the Asian population here who get their elderly, non-English speaking or understanding, relatives to put the cross where their English speaking relatives tell them to.
Disgusts me.
However, when my disabled wheelchair bound son who has his own views and mind of his own goes to vote the officers insist on taking him into the booth themselves and monitoring that he is voting of his own free will. (He tells us he votes Conservative, afterwards).
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It was a triumph for Brown (one cannot deny it - although with a greatly reduced majority, etc. etc.)
But it won't play like this nationwide. As economically things are going to get worse before they slowly get better, I guess that now is Brown's 'last best chance' to call a General Election. Luckily for us all he is a bottler.
BTW: After seven electioneering visits to Glenrothes, is Sarah Brown (aka the prop) now fair game?
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Ha ha,
loosing roughly half of your majority is now considered an 'bounce' for labour
wonder if it will encourage brown into giving everybody a say, but courage is something brown is decidedly lacking. He'll need more time to 'set out his vision'
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13. At 10:45am on 07 Nov 2008, Charles_E_Hardwidge wrote:
"Alex Salmond is just a political troll. He's very clever and persuasive but he sniffed his own gasses too much and imploded. People like this can look very strong and get a lot of attention but they're a little too bright and brittle. As people slowly caught up and developed their own view the wax holding his political wings on melted and he crashed to the earth."
You're getting them mixed up Alex Salmon is the SNP guy, it's Gordon Brown that you're thinking of.
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#14 jonathan_cook
Well said.
I watched the BBC this morning. So much air time given over to Labour's win at Glenrothes - in fact it was their top story. Would you really have devoted so much time to this if Labour had lost? Or would the election in Glenrothes have been wiped from our screens altogether?
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all the signs and words by Mr Brown point to a snap election-"we need a fresh Mandate"
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Labour winning in Glenrothes (and their 55%-35% and 6,000+ votes margin of victory) is unexpected to a degree.
* They faced strong competition from the SNP, who were confidently predicting they would win even as polling stations shut
* Many (including those right-winggers on this message board) were convinced Brown would get a deserved kicking from the electorate
But I would agree that it is Labour heartland territory, so not overly impressive
Then again, Henley-on-Thames was Conservative heartland territory, and Labour losing their deposit there was proof for many right-wingers that Brown was massively unpopular. Interesting that the Conservatives losing their deposit in a Labour hearland (and reducing their share of the vote) is no reflection on Cameron.
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Clearly not many people in Glenrothes have TV sets or internet access. If you spend all your time cashing government hand outs the real world is a distant place.
There was one Scottish guy interviewd on the news who intended to vote Labour because he was "Labour through and through and always would be"
There was no though process going on, just some kind of primative reflex.
One hand for cashing dole cheques, the other for putting a tick in the Labour box.
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Welcome back to the neutral ground Nick!
I'm glad you mentioned that Labour can not campaign every constituency like they have Glenrothes. Like people have said, everything but the sink was thrown at an area they had a 10,000 majority in.
So this does nothing to spoil my Friday!
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20. Rofl. Somebody needs to do their homework. I think you one can do a correspondence course in Politics and Economics and perhaps gain a Diploma - or is that in America? ROFL.
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Perhaps the reason people vote for Labour is because they have considered the alternative.
When the age of rampant market capitalism, introduced by Thatcher/Reagan has proven to be a mistake, the last thing we need is a Tory government.
New Labour needs to be more agressive and fight the "forces of conservatism".
That a caricature Tory toff such as 'Dave' Cameron - old Etonian etc... could be seen as the model for the 21st century is frightening. They are not called 'Conservatives' for nothing.
Bill McFadden
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What is "Extraordinary" is that there is not a single mention of the IMF's assertions that the looming recession that Britain is facing will be far worse than many other developed economies of the world, unless you count those stalwarts of sound financial accumen like Zimbabwe!
Not a single headline on the News Front Page, Business or Politics sections, that in fact Mssrs Brown and Darling et al have been lying through their teeth when repeating their mantra of Britain being best placed to withstand the global economic turmoil etc... Did I miss something during the bank shopping spree where the Government bought the BBC and is now dictating what gets reported in the State-owned media?!
The BBC gets all high and mighty about "balance" and libel on shows like Have I Got News For You, but seems to actively promote the Government without reproach.
I know all polititians try to avoid questions they don't like, but I have never seen one like Brown, who just constantly repeats the same statement in the hope that the question just goes away. His performances at PMQ's vs Cameron are woefull; just full of cheap remarks, dodgy statistics and sidestepping.
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Apparantly in Glenrothes they throw stones at the moon, and try to collect moonlight from puddles to light thier homes.
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It's funny seeing all the Tory boys roll up with their predictable lists of lies and negativity. Flanked by arrogant banks and a rise in bullying by bad management in the workplace, their ever weakening putsch continues.
The Tory classes created economic failure and keep trying to talk us into recession but people aren't buying it. In a similar way, I find the Tory talk just boring. Better Labour policies (and blogs) will focus people on success and that's where the money is.
I'm looking forward to Labour economic recovery sooner rather than later, and Labour blogs that have something genuine and meaningful to offer. It's just so much better than what the Tories have on show, and "Dave" and his pal "Guido" know it.
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Probably just a flash in the pan from a minor Scottish safe-Labour constutuency where the PM has some personal influence.
In other words, "it'll be allright on the night" and we'll soon be waving a cheery goodbye to NannyLand-NuLabour.
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Yesterday people complained that "not enough airtime" was being given to domestic politics. Today people are complaining that coverage is only being given because Labour won. Frankly, both are ridiculous.
Anyhow, Salmond lost, and I for one (a party member for another party) was cheering seeing the Troll stuffed. He's arrogrant and self-righteous, and worse he makes Brown look competent.
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The result is only extraordinary because commentators seem to have decided weeks ago how it would turn out, and didn't review their opinion in the light of significant and fast-changing events.
It doesn't seem that difficult to understand to me. Everyone knew it would be a Labour v SNP contest, hence the other parties' votes were squeezed. And the central argument and hence much of the essential appeal of the SNP has taken a catastrophic hit from the way the banking crisis is hitting smaller countries such as Iceland. Gordon Brown's local connections and higher global profile will have also contributed but I'd see these as secondary factors.
If I'm right then the read-across into English politics won't be nearly as significant....
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Many of the people in Glenrothes would vote Labour if the candidate was a goldfish! They are typical of the older Labour supporters who can't bring themselves to even think of changing their allegiances no matter what ruination Gordon Brown has brought upon us.
It was reported at the weekend that Gordon's raid on our pensions has cost EACH of us over £16,000 from our pensions.
He has presided over a disasterous decade of tax, borrow and spend and is in a large part, responsible for encouraging the irresponsibility of the Banks, by setting up the FSA without any real teeth. He is now motgaging our Children's future by borrowing even more money to try and prop up this failing economy.
The economy is the worst prepared of any of the developed countries to weather the looming recession according to the IMF, and the recession here will be deeper and more extended.
And STILL these Labour supporters turn out to vote for Brown the buffoon who has brought all this upon us.
What does hge have to do before these people realise he has led us all down the garden path and failed miserably?
GET RID OF HIM! HE IS A DISASTER!
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"I saw a teenage lad being taken to vote by his dad for the first time, and his dad was explaining what to do.
You put a cross here where it says Labour, and then another cross here where it says Labour. he said."
Then the Presiding Officer should have been sacked for not preserving the secrecy of the ballot.
I for one would never have allowed this.
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An 8% swing away from labour is plenty enough to see them out of power in a General Election.
It was about time they managed to defend a heartland, Even Maggies Torys managed to once in a while.
If the best they can do in such a heartland is an 8% swing away from them they are in it up past their ears.
Auntie Beeb can spin it all they like but it is still a swing away from Labour in an area where they are going to be able to do their absolute best.
The real political analysts inside the Labour party will now know that the game is up. It will be no good going to the polls early and it will be no good going late. They know that the next election is lost now.
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@27
Well done Bill. I see you took my advice yesterday and managed to get "toff" into your post today.
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so they won this by-election will they win a general election?
yes they will becouse they can not afford to loose.
neu labour will march ever onward in power crushing those opponents who dare to rise against them.
the people will be happy and free of high taxation or stealth taxes under neu labour they will resolve the growing issues of housing, ecconomy, and conflicts abroad earning the unending gratitude of the huddled masses.
as the neu labour government rules with a fairness unheard of the people will liken there leaders to gods and they will be listened to and obeyed without question.
all other parties and world leaders will look in envy of the neu labour government and its handeling of our ecconomy and our living standard. even europe will come to accept that neu labour is better than what they have devised and give themselves over to its power.
then neu labour will find a cure for cancer erradicate crime and make every one happy.
only one problem with this vision corrupt and untrustworthy neu labour members have already stopped any chance of neu labour being anything but a poor footnote in the grand scheem of it all.
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#30 CEH
I'm looking forward to Labour economic recovery sooner rather than later........
It's not going to be sooner, Charles. Exactly how long have you got?
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The Brown Bounce is real?
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I'm confused. The Labour Party were really expected to hold this seat, werent they?
So how can you give them credit when they have held on to a safe Labour seat?
Perhaps if they'd won a seat of the SNP, Tories then the statement may be correct!
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#5 getridofgordonnow: "Very strange; I don't understand it"
Being only somewhat flippant, I think that has been obvious for some time - not just grogn, but a number likeminded folk on here.
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30. Charles_E_Hardwidge
Perhaps I've missed it, but hasn't Labour been in power since 1997? Arguably they have been in power since 1992
How can the Tory classes have created the economic failure? We haven't had a sniff of power until this year...
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Ha ha ha
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#38 delminister
...sounds just like Communism to me......:-)
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This truly is a real bonus for Labour, although whether it was as unexpected (to them) as they have been making out is, I suspect, doubtful. Nevertheless, they will now be on defcon 4 for an election early next year.
We can therefore look forward to Pravda running many more stories along the lines of "nine out of ten people are so happy with life they'd really rather just make Gordon Brown PM for life", and "so many people are in favour of ID cards they're going to have to start introducing them early to cope with the rush".
You may also be assured that as and when any bank/building society lowers its lending rates, this will be reported as them finally bending to government pressure. Bad news, such as rising unemployment, increasing business failures or repossessions will be introduced as "further evidence of the global financial meltdown".
It is, I am afraid, a simple truth that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them, and winning the propaganda war is central to any campaign, hence welcome back Pete & Ali. If you thought the quality of reporting on the Beeb was bad before, you ain't seen nothing yet.
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I found that as the Tories rose up the polls and sniffed power they stopped discussing things reasonably and being polite. The mask off nasty party and their Thatcherite economics slipped. So, I think, you're right. We don't need that.
I can accept some good things happened during the Thatcher years but some of those would've happened anyway. Plus, they created some very hurtful recessions and we're still dealing with their legacy as this latest crisis shows.
Personally, I don't believe this recession will be that long or deep but it would be longer and, certainly, deeper under the Tories. R&D and jobs are where it's at and they have no answer to that beyond cut, cut, cut. Well, I ain't living through that again. No, sir.
I think, it's going to take another 30 years of Labour before the Tories and their big business pals have truly reformed: the failed habit patterns and tribalism are just etched too deep. They're damaged people and need that time to discover their humanity.
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Are we all that surprised?
It was only the SNP that told us it was in the bag. They seem to have been taking by-election lessons from the Lib-Dems; namely, talk up your prospects to the point where you believe them but nobody else quite understands.
The moral in this is don't believe your own propaganda. Scottish nationalism has been a busted flush for ages as it has no economic policy; not even the gibberish that was conjured up to look like an economic policy.
As for a Brown bounce; this does not look like one. It looks more like a case of times being a bit dodgy so let's cleave to the devil we know for fear of making matters worse whilst keeping our options open.
Quite a good idea: shrewd folk these Fifers.
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I've just listened to that whinger Alex Salmond at a press conference ... so, Labour won Glenrothes because they duped people with scaremongering tactics. What does that say about the voters of Glenrothes? That they're easily scared ? That they're too dim to spot a pack of lies when it's told to them ? I think not.
I think the majority of Scots, in Glenrothes and elsewhere, can recognise a busted flush when they spot one ... and that's Alex Salmond. ... oh, and I see the Tory candidate lost their deposit... no time for novices, eh ?
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The absolute snobbery on this board towards the voters of Glenrothes is amazing and is a serious reason to rethink voting for the Tories at the next election.
If people seriously believe that someone would vote Labour because they are on the dole then they are living on another planet, more than a touch of sour grapes!
They voted Labour because they had a look at the alternatives!....whatever you think of how the economy got here, who would you rather rely on to get us out of this and help the average family.....someone who knows about finance and the way economies work or a Tory school boy who has as much clue as the posters here.
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#36
I have to confess to ignorance here - I don't understand how they calculate the figures on swings in elections.
Looking at the results
General Election, May 2005
Labour - 19,395 (51%)
SNP - 8,731 (23.4%)
Lib Dem - 4,728 (12.7%)
Conservative - 2,651 (7.1%)
Others - 1,861 (5%)
Turnout - 37,366 (56.1%)
Labour Majority - 10,664 (28.5%)
By-Election, November 2008
Labour - 19,946 (55.1%)
SNP - 13,209 (36.5%)
Conservative - 1,381 (3.8%)
Lib Dem - 947 (2.6%)
Others - 712 (2.1%)
Turnout - 36,219 (52.4%
Labour Majority - 6,737 (18.6%)
Labour's share of the vote went up, so I don't understand why it is a swing against them.
There was certainly a swing away from the Conservatives (almost halving their share of the vote) and the Lib Dems (receiving 20% of their 2005 share of the vote), towards the SNP. I suspect this is partly due to tactical voting on the part of Lib Dems and Conservative voters.
But, I repeat, Labour's share went up. How is it a swing against them? More a small swing towards them, surely?
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The real political analysts inside the Labour party will now know that the game is up. It will be no good going to the polls early
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Labour's best hope is to go to the polls now. I say this as somebody who wants them to remain until 2010 not because I'm a Labour supporter but because by then it should be apparent to even the doziest of voters (and Glenrothes shows there is no shortage of them) that we are in a crushing recession and we were marched in here by Labour.
Labour's long-term political survival is best served by losing now rather than getting annihilated in 2010. If they go now, today, they will manage to avoid that all-important second quarter of 'negative growth'. Ten years from now, when the electorates memory has faded a little, they'll be able to claim that the didn't have a recession on their watch. They'll be able to claim that it was the Tories that 'brought us into recession'.. And don't worry - that is exactly what they will be claiming. Even as now they are blaming the UK recession and house price boom/bust on the Americans and the banks. And Margaret Thatcher.
Gordon Brown got what he wanted. He got to be PM. He successfully (in his own mind at least) managed to convince the BBC that he saved the world with his economic plan. Nicked wholesale from the guys at Standard Chartered.
In his own world he's a self-proclaimed brilliant success. He can be content with that. Labour can get out of the house and leave the Tories/whoever to try and put out the fire he lit on the sofa, the bed, the wastepaper bin and the bath filled with petrol. Metaphorically speaking.
Leave it for the next generation of economically dyspraxic politicians to screw it all up again in ten years time.
The truly sad thing is that it would have been easier to get it right. If he'd done nothing for the past ten years he couldn't have done a worse job. He had to actually go out of his way to screw things up so badly.
That is what is so dispiriting.
It's like when your striker is passed a ball two yards out in front of an open goal and instead of just side-footing it in he takes an extravagant swing and either misses totally or hoiks it over the bar.
Every day. For ten years.
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#35 Agreed, but I doubt it would have happened, and unfortunately one vote would never make a difference here.
I was at school here in 1990 the day that Maggie resigned and the teachers in every class practically threw a party for the rest of the day. Labour voting is like an inbuilt response round here and I still to this day don't understand it.
Still, I can't wait for the general election...
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A sad day. It would have been nice to see Labour getting a kicking. I can only assume that, accepting that the voters of Glenrothes are not terminally stupid, they came to the conclusion that all the other parties are just as bad as Labour.
What a shame we don't have a choice of politicians who we can actually believe in, but the sad fact is that we don't.
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#24 CablesMartial
"There was no though process going on, just some kind of primative reflex.
One hand for cashing dole cheques, the other for putting a tick in the labour box"
Of course your primitive reflex (note correct spelling) is to not vote labour whatever happens, hypocritical behaviour at best.
You seem to imply that the majority of people in Glenrothes are unemployed, while not actually providing any figures, this primitive reflex to blame all of your problems on the unemployed comes not from your original thought processes but lifted directly from the pages of the Daily Mail.
well, a quick google, and...
"Glenrothes' economy is currently strong with unemployment levels in line with the Scottish average. Glenrothes provides the highest number of jobs (approx 36,000) of any single settlement in Fife"
with unemployment in scotland running at 6% that kinda rains on your parade doesn't it ?. tut, tut, maybe you should have gone with the "immigrants being told how to vote by relatives" argument like others on here. personally I admire your restraint in rejecting the Racist viewpoint but you still need to apologise to the hard working voters in Glenrothes.
Camerons new election slogan "Vote Tory, because we are really, really bad losers"
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Salmond lost, and I for one (a party member for another party) was cheering seeing the Troll stuffed. He's arrogrant and self-righteous, and worse he makes Brown look competent.
Oh yeah. It's not all bad news. Nobody deserves to be stuffed more than Alex Samond. Except Gordon Brown. It was the Dunfermline by-election that gave the best result. The Lib-Dems came from nowhere to stuff the pair of arrogant wasters.
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Fully deserved win. Tory vote derisory. If the Conservatives had offered any sort of insights and solutions to the economic problems of the moment surely they should have got more than 1,381 votes!
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Gordon Brown is calling this by-election result a 'vote of confidence' in his handling of the economy. Typically arrogant platitude from a career politician whose grip on reality is feather light. And Hazel 'Squeak' Blears is surprised that her and her ilk are held in such pitiable contempt.
As a wise man once said, 'I fart in their general direction.'
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Re #9
Excellent post. I can't disagree with the list and yet theres an opportunity for blog monitor Hazel Blears to add in her list of achievements as a counter argument, let me think...
multicultural integration and cheeriness
free stuff for the scots not the english
prudence and definitely not a novice
for every british born emigrator going out there are 4 unskilled cleaners coming in
We should be duly proud, and thank the people of glenrothes for their insight into returning the only part worth voting for (not)
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Brown bounce uh... what a bounce that was, wasn't there a swing to SNP of nearly 5% and where was the other 47.66% of the votes, obviously they didn't care a toss, did you overlook this - we'll see what happens in the General Election... pure political and media hype.
OK, OK it was a bounce, Gordon brown and Co are so confident that they are running scared of a General election and so scared of losing their seats, ask the back bencher's not one is confident.... now bring on the spin bowling!
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'the unaccountable and unquestioned Mrs Brown visiting seven times (or more?)'
since when did a labour member and party activist need to be accountable? what of the hundreds of others working in the campaign? she has as much of a right to be there. the tories on this message board need to stop nitpicking about labours campaign and tell us all why the 'alternative' would be better for us. that is why labour won! they have performed badly, but the alternatives have not set out in real terms how they would be better
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Nick
First a declaration of interest. I don't want am independent Scotland and was glad to see SNP getting a bloody nose.
However, in terms of analysing the result, it's not easy to work whether you have been duped by the Labour machine or are part of it.
The Labour campaign was ruthlessly and very narrowly focused on the perfomance of the local council and its leader - who just happened to the SNP candidate. They were less than wholly honest in condemning the council for charges which had been introduced in many other councils - including Labout led. But, hey, politics is a dirty game where honesty is seemingly a unaffordable luxury. And SNP are no political virgins.
BUT - post the campaign and the result, history is instantly rewritten. The major reason for the result, we are told, was Brown's handling of the economic crisis and the associated Brown bounce. Come on !
Standards are slipping in politics. We demand a return to the days of credible lies.
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@46
Chas you are as deluded as the great leader.
30 years of nulabour and there would be no country left to govern.
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Crikey, that didn't take long. In an article entitled "More people and firms going bust" on the Business section of this website, detailing that 26% more firms are now being liquidated than a year ago, we are soberly informed:
"The rising trend started this year as the economy started to slowdown under the impact of the credit crunch."
Thank goodness for that. For a horrible moment I thought it might be the government's fault.
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@49
Mark you haven't visited many council estates have you?
Amongst the client class there is very much a I vote labour because my dad did and his dad did etc.
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#49
I'll definitely go for the guy "who knows about finance and the way economies work".
Who is he?
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Initially I was with everyone else forecasting a Labour defeat on the scale of Glasgow East. However, the last month has seen some dramatic developments economically.
I have had some admiration for how Brown has handled this (and yes, it really does pain me to admit that). He has taken action and convinced other leaders to follow his lead, including the US; no mean feat.
That's not to say that I believe his actions were right; quite the contrary. I think he has dug us into a very big hole, and in time we will realise he's made our lot much worse than it would have been.
But for all that the markets do seem to have settled down, and the crisis looks to have been averted (at least for now).
Rather than view the voters of Glenrothes as fools who aren't up on current affairs, I am inclined to think the opposite.
Their choice was between Labour or SNP. An independent Scotland would have been in a sorry state without London's gold to bail out RBS and HBOS. So they stuck with what they know.
Brown's blocked the knockout punch, but he's still on the ropes.
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Many are attempting to downplay Labour's success by pointing to the reduced majority. Can any who have done this tell me how many mid-term by-elections have resulted in an increased majority for the party of government? (I can't remember any, but I guess there must have been ?)
Its as disingenuous as pointing to the Tory lost deposit to make a case that Cameron peaked too soon!
The fact is a few weeks ago Labour looked to be heading for meltdown, this result would indicate otherwise and gives them something to build from and, perhaps more importantly, a morale boost to its activists and supporters.
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Nick, if you're serious that everybody, including many Labour MPs, were expecting Labour to lose this seat then perhaps we should investigate the count... Is there any way of verifying the postal votes? I mean, Labour have form in rigging these... don't they?
I found it interesting that yesterday the BBC decided to wait till after 10pm to report the IMF's findings that Britain is the worse placed economically when compared to the rest of the developed world... why was that?
It's no surprise that the BBC is spinning this result as a vote of confidence in Brown, but may I suggest that if he wants the public to show him what we think of him, he calls a general election, now.
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This government has got to go. I'll not bang on about the economy, because the only people that can be unaware of what is going on at the moment are the hoards of incapacity claimants with their guaranteed income and free cars. Have a look at this excellent article;
http://www.lgcplus.com/Analysis/2008/11/look_at_the_bigger_picture.html
Our public services are tied up in knots of paperwork and targets and inspection. Billions are spent on feeding the beast. Fact - the government have retained their 'new houses built' target, even though they know fine well nobody is building houses. The inspection Gestapo - Audit Commission, CSCI, Ofstead etc. - is populated by people who couldn't get proper jobs elsewhere, and they harangue public sector officials to the point of despair. I'll say it again - billions are tied in recording and monitoring PSA'a, LAA's, MAA's, Use of Resources blah blah blah, and then sending out failed 'policy officers' who can only get a job at the Audit Commission to inspect them. Surely its time for the audit commission to get back in its box and just audit accounts? They'll say that they have driven improvment, becuse everybody is scoring higher - 4 stars here, 3 stars there. But what's that noise? - public satisfaction is dropping like a stone. Public sector bodies 'need to examine the reasons why publci satisfaction is not high' say the Commission at the end of their reports, after awarding 4 stars for performance. It's bleeding obvious - the whole framework has got Council's, Hospitals, Police etc. DOING THE WRONG THINGS VERY WELL. Sorry for shouting, but its insane! There is absolutely no room for innovation. Read the article again.
Like I said, the economic woe is a major factor that is being debated widely, but for the way that this government has systematically turned our public services into a stalinistic 5 year planning regime that delivers what the government and its inpspectors want, but not what the people want, it needs to be booted out now.
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It's hardly a triumph for Labour to hold on to a safe Labour seat in Brown's backyard in what is probably the most Labour orientated area in Scotland . The SNP hoped and thought they could win , but were out campaigned and demonised by the media and the Labour election machine over local issues which, as has been pointed out have no bearing on Westminster.However if the SNP can cut Labour's majority almost in half in what is a seat Labour should not lose, then I suspect the Tories will destroy Labour in England at the next election when the only issue will be Labour's incompetence and the destruction of the economy. There are, many other seats in Scotland where Brown's stock is much lower and these seats may very well fall to the SNP or to the other parties , and there will be a lot of Scottish Labour MPs looking ahead to life on the dole.
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Plus, they created some very hurtful recessions and we're still dealing with their legacy as this latest crisis shows.
Tsk. ANd there was me thinking Gordon Brown and Labour had been in power for a decade. And now you're trying to spin that Margaret Thatcher is still in power and it's a Tory recession. You watch too much BBC. Labour has been in since 1997. They've been bragging about 15 years of continuous growth. Looks like it was all on borrowed money after all.
Who borrowed all the money? Gordon Brown. Labour recession. Labour's fault.
Personally, I don't believe this recession will be that long or deep but it would be longer and, certainly, deeper under the Tories.
We may get every chance to see that shortly too. This recession is just getting started. Gordon will, either in a typical fit of hubris (because he's actually insane enough to believe he can win it) or party loyalty (saddle the Tories with the worst of the impending economic Armageddon) go to the country and get swept away.
Timing his exit nicely to avoid the second quarter of nailed on 'negative growth' and leaving others to take the blame for the second, third, fourth, fifth etc etc quarters of negative growth. The political equivalent of declaring bankrupcy. Run up all your debts without a care in the world and then just walk away.
It really doesn't matter who is in power for the next five or ten years. Gordon Brown has buried the economy. He didn't even mark the grave. The short-term 'fix' to defer an even worse disaster is to print money and let inflation run rampant so that's what Labour will do. Possibly the Tories too.
This is not going to end well.
I just want to see the architect of all this (Gordon Brown) brought to (at least) electoral justice and ideally jailed. Without charge. Indefinitely. See how he likes it.
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re: 36, pot_kettle
Today is quite a sad day
For the Scots have been led astray,
Brown pulled out all the stops
(But his 'family aren't props'*)
Let's hope he thinks things are going his way!
But we can take comfort in knowing
That in spite of Nu-Labour's crowing
With an eight percent swing
We can finally sing
That in 2010 Nu-Lab are going!
*Except Sarah that is!
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By the way, for anyone who hasn't seen the IMF's growth predictions for 2009 (and if you rely on the BBC for your news, you won't have), here they are:
China +8.5%
Russia +3.5%
Brazil +3.0%
East Euro +2.5%
Canada +0.3%
Mexico +0.9%
Japan -0.2%
France -0.5%
Euro Zone -0.5%
Italy -0.6%
Britain -1.3
So, why has Brown and Labour been constantly lying to us about being "best placed" to whether this financial crisis? Why have the media & the BBC not held them to account...??
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Instead of blogs please could the BBC give us some real fairy tales, I mean the ones without spin that tell things as they are. To start us off I'd suggest "The Emperor's New Clothes".
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Gordon Brown is taking this as a "vote of confidence", and presumably assumes endorsement for more of the same.
More deluded nonsense.
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Bring on the general election, then we will all know how popular Gordon Brown is.
Snowballs chance in hell sums it up.
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It is high time that mr. Brown and his government should show some humility and start ''growing up''! His success in this by-election does not reflect the mood of the whole country. Should he go to the people they will rightly say : please resign ! you made a mess over the last 10 years, you came into power on a high and there was never any truth in the actions the govermnment have taken.
How can this government look itself in the mirror and sleep at night when their legacy is covered with dead bodies, misery, financial ruin, lies, lies and damned lies, they should have the decency to resign, slash their remuneration to an acceptable level (they work (from 9 till 5 - have a lot of holidays and a final salary pension) - the workers have to pay for their cosy life when they are unable to take any responsibility for their actions. Shame on this government - shame on the labour MP's!
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People seem to be overlooking that this was about Labour v the SNP. By-elections always bring out the protest vote and here you have two parties that are in power, one in Westminster, the other in Edinburgh and the local council.
So, Glenrothes voters dislike their experience of SNP rule more than they dislike their experience of Labour rule. This means nothing for the rest of the country. If it's a bounce it's very much of the "dead cat" variety.
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I like that slogan.
Vote Tory because we're VERY, VERY, VERY, VERY Bad Loosers!
Oh and do we really have to hand back our depost..dont you know 'call me Dave' will be angry.
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1) Brown told the scots that they need English money to subsidise their banking jobs.
2) Labour tells Glenrothians that SNP stopped them increasing thier subsidy from other scots (the SNP froze council tax and spending).
It seems pretty clear that the Glenrothians voted for their wallets.
Wallets that are substantially filled with other taxpayers money - just the way gordon likes it.
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#60 modernunionist
I think what Cameron and co have been telling us is that they would have regulated a lot more.
They were warning over the past few years about how bank deregulation had gone too far, and how the Government needed to take the tough decision to re-regulate, even if that meant City firms leaving for Frankfurt, Shanghai and New York. The loss of jobs, they continually told the Government, was worth the extra benefits Government regulation could brink. The Government has a far better idea of what the risk of toxic sub-prime US assets and associated securities than the free-market. Why didn't Brown listen when Cameron told him that "the market doesn't know best - the Government should regulate a lot harder"?
Conservatives warned that the massive bonuses received by bankers were unmerited and it was all a mirage, and urged Labour to tax them harder. They argued it was quite right for Labour to intervene in this way, and that they should force these reforms past City and Media interest groups, and ignore those who would call this the politics of envy.
Conservatives warned house prices were too high, and urged Government action to reduce them, by taking a greater role in approving mortgage loans that banks gave, by increasing tax on housing transactions (e.g. stamp duty) to dampen speculative demand, and charging capital gains tax on housing.
Why didn't Brown listen to Cameron. What a disaster.
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That's a very good point.
Another one I picked up for people questioning Labour's success is that Labour's recovery is better than anything Thatcher did during her worst moment and better even than Blair at his most popular.
Salmond tried to game the system and Cameron has lied like a rug, but people cut through that and voted on reality. The arrogance and naivety of the SNP and Tories backfired. Hurrah.
It's straying off the turf a bit but when I was a child my family doctor was a Scot. He was of the old school; a bit flinty but very sociable. I like what Scots like that bring to the union. So, this is one pleased puppy.
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By the way Nick
Wasn't it Yesterday that Mandleson was in the lords being questioned about his time with his yacht owning friend?
Anything you'd like to say about it ?
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Just when is the BBC going to fall out of love with Brown? When are your reports going to become impartial again (as they are supposed to be)?
Our economy is in free-fall, yet all you have reported on for the last week was the election in the U.S. Minimal mentions of our economy; bankruptcies, job losses, IMF reports etc.
How are the people of Glenrothes, or anywhere else supposed to know whats happening in the UK if you don't report it?
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#51 U9461192: It's like when your striker is passed a ball two yards out in front of an open goal and instead of just side-footing it in he takes an extravagant swing and either misses totally or hoiks it over the bar.
Don't remind me of Chris Iwelumo, I'm depressed enough as it is ;o)
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Sorry Nick, Gordon Brown is not a "born and bred Fifer". He was born in Govan, which is still part of Glasgow as far as I know!
Yours, Andrew (born and bred Fifer, now sadly a long way from his beloved Glenrothes!)
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"It was never before thought helpful for leaders in trouble to organise a global economic crisis. "
Thank you Nick for confirming what we suspected it's Gordon's fault hopefully it is now BBC policy to point this out every time he says global.
I understand Milliband told the Turkish Minister that this was a vote for confidence in Gordon.This leads me to wonder if the Turks think he's in trouble shouldn't we all be very worried.
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Please Gordon see this as a green light for an election Please!!!!
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There are some pretty ignorant posts appearing here about the people in Glenrothes.
Losing a relatively safe seat is unlikely. If it had been lost then we would be talking about the end of Brown. As it happens, it was held and because Brown survives, people have posted some pretty negative comments about the voters.
Brown will have a lot more challenges in the next two years.
Instead of people complaining that the voters of Glenrothes have not followed their wishes, they should be demanding that the party that they want to see in government, takes a stronger position in promoting their views.
Instead of the current government losing the election, opposition parties should have to win it.
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In the end the economy won't recover until confidence returns. It won't return until the public are confident that they know the problems are fixed. They won't know that until they know exactly what went wrong.
If the problems were all "global" then they could be global again.
Once they look into why the UK was so exposed by bad regulation and encouraging risky behaviour amongst the banks then Gordon Brown will look like a dodgey car salesman who has been caught out.
Actually I always thought he was a decent man in the wrong job at the wrong time. Now I think he has no conscience and will put the party before the country every time no matter how serious the problems. I hope that is how history judges him.
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(they work (from 9 till 5 - have a lot of holidays and a final salary pension)
The problem is that they don't have nearly enough holidays. I'd cheerfully pay them to take the next five years off. They couldn't do a worse job than they have been doing.
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#61 Only jocking
Yours is, I think, the only post here which shows understanding of the dynamic in Glenrothes - though I would have preferred a different result!
It was an extremely clever Labour campaign.
The September and October Scottish YouGov polls identified the area of slipping support for the SNP in a financial crisis - younger female voters. Normal political assumptions would be that this group are more nervous of changes that might affect the family.
Whether or not, Labour picked up on that or not, they hammered home fears on care of the elderly and education.
Of course, they were unfair charges, but the SNP should have been prepared for it - it's a tactic they've used themselves with great success previously!
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Today doesn't mark a new dawn for Labour and Gordon Brown....
However, it certainly has sparked people's attention. The progressive movement is not dead, and the New Labour campaign machine might just have rediscovered its mojo.
A couple of points: Firstly, for those disparaging the people of Glenrothes as benefit scroungers and simple minded fools - go ahead, keep on down this route. Keep displaying the level of south-east arrogance and ignorance that turned the country against you in 97.
You'll actually find the people of Glenrothes to be hard working, relatively well-off and solidly educated. Fifers are a canny and enterprising breed. Some of their famous sons have certainly done alright for themselves - Adam Smith and Andrew Carnegie for starters.
Secondly, Cameron and the Tories seemed to have taken Labour's demise for granted. However, with Brown's handling of the crisis, the return of the Prince (as de facto deputy prime minister), the election of Obama, and now a boost from the heartlands; things are not as straightforward for the media-appointed Prime Minister-elect...
Look out for the old Tory divisions starting to emerge, as well as doubts about whether this over-privileged, pale imitation of Blair has a solid enough chin for what might just become a proper contest over the next eighteen months (assuming a 2010 showdown).
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what a week!
Obama wins the US election and Labour win Glenrothes with an increased number of voters. My cup runneth over.
I love all the messages complaining about the BBC giving too much time to the by-election and saying everyone knew ages ago Labour would win.
3 days ago the same people were complaining that the BBC were not giving it enough coverage and that Labour would lose.
And please stop the tired old lies about media bias. Brown has been crucified in nearly every newspaper for a year now.
This is the start of the comeback. The electorate know Cameron cannot handle the economy and Brown can.
Oh and the best, the very best bit of this glorious week? The tories lost their deposit.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
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I'm glad Glenrothes was a smack in the face for the SNP and the Conservative party, not because I am Labour but because I have had enough of "get Brown at any cost."
It is not my idea of being British at this time.
Whoever had been in power at this time would have been met with the same trials and tribulations created by the greedy and disgusting speculation by the banks.
This is wake up time and time people accepted this.
It is no use bemoaning ones lot, look around, look at yourself and decide what you can of your own volition do to make things a little better to get yourself out of the hole you are in. No one owes you a living of your choice, Pride has no place in the current scheme of things nor has party politics - for Christ sake get a grip - I am making my Christmas presents, what are you doing?
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It is tempting to pull one from the standard politicians toolkit and say something like :
'By-elections come and by-elections go'.
But this poster tries not to sink to the level of yer bog-standard politician so I'll try something different.
The front page of this mornings BBC News website had an item about "More people and firms going bust ... There has been a sharp rise in the number of people and companies being declared insolvent in England and Wales, government figures show."
Spotted anything yet?
England and Wales.
Because Scotland is another country, complete with its own legal system and Parliament.
One day my politically apathetic fellow English people will wake up to this.
PS. Old nat - thanks for your kind comments earlier - I am visiting the capital of your fine country this weekend and will be asking local Scots about the Glenrothes result/Salmond/SNP.
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Thank goodness that sanity has prevailed, and the grim reality of the worldwide economic downturn has outweighed the 'Little Scotlander' nonsense which the SNP represents. When push comes to shove, the sensible folk of Fife rejected all the kilted carpetbagging and chose dour, dull Gordon's candidate.
Great news!
Bob Shaw
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Nick,
So you were in Scotland for a couple of days. How this gives you any expertise to comment on the politics of Scotland, heaven knows. Having wrongly identified the place of birth for Brown, it is not surprising that you were unable to pinpoint his place or time of death (politically speaking of course).
So long as Brown has control of the levers to the economy, no opposition party can demonstrate that they would be more competent than the incumbents. However, I find it more than a bit rich, that the Beeb allows the culprit so much leeway and good faith when the economic downturn is discussed.
If you were doing your job, you would have pinned him down on the poor state of the UK economy relative to our partners and competitors, the real level of debt, and his inability to have taken a 'prudent' approach to the economy in better times. The fact that he is allowed to blame it all upon the global downturn with minimal fuss from the Beeb says it all. 'Didn't I do well' says Brown during the good times, and, 'it's all the fault of the Americans' when times are bad, is infantile, yet you lap it up.
By the way, can you get over calling HBoS and RBS Scottish Banks as they are plainly UK banks based in Scotland. If a UK bank goes under, it won't just be the Scots who are affected.
Finally, I would like to add my voice to the clamour for a General Election now. If there truly is a Brown revival, and we are all so enamoured by Labour, surely he won't hang around until 2010? On the other hand......
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It never ceases to amaze me,that whenever the Labour Party does well the Tory sycophants flood these comment sections with bile and over the top language. Get it through your thick skulls your party is a dead parrot you have missed the boat and when we have a general election your mob will be trounced
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Perhaps Dave is not such a vote magnet as he thought he was. I also see that even the Tories now think Good Time George is a political liability. Surely there are other Old Etonians left on the Tory Backbenches who could do an adequate job as shadow chancellor and avoid palling around with Russian Oligarchs.
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@93 and others
I think you are over blowing the significance to the Conservatives.
They would have been expecting to lose their deposit as voters moved to the SNP.
This was a classic two way fight with bystanders.
The Labour party machine in head office will know that to return a reduced majority in a seat of this profile is a disaster.
That the SNP increased its share of the vote despite the failure of the Scottish banks is commenable because their Devolution boat was holed below the water and is foundering.
I Hope Gordon is as deluded as his rhetoric sounds and that he thinks he has had a vote of confidence and can safely go to the rest of the country now. I think the rest of the party machine know better and wont let an election happen.
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interesting moderation when post 99 Labour supporting gets allowed through before 95-98 presumably less supportive of the government.
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#80 Balhamu
Conservatives warned house prices were too high, and urged Government action to reduce them, by taking a greater role in approving mortgage loans that banks gave, by increasing tax on housing transactions (e.g. stamp duty) to dampen speculative demand, and charging capital gains tax on housing.
I believe John Redwood was warning of the dangers of rocketing house prices and how this 'economic miracle' was all an illusion built on borrowed money. And so was I.
Michael Howard took Gordon to task when he was (briefly) opposition leader about the 'borrow and squander' chancellor.
This really does all stem from the government borrowing too much money. If Labour had attempted to balance the budget by either not borrowing so much money or raising taxes then there wouldn't have been so much 'spare' money washing around the system. People cannot bid up the price of houses so much if they don't have the money in the first place.
A million extra make-weight government jobs that have actually resulted in a decrease in productivity in the NHS would not be competing for the available housing.
Maybe they were on balance, second jobs in the household or whatever. But the point is that all that extra borrowing capacity conjured out a raft of borrowed government money significantly increased the demand for the available housing. If taxes had gone up to fund that million non-jobs then house prices couldn't have taken off anything like as meteorically.
It's the law of unintended consequences although since it's such an obvious first-order consequence it'll just have to be lumped in with all the other governmental negligences.
It is no coincidence that house price inflation really took off in 2001 when Gordon Brown began his public service recruitment campaign. Two-thirds of a million folk plucked from obscurity and given a cast-iron job, cast-iron salary and cast iron pension. That was the day to increase interest rates and balance the budget. All that extra money was only ever going to go one place.
A bigger house to reflect their new status as either a) employed or b)both employed. Ooooh, I've always wanted a bigger house and now we can afford one...
And as everybody else was forced to compete with all this borrowed money it became a self-reinforcing bubble. And as everybodies house 'went up' in value and interest rates were kept artificially low to support the bubble more and more folk saw no harm at all in remortgaging themselves a few 10,000's quid for a new car/foreign holiday.
And Gordon Brown just looked the other way. Basking in the reflected glow of all that borrowed cash. Prudent chancellor, me.
ANd when the borrowing had to stop. As it surely did. You can't just borrow money for ever and the banks are bust and it all has to be paid back what is his solution? Slash interest rates (fair enough - the damage is done - no point making folks mortgage payments any higher) and try and coerce the banks to lend even more money.
Oh come on.
It was lending all this money at low interest rates without a care about where it was coming from or how it would be paid back that got us here.
I hope it's just political posturing by Brown and Darling about passing on rates and encouraging the banks to get back to 2007 levels of borrowing. Surely the 'cure' for a decade of ruinous debt levels is not more debt.
Surely the right thing to do is draw in our belts and pay off this debt and resolve not to make the same mistake again? Surely what we need is honesty.
Okay, blame the yanks and the banks if it makes you feel better but please don't claim that the way out of this orgy of debt is more borrowing. But that's what they're seriously proposing. They spent their way into this recession and they're going to spend their way out of it.
Weimar republic, here we come.
All I'm asking for is honesty. And that is clearly too much to ask from this government.
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re: 94 The Notting Hill Hammer
"The electorate know Cameron cannot handle the economy and Brown can"
Do they?
Maybe the people of Glenrothes think that, but when the IMF says that the UK is the worst run economy in the developed world and have been warning labour for years that they were running the economy into the ground and also that they were helping to create a massive global economic disaster over the last few years, then as a voter I tend to think that it's Brown who can't handle the economy.
If we had a general election then perhaps we'd find out what the electorate think.
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The reason Labour won was because the opposition at Westminster is the most useless in living memory. Membership of the thuggish Bullingdon Club ( Cameron and Osborne) is not likely to produce politicians with the knowledge and experience required for dealing with international economic problems.
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@97
Bob why do you and Bill McFadden both put your name at the bottom of your posts.
Surprisingly you both have similar veiws as well.
Dont let Auntie Hazel catch you blogging she doesnt approve you know.
And registering two accounts would be tantamount to treason
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@100
Sorry you didnt metion "toff" Bill learned yesterday that to get paid you have to mention the T word.
Back to uncle Derek's blog school
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If anything was predictable it was that the SNP's air was a touch hotter than many had suspected. Nicola Sturgeon on 'Today', savouring the sweet scent of failure, at one point blamed Labour for effective campaigning.
Any SNP win, its significance and likelihood being well over-hyped, would have been as remarkable as Labour's is said to be, the latter evidently likely to be exaggerated. One further prediction we can make is that an independent Scotland, whatever that now means, would be a Labour Scotland.
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You'll actually find the people of Glenrothes to be hard working, relatively well-off and solidly educated.
If you say so. I used to live in Fife. An awful place. But Glenrothes is the administrative centre of Fife. Many of those 'employed' will be rock-solid Labour-voting council workers, NHS employees etc. Ten years of Labour largesse and borrowed money have indeed been good to them. Even in a down-turn their jobs and salaries are safe thanks to the Scottish block grant.
Hence the difference in voting patterns between Glenrothes and Dunfermline when they (we at the time) had our by-election. The big employer in Dunfermline is still the council but the election co-incided with the closure of the local printer assembler, Lexmark. 700 jobs lost.
Glenrothes doesn't have those worries.
But yep. Still a very bad result for the SNP. And a very bad result for those hoping to see the end of this most lamentable government.
Tragic even.
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Ah yes, aniother day another set of grim statistics to testify to Gordon Brown's crushing of the economy and balhamu's delusion.
Personal insolvencies up 8.8% Q/Q to 27,087... way above the level they peaked under the tories at 10,000 in 1993 but nonetheless still rising and predicted to go beyond 140,000 per annum in 2010.
No wonder when the level of personal debt to household income has risen to an astonishing 180%... an all time high. Above the peak under the tories at 100%, above the Eu average at 100% and still above the Americans at 140%.
This was a boom built on credit and Gordon Brown might have well as signed every cheque that got us here when he deregualted the banking system and allowed the wholesale credit markets to rip.
Still, we can wait for balhamu's reassuringly out of date government numbers from June 2007 to not be too concerned about Gordon Brown's debt riddled poor house benefits dependent economy.
Sadly, for Gordon Brown the next unintended consequence in the comedy of errors that the UK economy has become will
Call the election be the bad debts that go up in the banks and wipe out all the new capital they just raised.
Deary, deary me. it's taxing stuff this economics isn't it? Especially if you can't get access to the capital economics website to verify the real levels of personal indebtedness in the Uk.
Never mind, I'm reassured that Gordon Brown will retire to Chequers this weekend swimming in hubris about Glenrothes and then come out and challenge the novices to an election on Monday.
Then it will be game on. The tories will get proper access to the Treasury books and Gordon Brown's smoke and mirrors economic narrative will be shown to be the charade that it is.
Call the election.
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C'mon Gordon bring the opportunity to vote to the South... we're extremely keen to express ourselves in the democratic way down here!
Glenrothes??? Never heard of it before this by-election.
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a question which may have been answered above but here goes anyway.....
Does this result mean:
a) Labour are really on the way back?
b) the electorate in Scotland are turning against the SNP?
c) Something else entirely?
was just very surprised by the outcome and wondered if it really is Brown all the way now..........
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Why has Gordon Brown described the result a "Vote of confidence" in the Government ?
He doesn't describe election defeats as a "Vote of No confidence" does he. In fact he vehemently denies that by-election defeats have got anything to do with confidence in the Government. There usually some excuse spun to us...
Its about time we had a vote of no confidence again, the way the economy is going. Interest Rates cut by a third yesterday and the IMF saying that the UK's economy is got to be the worst hit of the Westernised nations.
I'd just like to get the election out of the way so that we can have a mass debate on the question of what should be done. Whoever is returned has then got a mandate for the major changes that are necessary and can get on with it...
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Those posters from England (including you I'm afraid, Nick) who see some kind of sign here that there is a "Brown bounce", that his fortunes have turned, or that the Conservatives are in trouble having lost their deposit, are forgetting that this election was in Scotland, and for a seat at Westminster not Holyrood. There are completely different dynamics at play in Scottish politics, and nothing should be read into this result regarding the next general election.
The good people of Fife vote Labour for Westminster; it is in their blood. Some of the increase in the SNP vote should be seen in the same way as any other protest vote at a bye-election. The party in power do well to hold onto the majority they get at a GE, so no real surprises here.
The Tory party is largely an irrelevance in most of Scotland. Losing their deposit will have come as small surprise to them. The party most worried I suspect will be the Lib Dems, knocked into 4th place by the Tories, which takes some doing in Scotland.
The conclusions I take from this are:
1) Scottish voters know full well the difference between the parliaments at Holyrood and Westminster, but local concerns still matter to them, and they will vote accordingly. SNP running the local council played against them here.
2) The SNP is not as popular as their supporters would have us believe. Fine for "local" governance and at Holyrood, but they will not surpass Labour at Westmnster elections.
3) We need another bye-election in England to gauge the reality of a "Brown bounce". Even in previously safe Labour seats the Tories are a genuine threat to them now. Labour know this full well.
Sadly, I very much doubt this result will influence Gordon Brown into calling an early general election. On the other hand, hope springs eternal!
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You're views are somewhat at variance with your colleague Brian Taylor who has delivered a more perceptive and less government biased opinion.
An impressive result for sure Nick, but what this really means is that Brown couldn't even stem the tide in his own backyard, holding onto Glenrothes with a slimmed down majority and a 5% SNP swing.
You of all people should know the SNP were simply out-gunned and out-manoeuvred as the government pulled out all the stops to prevent a humiliating defeat.
Brown and New Labour were just in the right place at the right time, as I point out here.
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/brown-just-pulls-off-glenrothes.html
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I am sad to say that if David Cameron is to regain the initiative, he will need to put George into detention until after the election.
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#103 U
It's all very well and good saying something as an opposition politician, but where were the policies to do something about it?
Stamp duty (a transaction tax that dampens housing demand) should be abolished according to the Conservatives.
Any form of capital gains tax is rejected.
Government interference in the lending practices of banks for mortgage-lending is frowned upon (particularly by John Redwood, it has to be said). The market knows best - not the Government in their view.
What would Conservatives do different to prevent housing bubbles? They don't appear to have any idea from where I'm standing, and reforms they have proposed (e.g. abolish stamp duty) would appear to increase instability in the housing market.
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@105
Sorry you too failed to mention "toff"
No pay for that post
Back to Uncle Derek please and try harder next time
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To getridofgordonnow at 5
Let me explain to you as well as Nick Robinson it seems. I live in Scotland and as an English person that in itself is difficult because of prejudice, the Scottish dont care about the whole of Britain they hate the English they would never vote for D. Cameron because hes English. Up here its not British anything not even poppies its just Scottish Gas etc. Taking this into account, they also receive generous taxes to fund all the things England cannot afford, the Barnett formula should have been reformed by Brown but of course this would never happen hes a Scot for goodness sake.
So the choice came down to just two SNP and Labour. Because G. Brown was able to make the case that he bailed out their beloved Scottish banks and if they had not been in the union Scotland on its own could not have afforded the bail out they voted Labour.
The Scottish want their cake and eat it and at the moment under Brown their getting it. The English need to wake up and realise that Scotland in all but name is independent they dont want the label British but they do want your taxes.
It wouldnt matter how much they hated G. Brown and Labour they would never go against one of their own for an English person.
All thats happened is that another voice has been added to those already who can vote on English matters in parliament and our MPs can not vote on Scottish matters and this particular candidate is a real boot licker for Brown very poor choice indeed he cant string two word together.
England needs its own Parliament and to boot Brown out.
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Bob_Shaw @ 97
Well, there is a co-incidence.
It was only yesterday that I commented on these blogs, in reply to somebody who had called me a 'Little Englander', that you never see anybody saying 'Little Scotland{er}'.
Then up you pop!
I wonder if Irish people who were in the Union for 120 years (1801 thru to 1921) who desired and eventually obtained full independence from the Union, were taunted with 'Little Ireland' insults?
In my opinion, the independence tide is flowing strongly in Scotland and neither Gordon Brown or especially 'Dave' can do anything significant to stop it.
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Pathetic. And did the virtual news blackout on the by election contribute perhaps? Wednesday night on the Beeb - did we hear about the byelection? Did we hell...
Country's getting more like the GDR by the day, but without the shotputters.
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104#
Extraordinary
1:11pm on 07 Nov 2008
re: 94 The Notting Hill Hammer
"The electorate know Cameron cannot handle the economy and Brown can"
Do they?
Maybe the people of Glenrothes think that, but when the IMF says that the UK is the worst run economy in the developed world and have been warning labour for years that they were running the economy into the ground and also that they were helping to create a massive global economic disaster over the last few years, then as a voter I tend to think that it's Brown who can't handle the economy.
If we had a general election then perhaps we'd find out what the electorate think.
...........................
Is that really what the IMF have been saying? And for years? Are you sure? You see I seem to remember seeing this:
May 23, 2008
1. For over a decade, the United Kingdom has sustained low inflation and rapid economic growth-an exceptional achievement. More recently, the economy grew by 3 percent in 2007, and inflation returned to target after a temporary elevation. All this is the fruit of strong policies and policy frameworks, which provide a strong foundation to weather global shocks.
Guess where I saw it? go on... I'll give you a clue. Its from an IMF report. Notice the date?
You see, when you talk rubbish people can check what you have said and refute it.
The reason the UK will be hard hit is because of the prominence of the banking sector, not because of mismanagement.
Looking back over the last 10 years I can't find a single IMF report that backs up your lies. In fact I would advise labour to refer to the IMF reports to back up their claim to economic competence.
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104
"If we had a general election then perhaps we'd find out what the electorate think"
I'm sorry but how much more electoral could Glenrothes have got? Governments lose more by-elections that they win. Are you guaranteeing a flight from Labour (to what?) in a general election on the basis of this result? This result?
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One further prediction we can make is that an independent Scotland, whatever that now means, would be a Labour Scotland.
One of the main reasons I left. The nationalists might have tried to set up their oil fund for future generations but they'd soon have been wiped out by Labour promising to spend that oil money right now. On you. Vote Labour.
In Scotland all the political commentary is on a race to spend even more government money. That was before the 'credit crunch'. So, under devolution, the Scottish parliament can raise or lower local Income Tax by 3%.
Now, bear in mind the last Scottish elections were before this credit crunch thing really blew up. But all the talk form the SNP and Labour and Liberals was of using this 3% option to increase tax. To hell with decreasing it to try and attract new workers or businesses. We need more of your money. This on top of the massive subsidies compared to the UK average already.
Not a clue. And it is the more articulate of this mind-set that has hi-jacked the Labour leadership and explains why their answer to everything is: Borrow more, Tax more, Squander more.
And when it blows up in their face?
Blame somebody else. Blame the yanks. Blame the banks. Blame Margaret Thatcher.
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So there's a "Brown bounce", is there? I'm sure I read something recently about a "dead cat bounce" as well.
Does that mean that Brown can reasonably be compared to a dead cat?
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This result says little about the English situation, it was a battle between labour and the SNP with the Tories and Liberals as bystanders.
I even heard Tories being interviewed saying they were voting Labour to stop the SNP.
Not sure Brown is bouncing so much as rolling along the bottom.
As others have said look at the IMF predictions before making your judgment.
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BraveSouter at 105
You make the same silly comment all the time about the Bullingdon Club did they stop you having a membership or something.
If you knew anything about Scottish politics you would understand that this bi-election has nothing to do with the conservatives abilities, if they were the best opposition ever they still would not have got in. Scots will never vote against one of their own for an English person and the choice was down to SNP and Labour. Labour only won because they proved that Scotland did not have the tax money to go it alone otherwise it would have been a landslide for the SNP. Its all about tax money.
Yes before you say I do know I live in Scotland
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wait till the next budget
it will be higher taxes and less spending
that will put it into perspective
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Might there be a direct "Obama effect" working in favour of the left-leaning candidate? Is it fanciful to suggest that haggard, compromised labour might even be benefiting from a (brief) stirring of political idealism?
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109
"a very bad result for the SNP. And a very bad result for those hoping to see the end of this most lamentable government"
Doesn't this (still!) echo the hype that was flying about before Glenrothes? SNP was never going to topple the government. If they had done better, a few English Tories would have smirked because they favour Independence, but that's hypothetical or a long way off, and that's about it. This was the setback for Brown that never happened, and Scotland was the place where it never. Not a lot to write home about really.
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If its a definate bounce then lets hope its a 'dead cat' one ..
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114 again "Those posters from England "
Here you have the essence of the delusion. No wonder Labour 'won'.
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Sshhh... nobody say anything. Let them believe their own spin and with a bit of luck they may call a Spring election and we'll be delivered sooner rather than later. ;-)
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The pro labour mr C.H.Hardwidge,I don't know if you live in a inner city like I do,but your beloved labour govenment have created a new class ,the under class.I should be a hard line labour party supporter but I have lost all respect for labour,infact I would do a deal with the devil to get rid of this pathetic govenment,thats how much I want them OUT.
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It's all very well and good saying something as an opposition politician, but where were the policies to do something about it?
The problem with the opposition pointing out problems and suggesting solutions is that this government simply denies there are any problems. Hence no action at all being taken in the teeth of runaway house price inflation and soaring government and private borrowing. They simply basked in the reflected glow of borrowed money and dissed the Tories for seeking to 'talk down the economy' or 'trample on the aspirations of hardworking people blah Blah'...
Trying to reason with this government is simply impossible. The only time they cuddle up to the opposition is to shaft them. Look how Paddy Ashdown was courted with a promise of PR and then humiliated by releasing details of his affair. PR quietly dropped in the fallout. Look how Ian Duncan-Smith was invited in for a fire-side chat when Tony needed his support for his insane Iraq war. Look at the thanks the Tories got for that.
Next Cameron and Vince Cable called in for the 'united front' chat in the teeth of this 'global crisis' only when it all breaks to see it thrown back at Cameron and the Tories as a failure of Thatcherism. Gordon meanwhile striding the stage as the economic hero wot saved the day.
This government is disingenuous to the core. They have us all hostage with their lies and their media manipulation. They are responsible for nothing that goes wrong (which, by the way is everything they touch) meanwhile we are to be finger-printed and issued with ID cards in our own country. We are spied upon in a manner that East Germany's old rulers would have an erection about if they had the technology and we have had our economy annihilated by a decade of insouciant incompetence.
What would Conservatives do different to prevent housing bubbles?
I'm not a conservative spokesman but some suggestions would be:
Keep an eye on house price inflation? Include that in the 'independent' BoE's remit instead of deliberately picking an inflation proxy that entirely excludes house prices? Not give the BoE such a narrow remit that its sole job was to target CPI?
Not treat house price inflation as a 'good' thing? Not actively encourage it by influencing the 'independent' BoE to cut interest rates just as things were cooling down leading into the 2005 election?
Stuff like that.
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#110 RobinJD
Are you EVER going to provide a link to your dodgy 180% personal debt statistic?
The latest official stats from BERR say that at the END of 2007 (not in June), personal debt stood at 155% of disposable income.
Your suggestion it increase by a further 15% of disposable income during Q1 and Q2 2008 appears far-fetched (this was the same % increase seen during the 36 months 2004-2007, for example). I could be convinced if you show me where these figures are (except in your head).
Can you understand why I don't naturally trust what you say - you've been caught out lying about statistics in the past (e.g. 67% of Scots work in the public sector, among many other laughable assertions)?
I would agree with you in the limited sense that, as we are entering recession, a lot of economic data will begin to get worse, as it is across the world (e.g. the US) as the global recession hits other countries too.
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I do love how the regular doomsayers on this blog constantly harp on about the "IMF warning" about Britain's economy. The IMF is the single most useless international organisation ever conceived, it's economic methods are fundamentally flawed and it's standing is now so low that some countries that need their help are going cap in hand to Russia and China for loans rather than swallowing the poison pills that the IMF is offering. Witness what they are in the process of doing to Iceland's economy.
The idea that the IMF is an omniscient power about economic performance is roundly disproved by pretty much every economy they've tried to "help" for the last 25 years.
Mid term elections for long term incumbent governments are traditionally dodgy ground, but it does appear that Labour might have turned the corner, provided the economy doesn't completely collapse.
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RE: No 199 Susan-Croft
I dont think ive ever seen such zenophobic ill informed rubbish posted in one go for a long time.
So all Scots hate all English and and the fact that Scottish Gas is called that is further proof of Anti-Englishness! And the Poppies - what are you gong on about?
Has it occured to you that if most Scots hated the English we would have just all voted SNP (a minoroty administraition) a long long time ago? Instead of being ruled mainly from London, England.
Most Scots despite what the uber SNP fanatics tell you are happy to stay in the Union but like the English dont want it in its current form. The problem is the people at the top like it just as it is and wont change something that benifits them.
I live and work in the Highlands these days and know lots of English that never get any hasstle - and neither they should. Of the one customer of ours I know that has the reason for it is that he is a horrible person. He has been called a English B*stard but its just because he is the later.
I suggest you look closer to home if you are not liked as much as you claim.
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nhh @ 122
The reason the UK will be hard hit is because of the prominence of the banking sector
Correct!
Over reliance on financial services and on property - plus a spivvy short termist approach to both of these things. Far too much "market" and far too little planning, in other words.
Government debt is trivial, as a cause of the downturn, compared to these factors.
Thatcher should be in the dock but is probably too old and doolaly to stand trial.
Best way to punish her, therefore, is probably to vote tactically in the GE - go for whatever candidate (Raving Monster Loony, if necessary) is best placed to defeat the Tory candidate.
It's a marvellous opportunity for us since, if the BTP lose even under these economic circumstances, they are dead, baby, they're dead.
Yes?
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Wasn't GB born in Glasgow?
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Shame on you Robinson, in the past I have respected your Blog for being fair and unbiased; however recently you have become obsessed with the "Brown Bounce" following that speech.
The Brown Bounce is the illusion you and your journalist chums have created to breathe life into a lame duck leader of the Labour Party. Notwithstanding the cynical speech he made to Labour party to save his flagging career, you guys have tried to makeout he is somehow the Global Authority on sorting out the Economic mess we are in.
The reality I am afraid to report is far from that, what Brown and Darling have tried to achieve is short term political gain at the expense of long term financial stability of the nation.
Yes, this is a Global financial crisis, however the IMF report indicates that we will be one of the worst affected by this crisis. Why ?..well Brown in his tenure as Chancellor presided over a debt fuelled boom that craeted huge level of personal debbt, distorted a housing market and is about to lead to one of the biggest economic hangovers in living memory. However, it appears that BBC fails to make this case time and time again over Brown's incompetence, but allows Brown to claim credit for the rescue. Incidentally the re-Capitilization of the banks has in the main failed to stimulate the Capital markets and we are now having to resort to good old interest rate slashing to see if we can get the LIBOR rate down and banks lending to each other. You should note that another reason why we still have stagnation in the Capital markets is taht the Banks are being obligated to hold higher amounts of Capital for the future and so are unwilling to lend. Ask the Japanesse if this approach worked for them following their banking crisis in the nineties
Then there has been the recent clamour to again portray the Conservatives as they party of sleaze with young George and the Russian Aluminium Godfather. Yet this was a non-story, Osbourne did not ask for money nor did he recive any. Had he done so then yes the Conservatives should have been hung to dry, but the fact was you and your colleagues tried to create the illusion that something fishy had gone on the reality was probably more innocent, probably explaining why there is no more focus on this story and the deafening silience from the BBC on it. A top tip where there is NO smoke there generally isn't much of a fire !!
The real shame in the Russian Aluminium Godfather affair was the lack of focus you guys put on Mandelson. After all was this not the bigger fish you could of fried with his less than transparent recollection of events. Sorry forgot...EU trade ministers are above the laws they seek to create!!
So please will you start being more even handed and stop basking in the self-illuminated glow Brown has tried to create of the mess he was, in part, responsible for.
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A very good result for labour as it stops the rot so to speak. But I think their supporters should think twice before believing this to be a corner turned on the road to a general election victory.
This by-election was won, not out of support for Gordon Brown, but for support for the greater strength of the union. One of the big arguments used by Labour in this election was that an independent Scotland would be severely hampered when trying to deal with international financial crises.
And I see this result as a weakning of the belief in independence rather than an affirmation of Brown's handling of the crises (which would be extremely unlikely).
The Labour Party cannot run this type of campaign in the vast swathes of England where the economic situation is really beginning to deteriorate and the cause of which can be laid nowhere but the door of the Gordon Brown.
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re: 123 solpugid
I was just saying that I think the whole of the UK should be able to decide their leader and change the government.
Given the chickens which have now come home to roost regarding the economy I think the electorate across the uk deserve to have a say in who they think should fix the problems that labour have created.
As to who would win a general election I can only guess.
But I wouldn't class the Glenrothes result as a taster for what might happen across the uk at a general election because it's a peculiar situation which isn't mirrored across the rest of the uk.
My guess is that the Glenrothes election result is just a weird quirk given the demographics and the individual candidates.
If we did have a general election and labour won, then, given that labour have destroyed the economy and left us in the worst position in the entire developed world, I would just leave the uk voters to it and move abroad (probably to asia) as soon as the result became apparent, and I'd take my business/income with me.
At the moment I'm staying put and just trying to survive, hoping that in 2010 labour get kicked out. If they don't get kicked out then I'm leaving because another 5 years of intentional economic destruction would be more than I can stand.
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#119 Susan-Croft
I have to say I found your rant to be less than reasonable and wholly objectionable.
As a Scot who pays more than enough in taxes to the UK Exchequer, perhaps you might allow me to reply to the drivel that you have posted. In the - not so long ago - good old days when the Conservatives were in power, you might have noted that they had the power to create policy for Scotland, despite the fact that they did not have a majority in that part of the World. Did you object to this?
To-day, we still have a majority of Labour MPs in Scotland (and this may still be the case after the next election), however, the English now appear to be upset because the Labour party are enacting policies in England which they would not be able to do without the lobby fodder coming from their troops in Scotland. Do you see the irony in this?
You claim that the Scots hate the English. Have you never found a Scot who likes the English or who appreciates cricket? Are there no Scots with English parents or partners? Are there no English living in Scotland because of the benefits that they perceive from residing there?
As for the knee-jerk nonsense on the Banks. Is it asking too much for you to acknowledge that RBS holds the assets and debts of the English through the NatWest brand or that Bank of Scotland likewise has suffered through the merger with the Halifax? Either you accept that these are UK banks, or we have to follow your logic and accept that the UK Parliament is in fact the English Parliament since it is based in London.
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What a fuss about nothing again.
A solid Labour seat with a reduced majority.
How boring can it get?
How many more straws will Labour try to clutch at?
Time is running out for Brown.
Just wait until the New Year when unemployment and business failures rocket.
Will he then accept responsibility for the economic mess he has created?
This recession was on the cards long before the banking crisis. It is just going to be a lot more severe now.
1.3 Trillion+ pounds worth of debt to be squeezed out of the system in this country before things can improve.
That sounds like a long drawn out recession to me. Can't blame the global problems for that one.
Just tell everyone the truth Mr Brown
If you can face up to it.
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Chad sexington wrote;
"The IMF is the single most useless international organisation ever conceived"
Can top that.....The UN
and nationally
New Labour
if the economy does bang out, as the E&Y Item Club suggest, might I suggest the Conservatives roll-out the old posters of Labour ain't working
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if the BTP lose even under these economic circumstances, they are dead, baby, they're dead.
If the Tory party lose under these economic circumstances it's a safe bet that we're all dead.
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Thatcher should be in the dock but is probably too old and doolaly to stand trial.
Wow. She must have really upset you.
Do tell. Let it all out.
Share.
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#135 U
Your first argument appears to be that because the Government would not listen to reason or accept that problems exist, there is no point in the Conservatives suggesting what they would do different if they were in power.
This approach (if this is indeed how the shadow cabinet were thinking) doesn't convince me that they have the answers. They didn't propose one policy (e.g. in their 2005 manifesto) that would have restricted house price growth (indeed, quite the opposite), nor highlight it as a key failing of Labour.
Your second has more weight and would deserve serious consideration. Explicitly including an objective to restrict "excessive" asset price growth in the BoE remit would likely have some impact (though interest rates would be a blunt tool to achieve this). Where would they make the trade-off between real economic growth, inflation and asset price growth? How would they 'call a bubble'? What if real economic growth is sluggish, goods and service inflation low, but speculative house price growth/stock price growth is high? Should they deliberately cause a recession and unemployment to cool things down?
In any case, it has not been Conservative policy. They have not been criticising the Government for allowing a bubble to develop until house prices started going down. Before then they were happy to talk them up, encourage higher subsidies for FTBs to allow them to 'get on the housing ladder' and employ pundits on the many TV Housing Programmes that proliferated during the boom years (with an interest in continued house price bubble growth) to determine their housing policies (e.g. abolish stamp duty, keep the bubble going).
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#143 getrid
Just like Paul Daniels
I guess it's easier to say things like that with the cloak of anonymity!
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What do we have to do to get the BBC to report the news and make political comments in an unbiased way????
The government chose the date of the bye election to be the day after the US presidential election and on the same day that the interest rates were dropped by desperate 1.5% by the "independent" BOE.
This was not luck but brilliant strategy to take the bye election off the news.
In addition labour correctly identified the SNP's weak point and used / fanned disatisfaction about care charges to discredit the SNP.
Just proves labour have an excellent spin machine (Ali and Mandy) and other parties need to get their act together to beat it.
This also shows that we need another electoral system, proportional or tranferrerable vote, so that people can express their first choice and not have to vote "tactically". There are many people who vote labour because they do not want independence and there and also people who vote SNP, even if they do not believe in independence, to try to stop labour getting in. For this reason the raw first past the post system will not give an extrapolatable picture of the peoples wishes.
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Let's not forget: Nu-Lab doubled tax on the lowest earners.
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It's funny that the Tories are now so sensitive about having been members of the Bullingdon Club. Is it not censorship for the Tory Party to have bought up the picture of that nice cuddly Dave and his mate Boris so that we can't see it any more. Still foppish Good Time George can still suffer for his previous stupidity. Remember Dave if you want to be like Obama you should bear in mind that he admitted smoking pot while at College unlike you.
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I think most of us got the result wrong - even those who thought it might be close. Labour increased their share by 3% and comfortably held on despite the SNP throwing everything including the kitchen sink at Labour. For the SNP it is not a disaster but it should give them pause for thought.
The reasons why they did not make the big break-through are complex but I'll try to give my thoughts on why they lost.
The SNP still try to fight elections as the opposition and, as we saw here, that is no longer the case in Scotland. The consequence of at least one policy contributed to their downfall here. The council tax freeze may be nationally a popular move but at a local level councils are finding it hard to implement. It was easy for Labour to attack the local Lib Dem/SNP coalition for charges for local services - charges I believe are a direct result of freezing the Council Tax. If they want to avoid this issue happening again then serious consideration is going to have to be given to the block grant levels that councils receive. That in itself may have implications for funding other Scottish Government priorities. Something will have to give - and it will not be the Council Tax freeze. I would expect some other SNP policy to be delayed or even abandoned altogether to keep their flagship policy intact.
Another issue is undoubtedly was independence. I have been derided here for pointing out that Labour would try to use the global financial crisis and events in countries such as Iceland for their own political benefit. Whether events in Iceland (or Hungary, Ukraine etc) have a direct correlation to Scottish independence is irrelevant (I personally don't think they do). The perception is that they do and the SNP have only themselves to blame. Salmond set himself up for a fall with his Arc of Prosperity speech. The SNP need to start making the case for Scottish independence purely in Scottish terms not on what another country has done.
That brings us to the third area - oil. The last month or so has shown that economies who rely heavily on a particular natural resource suffer due to fluctuating commodity prices. Here in Scotland some are beginning to realise the fallacy of SNP economic policy that is built on the price of oil. The SNP were fine when oil prices were at a high level but now at the low price levels we have now their argument has been undermined. The SNP need to take oil out of the argument and make the case that economic independence is possible whether or not we have oil. That means they really do need to make a reassessment of their policies for a post-independence Scotland.
The truth is that if the SNP are going to win an independence referendum they have a long way to go to convince the agnostics in the electorate. They need to make a much more subtle case that the one they have made thus far.
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Sarah Brown makes seven (that we know about) electioneering visits to Glenrothes.
Wasn't it Mr brown that said, "I would NEVER use my family to win votes?"
You just can't trust one single word that falls from this oafs mouth.
Liar Liar pants on fire!!!
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Susan Croft - "Scots will never vote against one of their own for an English person "
Not a student of polictics then? Care to enlighten me as to what happened to this English-hating bunch in 1955 when a majority of Scots voted for a party (the Scottish Unionist Party, aka the Tories) that was supporting a man born in England and educated at Eton to be the Prime Minister?
Your posts in general seem to indicate a distinct lack of sympathy and affiliation with Scots. One wonders why you continue to live alongside them?
Oh, and is the National Westminster a beloved Scottish bank? And where in Scotland could I find the town of Halifax?
As for Pot-Kettle, I didn't call last night's result any more than a boost from the heartlands - Cameron's problems are much more diverse. And to suggest there is a single person in the Labour party who is not delighted with the result is simply insane.
And imho, they'd have been delighted if the margin was considerably slimmer - this was a fight that Labour was widely expected to lose. And it didn't. It might not change the world, but it is still a success worthy of note.
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#92 oldnat
It is not whether the bloggers understand the dynamics of the Glenrothes poll that troubles me. It is the fact that Nick does, yet goes along with the post-poll fiction peddled by Labour.
Their campaign was very focused and very narrow on a couple of very local issues. Negative and misleading, as SNP claim, or not - it was successful. For Labour to then peddle the notion that it was all about Brown's handling of the economic crisis is disengenuous to put it mildly - but dogs bark, snakes hiss and Labour spins. Such is life, certainly political life. We have come to expect no better.
But for Nick to cover it as he has in this blog - ? ? We are entitled to better.
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U @ 103
All I'm asking for is honesty
Let me give U some.
The downturn is going to be worse in the UK than in any other country. It might actually be so bad that we get into Government of National Unity territory - a one in four chance, I'd rate that.
Why so bad for us?
Obvious - it's because we have an economy that is tilted to an absurd extent towards financial services and property speculation, yes? And the banking and property sectors are stuffed because of the behaviour of banks and private individuals. Expecting the regulators to put have a stop to all this - given its unstoppable momentum - is what one might call a sweet idea.
When somebody's ill, you need to look for the root cause if you're going to treat them properly and, in this case, the root causes - all of them - stem from the eighties ultra free market revolution. Yeah, you know who I'm talking about.
Thatcher.
Now, U know that I'm a very perceptive person don't you? - yes, you do.
So, the thing is that I can sense a couple of things about U:
#1
... more than anything else, you're driven by a visceral hatred of Gordon Brown - not because of what he's done or not done, but because of all that boasting - deep down, you know my analysis of what's gone wrong is better than yours.
#2
... from one or two things you've typed, it's clear that you are not a raving right wing lunatic - oh you may pretend to be (and with great success a lot of the time) but in truth you're not, are you? - that contempt for ordinary people which sometimes fouls up your otherwise excellent posts is not the real U, I'm sure of it - there's something quite good hiding away in there.
#3
... no, what U are is a disillusioned Clear Thinking Progressive who feels let down by how New Labour have failed to change the country in the way that we all thought they might back in 97 - I feel that too.
Hope that helps a little.
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The deeper the recession the greater the recovery in GB's standing. Given another 6 months of increasingly bad news on the economy, including soaring unemploment, a collapsing pound and an avalanche of lost jobs, the Labour party should call election and would win it handsomely. Fanciful?
Never underestimate the gullibility of the average elector. TB was re-elected twice and he took us into an illegal war where many thousands have been slaughtered. A few bribes and a handful of promises and GB should win hands down. When you look at the opposition you can't say I'm wrong.
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Nick having read some of the comments that lambast you for your continued and unadulterated support of all things Labour and yours and the BBCs completeley biased approach to reporting the running of this country.
One day soon you will realise that the more you trumpet the wonders of all things Brown, the more you make the man on the street realise how little stock should be put by anything that the beeb says. Sadly for you we are not all sheep that believe all we are told.
no matter how you dress it up this was a safe seat which lost ground.
not so much bounce as flounce!
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balhamu
What can I say? If you can't get into www.capitaleconomics.com then there's nothing I can do for you.
Sadly the truth is that they are showing household debt as a percentage of household disposable income running a a monstrous 180%.
They don't even have thisreturning to 155% by 2013.
Is this really so surprising? Real incomes are falling and unemployment is rising; how can people hope to repay their debt.
Your government statistics stop mid 2007 and since then there has been a dramatic deterioration but even if your 155% is accepted (and Capital economics have it at tat level mid 2007), the reality is that it is way above all our European peers even then and still higher than in the supposed credit driven USA.
This is a national disgrace, was known about for years, was made worse by the hopeless wholesale credit model adopted by the banks after the introduction of tripartite regulation (the idea of Gordon Brown at the same time as his golden rules/duck) and is Gordon Brown's boom built on credit.
He couldn't put a stop to it because he couldn't bear to bring an end to the non stop boom which was to be his 'legacy'. His legacy is riddling the personal sector with mortgages on houses they couldn't afford.
The only person who has made the slightest sense on this one is Mervyn King, whose aphorism - 'house prices are opinion, debt is real' shows just how serious this problem is.
Now you can go on arguiong the toss about your numbers versus my numbers but if their is no problem why are we presented with a dialy stream of 'worst ever' data for the uk economy?
The man has nowhere to hide and neither do you.
This was a boom built on credit.
There has never been a boom built on credit anywhere in the world that did not end in bust. This is Gordon Brown's bust.
Now go read 'The Moneymaker' - a true story about another Scottish financier, John Law, who bankrupted the French with a boom built on credit in the early eighteenth century. The parallels are terrifying.
Think this is taught in the Scottish history books?
Call an election.
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Congratulations to labour on their win. Had a look at the have your say section from the link on the BBC article regarding the labour win, fairly mixed response on there to the result.
Using the figures given in that BBC report for the 2005 Westminster General Election and the 2008 Glenrothes by-election:
Voters on Electoral Roll: 69,155
Total Voter Turn out
2008: 36,219 (52.3%) 2005: 38,796 (56.1%)
Labour
2008:19,946 (56.19%) 2005: 19,395(52.62%) - up by 3.57%
SNP
2008:13,209 (37.21%) 2005: 8,731 (23.69%) - up by 13.52%
Conservatives
2008:1,381 (3.89%) 2005: 2,651 (7.19%) - down by 3.3%
Liberal Democrats
2008:947 (2.67%) 2005: 4,728 (12.38%) - down by 10.16%
Although as the SNP % share of the vote is down compared with the Scottish parliament election results in 2007, as oldnat has posted in #55 on the Glenrothes by-election thread, I think it is perhaps more relevant to compare Westminster results.
My reasoning for this is that there is still a perception of voting SNP in a Westminster election is a wasted vote i.e "what's the point in sending an SNP MP to Westminster, as they won't be able to influence anything"; as opposed to sending an MP from one of the main Westminster parties, which usually means Labour. This arguement had been put forward by one of the unionist posters on here yesterday. I know I have done this myself in the past.
As has been discussed previously, it's at Westminster where constitutional change will be decided and influenced. I feel that until the SNP make this more clear to the electorate then there vote will always be lower in Westminster elections compared to Scottish parliament elections.
If constitutional change is indeed what the people of Scotland desire it has to be emphasised by the SNP that voters must also vote SNP in Westminster elections in order to present this view point, not just Scottish parliament elections.
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#151 ironduke
Even if that's the case, why would it make any difference to the voters of Glenrothes? It merely would have deflected national attention away from a negative result for Labour.
I think of more concern is the 'burying of bad news' by the Conservative administration in London - Boris choosing to release his transport strategy at the time of the US election/Glenrothes by-election to reduce the questioning of why he is dropping billions of pounds worth of transport infrastructure projects in Labour-voting areas, and shifting the balance of investment to surburban areas that voted him in, and persisting with his Routemaster vanity project that has very poor value-for-money. I guess spin is fine if the Conservatives do it though. It's the evil Labour spin that must be abolished.
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IMF
At the end of last week there was an interview on the Today programme with a lady from the IMF who said that the global economic crisis was caused by the USA and UK. No further comment was made by the BBC and the interview seems to have disappeared from the Today website. So according to the IMF not only did we cause the problem but we will feel the effects more than the rest of the world.
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Susan-croft would you please stop portraying all scots as racist. I don't care what you think you know about scots being anglophobic. The fact you may have had some unfortunate experiences does not entitle you to make such broad sweeping statements! I lived in london and would occasionally come up against anti-scottish prejudice. This happened much more frequently after Brown came to power and the press started milking the whole subsidisation issue. However I would never dream of stating that all english hold anti-scottish views!
That is all.
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Just a quick point on the battle of the sound bites. I think Labour will need to drop no time for a novice because it can be countered by the far more powerful time for a change!
The potentially killer line for Labour is their other one, you know ... serious people for serious times - that, in my opinion, and leaving all partisanship to one side, is going to really
resonate wouldn't you agree?
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One of the myths being peddled now is that the Tories would have done things differently. That they would not have spent money as Labour has done. That they would have regulated the banks. that they would have controlled house price inflation.
If that is so then why in the last two elections did they promise to match Labour's expenditure commitments?
If that is so then why has Cameron promised to match Darling's expenditure commitments for the next two years?
If that is so then why did the Tories promise less not more regulation for business?
If that is so why were they proposing an infaltionary (house price) abolition of stamp duty for first time buyers?
The truth is that the Tories would have followed pretty much the same economic orthodoxy as Labour.
As for the comment that the Tories would have controlled city bonuses and pay - you are having a laugh?
Or was that pure sarcasm?
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All the by-election proves - ALL it proves - is that 13,209 Scots who wanted the SNP are now unrepresented. They might as well have been disenfranchised.
If Brown thinks that's a victory for him and/or his party it shows how little he understands about democracy.
GC
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Why so bad for us?
Because even before the inevitable denouement we were running fiscal deficits of 3% of GDP. Gordon Brown's magic number. The secret that had evaded every finance minister in history.
Obvious - it's because we have an economy that is tilted to an absurd extent towards financial services and property speculation, yes?
Being the only game in town after a decade of Labour borrowing and squandering you mean? No investment in any infrastructure except a bundle of shiny static hospitals with machines that go 'ping' and a shed-load of adminstrators with clip-boards to hide in their offices monitoring tractor statistics.
And the banking and property sectors are stuffed because of the behaviour of banks and private individuals. Expecting the regulators to put have a stop to all this - given its unstoppable momentum - is what one might call a sweet idea.
Funny. Th regulators managed to avoid a run on a bank for the previous 150 years or so. What could possibly have changed to take their eye off the ball. Oh, that man again. Gordon Brown. Look but don't touch!
In fact don't look at all. You mightn't like what you see and it'll be bad for me in the polls if you start reining in their behaviour.
Now, U know that I'm a very perceptive person don't you? - yes, you do.
Me too. You're pretending to empathise. It's the turn of the 'good cop' in the 'good cop/bad cop' routine.
Nice try though.
At least we're agreed on one thing.
Nu Labour and Gordon Brown are, in the politest possible way very disappointing.
I suspect we think so for very different reasons however.
Anyway, as you rightly point out poor old Thatcher is probably too ill to try these days. I, for the moment console myself with the thought that it's not too late to hang Gordon Brown.
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#161 Robin
Been there.
It gives me several samples of reports that they do (most of them are rather dated as well).
Exactly which report are you referring to - there are several of them!
Care to give a title?
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#159 Expect a move on Iraq soon - Obama and Brown will do a deal that gets UK troops out of Iraq well before the next election.
All it needs is another Tory slip-up (ala Osborne) and peopel will start to think more about who they are letting in than who they are kicking out. That's not wishful thinking either - Osborne's personal ratings have gone from 70% down to miniscule 2%. If Cameron does not get rid of him he is going to be a lame duck shadow chancellor.
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serious people for serious times
In the case of Gordon Brown it's more boring people committing serious crimes. Innit.
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re: 150 balhamu
My situation is slightly different to Paul Daniels, in that my wife's been harping on at me for ages that we should up sticks and go, I've actually been the one saying to her "hold on, let's just wait for a bit to see if it gets any worse or if a new government gets in."
She wants to go because:
1) The levels of tax that we have are mad. If we have anything other than a massively high income, our disposable income gets almost entirely used on indirect taxes (council tax, car tax, tv license etc etc) with virtually nothing left at the end of the month.
2) What little disposable income we've got left is almost useless because the cost of living is so high.
3) There is no sign of anything improving because the government are going to need to increase taxes to pay for the increased public debt, so even if we didn't have a recession things would still get much much worse in the years to come.
4) My job allows me to work anywhere; as long as I've got an internet connection then I can continue to work with no problems; my physical location is totally irrelevant to my job.
5) The nhs compared to where we're going is awful; it might be contentious, but in our experience almost all our dealings with the nhs have been a nightmare. For example pregnant women here are refused to be allowed to see doctors even when they've been in labour for several days, and it takes weeks to get a physio appointment when you're in agony. Whereas where we'd go we've had experience of a fantastic health system where you get immediate high quality service; you get seen/treated there and then no matter what, and you get to see proper doctors and not just nurses/midwives.
6) The weather's much nicer where we'd be going, the cost of living is much cheaper, the taxes are much lower, the people are more friendly, and the children are taught the difference between right and wrong in schools.
We've gone abroad for months at a time before, and the difference is only really apparent when you're out of the country for a month or more and working there too. It's incredibly depressing to come back here once you've tasted what life can be like in a country that's properly run with a decent society. Only people who've spent a long time abroad will have a true understanding of just how bad things are here; it's hard to compare unless you've actually been there and done it.
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#124 U9461192
One of the main troubles of the financial aspect of devolution was the lack of fiscal autonomy for Scotland.
A block grant was inevitable when the legislation was created by a centralist party like Labour.
The consequence is that what little debate takes place in Scotland is simply about how to distribute the cash, not about how to raise it and how much to raise.
The sensible process would be for Scotland to have fiscal autonomy - raise its own taxes, and pay a proportionate sum to Westminster for the common services provided at UK level.
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Not a single refutation of my posting at 122 Getridofgordonnow? What's that phrase? oh yes "You're not singing anymore"
The IMF has mostly praised Brown's financial policies for 10 years. You can go to the website and read their reports.
the UK rightwingers will soon be feeling the same sickening feelings of impotent rage and failure as the Republican right in the USA. Again!
Don't get me wrong, there's quite a few changes I would like to see in Labour's policies and the Iraq war is a disaster. No-one will convince me that the answer to these problems is vote in the Tories or someone even further right.
It has been a spectacular week in some ways. A bottle of bubbly tonight I think.
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"The prime minister has hailed Labour's Glenrothes by-election victory as a vote of confidence in the government's handling of the economic crisis."
Tried to test Gordon's theory down my local pub this lunch-time . . . .
. . . landlord threatened to bar me if I didn't stop . . .
. . . he'd got 20 customers in and not one of them could drink from laughing so much!
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re155 oh what a sad person you are. Gordon Brown said he would never use his children in politics but why let the facts get in the way of a good rant.
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What if real economic growth is sluggish, goods and service inflation low, but speculative house price growth/stock price growth is high?
You mean exactly like we had for the past decade? Apart from the stock prices obviously. They were hammered by the pensions raid. And the 'auction' of 3G licences hammered the Telecoms. ANd then of course there was Railtrak. (The forerunner of what will happen to HBos/LLoyds and RBS for the avoidance of doubt - they're being set up for the full 'nationalisation' ie asset grab and the shareholders, pension funds etc can go hang).
Of course we could have just gone for the boring old slow, real, sustainable growth. Instead of the 'Let's have it all now' government and consumer binge we did get.
For a government, as with banking, boring and predictable is good.
Should they deliberately cause a recession and unemployment to cool things down?
Well we know the answer to that. What this government did is nothing. Worse than nothing in fact.
They turned a blind eye to what was happening and set up a system that guaranteed no intervention.
Didn't even acknowledge there was a problem. Denied there was slow real growth. Denied all the growth was simply a manifestation of soaring house prices and borrowed money.
Wait till it all blows up and then blame the yanks, blame the banks and lookie-here, the good old BBC already thoughtfully dug out all there 1980's archive footage to blame Margaret Thatcher. It's almost like they had their excuses planned in advance.
One minute there's no problem at all. The next second they're taking us for a loooong walk down memory lane to pin the blame on somebody who has been out of office for twenty years. Why stop there? That William the Conqueror - it's all his fault. And the Romans - what have they ever done for us eh?
You might not like the Tories 1990's recession but they didn't just slash interest rates to 3% in an attempt to reinflate house prices and borrowing.
This bust will be longer and deeper and more destructive than anything the Thatcher or Major government presided over. The desperate actions being taken as we speak - interest rates slashed, printing presses cranked up to eleven will make even previous Labour busts look like a stroll in the park.
And, since we're all reasonably intelligent here, with one notable exception, I think we all know this to be true.
Which is why if I was Gordon Brown I'd dump the whole lot in Cameron's lap. Take one for the team as it were.
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#119 Susan_Croft
"The Scottish want their cake and eat it and at the moment under Brown their getting it. The English need to wake up and realise that Scotland in all but name is independent they dont want the label British but they do want your taxes."
I think if you put that to most people in Scotland they would strenuously disagree with you. For starters if we were independent in all but name, why would the SNP exist and have significant support?
As far as wanting English tax payers money in relation to the bank bail out,the cash came from borrowed money, not tax payers. Any proceeds received from the sale of preferential shares will go to 'paying off' this debt.
"It wouldnt matter how much they hated G. Brown and Labour they would never go against one of their own for an English person."
Could you please explain how you can stand to live in Scotland and on what you base the aforementioned comment? You come across as very bitter indeed. I have at times experienced both derogatory remarks and even violence whilst living in England based on my nationality, but I choose to think that this comes from a small minded minority and that most English people have no problems with their neighbours within the UK. As a Scot I can confidently say the same about my own countrymen.
Perhaps instead of reading and accepting media hype you should do some research and understand fully the issues at hand, instead of relying on 'prejudice'.
"All thats happened is that another voice has been added to those already who can vote on English matters in parliament and our MPs can not vote on Scottish matters and this particular candidate is a real boot licker for Brown very poor choice indeed he cant string two word together.
England needs its own Parliament and to boot Brown out."
Westminster being the UK parliament, Scots, Welsh and N.I. MP's can and will vote on English only issues as their parties or conscience dictates. I'm in total agreement with you that England needs its own legislative body. Would you prefer a devolved English parliament whilst retaining the UK parliament for some issues, or would you prefer complete independence?
Also, you're quite correct about the labour incumbant being a relatively poor choice.
Here's hoping you get on better with your neighbours.
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All these reports that this is a vote of confidence is just a joke. How is this result a vote of confidence in Brown? A strong Labour seat in Scotland is hardly a good indicator. If he really wants a vote of confidence he should call a general election. Lets see how confident HE is of the result.
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balhamu
yep
'UK Consumer analyst'
Foruth quarter 2008
'Consumer slump lies ahead'
Read and weep.
This government has left us in a proper pickle.
Gordon Brown built a boom on credit and it is now well and truly bust. For years.
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You heard it here first. As I predicted at #45 above, according to this webiste:
"The main mortgage lenders have started to respond to the government's demand that they should cut their mortgage rates."
Anyone want to start a petition on the No.10 website for the canonisation of St Gordon of Brown?
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Nick,
Here, there is no such thing as a 'Brown bounce'
As the City people like to describe it what we have seen here instead is a 'dead cat bounce'. G Brown is a temporary recipient of that phenomenon but with another million people on the dole by the time of the next UK election and BoS branches from Methil to Buckhaven in Fife closed, G Brown will become a footnote in UK political history.
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# 134
I think you will find that Chuck is down in Bristol. I don't think he's Banksy though!
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#173 getridofgordonnow
I've been banging on about this for ages. We are leaving precisely because of all the points you mentioned in comment 173.
More and more of us are beginning to realise that there is life after Gordon Brown - it's just not here in the UK.
Good luck.
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166 Saga
Labour could use.
Seriously..We don't know what we're doing.
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Re 105 [and 153]
"Membership of the tuggiish Bullingdon Club ( Cameron and Osborne) is not likely to produce politicians with the knowledge and experience required for dealing with international economic problems."
And presumably Darling's membership of the Trotskyists gave him exactly the right kind of knowledge and experience to cope with the kind of mess GB has landed us with.
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When are you Tory bloggers going to address the fact that the ToryHome page reported George Osborne's satisfaction rate was 2, and that was just the Conservative opinion. This after Rupert Murdoch's disciple on earth said in the Spectator that George and Dave had lost the plot where the economy was concerned. He also had fulsome praise for Gordon Brown and his handling of the economy. He said all the Tories could do was whinge but they offered no coherent policies at all. I wonder if he is speaking on behalf of Mr Murdoch. I don't think he would make these comments without first running them past his boss. David Cameron has already said he has no intention of sacking useless, out of his depth, George and, furthermore, he has no intention of sacking Caroline Spelman either, whatever the outcome of the investigation currently taking place on the funding of her nanny. It seems as if anything goes in the Tory party. The Tories have blown it, and they know it. When are you going to wake up and smell the coffee.
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I have a feeling there are more SCOTs down here than English up there.
They knock us but can't keep away. The government was made up of a fair few of them too.
Suppose we should be flattered but some think we are flattened.
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Brown's comment that this vote is a sign of confidence in Labours Economic Policies is downright insulting.
There isn't a person in the world who has confidence in any countries economic policies.
The fact Labour won this seat is only testimony to local ingrained political mind sets which are almost set in stone, althoughh even the local granite seems to be crumbling.
Browns comments look silly and desperate.
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#181 Robin
Is it subscription only - I'm having trouble finding it still? Fancy providing a link to it (or a link to the page with the link - I know you can't link to the PDF)
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@122
Leverage dear boy
They had already borrowed their £1000 and lent it about 40 times over so when they were asked for the original £1000 back they didnt have it and no one else would lend them it
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#167 boardstupid
If you were talking about my #81 you've been merked.
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What has happened to the Lib Dems? Fourth place behind the Tories is abysmal.
Are they now so irrelevant that noone even bothers to mention them?
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So now Brown admits that the UK is in part cause of the global credit crisis.
even though the UK is to blame - of course - it is nothing to do with Gordon Brown!!!
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r: 175 The Notting Hill Hammer
"The IMF has mostly praised Brown's financial policies for 10 years. You can go to the website and read their reports. "
Have they? I googled it and it was almost impossible to find anything other than warnings from the IMF regarding the way that the uk has been run, and in their recent report they think we're going to have the worst recession in the developed world.
Or maybe you're talking about the statements which Brown/Darling themselves made to/at the IMF? (I looked on the orficial imf site, and the only links I could find which praised the uk on an economic front were "statements" made by brown/darling themselves)
Also, don't forget that Brown's been cooking the books since 1997, so to an outsider it would look like we were doing well because Brown hides all the debt.
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If Glenrothes is like the rest of Scotland, then most voters are on the dole, or work for local government/NHS/schools. Hence they will be part of the Labour payroll vote, and think they are immune to any worries about the real economy.
They will get a dose of reality after we get a chance to vote in the general election.
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the UK rightwingers will soon be feeling the same sickening feelings of impotent rage and failure as the Republican right in the USA
The difference is that in the USA the rightwingers fully deserve to be thrown out of power for their economic mismanagement and Iraq war.
Here we need to throw out our own government. For the self-same sins.
I don't subscribe to this left-wing/right-wing thing. This government hitched our wagon to the US horse in Iraq, in their insane levels of deficit spending and in their failure of regulatory policy. It's seductive for the congenitally socialist to blame the Republicans and kick the Tory party but the fact is that it was the socialist, British Labour Party led by Gordon Brown that perpetrated the self-same crimes of betrayal on the voters goodwill and trust here in the UK. Not the Tories. They're not in power. Haven't been for a decade.
It really was not their fault this time.
It would have been perfect orthodox symmetry had it been a Republican-Tory alliance as in Reagan-Thatcher. But it wasn't. It was a Bush/Brown-Blair alliance of idiocy.
Bush and his supporters have been rightly punished and, for the good of the UK, it is only right that those responsible in the UK be similarly rewarded. Bye bye Brown.
But, as Glenrothes demonstrates, we must be ever vigilant. The forces of lies and misinformation and distortion of the facts are strong in the Labour party. Their control of the BBC is most powerful. The people are still particularly susceptible to disinformation beamed into their house by the BBC.
Hence, as I pointed out, the day that the government nationalised the banks it was not reported as an end to Gordon Brown's decade of prudence. It was not reported as an indictment of failed Labour policy. There was no critique of Gordon Brown's failed FSA/BoE/treasury tri-partate initiative. Or the failure of the government or BoE to avoid a bust in house prices.
How was it reported? It was reported, complete with archive pictures of pin-striped yuppies, mobile phones with batteries the size of a motorbike battery and girls with massive shoulder pads. The BBC reported, on whose instigation I can't imagine, that this was not a failure of the Labour government of the past ten years but a failure of Margaret Thatcher.
Absolutely astonishing. And the damage is done.
That's how it has been reported. The great lie has been told and repeated.
ID cards anybody? I'm constantly stopped in the street by people desperate for their ID cards. Yes Hazel. Of course you are.
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Gordon Bennett. When will the media wake up and realise they are being led by the nose by Mandy & Co. Labour lose this seat - never! It was all a con right from the start to add to Brown`s alleged bounce. Let Gordon have a bye election in England and see how he makes out away from the Scottish mafia.
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188 Goldy
Come on be serious, you were the one waxing lyrical about the "return" of the holy trinity of Blair, Mandleson and Brown.
Ask anyone outside your bedsit, who'll agree that this is a good thing. It was these three that got us into this mess in the first place.
Pick one
Defense
Crime
NHS
Education
Apart from the Government Drones, a majority of the public sector workers who. Hey! actually produce things are saying that the government is a disaster.
We have a Home secretary who states. And she actually said it.
People are queing for ID cards. Who? Where are these people? Back when Robin Cook was foreign Secretary I remember People queing for passports.
Darling clearly has no clue, and looks like a bloody Rabbit in the headlights, when he dosn't have the pre prepared script from Brown.
The Miliband brothers are randomly going round making comittments we as a country cannot keep. (Troop commitments in Congo and 80% Carbon Free emissions....sigh)
Mr and Mrs Balls, sprew out schemes, watch them fail at great expense and either try and sweep them under the carpet or let someone else take the fall for them (SATS and the risable HIPs for which she let poor old Ruth Kelly take a slap for).
Now they've rotated through most of the people who potentially had Talent.
They were never going to use Skinner.
Shame they don't use Bob Marshall Andrews, he's the only one I have any time for.
The rejects have gone mad, Blunkett and Clarke. Not to mention Prescott and his one man crusade to look a fool about class and embarris his poor charming wife.
The previous leader has his head fully stuck in the feeding bowl.
The there we have Gordon, reacting in a knee jerk fashion all over the place, believeing the good and denying the bad.
Pour yourself a coffee and take a sniff.
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#189 flamepatricia
re#179
Are you claiming to be as ignorant and small minded as Susan_Croft?
"I have a feeling there are more SCOTs down here than English up there. "
It wouldn't surprise me if this was the case, if the high paid jobs have to be dragged down to London and the South East its inevitable that there will be people from all over the UK seeking to do those jobs, some of whom will be Scots.
"They knock us but can't keep away. The government was made up of a fair few of them too. "
I don't remeber 'knocking' Englsih people in my post, only a small ignorant minority, but if you want to rant about nasty Scots why don't you let it all out and tell us what you really mean?
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You are sooo gullible Nick Robinson.
1. Brown takes the country into recession and unheard of financial crisis
2. Brown spends £400bn to TRY and get the financial system out of deadlock
3. The rest of Brown's union and all its people and businesses are left to get on with it (ie: go bust)
4. Brown wins a byelection
You call that the Brown Bounce?
I'd call it some other brown thing. The only thing Brown represents is Brown and the Scots who voted for him, well, I wish that country could have complete independence and take the blethering windbag (by then former) MP for Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy and lock him up in Lockerbie castle and throw away the key and there he can contemplate his 'vision for Britain' until he goes stark staring bonkers.
Can you picture Brown's future with an independent Scotland? Talk about the Linlithgow question..
GC
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can never trust these journalists - can you - they have no knowledge of distance from Gordon and Sarah's home to Glenrothes - certainly not 4 miles that's for sure!!!!
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#197 SecretSkivver
Rare for a Tory to post here - given that you seem to be threatening a dire future for Scotland when a Tory Government takes over down south - that's not surprising.
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#71 U9461192
"Labour recession. Labour's fault."
A very simplistic viewpoint calling for a very simplistic response...
****
you see there is this big place called "foreign", and it is filled with smaller places with funny names like Iceland, Germany, Italy, USA, France and thats just the closest ones.
If you look upwards, sometimes there are big white birds in the sky, if they don't flap their wings then they are called Aeroplanes and they go to all the small places in "Foreign". as it turns out, all of "Foreign" are having trouble with their Money boxes at the moment and it isn't just the fault of Wicked Uncle Gordon.
If you ever see a Green and Blue football then it is most probably a model of "Foreign" and is called "a Globe" the green is all the small places with the funny names and the blue is the Sea (there might be some white bits too but don't worry too much about them).
it is from the word Globe that we get the word Global, and if we see "Global" in front of the word "Crisis" then that usually means that all the funny places in "Foreign" are in trouble too.
When Auntie Maggie and Uncle John each had their "National Crises" the rest of "Foreign" were doing alright, so much so that the funny named places came and bought up all of our best toys like the power and water companies which meant that we all have to pay more to play with them. Auntie Maggie was so angry that she broke all the other toys like "My first Coal Mine" and "the Boys own Shipbuilding set"
and even our Train set, (although, Uncle Gordon took back the tracks, so they have to pay us to use them now)
****
Please, when commenting, try not to ignore the small details like, for instance, the rest of the world (i.e. Foreign). "Global" oil prices, and myriad international problems all of which contributed to the issue.
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No187 Yes it seems to be the case. The winner of the Nobel prize for economics has recently said that Mr Darling and Mr Brown are dealing with the international crises with 'stunning clarity'.
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All of a sudden the media are telling us there was an election last night which Labour won.
Seeing as it was already a Labour stronghold shouldn't they be saying the seat which Labour held.
That's what usually happens during elections.
Perhaps they are trying to spin that Labour won it from some other party.
Chance would be a fine thing.
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Glenrothes shows that people are beginning to realise what they would lose if Labour lost the next election. The rest of the world lauds Gordon Brown's rescue of the financial sector, and Britons whinge and moan about it. Anyone who believes this is all Gordon's fault in the first place - if that's true, why on earth would every other country be copying us? Face up to the facts: you may not like GB but he's the only one offering economic sense right now.
To those who say there is little to show for 10 years of Labour - what planet are you living on? How about:
NHS waiting times down to just 9 weeks from 18 months under the Tories?
Millions earning a decent minimum wage? Free childcare for all?
State pension worth £90 a week?
More students receiving university grants than ever before, thanks to making the well-off pay a bit for their education?
The lowest income taxes for 70 years, and more pensioners paying no tax than ever?
Come off it - you may feel tired of spin and 'boring Brown', but he's achieved more for the ordinary people of this country than Cameron's lot ever will.
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#119 Susan_Croft and #189 flamepatricia
You seem to have a strange way of judging people based on where they were born (or is it just not being English?).
Maybe we should develop "English-ist" for your kind of dinosaur.
These may be your American equivalents
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All this proves is a bounce in Scotland. The next election won't be won or lost in Scotland, it will be won or lost in the Midlands and southern towns. The Tories are still above 40% in the polls and on course to win the next election.
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206
Since when did New Labour MPs listen to Nobel Prize winners certainly didn't listen to one in 2003.
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208 ace100uk
"The rest of the world lauds Gordon Brown's rescue of the financial sector"
A couple of weeks ago on Newsnight, a french minister was interviewed and told the interviewer that the BBC/labour spin for that was totally false and extremely offensive.
It was interesting to watch a foreign minister openly say that the bbc and labour were lying.
She said that although Brown had "contributed" to the general discussion, it was the politicians in the individual countries who decided what to do and when to do it.
In fact she even implied that it was actually the other way around to what the bbc/labour are telling people; that most of europe was bailing out the uk by bringing in the extra european bailouts ahead of when they otherwise might have been needed.
Other countries are bailing us out, not the other way around.
Gordon Brown is not the saviour, he's the destroyer.
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September 13th 2007.
Anyone remember why that day is important??
Well you should do - because whilst Gordon was brewing a pot of tea that Thursday, Mrs Thatcher snuck behind Gordon's back and pulled all the levers in the control room at 10 Downing Street.
In doing so - she of course caused all the financial problems we are now experiencing.
Thatcher!!
Thatcher was cunning, even though everyone knew she was to blame, she covered her tracks by causing the US banks to crash (not the UK ones - it definitely started in the US, not the UK. That was what was so cunning about how she covered up her tracks).
Now - she would have got away scot free - but luckily Gordon noticed what she did and let the BBC know - so they could set the record straight.
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Robin,
I've found a quote with the 180% figure in! So I have to say you are not completely making up (maybe quoting someone who is making it up or has their facts wrong though).
International Herald Tribune says debt is 180% of disposable income
Their source for this is an interview with a guy called Chris Tapp, from the charity Credit Action.
I can't find this quote elsewhere. Maybe you can help me, and point me to where the statistics actually are.
However, looking on Credit Action's website, they say that personal debt at the end of September 2008 was 1,457 billion pounds (1,219 secured on housing, 238 billion unsecured). They give no figures for disposable income.
This total figure for personal debt is comparable to the BERR document I referred to that said personal debt was 154% of disposable income at the end of 2007 ("Household Monitoring Debt Paper H2, BERR, 2007"). They say debt was 1.4 trillion pounds (i.e. 1,400 billion) at the end of 2007.
So total personal debt appears unchanged in the time period we are looking at. Whether the decrease in disposable income we have seen is enough to drive debt up to 180% remains to be seen - maybe you can link to the stats? (for the Credit Action figure to be right, disposable income must now be £810 billion versus £910 billion at the end of 2007 - an 11% fall).
BESIDES
Do we care that mortgage debt is now quite high? (and it is this that makes personal debt over 154% of disposable income, rather than unsecured debt which is small beer really)
Consider a situation in which EVERYONE rents housing from landlords.
Mortgage debt will be zero. Total personal debt will be £238 billion.
Are we better off in this situation?
If we are, would a solution be to Government to compulsory purchase everybodys houses (enabling them to pay back their mortgages). The Government can then rent the houses back to them. Personal debt has been reduced to 238 billion.
It has to be a winner. It would solve "the personal debt problem" in one swoop.
What do you think, Robin? Good idea? Personal debt reduced by 84% - the debt problem basically over?
Or maybe mortgage debt isn't such a problem after all?
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Perhaps if the BBC and the rest of the news media hadn't relied on the betting odds at the bookies for information, rather than collecting any polling data themselves, we could get the facts straight about this so-called Brown Bounce -- instead of being deliberately mislead about it by the Labour politicians.
The campaign suggests that the good people of Glenrothes (including all the candidates) have no interest whatsoever with anything in Westminster, and stayed precisely in their ways.
The share of the Labour vote was increased, but the majority was cut because the LibDem and Conservative voters went for the SNP.
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#210 britishjohn
"The next election won't be won or lost in Scotland, it will be won or lost in the Midlands and southern towns."
Given the number of constituencies, that's hardly a staggering conclusion.
However, it also helps to explain why most Scots support SNP or Labour for Westminster elections, and why support for independence will rise with a Tory Government at Westminster.
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Yawn.
Please don't vote. Any of you. If we carry on like this, tacitly endorsing the media driven, empty husks of myopic power-consumed politicians then where are we going? We will become a simmering ball of apathy, antipaphy and anger.
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Can it really be right that the BOE announces a 1.5% rate cut on the day of a by election - shouldn't this sort of action be prohibited?
Its seems very convenient to me.
I have just being listening to Peston on the news saying that Darling told the banks off and they went away duly admonished and repaired their ways - I don't think so .
Son of Lord Peston labour peer is taking some liberties there.
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#205
I do hope yopu copied and pasted that.
I'd hate to think you'd wasted so much time to be rude just to little old me. It does however encapsulate nicely the contempt which Labour apologists, MPs and Gordon Brown treats the electorate.
If you're wondering why you're so far behind in the polls, Gordon Brown's 'uniquely placed to weather the crisis' economy aside, then you might want to revisit how you and your party treats the electorate whenever they raise any issues of concern.
Hope that helps.
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#214 balhamu
...please tell us where all this money is going to come from to compulsory purchase all these houses....... we've only just bailed out the banks!
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145 virtual silver lady
Have a good sniff lady I can smell the fear from here. you lost we won, tough. no excuses. Bye bye DC and GO you wont be missed.
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Brown thinks Nu-Labour are lauded
But the truth is they're not--- they are sordid:
Swallow Nu-Lab's line
And give up your spine
And you will be well-rewarded!
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I'm disappointed at some of Labour's mistakes and lack of ambition but the overwhelming reason I want to leave the country is the business and society that's been driven by fat-cats and Tory boys - the stuff that caused the crash.
I have a neighbour who can work anywhere in the world as well and he's stuck here for different reasons. His view is similar - the problem is arrogant big business and people who can't give a damn.
The real issue is broken fundamentals: the British are just way too cluttered and isolationist. They lack leadership and social skills: and Tory bullying and corrosive attitudes don't help. You think folks like Guido are standing up for you? People like him are part of the problem.
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re: 221, grandantidote
Good to see you grandy! I see that you're not in hiding like you were after Glasgow East. Almost a whole week you stayed away... looks to me like you can give it out but you can't take it ;)
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All very interesting and proves the people of Scotland are keen to talk and act independent but when push comes they realize their bread is buttered by Westminster.
Would Mr Salmon go for a devolution referendum tomorrow?
The SNP has peaked and now watch the downward spiral.
I can understand why Conservative voters voted Labour.
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#216 oldnat
Given the number of constituencies, that's hardly a staggering conclusion.
It wasn't meant to be a 'staggering conclusion', it was meant to remind people that this is no big deal and not something to celebrate if you are a Labour voter. It is equivalent to the Tories celebrating and crowing about a comeback because they won a seat like Eastbourne where Labour are 3rd. When they start winning by-elections in places like Worcester then we can say that Brown and Labour are out of the hole.
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#223 CEH
I'm disappointed at some of Labour's mistakes and lack of ambition but the overwhelming reason I want to leave the country is the business and society that's been driven by fat-cats and Tory boys - the stuff that caused the crash.
Don't you think that all politicians (Labour, Lib-Dems and Conservative) fall into the fat-cat category? You only have to take a look at their expenses to see that.
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221:
You must have used the 'sniff of fear' analogy across nearly all the blogs now grandy. Try and come up with something new if you can. It's getting a tad boring.
Gordon Brown is stepping out like the bear from the old beer adverts thinking that he is the new super hero of the financial and political world. When the economic chickens come home to roost he'll trip over his own shoelaces and be right back where he started. Watch this space!
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#225 mikethebiscuit
You display a remarkable degree of ignorance.
"the people of Scotland are keen to talk and act independent"
There is no more unity of political opinion than in any other country.
"they realize their bread is buttered by Westminster."
The latest available data showed that the Scottish fiscal deficit was less than that of the UK as a whole.
"devolution referendum"
We already have devolution. The political question in Scotland is whether we need the UK layer of Government between Scotland and Europe
"The SNP has peaked"
I think you'll find that when England elects a Tory Government for the UK, the SNP vote will increase.
"I can understand why Conservative voters voted Labour."
So can I.
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Given that this was a 'safe' labour seat, the fact that it was under threat from the SNP shows that Labour cannot take Scotland for granted.
Despite all the money that is lavished on Scotland, and the unfair democratic arrangements that have resulted from this one-sided half baked devolution, a good deed never goes unpunished.
Labour has tried to bribe Scotland, but the plans have come back to bite them.
As full separation is now unlikely, what is Labour going to do about the democratic deficit for England?
Scottish MPs at Westmisnter can no longer decide Scottish issues - because those have been devolved to Holyrood. Yet those same (obsolete) Scottish MPs can still vote on purely English matters.
How can that be right?
Scotland is a wonderful place - but the total population is very small. There are as many people in London as Scotland and Wales put togther. Labour has messed around with the constitution - and as usual has created a total mess.
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@ 198
I don't subscribe to this left-wing/right-wing thing.
In the traditional (with me, anyway) spirit of pre weekend truth and reconciliation, I would like to say that I think the above is pretty much correct - at least in so much as what is the real reason for all the trouble we're having.
It's not particularly to do with Labour or Tory, it's to do with all the self regarding and pompous people in positions of power and influence pretending to know what they're doing - that goes for Gordon Brown, Mervyn King, Alan Greenspan, Fred Goodwin, Eddie George, Howard and Gavyn and David all those other absurd men with a variety of Davis or Davies as their other name.
Tired, middle aged, white males of a certain type going around in their suits and shirts and (purple) ties, pontificating in phoney, authoritative sounding voices about this that and the other. They know nothing - and the one really good thing about all this is that we realise that now, n'est ce pas?
It's an absolute joke and I find it very depressing, to be honest with you.
You know that stupid jibe you often hear from the more backward anti PC types about promoting disabled black lesbians? ... well, let me tell you, that is exactly what we need to do. No kidding whatsoever.
The type of people who currently rise to the top are simply not up to it - we need to CHANGE things.
Yeah we do.
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Nobody cares what the truth is. People just want the legend. Gordon and the media are just giving people what they want.
It worked for John Wayne...
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#226 britishjohn
OK, I understand your point. Thanks for the clarification.
However, you're still going to be vulnerable to social policies in England being determined by Labour Scottish MPs, as long as asymmetric devolution is in place.
At UK elections, Scots will continue to return more Labour than Tory MPs, although most Scots don't particularly approve of our MPs voting on English matters, we don't care that much about it.
This is an issue that you guys need to sort out.
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"I have just being listening to Peston on the news saying that Darling told the banks off and they went away duly admonished and repaired their ways - I don't think so."
Nor do I... but there was a tacit admission in his report that the banking crisis isn't by any means over.
Darling told the banks that "if they didn't cut their rates and they needed a further bailout, it may prove 'politically difficult' for the government to sanction one". Doncha just love that 'further bailout' part, and of course it will come to pass if banks can only charge .5% above the LIBOR on existing mortgages, first time buyers can forget it.
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Oldnat
Would you be prepared to have a small wager with the proceeds going to either your or mine named charity.
I am saying at the general election UK the SNP will have less MP's than the do at the start of the election campaign.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Ali spun so Tony could lie, Tony lied so Gordon could spend, Gordon spent so we all could pay, and pay, and pay, and pay, and pay, and pay, and pay, and pay....
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sagamix @231:
I suspect that most people are probably going about their daily business thinking to themselves 'Where the hell is our Barack Obama?'.
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#229 oldnat
You say: "The latest available data showed that the Scottish fiscal deficit was less than that of the UK as a whole"
I'm not familiar with the data to which you refer, but the fact is the Scottish banks have just been bailed out by the British taxpayer. It's doubtful they would have been rescued if Scotland were totally independent. It is also true to say that the funding of Scotland by the Barnet Formula is now considered unduly favourable to Scotland compared with the rest of the UK.
You say: "We already have devolution. The political question in Scotland is whether we need the UK layer of Government between Scotland and Europe"
Yes, but it's a one sided devolution. If Scotland breaks away from the rest of the UK, that will have implications for all of us. Is it too much to ask that the people of England (with its much larger population) also have some say in the matter?
Labour's original solution was to set up regional assemblies for England. However, most people realised this would be a total waste of time and money, creating yet another tier of bureaucracy.
Just to be clear on this - I am not anti-Scottish! Scotland is a great place populated with great people. However, as an Englishman I am sorry to say we have not been treated fairly or equally by Labour's plans.
If Scotland does decide to go it alone, then that will be a great shame - although it will save English taxpayers quite a lot of money.
I believe we are stronger together.
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#235 mikethebiscuit
I'll get back to you on that - I need to check that some Labour MPs haven't died of shock at winning an election!
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I do not think we should knock the voters of Glenrothes who turned out in pretty reasonable numbers to exercise their democratic right, benefit-dependent or not! When the rest of us get our chance, as we surely will, we should vote according to our own views and values and leave others to theirs. By the way, although they're trying hard, Cameron and Osborne are no Barack Obama, being far more establishment than anyone and far closer to the 'bankers' who got us in to the current mess.
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Translation: Tory party supporter plants loaded question because they want David Cameron to win.
Reality: Problems are often complex and quick fix solutions done on a whim rarely work or last the distance.
Outcome: Gordon Brown is the real deal and will lead Labour to a landslide victory at the next General Election.
Enjoy.
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#239 DistantTraveller
The problem about blogging here as well as on a Scottish blog, is that issues come up here that have been addressed at length in Scotland.
However......
"as an Englishman I am sorry to say we have not been treated fairly or equally by Labour's plans."
Other than Labour activists, you would be hard pressed to find any Scots who would disagree with that.
"Labour's original solution was to set up regional assemblies for England."
I have sympathy with those in the North of England, who probably suffer fron London-centric policies, but that is a matter for them.
The UK Government is a strange creature. It is simultaneously the UK Government for "reserved" matters, but also the Government for England (where it is not representative of the people). The greatest difficulty you have in solving this is the doctrine of "Parliamentary Sovereignty", which allows the UK Government to do anything it wants. Scottish Constitutional law does not have this idea. The people are sovereign.
I see no reason why you can't have an English Government and Parliament (if you want these to be separately elected from your UK MPs is a matter for you).
"If Scotland breaks away from the rest of the UK, that will have implications for all of us. Is it too much to ask that the people of England (with its much larger population) also have some say in the matter?"
Did you suggest that the people of Indonesia should have a say over the independence of East Timor? Independence is a matter for Scotland alone, as endorsed by the representatives of Scotland in the Claim of Right. Actually, my preference is for a Confederal UK - that does need consensus with the other nations in the UK (and possibly the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands as well).
This post is already too long - I'll deal with the financial aspects separately.
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Who would have believed that Gordon could turn round such an impossible position in such a short time! Credit where credit's due (if you can use that phrase in the current climate), he's done a fantastic job.
Or has he? Thinking about it, on the basis of Gordon's past record, it must actually be the work of the Master (Mandy) or possibly Camby, or both behind the scenes pulling the strings.
I still don't think that anybody in their right mind would want to win the next general election.
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General election now.
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Strange how much the moderation speeds up immediately after Glenrothes...
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#239 DistantTraveller (Part II)
You will be aware that there are currently no full accruals based UK accounts. These were promised in the 2008 budget to be issued for the first time for the 2009-10 financial year and will not be available until after the General Election.
Currently the best data that we have are government statistics. For 14 years, the Scottish Office/Executive/Government statisticians have been unravelling Scottish statistics from UK data in the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) reports
Their conclusion was that Scotland in 2006-7 "had a deficit of £2.7 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) including an estimated geographical share of North Sea revenue."
According to the International Monetary Fund, 2007 World Economic Outlook, the UK fiscal deficit in 2006-7 was 2.5% of GDP.
I'll give you time to absorb that before I deal with the current banking crisis.
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#239 DistantTraveller (Part III)
"the fact is the Scottish banks have just been bailed out by the British taxpayer"
The UK taxpayer has so far provided nothing from taxation.
The real cost of the 31 billion for HBOS/RBS (or the part of it that is actually used) will be the difference between the cost of borrowing it and the 12% being charged to the banks for it along with the value of the preference shares when they are sold back to the private sector.
Banking is a globalised industry, and the UK is supporting RBS and HBOS because they are seen as being significant benefits to the economy, once the crisis is over. For example, it would have been open to the Government to insist that RBS sold off ABN-AMRO to increase its capitalisation, instead of providing the capital themselves.
It is not supporting "Scottish" banks, but future money-spinners headquartered in the UK.
As far as our banks are concerned, they might not have been able to get the credit (I don't know) to bail out the whole of these banking empires, but the sale of foreign banks that they owned would have significantly reduced the need for capitalisation, hence the full 31 billion would not have been required.
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224ptppl
I am sorry but your wrong again my longest period of these blogs except for the odd post has been in the last week, and I certainly wasn't aware that I was [if I was]away at the time of Glasgow east, but do try to be happy for me.He He!
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Hmmm! a safe seat for Labour, to brag that it's a turning point from a PM that lacks charisma and the gumption to lead our country is another question entirely with this lot. The track record of this Labour party leaves a lot to be desired, there are to many if's and buts with Labour, their spending is just as what i was in the early 70's that nearly brought the UK to it's knees,.
Now we are seeing a repeat performance, something that I don't really want to experience again, in the early 70's as a young married soldier I was living on benefits because the wages were so low for a soldier that we had to be on supplementary benefit and even that was like being on the dole. Maggie Thatcher got us off the breadline and we enjoyed better wages
This marked my life where I distrust this Labour Government and the only party I trust is the Conservatives and no other even though at this present time I trust neither.
This country is falling down an abyss to which it cannot return,Labour and the Conservatives have wrecked the fundamental reason for life in the UK is now ruined so much so that I am no longer proud to be British.
The joining of the UK to the EU was a big mistake, it has undermined the basic principle of the English way of life and made us subservient to Brussels and the Quango within.
The immigration laws are a mess, the security of data is at the most questionable especially when we are being asked to buy our own identity in the form of an expensive piece of plastic.
I have now 10 years to retirement, a prospect that fills me with dread, I just hope I don't see life beyond finishing work at 65 because all I can see in the future is a struggle to pay bills and live in a society that I can no longer afford to live in.
Regards
Nev George
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226 britsh john
#It is equivalent to the Tories celebrating and crowing about a comeback because they won a seat like Eastbourne
do you mean in the same way that they crowed about Henley?
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#221 grandantidote Good evening
....Have a good sniff lady I can smell the fear from here. you lost we won, tough. no excuses. Bye bye DC and GO you wont be missed.....
Enjoy the brief warm glow old boy, Gordon Brown will soon be going the same way as the uneducated Texan Hill Billy who foisted a flawed US Foreign Policy on the world, unfortunately for most of the Electorate it won't be as soon as January 19th.
I don't particularly follow American politics but once Barack Obama was confirmed I breathed an involuntary sigh of relief. That though is as nothing compared to the considerably deeper sigh I look forward to when Golom Brown hands back the keys to Number 10
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242:
I've said it before and I'll say it again. In your dreams Charlie!
249;
The only response to your closing words I can really come up with is she she!
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228 miss waldorf
So the smell of fear is making you a tad weary, If I were a Tory it would make me a tad weary, but it is a little more accurate than mcbroon, dufbroon, mr bean, tony bliar and all the other rather child like names you Tories attribute to Labour MPs, and of course lest not forget the poems do they not make you just a tad weary and robinjd's repetative "call an election now"don't you find that a little tiresome, no I guess all those things are OK, at least my observatios of the smell of fear, although doing as intended, annoying you and others, it isn't abusive our silly name calling.
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251:
I honestly can't remember any crowing about Henley. It was a routine by election to fill the space vacated by the previous encumbent who had moved onto London. There was a little bit of tittering because of the lost deposit but no more.
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Gordon Brown like George Bush is associated with policy failure. I confidently predict he will eventually meet the same fate!
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I would love to have some of what Charles is on. It might make me more content. Rose coloured spectacles would suit my greying hair and I could then leave these blogs to the Stepford husbands.
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252 polero
#Enjoy the brief warm glow old boy, Gordon Brown will soon be going the same way.
well polero we'll have to see about that wont we, the Tory predictions on here of late have been way of course so not much to fear there then.
I suppose if the Tories could come up with a few policies we might take them seriously but it doesn't look like they will.
So we Labour lads and lasses will sleep sound while you Tories will toss and turn wondering whats happened to Dave and George.
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254:
You misunderstand my girlfriend. It's you that makes her weary. Although a little more tolerant I tend to agree with her. In terms of throwing out insults you're inclined to be a bit of a one trick pony. The sniffing thing is rather played out now. I suggest you drop it old friend!
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25:
I for one will be sleeping soundly tonight safe in the knowledge that at some point in the near future the worm will once again turn against your man. Night Night. Sweet dreams!
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I don't read the claim of right that way, and a new constitutional settlement could change things in any case. The Scots can't leave the union without the say so of the English and Welsh as far as I'm concerned. I tend to favour doing away with the "nation" status of the regions, and more simplicity, clarity, and consensus would help.
Gordon Brown helped architect the surge strategy and bring the US around to a more multilateral approach. I can't recall the Tories having that level of insight or fairness in national or international politics. Perhaps, you'd care to illuminate us. There's a yawning Tory policy gap. Go on, the internet is your stage. Spill.
The last time I checked the Tories cut all the wage boosting training perks, downsized the military, and emptied the supply depos for the, then, fashionable 'just in time' system. So, don't pull that one about dear old comfortable "Maggie" looking after "our boys". Bunkum. Thatcher destroyed opportunities and gave an incomes boost for a few by raping the infrastructure and putting millions on the dole. And I'll weigh those facts against any marketing school weaseling from the Tory crib sheet.
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255 sicilian
You Tory sympathisers are amazing
#I honestly can't remember any crowing about Henley. It was a routine by election to fill the space vacated by the previous encumbent who had moved onto London. There was a little bit of tittering because of the lost deposit but no more.
When labour show joy at winning or if you wish retaining a seat they are crowing about it but when Tories retain a seat they have a little bit of tittering, Unbelievable!
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Typical Labour supporting prattle from the Brown Broadcasting Corporation for ever drooling over Brown.
Before the Labour party supporters gloat over 'wonderful Brown', they should pause and reflect that this is one of the two safest seats in Scotland, the other one is Brown's. If this had gone to SNP, Brown's seat would have become marginal.
Even if Brown was arrested for breaking into a bank, the 'red necks' of Glenrothes, they are plenty of them there, would still have voted for Labour. It is nonsensical to talk about 'momentum' 'bounce' as Labour held one of the two safest seats in Scotland with a reduced majority. Still SNP acieved a 5% swing. If they had achieved
6% swing, this seat aand th neighbouring Brown seat would have become marginal, Which Nick and his fellow Labour supporters in BBC would not mention.
Brown as usual exaggerates about his economic competence just as he did about his friendship with Obama. It turns out according to NYTIMES, Obama spoke with Sarkozy, Merkel, Olmert and six other leaders including Brown. Hardly exclusive with Brown, the ego-centric fool.
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259sicilian
No ,I didnt misunderstand her I know exactly what she was saying, in the area I live its called"cockin a deaf un" but you high brows wouldn't understand that, but I am afraid that smelling the fear wont go away sorry folks.
260 Dont Think so young man but pleasant dreams to you and your good lady .Goodnight all.
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#243 oldnat
Yes, I can understand this has probably been dealt with at length elsewhere, but thank you for setting it out!
You say: "Independence is a matter for Scotland alone". In reality, if it comes to a vote for breaking up the UK, I doubt England will be given any say in the matter - but that does not make it right. As a Londoner, I can see there might be some merit in Independence for London. (It's not a serious suggestion!) However, we could not just break away by declaring that it was a matter for Londoners alone. There are of course more people in London than Scotland, so I think the analogy is fair.
You say: "I see no reason why you can't have an English Government and Parliament"
The reason we can't have it is because we haven't been asked or allowed any say in the matter! Personally, I think one layer of government is bad enough; we don't need lots of them!
There is however an anomaly of having Scottish MPs at Westminster who cannot vote on Scottish matters. For years there have also been more Scottish MPs per head of population (because of smaller constituencies) and this has traditionally given Labour an advantage at Westminster. If Scotland does break away, Labour would then find it very hard to win a General Election in England.
#247
You say: Scotland in 2006-7 "had a deficit of £2.7 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) including an estimated geographical share of North Sea revenue" compared with 2.5% within the UK as a whole
Well, I'm in no position to argue the sums of the Scottish Office and/or IMF, but these figures do not tell the whole story. Scotland benefits from the taxes raised within the whole of the UK, and is not funded by Scottish taxpayers alone.
The question of North Sea revenue will of course be a hot topic if independence becomes a real possibility!
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#258 grandantidote
For what it's worth I remain to be convinced about George Osborne. The previous Shadow Chancellor would have been more than a match for Alistair Darling right now I feel. Having said that though, El Gordo is probably pulling his strings.
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Nu-Labour think that there's hope
But they're on a slippery slope;
I think you will find
They are still way behind,
And if you vote Red you're a dope!
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The media narrative is becoming important. As others have stated (#188) Murdoch's support is critical. Brown is being painted as the "Comeback kid" and "the Father of the Nation" rolled into one. He is now performing as the CEO of Great Britain plc. and people are recognising he is man of substance.
Cameron knows he needs a sustained period of double digit leads over Labour in the polls, especially mid-term. If the Tory lead drops to single figures Cameron is going to be in trouble. Tory unity is a sham. If there is even the faintest possibility that the Tories will not win the next election then the clamour for tax cuts (mainly for the rich) and a withdrawl from Europe will become deafening. At that point DC is in trouble.
Interesting times (again).
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#248 oldnat
You say: "Banking is a globalised industry, and the UK is supporting RBS and HBOS because they are seen as being significant benefits to the economy, once the crisis is over."
Indeed! This is why I think we are much stronger together, particularly in these turbulent times. Iceland at one time had a seemingly strong banking system, but with such a tiny population it could not rescue itself when it got into trouble.
If Scotland does go it alone, there are some who say it won't be our problem. I don't share that view!
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231 Sagamix
In your spirit of reconciliation before the weekend........
I totally agree with your comments about hoards of pompous middle aged men in purple ties who spout about things without really knowing what they are doing.
Whilst I think I know what you are getting at when you say 'promote some disabled black lesbians' (I'm sure you are saying promote some people with a different perspective form the usual old political norm - rather than promote people because they fit a PC grouping) - So I don't agree with your phrasing - but I possibly agree with your intention.
I don't think Barack Obama won the election because he was black. He won because he was the best man for the job. He won because he was the best orator, the person who people knew broke the mould because he was relatively different from the usual political norm and the people believed could deliver change compared to the same old usual.
So I agree if you are saying in this country we need a leader from outside the usual political stock. Of course I want them also to merit the job - rather than just fit a stereotype.
Chalres_E_Hardwidge enters this debate somewhere above and says, from memory, that Gordon Brown is the real deal and the right person. Nope.
Well clearly no - if we want major change then neither Brown nor Cameron fit that bill.
If Cameron is the option compared to Clegg and Brown, well for me Cameron is the nearest thing - but not ideal by any stretch of the imagination.
After a long week I'm at friends in the Cotswolds this weekend - so I will not be troubled by any of this political twaddle, but I will, however, clearly be trying to keep up to speed with how my fantasy football team is doing.
Have a good one Sagamix.
JC.
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In his quiet Welsh valley
grandantidote's going doolally,
He believes Labour's spin
(The poor bloke's taken in)
Labour's lies and the truth do not tally!
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I can undderstand why the BBC supports Labour. It is the only party which assures the continuation of the license fee gravy train for BBC fat cats.
A commentator in BBC said to me how he will comment. For Labour he puts down words like 'serious, bounce, Brown bail out, Brown's formula, Brown serious' etc.. so that it is easy for him to use positives for Labour.
Brown and other BBC commentators explaining the retention of this safest seat by Labour, say about people of Glenrothes recognising Brown's strong solution for credit crunch, banks bail out, interest rate cuts etc.. The problem with this argument in respect of Glenrothes is very nebulous for there are more
council houses, benefit seekers etc.. than those who own houses and work in private sector. Hence credit crunch, HBOS do not affect them. This is the fallacy of Brown's argument. I would have agreed with him if he had won a seat from Tories in Surrey.
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Oh - found a story...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7714670.stm
5% swing from labour to SNP
Isn't that the the correct title for a blog on the glenrothes by-election?
Labour are suffering - even in their 'heartlands' - even with brown and his 'I dont use family for politicals' wife campaigning they slip 5%.
Nick -- I enjoy the comments on this blog, how did you get it started? didn't you used to be a journalist or something?
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p.s.
Actually Nick -- as there was a 5% swing to SNP from Labour... Can you get the BBC stats geeks to tell us what swing would have been required for a labour defeat?
It will be interesting to consider that the government has (aparantly) been operating for many months in the belief that this was the actual swing in their heartlands...
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#265 DistantTraveller
Thanks for reading it! It's difficult to condense 40 years of political debate for those who (quite understandably) haven't been exposed to it.
A couple of points.
"I doubt England will be given any say in the matter - but that does not make it right"
I don't know what your attitude is to the EU, but your idea is equivalent to saying that the UK could not leave the EU, if its electorate voted for it.
"Scotland benefits from the taxes raised within the whole of the UK, and is not funded by Scottish taxpayers alone."
I didn't expect you to read the whole GERS Report! - but the point is that Scottish tax revenue is sufficient to finance all public spending in Scotland (less the deficit). We're not getting any extra back, in fact we're making a small additional contribution to the Treasury.
"The question of North Sea revenue will of course be a hot topic if independence becomes a real possibility!"
If Scotland does become independent, there are clear rules for allocating the Continental Shelf to the resultant states. The only question is if Berwick decides to join us or not! They might reasonably claim that the Interpretation Act 1978 repealing the Wales and Berwick Act 1746 denied them a say in the change in their constitutional status :-)
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Obama is currently on the news talking about repairing the credit crisis.
He hasn't talked detail, but at least he isn't hindered by being part of the cause of the crisis.
He will make his decisions based on the facts and not in order to protect his previous record as either President or Chancellor.
Thus his plans will be based on what is necessary and won't be shaped to protect his reputation and previous decisions.
This is one of the reasons we need rid of both Bush and Brown.
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#269 DistantTraveller
"This is why I think we are much stronger together"
Of course we are, and why we are even stronger together with the other nations in Europe. That's why I'm a European Unionist, and have difficulty in understanding why people are so keen to cling to a wee union off the coast as a meaningful political identity.
"Iceland at one time had a seemingly strong banking system, but with such a tiny population it could not rescue itself when it got into trouble."
I think it's an error (though politically understandable) to compare the Scottish HQd banks with the Icelandic situation.
Iceland's problem was compounded by being a small country with an independent currency (a situation I've never advocated, and even the SNP hasn't for the last 20 years). They had allowed their guarantee fund to be massively under-capitalised by their banks, hence their Government was committed to the shortfall.
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Whatever southern prattling about momentum and narrative there may be following the Glenrothes by-election, it should be noted that within devolved Scotland there is a momentum and a narrative quite separate from Westminster and its concerns, although those of you who reside in England are hardly aware of them for the most part. Despite the current exceptional economic climate and the presence of Governor-General Murphy, the political agenda in Scotland is primarily under the control of the party in office, as we are about to be reminded shortly. This remains the Scottish National Party. The gratifyingly substantial swing to that party in this week's Westminster by-election, although not uninteresting, does not substantively affect this in any way.
In any case, the mass importation of Labour Party activists from England to overwhelm a Scottish Westminster constituency with scaremongering misrepresentation at a by-election has nothing whatever to do with what can happen in a UK general election in Scotland, where Labour Party activists have become very thin on the ground, a point apparently not taken into account by Mr Robinson, whereas SNP membership continues to grow, as does the determination of that membership to achieve the aims of the party.
The recent invasion from England is a by-election phenomenon purely and simply. That is the long and the short of it irrespective of unionist media spin and prattle. "They laugh ay that wins." (Pappity Stampoy, A Collection of Scottish Proverbs, 1663) But he who has the last laugh laughs longest.
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#261 Charles_E_Hardwidge
"The Scots can't leave the union without the say so of the English and Welsh as far as I'm concerned."
I note that you disenfranchise Northern Ireland.
Fortunately, Slovenia didn't have to get Serbia's (or your) permission to become independent.
I know consistency is not part of your philosophy, but you could at least pretend to some!
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#272 brightfastflipper
"The problem with this argument in respect of Glenrothes is very nebulous for there are more council houses, benefit seekers etc.. than those who own houses and work in private sector"
Care to provide some evidence for this assertion?
All the socio-economic data is available on line, so that it should be easy for you to quote it.
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The UK cannot leave the EU with the unanimous approval of all member states.
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A small point but I believe that Mr Brown is only a resident of Fife not a Fifer, having been born in Govan. As a true Fifer, it is an important distinction !!
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Oh come on children, lets grow up!
The UK served us all well for a few centuries, but the future is Europe. Westminster and the British monarchy are doomed institutions.....it's just a matter of time.
For Scottish Independence to have been worthwhile, it had to happen at least 50 years ago. It is pointless in the 21st century.
Raise your heads...see the bigger picture.... we are all Europeans, ultimately all humans.
Lets not retreat into pointless factionalism.
Peace and Lurve..........
Bill McFadden
P.S. pot_kettle Can you see the men in white coats coming?
If you can't, don't worry....they will be along for you soon.
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#195 jonathan_cook
Interesting link. If Gordon is accepting that any of the problem originates from UK, you can bet he is not over-stating the case.
Here are some extracts from his Mansion House speech to the City in June 2006 ("Then") with my commments on his current line. ("Now")
Then:
to securing London's position of global pre-eminence not only as the international financial centre of the world,
Now:
It is a global thing. We are victims not leading lights
Then
London has enjoyed one of its most successful years ever, for which I congratulate all of you here on your leadership skills and entrepreneurship
Now
Age of irresponsibility
Then
Progress if we invest in and nurture the skills of the future, advance with light touch regulation, a competitive tax environment and flexibility.
Now
The Tories irresponsibly called for lighter touch regulation
Then
I said that our new monetary and fiscal regime was founded on stability first, foremost and always, stability yesterday, today and tomorrow, stability through a stable and competitive tax regime, and stability through a predictable and light touch regulatory environment
Now
????
Then
-families enjoying low consumer prices, low interest rates from the low inflation created and rising living standards - often think of themselves as globalisation's losers, globalisation's beneficiaries often seeing themselves as globalisation's victims
Now
Globalisation = the root of all problems
Then
Your dynamism allied to the City's openness has led London to innovate: the most modern instruments of finance
Now
The age of irresponsibility
Then
Let me say I see no case for a European single regulator and will continue to reject such a proposal,
Now
National regulation is insufficient. We need global regulatory arrangements
Then
The city of London is showing us that Britain can succeed in an open global economy, a progressive globalisation, a Britain that is made for globalisation and a globalisation that is made for Britain
Now
The problem is global.
There are those who make history and those who make it up.
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#283 Billmcfadden
I think we are in agreement, but your post wasn't the clearest statement of European Unionism and the consequent logical political structures within the current UK that I've seen.
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Scottish Independance....
Scots established the union - a scottish king took the english crown - so don't blame england for the union...
If the scots now want to withdraw from england it is up to them, but england will want compensation for the years of occupation...
Equally if england regains its independance (UDI) compensation will be expected...
OK, I don't really beleive this stuff (logically) but it seems to be correct under international law...
Go on scotland... do you feel lucky?
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#275 oldnat
You say: "I don't know what your attitude is to the EU, but your idea is equivalent to saying that the UK could not leave the EU, if its electorate voted for it"
Well, I'm certainly not anti-European, or even against closer political and economic ties - but I do have a problem with the institutions as they currently stand. The EU commission for example has far to much power in my view, and because it is unelected, "we the people" can do nothing to boot them out of office. The fact that the accounts have not been signed off for 14 years says something about their lack of competence.
The point is, yes, in theory the UK could leave the EU, but London couldn't!
Scotland now has considerable autonomy, whereas London has a feeble assembly and an all-powerful mayor. (Incidentally, I voted no to both in the referendum of 1998. I prefer a flat, streamlined structure, rather than a multi-layered pyramid). Although I prefer Boris to Ken, I fear there is still too much power in the hands of one person. Can you imagine a mayor for the whole of Scotland?
I'm sorry to keep making this comparison, but why should Scotland have more autonomy than the larger population of London? Perhaps, in Scottish eyes, the reason is that historically Scotland was (and is) a separate country. This is undeniable, but the Act of Union was over 300 years ago!
It seems strange to me to want closer political ties with the institutionally undemocratic EU, while seeking to sever all connection with England. Are we still being blamed for Edward I? That was over 700 years ago!
Can't we let bygones be bygones?!!!
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#273 realtruth
Labour INCREASED their share of the vote to 56% (from 52%).
There was a big swing (possibly tactical-voting induced) away from the Tories and Lib Dems to the SNP.
I really don't get how Labour can increase their share of the vote and yet have a swing away from them?!
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#220 shellingout
China.
We can all sell our houses and pay rent to the Chinese government.
Personal debt reduced by 84%. Robin's problem solved at a stroke.
(alternatively, which was my point, we should not be too concerned about the level of mortgage debt - and maybe not by the level of unsecured debt either. What matters is the AFFORDABILITY of that debt i.e. what % of income do the repayments make)
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#287 DistantTraveller
"why should Scotland have more autonomy than the larger population of London? Perhaps, in Scottish eyes, the reason is that historically Scotland was (and is) a separate country. This is undeniable, but the Act of Union was over 300 years ago!"
First, thanks for continuing the debate. It's re-assuring to find someone on this blog who doesn't re-iterate party platitudes!
I'm trying to keep the post short, so I'll over simplify.
There was no single Act of Union - both countries passed Acts of Union which ratified the Treaty of Union.
Other than in foreign policy, Scotland ran its own affairs until the mid 20th century, with little interference from England. When there was pressing need, the UK Parliament passed the necessary amendments to the separate Scottish legal system.
It is really only in my lifetime, with the actions of centralist Labour and Tory Governments, that the UK (understandably dominated by the English agenda) impinged on our social institutions.
On the whole, we have not appreciated the domination of our social agenda by an "alien" one.
Since devolution, our systems have become increasingly divergent.
London is a major international city (like New York) which happens to be situated within a country. However, your laws, education system, NHS, social services structure, house ownership law etc etc are the same as those of the country you are in.
In Scotland, all of these are differently organised.
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Good Morning. Hostilities resumed! Slept well and ready to do battle with the delusionals.
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oldnat @280: I was interested by ths question yesterday. Here is a brief rundown of the demographics of Glenrothes. Hope it helps. [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
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gordon brown knows, neu labour knows, the banks know, the fuel companies know but we dont.
until now i shall explain.
at the beguining of the 90's something was added to our water supply.
its reason was to purify the water but that was a cover the real reason was to convert the majority into mindless minions of the all powerfull neu labour party.
there plan to bend us to there will is working very well and it will continue untill the party achieves its goals.
there goals have changed under gordon brown but not much they still want to turn the governing of the country over to europe and live like kings on the kick back they will recieve.
some of there members have jumped the gun and the people have noticed but those get removed for a while then return to titles and higher paid jobs.
they create problems to amuse themselves and to watch the minions squrm.
wheres the proof you may ask?
all you need do is concentrait and think what has the government realy done to help britian honestly.
any gains have been aimed at intergration into europe, even our long established firms are now faultering.
we are an island people but we hardly build ships anymore, let alone use them as much.
so was glenrothes unexpected?
no it was in the water.
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292:
Posted a demographic of The Glenrothes Constituency. Don't think the Mods like foreign articles. Anyone interested can always google it.
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288 balhamu
This is how they work it out I think.
Using the statistics given in your post 50 :
Labours percentage majority has decreased from 28.539 % to 18.601 %, a drop of 9.938 %
To get this drop of 9.938% they assume that one person changes voting "sides" reducing one vote count and increasing the other. ie the percentage of the electorate who change their vote is actually half of the actual percentage drop.
9.938 divided by 2 gives 4.969 % which is what reported in the link given in post 273.
It is misleading this method of calculation, it is a swing that reduces the Labour majority, though not actually a swing from Labour as reported, as their voting percentage actually increased.
It just goes to show that you should not believe isolated statistics on their own, and the context of the situation given by other relevant statistics and facts is important to understand actually going on. Gordon Brown and the government us this approach all the time for all aspect of government to show themselves in a good light !
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We should *not* note there was a swing away from Labour. In fact the only swing that occurred was a collapse of the Liberal and Tory votes, which swung to the SNP. The Labour vote *increased* slightly. Here are the percentage votes, with 2005 in brackets: Labour 55 (55) SNP 36 (25) Con 4(7) Lib 3(13). As you can see, no swing away from Labour at all. To present the result as such is a misuse of statistics.
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#288 balhamu
swings and stuff - with no votes for libdems or tories both labour and SNP increased their share of the votes, however SNP increased theirs by much more than labour.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/nov/07/glenrothes-byelection-labour-snp1
Rather better data than the BBC - but then the BBC has to work with such limited resouces... (I am not a guardian reader, but they came up first on google).
SNP needed a 12.5% swing from labour but only got a 5% swing from labour.
Labour threw everything they had at it - but are still on the slide.
Not the trashing that many had hoped for - but a massive slap in the face (particularly as browns constituency is next door) -- but being reported as a victory...
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297 The Real Truth
It looks quite straight forwards to me.
SNP and Labour remain static - apart from:
1. A few people jumped from the Conservatives and Liberals to support the SNP - but that wasn't enough to give Brown a bloody nose.
2. Less people jumped from Conservatives and Liberals to Labour as a protest against Scottish independence.
Meanwhile - Brown continues to fiddle while the UK burns.
Quite why Brown should feel so pleased for himself - when he has achieved the equivalent of the Conservatives holding Henley on Thames I don't know.
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Nick,
you mention narrative so may I point out the following.
Life is actually meaningless and we need to give it meaning, so we create narrative.
I think that you are very creative, but does that mean that you give any meaning to the future of Gordon Brown, the man has no purpose. What is the point of any government?
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284 Onlyjoking
Brown's re-writing of history is getting out of control at the moment isn't it!!
One lie is bad - from a British Prime Minister -but we are a position of 'spot the truth' when he opens his mouth these days.
The media don't seem to mind him doing it either.....
Brown's Stalinist tendencies:
http://www.theworld.org/?q=node/18462
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re: 299, TAG
I think that you are very creative, but does that mean that you give any meaning to the future of Gordon Brown, the man has no purpose.
Brown's only purpose is to cling to power at any cost, and drag Britain down with him.
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The purpose of government (I think) is to guide and lead a country along the best paths for its welfare. To care for, and nurture, its citizens, from the weakest to the strongest. A government should be composed of an elected body who are the servants of the citizens. It appears that we have the very opposite on both points.
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I was heartened by the comments on this blog. Your contributors have mentioned all the things I have thought about this. Most importantly the IMF report about the state of this economy-where exactly does the genius chancellor mantra fit into this? The other aspect your bloggers may not yet have mentioned is the fact that Labour really did throw everything at this -it would be interesting to count the number of MPs they sent up there apart from Sarah Brown.There is also the fact that the Scottish press are universally pro-Labour. You have no idea just how that plays out. Even broadsheets here do not include much of the negatives about GB and Labour.
Brown was lucky that the news for him has looked good at the moment but what I really want to know is why so much broadcasting has failed to examine the causes of this economic recession. Does the Labour Party refuse to give access if you're not nice about them?
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Nick,
if Gordon Brown does not hold an election in the early part of next year then he, and his advisers, are more stupid than I think that they are.
The Tories are absolutely pathetic at the moment, I am afraid that Osborne will have to be sacrificed, Hague as shadow chancellor.
As for labour then are we seeing Darling, or could it even be Mandelson, as the one to take over the leadership when Gordon wins, by a fraction, but I reckon Browns health will rapidly deteriorate afterwards, so he will be able to go with dignity, retire, and leave us with another few years of labour. Mind you there is not much point in parliament anymore. Wonder what happened to the referendum on the European Constitution, or whatever it was called, oh and we might as well enter the Euro, we are just so busted. Extraordinary, absolutely extraordinary. My poor grandchildren.
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Brown's comments congratulating Obama have gone done er, well.... in the US
International Statesman
This is business as usual for Brown though isn't it........... there are certain similarities to the videos of him explaining he never said "I'll end boom and bust" and explaining away his decision to sell gold.
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I think it is more complicated than that.
Although Brown has looked good, or at least better, throughout this period, the SNP and their leader have looked weaker.
Salmond's understanding of the economics have been slim at best, and I think some are worried that an independently biased Scotland may have weathered worse than being fiscally tied to the rest of the UK.
As the Bank of England helpfully point out in their website FAQs, Scottish notes are not Legal Tender in the rest of the UK.
Perhaps the SNP financial acumen is similarly so
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302, Totally agree. Couldn't have put it better myself. Unfortunately, what often happens is that the incumbent comes in with honest aspirations to the effect that you have described but little by little they are whisked away into a closetted world (probably for their own safety/security) and lose touch with the electorate. They often get carried away with the power of it all too. Big ego booster.
Of course, Obama is now undergoing initiation into this type of world and will eventually become esconced into it. No answer really.
Maybe the American way of having two terms only is the answer.
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Jonathan, apart from David and others, many feel Boris would make a good PM. Many are not worried just so long as this shower leaves by the back door.
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Blair, Bush, Brown, Blears. Motley Crew.
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294 sicilian29
You by far are the fairest most balanced commenter on this blog. No sorry I was being a bit delusional for a bit. Thanks to all you pschologists out there for pointing that out.
Insult the electorate of Glenrothes for not voting the way you wanted? Because you are a Conservative and unionist you wanted them to vote Scottish nationalist obviously to help the master plan of the in no way delusional Guido Fawkes inspired virtual Militia who congregate here which seems to be a kind of political Dungeons and Dragons. Insulting the electorate is something that you lot are constantly accusing labour voters of doing. yet you do it yourself when it suits you.
Well done to the people of Glenrothes who went out and voted for what they believed in that includes genuine SNP voters and Conservatives and Lib dems who may have voted Labour for the union, but not those who were playing silly little get Dave and chums into power in Westminster at any cost games.
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292 sicilian
Good Morning. Hostilities resumed! Slept well and ready to do battle with the delusionals.
Blimey! sicilian that must be the shortest battle in history.
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283 billmacfadden
I agree with much that you say but I dont think Europe is ready yet for a step as big as that, but one day perhaps long after I depart this world.
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293delminister
#at the beguining of the 90's something was added to our water supply.
#its reason was to purify the water but that was a cover the real reason was to convert the majority into mindless minions of the all powerfull neu labour party.
Got your dates a bit confused there pal.
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298 Jonathon Cook
#Quite why Brown should feel so pleased for himself - when he has achieved the equivalent of the Conservatives holding Henley on Thames I don't know.
You really do know why he should be pleased with himself, don't you. he retained a seat in a constituency with a very worthwhile mid term majority, You Tories had predicted that he would recieve a bloody nose, he didn't, he won well, you Tories lost your deposit Cameron perhaps not a bloody nose but a nasty little slap.
By the way has anyone seen Cameron or the rest of the conservative party they seem to be conspicious by their absence.
Be happy for Gordon!
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293 delminister
Translation
"We must protect our precious bodily fluids from the communist conspiracy of flouridation of the water supply"
Have you been watching Dr Strangelove? Flouride is to protect teeth.
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308 flamepatricia
#Jonathan, apart from David and others, many feel Boris would make a good PM
Patricia including Tories you could name all the people who would want Boris for PM on the back of a postage stamp but the names of those that wouldn't want him to be PM would fill a library
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316 grandantidote
Good morning, grandantidote
If Boris was standing for ANY party, I would support it.
Beware, the way I'm eating these days, I'd fill either a very big postage stamp or a lareg library.
Bring on Boris!!!
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317
To continue my posting #317, while agreeing charisima is not everything, and can indeed mask dangerous qualities, Boris has a large measure of this quality. This is something he shares with the late, great Winston Churchill. Another similarity is that both men have a certain speech impediment. Speaking swiftly, the brain working quicker than the tongue, together with sincerity rather than measuring the words to smooth the message, oratation can sometimes be difficult to follow. But, on other occasions, the speech and contents transcend everyday utterances, and hold audiences spellbound.
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314 Grantidote
As much as I would like to feel happy for you all........... all the while Brown lies about things I can't. It is nasty trait at the best of times, but in a Prime Minister..... erghhhh.
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311:
Now that the euphoria has died down and people are beginning to realise that The Scottish issue has little relevance to us I agree that this particular battle is over and I will leave it alone.
On 316 I am half in flame's camp and half in grandy's. I was pleased when he took London away from Ken Livingstone but I'm getting a little fed up with his hair. I don't think I could stomach seeing it every day on The News channels. I agree that his mouth frequently precedes his brain. On 'Have I Got News For You' it's an entertaining trait and he makes a great host but as P.M. I think he would probably make too many unforced gaffes.
I'm now going to log in to Conservative Home to urge them to drop George Osborne. The man appears to be holding his party back at a time that they should be on the offensive. Having watched Michael Portillo's programme on the teen sucide of a schoolboy friend and it's impact on his family there are probably more important matters in the world than politics in the grand scheme of things. Looking back I'm not so sure that Governments of different shades have had any real impact on me. It doesn't seem to matter who is in charge. The Civil Service and big Institutions run everything anyway
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320. sicilian29
I disagree about Boris's hair, it is absolutely unimportant as far as I'm concerned. Regarding younger voters, I cannot speak for them, alas they occupy a different world. If according to BBC spokespeople, most of them think Ross and Brand are great, then there is a huge cultural void between the generations. Maybe Boris's untidy hair will put them off, yet again perhaps they will find it "wicked"!
George Osborne is completely nasty and offputting, but then so is Oliver Letwin (heaven forbid), David Cameron. Kitten Shoes Theresa May et al.
I have horrible vibes that with this crew in competition, it will be more of the same come the next elections.
This is why I will again abstain.
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What's that about Brown selling gold? - no problem with that, is there, as far as I'm aware?
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322 sagamix
Wont get much joy here. I know thats obvious but you know what I mean. there is an HYS debate on institutional bias preventing a British Barack bama. They will be complaining about the evils of multiculturalism and positive discrimination of the Labour party. Unlike the NuCons and their 'A' list. Strange some of them don't have time to come back here when each membership is only allowed 2 comments an hour on HYS.
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I'm surprised that Nottinghill whatever has quoted the IMF report from early this year. Everyone else is talking about the latest report which was mentioned briefly on, I think ,Wednesday night by the BBC but seems to have escaped their notice since then. That'll be why Gordon Brown fails to mention them then.
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There was a young black Conservative London M.P. on the BBC Daily Politics show the other day. He looked good, made a lot of sense and seemed to be in touch with the interests of the younger generation, the needy and the ethnic minorities. Why not draft more people like him in to replace the likes of Theresa May, Dominic Grieve and George Osborne etc. (the more unnaceptable face of The Conservative Party). The growing perception at the moment is that there are too many politicians at the top of The main Opposition Party who come from privileged backgrounds and are therefore completely out of touch with the honest, hard working people who happen to need the most help now. The feckless and the lazy can be set adrift as far as I'm concerned.
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I've commented on character, groups, and systems in the past: It takes about 10 years for an idea to gain acceptance and another 10 for it it be implemented. That's 20 years in total. Full maturity happens at the 50 year mark.
It's reasons like this why it takes an individual 5 years to make one significant change, why the "war on terror" or a better global picture will take up to 30 years. Deeper change on a national level can take up to 300 years.
Trever Philips is correct to pick up on a more systems based thinking but Sadiq Kahn is correct to take a more rounded and patient view. Indeed, I anticipate a long Gordon Brown Premiership and Sadiq Kahn to become the next Prime Minister in 15-20 years.
Leaders and community consensus are important. It's true that "Brand Black" is dragged down by the Gangsta culture and Africa's basket case status but a critical point was passed a few years ago. The general trend is much better now.
As "Brand black" is decontaminated and other loser groups, such as white working class, are focused on general outcomes should improve: competing agendas will unify and social liquidity will increase. Getting there just needs a little patience.
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Nick, has Brown rewritten the textbook for leaders in crisis based on your heavily twisted blinkered Labour view ? Read tomorrows papers and the poll giving the tories a 13 point lead. Isn't that a 4 point gain in a week. Brown is finished, the BBC might be finished after the tories get in unless they change their biassed reporting as will the hacks who also brown-nose Brown. Perhaps you should start reporting from a neutral point of view.
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Things aren't always what they appear to be and swapping one cruelty for another just creates another set of problems. The 'switched on dude' can just as easily be hiding a bunch of junk inside, and the 'unacceptable face of the Tory party' have needs of their own.
Getting sucked in by the razzle dazzle or throwing hostility around just has people lurching from one false messiah to the next or drags the whole show down. A little healthy scepticism, good attitude, and patience, or maturity, is really what people need to keep in mind.
When you throw yourself at life and guzzle buckets of beer and scoff yourself silly, you desentise yourself to the subtleties and make yourself sick. A calmer approach unblocks your view and lets more of life's colour in without exploding in a self-destructive sequence.
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rusty @ 327:
The unfortunate thing about Brown is that he could be the best P.M. the world has ever seen over the next two years but a lot of people simply don't trust or like him. Sadly every little success he has tends to be accompanied by that bouncy, arrogant demeanour of his leading to a sharpening of these people's adverse perceptions of him.
GB: "What I have learned from this by-election is that people are prepared to support Governments that will help people through the downturn and offer real help to people.
"They are less willing to support people who have no idea about how to solve the problems we have got."
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Perception lags reality. As I've commented in an earlier post, it takes time for a view to penetrate. As people get a lock on the Tory lack of policy and negative attitudes the centre of gravity will shift.
One big issue is how the media and popular opinion have got sucked in by a tiny and very loud minority. This started with William Hague's grassroots campaign and has exploded onto the internet but the door is closing on trolling like that.
The social and economic liberal mentality just hollowed out TV like Tomorrow's World and Top Gear. The first is dead, the other is just an ego vehicle for Clarkeson. More substance and less "me, me, me" would help turn that around.
The only reason you're raving and gushing so negatively is because that's where your head's at - like some Little Emperor that dropped his rattle. Fact is, doing anything well is hard and the world doesn't revolve around you. Bottom line? Grow up.
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'The truth hurts' says ancient chinese proverb.
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318 Phoenixarisonq,Now phoenix I think you must have been hitting the bottle if you can see any similarities between Winston and Boris,
Don't get me wrong I rather like Boris he's a breath of fresh air he should have a TV program to replace Jonathon Ross and the other goon, I am quite sure he could handle that job quite well, seriously.
I am afraid that there is no way I would want him to run the country, do you honestly believe that leaders of other countries could take him seriously can you see the conservatives back benchers rolling in the aisles that is other than the ones that woud be bursting blood vessels.
#But, on other occasions, the speech and contents transcend everyday utterances, and hold audiences spellbound.
Phoenix it is only the red wine you've been on isn't it.
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In a bad mood right now because my team underperformed at The Emirates. Off to see Quantum of Solace and then a French brasserie meal with misswaldorf. Should do the trick! Must now love you and leave you!
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No sign of a "bounce" except of the dead cat sort in the ICM poll coming out on Sunday. Glenrothes was driven by local issues and a decline in interest in the SNP in difficult times. The whole country is sick of Labour and sees through Brown and his spin. He was an awful Chancellor and is a mendacious and incompetent PM - the country knows it and wants to act on it.
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333 sicilian29
I saw Quantum of Solace the other night.
I'd give it a miss if I were you! Save your money, go straight to the Brasserie and have an extra bottle of wine instead.
Enjoy your evening.
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re: 330, CEH
Dear me Charles, just when I thought you couldn't get any dafter... What a silly sausage you are. Agree with you about Top Gear though, it's tripe.
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Nick, have you seen the latest telegraph poll?
Looks like all this talk of a 'Brown Bounce' is very much short lived. I amongst millions of others I'm sure have been confused by this apparent 'revival' when the average person on the street is still angry with how this government has overspent, over borrowed and now we all will suffer.
When are the BBC going to get back to representing the reality that the country is still fed up!
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332. grandantidote wrote:
318 Phoenixarisonq,Now phoenix I think you must have been hitting the bottle if you can see any similarities between Winston and Boris,....
Unfortunately I can't drink. But, strangely, I was making a delicious spagetti bolagnaise sauce and poured a genorous glass of Masala wine into it. So in a way I was hitting the bottle!
"Phoenix it is only the red wine you've been on isn't it."
Around this neck of the woods, the dealers ignore me, too old, too square, too something!
BUT I STILL STAND BY WHAT I SAID ABOUT BORIS.
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I do not agree with Phillips' hypothesis that Britain could not have a black prime minister. Unfortunately, black is a term that has little relevance when applied to British organisations. The Black Police Union is filled mainly with Asians, not those of African descent. The Asians, are mainly Moslem, so it should really be called the Moslem Police Union if one wishes to be pendantic. The term Afro-American is apt when applied to Obama, for his father is an African, from Kenya and his mother a white American. Most of those called 'blacks' in the USA are of mixed racial descent. The evil practice of slavery, resulted in most 'blacks' today having white genes.
Britain has several 'black' politicans in high places. Baroness Scotland, although this elegant lady appears as equally white as black. Lady Amos, another high profile character. Then there is the Nu Labour Diane Abbott, who appears to spend her time these days as a TV celebrity. Interesting how its the ladies who seem to have reached the heights. Dedication, and canniness, I suspect.
I believe that the British political machine operates in a different manner to that of the USA. Time has to be spent, either in a union, or in some party-based organisation. The apprenticeship period is long and patrons must be courted along the way. I believe the scene will be very different within the next four or five years, as 'black' young people push themselves ahead. I do believe, however, that the majority will be Moslem young women, but perhaps I am wrong.
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re: 339, phoenix
Britain has several 'black' politicans in high places.
Whatever happened to the black and Jewish Oona King?
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Nick
Regarding the so called 'Brown Bounce'. Sorry to disappoint but an ICM poll has just revealed that the Conservatives are 13 points in front of Labour. People aren't stupid. Despite Labour party spin and a high proportion of the media trying to re-build GB's image, most people have simply had enough and are desperate for change.
I am almost 100% certain that there won't be an early general election.
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Grandy I did not realise that not many are keen for Boris to progress into Government. I have to say that quite a few people I have spoken to have said they are keen for him to be PM.
Strange old thing these politics, ever changing scene. As they say "a day's a long time in politics" or is a week - I forget.
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Re black PM for us - what about Baroness Varsi? Next best thing - Boris who has an Indian wife. Just a suggestion!
Actually life race wise has become so flipping complicated over the last decade. We never had these big tensions in the past. We had a few, Southall etc., but the incomers were largely integrated eventually. We are constantly under threat of terrorism because of Bliar's war. Thanks Tone.
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ah 313 you spotted it so you may well not be drinking enough of the water.
but it was the early 90's that neu labour started to raise its ugly head out of the primordal soup of evil politics.
but there brand of mind control can only be spotted if your seen voting for them.
do you remember that bottled water the coke company tried to push that was only tap water? why was it considered unhealthy?
it was not removed for missleading advertising as coke has the power to fight those cases but for what was coming out of the tap.
could my mad rambelings have some bits of honest fact, or am i the mad scientist that devised the solution that is being used ??
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340. power_to_the_ppl
Britain has several 'black' politicans in high places.
Whatever happened to the black and Jewish Oona King?
Hi, pttp.
I didn't mention Oona King since she has withdrawn from her active political career.
I've always been impressed by her intellectual abilities, and know what a truly difficult time she has had, especially being up against George Galloway. In many ways, she is a living, walking target for racial and religious bigots, who these days go under new names, yet are ever present lurking in the shadows. King has embarked upon a career in the media, and has said: "I wanted to be an MP all my life, and when it didn't work, I thought, well then, I'll just have to go down a different path."
I hope she will return one day to the political forum as I believe she has a lot to offer.
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Third item 'DEATH BY COMMITTEE?' in the Westminster Diary looks interesting.
Look forward to the new Glenrothes MP serving on the committee for the Home Counties to make up the Labour numbers!
What a strange way you have of running English affairs.
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to 315 i am a great fan of kubricks work but even in his most wildest ravings i doubt he could have cocieved of neu labour.
for example tony blair's smile fake though it is is it piles, wind, superglue accident or worse?
gordon brown's leadership is it great, cromwellian, churchillian, reprehensible, a failure or something worse??
what evil drug has been added to the water to control the populus ?
am i raving mad or scientist involved in government coverup?
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is this neu labours winter of discontent ???
if the people are annoyed enough will they force a change ??
the win in glenrothes has shown that neu labour can still kick hard and as such those wanting change need to apply themselves now actions speak louder than words.
the BBC should be neutral and fair please no more labour biased reporting.
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I notice that a lot of people like bashing Nick for being a Labour luvvie(which I have no doubt that he is) but being realistic the BBC is hardly going to employ anyone who is anything but left of centre. Labour used to rely on the unions for support, now the BBC is their biggest promoter.
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#313. Grandantidote
"293delminister
#at the beguining of the 90's...."
'Got your dates a bit confused there pal.'
And that was the only thing about his post that you found strange ???
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re: 345, phoenix
Evening good sir.
King was one of the better NuLaba MPs, but that's not really saying much. I even wanted her to win instead of Galloway, despite her pro-war stance... but that was when Nu-Lab was a little mouldy rather than fly-blown and stinking as it is now. Remember when the Galloway said this:
Two of your beautiful daughters are in the hands of foreigners - Jerusalem and Baghdad. The foreigners are doing to your daughters as they will. The daughters are crying for help, and the Arab world is silent. And some of them are collaborating with the rape of these two beautiful Arab daughters. Why? Because they are too weak and too corrupt to do anything about it.
Beautiful daughters? Hmm yes of course George. Even the deluded grandantidote hates him.
re: 347, delminister
gordon brown's leadership is it great, cromwellian, churchillian, reprehensible, a failure or something worse??
If I had to sum it up in a single word, I'd say... grasping. Every single word and deed has been with the intention of staying in power, stealing more of our money and trying to persuade us that things are not as they really are. We aren't fooled.
Now pttp is getting a cold, so is going off for a brandy and a hot bath. Goodnight fellow bloggers.
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351 power_to_the_people
Dear pttp,
Get well soon, but have the hot bath before the brandy!
George Galloway is the biggest rascist in the UK, and I wont write what I think of him or it will be off to cyberspace Siberia yet again.
I'm now off to bed, so goodnight to you all.
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Been wondering why the rabid right wingers on here hate the BBC so much.
There is no obvious answer why anyone would object to an unbiased, fair, quality broadcaster paid for and accountable to every licence fee payer in the UK's existance.
The best I can come up with is that these rabid tories would rather the media was run by 1 or 2 super rich individuals, whom they hope would support a bunch of toffs winning the next election.
Does Britain really want to return to the first half of the 20th century, and elect old Etonians who feel that power is their birthright?
Hopefully not. In fact I am certain they dont.
Bill McFadden
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Blog @ 335:
Just back from Quantum. Not really misswaldorf's cup of tea. Too much action and not enough human interest for her. Being a boy I quite enjoyed it. The meal on the other hand was an enormous disappointment. Does anyone else agree with me that you can't beat good old fashioned home cooking. Why pay vast amounts of money for a restaurant meal when you can pay much less for much better. Disappointing to say the least. Can't remember the last time I was really impressed with a meal out.
On the British Barack Obama I'm sure if there was someone out there with the intelligence and charisma he or she could succeed. It took a long time to find the right person across the water even though he has only been a Senator for two years or so. These people don't grow on trees. If someone emerged who broadly followed my political ethos I'd certainly give him/her a chance to represent me.
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344 delminister
So your seed hasn't been delivered yet? When it does you will sleep and awaken happier, more content free from hate and a better person. Perhaps someone has hidden it under your bed. Sleep tight don't let the greenfly bite!;o)
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How about another post from Nick Robinson with the heading EXTRAORDINARY.
I'll type the first few lines for Nick to make it easier..
Extraordinary, Truly extraordinary. After all the hype in the media about the Brown bounce and how Gordo had saved Scotland, the planet and the galaxy, where is the Brown bounce?
ICM have a poll out tonight giving the Tories a 13 point lead 43 to 30. Brown is back to core vote and nothing more.
Over to you Nick........
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@356
Funny...I have just checked the ICM website and they have not mentioned this poll.
You and another tory bozzo have mentioned it. I don't doubt the veracity of your posting.
Just doubt you claiming to be an ordinary voter expressing an opinion when you have inside info.
Tory Party Central Office paying you well???
Bill McFadden
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re: 357, billmcfadden
Check the poll out here.
Right I'm definitely off to bed now. Night all.
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#357 Billmcfadden
Poll details aren't normally released by the polling company until the story has been run by whoever has paid for (and spun) it.
Details should be available from ICM early next week.
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#290 oldnat
Thank you for continuing too!
So, the argument for treating Scotland differently is because of its history. But similar arguments could be made about England. (I only used London as an example, to illustrate my point about Scotland's comparatively smaller population)
Under Labour's new constitutional arrangements for the Union, Scotland has to a large extent already cut itself of from Westmintser's influence, yet still sends MPs there to vote on English matters. And those same Scottish MPs can no longer vote on Scottish affairs because they are not elected to Holyrood!
It's a bit of a mess, don't you think?
I don't blame the Scottish people for this imbalance, but my suspicions are that this was part of Labour's plans to appease those with Nationalistic tendencies. Dominance in Scotland has certainly helped keep Labour in power at Westminster. Without the Scottish vote, Labour would find it much harder to win an election down South. But the plan has backfired somewhat! Despite the Glenrothes result, the Independence Genie might not want to go back in the bottle...
The irony is, if Scotland breaks away completely, the rest of us will also become independent - without ever having been asked!
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#353 billmcfadden
"Does Britain really want to return to the first half of the 20th century, and elect old Etonians who feel that power is their birthright?"
I have a dream that one day we will live in a nation where politicians will not be judged by the school they went to, but by the content of their character.
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354:
Thinking a little more about a British Barack Obama how many times have we come across a white P.M. (let alone a black or female one) capable of stirring the emotions and arousing feelings of well being with passionate straight to the heart speeches. Winston Churchill was a great orator but there haven't been many in the last few generations either side of The Atlantic or around The world for that matter. They seem to crop up only once or twice in a lifetime. To expect a carbon copy of the new President Elect over here is a bit of a pipedream in my opinion. Trevor Phillips is speaking with his heart as opposed to his head as far as I ca see.
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The ICM poll bears out what I was saying on here a few weeks ago and was also intimated in a previous thread. Gordon Brown has cemented his popularity with his die hard core voters but done little to snatch the minds of Opposition voters and the undecided in spite of the so called bounce. I tend to agree that there will now not be a General Election next year.
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Oh dear - the NuCons are scrabbling around to find an explanation for what can only be described as a famous victory.
The NuCons told us it was democracy in action when freedom fighter Davis called an unneeded by election. Which he went on to win with a much reduced majority.
Now the NuCons tell us that Labour victory was ineviable.
Just one fact to consider the NuCons lost their deposit
Perhaps one other fact - the SNP have played the politics of hate for years. Now that they are in power they have been found out for what they really are - a poor excuse for a political party
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364:
The Conservatives did indeed lose their deposit in Glenrothes. And .......................?
The same thing happened to The Labour candidate in Henley. Means an awful lot doesn't it?
Agree with you about The SNP however.
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Rock solid majority halved.
Gordon made to campaign with his wife.
8% swing from Labour.
And this is some how a bounce?
Latest opinion polls showing a 9-13% Conservative lead nationally. In the key marginals, it is a 13-17% lead.
That's a 100-seat + Tory majority.
70% of UK voters see Cameron benefiting from an Obama presidency.
New Zealand voted out the incumbent who campaigned on 'experienced leadership' against 'change'.
This country needs a change, it does not need as leader the architect of the worst unsustainable boom and bust in living memory.
As for Labour bloggers (this blog included) v Conservative bloggers.
Oh please, be serious.
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You're just saying that because you want to undermine Labour's success and sow fear. If that's all the Tories have to offer it's no surprise the media have switched off them. The Tories are a policy free zone and still as selfish as ever.
Britain needs to regain a sense of what's right and fairness, and there is NOTHING about the Tory party that suggests to me that they can deliver that, as almost every word and sentiment they express is just about them winning at any price.
Not one single Tory in here can say why people should pay attention to the Tories. They're just running on raw feelings without any foundation in reality. It's why they never focus on the point or ever admit they're wrong about anything: it would crucify their egos.
Get real.
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re: 367, CEH
They're just running on raw feelings without any foundation in reality. It's why they never focus on the point or ever admit they're wrong about anything: it would crucify their egos.
Look in the mirror, Charles.
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#334
Well who'd a thowt it?
Westhoughton a Tory Republic!
Must be all that new build for commuters.
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Jack Straw is challenged over energy firm's cash gift
Mandelson discussed tariffs with oligarch
Business as usual in the Labour party...
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#342
It will come as no surprise that people you would choose to talk to would welcome Boris as PM.
As if we're not in enough trouble!
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You're one of the biggest liars and manipulators around here, and clearly get a kick out of upsetting people.
Reuters carries a story which shows how brainscans prove bullies have no mental discipline and get a thrill out of causing pain.
This sums up the Tory party and their online mob. I'm just calling you on it. If you're not ashamed you should be.
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As the world slides into recession, leaving ever-growing numbers of people unemployed and possibly homeless, all that some contributors to this blog seem capable of is venting bile and picking nits.
The purpose of course is to stir up fear and anxiety in the voting population to ensure that Labour is voted out at the next election.
Fair enough if you feel that is an ethical basis on which to run your politics, but what then? The Cameron brigade? They are at least as much in hock to big business as Labour, so the very rich will continue to get ever richer, and will also continue to bugger up the world economy (to their financial advantage, naturally).
Can we find a way of electing a government that will give a toss about ordinary working people?
I doubt it, but I'd rather have a constructive conversation about how we might make that happen rather than wade through the partisan tripe (with honourable exceptions) that I read on british blogs.
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re: 372, CEH
You're one of the biggest liars and manipulators around here, and clearly get a kick out of upsetting people.
LOL. Says the guy who peddles mysticism on a politics blog. Is Cameron's 13-point lead too much for you to handle? Poor you.
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#372 CEH said "You're one of the biggest liars and manipulators around here, and clearly get a kick out of upsetting people."
Dear oh dear.
I don't know enough about your target or his/her behaviour to judge the accuracy of your insult but it's venom is plain to see.
I read somewhere of a traditional Zen tale called The Gift of Insults. Perhaps you prefer one of your own - A Gift for Insults ?
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#297 real truth
So what you're saying is that because the Tories and Lib Dems are not saying anything of interest to Scottish voters, that means it's a failure for Labour.
If more Tory and Lib Dem voters had stuck with their parties and not shifted to the SNP, you would say that Labour's performance was better?!
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re #9 by brighton_mike
One of the best blogs on this topic, it not only states the obvious about the Glenrothes by-election (missed by Nick Robinson in his headlong rush to please the Government), but it also gives valid comment about the dire performance of the Labour Governments of the last decade and shows why the vote could not possibly be connected with Brown or his supposed 'bounce'.
Since it was a local topic which appears to have swayed the voters, this particular by-election result has no significance whatever concerning the broader picture in the UK.
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373. vor_tecks
I found this comment interesting and on certain issues, there is a legitimate argument. But, if this post had been written by an anti-Nu Labour supporter, I am convinced the moderators would have banned it for obscenities.
"and will also continue to bugger up the world economy "
The word starting with 'b' has caused comments I have submitted to be moderated, but then I was suggesting that Brown had caused the b------ing up! I do feel we should have impartiality from the BBC.
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I must say that I am thoroughly fed up with the Tory mantra that the economic collapse is the fault of Labour under Brown, are they suffering from collective amnesia, the Tories under Thatcher took the lid of regulation do they not remember the Big Bang,well I do and identify this with the growth of the, sod you Jack I'm making a packet Yupies.
It's nice to see the appologist for the Tories squirming when against all predictions the Labour Party won in Glenrothes
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379. anabiosis wrote:
"sod you Jack I'm making "
Yet another example of what I pointed out in my comment #378.
I couyldn't care less, but is there now a new policy of what is obscenity, or is it onlt permissible for Nu Labour supporters to curse?
"It's nice to see the apologist for the Tories squirming when against all predictions the Labour Party won in Glenrothes"
It would have been more surprising if Nu Labour had captured Henley!
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#380
Kindly excuse my typographical errors. Seemed I b*****ed up the keyboard.
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#379.
No, no, no.
Gordon Brown laid out the current regulatory system that has failed so catastrophically in the Bank of England Bill in 1997.
Compare and contrast our banking crisis to countries like Spain and Swedish with better (not more) regulation?
The Opposition warned them in 1997 that banks could not be held accountable to excessive lending and risky practices.
Like Labour, you must try harder.
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How was that a venomous insult?
Your kind spout viceous hateful insults at people and see nothing wrong and faint with shock when you get a negative comment in return, even if its just stating a fact. Never heard of power to the people? pull the other one. He's the court jester.
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re: 379, anabiosis
Labour won Glenrothes because of local issues, ie. rising care home charges under the SNP. Any attempt to claim that the win is an endorsement of Brown's handling of the economy is NuLaba spin. Proof: the Tories have a 13-point lead.
What is Brown's fault is that he did nothing to protect us from the economic crash. He was warned many times but he decided to just keep on taking the credit for (and taxes from) an artificial 'boom' when he could've done something about it. And then when you consider Iraq, ID cards, the NHS IT-system white elephant, Iraq, increasing surveillance*, 42 days, Iraq, donations scandals, microchips in dustbins, stealth taxes, Iraq etc etc, well, anyone who hasn't been brainwashed can see that a vote for NuLab is a vote against freedom.
*Only North Korea is spied on more than us.
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# 378 re my # 373
I betray my Lancashire roots by cavalier use of such language, so apologies to any fellow bloggers offended by it.
Honestly, I am amazed that in an environment where childishly vicious name calling (liar, idiot and worse) is acceptable, the word I used and you tried to would be deemed unacceptable. Quite extraordinary.
When faced with the situation you describe, I invariably subscribe to the **** up rather than the conspiracy theory, but the frequency of your experiences has obviously led you to conclude otherwise.
I wish that all views, moderately expressed and free of personalised insult, would escape censorship.
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#377 saltfordman
The reason that Glenrothes has no significance for the wider UK is because Labour won and increased their share of the vote.
If Labour lost, would you be talking about local issues, or would you be saying Brown is massively unpopular and mocking Labour politicians attempt to play the 'local issue' card.?
It would only have had a lot of significance if Labour had lost. Things only have any significance at all if they are damaging to the Labour party.
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#360 DistantTraveller
Not so much about history as identity. That history (or what people think is "their" history) shapes identity is well known.
One of the areas of misunderstanding I see on this blog is the regular reference to Brown and Darling as "Scots". In one sense they are, but their over-riding identity is "British".
Most people have multiple "identities", but one is dominant, and there is a wish to see that represented politically.
There are not 4 nations within the UK, but 5 - to be primarily "British" is just as valid as being primarily "Scots" or "English". If you are British, then you and I have a problem, since you want your "country" to include mine!
In reality, most Scots accept that in a globalised world, we need to voluntarily share aspects of our sovereignty in a larger Union. Fortunately, a much larger and powerful Union exists in the EU, and there is little opposition to the EU here.
If the UK is to survive in some format, then their politicians need to recognise that the Westminster Parliament is of decreasing importance to us, and that there is increasingly less need for the UK Government to represent us in Europe.
My personal preference is for a Confederal UK, but the argument is being polarised by Labour and the SNP on the status quo and independence.
There has been insufficient polling to be be more accurate, but 75-80% of Scots want either independence in Europe, or more power for the Scottish Parliament within the UK (only c. 5% would like a return to the pre-devolution settlement)
Westminster intransigence on the constitutional structure of these islands will ensure that (in time) you will have "not have been asked".
PS Scots don't want their MPs voting on English matters. If you guys continue to allow it, that's your problem - not ours.
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385. , vor_tecks
# 378 re my # 373
I betray my Lancashire roots by cavalier use of such language, so apologies to any fellow bloggers offended by it.
Honestly, I am amazed that in an environment where childishly vicious name calling (liar, idiot and worse) is acceptable, the word I used and you tried to would be deemed unacceptable. Quite extraordinary.
I AGREE WITH YOU. IT'S PATHETIC THE WAY SOME BLOGGERS, NOT MANY, ONE REALLY, ARE CRUEL IN THE NAMES THEY CALL OTHERS. YOU DIDN'T OFFEND ME MATE, I JUST TRIED TO SEE IF THOSE 'SHOCKING' WORDS GOT PAST THE MODERATORS!
wish that all views, moderately expressed and free of personalised insult, would escape censorship.
HERE AGAIN I HEARTILY AGREE!
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382. PhaetonFlanFlinger
wrote
"No, no, no."
Are you saying that the philosophy behind light regulation came into existence in 1997?
Do you not recall the attitude towards the removal of regulation under the previous regimes starting with Margaret Thatcher's government?
Do you not recall the leading influence of Milton Friedman on both Thatcher and Regan and how his (now shown to be disastrous) philosophy of regulation would somehow result in self-regulation.
If you do not recall these influences perhaps you should look into the history.
None of this excuses the present regime, of course.
It should also be recalled that the Tories where always advocating the removal of all regulation and were even more against regulation than were Labour.
We are left with no main stream party that took an appropriate attitude to regulation over the last decade, not even the Lib Dems (as far as I can see)!
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re: 383, wilky
Jesters were allowed to speak openly and honestly and presented the (often political) truth through their capering. Even a broken clock such as yourself was right this time!
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390 pttpl
"Jesters were allowed to speak openly and honestly and presented the (often political) truth through their capering. Even a broken clock such as yourself was right this time!"
not always. being a jester sometimes allowed them to voice controversial opinions because they were ignored by those who didn't know they were satirists as fools.
The description seemed to fit. If you think that's a compliment fair enough. Broken clock right twice a day? I don't send comments every minute like you. So that's almost a compliment.
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#387 oldnat
"If you are British, then you and I have a problem, since you want your "country" to include mine!"
Well, I have always considered myself British, certainly not out of a desire to subjugate Scotland, but simply because that reflects the reality of the Union. Britain isn't a country, but it is a union, and yes it does include Scotland (for now at least!)
Perhaps it is mainly the English who use the term 'British', I don't know.
Over the last few years we have seen an influx of population from Europe, Asia, Africa and the Far East, adding to the indigenous culture and history. As many people will have settled in Scotland as well as England, this suggests to me a further harmonising of our collective populations. Yes, we have different histories, but the present is inextricably intertwined. The idea that Scotland is more 'European' than 'British' seems odd to me, particularly as England is also part of Europe.
Perhaps a Federal UK as you suggest would be an option, but details do matter. What we have at the moment is a total mess! I'm still not sure why you are so keen on the current European model when it is manifestly so undemocratic (I'm talking about the huge power of the unelected commission). The EU is badly in need of reform and after 14 years still can't get its accounts signed off.
I do smile at your understandable desire to disinherit Brown and Darling. They seem very Scottish to us down South! You talk about multiple identities: Batman and Robin spring to mind for this dynamic duo!
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The voice from the telescreen was still pouring forth its tale of prisoners and booty and slaughter, but the shouting outside had died down a little. The waiters were turning back to their work. One of them approached with the gin bottle. Winston, sitting in a blissful dream, paid no attention as his glass was filled up. He was not running or cheering any longer. He was back in the Ministry of Love, with everything forgiven, his soul white as snow. He was in the public dock, confessing everything, implicating everybody. He was walking down the white-tiled corridor, with the feeling of walking in sunlight, and an armed guard at his back. The long hoped-for bullet was entering his brain.
He gazed up at the enormous face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the dark moustache. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved New Labour.
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re: 392, DistantTraveller
Batman and Robin spring to mind for this dynamic duo!
LOL. Dick Dastardly and Muttley, I'd say...
The populace are aghast
At Brown rewriting the past
And that immoral scheme
To enforce his regime,
Like Dick Dastardly he'll come last!
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354 Sicilian
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354 Sicilian
I couldn't agree more about eating out compared with home. Good quality ingredients cooked well - can't beat it. It helps to have a husband who loves cooking too!
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Nick
I read that mandleson has started to admit to discussing tariffs with Oleg.
So far he confesses to discussing 'wood tariffs', not yet confessing to discussing 'aluminium tariffs'.
Also in his normal duplicitious way, Mandleson says that when he has previously said had 'never' done such a thing, 'never' only referred to the time on the yacht in corfu.
Nick, are you going to follow up this - the main - corfu/yacht story? Or was two weeks of chasing osborne over a non-story your only interest?
I wonder what Peston thinks of this all?
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Last week the polls showed a swing towards Gordon Brown with the gap narrowing btn Labour and the Conservatives. That was head line news across the media. This week the polls show the reverse to be the case yet you would be hard to find this being referred to on the news . Nice to see the media giving such an even handed approach to reporting. Bit like the bye election when no one in their real mind ever thought Labour was going to lose - unless they had been daft enough to believe Mandy of course.
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#386 balhamu
I see no logic in your post.
I agree with one statement, however, 'It would only have had a lot of significance if Labour had lost'.
This is eminently true since for a party to lose one of its safest seats would truly have great significance. Wish it had been so.
The main argument still stands that a by-election won on a local issue cannot have any bearing on the broader standing of a party or its leader.
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Just come back from Bluewater to find that I've been told by Chartlie to grow up and get real because my comments on the ICM poll were designed to sow fear among Labour supporters. If that's what it succeeds in doing then bring it on. As Gordon Brown himself says mid term polls don't really mean anything. The problem is that this is not a mid term poll. It's half way through the third term and they should be better after a reported bounce.
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#306 The_Old_Boar
"As the Bank of England helpfully point out in their website FAQs, Scottish notes are not Legal Tender in the rest of the UK."
You couldn't be more selective if you tried. In the same paragraph it also reads:
"Legal tender has a very narrow technical meaning in relation to the settlement of debt. If a debtor pays in legal tender the exact amount he owes under the terms of a contract, he has good defence in law if he is subsequently sued for non-payment of the debt. In ordinary everyday transactions, the term ?legal tender? has very little practical application."
Also, in the section regarding Scotland and Norther Irish notes:
"Within the United Kingdom, banknotes are also issued by three note-issuing banks in Scotland and by four in Northern Ireland.
These note issues have to be backed pound for pound by Bank of England notes. Owing to the combined size of these issues ? well over a billion pounds ? it would be cumbersome for the Bank to hold ordinary Bank of England notes as cover. Instead, special one million and one hundred million pound notes - known as Giants and Titans - are used. These notes are not for general circulation. Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man are not part of the United Kingdom and are responsible for issuing their own notes.
The banks in Scotland are the Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland and Clydesdale Bank."
Clearly your understanding of Scotland's economics, both as part of the union and hypothetically if Scotland were