Campaign Obama
The Obama campaign is over. Campaign Obama has only just begun. He may no longer need to obsess about winning friends and influencing people. It is, though, now the turn of other world leaders to try to become his friend and to influence him.
In embassies across Washington DC diplomats are angsting about whether their leader will be the first to meet the president-elect, the first to greet him at home and the first to be hailed as America's special friend.
Gordon Brown must hope that his last meeting with Barack Obama has not clouded the prospects. When the two men met in London this summer the guest was forced to come to the defence of his host. The air was thick with talk that there would be a new British prime minister long before there was a new American president. When Obama met David Cameron, on the other hand, he was heard to congratulate the Tory leader on his success.
No matter say those close to the prime minister. Brown and Obama got on well, they share the same progressive values, their aides and advisers have formed close ideological bonds. And besides, as one minister puts it memorably, the real Brown government only began a month ago and leaders around the world know that.
Brown, they argue, is a man with a global economic plan who can come to the aid of a president-elect who's talked vaguely of mending the plumbing of the world's financial system without actually spelling out how. The Democrats, one Brown ally told me, admit that they've not thought this through - well, he added, Gordon has.
Obama's promise of change is somewhat clearer when it comes to foreign policy. He's pledged a rapid withdrawal from Iraq whilst talking of the mirror image - a military surge - in Afghanistan. His most controversial pledge was for re-opening dialogue with Iran without pre-conditions. There is, one senior Whitehall figure told me, a real danger that as the British government struggles to escape from its partnership with the Bush administration it is left looking flat footed. Another said that "anyone who tells you they know what the next president will actually do is lying."
Some close to Gordon Brown have been recalling a previous close bond between a young charismatic new kid on the global block and an older, more experienced British leader. Harold Macmillan struck up a real friendship with Jack Kennedy posing as the wise Greek advising the young Roman. This comparison is now officially frowned upon for being, well, just a tad patronising to the next leader of the free world.
And, of course, as British politicians and diplomats plot their charm offensive, others in Berlin and Paris are doing exactly the same. When Barack Obama finally takes office some joke he'll probably find President Sarkozy waiting there for him.
When George Bush became President eight years ago it was President Chirac not Prime Minister Blair who was first through the door of the Oval Office. Former civil servants from the time now protest that the race to be first or closest is at best pointless and, at worst, demeaning.
Those who are still in those jobs admit privately that it's a campaign they don't want to lose.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~32~RS~)
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Is Justin Webb doing UK politics for a bit then?
Nothing going on here of note:
No Bye elections
No DNA data base defeat in the lords
No wriggling Mandleson
No ID Card schem being unveiled.
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Brown should do what he did last time. Simply declare he's off to see the president elect/to save the world and then sit outside Obama's house until the guy takes pity on him and lets him in for five minutes.
Worked before.
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Poster #1 needs to get off his high horse. Nick blogged about Glenrothes earlier this week. It's convention not to comment on an election in the UK whilst it is ongoing, so Nick can't talk about the by-election until after polls have closed tonight.
Nick's also clearly talking about the UK aspect of the US Election - how is the positioning of the "special relationship" going to continue, and with who?
I think Obama should be savvy and invite the Mexicans & the Canadians first and then meet the Europeans in one fell swoop. That'd kill this argument.
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Does Obama like Brown more than Cameron?
Really?
Who cares!
They'll have to work together regardless, and therefore make a fist of it.
We'll find out in January.
Till then move on.
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No.1 Unlike the US, in this country an election is not covered in detail in the media, on the day it happens. Nor is there any active campaigning.
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Even Brians Scotland blog is about the US these days!
Did the UK drift west a few nights ago and we became the 53rd state?
I didnt even get my vote!
The BBC never fails to amaze me - they would much rather be globe trotting around the World and reporting whats going on at home. Just like our politicians.
Time for the Licence Fee to be ditched maybe?
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Funny that it was a "Crucial duel" a few days ago, but on polling day, auntie is following the NuLab party line of making it "a good bad news day".
There'll be plenty of time to think about Obama before he actually becomes president but today may see another nail hammered into "Duff" Gordon's political coffin or his emulation of Mr Clinton as the comeback kid. Oh, and by the way it may give the odd pointer on whether the UK will long survive with its peculiar asymmetric polity.
Slightly more topical?
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From the hysterical and overblown media coverage a person might start to think that Barak Obama's election as America's first black president was almost as important as Wossy and Brandy effin' an' a-blindin' on the radio!
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I'm sure Gordon will have his eye to the main chance. When he loses the next election he could follow in Tony's steps and make a name (and £12m a year) for himself on the speaker's circuit. A meeting with Obama under the guise of the world's financial plumbing system and how to fix it could clinch the deal. After all, that's what Tony did, wasn't it?
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The key issues Obama needs to resolve are:
Iraq (Bush and Blair)
Economic Crash (Bush and Brown)
(Brown is part cause for the bust and is culpable in these areas: monetary policy, regulation, and fiscal policy.
Gordon fuelled the UK bubble, in everything from housing to equities and financial instruments, that is now deflating.)
I can see Brown being useful in understanding where things have gone wrong. However, if I was Obama - I would not want Brown's finger prints over my recovery plan.
Since Brown is not able to own up to his mistakes he will distort any recovery plan in order to protect his reputation.
Brown is part of the problem. He is not part of the solution.
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And besides, as one minister puts it memorably, the real Brown government only began a month ago and leaders around the world know that.
Yes thats Brown - keeps saying it starts now, then in a few months when it goes wrong (again), he declares that it is starting again for real now, and then in a few months when it goes wrong (again), he declares that it is starting again for real.. etc...
Just like his 'over the business cycle' - the cycle that was constantly re-defined to meet the rules - until even this flexibility couldn't cover up his mistakes.
It is demeaning to the UK to see Brown trying to get some reflected glory from Obama -- the UK PM should have the stature not to need such tricks -- another clear demonstration of Browns own lack of confidence, insecurity and unfitness for office.
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Nick
Good, balanced post. I hope this is a sign you are going back to your old blog style and not acting as a cheerleader for G Brown.
A plea: at your next editorial meeting, please ask your colleagues to stop referring to Mr. Obama's skin colour in every piece they write.
OK, his being half of African descent contributed significantly to his victory.
But it's not relevant to the story any more, as he has moved from being from candidate to President Elect.
E.g. today's headline article about his new team includes the following sentence, completely unrelated to the rest of the piece:
"Mr Obama was elected the first black US president on Tuesday with a resounding win over Republican rival John McCain."
This is completely off the point of the article. Is there anybody on the planet who might read this who doesn't already know Obama's heritage?
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Nick,
Why aren't youwriting about Glenrothes????
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Nick you say,
"No matter say those close to the prime minister. Brown and Obama got on well, they share the same progressive values, their aides and advisers have formed close ideological bonds." What are these so called progressive values Brown has. He is boring and uninspiring and people in the US don't even know who he is. Does Alistair write this blog for you sometime ?
You also say,
"Brown, they argue, is a man with a global economic plan who can come to the aid of a president-elect who's talked vaguely of mending the plumbing of the world's financial system without actually spelling out how. The Democrats, one Brown ally told me, admit that they've not thought this through - well, he added, Gordon has."
In that case why doesn't GB go work for Obama and the UK have a general election and get rid of all the incompetent members of the Labour government. They have destroyed everything Great Britain stood for.
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Sorry Nick,
But this really is a non subject.
I predict that this thread will very rapidly move off topic !
Hazell Blears' comments on blogs will be my favourite for "topic of the day".
"bloggers have distain for the political system and politicians" - she's right there. I wonder why that is ? Central to this is that the electorate simply don't feel represented by the current political incumbents.
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Nick
Any chance of anyone publishing the content/audio of the BBC seminar this morning about the US Election result.
Rgds
Matt Wardman
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#5 Vimeiro
No.1 Unlike the US, in this country an election is not covered in detail in the media, on the day it happens. Nor is there any active campaigning.
Vim - where have you been living for the past 20 years or so? Up until about 2 years ago, we had reasonably good coverage of the run up to by-elections. Wake up!
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What is this nonsense about the progressive left?
Is this the same progressive left that has left us saddled with the highest level of personal indebtedness to household income ever? 180 percent to be precise,,higher than the the US at 140 and higher than the 100 percent average in Europe.
There is nothing progressive baout a credit boom..merely progressive debts leaving generations hobbled paying them off.
There is nothing progressive baout breaking the banking system and the nationalising it; that's positively regressive.
Never have so many given themselves personal accreditation about so little.
it would be progressive if they were to utter one word of apology for the dire state this economy is in and then step aside.
Call an election.
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charismatic, visionary, energetic, popular - not words that trip of the tongue when discussing Gordon Brown's attributes.
Time to ditch the dummy and get the UK back on track.
Go Brown, Go Now. It's time for Change
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Seer Nick
ACCORDING TO HAZEL BLEARS YOU ARE A POLITICAL CYNIC,
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@11
My kids do that when they are losing anything too!
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"a president-elect who's talked vaguely of mending the plumbing of the world's financial system without actually spelling out how."
Sounds like this is exactly what Brown has in common with Obama, Vague talk
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First balanced blog for a while. Is Alistair Campbell on holiday?
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Jordan D @3 wrote:
"It's convention not to comment on an election in the UK whilst it is ongoing, so Nick can't talk about the by-election until after polls have closed tonight."
Is this the same convention that dictates that PMs don't campaign in by-elections?
I guess that Brown and his 'prop' are unconventional.
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Sorry but have you joined the "Gordon Brown can do no wrong" society..
And I quote:
"the real Brown government only began a month ago and leaders around the world know that"
You are repeating self serving drivel....
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If Gordon Brown is a progressive politician I am Mickey Mouse. The guy's policies belong to the 1970's. Nick please stop saying this. You sound like an idiot not the perceptive commentator I know you are.
The coverage of the US election, though very important, can be put off for a few days though while more important domestic issues are discussed. I refer to a certian by-election of course.
BTW has Hazel Blears got a nerve or what?!
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It's pretty obvious to anyone looking on that Gordon Brown has gravitas and a plan but Obama has the energy and charm behind him. I don't think there's any place for boasting or getting sneery about things. Both have their strengths and weaknesses, and if they can put the ego aside and focus on getting the job done the success will happen in its own time.
One could argue that Brown is the senior partner in policy and connection terms, but Obama is the senior partner in presentation and resonance. In personality terms, Brown has to maintain the upper hand or Obama will start getting cocky, but Obama has to absorb things otherwise Brown will start biting his head off.
The American attitude of industry is great but tends to trample things while the British intellectualism adds subtlety but can be elitist. My take is if Brown can "borrow" American confidence and Obama can "borrow" British sense of context, this will help develop the Anglo-Saxon partnership and help flip the broken fundamentals.
I've commented, before, that the global economy can survive a complete disconnection of the American economy within 3-5 years. Plus, America is beginning to appreciate its economic success depends on the rest of the world. If people can get over that I see no reason why recovery can't begin immediately.
Personally, I don't believe it will take genius to develop things well. The real issue is whether people can stop trying to be clever or protectionist, and avoid royally screwing this opportunity up. Opportunities don't come along that often, and it would take a real putz to miss this one. Really, all you have to do is turn up. The rest just happens.
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Nick
You tell us :
"No matter say those close to the prime minister. Brown and Obama got on well, they share the same progressive values, their aides and advisers have formed close ideological bonds. And besides, as one minister puts it memorably, the real Brown government only began a month ago and leaders around the world know that.
Brown, they argue, is a man with a global economic plan who can come to the aid of a president-elect who's talked vaguely of mending the plumbing of the world's financial system without actually spelling out how. The Democrats, one Brown ally told me, admit that they've not thought this through - well, he added, Gordon has."
Since when was it your job to spread Labour propoganda ?
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It might be politics Nick, but not as we know it.
Today there's a by-election; financial meltdown is still going on; people are dying in Africa; there are still problems in Afghanistan, and yet you trivialize matters by posing a theoretical question that won't even come into view till next year.
Who is setting the agenda here Nick? Allie and Petie, directly or indirectly, and did you oppose it?
This, quite frankly, is lightweight puff, and not worth serious discussion, unless, of course, you are a zen grand master, or whatever.
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Dear Nick,
Chief of staff a Clinton Advisor? I fEEL HE'S ALREADY BEING MANIPULATED,
but ,
this is going to be a highly defended President by the secret service.???
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It is indeed a bit pathetic that our PM tries so hard to associate himself with the new US president elect. The 'novice' thing was a bit unfortunate from this angle but maybe the Americans won't have heard as much about it as we have.The 'change' also looks a trifle difficult for our political master but hey we've got Peter and Alistair back to spin our way out of that one.
Like some others I was also perplexed by Hazel Blears outburst yesterday. Don't these pesky bloggers know that they're meant to believe what politicians tell them or spin for them? How dare they express other opinions? They're obviously all right wing ranters.
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"DC diplomats are angsting"
Nick I know there are more critical things to concern ourselves about but 'angsting' - did you really have to?
Sorry to be precious when there's so much of substance to focus on but one of the reasons for liking your reports and blogs is you normally avoid such ugly journalese. Don't go all Robert Peston on us please!
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26. At 11:01am on 06 Nov 2008, Jonno_79 wrote:
If Gordon Brown is a progressive politician I am Mickey Mouse. The guy's policies belong to the 1970's. Nick please stop saying this. You sound like an idiot not the perceptive commentator I know you are.
....and I'm Donald Duck.
Blears is a perfect ventriloquist's puppet!
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Why on earth would President Elect Obama want to meet Goofy Gordon? He reputation as the Iron Chancellor is completely bust and his competence for running the economy is anything but. There is nothing Brown could teach him about being a leader he's only been in the job himself for just over a year. Oh and did you not just point out the Brown Premiership has only just started now. Then pray tell me who's been running the country for he last 12 months? So no I don't think he will be the first to meet the President Elect as there are many who come further up the line than him.
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The best hopes of the world are contained in the words "re-opening dialogue with Iran". Dare we hope the new regime in the USA will fulfil this pledge? Will it reconsider the missile shield in Eastern Europe and enter into discussions with the Russians about it instead?
More than that, will the USA, now it has a president with experience in social work, become more egalitarian, like some of its European allies?
Will the new administration of the USA listen to its many expert citizens who warn of the dangers of climate change and sign up to international agreements?
There are so many hopes resting on the young shoulders of the new President elect. Who cares who is the first to pay court to the new regime from the rest of the world, or how much older than him they are, so long as the new American administration finds common ground with them when they do.
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I notice the Lord Mandy is getting himself involved and, according to the header for the article, stating that banks will pass on the effect of rate cuts in full.
Nice header, but can he deliver? Can he MAKE the banks act like that? How?
Or can he only attempt to force the nationalised banks to act like that?
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About 5000 per square inch if you know where to look, but I doubt the tub thumping virgins posting in here know that.
Had to be said.
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Further, with all the heavily dropped hints from politicians about rate cuts during the past week, what price an indpendent banok of England, which is supposed to have been El Gordo's defining action from 1997. Since he himself has been spouting the old fashioned political garbage about interest rates, then obviously he doesn't respect the bank's supposed integrity.
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It seems to me that 'British' politicians have a huge problem with perspective when it comes to America.
'British' politicians are, in the context of America, always, always, struggling to punch way above their weight.
It is a pretty unedifying spectacle watching these 'British' politicians frantically currying favour with the new movers and shakers in US politics.
They seem to be almost totally in thrall to the USA but our political or economic objectives do not always neatly co-incidence.
In a saner politicial world, our politicians would fully comprehend that from an American political, economic and especially military perspective, we are of very limited value and adjust to that reality.
Which broadly translates into playing our full and willing part in building the European Union whilst simultaneously strengthening and developing our relationships with the BRIC, the Commonwealth and the USA.
PS. As the Times leader mentioned today, America has delivered a masterclass in democracy ... I wonder how many English people can map that onto our pitiful English 'democracy'.
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Here's a thought Nick.
Has the government actually got a joined up strategy related to security?
It's had another rebufff from the Upper (sensible) House related to retention of DNA data.
Now the ID cards that were going to be imposed on airport staff is being watered down, and obviously will be a disaster because it hasn't been completely thought through. And now there are suggestions that supermarkets will be involved in gathering fingerprints for biometric data for ID cards.
Are they in their right minds? This is about security, national security in the first instance. With the fingerprint now being considered more important than the photo, they plan a series of "get my dabs quick" booths, presumably along the lines of the quick photo booths.
Who is going to verify that the fingerprints belong to who they are claimed to belong?
Who's going to check, and how? Will this disturb the normal running of the supermarket in anyway? Is there a profit incentive for the store to host this "service"? Will this have an effect on the cost?
Do they really know what they're doing, or making it up as they go?
Don't answer that, we know.
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Blears = CEH
Yes / no
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#37
Does your figure represent nerves, or nerve endings or both?
Also, have you been looking, or are you also a tub-thumping virgin?
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37 Charles_E_Hardwidge
Takes one to know one ;-)
Had to be said!
Anyway - you have to feel sorry for Obama - the politicians that will be beating his door the hardest will be the ones that are failing and need some of the Obama magic to rub off on them.
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People are attracted by razzle dazzle and eyeballs, but influence is another thing and not always so obvious.
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#18
Robin JD. I tend to get a bit lost with the comparisons between debt and GDP etc. The thing that I've tended to focus on is the number of individual insolvencies published by the Insolvency Service.
[Unsuitable URL - .xls doc removed by Moderator]
As well as looking at % of debt to GDP, we should also look at % of debt to income. Here is a BBC news article from 2004 highlighting the seriousness of this issue:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3848243.stm
So:
*Rising levels of bankruptcies and individual voluntary arrangements.
* Rising levels of household debt susceptible to changes in interest rates.
* A consumer boom fuelled by low interest rates.
* The aggregation of toxic assets on banking balance sheets.
* Warnings from the Bank of England.
* A super-regulator, created from fresh after dispensing with the smaller specialist regulators
* The removal of banking supervision from the BofE to the FSA, creating a muddle
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/sep/21/viewpointcolumn
There's been lots of talk about blame, responsibility etc.
It doesn't seem hard to see that the Government is both accountable and responsibile for what has happened in the UK. Clearly, the problems that have beset the markets is a world-wide thing, however we pride ourselves on being #1 in the financlal markets, and this must mean in every aspect.
This includes having the regulators understand the risk that is sitting on banking balance sheets and using the measures available to them to minimise the potential for wholesale trouble.
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Much more interestingly
Interest rates are cut by 1.5%
Anyone drawing the obvious conclusion???
....mmmmmm
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CEH @ 44
I agree that 'influence' is a very useful tool but I prefer to see this used carefully in a very understated way.
Which is something I believe you often allude to with your informative 'zen thing'.
PS. A few kind words can go a very long way.
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I think Gordon Brown will be seen in US circles as a damning reminder of the old policies and Obama will be advised to stay clear....
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Since it's become obvious that Obama and Brown can work together, and that the Republican's have imploded, I note how the Tories have suddenly cooled on the whole Obama thing and are distancing themselves like he's got a bad rash.
Flip-flop. Flip-flop. Flip-flop.
C'mon, get a grip.
'Dave' pinches any idea that's going and tries to sell it back to people. He's also exploded all over the place and become a little demanding. I'm just waiting for 'Dave' to go the whole clothes pinching be my friend routine and declare he's a Zen Buddhist. 5..4..3...
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#26
Jonno_79
I doubt that she even has a brain.
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There's some truth in that. I think, this is why it's important that Labour develop more subtlety and kindness, and in a genuine and meaningful way.
The Dali Lama comments in an essay that silence and gentleness can develop a sense of genius and resonance - the X-Factor you've commented on.
Personally, this is work in progress and your reminder is an opportunity to reflect. It grates a little on the ego but I can acknowledge that one and be thankfull.
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27 Charles_E_Hardwidge
It's pretty obvious to anyone looking on that Gordon Brown has gravitas and a plan but Obama has the energy and charm behind
CEH - I don't normally read past the name on your stuff, however my brain registered the first para before I could stop it, so....
There are plenty of people who see absolutely no gravitas in gordon brown.
The fact that you can claim otherwise is just more evidence of your complete lack of understanding -- the only think I think you may have once said that I can support is that you share some characteristics with gordon brown - this you probably share with mandleson too -- you can say something in a confident manner despite it having no basis in fact whether you have just fogotten all the comments hereabouts saying brown has no gravitas, or whether you knowingly write untruths I don't know - however it is clear that your writing is based on nothing but hot air.
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51. Eatonrifle
Outrageous suggestion, couldnt possibly comment on an election day.
Good timing though... Eh?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Let's be honest. A 1.5% cut is not just a bribe to the soon-to-be-unemployed of Glenrothes. It's a stark acknowledgement of the disastrous outlook for the UK economy.
And economy mismanaged into oblivion for the past decade by Gordon Brown and his happy band of shuffling drones as they vote through ever more insane laws and distract the voters attention with low interest rates and hundreds of billions of pump-priming squandering.
Now they've all suddenly woken up, the most indebted nation on the planet, the economy in freefall, house prices in freefall, banks collapsing, unemployment rocketing. But fear not. The architect of this financial maelstrom is always there with a dismissive sound-bite. 'Uniquely placed to weather the storm' apparently.
The government really does live in a 'bubble' doesn't it? It must be like the Forbidden City at Number 10. No news of the outside world is allowed to filter in and disturb the paper PM from designing fantasy policies with fantasy outcomes on fantasy budgets.
They simply have no clue.
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Which World leader will meet Barack Obama first?
Clearly, it should be Vince Cable. I know he's not a World leader, however, he's the only one who has a clue about the World economy, in our parliament at least.
Those who think Gordon Brown has the answers is expecting an awful lot. I don't dispute that he's intelligent but I do dispute the fact that he's got the answers - he simply has a point of view.
Blind faith doesn't often yield results when it comes to economics.
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the-real-truth @53,
A thick, leaden personality is usually mistaken for 'gravitas' by the dim (or the deceitful).
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Relevant snippets from the BBC news site:
" 'very marked deterioration in the outlook' and 'severe contraction' say the bank of england."
"Supermarkets could take fingerprints for ID cards, the home office said."
"The Biometric Assurance Group (BAG) says officials may struggle to cope with the number of false matches, which could run into tens of thousands."
"Activity in the service sector, the backbone of the UK economy, shrank in October for the sixth month in a row. output from services was at its lowest level since its poll began in 1996"
"manufacturing output fell for a seventh month in September - the longest run of monthly declines since 1980. Manufacturing output fell by 0.8% in September, much worse than analysts' expectations, making output 2.3% lower than a year earlier"
My opinion given the above:
I sincerely hope that Obama isn't considering taking advice from Gordon Brown.
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Non discussion of an election is more than a convention on a BBC blog. The House Rules say -
"In line with the political parties and other UK broadcasters, the BBC will not be reporting the election campaign or offering discussion about the campaign on any of its outlets while the polls are open. The message boards will remain open on Polling Day, but users must refrain from discussing the election while the polls are open. Usual BBC House Rules will resume once the polls are closed."
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I'm no big fan of Tracy Emin. I think, she's a mess and obnoxious, but an essay by Tracy in today's Independent captures a sense of where Britain was and what it could be.
Tracy comments on her being locked inside a cluttered and raging mind, and discovering classical music. Classical music has an order, flow, detail, and harmony to it that encapsulates the essence of a great movie, game, or moment. By dropping pretence and opening herself to classical music, Tracy has discovered these qualities within herself that have always been there.
Tracy's experience is similar to the calm and perspective a Zen garden unlocks within people. Like Zen, her sense of discovering there's another world out there is really just her discovering her new self through which she perceives the world differently. One can struggle for years or travel thousands of miles to experience this and fail, or throw yourself at the ground and accidently miss.
People comment about plans and mastery, and Zen has a lot to say about both. Sometimes, the expert is too close to things they miss the picture, or the novice is so without a clue they never settle on one thing long enough to develop a clue. This is another reason why Zen advocates people drop the ego and stop grasping at thoughts and desires which crowd the mind, and allow the inner potential to emerge.
I've commented on internet discussion and Brown's leadership position versus the US in the past couple of days, and both were reflected in headlines within 24 hours. And not for the first time. So, I'm generally satisfied with what I post. I could always do better but that's another thing.
Add value. Be nice. That's all you need.
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I doubt he'd be the first to be summoned to the Oval Office, but I'm interested in how quickly (if?) Obama will renew diplomatic links with Spain. Zapatero endorsed Kerry before the 2004 election, and he opposed the Iraq war. He confronted the establishment in Spain (the Catholic Church over education). It would be a strong signal from Obama towards a soulmate, and a signal towards Latin America as well.
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54 Carrotsneedaquango
Labour are devious enough to try it.
If nothing else - it does show that the Bank of England doesn't buy Gordon's we are "uniquely placed to weather the financial storm" line.
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Okay let's just have a think about this...
500bn bank bail with equity portion taken up only by HBOScotland and RBScotland.
Record ever interest rate cut today at 150bps.
Errmm... what else could be happening today, in Scotland?
No need to call an election..there already is one...a very expensive one at that.
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# U9461192
# 60 getridofgordonnow
Huw Pym had just acknowledged on the one o'clock news that the size of interest rate reduction signifies that the British economy is in a much worse state than has previously been admitted.
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it does show that the Bank of England doesn't buy Gordon's we are "uniquely placed to weather the financial storm" line.
The UK economy is uniquely placed to weather the financial storm. In the sense that it's dead and buried. The only way the economy could be any more wrecked is if it was exhumed and hung out in a gibbet like Oliver Cromwell's corpse in a hurricane.
We're just waiting for the storm to pass now so we can erect the headstone.
Apart from that the UK economy is utterly, utterly destroyed. Nice one Gordon.
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Everyone is talking about the first black president.
What about his mother?
If someone of mixed race parentage became president of Kenya - would we would be trumpeting the first white president?
I am concerned that racial extremists (on either side of the divide) may be desperately trying to spin the colur aspect - and not focus on the fact that the US are turning to the next generation to get them out of their critical financial situation.
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# 61 oldnat
Yes, but the house rules do not cover BBC news bulletins, do they?
Perhaps all the cameras are all in use in the US! I seem to remember interviews on streets in the build up to and on the day of all previous by-elections, even those with no impact on the government of the day. There was always some comment with a list of all candidates standing.
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64. jonathan_cook
Devious, Devious, surely not, Eatons beloved leader would never stoop so low.
Hes whiter than white.
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Lenders "will not rush" to announce a drop in the cost of variable rate mortgages after the Bank rate decision.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee cut interest rates by one and a half percentage points to 3%.
Michael Coogan, of the Council of Mortgage Lenders, said lenders would take their time given the hefty cut.
Theres one in the eye for Mandy
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Huw Pym had just acknowledged on the one o'clock news that the size of interest rate reduction signifies that the British economy is in a much worse state than has previously been admitted.
My Kung Fu is strong. Grasshopper.
Thing is, it didn't take an emergency 1.5% rate cut to tell me the economy was in the toilet. The figures have been telling us that for years.
Gordon crowing about GDP 'growing' by 2.5% a year. Woop-de-do. And suppose our government wasn't borrowing 3% of GDP just to pay off our national debt. What would GDP have looked like then?
Anyway, we'll all get a real clear picture of how Gordon Brown has utterly destroyed the economy in Spring 2010. By then we should be well and truly into this Gordon-begotten depression. I'm going for a figure in excess of 100bn of government deficit for the year 2009/10.
'For investment' no doubt.
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"The real Brown government only began a month ago"
You really are swallowing hook line and sinker the newlabour spin doctors.
Well if the real Brown government only began a month ago can the tax payer please have the money back for the previous eighteen months of Brown non-government. All the money wasted on advisers, the 10p tax disaster, Iraq, 42 day detention; the whole lot of it.
If newlabour spin doctors want to cpome up with this nonsense they should pay us back all the money they wasted while they were waiting to be the real government.
This really is an adminsitration running out of rhetoric about itself. It sounds dumber and dumber.
Which government is behind the biggest fall in house prices in syuch a short period? now down 15.7% from the Aug 2007 peak beating the decline of 13.2% recorded from peak to trough in the early 90s? Was that the real Brown government or was someone else in charge?
The real Brown govenrment only began a month ago - I have never heard anything so self regarding in my entire life.
This lot are a shower and should call an election.
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Hazel Blears was correct to identify the lurid and depressing media and bloggers who are obsessed with themselves. If they were some squaddie flapping around the trenches in a similar panic they'd be shot. But, that's "freedom of speech" for you.
Sorry, guys, but the recovery is thisasway.
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So once again the alleged close relationship between Harold Macmillan and JFK is used to justify a presumed close association between a UK Prime Minister and an incoming US President.
I think `Beyond the Fringe' had the last laugh on that topic when the made a joyous play on the word `broker'. Alan Bennett can be such fun!
There is something fairly indecent going on at the moment.
Obama has only just been elected and already people are dumping their hopes and dreams on his head. Whilst I have no doubt he would appreciate supernatural powers but he is not King of the Leprachauns and he does not live at the end of the rainbow.
The United States always acts in the perceived best interests of the United States. The current incumbent at the White House has had problems with his perceptions and so his party is to be replaced. Yet this will not mean sudden change for the better.
Any new direction that the USA is to take is in the future and subject to decisions yet to be made. I can appreciate that foreign governments would wish to influence those decisions but they will just have to accept that the needs of the American people will inevitably come first in any such equation.
All this speculation is quite vulgar and opportunistic. Let the guy get the chair warm first!
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67 U9461192
The phrase "uniquely placed to weather the financial storm" has always struck me as one of those "half-lies" that Gordon specialises in i.e.
He can use the phrase to sound positive about our finances, although if challenged in a court of law, he could claim that he hadn't mislead the public, since we are in a unique (uniquely dire) position compared to other countries.
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What happened the other night as Barack Obama become the new president of the United States mean? I will never forget the moment in January 1961, when John F. Kennedy was sworn in as president. ...Hopefully it will also mean that our own Gordon brown will and can learn a few things from him and also it's the end for conservatism and all of the selfishness and greed that goes with it. Hopefully one of our younger generation will grasp that anything is possible and go forward and take on the many failed politician's who have failed over many years in this country and succeed like Barack has done as we sure could do with a complete overhaul of this country. Yes i to have a dream!!
nick
bank of england (retired)
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If they were some squaddie flapping around the trenches in a similar panic they'd be shot.
If Gordon Brown were a Lieutenant in the army he'd have been 'fragged' by his own troops in 2001.
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#41 Pot_Kettle
Blears = CEH....dont be daft, she probably thinks Zen is the German word for ten!
Blears = Ugly nasel voice, ugly beady eyed face and generally just a short ugly woman .....and who had the audacity to call herself a 'poor' public servant on Radio 4 yesterday evening.
You're kidding no one dear (that's if your still reading these blogs!)
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@74
I was a squaddie, and let me tell you hogwash if our unflapable squaddies flap there is a good reason for it.
In Blears case she would have shouted a loud "follow me over the top boys", we would have yelled OK and promtly shot her in the back.
H.Jones anyone
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Ref the interest rate reduction:
Is this an early sign that we are about to hit "peak-snake-oil"?
'Peak-snake-oil' being the day that Labour can longer maintain its spin that they have managed the economy well.
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#66 jonties
#72 U9461192
I agree with U9461192 that the economy has been in a great deal more of a mess than the government have been telling us. A glance at almost any salient economic indicator over the last year has made very uncomfortable reading.
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Nick writes: "diplomats are angsting about whether their leader will be the first to meet the president-elect"
If Obama is interested in meeting someone with real influence in Europe, his best bet would be the unelected president, José Manuel Barroso.
Unlike the USA, we don't have a true democracy here, and many important decisions are made by unaccountable officials who cannot be removed from office by ordinary citizens.
A meeting of the American President Elect, and the Unelected President of Europe would prove insightful.
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74 CEH
"... bloggers who are obsessed with themselves...."
Your complete lack of self awareness is quite breathtaking.
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God Bless America.
Gold help the UK.
Come on SNP - win Glenrothes so that we can start to ditch Brown and then his government of all the non-talents
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Heres a few other memorable quotes or as one PRIME minister puts it MEMORABLY:
"We will negotiate a withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed jobs" - Election address, 1983.
"There will be few politicians standing for election next time on a platform advocating free markets" - October 1987.
"Penal rates of taxation do not make economic or political sense. They are gone for good" - Speech to CBI conference, November 1995.
"New Labour is not an old-style tax-and-spend party but wants a tax system that is fair, that rewards enterprise, at the bottom as well as the top income levels" - Speech to Time Magazine dinner, November 1995.
"Ask me my main three priorities for government and I will tell you: education, education and education" - Labour Party conference, October 1996.
"Labour is the party of law and order in Britain today. Tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime" - 1993 as shadow home secretary.
Oh well... hay ho...ever onwards...
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Batman's sidekick's guide to posting:
1. Criticise Nick Robinson for choosing to blog on a subject that is unimportant.
2. Move onto something unrelated to the blog post, which he thinks that Nick should be blogging on (why not instead comment on x, y and z)
3. Make up some facts to support point 2.
4. Criticise anyone who dares disagree with point 2, or challenge point 3 by providing some facts.
5. Call an election
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#79 BankslickerminustheR
My word I think there is someone who hates Hazel Blears as much as me.
I didn't think that was possible!
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Shock news!
The Home Secretaries finger prints have been found at a petrol station that was ripped off last month:
Ministerial Crime Scene
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@78
Sorry same opinion 4 minutes apart
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Could I suggest Nick's next blog gives us a chance to discuss some of the things which are implicitly assumed in this entry?
For instance what is this detailed global economic plan which Obama will apparently be desperate to be a part of? Because I certainly haven't heard anything of note.
For that matter what is Brown's plan for the UK? He's made bold claims about spending our way out of the recession which have been denied the very next day by the Chancellor. The only other policy he seems to have is eroding the independence of the Bank of England which he lauded for so long.
What I'm really getting at Nick is when you're given lines by either a "Brown ally"
or a "Whitehall figure" maybe there should be some qualification before being published verbatim.
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#13 MaxSceptic
"Why aren't youwriting about Glenrothes????"
Possibly because he's also bound by the special house rules for polling day. See:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/messageboards/newguide/elections.shtml
That's the reason so many ordinary posts are being referred.
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89. jonathan_cook
LOL..
Best link today.
Thanks.
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#6 Trimmtab.
Whilst I think ditching the licence fee is an interesting and sensible proposal, I can categorically confirm that the UK hasn't become the 53rd state.
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87 Balhamu
SuperTed's sidekick guide to posting:
1. Assume as a starting point that the government can do no wrong (apart from Iraq)
2. Defend government no matter how ridiculous the Labour clanger.
3. In case of emergency: Break out words "Toff" and "Bullingdon"
4. Moan about people who criticise the government.
5. Post 'helpful' quizes and guides like this one to make a point.
6. Use of Zen is optional
7. Repeat
Afternoon ;-)
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BROWN SPEAK WITH FORK TONGUE....
In public he says the banks should pass on any BoE interest rate cuts....but then conveniently gives the nationalised banks carte blanche to do what they like!
BLEARS.....do you really believe these blogs undeservedly do your precious down......or is just that you really believe we are all just too stoopid to see through your lies???
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Does anyone else find the idea of using supermarkets to collect fingerprints hilarious? It's like Carry on 1984!
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Gordon Brown is doomed to fail in his quest to gain kudos and respect by association with Barack Obama. It's not as if he's just come onto the scene after all. Rather he will be lumped together with George Bush, the bankers and the financial analysts who all failed to see the impending credit crisis coming and neglected as a result to take the necessary steps to mitigate it. Barack Obama and David Cameron share the role of blameless bystanders. Both will now be charged with the task of clearing up the mess that has been partly made by their opponents. It's an enormous ask and to be honest I think it should have been down to the present negligent encumbents to clear up their own mess and then if necessary die by the electoral sword if they failed.
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#45.
That's a bit odd. My link to a Government website shwoing the number of bankruptcies and individual insolvencies has been removed as unsuitable.
Since it's central to the comment, to get to it visit the Insolvency Service website, click on Statistics and look at the Historical statistics.
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I think Blears assertion that blogs and writers of them and contributers in them dont reflect public opinion just demonstrates how out of touch and behind the times this government is.
I will grant you that some of the conspiracy theory blogs have no value but comic value.
And that some blogs on some of the politically motivated sites can be biased to one side or another.
But love them or hate them, the mainstream blogs where two sides of an arguement are put, are exactly where the pulse of the nation resides these days
she and the rest of her incompetant (oops sorry, incumbant) government would do rather better if they took some notic eof what is being said in them.
She should disregard the Zen stuff though, its completely irrelevant to Great Britain.
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One thing that gets me with Blears, is when she recieves a tough question she nearly always starts her answer with.
"Let Me Tell You Something Right!"
and when the questioning becomes too difficult for her to answer she gos for the.
"I don't think people in the street are really interested with all these goings on. What they want us to do is to get back to doing our job which is running the counrty!"
No Hazel,
We want you to stop spying on us and treating us all like potential terrorists.
We want you to stop committing us to things we cannot achive.
- 80% Zero Caborn Emissions
- Commiting yet more troops to Congo
- Green Towns
- Rubbish filing
- Sharing Cars
- Using buses
- Voting Labour
We want you to stop treating us like idiots.
We want you to stop lying.
We want you to GO!
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97 Poprishchin
It is just more insanity isn't it?!
The Government's credibility is so low, that a story like this will make no waves what so ever.
We have come to expect this government thrashing around or failing and people are becoming immune to the latest laughable news:
- 90 days. 42 days. Scrapped
- Secret trials. Scrapped
- ID Card.... for foreigners.... and errrr at 2 airports.
- DNA data base.... errr.....and DNA collection at Morrissons
- The Economy is uniquely well placed......... as we watch it crash
- Boom and Bust...... no I didn't say that.
- SATs. are an important strategic tool.......... Scrapped
- I have a plan to save the world..... errr although other countries had done something similar first and those following me have done something different
- 10p Tax................ it stung me to realise I'd been caught
- Iraq....... dodgy dossier.... enough said
- Cash for Peerages - Cash to allow smoking in F1 - Cash for Peter Hain and Wendy Alexander. £12m for Blair telling Americans how he supported their discredited war.
- Un-Elected Prime Minister.... no I want to set out my vision before going to the country...... Hoon 08 "we have no vision - just a series of measures".....err as every world leader knows Brown's government only started in September 2008
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#99 TerryNo2
Read the house rules carefully and you'll see there's a special clause about links to things which need special software.
The comment where your link was indicates it was to an XL file, which can't be opened by the browser directly. PDF files are usually treated the same.
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100 PotKettle
One wonders what El Blears makes of the latest news regarding Derek Draper and the Labour Blog Rebuttal Unit.
Plan to ignite the Labour blogosphere
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95. jonathan_cook
You forgot....
Quote:
1 Thatcher and the miners
2 A statistic that shows things have improved a little since the Tories were in power in the 1980s.
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#95
LOL
I'd like posters to keep a tally of just how many independent authorites the newlabour apologists refuse to believe.
So far balhamu is in denial about the 'made up' statistics from the Halifax today on the state of the Uk housing market and the the numbers from Capital Economics, showing personal indebtedness has reached an all time high of 180% to household income and miles above the previous peak of 100% in 1991...
Any more for any more?
Even the prime minister is in denial about the level of personal indebtedness and decided to lump it together with government indebtedness at PMQs yesterday alledging combined it wasn't that high.
Still, I look forward to receiuving balhmu's thoughtful list of 'alternative views of an economic catastrophe' at a posting near this one soon.
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Now that America has made the historic decision to elect an African American president with progressive liberal views....is Britain ready for Change??????
Will we ever again be able to elect an old Etonian Bullingdon Club member....or has Britain changed irrevocably in the last 50 years?????
'Dave' Cameron says - "As we used to say at Eton - YES. WE CANE!".
It's back to the future with Dave, Georgie and wee Willie Hague ...........
Would be funny if it wasn't a possibilty.....
Bill McFadden
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Jacqui Smith says public demand means people will be able to pre-register for an ID card within the next few months.
The cards will be available for all from 2012 but she said: "I regularly have people coming up to me and saying they don't want to wait that long."
Poor Jacqui can anyone reccomend a good hearing aid company what people are really saying is that they dont want to wait at all becaus ethey dont want them introduced ever!
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#100 Pot_Kettle
"just demonstrates how out of touch and behind the times this government is"
We shouldn't be surprised that Blears doesn't want or welcome 'feedback' from the electorate.
Just look at all the self-congratulatory videos they produce for their DowningSt site (at taxpayers expense) with comments disabled.
The e-petition site is also a joke. They don't listen; they just post replies explaining why they are always right, and we the people are always wrong.
This referendum-denying party isn't interested in what the voters want, because they know best!
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Is "Charles_E_Hardwidge" some sort of code or anagram of "Gordon is Magnificent "or "Alastair Campbell told me to write....."
Please can we have more of Hazel Blears. Everytime I see her on TV or hear her on the radio, the more certain of a Labour wipe out I become.
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I've unashamedly copied this from a post on Robert Peston's blog....
It is clear that bailing out the banks has once again protected this industry at the expense of the consumers. Basically, because of the moral hazard of letting banks fold, we the UK taxpayers have to pay to get the bankers out of jail. Yet, we don't get anything out of it as they use interest rate cuts to rebuild their balance sheets at the expense of other businesses.
Why don't we stop banks from fractional reserve lending? Let's make funds available from central banks to those who have good security at the Bank of England rate.
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@104
JC are they paying?
I would change the tone of my content for a cool 50K per annum
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With ref to my 112
I would of course create two further accounts to rebut myself on a daily basis
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Three Cheers for Gordon Brown he achieved something even Maggie couldn't
Pottery company Royal Worcester and Spode has gone into administration, it has been announced.
The company, which dates back to 1751, employs 388 people in the UK at sites in Stoke, Lymdale and Worcester.
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It would be nice if we took Obama at his word. He says he wants a new relationship with the allies of the US - well, let's decide what we want from it.
We have got, in this country, to seek out our interests, our needs, our dreams - not fall in with his, however much we may delight in his election.
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@107
Bill you forgot to mention "toff"
You wont be paid for that blog submission.
Please reveiw the Blears party rules on blogging before posting again
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107 billmcfadden
I don't think that wee Willie Hague went to Eton.....more like a comprehensive in Rotherham. Does this really make him unelectable ?
Apart from this factual inaccuracy, I'm not really sure what your point was ???
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has become even gloomier about the prospects for the world's economies.
It is predicting that developed economies as a whole will shrink by 0.3% next year, having predicted growth of 0.5% less than a month ago.
It would be the first time there has been a contraction in advanced economies since World War II.
Worst hit will be the UK, shrinking 1.3%, followed by Germany at 0.8% and the US and Spain contracting by 0.7%.
Truly even the IMF agree with Gordon Brown now "we are uniquely placed"
Not quite placed where he wanted us to believe admitedly, but unique, definately
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Sorry I just have to get this off my chest..
Eton... blah... Bullingdon..blah..toff...blah... priviledge...blah... Oxford Union...blah... nothing ever changes..blah... it's not fair...blah... why doesn't anyone like Gordon?
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Jacqui Smith says that "people come up to her and ask for ID cards to be done"
It's amazing who you can meet when in a kebab shop with an armed guard !!!
I don't think so ..........
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When are these politicians going to treat us with respect, I wonder?
It seems our deeply respected Home Secretary is regularly approached by people wanting ID cards? Where does she go out? Certainly not in Peckham, and certainly not without a kevlar vest, nor without a police escort.
Do they really think we're stupid?
Don't answer that.
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So, the good old independent BofE has slashed rates to 3, a bit more than people might have thought.
A gamble that won't work immediately at least, since nobody can get money at that rate. the banks are still screwed, and can't yet release assets to the bank to get funds at that rate, and certainly not in the volume required to bring overall rates down.
So now what for Mandy wandy. There he is saying banks WILL pass on rate cuts, so let's see him talk his way out of this.
Plus, this can only be described as an extreme panic measure. So what price El Gordo and all his minions various statements about the relative strength of our economy to weather the financial storm.
Are there no political issues in here to focus on?
Or maybe we're gonna have to wait until the good people of Glenrothes have passed judgement. Please don't let us down folks, give El Gordo and his boys a bloody nose.
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I note the banks not lowering interest rates and the bile spewing forth from Tory bloggers. This is just another test of strength by a clique who will do anything and say anything to maintain or acquire power. Honestly, it's like watching a bunch of spoilt kids misbehave when the teacher is out of the classroom.
The fact that Cameron won't acknowledge or apologise for this makes him complicit, and confirms my view that he's unfit to govern. He's just acting like some school thug that will never leave you alone unless smash his nose into the wall. But, if he carries on he'll trip up and come crashing down to the ground on his own.
The forces of recession and depression are strong in Britain, but by remaining calm, creative, and sociable both business and blogs will sow the seeds of recovery. All the blowhards and wannabes who are riding high on misery are too absorbed with themselves so will miss that opportunity and suffer by their own hand.
Read John Spivy's essay on investing in loss.
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Lot of talk I hear on the streets (and on the London Eye this morning) that Obama is a prime target for assassination. That being so those world leaders who may want to be seen hob-knobbing with him will need to mobilise an army around them for security.
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I notice comments about the US having a better system of democracy than Britain. One thing which would improve our system of democracy would be to institute proportional representation.
Another special point about this US election, as I understand it, is the campaign funds for Obama were supplied largely by millions of ordinary people, rather than huge donations. This, at the risk of repeating myself is the key. If you are happy with the Labour Party, fund it, join it support it. If you would rather have Conservatives in power send your donation to party headquarters. If you would rather support the Liberal Democrats, join and help fund them. and there are other parties which might suit you better.
The other special point to remember about this US election is the turn out. More people set out to vote than ever before. And some stood in queues for hours to do it. We suffer from voter apathy in this country and that really needs to be addressed. Talk to anyone from the former Soviet Union or anyone who lived in 1930s Germany and they would be horrified by the extent of voter apathy in the UK. How easily we flout the privilege to vote and by doing so, or encouraging others to do so, we get the government we deserve. One way to counteract this is to make voting compulsory. Or perhaps democracy and politics, and the reasons for it, should be taught in schools. Maybe its my background and life experiences, but I have always used my vote at both general and local elections. But I understand we regular voters are in a minority in the UK. That, plus the need for proportional representation, is the big failing in the UK's democratic system and part of it is down to us.
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Let's hope Obama has the common good sense to tell Brown to go forth and multiply!
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So nothing is happening in the UK then and all the leaders have nothing to do but consider how soon they can meet Obama and G. Brown has only been in power a month well I must have it all wrong then.
I thought we had the biggest economic crisis ever, I thought there was a bi-election and that Browns 'we are the best placed to weather the economic downturn' had been blown away today.
Obama seems to me to be his own man and why on earth would he want to take advise from a failure like Brown.
Get real the world is laughing at Brown to be frank hes embarrassing. His visit to the Middle East with his begging bowl made me cringe.
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i susoect that tomorrow will not be a good day for Gord and i'll bet a scottish £5 note that he'll dodge every question put to him by bringing up references to President elect Obama,and by taking credit for bringing down interest rates.......come to think of it ....its a good day to bury bad news......Glenrothes will be just another mid term blip (I've pinched the headlines from saturdays Guardian....alistair campbell eat your heart out)
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Man, I'm going to have to buy a new needle for the bullshit meter.
Some anonymous internet mouth who's so inconsequential nobody would waste a bullet on needs to develop a sense of irony.
Grow some hair, sonny.
MINISTRY OF LOVE WARNING:
This post may seriously change your sense of good behaviour and attitude towards others, and cause you to be grateful to your parents for having you, and spontaneously become happy and lose your virginity.
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with reference to hazel blears/blogs......now we know why Gord made it a priority in his previous budgets to ensure that all households had access to a computer......unfortunately they appear to have fallen into the wrong hands
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Hazel Blears - poisoned dwarf. Mousepiece of Brown.
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#129 CEH
MINISTRY OF LOVE WARNING:
This post may seriously change your sense of good behaviour and attitude towards others, and cause you to be grateful to your parents for having you, and spontaneously become happy and lose your virginity.
Does Nick know about this? He might want to post a Disclaimer.
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114. At 4:13pm on 06 Nov 2008, Pot_Kettle wrote:
Three Cheers for Gordon Brown he achieved something even Maggie couldn't
Pottery company Royal Worcester and Spode has gone into administration, it has been announced.
The company, which dates back to 1751, employs 388 people in the UK at sites in Stoke, Lymdale and Worcester.
Brown is making really sure that we don't have the metaphorical pot to p**s in!
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fp @ 131:
'Mousepiece' - love it!
The way she fawns and dribbles all over him with that constant false smile. This word describes her demeanour perectly!
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110. At 4:01pm on 06 Nov 2008, Eyetoldyouso wrote:
Please can we have more of Hazel Blears. Everytime I see her on TV or hear her on the radio, the more certain of a Labour wipe out I become.
Hazel Blears, Hazel Blears,
She's coming out of my bloomin' ears!
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"#66 jonties
#72 U9461192
I agree with U9461192 that the economy has been in a great deal more of a mess than the government have been telling us. A glance at almost any salient economic indicator over the last year has made very uncomfortable reading."
For me that's the most astonishing thing of all. The man on the street doesn't know much about libor, fractional reserve banking, etc, he just expects his elected government to run the country's finances wisely.
Consistently spending far more than you earn and lying about your state of indebtedness is not anyone's idea of wise financial management.
The "best chancellor in 100 years" will leave the economy in a far, far worse state than when he started.
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#125 newtactic
Spot on. I wonder whether it will come back into the NuLab manifesto next time. It was virtually the first promise broken from the '97 manifesto.
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#106 Robin
So far balhamu is in denial about the 'made up' statistics from the Halifax today on the state of the Uk housing market and the the numbers from Capital Economics, showing personal indebtedness has reached an all time high of 180% to household income and miles above the previous peak of 100% in 1991...
The Halifax says that house prices have decreased 15% year on year, I can believe that.
The latest official figures I can find (end 2007) show personal debt (mortgages + unsecured debt) at 155% of income (unsecured debt alone is at 24% of income). You still cannot provide me with a link for the Capital Economics numbers despite me asking for one (it seems that an increase of personal debt from 155% to 180% in the space of 6 months seems implausible).
Still, I look forward to receiuving balhmu's thoughtful list of 'alternative views of an economic catastrophe' at a posting near this one soon.
Your view is alternative enough thanks Robin.
The mainstream view (of every economist - experts) is that there is a global economic crisis and world recession going on (e.g. the US is currently experiencing negative growth too), caused in the main by US sub-prime debt and irresponsible behaviour by bankers. The UK Government let a housing boom grow out of control, and didn't follow their instincts to regulate bankers pay when it grew out of control or embark on the politically controversial re-regulation of the financial sector (I can name a certain group of politicians who some people on here carry a torch on who were complaining that regulation on the City was too much and leading to capital flight to less regulated financial centres).
The mainstream view is that Brown's response to the crisis has been a good one. Even Irwin Stelzer, not noted for his Labour-friendly outlook on life (and in the context of a very Labour-hostile article it has to be said, says this and notes that Osborne has made himself look a bit of a clown by suggesting that it isn't without having an alternative policy to solve the financial crisis - "Osborne can?t mount a credible attack on Brown?s theory of recession-fighting because the Prime Minister has it broadly right".
Robin, I would agree with you in areas where you are right (e.g. PFI-related borrowing means debt has been over 40% of GDP for a while now), but disagree with you where you are wrong (e.g. Northern Rock has led to a loss to the taxpayer of £100 billion that we will need to pay back). Fortunately I'm not tied down into a simplistic good-and-evil view of the world.
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#106 Robin
So far balhamu is in denial about the 'made up' statistics from the Halifax today on the state of the Uk housing market and the the numbers from Capital Economics, showing personal indebtedness has reached an all time high of 180% to household income and miles above the previous peak of 100% in 1991...
The Halifax says that house prices have decreased 15% year on year, I can believe that.
The latest official figures I can find (end 2007) show personal debt (mortgages + unsecured debt) at 155% of income (unsecured debt alone is at 24% of income). You still cannot provide me with a link for the Capital Economics numbers despite me asking for one (it seems that an increase of personal debt from 155% to 180% in the space of 6 months seems implausible). Until you can, I'm putting it in the same box as your "67% of Scots are in public sector employment".
Still, I look forward to receiuving balhmu's thoughtful list of 'alternative views of an economic catastrophe' at a posting near this one soon.
Your view is alternative enough thanks Robin.
The mainstream view (of every economist - experts) is that there is a global economic crisis and world recession going on (e.g. the US is currently experiencing negative growth too), caused in the main by US sub-prime debt and irresponsible behaviour by bankers. The UK Government let a housing boom grow out of control, and didn't follow their instincts to regulate bankers pay when it grew out of control or embark on the politically controversial re-regulation of the financial sector (I can name a certain group of politicians who some people on here carry a torch on who were complaining that regulation on the City was too much and leading to capital flight to less regulated financial centres).
The mainstream view is that Brown's response to the crisis has been a good one. Even Irwin Stelzer, not noted for his Labour-friendly outlook on life (and in the context of a very Labour-hostile article it has to be said, says this and notes that Osborne has made himself look a bit of a clown by suggesting that it isn't without having an alternative policy to solve the financial crisis - "Osborne can?t mount a credible attack on Brown?s theory of recession-fighting because the Prime Minister has it broadly right".
Robin, I would agree with you in areas where you are right (e.g. PFI-related borrowing means debt has been over 40% of GDP for a while now), but disagree with you where you are wrong (e.g. Northern Rock has led to a loss to the taxpayer of £100 billion that we will need to pay back). Fortunately I'm not tied down into a simplistic good-and-evil view of the world.
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I suspect a few (most?) of the tory types have "issues" with the fairer sex, no? ...
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#129 mr hardwinge
Please do not be so petty, and yah boo, sucks to you.
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Last thought on this thread. Wonder what those arch schemers Allie and Petie will dream up for tomorrow to deflect press interest in government activities on a broad front.
I seem to have got into some difficulty on post #122, and can't think why, unless some mod thinks my reference to Lord Mandy is somehow offensive.
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CEH @ 129 wrote
"Some anonymous internet mouth who's so inconsequential nobody would waste a bullet on needs to develop a sense of irony."
Exactly Chuckie...just like you.
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sagamix @140
Since when is Lord Mandy of Fey a Tory?
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Chuck E @ 129 wrote
"Some anonymous internet mouth who's so inconsequential nobody would waste a bullet on needs to develop a sense of irony."
What happened to all the calm zen palaver - 'let go' - 'relax' - 'I like to pick my nose and contemplate it (but not eat it like Gordon Brown does)' - malarky?
Somebody step on your karma? Or are you a split personality - the calm, pseudo-orientalist Charles E Hardwodge one minute, and the maniacal crazy Chucky the next?
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'The mainstream view is that Brown's response to the crisis has been a good one. Even Irwin Stelzer, not noted for his Labour-friendly outlook on life (and in the context of a very Labour-hostile article it has to be said, says this and notes that Osborne has made himself look a bit of a clown by suggesting that it isn't without having an alternative policy to solve the financial crisis - "Osborne can?t mount a credible attack on Brown?s theory of recession-fighting because the Prime Minister has it broadly right".'
I'm sick to death of this argument. Noone is denying that Gordon Brown is doing a good job of closing the stable door but it's all too late. The argument that we are better placed than many other other economies to deal with the credit crunch has also been blown out of the water by The IMF.
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#146 sicilian29
You have the ability to be reasonable and thoughtful though.
RobinJD argues that everything Brown does is wrong. Even if he would agree with the policy were a Conservative government were to implement it or Cameron to propose it.
A few months ago, the IMF were predicting we would not enter recession. I was told (rightly as it turns out) that the IMF were talking from the wrong end, and know nothing.
Given this, why should we trust what they say now?
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Nick, where are all the Tories gone, I know its embarrassing for them but complete retreat. I can smell the fear as they run poor disillusioned souls.
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148:
Are you telling me that a Labour win in a Scottish stronghold against a faltering SNP is likely to lead to The Conservative supporters on here running away from the likes of you with their tails between their legs? Fat chance grandy! If you take a brief look at the main BBC Have Your Say section on the subject of this by election you will find that the majority of people are very vocal in their views of what it actually means. Far from running away from the topic bloggers are flocking to give their views.
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149 sicilian
Now then Dutch dont get personal.
I can smell the fear in this post of yours, so all the tory faithfull are rushing out to try to justify their great disapointment are they,
Well to be honest with you I dont take much heed to these one post a blog characters their always dragged out at the beginning of every blog then the Tories put them back in the cupboard until the next blog. As the day proceeds the smell grows stronger.
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15!:
The stench of economic failure is one that will soon affect hundreds of thousands in terms of lost jobs, lost homes, lost marriages and even unfortunately in some circumstances lost lives. It overwhelms the smell of political defeat you refer to and will trump any hoped for revival or what The media commonly refer to as The Brown bounce. When the stuff hits the fan the game will be up.
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148:
I was responding to your retreat suggestion and you know it. The thing about fear is far fetched and only in your mind. If The Conservatives do manage to cock up the Election run in I'll be very disappointed yes but I will blame them for doing so, not the circumstances and will not run away and hide. It's not in my nature. As I've said before I live in a Conservative constituency, am contented with my Borough Council and because I planned for the future instead of frittering away my money on things I couldn't really afford I will be relatively untouched by the credit crisis. If the Government start fiddling about adversely with my pension then I will have something to say but it won't be printable on here.
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Did I just read "angsting"? Really? "angsting": both an ugly construction and angst as a verb. Perhaps it was a very late night or something?
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