Challenging the Budget
Margaret Thatcher took on 364 economists who challenged her 1981 budget. I've not counted how many are now opposed to David Cameron's on the need for a fiscal stimlus but it's growing.
And it's not just economists or international bodies such as the IMF and EU (albeit that they say only those countries with healthy balance sheets should do it), it's also the 2 main business organisations - the CBI and the IOD.
Today the Times' Anatole Kaletsky goes for the jugular.
The Conservatives are, however, pointing to the latest minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee to back their contention that interest rates are being kept higher than necessary because of government promises to spend more and tax less.
The MPC considered a 2% cut rather than a 1.5% cut at its last meeting but decided "it would make sense for the Committee to reassess the required scale of monetary easing after the chancellor's pre-Budget report".
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surely what the Tory's are saying is that spending funded by extra borrowing is just going to come and bite us in the backside in a few months/years time.
Whereas reducing the spending increases wouldnt.
Anyway, surely the three options - Labour, Tory and Lib Dems - shoudl be put to the populous so we can decide which one we feel best, and therefore we have no one to blame but ourselves, if what option is chosen goes all Pete Tong.
You could call it Democracy, a strange thing, but it might just work.
Can we have an Election please?
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The same Anatole Kaletsky who in January of this year, in his Times article "Goodbye to all that: the worst is over for the global credit crunch", predicted that...
...conditions are not nearly as bad as the headlines and market pundits suggest. In Britain, there seems to be almost no chance of economic and financial disasters
comparable to those suffered from 1990 to 1992.
...I believe that the global credit crisis, far from taking a turn for the worse, is now almost over.
...There will be no US recession.
...Stock markets around the world will rise in 2008
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3182286.ece
Shock horror - Cameron must be devastated not to have this prophetic economic genius on-board...
Out of interest Nick, how many people are against Brown's plan??
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(albeit that they say only those countries with healthy balance sheets should do it),
Nick makes it sound like this caveat is an incidental condition.
It isnt. Its key and core to the argument.
SO Nick is our balance sheet healthy or not?
How do the list of liabilities stack up.
Do tell!!!
All hail the Android Emperor ..... Hey Nick!
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How even handed of you Nick, I don't suppose you bothered to look up this guy in Wikipedia did you. I am sure you didnt, because its not the message you want to get accross is it?
and I quote
"Mr Kaletsky is frequently lampooned in the Private Eye, who highlight various and often wildy speculative economic and political predictions made in his journalism, which turn out to be wide of the mark."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatole_Kaletsky
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Nick,
how could anybody fall for this liberal guff.
I would never go along with the idea that that the ends justify the means. Let's collapse the pound, raising the price of imports, and lower interest rates, so as people stop saving because their return is so small it is not worth it.
The implications for inflation with a falling pound are appalling. We want to export our own unemployment. Our manufacturing base over the years has been decimated, our balance of payments would provide evidence of that. The one saving grace was our services industry, well we know what is happening to that.
As for deflation, well we need that to bring back some semblance of order. One minute we are told that inflation is bad, now deflation is bad, I agree but for who. For example, as the demographic time bomb hits then peoples wages will decline rapidly. This is on the basis that pensions are nothing but deferred wage, anybody disagree. Deafening silence.
The utilitarians are in the ascendency at the moment, the happiness principle, but there is also the harm principle, and if the chancellor reflates on monday then we are harming the future for our children and grandchildren.
I could go on but the answer is higher taxes now, higher interest rates, an increase in unemployment, a decrease in wages, lower asset values, in short a bit of pain now, but in the long run, well no pain no gain, so go for it conservatives, let's enter the real world.
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So the IMF and the EU want governments to give a fiscal stimulus but only in COUNTRIES WITH STRONG BALANCE SHEETS. Doesn't that rule us out. We start with one of the largest budget deficits in the world and the government has taken on huge liabilities in the banking sector. On Monday Willem Bluiter argued that the credit worthiness of the British state was in a worse state since the time of the Stuarts. Perhaps it's not so stupid to risk adding even more borrowing on top of what will already happen as the recession takes hold.
The main problem at the moment is that the banks are not lending to business at rates which reflect the recent cuts. A fiscal stimulus won't address that.
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Nick
If you've not counted the economists, but the list is growing - how do we know if there are 3, 30, or 300? You intimate that the number is high, by your reference to the number of Margaret Thatcher's economists but none of this is backed up with facts.
Nick - sort yourself out!
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Seems that it's not just economists that are gunning for 'Dave'.
Simon Heffer was particulary scathing in yesterday's Telegraph.
The tories are finally wakening up to the fact that having lost yet another election to Tony Blair, they decided to elect someone who (they thought) was smoother and slicker than Blair, forgetting that the next election would not be against Blair.
A common mistake of oppositions, to want to fight the previous election all over again - and hope they will win the re-run.
Cameron can be slick at presentation and faux sincerity - but he is a politcal featherweight and not qualified to run our country.
Labour will win the next election unless the tories find someone who is capable of changing their party and can be seen to be competent enough to be Prime Minister. Trouble for them is that they have left it too late, there is not enough time left to change the party before May 2010.
Cameron has wasted over 3 years - he has spectacularly failed to change the tories and make them electable.
When will they ever learn????
Bill
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The CBI and the IOD are looking at the short term to protect their members against the current problems. The fiscal stimulus - which you admit the IMF say we shouldn't provide - will eventually cause much more damage.
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As for the article you refer to - I notice it doesn't get much backing on the comments below.
Phrases like
"your recent commentaries are so far from reality that your column is becoming an ever greater jok"
"Mr Anatole Kaletsky is manifestly very uninformed. Gordon Brown himself has been openly admitting to seeking funds from the Chinese and the Saudis"
"About time Anatole Kaletsky got real and stopped promoting the failed economic policies of Brown."
Suggest the jugular was missed rather badly
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Nick,
I have said before if politicians keep agreeing that something must be done, and this is what we will do, and agree then be afraid, very afraid. If somebody does not argue against Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling then they will say you didn't say anything and therefore you agree with us.
May I suggest that a quote from Pericles would be appropriate, 'the worst thing is to rush into action before the consequences have been properly debated' History of the Peloponnesian War.
We are told that this global recession has come from nowhere and that nobody saw it coming, I disagree but that's another story. So, if it was then the powers that be who did not see it coming, no more boom and bust, then surely they are rushing into action, unless they did of course actually see it coming but did nothing to warn us, nor do anything to prevent it.
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News Flash! The tories aren't in power! Repeat, the tories AREN'T in power! This is an attempt to spike their guns before they rip to shreds next week's pre-budget report. Bias bias bias.
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Anatole kaletsky is just another economist and as has been pointed out; the accuracy of economic forecasting has gone down as the number of economists has risen.
Do economic models incroporate asset abcked and mortgage backed securities as well as credit default swaps? Maybe not.
Cameron is right to point out that the Bank of England isn't and never was independent. The puppet master supremo was Gordon Brown from the beginning, which fact alone makes him culpable for the gigantic mess in which the banking system has found itself. He may not have been running a bank but he unshackeld the regulatory system in a way that allowed multiples of previous credit expansion.
This is why his cry from the opposition benches in 1988 "this is a boom built on credit" now looks so hypocritical.
He has allowed a bigger credit expansion than ever before in our history.
His answer - more government credit - to this problem is pouring gasoline on a raging inferno.
What a foolish thing to do.
It will never work, just like the banking bailout has only put money back into banks coffers but failed to restore confidence between banks becasue all the bankers know it doesn't solve the problem; it just delays the closing act.
Call an election.
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Nick,
I think that once again you are misrepresenting the Conservative position, so that you can run them down yet again.
I don't see the Conservative view as being against "fiscal stimulus" in principle. What they are against is the clumsy, misdirected, dogma-driven, heavy-handed approach being taken by Labour, that will - it seems - have marginal impact in the short term and saddle us with colossal debt in the longer term.
You have demonstrated time and again your appetite for tearing into Conservative policy like a starving man at the dining-table. But when are you going to start setting your teeth properly into the Government's policies?
After all, anything the Conservatives suggest right now is mood music - the decisions that will actually make a difference are the ones that come from the Government!
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Nick:
I think it is a good idea to challenged the budget....
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" albeit that they say only those countries with healthy balance sheets should do it". One hell of a qualification. I assume that Nick Robinson thinks that this does not apply to the UK.
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Fiscal stimlus? What is required is some confidence back into the economy. This will not be achieved by racking up yet more debt and confidence is not something you can 'buy'.
The UK economy is deep in do-do and all Brown knows what to do is throw yet more of OUR money at the problem.
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If Margaret Thatcher took on so many economists and took the country out of the same mess it is going into now then she was right.
For where were these economists only weeks ago when the banking system was in such a mess and none of them knew what to do.
They still don't now how this is going to pan out and jumping on a bandwagon to try to show that they do will only make them look even more riducous.
History won't tell them anything and more borrowing at this moment in time will achieve nothing but a longer and deeper recession.
There will be lots of pain whichever way it goes but only clever business people will find the way out of this with the help of sensible government.
I agree with Cameron and those advising him. At least he is beginning to form a plan of attack rather than losing his head like some others I could mention.
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For all his blustering, Kaletsky has missed a fundamental point - UK PLC is not nearly in as good a condition as he would have us believe.
Our concept of personal wealth is wildly over-inflated, based on a housing market that was left to spiral out of control. That he should now defend the Prime Minister, who as Chancellor was the root of the problem, is ludicrous.
No-one likes the fact we're about to enter a recession, but it is inevitable. Frittering away billions in borrowed money will only prolong the agony.
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In that Kaletsky column of January, he says:
"At the maximum, the US and European governments will announce public backing for their national mortgage and banking systems ? similar to the action already taken by Gordon Brown to guarantee the deposits in the entire British banking system."
Um, I was not aware Brown did any such thing?
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2. Mister_E_Man
LOL fantastic, well done.
Shame Nicks research isnt so exhaustively complete or even careful.
Still chuckling
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I suppose guff like this helps journalists to reinforce the astonishing levels of self-importance they attribute to themselves and their opinions, a bit like the politicians, really.
The real tragedy is that sixty million people are being led to their economic doom by an incompetent government, an ineffective Opposition and all the while a supine media cheerleads on the sidelines.
We get the government we deserve I suppose.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Well done Nick.
Yet more biased reporting on behalf of NuLabTV.
You were found out as early as post 2 and you need to start an new thread ASAP to avoid further humiliation.
The fact that Brown has effectively ran the economy/UK for 11-12 years based upon a bubble of debt just does not register with you. The fact that he continues to pursue the same policies will just create a far worse situation in the years to come.
Its time to cut up the UK credit card and start paying back the debts, not increase the credit limit as taxes reduce. Live within our means, government and people.
Mortgages no more than 3x salary. Only one credit card per household etc.
NuLab really do have something on you for your constant attacks on the opposition and the easy ride you give to Brown.
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Seeing as Nick holds great store by the IMF, shall we take a look at their growth predictions for 2009.
China? up 8.5 percent
Russia?up 3.5 percent
Brazil?.up 3.0 percent
Eastern Europe?Up 2.5 percent
Canada?up 0.3 percent
Mexico? up 0.9 percent
Japan.. down 0.2 percent
Euro Zone? down 0.5 percent
Britain?..down 1.3 percent
Yes folks were worse off than Mexico.
SO Nick how well placed are we to weather this global crisis then, got to be worth a comment ? No? Your emperor told me that we were BEST placed to weather it.
Hows the debt looking, healthy balance sheet? saved a few quid during the best decade that any of us can remember did we?
Or are we broke, over taxed, over spent and still spending rather too much?
I miss Andrew Marr.
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Nick,
These days you are doing Mandelson & Campbell's job for them. Whatever happened to unbiased comment from the BBC?
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#23
"We get the government we deserve I suppose."
Sad but true.
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#8 I think Cameron will actually be rather pleased that someone like Heffer, who is still smarting over Thatcher's ousting almost 18 years ago to the day, hasn't got a good word to say about him!
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It seems to me that the MPC are attempting to feed their financial buffalo on financial cat biscuits. A 2% cut will still not be enough to rescue the UK economy!! Any interest cut needs to be a minimum of atleast 13% - that way banks can re-capitalise themsleves by leeching savers money from their accounts, and the public will be able to make personal profit just by taking out loans. That will restore confidence and increase spending. If deflation is the biggest threat, then drastic action is required!
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Being condemned by Anatole Kaletsky must surely mean Cameron is on the right track!
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Now I know you're winding us up. I only know of Kaletsky through his reputation in Private Eye. Mind you, it was through Private Eye that I discovered what a crook Robert Maxwell was so I'm inclined to believe them about Kaletsky too. Their assessment is that a guy could make a lot of money just betting against him.
As for these 'economists', the IMF, the EU, the CBI and the IoD' that have been put forward as backing Gordon Brown. How is that possible? Gordon Brown hasn't come up with anything concrete to back at the moment.
More to the point what do this assembled group of worthies have to say about the economic mastermind that brought the UK to the point of complete economic collapse? Have they got any thoughts on that?
What's their record on predicting how things would develop when this particular borrow and squander bubble was in its infancy waaaaaay back in 2001. Did any of then offer any 'I told you so way back in 2001....' Just so we can get a feel for what kind of a grip on reality these economists have.
Please do take the time to find out if any of them predicted any of this. I realise that some of them may not be old enough but we had a prequal to this housing bubble way back in ancient economic history, decipherable only by those skilled in reading illuminates Latin from vellum manuscripts about what happened waaaaay back in, ooooh, 1988.
I think you'll find that these worthies 'agree' with Gordon Brown in the same sense that we were all 45 mins away from being annihilated by WMD.
He's simply declared it to be true.
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I try to avoid commenting on this blog by and large since it seems to be home to such a bunch of deeply-entrenched positions, but I have to say that I think this particular article is astonishingly biased. Starting off with a large number - relating to somebody else - followed by a vague reference to a "growing" number but no specific identification and then referencing one person's article seems to me to be a classic case of damning by association rather than providing any specific facts.
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Nick
I had to laugh when I read this:
Firstly, Thatcher did go against the economic consensus in the 79/81 recession by pursuing supply side policies. You omit to say however that she was right, and a key factor behind Labour's 1997 win was their backing for similar policies!! Labour and you may have forgotten then, but the public haven't.
Secondly, Anatole has got this wrapped largely round his neck: e.g. yes, the decline of the pound is part of the solution (thank God we're not in the Euro and can devalue to reduce the pain, unlike Eire and Italy), but the point is the pound has declined by more than even than the US dollar against the Euro, and declined against the US dollar itself: ie what the international markets are saying is that the UK is worst positioned of the lot. Which considering the state of both the US and Euro economies is pretty scary.
And this is just one example of how he confuses cause and effect!
Bottom line: tax cuts today will equal tax rises tomorrow, absent cuts to spending. The first question is whether the benefit today outweighs the pain tomorrow. The second is, can we afford it in any event?
Somehow, I have a very horrible feeling about the answer to both. So, please don't say we weren't warned when taxes go up in 18+ months time. Just as we're coming out of recession, and possibly putting us right back into one.
PS What ever happened to PRUDENCE? This was critical to my support for Labour.
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Is this the same IMF who in June predicted the UK economy would grow 1.6% this year (actual nil) and 1.6% next year (forecast -1.6% now, likely to be -3%) ?
Yes.
Since the IMF did not see this coming to quote them as a bunch of experts seems perverse at best and plain stupid at worst..
But hey you are the BBC and got to support the Government...
If you are going to delve into economcics as well as Peston, it is clear the BBC are as usual overmanned as well...
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Another classic from the Propaganda arm of the Labour Party, the Itar-Tass-BBC...
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Bill
"Cameron can be slick at presentation and faux sincerity - but he is a political featherweight and not qualified to run our country."
The same thing i recall was said about Obama,
No matter what happens Gordon Brown will forever be linked with this Fiscal Fiasco and labour are unelectable with him and his team at the front.
He's fooling no one running around the world trying to look important,while dodging questions on responsibility...People might not vote for Cameron but they certainly will not be voting for Brown....
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It's all very well borrowing billions to give away in tax credits but the recipients of the windfall will not be those who will eventually have to foot the bill in higher taxes.
Again the middle class will be screwed by nuLab.
Living on benefits has become a lifestyle choice under this government and this will only add to the numbers.
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Nice allusion to Thatcher there too for added winding up of the Labour apologists. Nothing guaranteed to start a good eye-bulging, phlegm-speckled, two-minute hate from some than mentioning Lady Thatcher.
It's all her fault you know. And the Americans. And the banks.
Gordon knew it was coming back in Jan 2008 he just didn't tell anybody. Apart from his reliable mate Hans Christian Mandelson.
It's plausible alright. You'd want to have been off your head not to see how this was going to develop. Thing is, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Gordon is completely off his head.
I guess he didn't want to talk down the pound or take any action that would have given us even a six month to a year start on addressing the issues.
Naaaah. Far better to just continue with the illusion that all was well on the off-chance he could ride his luck for another 18 months. After all, he'd got away with it since 2001, why should he come unstuck now? Why 2008? Why not 2010. Q4 ideally. Land the Tories with the mess.
I no longer think it matters if Labour win in 2010. The damage is already irreparable. I say this with a heavy heart but we are, financially and morally doomed.
The economy is in tatters and the government devotes all its energies to covering up its legion incompetencies. They wheel out any half-quotation as 'justification' for whatever they'd got into their raddled minds in the first place and then absolve themselves of all blame when it goes wrong.
Meanwhile the FTSE is 15% lower than it was in 1997.
In eleven years the value of our 100 largest companies has actually decreased. And this in the first quarter of a recession.. What'll it be like in another two years?
So he's stripped all that value out of the economy, he's doubled national debt. Trebled mortgage debt. House prices falling faster than any time in recorded history.
But look - we've got some people who agree with Gordon that we should borrow even more money.
One born every minute I'd guess.
We should take all their crayons off them until they learn their times tables.
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I have been trying to post a link to an article on Bloomberg.com, but I keep getting
"There has been a problem......", and it won't upload. I'm sure it's nothing sinister.
I was going to suggest that if Nick wants to show some balance, he could reference this and tell us how it rather supports the major questions being raised over the fiscal probity of the fiscal stimulus. Fat chance, of course.
For anyone interested, there is a link from the first comment on Guido's blog. It makes quite frightening reading.
http://www.order-order.com/2008/11/unfunded-government-spending-up-14.html
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Nick,
let's go for the jugular shall we.
I read the International Herlad Tribune and if you are going to quote the Times then why don't you report this little gem.
Does anybody know that President Sarkozy is going to hold another summit in a few weeks time in Paris, no Obama to be present.
It is to be held on January 8 and 9 and is to be co-hosted by yes Tony Blair. Only it actually not a summit, it is to bring togther political leaders and prominent thinkers to discuss issues like globalization and the values of capitalism. So it is not actually a summit but it is well like one. I wonder if Gordon Brown will attend, or send anybody.
As for Sarkozythe IHT describes a lot of what has been going on a 'posturing and preening' would you agree with that analysis Nick?
So, I think that we ought to be told, what exactly is going on.
It is interesting that apparently Bush thought that the closure of the recent summit was left with the impression that the leaders had reaffirmed the importance of free amrkets, free trade and the primacy of national regulation.
Can we hear from Gordon what he thought had been agreed, because I think we ought to be told. Can't wait for Obama to take office, American jobs for American workers!
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Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!.................
Nick - have Peter and Alistair got you locked in the dungeon in Gordon's castle on top of the beanstalk making you type things?
Kaletsky = Joker. Do you read Private Eye?
We don't have a healthy balance sheet. That is the whole point!!
Given debt levels can we afford Fiscal Stimulus when the UK's own sub prime market collapse is still underway (and UK Government has a large chunk of it on the countries books).
Look at Granite and Northern Rock.
Is it possible that the Fiscal Stimulus (AKA the election bribe) is what we should spend our last few quid that is available on the latest credit card on?
I suppose you don't really care if Gordon bankrupts the country and we have to go to the IMF. You'll continue to get your BBC pay cheque which we are legally obliged to cough up for.
Luckily Gordon has no questions to answer to. We can just keep on bashing the Conservatives.
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Further insights into the economic forecasting of AK on Feb 5th.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3427889.ece
It's a bit unfair really as Google allows anyone to go back and see what "economic sages" previously wrote .
If economists were always correct we would only need one.
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Economists are as despised as bankers at the moment.
After all it was on the advice of economists that the country and banks have ended up in such a mess.
I wonder that any of them dare put their heads above the parapet after this.
Margaret Thatcher ignored them?
Good for her and so will Cameron if he is to get us out of the mess we're in.
Don't rely on Gordon he's trying to find out where his other lost heads have got to.
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I notice a lot of comments on this newslog which accuse Nick and the BBC of biased reporting.
As "experts" are making different forecasts on the extent and depth of this current economic crisis and its implications for the UK daily, I find it difficult to tell whether individual reporters in the media are biased or not.
I do remember 1981. As I mentioned elsewhere, investigative journalism in the main national newspapers was in decline by then and, in my opinion, has not been considered worth investing much in by the major media groups. This is understandable. Popular taste proves it by enjoying column inches on media people doing comic turns on the dance floor.
It remains for reporters to state the facts and quote the main players in the current stories. This usually entails quoting Government and opposition party ministers and "experts". If the former are quoted, there is, according to bloggers, a bias. If the opposition parties get an airing, there is, according to bloggers, a bias.
It's a lose, lose situation!
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i agree with number one there.
but looking at whats been said by all parties on the ecconomy and dealing with this downward spiral.
each has ideas and each has over the top concepts that will do more damage in the long run and there predeliction for infighting and sniping at there opposition shows none realy has a clue and that all are unfit to sit in westminster.
surely the people of this country have had enough of these lilly livered namby pamby media hounds that hang around westminster like a bad smell, wouldnt a honest change for the better be the right move.
all i can think of is for the people to decide there own fate.
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Aha, yet another insightful piece of dis-information from the Labour Media Unit (or BBC News as it also known).
Nick, there was a time when every now and then you were incisive. Now, unfortunately, your habit of simply cutting and pasting the latest statement from the Labour Party Press department is getting ever so slightly boring.
No analysis, no news, nothing interesting; just a quick swipe reinforcing the party-line.
You're looking SO transparent.
Give your head a shake, have a word with yourself and start acting like a political journalist.
You're supposed to be objective - remember?
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Careful Nick. You'll have Iain Dale onto you again.
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So we've had a great decade - all spent far too much (mostly borrowed) and the gov spent more money that you could shake a stick at. Now what's going to happen?
We'll start from the premise that gov spending last year is the base, so in future if we have the sort of boom economy we had during the past few years then gov will get roughly the same revenue. But we won't see those days again.
Credit will be more difficult to come by - so a reduction in retail VAT revenue
Houses will NEVER be as expensive in real terms - so not the same stamp duty for the gov
Unemployment will take some considerable time to return to 2007 level (unless we shift more onto invalidity) - so less PAYE & more benefits
Less revenue in company taxation I'm betting
The list goes one..... and at some point we have a hell of a debt to start paying off!
Question: Are my taxes going to go up a lot or a hell of a lot? - or should we just leave our mess to our kids?
The gov could have borrowed over the past years to fund infrastructure, but it didn't want. Instead they sat back, let the public borrow and spend and they skimmed their 17.5% off the top.
Smoke and mirrors anyone! Our debt, their debt, all seems the same now
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And as for Kaletsky...what can you say about the intelligence of a man who only 6 months ago was writing this sort of thing?
"On balance, however, to bet on a prolonged slump is to bet against economic theory and human nature. ?This time is different? is much more likely to be true on the way up than on the way down."
He couldn't find the jugular with a detailed map and a battalion of surgeons.
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Nick
Kaletsky is well known for being a bit out of left field as far as economics goes. You really should know this and not regard one of his articles as a condemnation of Tory policy.
The words in brackets in your second paragraph are hilarious. This is precisely the point - we are not in a good position. See Willem Buller's blog in the FT (an economist ten times more respected and far more in line with economic mainstream opinion).
If Gordo put on the public balance sheet all the liabilities that should be there (PFI, NR, B&B,RBS) rather than this risible figure of 37% of GDP I think the IMF and the EU would consider a fiscal stimulus of the type Labour are proposing now as suicidal for the UK.
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You're becoming a bit of joke Mr Robinson. Can you honestly claim this latest blog article to be neutral?
The naming of economists who are supportive of the government is getting a bit tiring. Paul Krugman last week and now this blog article? With the benefit of hindsight did those 300 economists get it right or wrong?
Stop spinning yourself into circles and actually take this government to task about its policies. Do they stand up, do they make sense? Why have the IMF placed us at the bottom of the pile for growth? Why has the pound plummeted? What does it mean for inflation if it continues?
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I have only recently just started reading this Blog. I have to say in all honesty that the comments about political bias against the Tories from this Blogger is in my opinion fair to say the least.
In the majority; nearly all of Nicks' posts have attacked the Tories or their policies. Very few of Nicks' posts actually hold 'Gordon Blunderpants' (or his political cronies) the REAL architect of our finacial misery to account.
Most of time the posts are a re-hash of comments made by someone else; this post for example. Each post is followed by comments in which Nick always states the obvious.
David Cameron has taken, in my view a courageous stance; unlike Blunderpants who as always 'reacts' to events. Blunderpants only solution is to call for meetings that give a 'Look I'm doing something' impression; in reality they achive very little except for a consensus on where to meet next.
I believe Mr Cameron is taking the correct stance and that Gordon Blunderpants is 'reacting' for short term political gains. Gordon Blunderpants is holding a busted flush, and soon we will see his hand holds nothing of real value for the people of this country.
Roll on the General Election.
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Nick please explain to me:
1:If emperor Brow is going to hand out cash to the low income families thru tax credits, who is going to pay for it later as the recipients hardly pay taxes or anyway will be too poor to contribute to the the increased taxes? Last middle class out switches the light out !!!
2: will the expected large increase in unemployment fall only on the private sector, any idea how many of Brown's own army of public workers will get the chop too? I am sure the Tories could reduce the huge bills of public workers without getting rid of a single nurse, teacher or any really useful public worker. The Nulabour Guardian is still full of adverts for expensive useless non productive public sector jobs !!!stopping hiring these guys and girls would be good start and popular with the real hard working families !!
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"The MPC considered a 2% cut rather than a 1.5%"
A bunch of "wise men"- the same "wise men" that created the conditions that gave rise to the bubble/crunch.
If they cannot tell us when they predict interest rates will rise to sensible long term values they have absolutely no credibility for lowering them to absurdly low levels.
Remember interest rates take a year to eighteen month to have any effect as we are always being told.
They should all be sacked.
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My understanding remains that both Europe and Asia can survive a total decoupling of the American economy over a three year period so have taken the position that this finance crisis is merely a blip. Money has a value of sorts but it's like rubber: you can stretch it anyway you want. By taking a leadership position and revitalising Keynesianism, Gordon Brown is helping shape perceptions and the realities that flow from that into a better outcome.
Nick is comfortable with asserting this situation is a blip, The Times has been upbeat for a while, and I had noticed the CBI was swinging behind Gordon Brown. Meanwhile, the Tories are addicted to cleverness and the illusions of the cardboard hero reading from a script when we live in a moment where the underlying trends demand subtlety and wisdom. I've commented on trends, personalities, and outcomes exhaustively, yet, the Tories still don't get it.
Cameron has liked to compare himself with Obama but this is only skin deep. They share similar personality types and neither has a clue, but Cameron is caught up in his own cleverness and opposition politics while Obama has an appreciation of better philosophies and struggle. Cameron's moment has passed while Obama's is yet to come. At the centre of this is Gordon Brown. To his left hand, heaven. To his right hand, hell. What can one say? Tread carefully.
Personally, I've quit listening to most of the media and online comment. It's just turned into too much of a blizzard to get your head around. The Tories and the usual suspects have tried to game the system and 'step outside the box' but that's just put them in la-la land. At both parliamentary and grass roots level the right have gone off on their own and lost me. Far from being a threat that's exactly where I want them. What's even more sweet is they did it to themselves.
Don't say I didn't warn you cuz I did, etcetera.
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Is Charles_E_Hardwidge is an anagram of Anatole Kaletsky?
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People say that Brown is fooling no one. Unfortunatley the opinion polls are beginning to disagree with that.
People on this board need to realise they do not represent a microcosm of public opinion. Just the well informed, stroppy, tory types.
Joe Blogg's opinion is formed by the media and hence Brown will win. The media will eventually stick the knife in Cam, and everybody will turn on him as an elitist tory boy.
Sad but true.
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You have got it wrong again the Tories are not against a fiscal stimulus what they are against is an unfunded one because we are in so much debt, it will cause sterling to drop further and we will pay back
for ever.
The clue is in the word those countries who have been fiscally responsible which we certainly have not.
Please stop this Labour propaganda, just because Brown and Mandelson say it it does not make it true.
Im starting to think you just say these things to annoy people, otherwise I would have to say its very poor reporting.
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Nick
Why oh why do you always have to have a left leaning agenda. Is there any chance you will ever have a blog questioning Labours action or is that not on your remit.
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Quite frankly I do not care whether the oppo, whether Tory or LibDem or whatever is right or wrong. To only have Brown suggesting a single route forward is not a choice. For a choice you need more than one option. If Brown stands up to the options then all well and good, but we need options. As it was economists who helped develop this mess they are well down the list of people who I listen to.
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I thank fellow bloggers on this forum who pointed out that Kaletsky's economic predictions have sometimes been err, less than accurate.
I will certainly factor that in when reading his pieces in the Times.
So, 'Dave' is off the hook then.
Well, not quite as this blogger had a chance meeting today with a photo-journalist of a few decades experience and has just about met everybody who is 'anyone' in the public eye.
I asked the journalist, as one does, to give me a list of those politicians who are truly horrible.
Surely, John Precott I ventured, after reading A A Gill's piece where gill stated that Prescott was possiby the nastiest person he'd ever met.
No, Prescotts OK said the journalist, but Gill is actually pretty awful himeself, a person with a massive ego.
I don't like Cameron, the journalist said, because he switches it on for the cameras.
Surely they all do that, I said.
Well, the journalist replied, Cameron has not got 'the common touch' and off camera he is arrogant.
Don't suppose 'Dave' will lose much sleep over this but it does make you wonder.
We proles do not usually get to know these politicians but these people in the media who trail around after them ... well, they surely get to know whats what.
PS. I also found out from this journalist that The Guardian does not need to make a profit as it is funded by a huge trust fund.
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The Conservatives have been wildly misrepresented in the media - especially the BBC. At every turn they have stood against Team Brown's wanton populist and vote hungry policies.
The Conservatives are the true "Party for the People". They want to help the pound in your pocket, while ensuring the country as a whole has a strong future.
Where New Labour seems intent on destroying the economy, the Conservatives seek to preserve it. They will eliminate waste and put the money saved to good use.
Margaret Thatcher - whose policies still haunt and define the party - was also misunderstood. Market based economies and a strong public sector have been proven to be the defining political system of the rich West.
Call an election now. The Conservatives will win by a landslide and get this country back on track. They have the policies that will save the UK and only the need to chance to implement them.
And yes - all that is indended to be sarcastic!
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Typically one sided bias commentary. I don't mean to make this personal Nick but I just don't think you are up to the job. Impartiality is critical in your job and whether it's because you're naturally Conservative and over compensating against that bias or whether you are naturally left wing and unable to hide the bias I don't know. Either way I cringe at most of your blogs, interviews and articles.
Time to move to the Mirror or some other rag.
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Nick - fair report.
What persuades me that Cameron is right is that Simon Heffer vehemently rubbishes him!!
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This is why BBC bias has such a large effect on the voting intentions of the public
UK dominated by left leaning BBC
In a poll of the top 100 journalists in the UK
"So 6 of the top 20 [SIC - ten???] and 11 of the top 20 are from the BBC, which just shows how much our political coverage is dominated by them. "
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#58 My-Pet-dragon
So what you are saying is that Gordon Brown will be elected at the next general election due to the media being biased towards him and the population being badly informed and ignorant.
That is probably the most depressing thing I have ever read.
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Funny. When I was confident Labour supporter I had Nick down as a Tory mouthpiece. Perhaps he falls foul of the supporters of any party he does not praise in the most glowing terms. Signs of even handedness.
The role of a political columnist is to point out the weakness and contraviews of any utterances of every poltician. This means of course that he has the easiest job in the world!!!
However the current problem is that there is no simple solution that anyone can support with any certainty. If you think you have got a sure fire solution you don't understand the problem. Which means that we are searching for the least bad solution. Even then we cannot agree with the time scale over which it should be judged.
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I must be missing something. I thought that the government of the day was responsible for managing the affairs of the State?
Nick, why are you so pre-occupied with the conservatives (Tories is old hat) strategies?
I am a conservative that is demanding the best out of the government of the day.
I damn the day that socialism influences the running of our country but at the moment we are stuck with them! I pray to God that Gordon's Christian upbringing keeps us afloat.
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Text courtesy of these people.....
Tax Cons
We learned yesterday that what Gordo giveth, Gordo will be takething away pdq. Immediately after the next election, he'll be throwing the tax gears into reverse to claw back the "giveaway" we'll be getting next week.
But how can such a strategy possibly work? Surely we punters will see straight through it, recognising that such short-term tax cuts are not something we can safely go out and spend. We'll need to save them in order to pay the deferred tax hikes post-2010.
In fact, there's a whole branch of economic theory devoted to just such situations. It's called Ricardian Equivalence, after the great 19th Century economist David Ricardo. Pointing out that government borrowing is nothing more than deferred taxation, Ricardo suggested* that it therefore makes no economic difference whether government funds itself via tax or debt. People cannot be conned by tax cuts funded by borrowing.
So is Gordo's giveaway a gigantic con?
Yes. But not in the way Ricardo might have suggested*. In truth, the upcoming tax cuts should have quite a strong impact on demand in the economy, not immediately negated by an increase in saving. That's because those that get the biggest tax cuts now will not be the same as those who can expect the biggest tax increases post-2010.
The main beneficiaries will be Gordo's favoured groups - in particular, families with children, lone parents, and those who have not saved. That is to say, they will be the welfare dependent groups who routinely consume more than they produce. Since they are very likely to spend every penny he gives them, he can rely on them to discharge their public duties in full.
The main payers post-2010 will be wealth producers and savers. These are the anti-social elements long reviled by forward thinking radicals. The bourgeoisie who think it's perfectly OK to save and accumulate personal wealth, and to ignore their wider duties to the state.
In other words this so-called tax giveaway is in reality a further massive extension to the discouragement of enterprise and effort Gordo has been working on ever since 1997. All implemented through his incomprehensible and wildly expensive tax credit system (see previous blogs too numerous to mention).
You might want to bear that in mind when you cast your vote in 2010.
*Footnote: In reality, Ricardo was far more subtle than the textbook version of Ricardian Equivalence might suggest. He understood that people are not rational calculating machines, and can easily get taken in by "fiscal illusion", under which immediate tax changes weigh more heavily in their minds than the eventual repayment of the associated government debt. Something that our politicos have always understood instinctively.
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Interesting article, also in the Times by their Economics Editor Gary Duncan (bet he doesn't share an office with AK)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5193309.ece
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I find it extraordinary that anyone let alone you Nick would be so foolish as to use Anatole Kaletsky's opinion to support any position. His prediction's from the probability of the Iraq war in 2003, to his prediction's upon the likelihood, depth and length of a recession in the last year have been laughable. His opinion now is therefore worthless.
When Lehman Brother's went under he leapt upon it like a drowning man to sustain a new position. It was all Paulson's fault. Such "insight" really isn't worth the £25k he charges his private clients in fact I would say it isn't worth 25p. Except as a comedy act.
If David cameron has gone against what AK says he probably is on the right side of the argumant.
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It actually doesn't matter who thinks what (eg - Brown or Cameron) as the general consensus is that no one has a clue what's going to collapse next.
Will it be consumer credit, insurance, property (and I don't just mean the blip we're going through)?
Even though Gordon Brown is joined by many learned others in his beliefs, it really is a day at a time.
Mind you, and I support neither Labour or Conservative, the Conservatives are looking pretty stupid so not much change there then.
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Nick what is your take on this?
The following is a quote from Busted Brown, post G20 meeting:
BBC article
Nick, has Brown lost the plot or is he just putting his mouth in gear before he engages his brain?
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Lets face it.
Nick Robinson does not think. He's not paid to. He's a journalist.
Since when do journalists THINK?
I mean actually think through the subject they write about. they can't.
If he did think, he would of course pointed out that mostly what we do in the UK makes not a jot of difference.
The world economy is dominated by the US. If Obama succeeds in righting the US , we will follow: slowly..
As for suggesting we are decoupled from the US as suggested by Cahles E H above.. that theory has been discredited when China started slowing down...
So watch the US and hope.. And don't spend all our money at once. Anyone who thinks this crisis is going to be over in less than 2 years is living in cloud cuckoo land...
5 years? maybe.
So to spend money rashly in year 1 and run out by year 4 looks somewaht imprudent - especially when the key player is the US.
We cannot solve this on our own.. in that at least Mr Brown is correct.
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I just like to say #62 and #70 very entertaining and informative comments. Sometimes the comments to these blog posts by Nick Robinson are far more interesting than the main article!
It's nice to see what people think. Well done the commenters, the editors, and the BBC for allowing them :)
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Here's a comment from the BBC website from the vacuous and utterly hopeless chief secretary to the treasury - appointed because she's Ed Balls' squeeze rather than on ability, because she has none - on borrowing:
"But I think it is right to increase borrowing to support the economy right now because we did cut debt while the economy was growing."
Excuse me? The predicted PBR for this financial year, when the Labour goverment was predicting economic growth was £43 billion.
The truth of the matter, I suspect, is that Gordon the Golem only ever cut debt in the first years of the Labour ministry when - to shore up his credibility - he had committed the government to sticking to pre-announced Conservative spending plans. Thus, he was awash with cash from the expanding economy but had nowhere to spend it, so he was only left with the reducing debt option.
All Gordon the Golem's self-imposed rules being binned and no one says a word. Even the so-called "independence" of the Bank of England has turned into a disaster, since forcing it to focus only on inflation has helped get us into this mess. The Bank of England didn't react when the economy was over-heating because inflation was perversely low and then it was too slow to react when this crisis broke meaning we could be heading for deflation.
What a mess. Made in the USA? No, made in the diseased mind of Gordon the Golem.
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jonathon_cook @ 70
It was interesting to read about Ricardo and how easily people can get taken in by "fiscal illusion", under which immediate tax changes weigh more heavily in their minds than the eventual repayment of the associated government debt.
Which reminded me of something I read recently about young children in an experiment whereby these under-fives were shown a sweet and told that if they waited five minutes whilst the adult left the room, then they could have two sweets upon the adult returning.
I cannot remember the percentage but a significant number of the children could not 'defer gratification' and ate the sweet before the adult returned.
According to the article, those children who managed to control their urge to eat the sweet and wait for the adult to return grew up to be considerably brighter and more successful than those who could wait.
The Government seems to be thinking along similar lines to those who devised the childrens 'sweet' test.
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While I agree with Cameron's attempt at financial "prudence" I think he's putting a lot of faith into the moronic but significant section of the public whose votes he needs at the next election.
We can already see the Labour narrative forming - "You failed the poor in their time of need" guff etc etc.
He needs to hammer home the point that tax cuts wont make a blind bit of difference if you don't have a job.
Interest rate cuts only seem to be punishing the minority who bothered to save a bit over the boom years. Personal/Business loan rates bear no resemblance to the the BOE rate.
Yes mortgage payments for the
few lucky ones on trackers are coming down but unfortunately the value of their homes depreciate
by even more.
Sad state of affairs and this is only the beginning.
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Driving home today the news on Five Live:
Government borrowing doubled in the first half of this tax year. Cumulative borrowing for the first half of the 2008/09 fiscal year at £37.6bn.
The balance sheet just gets worse.
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If I ever needed a reason to stop reading The Times it would be Anatole Kaletsky!
He did 'go for the jugular' today which can only mean that the Tory party is on the right track.
Could somebody please enlighten me as to how Kaletsky got his reputation as an Economic Guru?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
I've stopped watching The BBC news and current affairs programmes now because of all this patent pro Government bias. Much prefer the more balanced CH4, CH5 and Sky. Will probably leave this blog also for a while due to Nick's continued painting of a rosy, one sided Government picture. For goodness sake the Conservatives aren't even in office. They bear no responsibilty for our present position. Anyone would think that they were the guilty ones!
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I've seen it the other way around. Folks are sucked in by the immediate crisis and opposition sweet-talk with all its talk of alarm and magic bullet solutions, but are beginning to realise that it's a short-term difficulty that we can ride out. Been saying that for ages.
The "fiscal stimulus" is just grease on the wheel to get people over the immediate hump in the road. Folks still have to focus on developing business and connecting with markets, and the positive action taken now with helping business and keeping society on-board will help develop that.
By acknowledging this crisis and developing better structures and attitudes, and a more sensible approach to growth the overall outcome will be better. This is where unified vision, cooperation, and a little gentle forward moment will work its magic. But, I don't expect typical British procrastination to get this straight away.
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I never realized how biased the BBC is until I started blogging 4 weeks ago.
I thought the BBC was meant to be independent. Sadly you all too often parrot the Nu Liebour spin machine waffle.
If I was a politician I would be thrilled if "economists" were trashing my policies. Thank God Mrs T ignored them. And to think that Merv the Swerve was one of the signatories.
Where were all these bien pensants as this mother of all bubbles was developing?
The borrowing figures released today are spectacularly awful.
I was brought up to believe that if you screw up you dust yourself down and get on with life.
In the Nu Liebour fantasy world the sugar fairy never leaves your bedside. It's the economics of the madhouse but mirrors the times we live in where total non entities become celebrities, a world of "rights" without "responsibilities".
This government is totally and utterly discredited. They inherited a growing economy and after 11 years of spend spend spend have engineered the most spectacular bust in living memory.
Brown parades around the globe like the saviour of the world. What an insult to our intelligence.
Will Dave and the Eton Gang be any better? Well one thing is for sure, they could not be worse than this shower of incompetents.
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Surely Labour are following conservative policy by making cuts to services/finding savings. This is what will be used to pay for the financial stimulus not borrowing.
Nick - do us a favour, try and report the news, not be the news. It doesn't become you!
Any news on Mandy and his meetings? That's been about a month now!
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Using this as a follow-up to my last comment: the British economic fundamentals are broken. Risk averse and low-trust society are strangling Britain tighter and tighter, and attempts to reverse this have been met with stubborn resistance, and that's something both business and society has to accept responsibility for.
The Tory solution of deregulation and tax giveaways just fuels this negative cycle even more. Far from developing a sense of business vision and a caring society they're just rewarding fantasy. But, because the Tories are caught up in their own cleverness and sense of entitlement they don't get this and never will unless they change.
Procrastination is pretty well documented but the 'Brown Plan' of getting people to focus on creative business, a fair society, and expanding the economic sweetspot of long-term capital growth will help reverse that. Getting through that change is never easy and not everyone will agree but the choice is between embracing that or lurching back to the whiskey bottle.
If the government could hit a button and deliver a cost-free magic bullet solution they would. The media know this which is one reason why, I suspect, Nick and the rest of the more savvy media are pursuing the current line and leaving the Tories marginalised in la-la land. But, ultimately, it's down to business and voters to get a clue, stop complaining, and start succeeding.
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forever @ 81
Could somebody please enlighten me as to how Kaletsky got his reputation as an Economic Guru?
yes I can
it's because he's got a very serious "chess master" sounding name
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When taxes do have to rise where will GB get them from.
The unemployed?
The unemployed self-employed
The pensioner saver?
Bust businesses?
Private pension funds?
There might just be a problem when there aren't enough people left in work or business to pay them.
He'll just have to turn to the over inflated public sector then.
But I forgot. Doesn't the taxpayer have to pay for them too.
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constable @ 78
yes ... the ability to forego something today for something better tomorrow - aka deferred gratification - is the biggest of all indicators of life outcome
apart from how rich your parents are
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I'm increasingly drawn to the conclusion that Charles_E_Nobrain is just Gordon the Golem's Judas Goat.
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Something backward Britain should note:
Hewlett Packard is outperforming the market as it focuses on innovation and listening to customers.
The Japanese manga serialisation of Das Kapital is set to be the "publishing phenomenon of the year".
The message is simple: get a clue.
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BBC:
You might as well just hand Campbell and Mandelson your login and let them type their own topic summaries themselves; nobody would notice the difference.
Is anyone listening to you anymore? Well, labour MPs and staunch labour voters probably are, but everyone else just sees your comments as spin typed out word for word directly from labour central office.
If you want to dispel that myth then make a comment about the other side for once in your life and bring some kind of balance to your reporting.
Perhaps mention that the IMF believes we're the worst positioned country in the developed world, or that Sarkozy went behind Brown's back and is now talking to Blair instead because he doesn't believe that Brown has any competence/intelligence at all. Or how about the massive levels of public (and private) debt that we've racked up under labour. Or how about all the pension theft that labour have carried out. Or how about the fact that Brown point blank refuses to consider trying to save any money at all when it comes to government waste. The list is endless.
You could at least feign balance even if you don't want to add real balance; at the moment you're not even bothering to pretend that you're balanced. You might as well give up and go home and just hand the license fee money direct to the labour party.
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Anatole Kaletski articles are usually well-written. I have enjoyed reading them over the past few years.
They are also usually wrong.
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#58
Please do some research before waffling on about polls. Just because Gormless Gordy seems to have caught up with the Tories in the polls does not mean he would win an election any time soon. The truth is the Tories are still maintaining their lead somewhere at the low to mid 40s mark.
[url=http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/]UK Polling Report[/url]
Why is there never any feedback comments from comrade Nick? It seems as if the purpose of these [BBC] blogs is to gain feedback from readers about their political views; the purpose escapes me.
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78 JohnConstable
Yes - I've seen that study as well. The results were interesting.
You are right - there do seem some unfortunate parallels with this countries "economic rescue package".
Jam today.
Let's hope the problem spirit away.....
P.S. You mention how away from the cameras politicians can be nice / nasty in your post above. My mum accidently elbowed John Major in the balls (queue people saying they'd like to have done the same).......... he was very pleasant about the situation.
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Sometimes it's hard to see what's really going on for ordinary people/voters, because the figures are so huge and the statistics are so misleading.
So it's often easier to use an analogy for what labour are intending to do regarding the budget, so here's one....
Say Gordon Brown was running a small business. He has no customers and no stock. He's been running at a loss for 10 years because he doesn't know anything about business. He's been funding his losses by taking out loans from a very stupid bank. With no customer, no stock, and massive debt, he decides that he needs a new 70inch plasma tv for his office's lobby. So he takes out another loan from his stupid bank. He tells the bank "it's fine; I'll be able to pay it back because my business will grow by 50% this year". His bank doesn't bother to look at his balance sheet which would show them that his business plan is just a joke, and they agree with him that having a plasma tv for his office is a good idea, and they lend him the money.
In this analogy the plasma tv is the pending tax cut, and the stupid bank are the voters.
The loan will be called in. It's just a question of time.
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The problem is that it does not really matter now if the Tories are right. Having apparently persauded the enire planet that it can spend its way out of this crisis, the UK can hardly do a 180 degree turn and go off in the other direction and well they know it.
Brown may well have been below the belt when he accused Cameron of playing politics over the Baby P affair but he would certainly be justified on the economic U turn.
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Anyway we can argue all we like. Nick can and probably will continue to report baised garbage.
When unemployment rises to over 2.5 million by June 2009 he can then report what a wonderful job Gordon is doing, that Osborne's plans are useless and the Labour Party are "saving Britain " from the Tories..
Anyone think I am being unkind?
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92 Charles_E_Hardwidge
I agree. Backward Britain could learn something from the more forward thinking.
IMF Growth predictions for 2009:
China up 8.5 percent
Russia up 3.5 percent
Brazil up 3.0 percent
Eastern Europe Up 2.5 percent
Canada up 0.3 percent
Mexico up 0.9 percent
Japan down 0.2 percent
Euro Zone down 0.5 percent
Britain down 1.3 percent
We could try exorcising the poltergeist that is Gordon Brown, but he doesn't want to go and is spitting, fighting, lying and causing mayhem as we try and remove him.
Maybe we need a bigger crucifix and more garlic?
Alternatively we could call Yvette Fielding, Britain's answer to Ghostbusters - because Brown seems determined to stay, even if that does bankrupt us and we have to go to the IMF to bail us out.
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#92 CEH
Hello Charles
I've been a natural tory supporter for years, that is until I started to read your blogging comments. The scales have fallen from my eyes and I now realize two things:
1) The tories are maniacal serial killers who eat children and worship Satan. As well as slaughtering innocent people, they also denounce goodness and like to torture fluffy animals.
2) The labour party, on the other hand, are so perfect as to be above scrutiny. As well as creating a glorious utopia where people never die, never experience pain and live off milk and honey, they also sign autographs for God and their faeces smells of French perfume.
Thank you Charles, for all you've done for us pitiful tories. We don't deserve you and we don't deserve Labour. Seriously, we don't deserve Labour.
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After taking a position over a year ago and seeing Nick hammer the government while the Tories made hay, I think, I've got that deferred gratification thing nailed down. Now, the same people are calling bias and scrabbling as the ground opens up beneath their feet. Yeah, right.
That's Zen and the art of SMUG B#$T£RD.
Call an election. LOL.
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Nick Robinson, really! Your postings just get more and more outrageously partisan. Is this all that you can think of that is worth discussing?
Since you obviously consider third-person commentary on the views of politicians important to highlight in your role at the BBC, perhaps you could feature a similar hatch-job reviewing the many commentaries criticising Brown's mad world of crazy economics and public finance?
Perhaps you could also point out to the editor of the Politics page on the BBC's website that he/she left the quotation marks around " ... is necessary .." in relation to government borrowing. I'm sure that was a mistake, but the message of what the BBC thinks probably got across anyway.
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If every dissenting poster on this blog was to post "I agree with every word that Nick Robinson writes", and continued to do so for weeks on end I wonder how Mr Robinson would react?
I rather wonder if he posts to provoke rather than believing anything he writes.It might make CEW's job a bit harder too!
Just a thought!
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Banging on about Camerons Budget?
The way Messrs Brown Darling have run things how can an opposition prepare a budget?????
TRUTH/FICTION SEEM TO BE MERGED WITH NEW LABOUR.
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Hey, jonathon_cook (post 100), better Yvette Fielding than Yvette Cooper.
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Nick Robinson = Labour stooge.
Is it too late to get Miss Piggy in to read whatever our egregious Government (& whoever CEH really is) want you to say? At least she'd be prettier.
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With my crystal ball in hand, I hereby predict the outcome and the BBC reporting of November 24th following the pre-budget report.....
I reckon the package will be: "More help for hard working families" (ie more cash paid to those on tax credits, absolutely nothing for people who don't have children)
Some niche sections of society will get a weird benefit that they'll never be able to claim (ie like the "help for pensioners" where you have to fill in a ream of forms to get a partial loft insulation voucher but only if it's below minus 10 degrees for more than 50 consecutive days and you're over 102 years old)
All this will ultimately be financed by the private sector with hugely increased taxes a year or 2 down the line, and because no public spending has been cut anywhere we'll go bankrupt as a country because the private sector simply won't be able to fund such a massive debt/public-sector anymore without going bankrupt itself.
The general BBC reporting on this will be:
"Gordon Brown boosts the economy with much needed extra cash in everybody's pockets which will be paid for purely by subsequent growth in the economy and no tax increases will be needed."
Nick's report will be:
"Gordon Brown saved the world, and now he's saved the country from the evils of Thatcher."
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HEY THERE EVERYBODY!!
If you check out PESTONS BLOG.
You will be able to claim your free roll of
FISCAL PRUDENCE LAVATORY PAPER.
I am doing a special pack for David
Cameron & George Osbourne.
Gordon Brown isnt on the list he says
he doesnt need any . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .!!
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The upcoming Treasury statement is Labour?s opportunity to provide some deferred gratification to those at the bottom of the economically active spectrum, namely those households earning £10-18k as opposed to their counterparts in the useless Middle Class, for whom adjustments to their tax will now seem miniscule in comparison to the notional loss of equity in their home and other housing assets.
It will stimulate the economy and could be designed in such away to be revenue neutral. Therefore simultaneously protect, if not benefit the hardworking middle class. It could also incentivise the economically inactive by increasing the gap between those who are active and inactive
It?s astonishing that after 10 years of New and 1 year of Nearly Labour, social mobility and relative poverty have not changed and indeed by some measures have worsened. It is time for the ?straight ?line- thinkers? to step up, or step off, surely it is possible to both redesign the tax system to be far more progressive and fair without increasing the overall tax burden, again.
In parallel the necessary Keynesian pump priming should merely bring forward scheduled expenditure in Building Schools for the future, transport and hospital building. This does not mean that forensic examination of the spending in other departments should not be rigorously examined and projects either cancelled or deferred, especially white elephants such as ID cards and anything to do with computers, for obvious reasons. Most Keynesians believe that there should be surpluses not overdrafts in some years of the cycle.
The Conservative?s economic policy, if that?s not oxymoronic in itself, is not finding favour with either the Westminster village or the general public. I would suggest the material would be best honed and their act sharpened on the northern club circuit by Flashman and Gideon in a Ray Allen and Lord Charles? style turn, minus the monocle.
In summary a 7 point plan.
1. Increase lower threshold of tax to £10000 and Freeze upper threshold for 5 years
2. Reintroduce MIRAS for 12 months for those on whom possession orders are served.
3. Introduce income levy as in Eire 2% of salary 45k- 75k, 3% 75- 105k 5% 105k plus.
4. End 5% VAT on fuel
5. Increase VAT to 20% (anti deflationary and progressive)
6. End all tax credits
7. Introduce price controls for domestic Gas and Electricity until market operates effectively again. (Fixed with leeway of plus or minus 5% of a monthly kWh rate. Remove initially expensive unit rates.
NB no changes to tax on Share dealing!
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#101
Oh come on, there's nothing wrong with it! Put it up for goodness sake!
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I have just tried to send a valid post, but it was knocked back as per the text below.
Please explain.
Ps. It didn't contain any HTML (mistyped or otherwise).
There has been a problem...
Your comment contains some HTML that has been mistyped.
Data at the root level is invalid on line 1
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Nick -
In 1979 the French used to mock us and call Britain the sick man of Europe. When the Tories left power in 1997 we were top of the European economic league!
Do you think something good just might of happened in those 18 years to turn the country around??
You and EVERYONE at the BBC are so biased! Pathetic. I hope the next Tory goverment privatises you!!
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Dear Nick
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Please conduct yourself in a professional manner and report on the true political state of this country, without bias to ANY political party.
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The livelihoods of all of us depend on the competent, honest governance of this country.
Has the present government been competent & honest this past 11 years?
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eg. Iraq, Gold Reserves, No more Boom & Bust?
If you are being partisan it would be a deriliction of your duty.
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RE POST 101 & 111
Maybe you need corrective therapy?
Censorship no never.
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I have just split my attempted post (see 112) into separate sections (see 114 thu 117).
It wouldn't let me send them all as one post...??????
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Apologies for the typos (probably because of having to redo the posts a dozen times before getting them accepted...).
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Can we have John Sargeant back as he has now retired fom dancing please, then Nick can move full time to the labour spin machine.
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The Conservative Party have not only lost touched with the public but completely lost touch with reality. Zillionaire Cameron and his cronies have only one concern: themselves.
The only way we're going to protect our country and keep it safe for our children is to back the Prime Minister. Although it's been little reported here, Gordon Brown has received much praise for saving the world's economy with The New York Times branding him a hero.
We all have an obligation to ourselves, our neighbours, our country and our world to stand by Gordon at this difficult moment in history.
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but_he_trusted_them
It isn't censorship which is a shame for you. just don't use morethan lessthan signs or ampersands or anything that can be interpreted by the SOFTWARE as html code. if you want to use them you need to use ampersand codes. like & & lt (< less than) > (> greater than)
I think you new names are onto a winner with this BBC bias thing keep it up ;o)
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Hi I'm new and this is my first comment so please be kind.
I have sat by and read the posts almost religiously for the past few months (enjoying the debates and the slightly odd comments of certain "Zen" "philosiphers"), but today I thought enough is enough.
Since when did my licence fee money become part of the labour spin machine? I am not aligned to any party and have voted for different parties for the past 2 elections (mind your own business), but I am extremely vexed that this much bias is shown.
I am also dismayed that a proffessional journalist is prepared to write such utter gibberish without substanciated facts.
I expect more from the BBC, I expect more from my money. There's a 3 Billion pound saving in there somewhere I'm sure.
My next step is to find out where I can make an official complaint about such blatant political bias.
LFP001
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Nobody anywhere has ever or will ever describe a man who eats his bogies on televeision as a hero.
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Sorry, but really I am new and I really do want to complain.
From: email.validation bbc.co.uk
You may not know this sender.Mark as safe Mark as unsafe
Sent: 21 November 2008 00:11:23
To: DELETED
Dear LicenceFeePayer001, Just one more thing to do. To confirm your email address please visit the link below. By doing this you let us know that the email address you gave us is real and working. Please do this within 4 days of receiving this email as the link will expire.
I appreciate that I could mock this up, but I see no need. This reporting really is disgusting, it makes me very sad for democracy across the world as we are supposed to be an example (robert mugabe - are you taking notes)
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Kaletsky has been all over the place on this.
One week Brown is right, then he is wrong, the next week the Tories are right then they are wrong.
Sorry Nick, the need now is for spending restraint, precisely because Borrowing Brown hasn't balanced a budget since 2002 and had borrowed £200bn plus even before the world went pear shaped.
We are in the WORST position of any major economy, not the best and the BBC really do need to examine his record as Chancellor over 11 years before criticising the Conservatives for proposing a slowing down in the increase in borrowing to save us all a tax bombshell in future.
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122 TheHandOfHistory
I see the brain washing has been working well with you. You are even quoting lines directly from the indoctrination broadcasts.
Just to try and help unscramble your mind, if you take key phrases from your post, you can just about re-arrange them so that they make sense:
"We all have an obligation to ourselves, our neighbours, our country". "The only way we're going to protect our country and keep it safe for our children is to" [remove] "Gordon Brown".
"the Prime Minister" [has] "not only lost touch with the public but completely lost touch with reality".
"Although it's been little reported here" "Gordon Brown has" [has been irresponsibly spending like a] "Zillionaire".
"the Prime Minister" [has also] "received much" [blame for his part in crashing] "the world's economy".
"Gordon Brown" "and his cronies have only one concern:" [getting] "themselves" [elected].
"at this" "moment in history" "the public" [are] "branding him a" [a total and utter expensive failure].
If smoke starts coming out of your ears, don't worry. That is normal with brain wash patients as their senses start to make connection with the real world again.
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I really am getting truly sick of the cobblers you continue to peddle on this blog,which may I point out is paid for from my hard earned.
This blokes record of economic insight is very nearly as bad as yours so if I were Cameron I'd be really worried..........not.
Oh,hang on ,is that the phone ringing Nick,must be Mandy on the blower with the latest draft for your blog.
Awful Nicholas,once again truly awful.
Keep the red flag flying !
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Ah, the consistent Mr AK.
Here's what he said in July '08...
"at the risk of appearing naive and biased, let me suggest that some of the Tories? policies stand up to scrutiny and make a lot of sense ? Mr Cameron seems to have understood that developing policies for a complex modern society requires a synthesis of ideas from different parts of the ideological spectrum. Politics is not just a matter of inventing slogans to try to impress tabloid editors - that is the failed politics of Gordon Brown".
Mmm.. slogans like 'hard working families'.
My take is this...
Government has doubled spending in 11 years, productivity has worsened, the payroll has snowballed and there is little tangible improvement that isn't mortgaged to the hilt for our children to pay for.
Excessive borrowing caused by excessive credit atrociously regulated by Brown's 'prosperity' reforms in 1997 inflated asset prices and we are all feeling the hangover.
It will be a long, painful hangover.
Tax cuts now will be a temporary "hair of the dog", it might feel ok for a while but the hangover will come back.
Borrowing more will influence long-term interest rates (to make the debt attractive) - your mortgage will be more expensive than it should be.
Borrowing more will mean bigger tax increases later than there should be to pay them back - leaving less money in your pocket.
Borrowing more will result in a weak currency, those foreign holidays and imported goods like prestige cars and technology will only be even more unaffordable.
Just when a recovery looks like it's picking up. Tax hikes will suck the very growth out of the economy.
The economy post 2010 will be lethargic, growth stunted because Government is addicted to spending our money.
The big lie is this - cutting spending closes schools and hospitals.
Consider this, government spends £60bn on quangos, it has employed 700,000 extra non-frontline staff.
This government will continually throw money at non-jobs and pointless quangos to sustain red-tape that strangles the innovators and entrepreneurs that create the business that employ the lion share of this nation.
We have slipped from the Top 10 of competitive nations to below Top 40.
Innovators and entrepreneurs that see the business opportunity that creates growth, jobs and prosperity. Government wants to replace that with tax, spend and poor productivity.
One lesson from the last big Keynesian splurge is this - Governments don't pick winners.
British Leyland?
British Steel?
British Rail?
ICL?
GPO?
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BBC Pledge Watch
"Politicians love announcing new initiatives. In this series we pluck a pledge from the archives. And see what happened next..."
Well we saw an investigation into politicians pledges on Laptops and Vicars on the 3rd and 11th November.
Pledge watch seems to have gone quiet seeing as everyone is asking them to investigate the "boom and bust" pledge.
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Both Nick and Kaletskey would do well to refresh their understanding of GroupThink. It is highly dangerous.
Also - apart from being a sweetener to the electorate to try to secure a Labour victory in the coming election - the "fiscal stimulus" seems to be based on the premise that it will kick start the economy.
The reality is that it will probably enliven Christmas spending with a massive hangover coming in the New Year when the credit card bill start to land on the mat and job losses begin to hit home. What happens then? Isn't it at least possible that we'll be in a spiral of ever bigger borrowing, large tax increases and an ever more sluggish economy.
The Conservatives may not be popular when they point out the dangers of Labour's actions. They would be totally irresponsible if they did not do so.
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#125
You are of course absolutely correct, Gordon Brown is a nose picking Aspidistra.
Have you noticed that any foreign leader shaking hands with Gordon whipes their hand on the seat of their pants after the event.
I wonder if Gordon will go to the Sarkozy conference in early January, can't wait for the conversation between Goron and Tony.
Will he be the first to photographed with Obama, the future of the Globe rests on this. Who will be the most upset. The first leader must either be Mexican or Canadian, bets please, as long as it is not Britain, I mean it is our soldiers who are doing most of the dying in Afghanistan.
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Nick, will you be looking into the allegation that Balls lied to the house. He has claimed he was prevented from distributing the baby P report to opposition MP's by the information commisioner. A statement that the information commisioner has publicly denied.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/6mnvbe
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#130
Given the Government's spending pattern since 2000 at least, do you think that we would always have ended up in this position - regardless of the credit crunch?
I'm trying to recall when a boom didn't turn into a bust. We've had stormy waters before:
Tulip bulb craze - 1630s
South Sea Bubble - 1720s
Great Crash - 1929
Tronics boom/Go-go era - 1960s
Japan Real Estate bubble - 1989
Bio Tech - 1980s
Internet bubble - 1999
Consumer-explosion-fed-by-Government-tolerated-weak-enforcement-of-financial-markets-regulation-bubble 2005 onwards
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Regulation and tax is always an issue but the biggest challenge is leadership. No amount of "red tape" cutting or tax cuts will magic that one out of thin air.
Success = Ability + Opportunity.
Management and the wealthy always seem to scoot through without being touched. That's not why I'm making a big deal of it: the reasoning is wholly practical. Success depends on bringing people on and spreading wealth to the margins. It's a cycle, like rain, and if you neglect it the economy just shrivels and dies.
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I was trawling through google on "government debt" and came across this article in the Spectator at the time of the Labour party conference. It's a bit long but well worth the read.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/2088001/the-great-debt-deceit-how-gordon-brown-cooked-the-nations-books.thtml
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Does anyone else think a negative interest rate is the best way to kick start the economy?
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#122 TheHandofHistory
The Conservative Party have not only lost touched with the public but completely lost touch with reality. Zillionaire Cameron and his cronies have only one concern: themselves.
The only way we're going to protect our country and keep it safe for our children is to back the Prime Minister. Although it's been little reported here, Gordon Brown has received much praise for saving the world's economy with The New York Times branding him a hero.
We all have an obligation to ourselves, our neighbours, our country and our world to stand by Gordon at this difficult moment in history.
...what complete and utter tosh..!
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sagamix @81 wrote:
"Could somebody please enlighten me as to how Kaletsky got his reputation as an Economic Guru?
yes I can
it's because he's got a very serious "chess master" sounding name"
Brilliant!
(I suppose his real name is Andy Micklewhite and he was born south east London)
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No one could seriously doubt that Nick has a strong bias towards the Labour Party. However this is his blog, so he can write what he likes, just as we can choose whether or not to read or comment upon it.
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Nick,
we are being misled.
This is not a Budget, it is a pre-Budget report. Not the same.
If it is a budget then it is a crisis budget to 'solve' the problem of the Downturn, which is not a Downturn but which is a recession, was there a Great Downturn rather than a Great Depression, or was it really the Great Recession, words Nick, words, try explaining that to the person who has just lost their job and home.
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#137 skynine
Amid global financial turmoil, and on the eve of Labour?s conference, Fraser Nelson and Peter Hoskin reveal the true extent of the nation?s debt ? equivalent to £26,100 for each British household ? and Brown?s scandalous manipulation of the Private Finance Initiative
This was a very informative read.
Nick - If Fraser Nelson and Peter Hoskin could report this back in September, why are we still being kept in the dark?
If the figure quoted per household of £26,000 is nearer the mark than the £2000 reported by the BBC - there needs to be a complete shake-up and job re-shuffle at Television Centre!
Chickens....home....roost...!
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#136.
You just don't get it.
Success is not a social experiment.
Wealth is not conjured from thin air, it is an aggregation of income invested for a return.
If high tax and onerous regulation limit profit making possibilities, what is there to re-invest?
Consider a new business, set-up costs are usually fairly high, if regulation places more onus on higher set-up costs, the payback on the investment is longer.
If tax takes the early profit margins away and makes a return on that investment smaller and take longer to achieve payback, where is the motive?
Remember, nearly all new business enterprises are seeded with third-party capital.
Motive + Opportunity + Knowledge = Success
Leadership has nothing to do with it. The greatest innovators and entrepreneurs historically have thrived where the regulatory touch is light and taxation is not punitive.
The most fertile ground of recent history has been the internet.
Leadership is determined by market share and market reward. In other words, success determines leadership.
Those two chaps at Google do not have MBAs, neither were they born or trained leaders. They hold science qualifications. They were simply innovators & entrepreneurs allowed to go to market.
Social consideration didn't come into it.
Business is and should always be, the greatest meritocracy in the world.
Governments are not.
Our economy is based on SMEs, they employ 48% of the workforce and generate over 60% of GDP.
Tax and regulation is inevitable, the trick though is not too little, not too much.
As margins are squeezed now, taxes and regulation are taking what is needed to employ staff and re-invest profits (or limit losses).
We have too much.
It will only make the inevitable unemployment worse.
And that is a social disaster.
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Once again you dont like the message - so instead of attacking the messenger - you attack Nick Robinson.
Bizarre!
The author of the original article Nick refers to is known for the erratic nature of his predictions.The core message however about Tory unease of Osbourne in paticular,which is now pointing much more to Cameron,is not just being reflected in the Times,as mentioned the Telegraph,the Observor,the Independent and the Expree have in the last week carried similar articles.
I ocassionally,when prompted, look at some of the political party's own blogs and the shift in opinion on conservativehome these past few weeks has been quite staggering.
There is open and it appears concerted pressure not juts for Osborne to be moved-that seems as inevitable as night follows day,but for a challenge to Cameron too - it seems the Tory right,never pro Cameron are flexing their muscles chomping at the bit for a fight - as the policies and messages eminating from the Tory Front bench become more muddled by the day - one guy even wants Vince Cable to transfer to the Tory whip to get them out of the mess Osborne has got them into.
This is the bigger picture - so rather than attack the people who report it - may I suggest those with an interest or a leaning towards Tory values and policies get back to base and help them come up with a co-ordinated and logical policy - christ knows some of the right wind comments and opinions onhere are far better thought out and explained than by any official Tory spokesman - and whether I agree with them or not thay are at least LOGICAL if sometimes misguided - official Tory Party thinking just gets more and more muddled!
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Hey Nick is that you at 122
Very naughty!
:-)
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But Dudley, don't you agree that lately Nick has a clear hunger for trying to discredit Cameron's policies but then will not bring Brown to book?
Sure it's his blog and we don't have to read it, but since you, me and everyone with a telly funds such views, I think it should be more balanced. People expect unbiased reports from the BBC because at the end of the day it could hold sway with many swing voters.
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Given the focus of my comment it was good enough for what I intended it to be. What readers make of it is something else.
Google's "success" is, mostly, down to having a 1% edge in a growth market that rewarded the leader with 90% of the attention.
Start up costs and capital investment is, mostly, a choice. Plenty of multi-million pound turnover companies started from a bedroom.
The "invest in loss" philosophy is an active trickle down of skill and wealth or, rather, bottom up development.
Leadership comes from within, not whether you have a set of the latest tennis whites and daddy's membership card.
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#145
In the interests of balance... on LabourHome.
Of Gordon Brown...
"I genuinely dislike him"
"Brown's answers missed the mood of the nation"
on the economy....
"we do have an obscene amount of grossly wasteful spending."
"I don't like Gordon, I don't trust Gordon and I do not believe that Alastair Darling is the Chancellor either."
"Gordon appears to be trying to emulate Callghan and Healey through his policies.. "
The rest of LabourHome is all about Socialist this, Socialist that....
So looks like the Left is gearing up for a fight to.
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magic - 2010
Nick.
Have te BBC have been promised extra funding if they tow the Labour line?
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101 peaselaker
Atleast one of you have got the message, now as a new convert it is up to you to go out and spread the message and thanks for letting us know what a clever fellow you are.
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89 Virtualsilverlady
#When taxes do have to rise where will GB get them from.
The unemployed?
The unemployed self-employed
The pensioner saver?
Bust businesses?
Private pension funds?
There might just be a problem when there aren't enough people left in work or business to pay them.
He'll just have to turn to the over inflated public sector then.
But I forgot. Doesn't the taxpayer have to pay for them too.
Well I guess he'll have to do what Thatcher and the Tories did in the eighties and nineties and sell all the countries assetts, Oh! he cant do that the Tories have already done that haven't they.
I am quite sure that Gordon Brown will have the answer so dont you worry Lady.
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#56
"Cameron has liked to compare himself with Obama but this is only skin deep"
It does not even go that far Charles! :)
Nothing at all in common!
Bill
P.S. jonatahan_cook and johnconstable should get married and unite as 1. Or are they already the same person having a conversation with himself on here??? I think we should be told........
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83 Sicilian.
#For goodness sake the Conservatives aren't even in office. They bear no responsibilty for our present position. Anyone would think that they were the guilty ones!
You miss the point Sicilian there is no blame to apportion, the problem is a global one.
The Tories are guilty by their failure to support the government or to come up with a viable alternative, they have done niether they have nothing to say, so they lie low and say nothing hoping that the diehards like yourself will defend them. and now your leaving the Tory sinking ship, man the lifeboats!.
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#67 Jonno_79
It is quite depressing but in my opinion normal. I just suspect that a family who is suffering under the Brown administration is not going to directly link these problems with politics. The UK population are not stupid or ignorant, they just have much bigger things to worry about. The media will help shape their decision which will help Brown.
Add to that a deep underlying mistrust of the word Tory and what it may have stood for and I think the Cons are struggling. People say Brown has an image problem ,which he does! However I also think that Cammy has an equally bad image to shake off.
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53 itwasntmeguv
it starts right there^ you write all this almost incoherent rubbish which even if someone wanted to take you seriously which I cant imagine who, but you never know, and you complety destroy any point your trying to make whatever that might be with you really absurd childish name calling. Nip back into your kindergarten and play with your little friends there's a good little lad.
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#152
I am quite sure that Gordon Brown will have the answer so dont you worry Lady.
Oh, he'll have an answer all right. The same answer he came out with when his housing bubble crashed underneath him. It'll be a failure of Thatcherism.
Dutifully reported around the world by the BBC). Again.
The BBC has been reduced to the status of the Sunday Sport. World War II Bomber Found Crashed on the Moon.
Do you know how the Sport gets away with such garbage? Because somebody phones them up and claims he's found a bomber on the moon. Then the reporter 'reports' that as news.
Same with the BBC. Mandelson rings them up on the morning the banks get bailed out and tells the BBC 'It's a failure of Thatcherism' and instead of the editor telling him 'Get lost, it's that muppet Gordon Brown's fault' he dutifully reports 'Failure of Thatcherism'.
Is there any possibility we'll ever be able to hail a success of Brownism? It's just that after eleven years it would be nice if his only 'success' wasn't to successfully absolve himself of any responsibility for the UK's present economic catastrophe.
He's not Gordon Brown - He's O.J. Brown. Look, the glove doesn't fit. It wasnae me!!!
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141 sandbmwman
The only problem is that Nick writes for the supposedly impartial BBC. We pay our licence fee for balanced, neutral, reporting.
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Nick,
I think that you are just being ironic, because you surely cannot be serious.
I am surprised that you don't put the smilies on your comments. Please tell me you, who I regard as being just that little bit more intelligent than Peston, don't believe what you are being spun.
As for Peston why is he no longer coming on the radio, and TV, telling us that he has a scoop. Doesn't the BBC get anymore scoops, which cause chaos in the market place.
I look forward to PMQs on Wednesday, any deaths yet this week.
It has been reported that Prince William is going to the Caribean with some Special Forces, why no injunction. Will he have to sign a confidentailty agreement, and of course the media will not be able to report anything, because if they mention just one word, then should I apply to the High Court for an injunction preventing any disclosure.
Just like the injunction that prevents a member of my family from speaking in public about his being lied to, and apparently joining the army for American foreign policy, not to defend Queen and Country.
When will the news come out about our final withdrawal from Iraq and our defeat in Afghanistan.
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I love the way newlabour are now trying to get th narrative going that the global crash and Gordon Brown's credit bubble is actually a failure of Thatcherism.
This is clearly the line the whole party has been spoon fed by Alistair Campbell and Peter Mandelson ... "we're going to say the big mistake was to promise to keep to tory sepnding plans...and this is all the failure of the Thatcher/Reagan experiment"
Same tired old lines trotted out by Ken Livingstone last night on the politics show, so unrehearsed he had trouble making his way throught the argument.
So...let's have a think...what came rigth before Thatcherism and Reagan... oh yes; the IMF, the winter of discontent and rampant inflation....let's go back to that it's a much better idea.
Call an election. The muppets are running the country.
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154. At 12:03pm on 21 Nov 2008, grandantidote wrote:
You miss the point Sicilian there is no blame to apportion, the problem is a global one.
Now thats very funny.
No blame here
Nu Labour are fantastic, I couldnt possibly give any other party a go.
No waste, no squander
Debt is all manageable
PFIs are a great deal for the pubic
Public sector spending is all very sensible
Public sector pay is fair and reasonable
Public sector pensions are about right in terms of the liability that we now face
Government IT contracts were not a waste of money
The Olympics were well costed and forgetting about the Vat was not a problem
Private sector pensions needed to be taxed to bring about equality
GPs deserve 250k a year
Hospitals offer superb value for money
State education is a bargain with no child left behind
My government is now whiter than white. Sleaze what sleaze?
Bringing back Peter Mandleson was a fine idea
Crime rate is good and offenders are dealt with properly.
We need national chip week.
Quangos are cool.
Are you blogging from another dimension in the time space continuum or simply bonkers?
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Nick, you're a national disgrace.
Do your job: holding all politicians - including those of HM Govt - to account rather than acting as Campbelson's PR man.
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At 09:22 I submitted a comment #132. This is still awaiting moderation as of 12:52. There is nothing contensious within that post other than the fact there is a link to a well known site which has previously been linked to from this site. Is this an attempt to kick the subject into the long grass, as by the time it has been moderated it will be so far up the thread no one will read it? If this is so I will repost in a more current timeslot on this blog.
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138. JewsNunkie wrote:
Does anyone else think a negative interest rate is the best way to kick start the economy?
mmm.... Ill give it a go, what you lending and what rate are you paying.
Oh never mind Ill take the lot.
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Nick,
can I give you a headline from the International Herald tribune from the 11th November and it is this 'An election that left the South Behind' which goes into the fact that Obama 'the South has moved from being the center of the political universe to being an outside player in presidential politics'. Swap general election for presidential and we may be seeing Gordon's new strategy.
Now, if Gordon can win without the South of England and Westcountry voting for him, then politically, the South is finished, money and largess can be spread around the Northern voters and labour will stay in power. No more Tory boom and bust, just labour boom and bust.
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Nick,
"European governments will announce public backing for their national mortgage and banking systems ? similar to the action already taken by Gordon Brown to guarantee the deposits in the entire British banking system"
"The credit crisis will have to be resolved by the end of February, if not by the markets, then by governments and central banks. "
A Kaletsky. Jan 2008. "Goodbye to all that: the worst is over for the global credit crunch"
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3182286.ece
Do your homework.
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You miss the point Sicilian there is no blame to apportion, the problem is a global one.
For that to be true, we (in the UK) would not have set ourselves up for the biggest housing crash in UK history. Would we?
And that was only possible because Gordon Brown introduced a system that failed to consider house price bubbles. Despite being so aware of the recession that can spring from their bursting that he undertook (in the 1997 manifesto) to do away housing bubbles. And boom and bust for good measure.
Worse, he actively interfered with the BoE in 2004/2005 when the bubble flagged for a few months. He influenced them to cut rates and re-inflate his bubble to deliver the 2005 election. Eddie George has said so. With the result that we got another two years of reckless borrowing and lending.
Reckless UK consumer borrowing, reckless bank lending and reckless government lending.
It's only a 'global problem' in the sense that our government in the UK adopted the same reckless policies of deficit spending, low interest rates and encouraging an insane housing bubble for temporary political gain as the Americans. Now the US economy has gone 'pop' and so has ours. But ours would have gone 'pop' regardless of the yanks unless it is your contention that we could simply have borrowed ever more non-existent money, remortgaged our perpetually increasingly over-priced houses indefinitely and nothing could possibly go wrong.
Just because he made the same policy mistakes as the Americans doesn't magically absolve Brown from making them. He's supposed to be a grown-up. He's supposed to be prudent. He doesn't have to have a war in Iraq just because the Americans do. He doesn't have to borrow 3% of GDP every year just because the Americans do.
Paradoxically he'd have got a lot more kudos if he hadn't supported the Iraq war. He'd have a lot more kudos if we were now sitting there with wads of cash in reserve, our houses reasonably priced and our banks solvent.
Sure, when the yanks have a recession like they're going to have we'd still all be in trouble but we'd be the ones with all the cash. We'd be the 'sovereign wealth funds' that would be buying up the yanks assets for next to nothing.
But no. He had to squander all that money he didn't have when he should have been saving. He had to preside over the biggest housing bubble in UK history. Just so that he could strut about and kid everybody that all that feel-good borrowing was not a time-bomb but just further evidence of his genius.
And when the bubble went up? He's back-peddling like you wouldn't believe and blaming it on Thatcher. The yanks. The banks. Nothing to do with me.
They made me do it. Anyway it wasn't me. I'm a world statesman me. Look over there.
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Nick,
surely with petrol now down to under 90p per litre then the tax on petrol must rise.
Also, breaking news on Asbestos, now this is a good decision, employers are liable from the date of exposure, not the date that the employee showed the signs of any cancer.
It would appear that the judges have quite rightly, in my view stated, that as you insured the employees then you would not have taken out that insurance unless it was known that there could be a problem.
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Is Nick Robinson Alistair Campbell in disguise?
Why don't you ask Gordon Brown how he feels to be an unelected PM? Why don't you demand he answers the question whenever you ask him one?
Call an election, and lets kick this government out
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Many must be confused at the way Gordon Brown is portrayed in the media all of a sudden.
Could it be a con to get us to part with our money by going along with all this borrowing.
Gordon Brown needs the VAT
The media needs the advertising revenue
Businesses need to offload loads of stock before Christmas
The more astute among us have already sussed this one out and will be keeping a tight rein on spending regardless.
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grandantidote @ 152
Well I guess he'll have to do what Thatcher and the Tories did in the eighties and nineties and sell all the countries assetts, Oh! he cant do that the Tories have already done that haven't they.
I am quite sure that Gordon Brown will have the answer so dont you worry Lady.
------------
Like selling 415 tons of our gold reserves at the lowest price for over 20 years no doubt, losing US an estimated £2bn, that's Gordon's kind of answer.
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160#Robin
AKA Kermit
Lets be honest there's no shortage of Muppets on this blog, largely claiming that every country in the world is simultaneously suffering from the global financial crisis EXCEPT the UK where we are suffering from a National Financial Crisis personaly orchestrated by Gordon Brown.
Lets all bark at the moon!!!
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Those who criticised my post need to try and get passed the delusion that the Tories will suddenly come up with some magic solution to solve this crisis.
The current economic problems started in the USA and to blame Gordon Brown - a man of great moral conviction - is just plain wrong.
Unless you yourselves are quadzillionairres, I can tell you now that however bad it is at the moment, it would only get worse under a Cameron government. Fortuanately, opinion polls show most people doing the decent thing and getting behind Gordon. We are blessed to have someone like Gordon Brown running our country at this time - even if some are too deluded to realise it.
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I think the moral of this thread is that there are as many different viewpoints and offered solutions as to what action should be taken to alleviate The Credit Crisis as there are different experts both here and in the outside world. Depressing really!
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Thanks for giving us another piece of NuLab popoganda Nick. All together now -
Baa Baa Baa Baa Baa Baa Baa Baa
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
Get Cambellson off your back and do some objective reporting for a change.
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JewsNunkie #139
Is negative interest like negative money? If you have negative money and I steal (only kidding) your wallet then I owe you the value of the money you didn't have!
So on this basis the bank will give me interest on money I haven't saved.
Does Mr Bean know of this NuLab World saving technique? And if not will Nick tell him?
And if he does? Arise............
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Nick and all readers -- suggest you read this comment from Jeff Randell.
Say's it all !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/3492611/When-money-is-tight-people-spend-less.-Are-you-listening-Mr-Darling.html
Brown & NuLabour must go before they destroy the UK !
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I am not saying David Cameron is right but .... As we haven't really "fixed" the problems that caused the crisis the fiscal stimulus MAY temporarily soften the recession but MAY not. The people who are saying the recession will last 1-2 years are the same people who DIDN'T see the problems coming. So maybe it will go on longer.
So to cut a long argument short if the recession does go on and consumer confidence remains shaky the UK may not be able to afford a big stimulus in the not so distant future. So if it had been costed it would have been better.
Maybe we should have kept our powder dry until we were certain that there would be a positive outcome.
To be fair though if we can afford the stimulus it can't do any harm. I am just not that sure with PFI and all that that we aren't building a government debt mountain.
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167 U9461192
Spot on.
You couldn't make it any clearer.
Anyone clinging to the "it is a global problem" line therefore must be one of the following:
- Lobotomised
- Brainwashed
- Belligerent
To quote Sherlock Holmes on this matter:
"When you have eliminated the impossible,
whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."
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@164
The idea is that you savers invest your money into cash ISAs and such like with a tax-free interest rate of about negative 10%
This instantly provides the banks with a rich source of liquid assets and helps with debt relief and mortgage problems faced by the general public.
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#27
I feel that your interpretation of this has been severely curtailed by your lack of knowledge on the subject, at least find some sources next time you say something so controversial.
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Nick,
just heard the news that Gordon Brown is angry that the banks have been doing something in America which has contributed to the downturn, that is the recession.
Well I know that this gets to him and his advisers so hear this Gordon. I am angry, I am angry about what you and Tony Blair did when you got us into the Iraq War and Occupation. I am angry that our troops have died, and I am very angry about injunctions which have prevented my son from speaking in public about something which the public must know about. Not about operations but about what it feels like to go off to a foreign country and possibly kill people on lies for American foreign policy.
I am angry with you because the War was and is illegal, well that's what I think anyway, but then I am not an expert on the BBC Audience Panel am I.
I am just so very angry with you because you hold your position because of a coup, that nobody has voted for you and because you Gordon lack any moral or democratic mandate. You make me just so angry, and you failed to hold an election which would have possibly given you that authority. You are, to put it mildly, a disgrace to the office which you hold. You really are.
I am most angry that you don't really care, you previouly read out the names of the dead in Iraq and Afghanistan, and then you stop. Well what are you going to do on Wednesday. I'll tell you what! you tell the MoD to drop the injunction against my son, and stop them harassing him for the MoD legal expenses. What harm can he be to you, telling the truth as he sees it, or are you gutless as well spineless you disgrace, you total absolute national disgrace.
What have you got to fear from Freedom of Speech, you might have learnt something if you had people who listened and learnt rather than silence the innocent, the brave courageous innocents. You might even have learnt what the banks were doing whilst you were funding your boom, where do you think the profits came from you complete idiot.
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TheHandOfHistory. Delusional rhetoric in the current environment. Just what is Gordon's 'moral conviction'?
If the 'problem' started in the US, please lay out clearly what you believe the problem to be.
I look forward to the answer. Bullat point is fine.
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"We are blessed to have someone like Gordon Brown running our country at this time - even if some are too deluded to realise it."
Thanks for the chuckle!
Any more baiting you'd like to do?
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grandantidote @ 152
Ref......Well I guess he'll have to do what Thatcher and the Tories did in the eighties and nineties and sell all the countries assetts.
I was just wondering.... how exactly do you value a massive loss making business, with idle staff that spend most of their time on strike that require constant tax payer subsidy.
Any idea?
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For goodness sake the bias of this article is breathtaking, did it come straight from Mandy's mouth or did you paraphrase?
Get your act together 'toenails' before you disappear altogether or are you standing on Peston's head?
Dont suppose this will survive the censorship but it felt good to get it off my chest anyway
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Nick / Toenails
After you more biased blogs - when you get a severe and overwhelming negative reaction - I've noticed you disappear for an uncharacteristically long time.
Why is this? Is it a flounce? Or do you think your journalistic efforts are wasted on us?
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#158 novice_boy
Yeah - I agree, but reporting is reporting and blogs are blogs. They're meant to be opinion aren't they? If I'm wrong then I agree with you completely!
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#47
Gobble-de-gook and lies
In fact, I am slightly offended by your comment, if only because I think that there are parts of history we don't want to go through again, like the soviet union for example.
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173. TheHandOfHistory
I think most of us have the hang of this global issue now, thanks for that.
Whats your take on the other issues surrounding you beloved leader, every thing OK is it?
See 161 for a few pointers.
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#173 Handof History
What's moral conviction got to do with it? It's his ability to run an economy that matters.
I don't believe he's a moral person anyway. He's a politician for God's sake. Tax bribes before elections ring any bells?
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#173
Those who criticised my post need to try and get passed the delusion that the Tories will suddenly come up with some magic solution to solve this crisis.
The current economic problems started in the USA and to blame Gordon Brown - a man of great moral conviction - is just plain wrong.
Unless you yourselves are quadzillionairres, I can tell you now that however bad it is at the moment, it would only get worse under a Cameron government. Fortuanately, opinion polls show most people doing the decent thing and getting behind Gordon. We are blessed to have someone like Gordon Brown running our country at this time - even if some are too deluded to realise it.
I agree - the current problems did start in the USA - IN 2005!
BUT, if your beloved Gordon had done his job properly, instead of sitting back and raking in all the taxes from the mortgages that should never have been given out, we may all be a damn sight better off than we are now.
Power means everything to Gordon and he because he put all his efforts into prizing Tony out of No. 10, he didn't see what was right in front of his eyes. That IS entirely his fault - he was Chancellor then and he should have made provisions. The end result is that we, and our children, will all be paying for this for years to come.
Nothing you can say will convince me that this is all the fault of the yanks.
A man of moral conviction? Don't make me laugh!
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A planned strike by meat hygiene inspectors will "seriously disrupt" the supply of turkey and other meat in the run-up to Christmas, Unison has warned.
The inspectors - who are government employees based across the UK - have voted for the 72-hour walkout in a row about work patterns and overtime.
Winter of discontent anyone!
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Democracy doesnt work. Much like communism. And Fascism. Anarchy's a bit rubbish too.
lets try a Technocracy. just for fun it'll be a change from what normally happens but it could work. can't be as big a mistake as capitalism.
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NON job of the week:
Remember you go to work each day to earn a living upon which the government tax you to fund this:
Specialist Stop Smoking Advisor (Prison)
County Durham PCT
Specialist Stop Smoking Advisor (Prisons)
Permanent
Part Time (18.75 Hours)
Base- Doctor Piper House Darlington, but to work across Durham Prisons
Band 6 (£24,103 - £32,653)
(Job Ref 727-67)
Closing Date- 20/11/2008
County Durham & Darlington PCTs Public Health Directorate is responsible for the health improvement and reduction of health inequalities of the population within its geographical boundaries. The Stop Smoking Service is a key element within the public health's tobacco control delivery plan to reduce health inequalities.
The post holder will work as part of a team of specialist advisors that contributes to the work of County Durham and Darlington NHS Stop Smoking Service in meeting annual targets for smoking cessation. The post holder will work across the four prisons/young offenders institutions of County Durham, and make links with the two young peoples units Hassackfields and Newton Aycliffe.
The post holder must have a first degree or equivalent in Nursing, Health, Education, Psychology, Addiction or related areas. Experience of working as a Smoking Cessation Advisor/Counsellor and trained to intermediate level Stop Smoking Advisor. Have Counselling skills/ability to influence and motivate others in behaviour changes. Experience in facilitating training or undertaking training in delivery of presentations.
Mean while an abused child is waiting for a social worker to be assigned ( and the salary band is the same)
Hey Ho.
Time for change. Eh?
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Challenging the Budget?
Great Nick, I look forward to that - when are you going to start challenging this Government on any given topic?
You seem to be nothing more than a parody of a journalist these dyas - you are far too cosy with the New labour machine.
Must be all those cosy dinners at the Atrium, eh Nick?
We are waitng for you & the BBC to actually do your jobs where this Government is concerned........it is what we pay an inordinate amount of money to the BBC for per year to do, under threat of prison if we refuse.
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Good job we've got Gordon Brown; a 'serious man for serious times' in his own words.
Seriousness, however, is the last refuge of the shallow.
Anyone on these posts put off by the frenzied bullying of newlabour apologists should take heart that on Monday it will be revealed just how deeply in debt we are. Then the delusion that we are the best prepared for this global downturn will be replaced by the reality that we are deeply in debt thanks to Gordon Brown's boom built on credit.
Call an election.
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185#
Carrotts
As opposed to people who spend all day blogging you mean?
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Nick,
Is it true, did I hear that Gordon claimed that he has ended boom and bust? Oh me, oh my, he must have missed something there methinks. Perhaps he is not infallible after all. We may even have to consider the possibility that our current situation is in part his fault. Can you bear such a thought?
All the best
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re: 188 sandbmwman
The distinction between Nick's reporting and Nick's blog is irrelevant - they are both things that he's paid to do by the BBC, they are therefore part of his official duties.
The BBC's statutory role is to be free from political bias, yet Nick displays distinct political bias in his commentary.* That would appear to put him (and by definition the BBC) in clear and unequivocal breach of its charter.
* anyone in genuine disagreement with this is welcome to compile an authenticated list of Nick's blog articles to show where he has given the Conservatives a kicking and where he has given Labour a kicking. I thnk the latter part will be very short
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Great news for the Dear Leader and all the newlabour apologists.
Gordon Brown has a narrative at last; it's number 10,646 in the Amazpon list of best sellers.
The catchy title - 'Wartime Courage: stories of extraordinary courage by ordinary people in World War II' could be a reason behind the book's runaway success.
193 copies sold in its first two weeks. A blowout.
For heaven's sake call an election before we have anymore of his potboilers.
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Just heard the news on the radio. Brown has gone into "wasnae me spin overdrive".
The general gist of his ramblings:
"I'm really angry with AMERICAN banks. For causing this GLOBAL problem. This is the biggest problem facing Britain since 1945"
This grand standing must annoy the Americans as much as it does us. Brown can't own up to his share in causing the crisis.
George Bush has got one last change to undertake a final regime change before he leaves office. All it would take is a bogey-seeking-cruise missile and the US could take out Brown in one easy strike.
Also laughable is Brown's attempt to cast himself in a Churchillian light again. Have no fear Gordon:
We will fight you on the beaches, we will fight you on tax grounds, we will fight you in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight you in the hills
We shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our expatriates beyond the seas, armed and guarded by common sense, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to rescue us from your age of irresponsibility."
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Why is this nugget of economic incompetence being reported?
As the government is going to force bank's to lend, perhaps it should consider why it refused to lend on this case?
NR being the government's own bank.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3491836/Another-3bn-at-risk-in-Northern-Rock.html
Hypocrisy?
And another £3bn into the black hole.
And looks like the 'great deal' we got buying this bank means it probably won't be sold until 2015, it's value is pretty much indeterminable.
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Well, it's quite clear that the majority of the people posting on this blog are desk Tories.
I couldn't be bothered to read some of the comments responding to what I said as they were too long and full of the usual recycled rubbish that's posted on here day in, day out. Nevrtheless, to the Tory who asked what Gordon's done for this country, there's a list below I copied and pasted from the Labour website.
1. Longest period of sustained low inflation since the 60s
2. Low mortgage rates
3. Introduced the National Minimum Wage and raised it to £5.35
4. Record police numbers in England, Scotland and Wales
5. Cut overall crime by 35 per cent
6. Record levels of literacy and numeracy in schools
7. Best-ever primary school results
8. Funding for every pupil in England to double by 2008
9. Employment is at its highest level ever
10. Written off up to 100 per cent of debt owed by poorest countries
11. 85,000 more nurses
12. 32,000 more doctors
13. Brought back matrons to hospital wards
14. Devolved power to the Scottish Parliament
15. Devolved power to Welsh Assembly
16. Dads now get paternity leave of 2 weeks for the first time
17. NHS Direct offering free convenient patient advice
18. Gift aid was worth £625 million to charities last year
19. Restored city-wide government to London
20. Record number of students in higher education
21. Child benefit up 25 per cent since 1997
22. Created Sure Start to help children from low income households
23. Introduced the Disability Rights Commission
24. £200 winter fuel payment to pensioners & extra £100 for over-80s
25. On course to exceed Kyoto target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2010
26. Negotiated the historic Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland
27. Over 30,000 more teachers in England schools
28. All workers now have a right to 4 weeks? paid holiday
29. A million pensioners lifted out of relative poverty
30. 800,000 children lifted out of relative poverty
31. Introduced child tax credit giving more money to parents
32. Scrapped Section 28 and introduced Civil Partnerships
33. Brought over 1 million social homes up to standard
34. Free school milk for five, six and seven-year-olds in Wales
35. Banned fox hunting
36. Cleanest rivers, beaches, drinking water and air since the industrial revolution
37. Free TV licences for over-75s
38. Banned fur farming and the testing of cosmetics on animals
39. Waiting times for operations halved
40. Free local bus travel for over-60s
41. New Deal - helped over a million people into work
42. Over 1.5 million child trust funds have been started
43. Free eye test for over 60s
44. Five, six and seven year olds in class sizes of 30 or less
45. Free entry to national museums and galleries
46. Overseas aid budget more than doubled
47. Cancer death rates down by 12 per cent, saving 43,000 lives
48. Cut long-term youth unemployment by 75 per cent
49. Free nursery places for three and four-year-olds in England, Scotland and Wales
50. Free fruit for all four to six-year-olds at school
I've got to go now. No doubt you'll all be here tomorrow lambasting Labour and rooting for Cameron and his cronies. Have fun.
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197 RobinJD
Don't get your hopes up on Monday. Brown won't reveal the true debt figures. This article explains why.
Brown's debt deceit
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It is time that we got rid of the T.V. licence fee and found some other way of fund
ing this government-spun oracle.ie. the BBC. Perhaps Gordon Brown, who behaves more like a lottery winner each day rather than the financially challenged PM he really is, would like to bail out this British institution which daily insults its licence payers. I am fed up paying for the political bias and partiality shown by yourselves in your reporting but I do wish to view other programmes. We have state-controlled banks and state-controlled media, surely a socialist heaven.
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#203 PheatonFlanFlinger
Speaking about getting the banks to lend notice how the BBC have spun this story on its site at the moment:
Headline: Darling 'to force banks to lend'
Sounds very authorative, no? What a hero. They have even put in a big authorative photo of Mr Darling in there as well.
Blurb underneath: Chancellor Alistair Darling is reportedly planning to force banks to lend.
Notice the word planning tucked in there.
Inside report, first paragraph: The government says it has not ruled out forcing banks.
So they aren't forcing the banks after all.
How transparent can you get?!
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#204
LOL
Where do you start with that?!
It's like going though the writings of Speer to catalogue the achievements of National Socialism.
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198. Eatonrifle
Be fair I didnt take this poorly paid job in Carrot Marketing in order to actually do anything.
All I have to do today is choose the winner of the 2008 Prepared Fresh Produce of the Year award.
Its a tough one. better get back.
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204. TheHandOfHistory wrote
50 more
Right back at ya.........
1. Competitiveness. Britain has dropped from fourth to thirteenth in the international competitiveness league under Labour.
2. Reading and Writing. Almost half of all 11 year-olds cannot read, write and add up properly when they leave primary school.
3. GCSEs. Nearly 23,000 children left school last year without a single GCSE.
4. NHS Deficits. The NHS in England is this year forecasting a gross deficit of £883 million.
5. Waiting Lists. Almost one million people in the UK are still waiting for treatment on the NHS.
6. Threat to Staff Numbers. Since February 2006, over 18,000 job losses have been announced by NHS Trusts in England
7. Growth Rate. Britain?s growth rate in 2005 was 1.9 per cent, the lowest for 13 years.
8. Inheritance Tax. The number of households paying inheritance tax has doubled under Labour.
9. Carbon Emissions Rising. Carbon emissions have risen for the second year in a row - emissions have risen for five of the past eight years.
10. Violent crime has more than doubled under Labour - over 1.2 million violent crimes were committed in 2005-6.
11. Gun crime has doubled under Labour.
12. Robbery has gone up by 47 per cent under Labour
13. Unemployment. There are 957,000 people out of work and claiming benefit, the highest level since 2001.
14. Child Support Agency. The backlog of cases at the CSA amounts to over 273,600 and £3.5 billion of debt remains uncollected.
15. Business Tax. The CBI estimates British businesses have been hit by a massive £50 billion increase in tax under Labour.
16. Stamp Duty. Under Labour revenue from stamp duty has quadrupled to over £10 billion.
17. Government debt has soared under Labour - it now equals 36.6 per cent of GDP, a seven-year high.
18. Council Tax. Typical pensioner couples have seen more than a third of the increase in the basic state pension snatched back in higher council tax.
19. Tax credits. Of the 6.5 million recipients - 2 million have been overpaid and over 900,000 are underpaid.
20. The Pension Credit is so complicated and unpopular that up to 1.6 million pensioners are not claiming the Pension Credit they are entitled to.
21. Manufacturing jobs. Since the second quarter of 1997, over 1.1 million manufacturing jobs have been lost.
22. Administrators in the NHS. The number of NHS managers is increasing three times as fast as the number of new doctors and nurses.
23. Child poverty. Over half of children in inner London live below the poverty line.
24. Benefit Take-up. Between 23 and 30 per cent of eligible people are not claiming the benefits that they are entitled to.
25. Young People. Over 1.2 million young people are not in work or full-time education - higher than when Labour came to power.
26. Pensioner Poverty. Two million pensioners still live in poverty.
27. Rising unemployment. Unemployment now stands at over 1.6 million and is at its highest level since January 2000.
28. Economic Inactivity. In a survey of 23 countries surveyed by the OECD, the UK had the highest percentage of economically inactive men between 25 and 49.
29. Incapacity Benefits. 2.7 million people of working age are claiming incapacity benefits.
30. Rise in Long-Term Benefit Claims. The number of people receiving incapacity benefit for five years or more is now twenty times as large as it was when Labour came to power.
31. Benefit Fraud. At least £2.6 billion of taxpayers? money disappeared in 2004-05 in benefit fraud and error.
32. Underpaid benefits. £243 million in income support, Jobseeker?s Allowance and Pension Credit was underpaid in 2004-5.
33. Pensions Tax. Labour?s pensions tax introduced by Gordon Brown in 1997 has cost pension funds £5 billion a year.
34. Savings. The Turner Commission estimates that over 9 million people are not saving enough for retirement.
35. School results for low-income families. Three-quarters of 16-year-olds from low-income families in England and Wales failed to get five 'good' passes at grades A to C, which was double the rate for other students.
36. Savings. The household savings ratio has almost halved under Labour to 6 per cent.
37. Temporary Accommodation. The number of households in England living in temporary accommodation has risen by 139 per cent since 1997.
38. Failing Schools. Nearly a million children (980,000) are estimated to be at poorly performing schools, according to the National Audit Office - 13 per cent of the school population.
39. Truancy. Over a million children play truant every year.
40. Assaults. There is an assault on a teacher every seven minutes, according to teacher unions.
2
41. Home Office Bureaucrats. The Home Office has taken on 20,700 more bureaucrats ? but only around 14,200 additional police officers since 1997
42. Asylum Removals. Only one in four failed asylum seekers is ever removed ? a lower proportion than in 1997.
43. Special Schools. More than 100 state special schools have closed since Labour came to power.
44. Qualifications. Over one third of adults in the UK do not have any basic school-leaving qualification - double the proportion in Canada and Germany.
45. Waiting Times. Almost 45,000 people are currently waiting over one year for basic diagnostic tests, such as MRI and CT scans, and hearing tests.
46. Hospitals - Slower Improvements. 1.4 million more people would be getting hospital treatment if Labour had kept up the rate of increase in completed hospital treatments achieved by the NHS under the Conservatives
47. Dentists. 10,000 dentists have left the NHS since Labour came to power.
48. MRSA. The number of people who have died from the hospital superbug MRSA has more than doubled since 1997, despite Labour?s 23 ?initiatives? to tackle the problem
49. Productivity in the NHS has fallen by up to 1.3 per cent in each year since 1997 despite record increases in spending.
50. Productivity. Under Labour, Britain?s productivity-per-worker growth rate slowed from 2.6 per cent a year in 1992-7 to just 1.2 per cent a year in 2001-5.
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I do wish tory central office would leave this blog alone, or at least make their minds up when the doomsayers are saying Brown's wrong, they're always bob on, but heaven forbid any of them should say that Dave's wrong because then they're all stupid and they've never got anything right, and Nick's biased anyway, I don't pay my licence fee to hear....etc.
The same names every day retreading the same tired arguments.
The IMF is a useless institution that's done nothing but make financial crisises worse the world over pretty much since it's inception, yet it's a lifebuoy for all Davie Cameron's boot boys on here.
The fact is both courses carry risks, we either try this now or do as the conservatives are suggesting and sit back and let the recession sink the economy before Dave and Georgie try and ride to the rescue in 18 months or so. Cameron wouldn't throw away an election if he were in power so why does he expect Brown to do so? and what if Brown doesn't take action now and Cameron and Osborne turn out to have been wrong, will the Tories call an election immediately following a failure? thought not.
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87 Charles_E_Hardwidge: ?Procrastination is pretty well documented but the 'Brown Plan' of getting people to focus on creative business, a fair society, and expanding the economic sweetspot of long-term capital growth will help reverse that. Getting through that change is never easy and not everyone will agree but the choice is between embracing that or lurching back to the whiskey bottle.?
So which ?Brown Plan? would this be? The ?no more boom and bust? one we?ve been suffering under for the last 11 years? Or is this some new plan? (Presumably one where tractor production is permanently sky high, never mind that there are no farmers left, no fields to plough, and no crops to raise.)
There?s no visible change apart from his openness. Poor Prudence was always a myth, sadly, but now Brown has publicly divorced her and is fervently embracing reckless profligacy and actively encouraging debt. This is what he?s been doing all along, just never admitting it. I can?t help feeling this the most honest he?s been with us in all the years he?s been running the country?s finances!
The IMF are probably already pencilling in his appointment for when he has to go cap-in-hand for another Labour bailout.
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There was no way a labour government could have introduced credit controls in advance of the current crisis, even if it had been predicted. Nanny state! Marxism! That would have been the outcry.
The whole point about a free market is to let individuals make their own choices. If the banks had conducted their business in a more professional manner we would still have some sort of free market but they've bailed out leaving the government to carry the can.
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TheHandOfHistory, who are you addressing? Me? You will note that I asked what the 'problem' originating in the US was. The problem is leverage, be it for banks, households or Governments, and the UK very exposed to the effects of living beyond one's means.
Appreciate the complete lack of answering the question though!
P.S., in a fit of youthful rebellion, I did vote Labour in '97. This site is not, as far as I can tell, composed of high Tories but rather, people that have not disengaged the brain and digested fake statistics for a fake, debt fuelled decade with complaint. Rather, it is people who believe (i) in debate based around fact, not spin; and (ii) are angry about the situation that this country finds itself in.
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Re 204
Nice to know there are still some people around who believe in fairy stories.
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161 carrots needquangoes
#Hospitals offer superb value for money
I really dont have the time to get involved again in all this cynicism its all been discussed many times before. I have to go shortly to visit my wife who is in hospital at this moment in time, so in the few moments I have to spare I will discuss hospitals.
My wife first went to our GP complaining of a sever pain in her knee four and a half months ago it was Xrayed and it was found that she had severe arthritis and she would have to see a specialist, within three months she saw a specialist and was told she would need a knee replacment. five weeks later she was in hospital one day later the knee was replaced with the very latest type of replacement joint,
She is in a modern hospital built by labour the equipment in this hospital is beyond reproach the place is spotless the staff are kind and scrupulously clean. and the food as my wife says is better than she has had in many so called good eating places, she could not possibly be better looked after, as she and I say we both had operations almost at the same time thirteen years ago and the difference is unbelievable, and this is not bupa this NHS and the service she has had from start to finish has been superb. so does that answer at least one of your points.
Cheerio I have to go now.
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#168 -
Employers Liability Insurance has been compulsory for many years - employers do not 'elect to have it because they knew there were problems'
Also: Many claims are being admitted for political purposes. At the time that the insurance was in force employers did not know that asbestos was dangerous, so it is unfair that they be held liable - it is the deep pocket syndrome.
1. Longest period of sustained low inflation since the 60s
And for 200 years before the 1920s there was no inflation at all!
2. Low mortgage rates - prducing unsustainable rises in the price of houses and unaffordability - also the abiluity to release 'equity' has directly led to the credit crunch
3. Introduced the National Minimum Wage and raised it to ?5.35 - great for competing with China in the current recession
4. Record police numbers in England, Scotland and Wales - yes - booking drivers, filling in forms, scared to change the plug on a kettle
5. Cut overall crime by 35 per cent - but substantially increasing violent crime (the word you missed out is 'reported' - many people do not have faith in the 'record numbers of police' as they can't solve said crimes.
6. Record levels of literacy and numeracy in schools - - not exactly - see current report regarding problems of ability of boys. Did you know that psychologists testing children have had to REDUCE the complexity of the tests by 20% to get a fresh standardised score?
7. Best-ever primary school results (see 6)
8. Funding for every pupil in England to double by 2008 - from what basis - funding has quadrupled since 1990
9. Employment is at its highest level ever (yes mainly part time and silly non-producing jobs and health and safety etc)
10. Written off up to 100 per cent of debt owed by poorest countries - a GREAT idea - we now seem to be short of some cash ourselves
11. 85,000 more nurses - good
12. 32,000 more doctors - good - but what about the 250,000 extra admin staff to administer them - NHS - lower level of productivity than the Tories
13. Brought back matrons to hospital wards - suggested by Tories
14. Devolved power to the Scottish Parliament - a big mistake - Labour thought this would guarantee control of Scotland in perpetuity based on their support in Glasgow - only it has blown up in thir faces.
15. Devolved power to Welsh Assembly - see 15 - but change Glasgow with Cardiff and ex mining villages
16. Dads now get paternity leave of 2 weeks for the first time - and as a small business I have to pay the costs, not to mention the disruption it causes.
17. NHS Direct offering free convenient patient advice - but no treatment over the phone.
18. Gift aid was worth ?625 million to charities last year - and will be reduced by 10% due to change in income tax rates. As gift aid is a function of payments to charities by the public I fail to see how the governemnt can claim any credit.
19. Restored city-wide government to London - and there is now a Tory Mayor - don't know why this is an achievement, it is just a fact.
20. Record number of students in higher education - most of whom can't spell for toffee, are doing stupid courses - many universities have had to dumb-down or extend courses to cope with these students.
21. Child benefit up 25 per cent since 1997 - yes and inflation is higher - so Labour have reduced the benefit in real terms
22. Created Sure Start to help children from low income households - this could work - but it is not yet universal and the teachers really could do with some 1st class instruction on pre-school development
23. Introduced the Disability Rights Commission - some help - but usually just adds costs to business
24. ?200 winter fuel payment to pensioners & extra ?100 for over-80s - but only during a pre-election year.
25. On course to exceed Kyoto target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. Good but UK not a significant polluter in global terms
26. Negotiated the historic Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland - most negotiation happened before the 1997 election and if you think the agreement was a success ask the Protestant population of Northern Ireland
27. Over 30,000 more teachers in England schools - Good
28. All workers now have a right to 4 weeks? paid holiday - good for the workers - remember that employers have to cover this by charging more for their products
29. A million pensioners lifted out of relative poverty - and 2 million back down into it.
30. 800,000 children lifted out of relative poverty - current reports state that more children than ever are entering poverty
31. Introduced child tax credit giving more money to parents - - a complicated way of doing it.
32. Scrapped Section 28 and introduced Civil Partnerships - doesn't affect me
33. Brought over 1 million social homes up to standard - good
34. Free school milk for five, six and seven-year-olds in Wales - I live in England - why haven't we got this in the UK. OH it's labour subsidising it's heartlands
35. Banned fox hunting - and it took the PArliament Act to do it!
36. Cleanest rivers, beaches, drinking water and air since the industrial revolution - all set in motion by the Tories
37. Free TV licences for over-75s - good - but not free for the under 75s who have to subsidise it
38. Banned fur farming and the testing of cosmetics on animals. Emotional politics.
39. Waiting times for operations halved - waiting list to go on the waiting list increased.
40. Free local bus travel for over-60s - not free - has to be paid for by the taxpayer.
41. New Deal - helped over a million people into work - and straight back out of it.
42. Over 1.5 million child trust funds have been started - - no benefit as yet - the people most likely to benefit are middle and upper class.
43. Free eye test for over 60s - again free at point of delivery but the taxpayer pays for it.
44. Five, six and seven year olds in class sizes of 30 or less - good
45. Free entry to national museums and galleries - good BUT salaries and maintenance still has to be paid - i.e the taxpayer pays for it in general.
46. Overseas aid budget more than doubled - charity begins at home
47. Cancer death rates down by 12 per cent, saving 43,000 lives - due mainly to improvements in medicine.
48. Cut long-term youth unemployment by 75 per cent - yes by sticking the youths off to University (see above) and causing them to leave with massive debts due to removal of grants.
49. Free nursery places for three and four-year-olds in England, Scotland and Wales - can be good
50. Free fruit for all four to six-year-olds at school - I approve.
So there are a very few unqualified successes in your claims.
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billmcfadden @ 153
I can assure you that one marriage is more than enough and I am not related in any way to blogger jonathon_cook.
I do often have conversations with myself though but not on these forums.
I see that one of the genuine masters, Jamie Whyte (author Bad Thoughts: a Guide to Clear Thinking) has dropped a few pearls for us swine in todays Times.
If only the politicians could just grab a few of the ideas that come from the likes of Jamie, we'd soon see a big improvement in the quality of Government.
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"I'm really angry with AMERICAN banks. For causing this GLOBAL problem. This is the biggest problem facing Britain since 1945"
Staggering, bare-faced lies.
When will he fess up to the fact that he personally presided over the biggest borrowing binge in UK history. He, personally, doubled national debt.
He sat there and watched house prices increase by 200% and did nothing. Said not a dicky-bird. Unless he was basking in the artificial feel-good factor of all this magic housing 'wealth'.
He's got 5-a-day co-ordinators up the ying yang. They won't let fat parents adopt kids. You can't smoke in a pub.
But on the problem of reckless borrowing. What has/had this government to say?
Nope, nothing at all to say about that. Presumably, to Gordon Brown, this was an entirely natural state of affairs.
This is my miracle economy. It is right and natural that a man of my towering intellect would preside over a trebling of house prices, a doubling of national debt and the most indebted population in the known universe. Father of the nation me. Prudent, upstanding, prudent and errr a man of conviction. And prudent.
It is normal and right and will last forever for I, Gordon Brown, have decreed it to be so!!
I have considered all possibilities and there is nothing that could possibly go wrong with doubling national debt, trebling mortgage debt and having the lowest household saving rates household.
Those who say otherwise are simply mental pygmies who fail to understand what I can achieve with the power of my collosal mind. I can defy gravity. I can suspend all economic reason. My economic miracle is unstoppable!!!
Oh dear.
Looks like we all let Gordon down. It turns out that we were all irresponsible. The people who paid those stupidly inflated prices for their houses. The banks who lent them the money and the financial kamikaze jocks that invented the weird instruments that allowed them to conjure so much money out of fresh air. They were all irresponsible.
But I'll tell you who was the most irresponsible of the lot. The Americans. the very ones who stopped the madness. They really let Gordon down.
Why, if they'd only kept passing pieces of bog roll around as collateral for hundreds of billions of loans then we'd never have had a crash. The economic miracle would still be going full pelt. Northern Rock could right now be sitting on several more tens of billions of worthless loans and GDP would still be rising. Just like it's been doing for the last decade.
If the Americans hadn't been so irresponsible then my house could have gone up in value four times by now. I could have had another holiday and a new car and really helped out the economy. If it wasn't for those Americans no longer accepting their own pieces of paper as anything other than worthless.
But I am not down-hearted. Come the hour cometh the man. I am the man to lead us out of this Thatcher-inspired American global recession that had nothing at all to do with me and I could not possibly have seen it coming. I have a cunning plan.
I am going to print money.
And I'm going to force the banks to lend you more money too. And you'll never have to pay it back because I'm going to put interest rates to zero. And if you need any more money I'll just print up some more.
Don't know why nobody thought of it sooner really. To think, all those chancellors and PMs before me and I'm the first one to hit on such an obvious plan. After all, money is just paper. I'll just print us all richer.
To facilitate this he even had Robinson 'plant' a story about deflation being a worry. Oooooooh, we wouldn't want deflation would we? Ooooooh. We'd better watch out for big, bad deflation. Ooooooh, we'd better make sure there's enough money out there.
If this economic beserker is not stopped, and soon, this is only going to end one way. The total meltdown of the currency.
I suspect it's already too late. Gordon Brown isn't even going to give us the 'tough choice' ie we can pay this all back and it'll hurt for a few years or I can just print us up another two or three years of cash but we'll be utterly stuffed by then. The currency will be worthless. We'll be back to a barter economy and people will be changing religion just to get a bowl of rice or a cup of soup.
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204 HandOfHistroy
Mmmm... yes......... given tax has doubled under Labour, it is a pathetic list - and full of holes isn't it?
1. Longest period of sustained low inflation since the 60s - and then the biggest crash since the 1930's
2. Low mortgage rates - yes irresponsible lending has been rife and caused the bubble which in part caused the global crash
3. Introduced the National Minimum Wage and raised it to ?5.35 - don't worry - the unscrupulous employers who exploit people no longer pay cash in hand below this level.
4. Record police numbers in England, Scotland and Wales - record form filling and inefficiency. Many people not full PC's. Thus overall no major increase in time coppers are on the beat making towns safe.
5. Cut overall crime by 35 per cent - bodged up the crime figures. Got the number of serious crimes (that people worry about) wrong.
6. Record levels of literacy and numeracy in schools - OK.
7. Best-ever primary school results - no claim for secondary schools where dumbing down has been rife. Teachers in both primary and secondary complain about SATs - kids being taught to pass the government measures and not 'educated'
8. Funding for every pupil in England to double by 2008 - it is easy to tax and then spray cash around. That in itself is not an achievement.
9. Employment is at its highest level ever - except the number of people "on the sick" has massively increased under Labour, and broadly equates to the number of people Labour claim to have got back into work.
10. Written off up to 100 per cent of debt owed by poorest countries - very good - but at the same time massivelt ramped up the UK's debt and it is still increasing
11. 85,000 more nurses - good. But money is wasted on bureaucrats, PFI and quangos and doesn't make it to the front line.
12. 32,000 more doctors - see above.
13. Brought back matrons to hospital wards - good. But lost control of hygene and MRSA and CDiff made a hospital stay very dangerousl
14. Devolved power to the Scottish Parliament - OK - but left massive constitutional issues across the UK. Scottish parliament massively over budget.
15. Devolved power to Welsh Assembly - see above.
16. Dads now get paternity leave of 2 weeks for the first time - OK - but Labour still forget about the pressures of all this legislation on small businesses.
17. NHS Direct offering free convenient patient advice - good.
18. Gift aid was worth ?625 million to charities last year - good.
19. Restored city-wide government to London - good. But together with other parliaments and a huge increase in government workers, the state has become bloated and is a millstone around the economies neck.
20. Record number of students in higher education - good. Just think how bad unemployment figures would look if they weren't in uni ;-)
21. Child benefit up 25 per cent since 1997 - good
22. Created Sure Start to help children from low income households - don't really know what this is I'm afraid....
23. Introduced the Disability Rights Commission - sounds OK.
24. ?200 winter fuel payment to pensioners & extra ?100 for over-80s - oh yes - the 79p pension increase insult to pensioners who can barely afford to live. Plus there is such a complex system of tax credits, OAP's are often too confused or too proud to collect what they are entitled to.
25. On course to exceed Kyoto target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2010 - and dithered and bottled the decision to ensure we have stability of electricity generation. In a few years time this dithering will cause an UK energy crisis.
26. Negotiated the historic Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland - good.
27. Over 30,000 more teachers in England schools - good. Still once again PFI, bureaucrats and consultants swallow up vast sums of money which should be spent on the front line.
28. All workers now have a right to 4 weeks? paid holiday - good. More pressure on small businesses though.
29. A million pensioners lifted out of relative poverty - yes - but see above.
30. 800,000 children lifted out of relative poverty - good. But you can be the econoic crash (of which Gordon is partly to blame) will shove 1'00s of children back below the poverty line.
31. Introduced child tax credit giving more money to parents - OK - but we have an increasingly complex tax credit system which is a nightmare.
32. Scrapped Section 28 and introduced Civil Partnerships - good
33. Brought over 1 million social homes up to standard - but poured fuel on the housing market to create a false boom and thus housing is largely unaffordable for low earners and first time buyers.
34. Free school milk for five, six and seven-year-olds in Wales - good.
35. Banned fox hunting - good - but spent more time debating fox hunting in parliament than was used before starting the Iraq war.
36. Cleanest rivers, beaches, drinking water and air since the industrial revolution - good.
37. Free TV licences for over-75s - good.
38. Banned fur farming and the testing of cosmetics on animals - good.
39. Waiting times for operations halved - but we haven't really seen value for money considering the countless billions pumped into the NHS.
40. Free local bus travel for over-60s - good.
41. New Deal - helped over a million people into work - no it didn't - a growing economy would have created the jobs any way without an expensive bit of show piece twaddle.
42. Over 1.5 million child trust funds have been started - good - but why should government chose how we spend and invest our money? Too much central nanny control from this government.
43. Free eye test for over 60s - good.
44. Five, six and seven year olds in class sizes of 30 or less - given the squillions spent I should hope so.
45. Free entry to national museums and galleries - good.
46. Overseas aid budget more than doubled - war started in Iraq wrecking our reputation across the world and especially in the middle east. Totally trashed Iraq and spent a lot of money fighting wars that could have been used to aide other troubled countries instead of funding an illegal war.
47. Cancer death rates down by 12 per cent, saving 43,000 lives - probably inevitable anyway given advances in science.
48. Cut long-term youth unemployment by 75 per cent - and then wrecked it all with an economic crash. Plus other reasons discussed that mean unemployment stats are not all they are cracked up to be.
49. Free nursery places for three and four-year-olds in England, Scotland and Wales - good.
50. Free fruit for all four to six-year-olds at school - good. Given spending by this government has been vast, I can see why this boast is at the bottom of the list.
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Perhaps Mr Robinson shoud be aware that Anatole Kaletsky's musings since the credit crunch came about have had a very consistent record of being drivel. He said the stimulus in America earlier in the year which was over £60 billion would do the trick nicely and gloried in being the only economist who didn't thnk America would have a recession. He is nothing more than an armchair economist of the worst kind.
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I am always amused by the implication that the BBC is biased against one political party or another. It crops up on every thread and does make me laugh.
I think it's important that those of you here who clearly want an election with a Tory victory really examine the policies proposed. So well done Nick for introducing these topics.
For me it's the balance between fiscal stimulus (spending now to lessen job losses, business failures etc) and paying for it when the business cycle swings upwards. I have never believed that boom and bust was gone forever -it was a daft thing to say.
or
Live within our means now and accept that 3-4 million will be unemployed as we did in the early 80's, (with 26% inflation, 15% mortgage rates) a lot of small firms will go bust (but better than borrowing eh?) and wait to pay to get people back into work when the upturn comes taking the penny or 2p per pound tax cut along the way (for those of us that still have a job that is)
You make your cross in the box and choose.
However, the level of borrowing is not yet back to the level this current government inherited in 97 (and this was at an all time low for the previous Tory administrations) -so we still have a bit of a way to go to reach the borrowing levels of the Thatcher years so I'm sure we will be fine -as a lot of contributors look back on this as the golden age.
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Sometimes, something stops you dead in your tracks and you think ... jeez this is bad.
I'd heard some mutterings on the web about something called the Baltic Index and shipping but it was only yesterday when I saw some photos of huge numbers of containers and their associated ships stuck off Singapore that fully understood just how bad this is going to get.
I am very thankful that it is politicians and their advisers that are going to have to lay the groundwork for sorting out this world economic crisis.
The magnitude of the task is stupendous.
Frankly, if I was a Minister in the Government today and fully understood the severity of the situation, then I'd probably be on the edge of a nervous breakdown or at least desparately trying to appear calm in public.
Maybe we ought to just let them get on with it rather than continually carping and sniping from our armchairs because we'll be able to deliver our verdict (vote) at some point up to May 2010.
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Nobel Laureate Phelps might provide support for Cameron, as he wrote that Keynes had no sure cure for slumps in Nov 4's FT:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/00a01b2e-aa87-11dd-897c-000077b07658,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F00a01b2e-aa87-11dd-897c-000077b07658.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fsearch.ft.com%2Fsearch%3Fpage%3D2%26queryText%3Dphelps
And so might Ben Bernanke who said that for the drop of money to work, finanical balance sheets should be solid to start off with (comment towards end of his Fed speech).
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
Balance sheets are clearly not solid in the UK, where the household savings rate is around zero, personal indebtedness is very high and 25% of business loans is owed by companies whose operating profit is not sufficient to serve loan obligations, all according to the Bank of England's financial stability report.
Thatcher was proved right taking on all these economists by the way. And all the economists supporting fiscal stimulus now were not really warning us prior to the bust, were they?
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The fact is both courses carry risks, we either try this now or do as the conservatives are suggesting and sit back and let the recession sink the economy
There is no amount of money you can spend that won't make this worse. That's it.
We are in a recession because we, ie everybody; the government, the banks, the voters have borrowed too much money and now we must pause for breath and pay it back.
That's it. It's not rocket science.
before Dave and Georgie try and ride to the rescue in 18 months or so.
Just how much money do you think it would take to 'buy' a temporary postponement of this recession? 2% of GDP? 10% of GDP? For what? So that Labour can rack up another 50bn quid of debt and postpone the inevitable for another six months? How many times are you going to pull that stunt?
How much more will we owe by voting day 2010 if Gordon devotes all his energies to avoiding technical recession? Will the economy really be any better off as a result of all that cynical squandering?
Cameron wouldn't throw away an election if he were in power so why does he expect Brown to do so?
By that token you could argue that the Tories threw it away in 1992. All they had to do was keep borrowing money and spend, spend, spend. Buy the electorate - just like Gordon since 2001. Look where that got us. And it is that fact that scares the pants off me.
Gordon Brown has already demonstrated that he has no qualms at all about borrowing truly mind-boggling sums for electoral advantage. But they will pale into insignificance to how much he'll have to borrow to defer this recession. And we're not hearing anything about how he plans to pay it all back or when. Or with what since sterling will be worthless.
All we're hearing is flak about 'the Tories doing nothing'. Even when he announces his double-or-bust strategy next week I'm confident there will, at best, nebulous references to 'prudent'... 'pay back when the time is right'... blah blah.
Ie no plans at all. Just get that borrowed money out there. Same as he's been doing since 2001. Not a care in the world for how it will ever be paid back.
Utter, utter lunacy.
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Ref #204
Delete the ones which were enacted by the governments/assemblies of Scotland, Wales and NI.
Now delete the ones which were not cost effective.
Now delete the ones which just didn't work.
Oops - where have they all gone?
And I used to believe the rhetoric also once upon a time!
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211 Chad Sexington
Labour liked the IMF last time they bankrupt the country and went to them cap in hand.
Let's hope Gordon's crash doesn't mean we need to use them again.
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#217
maon, moan, moan.
Can't believe you even had a go at being on target for Koyoto summit. You got to be even handed for people to take you seriously.
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Nick,
I see that the rail companies are coming to the aid of the government in respect of the problems of deflation. They are putting up their prices by more than the rate of inflation.
As travel costs constitute a certain percentage of the CPI and RPI there will be higher than expected inflation if the price of rail travel went up by, or below the rate of inflation. QED no problem with deflation! can't wait for other government inspired inflation, a pen costs more for the government than it does for you or me. Crazy but true.
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#222
For me it's the balance between fiscal stimulus (spending now to lessen job losses, business failures etc) and paying for it when the business cycle swings upwards.
If you say so. How much will you be spending. How long will this recession last and when do you think we'll start paying all this borrowed money back?
Actually forget the last two for now. How much will you be spending? The total national debt at the moment is over 600bn quid. What will it be in 2010 as a result of these policies?
What will unemployment be in 2010 thanks to the mitigating effects of all this extra borrowed money? Will it be significantly less than 3 million?
You seem to be labouring under the illusion that you'll be able to avoid three million unemployed with a mere couple of hundred billion of additional national debt.
I fear not.
Give us some figures that we can hold Brown to and I'll be more amenable to listening. At the moment we still have the usual 'prudent', 'right thing to do' waffle.
HOW MUCH!
And how will we know if it worked? How many will be unemployed in 2010 if we squander this money today?
I think we both know what we'll hear are promises of massive benefit for very little reward. I think we also know that what we'll end up with as with every budget projection from Brown since 1997 is a massive overspend and massive unemployment any way.
It's a tough one to accept but those two million magic jobs we conjured out of fresh air in finance are not all going to be there in 2010. They only made sense when we were borrowing massive amounts of money that didn't previously exist. Now that the borrowing doesn't exist(because the money was never really there in the first place) we won't be needing all those extra people to push car loans, home loans, personal loans, consolidation loans, credit cards, store cards etc etc.
That's just the way it is. It's hard for the people involved just like it was tough on the miners but that job just isn't there any more. And throwing money at it to keep people in an unproductive, unnecessary job is what gave us the 1970's. Which is what gave us Margaret Thatcher that so many seem to loathe so much.
In your heart you know it to be true.
The sooner we get those people out of their unnecessary jobs the sooner they'll be looking for new, hopefully more productive ones.
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#222 Paulbeers
You set out the two 'options' very lucidly. However your analysis has two lacunae:
1) The govt debt is way higher than the laughable 37% of GDP once the PFI liabilities, Northern Rock, B&B, HBOS are added. Don't forget that the government has more or less taken on the liabilities of around 60% of the banking sector. We also had the first budget deficit in October for 14 years this year and the chancellor has borrowed £37m in the last 7 months whereas he predicted he would borrow £43 over the entire 12 months. This is hardly an auspicious way to enter a recession.
2) A fiscal stimulus, whilst it sounds like a panacea, will send the pound tumbling and interest rates up. This is because we have next to zero fiscal spare capacity due to having grossly overspent and wasted tax revenues. The higher interest rates will engulf any gains in economic activity due to the fiscal stimulus and send the pound tumbling further. A run on sterling will be very serious. Other countries have lots of fiscal spare capacity due to having saved a proportion of their tax intake and not spent too much. Their currencies will therefore not suffer much from a loosening of fiscal policy. You say that we could stimulate the economy now and pay for it when the economy picks up but what makes you think it will any time soon. If the pound drops, inflation will rise due to higher import prices, companies costs' rise so margins are squeezed and interest rates rise. Hardly a recepe for recovery.
I know the media are now portraying this as the choice you mention above but in reality there is no choice. We cannot do anything due to having no fiscal spare capacity and having racked up too much debt. 3-4 million unemployed is inevitable (6-7 million if you count benefit claimants) whatever you do in fact more borrowing now causing a run on the pound will almost certainly be more deleterious to jobs than tightening fiscal policy.
We have to pay back the debt sometime. Putting it off for a rainy day is just going to mean that down the line we will be in the same position but with a worse deficit and the pain will be even greater. Labour might be positioning themselves as the saviour of the working man through this and saying that the Tories will do nothing to reduce unemployment but in reality this is all spin. They got us into this by overspending and there is no way out. We just have to take the pain.
Have a good weekend.
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If you dont have the money dont spend its as simple as that.
I am not a conservative but I agree with David Cameron, cut backs are needed like all of labours ridiculous tax wasting ideas, the stupid amount of managers in the nhs, the business model of the nhs which is only there to provide more jobs not provide an effective business model.
Regulator for regulators to regulate other regulators, all set up at the expense of the tax payer, the government letting the handout society continue to live off our tax money.
The right cut backs and making the tax money stretch further will help, stop privatising everything with value it just makes it more expensive for the tax payer.
Make Health insurance a document required before entering the UK.
Put a cap on MP expenses £10k for example.
stop paying parents to stay at home.
Eventually we are going to get stung which ever way it happens its going to happen. The fact of the matter Labour have lied too many times for us trust them over this situation and shifty Gorden Brown will do anything to cheat his way into keeping his job, tax cuts are not for the benefit fo the country they are for the benefit of getting the votes. Hence why they are postponing making parents once their children turn 12 go on Job seekers because they will lose their votes even though it will be good for the UK.
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228 My-Pet-Dragon
Well - the problem is much of the list of "achievements" is spurious twaddle.
OK - so hitting Kyoto targets is good........
.......but seeing as we outsource so much of our manufacturing to coal fuelled China, and then sail our recycling waste to India for sorting - in which countries is the UK's carbon footprint located?
Is hitting our Kyoto targets a genuine achievement to reduce the UK's impact on the environment or just some puff for politicians to brag about?
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Bit odd.
Was looking at the to-and-froing on Nick's blog. Decided to go back to main pages.
Driven by interest at the reporting of Brown's comments about "the US banks doing things we didn't know about".
There was absolutely nothing I could find about Brown's ignorance of the problems brewed on Wall Street.
It wasn't his job to know.
It was the job of the FSA - which he created, when he tore down the preceeding regulatory bodies. But, as big Treasury Honcho, he should have kept an eye on what on earth they were doing.
Strangest thing was that I couldn't find a link to Nick's blog... But Peston has popped up on the "Politics" site.
Has Nick got the chop?
That would make the Brand/Ross hit seem like genuine slow-mo...
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You need to be fired for this article. I am sick of my licence fee going on your anti-tory rants. Now, you can't even write it yourself, but just regurgitate someone else's anti-tory rants. Goodbye BBC
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A nice summary from BBC front page...
"London's Evening Standard reports that Mr Brown is said to be "seriously considering" a 4 June date, to coincide with the local and European elections.
But the prime minister told BBC Radio 2's Jeremy Vine show: "My undivided attention is on the economy, I'm not thinking about anything else, it's 100% of my attention and you can just discount all these stories."
I did get things wrong, obviously, of course Politicians make mistakes and I've got to be honest, we have made mistakes
He added he was "not thinking about anything related to internal politics".
Just hard to know whether to laugh or cry.
For goodness sake OUR PM is not "thinking about anything related to internal policies"...
What on earth do we pay him for?
To look after policies withinj the UK.
Once he's sorted out everything needed here, I'm sure we would all be very pleased if he wandered off to fix the evils in Africa, Asia, Wall Street, etc.
Meantime, I'd have liked him to accept that HIS Treasury and financial services oversight of OUR economy had been his responsibility for 11 years.
No wonder we are in such a mess.
The bloke keeps blaming nasty US banks for creating fictional money.
But he was responsible for ensuring that UK banks did not buy that garbage and claim to be solvent.
Where has he been for the last decade?
Wish he hadn't been here.
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Nick,
this is getting absolutely ridiculous.
Below is what I said in comment #142we are being misled.
'This is not a Budget, it is a pre-Budget report. Not the same.
If it is a budget then it is a crisis budget to 'solve' the problem of the Downturn, which is not a Downturn but which is a recession, was there a Great Downturn rather than a Great Depression, or was it really the Great Recession, words Nick, words, try explaining that to the person who has just lost their job and home'.
Now then I was listening to the six o'clock news on Radio 4 and guess what the headline was, more details are coming out of the Pre Budget Report on Monday, insomuch that Darling will announce changes to, well everything actually by the sounds of it.
Yet again Project Griffin strikes at the heart of government. All everybody has to do is to read your Blog and the comments. Simple really.
In the meantime I hear that wonderful Gordon is denying a June election, well let's just say that the general election will be in the Spring, just like our soldiers were to be home by christmas, only nobody ever said which christmas.
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#234
I noticed that the link to Nick's blog has disappeared from the main news/politics page.
I wondered if he had decided to simplify things and work directly for the Government spin machine rather than via the BBC ?
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Nick, with you cosy public sector pension to look forward to it is no wonder you support this Goverment , the reality is future generations will be paying for this mess for a very long time, do you not have any shame when you read this blog or are you too embarressed to read it?
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204
THe Hand odf History
You omitted to add to the end of your report..
"and now we have spent all this money, and failed to manage the economy, we are all stuffed, well most of us anyway. Not GB not all those MP's with fat salaries and impregnable pensions....
In the world of reality
The Govt has maxed out on its credit cards and wants to borrow even more. Madness, utter madness.
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#236
"My undivided attention is on the economy, I'm not thinking about anything else, it's 100% of my attention and you can just discount all these stories."
Thank you for your quote from Gordon Brown, the great leader.
What I would say is that Gordon is, I believe, totally incapable of thinking about anything else, we would like you to be capable of thinking about more than one thing at a time, only we know that you can't.
That became obvious when asked questions by David Cameron about Baby P, it is why you are totally incapable of resolving the issues of Iraq and Afghanistan. We want you to be be a leader Gordon, not to be led. That's your problem, you're actually quite stupid!
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If, after this explanation, you still don't get it - well - you have no excuses:
"No point in having an economy if you can't explain it to the eight year old who will one day have to pay for it all.
Once upon a time an old witch called Thatcher was given a balloon. She knew what it was, and - to the disgust and disagreement of almost everyone watching - stuck a piece of tape over the chosen spot before blithely inserting a sharpened finger nail and letting the balloon down slowly. The people watching didn't enjoy the balloon deflating, but they were glad later on when the hole could be fixed and the balloon used again. Perhaps she wasn't such a witch after all.
Some years later, along came a clown who thought he was a magician. Gordon told the children he was much cleverer than the old witch had been - and blew and blew and blew into the balloon, to the delight of all of those watching. "I've performed a magic trick" he shouted to the assembled children, "this balloon can never burst". And he blew some more.
And then, when the inevitable happened, and the balloon burst into a thousand shreds - he blew even harder into the mouthpiece. "No, really" he shouted at the frightened children. "Just watch this - if I blow some more the balloon will come back together". "Honest!".
Thanks Cassius
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216. grandantidote
Sorry about the wifes knee.
I think you must be at one of those nice new PFI hospitals, you know the ones built and equiped by private companies and rented back to the people for decades at a huge premium.
They arnt built and paid for by your beloved party so lets not pretend they are.
They are very expensive, even the maintenance costs over the odds
SO while they may offer a good service, they do not under the common meaning of the phrase offer good value.
Investors in one of the early hospital projects, for example, made a 60% windfall
Check it out
So not really, no it doesnt it.
Hey ho
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Brown admits he made mistakes.
For goodness sake - THAT should be the headline.
Most people learn from their mistakes.
Most employers only give them so many chances.
I feel that Brown has made so many, for so lomg, that a sensible employer would suggest a good re-training course.
Ideally overseas...
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Nick
Wow the Times is not happy with Mr Cameron & Co.
Perhaps the Tories should do a 1603 and ask King Alex the Salmond to become king of Toryland as well.
King Alex loves to Grandstand and I'm sure would enjoy a visit to the United Nations and meeting leaders from the Axis of Poverty.
Failing that there is always Ms Annabelle Goldie who runs the Tory platoon up here standing guard over Jenners in Princes Street (for the benefit of the English etc that is a posh shop in Edinburgh).
Other than that well ... IDS anyone?
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Why don't you have a discussion about the fascist tendencies of Brown's government? The latest disclosures on the ID Card/Register?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7742619.stm
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boating_voter@200
To many lists for people to ignore on here. for labour kickings see September 2007 to the phoney "Media speculation" of a leadership challenge. Just before Nicks summer holidays in August 2008. You Tories saw him as one of your best mates during that period. Dave Cameron and his Eaton chums got off without being challenged for far too long. Now he is being challenged. tories on here are crying labour bias and banging on about their license fee. everyone pays the same license fee. There are no black and white licenses for poor people anymore. Its hilarious and beyond parody.
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243 carrots
I am afraid your wrong old chap built equipped and staffed by the NHS its a superb hospital with a excellent staff so in your blind hate of everything that labour has done lay off the many hospitals which to you annoyance are doing really well, and I didn't as Cameron wanted pay half the cost.
In the meanwhile check your list of 50 that would be unusual for a Tory to put his mind into gear before opening his mouth. dont come back on this or I'll have to trawl back through my posts to give you my list for the third time.
I really feel it would be to tiresome to do so and its wasted on you Tories anyway in fact there's not much thats not wasted on you tories.
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David Cameron once said ?conviction without policy is like a car without wheels.? Sadly the wheels seem to be coming off, and in the absence of sustained attack Gordon Brown is in serious danger of beginning to enjoy himself.
See opine-blog.com for more.
Opine Ed
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1 Across Anatole Kaletsky 3,5,7 (anag.)
aka yokel talents
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I find it strange that Conservatives can point at MPC minutes as well as rub their hands in glee, because the man who predicted no recession thinks they're in trouble. Must be a shoe in for the Conservatives then, I don't understand how you can quote this guy who appears to spout random opinions
Do you actually research your stuff Nick? Or was this dashed off on the way to the club?
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why all the neu labour bashing dont you know they dont care what the electorate think becouse they know the electorate of this once great country are sheep and will only bleat on whilst they are sheared but soon stop when given treats.
so sheep stop bleating and grow a back bone and do something, i doubt you will becouse you all know untill the population is ready to beguin its best to sit at a keyboard and moan.
all the while gordon and his mob are laughing at us whilst bleeding us dry.
party politics what a joke its too corrupt and self interested.
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#39 U( driving license details)
Of course we indulge in eye bulging two minutes hate for the Sainted Margaret..
She created and encouraged the sale of every national resource . Now we don't even own our own water, gas or electricity thanks to her free market philosophies . In fact we don't even make any thing any more but we did lead the world in finance - we all work for the banks now.. and they cannot be trusted to do a simple thing right . Greed IS good if you're a banker but for the rest of us it is a disaster so thanks to her far sightedness we are all like the Christmas turkey - filled with something..
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This govt is in a mess - some of their own making, some out of their control - people should always remember that hindsight is a wonderful thing - easy to be wise after the event - harder to make the decisions now.
I don't envy them - but i do expect them to do a half decent job - they get paid our money to do that, after all.
The real scandal, and what will hit labour very hard, is the growing perception by so many "everday folk" that after everything else, they are now bailing out the financiers - a very "tory" trait, in many eyes.
I was made redundant in Jan07. The company I worked for lost its next 1/4 funding, and went into administration. It had a £400k credit line, £12m turnover and 115 staff. When it all shook down, the NIF(ie the taxpayer) paid the redundancy, at legal minimums. All suppliers were paid. The "suits" charged £650K in fees - to close and assett strip a business owing 250K !
I set up my own company in Feb 07 - we employ 7 people, and its hard work. Wages are about UK national average.
Why on earth should employees of these bankrupt, cashless, insolvent companies get bonuses funded by the rest of us ???? They are all lucky to be getting a monthly salary, never mind a bonus - look back decades, then tell the workers and families of UK miners, car makers, mill workers, steel workers, retail staff, farm workers etc etc etc why their firms were allowed to wither and die when the cash ran out, yet the bankers are bailed out time and again.
I really do think I will be withholding my taxes next year if HBOS/Loyds/RBS/NAT WEST etc get paid bonuses......why should I fund them - they didn't fund my old company ?....I am doing 6 or more days, often for 12 or more hours to build a business for my family and staff....not to fund the gravy train for others.
Its a scandal - we are all being mugged to bail out an industry that grew fat for decades through nothing more than greed.
ALL staff ( and sorry for the "foot soldiers" ) should be on council pay scales - from the counter staff, to branch and area managers. When you have NO money , that?s what the reality is. In 2007 my redundancy "package" was a joke - because no one bailed out my employer, so I got the legal minimum, paid for by the government. Far less than I was "contractually due" - but there was no cash......why are bankers bonuses any different.
The fact a bank caused my previous employers woes - and their suited colleagues in the insolvency firm feasted on the scraps, just makes it all the worse.
Mr Brown and his colleagues run the risk on losing bitg time, on two fronts - they will confirm the doubts of their natural enemies, and yet they will also alienate their core supporters.
They are between a (northen) rock, and a hrad place.
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