Problem of inflation
Most people didn't need the governor of the Bank of England to tell them that inflation is a problem. For months now, people have been able to see for themselves - in their fuel bills, the price of the pumps and the cost at the supermarket.
Today's inflation stat and that letter however, do mark the return of inflation to the centre of British politics. Due anytime soon, a debate about how best to sort it and who is best placed to do it. Downing Street these days is full of briefings and discussions about the price of oil. Look hard at Gordon Brown's rhetoric and you can see a real change.
Yesterday the prime minister described the trebling of world oil prices as the most worrying situation in the world. Last week he talked of ending the globe's addiction to oil. This Sunday he travels to Jeddah, the capital of Saudi Arabia, for a summit with the king.
What's his aim? It is not a short-term increase in the supply of oil and therefore a cut in petrol prices, we're told. It is, instead, to reduce the significance of speculation in oil by City commodity traders.
He hopes that if the long-term supply of oil is more certain - a question for the producers like Saudi Arabia, and if the long-term demand for oil is more predictable - a question for the Chinese and the Indians - that then there will be less cash to be made from speculating on oil price hikes, speculation that can lead to actually increases in prices.
This is classic Gordon Brown, wrestling behind the scenes with something he genuinely believes is a major long-term problem. It will be fascinating to see what progress he can make in the weeks to come.
PS. Many people have been baffled by President Bush's banter with me at yesterday's news conference about whether I had a hat. Without going over very old ground you can click here to watch when the president's made a gag about my baldness before.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~55~RS~)
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This is all quite true, and the attempt to calm the Oil market is commendable, although how he expects to do this, I'm really not sure.
Hoewver, surely the cutting of Fuel Duty by say 20p, will give a massive boost to the economy and also reduce inflation through the reduction of transport costs.
Or am I missing something?
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So, if you won't to get "a head", get a "hat !"
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The current inflation is not caused by consumer demand, so raising interest rates will merely punish the victims of the current downturn.
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Nick says: "This is classic Gordon Brown, wrestling behind the scenes with something he genuinely believes is a major long-term problem."
Wrong! It is classic displacement activity: Brown isproviding the impression of doing something or heading in some meaningful whilst avoiding tackling necessary and productive tasks.
If he wants to tackle a potential long-term problem, then how about he gives us a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty so that we don't go down the road of 'ever closer union' and lose our sovereignty for the foreseeable future?
As for inflation: we all know from our personal experience that it is higher that the official 'low' 3.3% figure.
Furthermore, as more than 70% of the price of fuel is tax and duty (and VAT on top), the reason petrol prices are so high is totally a political decision. Oil could rise to $200 a barrel and it could still be cheaper than it is today if Brown didn't use it as a cash cow (under the convenient pretext of so-called green taxes).
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3 Agreed
Anyway, I think 3 - 4% is a lot better than I remember in January 1976 whenit was 23.7% under Denis Healey I believe.
And now we are in the middle of what we told a few years ago wouldn't happen again, something called "Boom and Bust."
Can't blame the Conservatives for either occurrence.
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Regarding hair loss, I do hope the battering Nick has taken on the Divisive Davis blog hasn't contributed to further loss
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Its a pity Gordon considers the problems the British people have right now to be beneath his great intellect.
If its long term problems/solutions that he believes that he is so good at, then how did we end up here after 11 years under his direction?
Now how big an unexpected windfall are the treasury getting from their %age of the high fuel (and other) prices?
Of course if any of his plans have an expected delivery date past two years, then he isn't going to be around to either complete them, or take the blame for them failing (like everything else he touches).
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Classic Gordon Brown wrestling behind the scenes?
He wrestled with Northern Rock for six months and it went bust.
He wrestled with nne reviews of the NHS and left the staff booing at the health minister.
He wrestled with three energy reviews but still hasn't commissioned a single power station and there are no sites at all for his 30 gigawatt wind power promise.
He wrestled with calling an election and bottled it.
He wrestled with Britishness and came up with an idea no-one liked; a British day and hanging out the Union flag everywhere like we were some banana republic.
The one thing he could do he won't do - cut the fuel duty...he's left us to wrestle with that one.
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I'd say the return of inflation to "world politics" would be more accurate but nevertheless a good blog. Can't wait for the amateur economists' views and no doubt their wisdom will eclipse that of the BoE MPC. In fact I see its already started at 3#, Hey Purpledog, why not give Mervyn King a call to see if he has a vacancy.
1# Sounds like the sort of suggestion that can be made when in opposition.
Lets cut all taxes AND spend more on services such as better support for armed services at the same time.
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4 ScepticMax
Am I right in believing that we pay VAT on the tax as well as the actual cost of the fuel.
If that is the case that is TRIPLE TAXATION. First on income, second on fuel FUEL TAX) and third VAT.
A total con.
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Many women find bald men incredibly sexy Nick, you lucky bugger.
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Brown is already heading off on the wrong path if he believes oil has a long term future. It hasn't.
It will either become too expensive to use - demand destruction - or too expensive to produce.. Either way it's future is limited.
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Everyone is aware that speculators have caused the problems with record oil prices. But it has taken immense political pressure before the PM decides to take action.
Too late.
Inflation is well above 3.3%, and is only kept low because goods such as TVs etc are low in price, but this is because retailers are desperate to sell.
It is a dangerous situation when people cannot afford to eat, heat their homes and travel to work.
The tabloids need to get away with lurid headlines about everyone boozed up, smoking and buying plasma TVs. The reality is that most people are not in that situation.
But it is politics that drives action from this Government. Perhaps if they were proactive they would not need to chase votes. Why can't politicians undertstand this?
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The only major long-term problem is Gordon himself.
He should have seen all this coming. After all, he was Chancellor for 10 years. What was he doing?.......apart from putting all his afforts into trying to prize Tony out of No. 10.
This is now geeting serious. People have started to lose their jobs and more homes are being repossessed by the month.
If Gordon really wants to help us, why doesn't he start by reducing the amount of duty we all pay through the nose to our Treasury for our fuel?
No? No change there then.
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5# check out some inflation history of 1980 as well, feel free to come back with results (21.9%) after being below 10% at the time of the 1979 election which I believe was the return of the Conservatives.
Just a bit of ballance to your comment.
But surely that's history, Why not quote the average inflation rate over the last 12 years of Labour Government, surely that would be slightly more relevent.
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8 robinJD
"He wrestled with Britishness and came up with an idea no-one liked; a British day and hanging out the Union flag everywhere like we were some banana republic."
Even then they got it wrong by saying it should be a holiday we all ready have, August Bank Holiday I think, which isn't even celebrated right across the UK.
Perhaps they though having an extra holiday would cause inflation in the Bank Holidays index.
Total incompetence.
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13 Neil Small
"It is a dangerous situation when people cannot afford to eat, heat their homes and travel to work."
Add to this that even when you try to do something that doesn't cost much you are increasingly stopped from doing it by ludicrous Health and Safety legislation.
They have to go.
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Surely Jedda is no more the capital of Saudi Arabia than New York is capital of the USA! What happened to Riyadh???
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"Classic Gordon Brown"
Do you mean by that "rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic", or simply "Fiddling while Rome burns"?
The suggestion that Gordon Brown can influence Saudi production of oil is lamentable.
Can Flash Gordon really get the King to do something that a real oil baron (who's just been in town) and is the President of the US cannot?
If the public finances were not in such dire straits Gordon could have helped the uk motorist by abolishing VAT on fuel, which has already had the ridiculous fuel duty already applied.
But, of course, classic Gordon Brown actually means tax and spend well beyond our nations means doesn't it?
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"Classic Gordon Brown"
Is that supposed to be a complement to him or an insult? It must be an insult, because comparing going to Jeddah to beg for help from desert despots vs. giving the economy some respite through fuel duty reduction to at least a European average... the latter would be a much better `classic' activity.
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Political anoraks always go on about no bald man has been PM - Winston didn't have much though. What a load of tosh! Who cares? Bush is a clown.
On oil I am the hyper type who is told 2020 is roughly when the carbon shortfall kicks in.
Discoveries are not that massive.
Oil company share prices are static so there seems to be confidence there.
Long term futures don't seem to be indicating disaster or we would have heard by now. There is short run speculation of course.
But to me the above don't add up. Either we are going to run out of oil or we are not.
Either way I would have thought Brown whilst taking necessary action to counter speculation skews should be accelerating the rush to renewables. Tax breaks for electric cars - and spend more on wind farms or the like?
Carrots are more popular than sticks as we head into a recession-ish period.
As the Captain on the Titatanic said "Get those deck chairs re-arranged!".
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As Gordon well knows, the cost of fuel is mainly tax. He could cut the price of fuel to under 50 p per litre.
As we pay higher and higher prices, his government obtain more and more revenue. Thanks to the fuel duty escalator, fuel duty goes up faster than the price of fuel.
If Gordon really cared about this issue, he should have been wrestling with it 11 years ago.
When he inherited from the Tories an economy in good shape, Gordon could have continued cutting costs and reducing borrowing.
Unfortunately he has been spending our money like a sailor on shore leave these past eleven years.
The result is that he cannot cut the fuel duty, even if he wanted to. Every penny is already committed to the huge spending and the PSBR is creeping up and up. Hence he is thrashing about, blaming everyone and anyone he can, in an effort to make us forget the important fact.
It's his fault.
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# 19 chrisbowie
It says so much that we think of Gordon and both mention the Titanic! National mood I suppose.
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"This is classic Gordon Brown, wrestling behind the scenes with something he genuinely believes is a major long-term problem. It will be fascinating to see what progress he can make in the weeks to come."
The idea that this is somehow "behind the scenes" is laughable. And let's not forget that idea of how to deal with long term problems is what got us where we are today.
Seeing a "real change" in his rhetoric is irrelevant because it is still just rhetoric. Hell say whatever he thinks will make us leave him alone to do what he wants.
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I fear that GB and AD are unable to reduce fuel duty by any significant amount because the coffers are empty.
Any such reduction must be by borrowing more a la the 'solution' to the 10p tax fiasco.
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15 eatonrifle
I think you are incorrect. In 1979 the Conservatives inherited awful inflation. It took several years to get it down.
Can I suggest you look at the statistics i
1975 average 24.2%, highest August 1975 26.9%
Then when records began properly, figures for December of each year
Records
1976 14.8 (23.7% in January)
1977 12.8
1978 8.0
1979 16.8
1980 14.0
1981 11.9
1982 6.6
1983 4.8
1984 6.3
1985 5.1
1986 3.4
As you can see inflation fell significantly during the Conservatives.
Sorry!!!
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17. At 11:44 am on 17 Jun 2008, mikepko wrote:
Add to this that even when you try to do something that doesn't cost much you are increasingly stopped from doing it by ludicrous Health and Safety legislation.
They have to go.
And now we have the Performing Rights Society trying to get one man businesses to pay for a licence if they listen to the radio. And that includes taxi drivers!
For large scale public performances, fair enough, but in a car?
And the latest news that the Cabinet will not receive any pay rises? Minor political posturing. Will the rest of the MPs do the same? This will not benefit any normal person.
But you cannot blame the politicians for everything. Try having a closer look at the civil servants who are running many things. That is where a clearout is needed.
Little things like this are gradually stopping people from enjoying life.
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On the BBC WEBSITE
"MINISTERS GIVE UP 2008 PAY RISE
Downing Street has announced that all Cabinet ministers will give up their pay rise for this financial year.
The government has also rejected a £650 a year above inflation rise for MPs for the next three years as recommended by Sir John Baker's review of MPs' pay. "
That should bring down inflation!!!
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This oil price hike is caused predominantly by financial institutions speculating on oil in order to repare the gaping holes in their balance sheets caused by their profligate and corrupt credit trading.
To suggest that the speculation is "adding" to the problem, rather than causing it, is naive.
The writing of Jim Williw offers some excellent independent insight, if perhaps a little brutal
www.goldenjackass.com/main5.html
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Eaton, you should do some real research, inflation peaked above 25% in 1975, under Labour.
However, even I can admit that it was not ALL labour's fault. There was an international oil crisis, the Nixon scrapping of the gold standard and the effect that had on the value of currency and other factors added to the union militancy that created the stagflation of the 1970's.Not ALL labour's fault, but Labour did NOT handle the situation it was in at all well though. Just like today.
As I said in my earlier post, the inflationary pressures are not caused by consumer demand. There are not hordes of people demanding more goods and willing to pay more to get them. It is not caused by businesses booming and paying their staff 25%+ pay rises. It is caused by the oil prices and the cost of grain, wheat, corn, rice rising in international markets, it is caused by Chinese products becoming more expensive as THEIR inflation and factory gate prices are rising, and it is caused by the value of currency being undermined by national debt.
Raising interest rates would exacerbate the problem, NOT fix it.
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27 Neil Small
I am a one man business working from home. My radio is on playing music.
QUESTION Should I be worried about a visit from snoopers?
ANSWER Very likely.
That's how the government got unemployment down. More snoopers, and minor civil servants.
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26#
June 1980 21.9%, presumeably thats why you chose December. Either way I did say that's history.
And the figures for the last 12 years please?
Dare you to quote them year by year? well?
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#15 take your own advice;
The indicies used to measure inflation have been consistently butchered by this bunch for their own ends: i.e. to meet their own rules, which then then break anyway and have to find other ways to stitch up the numbers.
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Gordon Brown is passing water in a zephyr, so to speak.
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The Torygraph's Real Cost of Living Index, which includes mortgages and Council Tax is currently 9.6%.
Now that is a number you can believe in.
Unlike the Governments fairy tale CPi/RPI indexes.
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If ministers are having to give up on a pay rise this year, I'm sure they'll find a way of gettIng some of it back through their expenses!
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Given that even the lowest estimate of current inflation is now 3.3%, and it's widely agreed that it will only increase in the near future, will we now see NHS staff renege on their pay deal as they stipulated they might?
It seems to me that NHS and other public sector staff are now expected to accept a pay cut in order to reduce inflation, whilst businesses are increasing prices so that they don't lose out.
Good to see the government using their own taxpayers as a bulwark against the failures of the market.
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32 eatonrifles
Agreed re June 1980. But you really can't say inflation was bad in in 1979 and a few months into the Conservatives it was worse because they were in government. Look at the trend. That is important.
These things take time
Regarding the last few years, Labour inherited a low inflation economy, gave control of interest rates to the BoE, and thus can't take all of the credit.
Sorry. You are clutching at straws me thinks!!!
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30# A ballanced and interesting reply, credit where its due, although i stand by the figure of 21.9% for the 1980 peak.
I think the type of inflation we're dealing with today is called something like "cost push inflation" in economic jargon. I guess that monetry policy fixes through interest rate increases dampens existing demand and brings down prices and wages to a point where demand picks up. Very complex things economies particularly when world factores are mostly driving things.
There is a well known qoute from (I think Eisenhour) who said "Will some one give me a one handed "economist" meanig he was tired of hearing his advisors say "on the one hand we could do this BUT on the other hand we could do the opposite"
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All very interesting, but shouldn't the real question be why the govenor of the Bank of England needs to send a letter?
Let's move on. Surely it should be an email in this day and age...
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Fuel tax
Fuel prices are a world wide problem. Cutting tax will just mean that price will go up and turn what is now tax into profit.
The Conservatives solution seams to be to use this kind of green taxes. To encourage good behaviour, but use this revenue to give tax cuts elsewhere.
Slight problem is that if people use less fuel as the tax is intended to do. That tax cutting revenue will disappear. What happens then?
Also this idea is a good description of Stealth Taxes as it cuts income tax and raises it in other areas.
So this conservative party will be better at running the economy how?
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38#
Would simply be quoting matters of fact rather than opinion to say what the last 10 years inlation was. You don't seem to want to. You're giving the BoE the credit for low inflation over the last 12 years but when it goes up now it becomes the Governments fault.
What a surprise!
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Just how does Gordon Brown plan to influence the oil market?
I think his "Summit" with the Saudis is an attempt to establish himself on the international stage; something he has failed to do to date.
I can't see them listening too much either as it's fairly obvious he won't be around for too much longer - even if David Davis is doing his best to make him look good!
He might find it useful to establish himself at home first - perhaps a few pence off fuel duty for a start...
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Nick,
I do not expect inflation to be significantly reduced following on from any visits GB does or does not make.
Nor do I expect the UK economy to be able to weather international financial crises as they arise. It is depressing to realise that Brown has so badly mismanaged the economy in the good times, that he cannot now do anything to assist the hardworking taxpayers when times are harder.
In their turn, the only response the BoE are able to make, because of GB's 3% rule, is to increase interest rates. Just what the economy needs (NOT).
Do you think he will accept any responsibility for this situation in the course of his travels and meetings? Not likely.
In my humble opinion, the sooner he goes for good, the better. I would even consider chipping in to cover the VAT on his fuel tax costs if that would help him make up his mind. However, I don't suppose I can expect a quick response to this offer.
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In my opinion Brown and Labour are finished now because the economy has gone sour and will not recover in time to help them at the next General Election.
The key thing is what happens next.
When I talk to people, most folk realise that 'Britain' is over and it certainly will be when the Scots have their independence referendum in 2010, post the General Election; when 'Dave' and his shower are in power at Westminster.
Older people I speak to have a clearer affinity with Britain , hardly surprising as some of them fought for this country - and they seem to blame Labour for the country unravelling, via the devolution process.
Younger people don't seem that bothered either way.
Nevertheless, it is going to happen, so I do smile when I see politicians like Brown and Milliband warbling on about 'Britain' this or that.
I guess the future political recasting of this country in just over two years into an independent England, Scotland and Wales is just too much of a quantum leap for them to even think about.
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Why is brown spending so much time on foreign policy?
Because that is what PM's do when they have failed on the home front.
What he says, and what he says he thinks while abroad is all a bit irrelevant - it isn't in his power to deliver.
At home - where he does have power to deliver - he fails to deliver because he has absolutely no self-confidence so will not make a decision.
'Behind the scenes' == 'Wait and see'
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People often remark on the UK's ability to punch above its weight in international affairs, but I hadn't realised just how influential we were. It is obvious from a number of posts here that the responsibility for the fuel protests in France, Spain, and many other places lies with our own Prime Minister. Quite amazing really.
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"Why is brown spending so much time on foreign policy?
Because that is what PM's do when they have failed on the home front."
The tradition action for leaders of countries when they are unpopular is well known.
After all actions speak louder than words - fortunately we don't have the military capacity to wage war ourselves but I assume that bases will be made available.
Inflation at the moment is increasing due to:
1) Increasing transport costs (AKA price of diesel/ oil) having to be passed on.
2) Inflation in China.
3) The pounds depreciation against the Euro and other non-dollar currencies.
4) Increase in basic food costs - see the increase in wheat and rice.
Now the only one the Government can directly affect is increasing transport costs.
It should also be noted, of course, that any reduction in oil price will be temporary.
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When the President made a gag about your baldness Nick, you should have said "well, nothing grows on a busy street". That would have shut him up!
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re 10: yes; you're correct; we do pay vat on the excise duty (ie the tax is taxed). VAT is payable on the retail-price, and the retail price includes excise duty.
So, they add excise duty to the real price, then charge vat on price-plus-excise-cost.
This means that when they increase excise duty they also increase vat implicitly, so we lose twice when they increase the excise amounts. Same logic applies to booze and cigarettes, and anything else that has excise duty applied to it.
Also, consider the fact that things like tv licences, car tax, and council tax are all paid out of your post-taxed income, so you effectively pay tax on your tax there too.
Also consider the fact that Brown's been doing massive private/company pension raids since 1997, so you're getting taxed on your post-taxed investment/pensions earnings even more than you used to.
When you go through the maths of all the different aspects that are taxed, it's often the case that most people on low to middle incomes have a real tax burden of around 70% to 80%, and a lot of people have a real tax burden above 100% and therefore need to get into debt just to stay alive.
Brown's advice there is to claim tax credit, but a lot of people can't do that for practical reasons (eg the self-employed) or they're simply not entitled to it. Single people on low incomes are the worst effected, often having a real tax burden of above 100%.
Brown's determined to make taxes regressive in nature (ie so that they hit the poorest hardest) because he doesn't understand the basic maths behind why progressive taxes (eg income tax) are fairer.
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Inflation is going to continue to rise in the near future owing to the huge increases in oil prices coupled to the dramtic rise in corn price that is being driven as I understand it by increasing use of corn for manufature of high fructose corn syrup (now used as a sugar replacement in many manufactured foods and beverages) and also as corn is now being used for biofuel applications. More expensive corn = more expensive animal feeds amongst others...
Food prices have dramatically increased recently and this will continue. Supermarkets the country over sit on the price of "known value items" like bread and milk and keep these costs artificially low. Stuff like cooking oil recently doubled in price which no doubt will drive more increases in costs in the fast food industry.
What does Gordon Brown do in response to this - he announces we need more nuclear power to combat the oil price rise. A policy that will at best have an effect next decade.
Can someone somewhere please bring the issue of HEMP to the front pages so that at the very least our Govt can have a proper debate about this wonderful plant.
Hemp contains almost no THC (the active bit in cannabis) so this plant can be legalised without affecting the drug laws of this country.
Hemp is the single fastest growing cash crop in the world - it has a multitude of industrial applications from producing biofuel, to paper , to fabric, to plastics, to animal feed. Hemp paper is better quality than paper from wood for example and uses less chemicals to process (= cheaper paper)
Why is this plant being ignored? Hemp could help break our complete dependance on oil - it could drive the British economy onto great things again and would within a year or so bring down the costs of rising food which would call a halt in some ways to the rising inflation figures.
Industrialised Hemp production will bring benefits to our economy much sooner than increased nuclear energy will and may alleviate some of the need for nuclear energy in the meantime.
It seems noone in the mainstream media anywhere is even mentioning HEMP. Why not?
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'Classic Gordon Brown' in three easy steps:
1 - Spend six months looking at a problem from every possible angle (AKA dithering).
2 - Make a decision that turns out to be a) wrong or b) right but too late.
3- Launch an enquiry.
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Dear Nick,
Brown Brown Brown, bush bush bush, blair blair and more of the same These men have created a world event called Terrorism, the new cold war, Terrorists should target the politicains instead of the people BECAUSE the politicians are targeting the Public with their insincerity, arrogance and ignorance of the voters.
" THEY ARE WORKING TO THEIR OWN AGENDA, to which the general public are excluded"!!!!
As far as they are concerned the voters can go to hell.
All this security is not to protect the public but the exact opposite, it is to protect them FROM the public, with LAWS that impede the Freedom of the public and suppressing them is their end game, so they can do exactly what they want. A POLICE STATE. the end result, The THIRD REICH IS BACK.
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Demand > Supply = Price Rise.
It's called capitalism, I think. Now we are finding out about the real price inelasticity of demand for oil.
The reality is that Gordon Brown is fiddling while oil burns, and he knows it. It's about being seen to do something when there is nothing you can really do.
He is powerless over the world price of oil and can't afford to cut taxes here. However I suspect he WILL cancel the fuel duty rise, due in October having been delayed in the Budget. The increasing VAT take means he can just afford this.
The Government in general and GB in particular must be seriously worried about the impact of the tanker drivers' strikes. They have reminded people, especially here in Devon, how impotent politicians really are and how much we all rely on our cars.
Neil Young said it all: "I'm a vampire babe... I need my high octane"
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#49
An alternative way to approach the baldness debate is to point out that production is high on fertile ground.
Perhaps it is safer for all concerned if journalists stick to facts rather than taking sideswipes at the leaders of other nations.
In the meantime, has the price of petrol fallen since GB announced his visit to Jeddah?
All the best, really.
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Gordon can't cut fuel duty - he has wizzed all our taxes up the wall and has no room to manoeuvre.
......... 'Caretaker-PM-Bean' has no alternative than to ineffectually 'wrestle'.
You have to wonder if Gordon wishes he'd managed a few things differently:
1. Selling off our gold reserves at rock bottom
2. Building and then frittering a vast 'war chest' of cash for seemingly no return
3. Forced us to rely on cars - by failing to invest on public transport
4. Spending his last few million on trying to buy Crewe and Nantwich
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Does anyone actually believe any of the numbers provided by the government anymore?
The inflation number is clearly totally bogus.
The education statistics have been fiddled so much the universities are now owning up to it.
No-one can give an accurate number for the cost of Northern Rock.
Nobody can give you an accurate estimate of the cost of PFI off balance sheet financing sitting on the government accounts.
The cost of the olympic games changes every week.
There has been a blank denial of any damage to the pension system everyone I know has had their estimated benefits slashed.
Unemployment is recorded at one million but three million are excluded because of invalidity benefits.
The numbers of troops in Iraq was supposed to be cut but now they're going back up.
Classic Gordon Brown? He can't even add up.
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"Spending his last few million on trying to buy Crewe and Nantwich" (#56).
More like £2.7 billion - and it was our money, not his!
Yes, one suspects that hindsight will see this as bad a decision as a politiican can make...
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42 eatonrifle
Sorry, had much better things to do, ie. out for coffee with my high fee-earning management consultant wife. Just put that in to irritate you.
Ok, well my 26.9% inflation in August 1975 under a Labour government is worse than your 21.9% in June 1980 under a Conservative government.
Anyway, lets have a look at 1993 to 2007. All of my figures are based on the Underlying Annual Price Index (RPIX) fro December (12 months to the end of the years)
1993 2.7 Conservative
1994 2.5
1995 3.0
1996 3.1
1997 2.7 Labour
1998 2.6
1999 2.2
2000 2.0
2001 1.9
2002 2.7
2003 2.6
2004 2.5
2005 2.0
2006 3.8
2007 3.1
So as you can see, Labour inherited a low inflation economy in 1997 and since then the BoE has set the rates, not Brown.
Compare that to 1979 when the Conservatives inherited a very high inflation rate that took years to work out of the system.
What really caused the problems in the UK was the 1970s when prices were going up by between 15 and 25% per year. Today's combined oil, food, heating increase pales into insignificance to a few years of those rises.
Add the fact that Labour have regularly changed the way the index is put together to massage the figures to make them look good. Ask any economist.
The good thing for all of us is that the inflation rate is currently low compared to the late 1970s when Labour were in power, and I believe had to as the International Monetary Fund for help as they had screwed up the economy. Does "Winter of Discontent" ring any bells? I remember it VERY well.
So on the statistical basis, even taking into account the last few years your argument does not stand up.
QED
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"This is classic Gordon Brown, wrestling behind the scenes with something he genuinely believes is a major long-term problem."
If this is classic Gordon Brown we can expect the same results of his wrestling behind the scenes in the treasury.
Selling of gold at historic low
Quiet destruction of millions of people's pensions.
Regulations that allowed banks to get into the situation they are now in.
The slow strangulation of the armed forces through too many wars and not enough funding through the treasury.
and then in the PMs chair...
The 10p tax scandal
The Northern Rock fiasco.
If this is 'classic Gordon Brown' then I can quite confidently predict that oil will go a lot higher than anyone expects and the shell strike next week will have a much greater impact than the last one.
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57 RobinJD
Correct about the massaged figures.
On holiday a couple of years ago we met a statistician employed by a large regional health trust. Over a couple of bottles of wine he opened up and told us how much he was being paid to ensure the figures given to the government met their targets.
Asked how he did it, he simply said, "they tell me what they want the figures to show and me being a statistician the rest is easy."
I asked how near the truth the figures and he laughed.
My wife then said"why don't you tell the press," to which his answer was "you must be joking. You know how much I earn. I couldn't earn that sort of money anywhere else. "
Just one health authority. Multiply by Heaven knows how many times and I think we can all see the problem when reality doesn't match the statistics!!!!
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10. mikepko wrote: Am I right in believing that we pay VAT on the tax as well as the actual cost of the fuel.
Correct the government currently adds fuel duty of
54 pence per litre for unleaded petrol
57 pence per litre for diesel
It then adds 17.5% on top of both the retailers price and the fuel duty
53p from the retailer + 57p fuel duty, add 17.5% Vat and you get £1.30 per litre. Tax on a tax.
Given the costs that have to come out of the 53p. (Retailing, transport, storage, refining etc) which dont change even if the cost of the raw material does. Just what can a reduction in the price of the actual oil achieve 60% of the cost of diesel is taxation.
So lets do a little role play here. You are the King of Saudi Arabia, GB kneels at your side and explains that he has a little problem. "Fuel is costing too much in my country" he pleads.
Your reply here.............................................
.....................................................................
Actually you might not need that much room
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BBC WEBSITE - POLITICS NEWS
PM hits back over civil liberties
Gordon Brown has defended the use of CCTV, ID cards and the DNA database - saying they protect civil liberties.
Now the debate is on, OPEN FIRE!!!!
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#59
"Today's combined oil, food, heating increase pales into insignificance to a few years of those rises."
this may well be true but surely the powers that be need to take action now to head off such dramatic future price hikes.
We are at - or very close to "Peak Oil" where the worlds demand for oil greatly outstrips supply with not enough reserves to cope with said demand.
The way the oil prce is going we have to break our economy out of the oil dependance otherwise in another few years time when the Oil issue *really* starts to bite it'll make the Winter of Discontent seem like a teddy bears picnic.
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mikepro (#59)
Many of us certainly remember the Winter of Discontent, but I'm not sure the parallel is that apt.
However, I'd guess that Jim Callaghan wishes he'd called an election earlier, when he had the chance, and not delayed (remind you of anything?) On such threads does history hang.
"Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this son of Govan"
Doesn't have the same ring to it, does it?
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I am not an economist, although the fact that I budget the household expenses proves I'm not completely hopeless. To my unsophisticated, simplistic ideas, it seems that inflation is actually only hitting the middle and working classes. The really wealthy, i.e. public company directors and bank CEOs, will receive even larger bonuses, golden handshakes and plain good oldfashioned handouts. Politicians and local council bigwigs will wallow in the public purse even deeper, whilst the incompetents who run trains, public transport and all the utilities will guzzle away. For them it will be business as usual, snouts in troughs.
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#61
why do you not surprise me?
because the Brown doctrine is centralisation and targets.
Eastern Europe made this mistake and ended up with thousands of corrupt officials lying about targets they had met.
Ken Livingstone ran the GLA in the same manner - he regarded it as failure to not spend the money. What a farcical waste of tax payers money.
This is the NewLabour conceit; every time they talk about 'hard working families' it's those same hard working families' taxes they are wasting on useless enquiries.
Ed Balls was caught saying 'so what' about this issue - another NewLabour conceit; they don't even care that you know.
Tis government has to be shamed out of office.
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#63 Mikepko
On a similar vein, did you see this one;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7458211.stm
I just love the Shadow Justice Secretary's comment right at the end....
"Public safety must come first, and any suggestion that human rights laws could be an impediment to sensible and necessary safeguards must be challenged decisively."
Those darn Human Rights, always getting in the way!
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Our Nick scrubs up well says my wife.
There you have it Nick!
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Nick
I've just noticed that Caroline spelman is to face an enquiry into the "nanny" affair, and that such an enquiry is exceptional. Well, I thought, there must obviously be more to this than I imagined. Then later I read that it was Caroline Spelman HERSELF who asked for the enquiry. This must be one of the most disingenuous pieces of journalism I've come across in quite some time. I hope whoever it is is proud of their achievement, since it got prominence but at a cost of showing up the uglier side of BBC journalism.
Then, at the next blink of an eye, up comes another report, that Hazel Blears has lost official files.
Now, it all adds up. Neat distraction from the real story.
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66 Angela the Mighty
I budget and am careful too, even though we are comfortable. Both my wife (vicar's daughter) and I were brought up to be careful with money due to the lack of it when we were young.
Luckily we have a small mortgage started in 1988 but with a reasonable down payment.
Other than that no debt.
Run two cars, one old banger, but know that 45-55mph and 2000rpm are the most efficient for diesels. It amazing how much fuel you can save by driving carefully,
Cook everything from fresh from ingredients from local suppliers - farmers market, farm shops, etc. Only use Tesco for things we can't get locally and booze. This saves lots of money compared to ready meals, etc, and puts money into the local economy. Bake my own bread, really cheap this way. Use all of the vouchers we can to save money.
Talking of economy, use Economy 7 for all clothes washing, water heating and lots of cooking, casseroles, etc, that can be cooked overnight. No dishwasher or tumbler drier which use masses of electricity.
Also turn everything off at night except the fridge-freezer. A rated.
We have a very old, over 20 years, oil boiler that we need to replace this year for a much more efficient one that will reduce both our bills and carbon footprint.
Also looking for a small woodburner for our living room so that we can use much less oil and have a warm downstairs in the morning. Lots of "free" wood where we live, washed op on the river estuary, etc.
Why do all this? First so we van put away a bit more for our retirement which would have been better if Brown hadn't raided it.
But second, it makes real sense not to waste hard earned money.
This is a lesson the the government should learn. Find hard working solutions rather than throwing money at problems.
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70 Terry
Thanks for pointing out about Hazel. It begins
"Restricted files lost by minister
A personal computer holding sensitive documents relating to defence and extremism has been stolen from Hazel Blears' constituency office in Salford.
The theft may mean the communities secretary has broken rules on the handling of restricted government information, the BBC has learned. ..."
Regarding Caroline Spelman, even as a Conservative I don't really like her. For me, she is in the same category but not quite as bad as Dawn Primorolo - condescending, school prefect, talks down to everyone, both above and below her.
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Mikepko, who do you think you are kidding?
Why is it convenient for you to miss the years 1987 - 1992?
We had the biggest economic disaster in them years, all thanks to Tory Govts. and all that when there were no oil and food inflation the likes we have at the moment.
Some of my friends nearly committed suicide in them days cause THEY LOST EVERYTHING, including their families.
Hypocrisy or what?
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73 onlywayup
Had you asked me I would have done, but I was answering etonrifle's question, not one that has just arrived on the blog. He wanted to compare 1979 and 1997.
By your post it seems that I was correct.
I was self-employed from 1987 - 1992, and still am, and never out of work although things have been tight from time to time.
It looks like we may be getting a repeat of that period sadly for which the Conservatives will not be to blame.
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73 onlyway up
Ok, here we go.
Underlying Inflation on the same basis as before (December of the year)
1987 4.0
1988 5.1
1989 6.1
1990 9.0
1991 5.8
1992 3.1
Nowhere near as bad as 1975 (Labour) and 1980 (I'm being very generous here as the Conservatives had just come to power, Conservatives0.
And quickly back to a low figure. For labour it was year after year at over 10%.
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How is Hazel Blears getting on with the price of petrol ?
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The subject is strictly speaking inflation. Now with so many discussing how they economise and keep household expenses down, I will refer to inflation in a medical sense. My blood pressure has become inflated and I am very angry. I must weigh my words, lest Faceless Moderator banishes me once again to those dark hallways and corridors where naughty schoolchildren lurk.
My anger is directed at Hazel Blears, that puppet-like lady (Judy in Punch and Judy?)who it seems has broken regulations and allowed sensitive material to vanish from her office. Now, the delicate question is this - was it through incompetence or something more sinister?
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I know. I hijacked the thread because I actually found the piece pretty annoying and had to let it out. No matter who it related to. The way the piece was written was not good, in any way shape or form. I started to feel the same way about the theft of Hazel Blears' laptop (lost is not the same as theft), until I saw that it may have contained information on it which should not have left Government offices.
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77/78
In addition to the information not being authorised to be in her office, we might wonder if any of the party workers in her office had access to the information. I take it was password(s) protected, but who had the passwords(s).
I'm sure she will just smile her smarmy smile and say its not as important as Caroline Spelman paying her nanny 10 years ago.
Distinct lack of Old Labour posters this afternoon, don't you think?
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PS
All this excitement with Spelman, Blears, inflation, etc and not a word from Nick.
Any bets on what his next blog will be?
My money is on
"UPROAR IN THE COMMONS AS BROWN SUGAR WITHDRAWN AS ECONOMY MEASURE
Continues....
MPs today protested that brown sugar has been withdrawn from all Houses of Parliament tea rooms and restaurants as an economy measure.
Alastair Darling, who being a frugal Scot only drinks tea with white sugar, commented,
"We owe it to the Country to set an example. This is among our best policies to reduce inflation."
Later this afternoon, a Liberal MP had his drinks subsidy removed because he used HIS OWN brown sugar to sweeten his coffee. A government spokesman said
"there is a precedent for this as we currently refuse to treat NHS patients who pay for their own drugs."
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28 mikepko. ministers give up 2008 pay rise.
What year was it that the tories gave up their pay rise, trying to remember.
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82
I see that David Davis' website is now up and running.
www.daviddavisforfreedom.com
Just had a look and it looks pretty comprehensive.
Interesting times ahead!
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Mikepko @63.
Brown is used the lame excuse of 'public opinion' to push through the '42 Days'.
Strange he doesn't take that same 'public opinion' into account when he denied us the right to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
Goose... gander....
Heck, this lame duck will soon be cooked.
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If the best that the cabinet can do at this time of doom and despondency is give up their pay rise we are doomed, all doomed.
Perhaps they will vote themselves a great big rise in expenses to make up for it!!!
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News - Quote - Oil prices set a new record on 13 consecutive days over the past two weeks. They have now multiplied six fold since 2002, compared with the fourfold increase of the 1973 and 1974 "oil shock" that ended the world's long post-war boom - unquote
Remember the petrol rationing in all of Europe in them days Mikepko?
Is that why you hide the truth as to why there was high inflation in those years? Is that why it is convenient to hide the fact that in between the figures for the Tory years you omit to mention the shocks that we had 13, 14, and even 15% inflation with 15% interest rates? Did you not have friends that lost everything in them days? We had people working full time on a £1.45 an hour in them days. Is that why the Tories were against the minimum wage, because they were/are the defenders of the poor?
What about the 3.6 million unemployed that Labour inherited? The old age pensioners being found frozen to death because of the misery! The National Health of a third world country! The shambles of the railway network, not forgetting the privatisation. The billions the Tories racked from the North Sea Oil pumping at full capacity, and which accounted for over 10% of Lawson budgets. Have you forgotten that as well Mikepko?
Amnesia or what?
Read the following and learn:- quote
BBC economics editor – Evan Davis says:
The painful parliaments are those where we have to reassess our whole view of the strength of the economy.
For example, the problem in 1992 derived not from a slowing economy. It derived from the fact that by 1992 we realised the late 1980s boom had been a temporary aberration, and not the permanent turnaround we had thought.
Once we sat down it became clear that the rise in government borrowing was not a blip caused by a recession; it was STRUCTURAL.
The economy was simply not as strong as we had been thinking for several years and consequently it would never generate as much tax as we needed.
So taxes had to be raised - or spending cut back. – unquote
We got both, tax hikes and massive cuts on an unprecedented scale.
Good night Nick.
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grandantidote @81 wrote:
"ministers give up 2008 pay rise."
By what measure - or target achievements - do ministers believe they deserve even consideration of a pay rise?
They are, literally, the architects of virtually all the miseries we currently suffer - and will continue to suffer for the foreseeable future until this miserable lot is booted out of office.
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# 47 jimbrant, so Gordon Brown is responsible for the fuel shortage in France and Spain. I was'nt aware that he's responsible for any fuel shortage anywhere but then according to the incredible manic Tories on this blog he's probably responsible for the earth quakes in China and Japan as well as the monsoons sweeping the east, get rid of GB and the World will suddenly recover then we can all bath in the sunlight with Dave Gideon and perhaps if he's lucky Saint David. life will be so wonderful then. Then suddenly we will all wake to what dangerous Dave the policy free defender of the faith and the Eton boys club are going to do,God help us.
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According to the BBC: "He [Brown] said terrorists wanted to destroy British "freedoms" and that must not be allowed."
Of course not, he wants to be the one to destroy them.
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# mikpko, Here we go again mike I met a man that told me that this was happening and then I met this lady who told me something else, you really are a Tory are'nt you tall tales and no substance. remember the story you told us about pater well perhaps he should have done a little more.
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85
Guess you don't like me then.
All you asked me to do was look at the inflation figures for 1987 -1992. Done.
Had you asked me about the economic situation in that period I could have said the same as Evan Davis, or pretty much.
The thing is once a government mucks things up there is no way back. 1979, 1997 (should have been 1992 but Kinnock was unelectable) and now 2008.
The news for Brown gets worse and worse daily, Labour is seen as dead in the water by the majority, and only "dyed in the wool" Labour supporters, of which there are fewer and fewer if the Crewe election is anything to go on, believe that Labopur can win the next election.
I admire your tenacity. Good luck, you need it.
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# 86 sceptic max typical Tory reply all rhetoric and no answer,try again,
Write a hundred times, "I must answer the question"rhetoric will not do sceptic, Sorry.
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I'm at a loss, one minute global warming is a problem and the way to sort it out is to reduce the use of fossil fuels so lets have green taxes, next oil prices go up and Gordon Brown jets off to Jeddah to ask the Saudis to increase production.
He might be better if he stayed at home and read "Squandered" by David Craig "How Gordon Brown is wasting one trillion pounds of our money" then started ensuring that we the hard pressed taxpayer started getting value for money from our taxes.
He could ask why we have more admirals than ships in the Royal Navy and why it would have been cheaper to buy new Chinook Mk2's rather than spend more modifying the Mk3 back to Mk2 spec. But then this NuLabour lot have never been into getting value for the taxpayer, they seem more interested in punishing the hard working families for having it (unless of course you are an MP and you can isolate yourself from the consequences of you own tax policy).
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87 grandantidote: "so Gordon Brown is responsible for the fuel shortage in France and Spain. I was'nt aware that he's responsible for any fuel shortage anywhere"
No, neither am I. Irony, old chap, irony.
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Sorry GA,
Which of my posts are you referring to. It must be the statistician (have I spelled that correctly?).
Absolutely true, and most posters know it.
In addition, as I think I have already posted, ask my wife about the person she had to hire at about £25 - 30k per annum just to supply housing data to the government. Once she got into the work they moved the goalposts and wanted the first few months recalculated so that all of the figures looked better. And when the new figures weren't in-line with requirements the goal posts moved again, with all the work that entailed.
And the result, the employee plus my wife were submerged under figures that meant absolutely nothing other than the government "proving" that they were doing a good jbb when everyone knew it wasn't true. And the rest of my wife's work suffered causing stress and time off work because of it.
Just post your real email address and I'll get her to email directly with the truth about Labour statistics.
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93 jimbrant
"Irony"
Isn't that something that was iron (like Brown's iron fist) but is now just rusting and falling apart?
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Interesting how people feel a drop in duty will ease prices at the pump. As most of the suppliers claim they lose at the pump under the current system, they will simply raise their prices to to compensate for any drop in duty.
This is not a defence of fuel duty, it is clearly too high, just a reflection on the nature of capitalism. The suppliers know what we are willing to pay (albeit under duress), and therefore have little incentive not to increase the prce of their product as duty is lowered...
Of course doing something sensible like linking the price before duty a supplier is allowed to charge to the price of crude would be illegal under free market rules. Without this I would rather the Government got my money than Shell, however badly they spend it!!
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96
I would prefer tp only pay VAT on the cost of the fuel and not the government tax.
Taxing tax is rather stealthy wouldn/,t you agree. I'm sure that with today's computer technology (obviously not those computeres developed for the government like th Health system) that would be possible.
Then the government would get the proceeds on the rise due to oil prices.
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85 and 90#
Onlywayup. Nice one. To quote from Dad's Army "they don't like it up em".
By the way Mikepko "QED"
or don't tell me Evan Davis is anothe one of the BBC's Labour leaning journos
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96# the method of fuel taxation hasn't been introduced under Labour its been the same for Donkeys years in terms of VAT on Fuel Duty (another oversight).
You seem pretty knowledgable with figures Mike, care to tell us the price/litre if the fuel escalator had been kept on?
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#59 mikepko. Well Mike their all out today I musnt be to derogatry or they'll pull my post we've got one of them back on the postings.
You wrote " sorry, had much better things to do, ie, out with my high fee earning management consultant wife" Well that really does'nt surprise me someone has to be high fee earning for you to have the time type 16 posts on this blog today.
I see in 71 you give us a day to day window into the life of mikepko, with out wanting to be rude it sounds pretty boring stuff. Especially as you have your own business and you say your wife is a high earning management consultant. Being as you live so frugaly what on earth possessed you to go out for coffee you could have saved a few pounds by making a cup at home.
You say you remember the winter of discontent well I do as well and it was bad and it took Neil Kinnock to sort out the miscreants responsible, I also remember the eighties and nineties when interest rates were rocketing and thousands of people were made homeless ,businesses were going to the wall at a rate of knots, thousands were out of work and appearing on TV on a daily basis telling how they had applied for forty or sixty jobs with no success, highly qualified people applying for work road sweeping and on the bins, I remember yougsters hanging around on streetcorners, no work so they would steal cars go joy riding then set fire to them out of sheer boredom I remember Lamont telling us that unemployment was a price woth paying, and I remember 25% Vat.
I dont remember seeing anything to even compare with those events in the last eleven years, I have heard so called experts on TV over the last eleven years telling us how Gordon Brown has got it wrong and how Tony Blair was confronting another disaster but none of it came to fruition, they came out as the ones who were right.
Please dont give me any guff about the war ,thats a question of what we each think and I also remember that the conservatives were more Gung Ho! about going to war than labour. people in this country now are better off than they have been since I can remember and I'm knocking on a bit, look around better homes better cars better dressed better schools hospitals more nurses doctors and policemen minimum wage free Tv free bus passes and winter fuel allowance, I could go on but you dont want to hear it or you will deny it with some glib remark. the only problems we have in this country is the same as every other country and thats the massive increase in fuel and also in food prices neither has anything to do with the government.one rather ridiculous remarked about eat or heat absolute rubbish we are constantly being told that we eat to much and were all to fat, crazy.
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99 Eaton rifle. Spot on that was to be my next post.
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98/99
eatonrifle
You obviously have an inferiority complex.
QED - quod erat demonstrandum or in plain English, as is shown
I have no idea about Evan Davis' political leanings. From the Today programme he seems to be unbiased. It was onlywayis up who quoted him, not me.
I didn't say that fuel taxation was introduced by Labour. I only fail to see why VAT is charged on the fuel tax since is obviously isn't adding any value as suggested by the name, ie. Value Added Tax.
Tend to think your two posts are rather clutching at straws for a failed and discredited government.
As for "they don't like it up em," one out of ten, Must try harder.
Teacher
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Nick,
Baldness, even George Bush knows that grass can't grow on stony ground.
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103 GA
I've told you before about long rambling missives without paragraphs. Makes it very hard to read, so I haven't bothered.
Did scan the first few lines however.
Remember the phrase "look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves." I do. Many who haven't and have spent money they don't have will suffer. That is life today.
Lunchtime coffee with friends breaks up a very boring day. Only posts from you make it interesting. Joke.
As for my posts, you must be very sad counting the number. I know you go back through every thread to try to make your points.
Regarding running my own business, broadband allows me to work and watch the blog and the stockmarket at the same time. I hope you notice my posts are pretty short - I don't have time for anything longer. Post short and often is my motto, and throw in a bit of humour where possible.
I know things were very difficult in the late 80s/early90s and it affected my friends. But life moves on, for some people anyway.
By the way, I notice you haven't given me your email address. I suppose it makes sense as you would be inundated with emails from other posters. That's why you have the name grandantidote and not your real name.
My name, Mike Pelesko.
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85 Only wayup posted re Mikepko
"You omit to mention the shocks that we had 13, 14, and even 15% inflation with 15% interest"
I get fed up with repeating this but once more again. Under labour interest rates were as high as 25% and you yourself omit to mention the income tax that caused the brain drain.
Before you bark on about black Wednesday another area of retreat for nu lab supporters that was a tea party compared to Nulab's Northern rock.
Hazel Blears should be disciplined but she won’t of course and will be back on QT next week lecturing us all as normal.
Kind regards
Baron Von Ripwinkle De Parkbench
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.....and by the way Labour have over 3 million unemployed now they are just hidden as something else. Bit like all the statistics quoted by this government all just Full of holes.
Suppose you remember the great advertisement in the late 70's "labour isn't working".
Wel labour still isn't working.
EU Referendum now please
Kind regards
Baron Von RipWinkle De Parkbench
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105 Baron
Sorry to say this but I think you have confused inflation with interest rates when you mention over 25%. That was August 1975.
Thought I'd say it before the Old Guard get in first.
Old history
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#22
"As we pay higher and higher prices, his government obtain more and more revenue. Thanks to the fuel duty escalator, fuel duty goes up faster than the price of fuel.
If Gordon really cared about this issue, he should have been wrestling with it 11 years ago."
Nine years ago,Brown ended the use of the escalator, introduced by the tories in '93. Since then fuel duty tax has increased less than inflation
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The problem is that Mr Brown has no way out here. Certainly there are things beyond his control and he cannot be all to blame.
BUT is he not the man who was the "Iron Chancellor"? He has been in charge of the countries finances for 11 years. I think all can agree on that.
Some of those who speak vehemently in his favour, such as in post 100 talk of the last few years being not so bad. I have to say some of those thing are raising their ugly heads again - indeed are pretty much totally visible.
But the real problem is if those in favour of Mr Brown are right he should be able to do something to ease the burden on us. He should be able to cut taxes and maintain funding of our public services.
How? Well we should have something in the tank (excuse the pun) from all the good years so we just borrow a bit and help the public out of ........ oh dear.
The government tell us not to borrow too much, yet it has failed to listen to its own advice (they don't even listen to themselves - let alone us). They are now facing the embarrassment of the EU telling them they have made a pickle of their finances with OUR money.
Iron Chancellor indeed.
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VAT was never 25% under the tories, Inflation was never up to 15% in the 90's and interest rates were never up to 15% either except for a few hours on Black Wednesday when we withdrew from the ERM and the interest rates came down again without ANY loans being effected.
By all means people critisise the tories, but please do so from the real world, using facts. When you have to lie to justify your arguments, the arguments are no longer just, or credible.
The fact is that, for a number of reasons; including the de-linking of the dollar to the value of gold, the Yom Kippur war, the plummeting value of the dollar making the price of oil explode (as the value of the dollar goes down the relative value of oil goes up) AND the capitulation to union power in the UK, a prices policy and incompetent economic mis-management all combined to create the stagflation of the 1970s' the price of correcting this (rightly or wrongly) was massive unemployment in the 1980's. In the 1990's under the tories the economy improved massively, with low interest rates and low inflation and rapidly falling unemployment. Labour inherited the best economic situation of any incoming administration in a century.
They handed over runing of the economy to the bank of England and sat back and overtaxed the profit of UK PLc. that's it! Then Brown squandered this great inheritance and then lied in his statistics to cover it up. Real inflation is now running at at least 9.5%.
That is the facts. Labour have never run a succesful economy, at least the tories did after they were freed from the universally wanted (by all mainstream parties at the time) ERM.
The economic competence of the last 11 years was NOT economic ocmpetence at all. The BoE ran the economy and the bank only did what banks always do. A boom based on bad lending followed by bust.
That was the obvious and only likely result of allowing a central bank run an economy.
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One of the basic causes, I believe, for inflation, is the complete lack of ethical judgement when valuing people. At my local council, the leader, who incidentally is a Nat Lib, stated that he is fully entitled to a high salary and expense allowance. He explained that to have the 'best people' top dollar must be paid. Actually he said this rather more elegantly than I have stated here. The elderly, in this rich area, are cared for by underpaid staff, either in miserable care homes or by skimpy home visits. Most of this staff are untrained, many are dedicated souls, but many too are unskilled, at the best thoughtless, at the worst unkind. Obviously, senior council leaders and members are more highly valued than those who wipe the bottoms of the frail and helpless. What a lousy society this has become.
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I should have used the term Liberal Democrat for this distasteful character.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
111 Angela
I think this is summed up as "knowing the cost of everything and the value of nothing."
Politicians are very good at this "management skill."
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111 mightyangela: "What a lousy society this has become."
I rather agree with the substance of what you say, though one could point to other and contrary examples of people and situations.
But what do you imply by "has become"? Can you point to a time or place where it was better? I could point to several where this one was (and others were and remain) worse.
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113
Sorry, forgot the punchline. Read on from FOURTH YORKSHIREMAN
FOURTH YORKSHIREMAN:
Right. I had to get up in the morning at ten o'clock at night half an hour before I went to bed, drink a cup of sulphuric acid, work twenty-nine hours a day down mill, and pay mill owner for permission to come to work, and when we got home, our Dad and our mother would kill us and dance about on our graves singing Hallelujah.
FIRST YORKSHIREMAN:
And you try and tell the young people of today that ..... they won't believe you.
ALL:
They won't!
Sounds familiar.
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Steve_Way @96 wrote:
"Without this I would rather the Government got my money than Shell, however badly they spend it!!"
Shell earn their money. If you don't like their products, buy elsewhere - there are plenty of alternatives.
This government, on the other hand, just taxes us - and does not provide anything like value for money in return. Funnily, I can't find an alternative government anywhere no matter how hard I search....
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To Jimbrant #115
Dear Jimbrant,
There was a time when people cared for the elderly within the framework of the family. The workhouse or Home was for those so unfortunate that they either had nobody to care for them or their family was selfish in the extreme.
There is an old saying "One mother can care for 10 children, 10 children cannot care for one mother."
I can recall my grandmother, an invalid, cared for at home by the family. Her bedside was where we gathered to play cards, since she was an ardent gambler. Although often in extreme pain, her life was made as normal as possible, and during the bombing in London, she would complain loudly as she was carried down into the shelter.
This same grandmother had cared for her elderly mother and father-in-law in the same house in her earlier years. The tradition of looking after one's own now has seemed to die out, together with so many other aspects of family life.
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#118: mightyangela : You must be even older than me (if I can make so ungallant a comment)!
Certainly there were aspects of life decades ago that were better than they are today, especially in regard to the extended family. I can also remember the war, and the feelings of comradeship that seemed to permeate life. My father looked back to the depression in the 20's as a similar period when his bit of 'society' seemed more cohesive, and people looked out for one another.
But I would argue that those individual memories mask societies that were nothing like as fair as ours is now. Family life might have been better in many senses; but kids were hungry, healthcare was unaffordable for many, your job depended on how well you got on with your boss, my socialist family was deeply racist and the tories much worse, and you were lucky if you were still at school after 14 or 15.
I hated it when McMillan said 'You never had it so good', but he was probably right at the time, and it is certainly true of today in my opinion. At least we have a PM who believes that there is such a thing as society!
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Re: 119
Dear Jimbrant, I do not find your comment about age ungallant. Unlike today's ageist society I wear my years as a badge of honour for surviving the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. There now, I sound a right old f**t!
Seriously, I agree with some of your points. Both my parents left school at fourteen, due to financial needs, but they left fully conversant with the 3Rs, and wrote beautifully, without punctuation or spelling errors. Without computers they were able to account, and with libraries and radio they continued widening their education. Today, children are leaving school at 17 or 18, completely illiterate, and too many public libraries have become repositories for chicklit and mum/baby coffee meetings.
Regarding healthcare, there was some wonderful advances in the beginning, but today the NHS has become a tool of managers, corrupted by greed and targets. The original founders of the NHS must be spinning in their graves. Work is another precarious aspect of modern life. There is NOT the work there was for the manual and nonprofessional workforce. No apprenticeships, save the rubbish called NVQs, and they are limited. Rather than getting on with the boss, one has to play along with what is called HR (Human Resources), and bullying is high on the agenda. Antiracism, has become a bit of a joke. Originally, laws were passed to stop this vile practice, but today the laws are exploited by greedy opportunists, who bring disgrace on their fellows, people the laws were created to protect. I know it is so easy to view the past with rose-tinted glasses, but I still sincerely believe things are worse today.
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MikePko
thanks for the correction. Thinking about one thing and wrote something else.
Latest BBC headlines show ..
Blears PC loss - officials blamed
Seems like the first move to start to try and shift the responsibility away from Ms Blears.
Kind regards
Baron VonRipwinkle De Parkbench
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104# Got to say Mike its a bit rich from you to say that "life moves on, for some people anyway" when your first post at 5# imediately harped back to inflation in the mid 70s!!
pot and kettle?
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117# "shell earn their money"
got to say I fail to see what they've done to earn all the extra windfall profits they're currently making.
No extra effort or extra costs just profit which frankly shoud be well taxed.
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Oh dear - this all sounds like my son! When things are going well....all credit to him. When things are going badly..."not my fault". Surely the flood of low cost imports from China played some part in the low inflation over the past decade?
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#120 mightyangela : We are obviously not going to agree very much; perhaps as I am a former Director of HR you wouldn't expect it!
I don't actually recognise your descriptions of education, healthcare, or employment. You are right about apprenticeships, but something is being done about that by government (because business usually can't see beyond next week's balance sheet).
I can't let your comments about the NHS pass. I have had more to do with that organisation than I would ever have wanted; amongst other things I lost my son to leukaemia two years ago, and now have my wife well down the path of dementia. In both those cass the NHS has performed wonderfully well in all its forms, from a top international centre in London to my local PC Trust and the community provision located in our shiny new community hospital.
You can't necessarily project from the individual experience to the general, but I have met very few people who have actually been treated in the NHS who would make the sort of criticisms which you do. Perhaps you have your own personal experiences which colour your judgement, as do I; but the available evidence is more on my side of the argument I think.
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When I started working 50plus years ago, I had a wily old boss seen it all and not done but new how too. He said to me three things that I have remembered and worked through out my working life, and now can say it worked
Save up for your pension
You will be remembered by your failure's not your success.
Make as many mistakes as you like as long as they are all different.
Inflation has been with us all my working life, we just have to manage and live with it. Governments both Tory and Labour have tried to controll and all blame outside forces.
None have ever succeeded, may be tinkered but never in any impactful way, GB now talking to the King of the Oil will that work...No so Gordon you are making a mistake and have not learnt from history.
Blair will be remembered for Iraq, a failure not his successes...... can't think of anything that he was successful at ....O'yes saving for his pension
Brown no successes all failures and in only 9 months . Don't touch anything Mr Brown the magic was has gone close the door and keep your head down it will be better for all of us if you do nothing. You were lucky as chancellor Ken Clarke left you a legacy and you spent it.
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Gordon Brown often assumes he is far-sighted, with long-term objectives in mind.
In that case, how many power stations have been built, or even commissioned, in the last decade?
It has been evident for more than a decade that global fuel demand would increase.
You can't blame Brown for rises in oil and gas prices.
You can blame a government that has done nothing to develop energy generation in the UK.
Brown endorsed the sale of Westinghouse, the UK's key nuclear development company, to Japan a few years back. Now he says that nuclear is a real option.
Long-term vision?
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Macmillan, who has been quoted above, had a habit of delivering prophetic sayings. "Selling off the family silver" was one, when nationalised industries were privatised and we were told there was no need for a manufacturing base in this country and that we could survive on "service industries". I may be thick, but I could never see how that could work.
I think it is our high dependence on other countries making and producing things for us which has weakened out economy over the years. Perhaps if Jimmy Reed had been successful in saving the Goven shipyard, or more than a few enterprising miners had suceeded in working coal mines as co-operatives, or if we still produced our own steel for the railways, or if all the valuable property of the railways had not been sold off to line the pockets of the lawyers and the speculators and had been invested in transport instead.... I could go on and on. But I believe the mistakes of the past have caught up with us and are exacerbated by an overdependence on a fuel which is in short supply so fuel crops have replaced food crops in some world markets creating a greater problem.
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Macmillan, who has been quoted above, had a habit of delivering prophetic sayings. "Selling off the family silver" was one, when nationalised industries were privatised and we were told there was no need for a manufacturing base in this country and that we could survive on "service industries". I may be thick, but I could never see how that could work.
I think it is our high dependence on other countries making and producing things for us which has weakened out economy over the years. Perhaps if Jimmy Reed had been successful in saving the Goven shipyard, or more than a few enterprising miners had suceeded in working coal mines as co-operatives, or if we still produced our own steel for the railways, or if all the valuable property of the railways had not been sold off to line the pockets of the privatisation lawyers and the speculators and had been invested in public transport instead.... I could go on and on. But I believe the mistakes of the past have caught up with us and are exacerbated by an overdependence on a fuel which is in short supply so fuel crops have replaced food crops in some world markets creating a greater problem.
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Like heroin, the users of petrol will pay whatever it takes to buy it. some people even deliberately and pointlessly use too much of it.
If measures are not taken to reduce the demand for petrol, they can charge whatever they like and inflation will continue.
Even better the governments around the world are there to take the blame. cut taxes and the profits will fill the gap. as they know how much you are willing to pay.
There is also food inflation. Lets look on the bright side. More walking and less food will do you good.
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With regards to unemployment - in 1997 unemployment fell by 25% - from 1,868,206 to 1,391,380. Labour took over in May 1997 with a pledge to continue Tory spending plans (other than a £5 billion raid on pensions) for two years.
Since any economic policy takes time to take effect (up to 2 years) one can hardly have Labour take credit.
http: www.parliament.uk Commons lib research rp98 RP98-010.PDF
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inflation is going to be a problem for the united kingdom and the united states in the near future...
thanks nick for bringing up this important topic.
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122 eatonrifle
I think you are trying to wind me up, but that is my forte and won't work.
What I said in my first post was
"Anyway, I think 3 - 4% is a lot better than I remember in January 1976 when it was 23.7% under Denis Healey I believe."
You could have taken that as positive, as it was meant, but such is your negative side that you try to use it against me.
I only developed the inflation statistics in response to your post 15, and then you weren't happy so I covered the complete period from 1975 to 2007 which showed that the highest inflation was under Labour in 1975, and that in 1997 they inherited a low inflation economy.
So in fact it was you who pushed the inflation subject and quite frankly you were wrong.
Can I suggest you try to be a bit more positive. I know it is difficult with Brown as leader.
Try singing Monty Python's "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life". There is a bright side you know.
For me it is the knowledge that Gordon Brown is finished and will be out soon.
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Back in the early 1990s I had a very high regard for John Smith. I
n fact over the last 15 odd years I have only cried on the death of three people - Brian Johnston, John Smith and Humphrey Lyttleton (two having schoolboy humour like me).
I would be interested in a contructive debate on John Smith and how anyone feels the Labour party would have developed under him, since would most certainlt have won the 1997 election.
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Without monetary reform there is not much Mr Brown can do about inflation.
Brown and his predecessors have given that responsibility to the private sector.
We are now at the mercy of globalisation.
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# 131. That's an interesting statistic. I had actually always thought that unemployment was 3.6 million in 1997 because that's what #85 kept saying and I hadn't bothered to check it out for myself.
Here's another couple of statistics I do know about:-
1. In 1992 the number of individual insolvencies in England and wales was just over a massive 36,000. In 2007 it was a gigantic 106,000. So more people are registering as insolvent after the boom years than they did duing the bust ones. sure the parameters have changed for registering as insolvent, but the current facts speak for themsleves.
2. More people die of Winter Mortality now than in 1997; in fact the number has been consistent, or even consistently larger since Labour took over. The National Pensioners Convention say that over 270,000 older people have died since 1997 during the Winter months than at other times during the year (this is how Winter Mortality is calculated).
3. In 1997, the NHS of a Third World Country? More people die NOW of hospital acquired infections than ever before, in spite of the massive increase in NHS spending. What has assisted education and NHS is PFI, a Tory idea that was opposed by Labour but not properly implemented before the Tories lost power.
4. On privatisation, let's not foreget that when the Tories gained power in 1979 the country was bascially run by Strike Committees and begged the IMF for loans to avoid becoming a bankrupt state. And did Labour reverse the Tory trade union legislation on secondary picketing, closed shop, secret ballots? Not at all.
5. In 1979 the basic rate of tax was 35%. The higher rate was 83%. It was possible to go to 98% if you had investment income. My lecturer at the time said you could even get to 102%, but I could never work that one out. Money from North sea oil and privatisations had to address the tax problem, the so-called brain drain, and the basic economic reconstrauction of the country. There was no begging to the IMF for loans any more. The privatisation model, though painful was necessary; China is now adopting it, eventhough it is a communist country. However, I do go vere towards a mixed-economy.
Sorry for the length of this. Somethimes you have to do it.
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#136: The trouble when you type quickly is that you leave lots of typos and leave some things needing more clarification. One point, in my bullet point 2, I should clarify is that the 270,000 figure relates to the extra number of older people who have died during the Winter Months since 1997 over and above that experienced in other months of the year.
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The politicians who face the press blame everyone but themselves for price rises,why have they not been asked whose brilliant idea biofuels were? The blind rush to look good and green the forcing through of legislation to make biofuels compulsory these are all things that politicians did,nobody else,so how much of the food price rises can be laid at their doors?
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Inflation definitely a problem, but the rules have changed a little these days.
The current oil and food price increases are a global problem. That means that short term at any rate the government are pretty much powerless; we are tied into a global system of supply and pricing with insufficient home based production - long term thinking a decade ago may have helped but hindsight is a wonderful thing. I have worked in the oil industry all my life and the current prices were unthinkable just a few years ago.
The problem is made worse by the stupidity of our bankers - BOE interest rate changes aren't being passed down to borrowers as the banks try to recoup some of their (self imposed) losses and implement knee jerk "risk control" measures - so central interest rates aren't going to be as effective in controlling the economy.
End result is we will enter a recession. We've been through them before but people have very short memories and think that a 40" TV in every room (and universal home ownership) is a God given right. The upside is that it will be global, so we won't lose a significant competitive position against other countries (except possibly Norway and other Sovereign Wealth investors) long term.
Hopefully the government won't try to spend it's way out of the mess (which is pretty much how it has sustained growth for the last few years) now that we have less control of inflation. Some chance; restraint has gone out of the window in public spending, with PFI used to cover up the real numbers. I think the recession will be shallow but long running.
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Recently a group of greedy workers held this country to ransom and Brown and NuLabour did very little to castigate or stop them! I wonder why?
The striking tanker drivers are members of the Trade Union - Unite. They had originally wanted a 13% pay rise, and turned down 7%. Their final deal is not yet known.
Earlier this month Derek Simpson, joint general secretary of Unite, told a meeting of the Amicus section activists in Brighton that it was time “new” Labour was consigned to the history books.
He said Unite would use its influence as Labour’s biggest financial supporter rather than issuing “hysterical and destabilising” threats of disaffiliation.
John Hutton said the deal reflected the particular conditions in the industry. He said: "There needs to be discipline in public and private sector pay if we are to keep inflation under control."
No John, to me, it looks more like it reflects the particular, near bankrupt, state of the Labour Party and its reliance on union dosh.
It does look as though Unite are having initial successes with their policies. Whose next?
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Nick,
The post is losing steam, unlike inflation. Brown did his best to stoke up the debate on ID cards, etc. but no one seems to have risen to the bait. Meantime the Lords are being asked to approve a non-treaty. Can we have a provocative disccussion on either of these please?
All the best.
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133#. Chill out Mike, if you can't see the irony in your 2 statements, 1 about 1976 and one about moving on I did but no big deal.
You could well be right about Gordon Brown and only histoty will judge if the 1997 to 2007 economy was one of relative prosperity, I believe it was and some if not all the credit goes to the Government. Remeber the BoE wouldn't even have had the role on interest rates if Labour had not won the 97 election. It is generally seen as a progressive decision (opposed at the time) and largely took the political dimension out of interest rate decisions.
All governments benefit or suffer from events beyond their control. Take the 1980s, where massive financial benefits not available previously came from North Sea Oil revenues and Utillity sell offs. Pitty so much went on unemployment benefit. Thats not to say that there wasn't an economic turn round in the 80s, I can see that and some credit goes to the government, it all had to be managed and decisions made. But the bile poured out on here about Gordon Brown and the Labour Government at times verges on "fanaticism" if you see what I mean.
And so looking to the future, your glee at seeing the end of Brown and Labour presumeably is matched by your keen anticipation for Cameron and Osbourne to take the reigns when the whole world is about to go through some very difficult economic times, not sure I relish that in the way you do. I can't help feeling whether you love or loathe him that Brown has a bit more "depth" than Cameron. We'll no doubt find out.
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140#
Oh my god, the bogie man is going to getya!! Give it a rest.
Could it simply be that a union like a political party can spot an opportunity to press their case and this was it for the tanker drivers and unite. Somehow I doubt if Shell/Hoyer would take a call from Gordon Brown and say come on lads just give them the cash (but don't let on I said so)
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"wrestling behind the scenes" ? Come on, Mr Robinson: Brown is just hoping people will think inflation isn't his fault.
If he wasn't such a cluncker, we might credit him with doing a King Cnut.
But subtlety was never his strong point: and he certainly deosn't understand the (very limited) role of speculation.
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I am convinced that the BBC is determined to undermine the present government in order to get David 'love my new hairstlye' Cameron into Downing Street.
Starting with Nick Robinson who was very rude at the recent press conference when referring to George Bush as 'him'. Like him or loath him (as Nick clearly does) he is still the President of America (equal in status to our monarch) and should be shown respect. This country is suffering from a decline in respect and the media, the BBC and spokepersons on their behalf should show the rest of us how we can restore respect to this nation.
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145# nworB
You're in the wrong place on here with those views. Just read the previous messages. This is the Cameron Fan club. He's the next political messiah along with Osbourne, when they get in all our problems are over and if you happen to think anything good has been done over the past 11 years you'll be roundly harranged.
Oh and expect lots of name calling. Mr Bean, McBroon are the favourites.
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Re posts #3 through #26 trading inflation statistics, there is only one number that matters:
Factory input prices: 28.9%.
That will feed through to hit your pocket eventually, despite the best efforts of NuLabour and the EU to invent meaningless numbers like the CPI and meaningless targets like 2%.
Any fool (even Gordon) can set a target that's acheivable in the short term, delegate sombody else to meet it in the long term, and then shoot the letter-writing messenger when the inevitable happens.
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147#
Very pessimistic, possibly accurate in terms of factory input.
What did Gordon Brown do wrong to create this inflationary catastrophe that's looming?
BTW when the CBI talked about inflation the other day what figures did they quote, they usually know a bit about the economy.
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'GB's defenders insist it is not his fault that inflation is on the rise - it is entirely down to global factors.
But it is arguably The PM's fault the Government's finances are now so weak because he allowed Public Spending to rip from 2001 onwards.
It now sadly for all of us has nothing left to stimulate the economy as it enters a downturn.
It is certainly his fault for imposing on The Bank of England an inflation target that did and does not even now include housing costs - despite Mr King's protests.
Had he not done so, we may not have had the housing bubble of recent years nor the sharp reverse we now face.'
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#149. It's not just that public spending has been allowed to rip, but that public spending is ahead of income, ie there's a deficit on the Government's so-called 'current account'. The Government created a Golden Rule that income would match expenditure over an economic cycle. To address the problem of income not matching expenditure "over an economic cycle", the start and end dates of the economic cycle were changed. It's the kind of majic of which Paul Daniels would be proud.
An over-spend on the current account isn't unusual, as it happens, since it was also the case during the Major years. In those years such over-spending was attributed to mismanagement; now it's called "investment".
The big problem is whether income in the future will be large enough to cover previous period deficits - or future ones. This is where value for money comes into play. Has increased spending led to greater output? More bang for the buck, or whatever. Without more national income, current account deficits have to be funded by borrowing or asset sales or taxation. There's a big problem ahead. I expect another 1,000 civil servants are needed to examine the problem.
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Who believes inflation is only 3.3% ?
What would be the current figure be if the calculation were produced using the formula as used in the 'Conservative bad old days' often referred to by Brown, I wonder?
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149 150#
If the public spending levels are too high as you seem to be suggesting then why do you feel the main opposition party and likely government in waiting has pledged to maintain those levels for the first 2 yeras when in power. Why not wield the axe straight away if the level is doing such harm to our economy. Seems strange.
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#152. It's not strange at all. As you may know, we now have what is called a Comprehensive Spending Review. This takes place every 2 years and covers the next 3 years and is a very large and detailed process. The process takes around 9 months. What would be strange is if Osbourne attempted to unpick that the results of that process within months of getting into office. What he needs to do is examine is detail the assumptions that underlie the planning and how spending plans are funded. As you'll know, each departmental budget has funds allocated to objectives, both internally and with sub-departments or external bodies they themselves fund. Each of these need to be properly analysed. So no, it's not strange to allow a period of relative stability in Government following a change of Government.
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#104/ 113 mikepko, I knew you would have to read it you cant resist can you in fact you enjoyed it so much you went back for second helpings, niice to read a bit of common sense was it, or dont you do common.
Your constant remarks about my grammar I find extremely amusing this coming from a man who has made more spelling mistakes than most on these blogs lately, but it reflects more badly on you than me lad.
Post short and often is your motto, what went wrong then Mike, I think it should be print as often as I like and as long as I like,
much more fitting for you.
You remark that I have'nt given you my Email address well I dont see yours not that I am in the least bit interested, and I would advice you not topost yours, if you and your wife are such high powered executives I would have thought that you would know better than that, it does'nt take much nous to know that it would be a mistake for anyone to do as you suggest.
My psuodonym is the name suggested to me when I joined these blogs. as for your name other than Mike its of no interest to me but perhaps you want everyone to know your name so that people will in years to come say "remember the wonderful posts that Mike Polenski used to write" visions of grandeur I think they call it.
To get to post 13I loved the exracts from Monty Pythons Fing Circus, particularly the "fing" part, I have been asking you for a few weeks where on earth you get these stories, you know the I met Tom Dick or Harry and they told me!ones, well I can see now where you go for your wisdom, Monty being one source I wonder who the others are "Alice in Wonderland "maybe?
Yes mike we all read into any government and PM what we want and there have been many who I have disliked intensely, Maggie being one. I have never vilified or used the spite and vitriol that you Tories a trying to pile onto GB perhaps its a upper class and upper middle class thing, we lower classes were not to good at grammer but quite well versed in good manners. You and others may not like him and you may think he's made a mess but believe me there are millions in this country that totally disagree with that concept and millions more that diagree with all this poison being poured on someone who is basically a good man.
Dont be offended by my use of lad or friend there is no malice intended.
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"This is classic Gordon Brown, wrestling behind the scenes with something he genuinely believes is a major long-term problem."
I agree that it is classic Gordon Brown but I think the justification is different. By trotting off to Saudi Arabia he is trying to say -
1. It's all the fault of the oil producers for not producing enough oil - it certainly isn't anything to do with me.
2. I'm here advising them on how to solve their problem - because I'm one of the movers and shakers and I'm a lot smarter than them.
3. There is absolutely no need for me to do anything that might cause me pain or inconvenience such as cutting fuel taxes, improving public transport or even (yuk) rebuilding the British economy.
I suspect this is all too subtle for most people - who will just see real prices rising far faster than the government's fiddled CPI and Gordon Brown off on yet another pointless jolly in preference to doing something useful.
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153# I understand CSR fully and all that information is available now to Team Osbourne, it doesn't just drop on his desk the day he walks in to no11. If he chose to they could make changes from day 1 like Labour did in 97 with the BoE decision.
The real reason as you know is Political and they learnt the trick from Labour. If you say you will stick to existing spending plans in Labours case you can't be accused of Tax and Spend in the Tories case you don't get accused of "cuts"
It has nothing to do with stabillity or budgets and everything to do with Party Political advantage.
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#151 EWelshman: "Who believes inflation is only 3.3% ?
What would be the current figure be if the calculation were produced using the formula as used in the 'Conservative bad old days' often referred to by Brown, I wonder?"
The quick answer to your question is '3.3%'.
This is the current figure for the CPI, which is the standardised basis for calculation used internationally, to allow international comparison. I think it was adopted in the UK by the Conservative government in 1988.
There are other measures of inflation, especially the RPI which is currently at 4.4% I think. Sometimes the RPI gives a higher figure (as now), and sometimes the CPI is higher.
Both are calculated by the independent Office for National Statistics, not the government.
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#156. I think it's both political and sensible. I also suspect it's one of those rare occasions where what is political and sensible are aligned. The BoE decision was probably a good call; it was put to Labour during the Tory years in one of the handover sessions that Oppositiion parties have with the former/outgoing Government. Clarke's beef with it was that he wanted more time to think about it, to fully understand the implications, however I think it first came up when Lamont was still Chancellor. But the BoE decision was rather different from CSR; in the case of the latter we're ralking about tax raising and Governmental budgeting. The BoE decision, though fundamental to economic management, was procedural.
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140 and 143:
Apparently the latest news is that the tanker drivers have been offered 14%. mmmmmmmmmmmmmm ...........................!
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Did anyone hear Alastair darling on Today this morning. I
t was really painful. When Evan Davis pushed him to agree that people will have to take a cut in living standards he just couldn't bring himself to say it. Blamed everyone but himself and Brown, and tried to talk out the interview.
By the way, the Shell tanker drivers appear to have agreed 14% over two years, 7% a year in reallity.
Asked about this Darling said they are a special case and everyone else should be lookin at a very much smaller figure.
I see the unions aren't impressed.
Summer of discontent on the way?
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104/ 113 well mike i dont know whats going on I wrote a post in answer to yours posts nothing offensive just a general rebuttal of some of your opinions and a putting forward of mine, I did mention your wife but only in the same context as yourself, I also suggested that to exchange Emails in this way would be foolish.
I dont know what is going on with the moderaters lately, I dont know if we've another pain in the backside on here thats complaing about posts, as I say I have had a few veiled threats so who knows.
If it continues then I am afraid that I will move on to some other blogs, as your aware I'm getting on a bit and not being trained to use a typewriterit takes me a little while to write a fairly long post but if its moderated out for no apparent reason then whats the point.
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3.3%? Who are Merv and Al kidding? With food, heating costs, mortgage interest rates, petrol and diesel all up between 10 and 40% we all know inflation is a lot higher.
So are they being selective? are the figures being massaged or are they putting out this figure to try and keep wage demands down?
We should be told!
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mikepko iam going to complain about one of your posts not because I want to as i found it quite funny, but if they think that perhaps my post was off thread then surely yours is
no offence.
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# mighty angela, I wont get into a long disagreement with you because I'm quite annoyed that the moderaters have removed a quite innocent post of mine.
I just wanted to correct you on one point when Labour came to power there were fifty thousand apprentices now there are two hundred and fifty thousand apprentices and rising daily, just a point.
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moderaters I think you need to read 104 and 113 before removing my post.
my post 154 was in reply the the afore mentioned posts and contained nothing any more offensive than the two posts that I was answering that were addressed to me.
Please try to look before you leap.
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Grandantidote
I managed to catch your moderated post before it disappeared and will quite happily vouch that there was nothing in it that I could see as offensive....
Although it says "referred to the moderators", rather than "awaiting moderation" so it looks like someone else disagrees with me.
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#125 jimbrant I have to agree with you regarding the NHS both our hospitals near at hand to which both my wife have and are attending are superb loads of new equipment from top to bottom including waiting room chairs which you dont sit on very long these days, people go on about MRSA you would think that labour introduced it, I wonder what the statistics are comparing it to pro outside cleaners to after. bring back the Matron I say and labour are doing just that.
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Inflation problem is actually quite simple. It comes about when there is too much money chasing too few goods.
In recent years it has been low, globally, because the world’s capacity to make things has been large (viz cheap Chinese toys etc). recently this capacity has been diminished because a key raw material (ie oil) is in short supply and therefore costs more so producers produce less. And, of course, the money supply is smaller because the banks are nervous about lending.
The situation in the UK has been slightly different. For years our capacity has been low (witness the consant excesss of imports over exports). This should have produced inflation and indeed it did on domestic products and services (eg council tax rises, heating bills, insurance cost rises etc). We have also had it on housing because these are in limited supply and a lot of people want to buy here. However this has all been mitigated by price falls on our imports - hence the myth that we had a low inflation economy.
Now that global inflation has started to go up, then this mitigating effect is no longer working – hence the indicatorts finally tell the truth. The drop in house prices is not enough to compensate for this and anyway some of the indicators exclude this.
What to do? To the exent that some of the inflationary pressures are imported, nothing.
But for the domestic bit, we must look at what we should have been doing for the last ten years. Ie either increasing our output or decreasing the money chasing the products. So in the case of housing we should have either had higher interest rates or, what I would have done, is reduce demand by limiting the abilty of foreigners to buy UK houses. Either route would have meant less money chasing those houses. However, neither is needed right now because house prices are going down. (By the way this is for the long term good – we don’t want housing to be costly).
In the case of public services – stop throwing money at them. So cap council spending.
This will probably be enough for the moment. It will create a bit of unemployment so let’s not over do it. Later, when house prices start to pick up and the economy also picks up and the public sector guys have been re-employed then we can introduce foreign ownership conrols over housing (like the Swiss do).
To summarise, rasing the interest rates has its place, but not now. Never forget that although high interest rates means high pound, cheap imports and can look good in the indicators, it also means reduced exports and unemployment.
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#166 s slatt. Thankyou for your support I am glad that you were able to see it. we had someone on here recently who was reporting everything, we were pretty sure who it was. He's gone now but we seem to have another one. I was threatened by Park avenue 301 a week or so ago but who knows, even if we dont agree with one another, as long as we keep our remarks within bounds then its a good sometimes fun debate. what we dont want is people coming on here spioling it.I did complain about one post a few weeks ago but that was completely over the top.
anyway thanks for your support.
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163 mikepko, I see that they have removed your post 113 which I requested as I say on post 163 I quite enjoyed that post a good laugh but I think you will accept my apologies for removing it, it was purely to prove a point because I'm pretty sure you would'nt have removed mine. So the plot thickens. not one ounce of malice intended Mike
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Re: Grandantidote # 164
Hello Dear Grandantidote,
Seems a long time ago when we had a really good fight, using our keyboards as swords!
Seriously, didn't our fight start with me winding you up with John (sssh) Prescott, and you irritating me by insisting that moderators are essential?
I think the fact that your postings have been stopped by Faceless Moderator proves my point. Why can't adults be allowed to discuss their opinions openly? We both still have opposing views, yet can discuss rationally those differences and share a common love of good, true to life literature. By the way, have you read "The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists"? It is by Trevallian (sic).
True freedom should allow free speech. I would even defend the right of a maniac like Holocaust denier David Irving to speak. When an idiot speaks we can all hear and judge. When somebody is silenced, they become almost like a martyr. Well that's my view. In most things I seem to be wrong, never have been in the majority, more like the cat that walks alone.
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grandantidote
You cad.
How dare you have one of my posts removed when I wasn't looking. Old Socialist trick I think.
Well I am going to think about having my post replaced and having one of yours removed. In fact I might go through the lot and have them all removed.
What do you think of that?
The obvious alternative is that we meet at a place convenient to us both and fight a dual.
Weapons - handbags; I can borrow one from my wife, but not her new one if I value my safety.
If you agree, Handbags at Dawn it is.
The only question is where considering your advancing years and the price of petrol.
On second thoughts, perhaps we ought to put it off to next year.
PS Do you think our friendly exchange may be considered "fratanising with the enemy" by kiwilegs?
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I wonder how many posts we might have got up to on the Divisive Davis thread if Kiwilegs had not been abroad? Might have blown up the servers at BBC HQ....
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#171 Mighty Angela no I dont want to go over old ground either, my argument at that time was not particularly about John Prescott but about bulimia, but thats bye the bye I still believe in the moderaters and there are some things on here that some crazy people write that perhaps should be moderated, but I will not be refering anyone to moderaters unless the remark are totally out of order and about people that are unable th defend themselves.
I feel that basicaly you are a good and honest person your politics are a bit awry but then we are all individuals and entitled to our opinions, there is something in what you say about free speech but the trouble with that is that there are plenty of people that will believe them thats how people like Hitler came to power.
no I hav'nt read that book I'm afraid I've become lazy as I've grown old, I mostly watch TV or I'm on the computer. anyway Happy Blogging.
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# 173 colinefb, your right there thats for sure.
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#172 mikepko, Yes sorry about that, I think its more likely zimmer frames at dawn.
I'm pretty sure kiwilegs would'nt mind if there's anything that she hates more than Tories its moderaters, she wont be back for a while though, I thought we had a substitute in trudie victoria but have'nt heard from her for a few days, were letting you tories have a free rein at the moment I have'nt seen Gary Elsby either but as Arnold
said "I'll[we'll] be back."
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The projected £400 a year rise in fuel bills is particularly worrying in view of the present economic climate. It is likely to drrive up both inflation and wage demands. The 14% over two years offered to tanker drivers won't help the Public Service Unions to swallow the pill either. It'll be interesting to see how The Government tackles this new threat to our Standards of Living.
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174:
Nice of you to concede that Mighty Angela is basically a good and honest person but then you go and spoil it all by intimating that some people on here are as bad as the supporters of Hitler. Perhaps you could expand on who exactly you mean by posting this remark so that they can have the opportunity to defend themselves.
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If this mutual admiration society continues all of the fun will go out of posting.
Its a bit like the Christmas football match on the Western front line in 1914. A brief truce. Photographs.Football match. Drinks and cigarettes. Exchange of gifts. Then back to killing one another.
Another day tomorrow. lets see what surprises oocur in the realms of politics.
The one thing I really don't want to hear tomorrow is the unnecesary deaths of any more of out troops in Afghanistan (or Iraq).
I'm sure that is something we can all agree upon, irrespective political party.
Night, night.
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179:
Good Night and God Bless.
I fear the death toll in Helmands Province will continue to rise as the insurgents continue to use dirty tactics to pick off our soldiers. Surely someone somewhere must be working on methods of detecting these roadside weapons before they have a chance to be deployed. If we can walk on the moon surely we can find a way of spotting and destroying these awfully destructive mines before they wreak such havoc. I watched some short clips of exploding Allied land vehicles posted on an insurgent web site and broadcast by The BBC. Chilling to witness the deaths of our brave Servicemen as they go about their dangerous work of protecting our freedom and that of The Afghan community.
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#179mikpko180 waldorf Yes I saw a program sky news I think, these bombs are set off apparently with mobile phones and they are setting up a piece of equipment that fits on the fromt of the vehicle and counters any phone calls for some distance ahead. lets hope its a success.
As you both say good luck to the lads out there fighting for us and the lads from all the countries that are doing their bit to get rid of the taliban.
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It's worrying that the Chancellor is proposing to give the Bank of England new responsibilities for the UK's financial stability.
The Bank is a fine old institution, but the Governer is not elected or accountable to the electorate. Furthermore, the Bank of England only has very limited influence. This feels like Darling is trying to pass the buck.
The country's overall financial stability (or lack of it) is a direct result of the Government's own fiscal policies. The Bank of England has no say on taxation or public spending.
When a government regularly spends more money than it has in the coffers, or borrows more than it can repay, this leads to instability.
The Bank of England can raise interest levels - which is the traditional way of curbing inflation as it discourages ordinary people from borrowing. The government however continues to borrow and spend - because the repayments will be someone else's problem!
It is often overlooked that if interest rates go too high, this actually adds to inflationary pressure as people struggle to pay their mortgages and other monthly bills.
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174 Nigellaawsome, I am afraid that you missed the point completely, I was not referring to free speech on these blogs I was referring to free speech in general while I am a supporter of free speech, it can become a weapon in the hands of some people when used in a tolerant society, hence the reason for the clamp down on some islamic fundermentalist who have abused our hospitality and have been using free speech to encourage young moslems to take up arms against their own country ie us, in some cases their host country. I am all for free speech but not if it allows anyone to encourage people to kill me or mine, or yours as it happens. It just happens we have one blogger on these current blogs who is using his right to free speech to encourage or troops to mutiny and is consantly running down our soveriegn state,so free speech is not always right but certainly desirable.
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grandantidote @183wrote:
"It just happens we have one blogger on these current blogs who is using his right to free speech to encourage or troops to mutiny and is consantly running down our soveriegn state,so free speech is not always right but certainly desirable."
You don't get it, do you? I also don't agree with what most of that poster says - but it is his absolute right to say what he want without being censored by the state, the BBC or some self-appointed Lord Chamberlain of the internet.
No 'ifs' or 'buts'.
If I don't like , say, the pompous, prolix ramblings of a certain Nu Labour supporting windbag, that's my problem. Not a reason to censor him.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
184 sceptic max you dont give an opinion on the rest of the post , so I guess if someone with a turban is standing outside your house and encouraging a group of brainwashed and highly excited bunch of youngsters to throw a petrol bomb through the window of your house when you and all your family are sat down to Sunday lunch, you being the doyen of free speech would lift up the window and say "carry on lads i love free speech". Moron!
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185 As I suspected when anyone other than the usual people who spend their time on these blogs spouting all sorts of bile and venom are answered in the same way there moderated thats free speech sceptic a reply to the person who is possibly the most offensive and it gets pulled. there's no ifs or buts here moron!
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185 I see that my post to you was referred to the moderaters, pretty damn quick whoever it was they must have been sat with fingers poised over the keyboard, perhaps you being the doyen of free speech would like to write a post informing this person that you can well look after yourself, and for them to but out. It was'nt you was it?
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grandantidote, @186 and 187:
You obviously don't understand the difference between free speech and incitement to violence.
But then there's quite a lot you don't seem to understand.
Feel free to call me a moron.
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Odd that Gordon is focusing on this particular boom while PM. A shame that he did not make the same efforts to stem the ridiculous speculative bubble in UK house prices while he was Chancellor, as the result of that inactivity is now coming back to haunt him.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
183:
I apologise if I misunderstood your drift. There is a world of difference between taking people to task for misrepresenting the truth and for just stating contrary opinions. I was under the impression that you were implying the latter which in a free society of course would be unacceptable. There are irrefutable facts about the economy which cannot be avoided whichever way you look at it. The Public Services granted are better off than they were because of the heavy investment poured into them but The Public Purse as a result is not because our expenditure has exceeded our income. This + The global downturn is now having a knock on effect on inflation. There has also been a perceived lack of checks and balances to ensure that money has been targeted properly and spent wisely.
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Banks are now taking steps to recover themselves through their customers thus someone else is getting the punishment for their mistakes. How about forcing them to share some of the blame with their customers? After all, the banks are losing only money whereas their customers are losing money as well as their homes.
What would happen if the government were to pass a law that prevented repossessions if the mortgage holder continued payments at pre credit crunch rates until the credit crunch goes on long enough to expose all the dark secrets that are preventing the banks from trusting each other?
Come on Mr Brown, show us your true credentials and do something that will win you the next election. Perhaps even come up with a formula that help the homeowner out with the difference added to the end of the mortgage without adding compound interest on it?
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In the video regarding the hat, I am sure you can make our Gordon calling Bush "Sir". Very curious. Of course Blair called him "master" and was kept on a very tight lead...
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#193
What about personal responsibility?! If you took out a mortgage you could not afford then you have to take the risk of interest rates rising. You can't expect the government to step in and bail you out.
Everything that is going on now in the housing market is a correction of the ridiculous housing bubble of recent years, and an antidote to the British public's myopic belief that house prices always go up over any period of ownership. It might be painful, but this is necessary (and long overdue). The very last thing the government should be doing is trying to tinker with this.
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195:
I tend to agree on this particular issue. People cannot really complain if they stretched themselves with 300% mortgages that have now left them with negative equity. The economic downturn has been forecast for quite some time now. Many years ago I had a French girlfriend who told me that if anyone signed a cheque without sufficient funds in their account the cheque would be bounced and they could be liable to prosecution. Perhaps we should have done a similar thing here many moons ago.
The debt driven economy could not have been expected to go on forever.
here many moons ago.
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191 sceptic max your a great believer in free speech. yet another of my posts in reply to your posts in no worse language than you used to me has been referred to the moderaters. if it is'nt you you must have a pretty good idea who it is, lets see if you can put your money where your mouth is and tell whoever it is to get of my back.
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#189 sceptic max I will try once again to answer you.this time as briefly as possible so that you can read it before some offensive clown referres it to the moderaters, why you cant understand that the scenario I described to you is the sort of thing[not quite to extremis] that is going on all over the world I am fully a believer in free speech but unlike you, I think that when certain people take advantage of our belief in free speech to use it against us in order to create death and destruction then I am not at all happy about it, of course its incitement to violence or maybe murder but they have used our belief in free speech in order to incite.
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Afternoon everyone
If I might comment, I think it very bad mannered of you all to have such fun while I was sat in meetings trying to earn a crust.
Never mind, I'll try to catch up and post my fivepennyworth later.
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grandantidote @197 and 198
Sorry for not replying sooner - even Capitalist running dogs need to work sometimes...
Again: It wasn't me - and may whomsoever complained about any post on this blog - and had any contributor's post removed - suffer everlasting itching in embarrassing places.
Happy now?
As for your scenario, I'll only repeat what I've said before:
1) Freedom of speech is indivisible - following Voltaire's well-known dictum.
2) There are already laws in place against incitement to violence, etc.
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I see that once again an argument for and against free speech is raging. My opinion is already written on these blogs, I'm for free speech, even from maniacs such as David Irving and other nasties. I cannot accept what Grandantidote writes, suggesting that terrorists will be encouraged to throw bombs, etc. after being stirred up by reading inciting letters. Most of the UK traitors, either born here or taking advantage of our benefits, are too ignorant to bother ro read. I hope the Faceless Moderator will allow this to pass, and not accuse me of racism or religious prejudice. The evil these potential terrorists will hear spouted will be in mosques. Let me make it clear, I have not written ALL mosques, nor those which have respectable family communities. I am referring to fringe organizations, so Mr Moderator, let this remain. A far more insidious danger, are the so-called Law Lords (I have a better term for them which would certainly ban my posting). They allow evil people to escape puishment in countries such as Jordan, which is hardly a dictatorship compared to many lands, and we the poor taxpayers have to support these parasites. What is seen to take place in the law courts, like the recent ruling against a hairdresser who didn't want an assistant in a scarf, encourage far more mayhem then the writings on blogs, which are mostly read once and then forgotten.
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201 mighty angela sorry angela nothing there about anybody being stirred by reading inciting letters, you know as well as I that people have been inciting people in the streets the guy with the hook and the guy released on bail this week are two, how many others are using free speech to incite people to kill and maim we will never know.how about the muslim marchers in London with placards inciting people to kill and chop of heads and shouting these threats as they marched.
The example of throwing the bomb through sceptics window was just an example to ask how he would react to that situation and to see if the guy using free speech to encourage some one to do just that would be acceptable, he says that would be incite to murder which of course thats my point ,if he or any one else is allowed to use free speech to cause mayhem then they have to be stopped if you dont believe that well I hope it does'nt rebound on you, but you and sceptic are entitled to your opinions and I mine
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# 200 sceptic max. and mighty angela.you say
2]there are already laws in place against incitement to violence,etc,
I agree with those laws even though the person doing the inciting is exercising his right to free speech, do you?
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#202 Grandantidote
It is really terrible how people waste life's precious moments. I too get really very upset hearing people demanding beheadings, etc. What makes it worse is the way the law seems to protect the guilty, the terrorists (or rather their corrupt lawyers) calling on the legal system which they deride and wish to destroy to gain their freedom.
No doubt I will enrage many people, but I would like to see the death penalty restored for acts of extreme cruelty.
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grandantodote - you are very confused and I've no wish to debate the issue with you any further.
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205 sceptic max your the one confused you want to have it both ways, your the one who poked his nose in . this is typical of you as soon as you lose the argument you scuttle off and say I dont want to speak to you. Why dont you just admit you were wrong?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
200 sceptic max Actually it was'nt Voltairs dictum it was the work of Evelyn Beatrice Hall.
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These terrorists have massive, psychotic chips on their shoulders. They will glean justification for their vile acts from whatever quarter suits them whether it be the rantings of a rogue cleric or the writings of a supposedly learned supporter of their cause. Whatever the source it needs to be cut off at origin. It is not in fact an example of free speech. It is encitement to hatred and possible violence. Those who initiate it should if feasible be deported and refused reentry. Why should we be forced to pay taxpayers money to protect and nurture them? The methods they use are cowardly and totally non productive. They also pour shame on their fellows. God forbid The West used their own vicious tactics against them to make a point.
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#209 Waldorf29
I fully agree that terrorists should, where they are not UK citizens be deported. I don't want to bore by repetition, but in posting #201, I wrote of the so-called Law Lords (I have a better, obscene term for them) who allow these creatures to remain here and live at the expense of the taxpayers. The latest one who is going to appeal to the House of Lords is that grotesque Hook Hand Hamza. Any bets that he will be permitted to continue to foul this green land? Apart from the security dangers, the cycnical escape from punishment and the mockery of so-called human rights, these parasites live in expensive houses, we have to pay for their wives and offspring, they gnaw away at public funds, and for what? The judges are mainly a bunch of wretched "scratch-my-back" so-called individuals who have no real roots in the life of this country. I doubt if any of them, or their fathers ever dug a ditch, laid bricks or drove a lorry. They prance in their gowns and wigs braying about human rights, and yet the only mercy they show is to criminals.
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Re: 210 No doubt I threw scorn on terrorists, Law Lords and the House of Lords, all in equal measure. My opinions may have been banished from this posting, but as yet Big Brother cannot look into my brain and censure that. Or can He?
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My banned posting supported #209, and I not only condemned terrorists who take advantage of this country and live high on the hog, living in expensive houses, with their children provided for. I also derided the Law Lords and their fellow bewigged cronies in the House of Lods. I hardly demanded Revolution!
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29 Waldorf. What I have been trying to say but it does'nt seem to be getting through is that I am fully in favour of free speech.
The problem with living in a country that accepts free speech is that some people, for example the rogue clerics or indeed as you say their writings.
Of course it is our acceptence of free speech that allows this.
In any country that that does not permit free speech they would be arrested on the spot we dont do that because free speech and rightly so is our right but only allowed within certain parameters.
When a number of people become offended by this and the law is brought in to examine it they then decide that this persons free speech has now become conveniently for us incitement to do whatever but in truth it is removing his / her freedom of free speech only because we dont like what he /her are saying
You will find that many of these people get away with what we consider to be free speech on many occasions until finaly we consider that this persons free speech has gone beyond what we like to call free speech then the law steps in and it becomes incitement..
We have one or two people on these blogs who believe that there is no limit to free speech.
If that were the case then you could'nt call it incitement he / her has the right to say whatever he /she thinks.you cant say, you can say that, thats OK but you cant say the other thing, because thats not we like you saying..
There are many words that we consider that should not be allowed to be used that have nothing to do with incitement but you and I are prevented from using them , do we consider that they are an infringment on our right to free speech of course we dont because we recognise that they are a abuse of what we like to think is our right to free speech.
The truth is that there is no free speech however we might desire it, we just have to try to live life the best way we can with the truth it does'nt matter what Voltair is erroneously credited with having said which is much quoted but when push comes to shove its seldom carried through ,we can agree with him but you can take it from me there is not one person on these blogs that would defend it to the death..
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184 sceptic max you consrantly tell me to read the posts. well perhaps you can tell me on post183 were I said that the post in question should be removed.
And who could you be abusing your right to free speech on in your last sentence.
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Actually although my posting #210 was banned, I had the last laugh. In #212, my metaphor showing how terrorists live at our expense was a rather naughty stroke. Has anybody noticed that the weekend moderators are rather a suspicous lot?
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#213 Grandantidote
you can take it from me there is not one person on these blogs that would defend it to the death..
I would! I have nothing to lose, and my beliefs means more to me than a few extra years on this earth. I believe in G-d, and am sure a better place awaits us who sincerely try to do our best and avoid hurting nature and its creatures, human and animal.
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Speculation in oil does not affect the longterm oil price. The price of oil is determined by the real forces of supply and demand. A speculator merely tries to profit from the predicted future expected change in price of a commodity given by the real forces of supply and demand. The speculator wants the commodity to be in his hands while the price is rising. The speculator profits from the change in price-he does not cause it. Only if a speculator could keep a commodity off the final market and out of the hands of the final buyer would he be able to alter the real longterm price. And that is not speculation as such but rather the creating of a false market. There have many such cartels and rings in history eg the French copper cartel of 1888, the International Tin Council, the Brazil controlled Coffee Organisation. These cartels eventually go bust and their pile of commodities are sold leading to glut prices. Speculators have a function in the normal workings of capitalism or they would not exist. Nick, your economics are a about 500 years out of date. You will be telling us about "engrossers" or "middlemanni" next.
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grandantidote @214 asks:
"And who could you be abusing your right to free speech on in your last sentence."
I was intending to abuse you, of course. If it took you two days to figure that out then I shall have to try harder - or just give up.
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Re my posting #210 which was banned, I have given it serious thought. I derided both terrorists and the Law Lords, and on reflection I imagine I could have offended the sensitivities of terrorists if my blog had been printed in its entirety. True, it wasn't a bomb filled with nails or dynamite, but it would have affected their human rights, since its very anonymity would prevent them from taking immediate revenge. The moderators, being politically correct denied it being shown. As for the Law Lords, I stated they are a "scratch-my-back" clutch who do not in any way represent normal citizens of the UK. Between the lot of them, I doubt that any of them ever dug a ditch, laid a brick or drove a lorry. They are completely out of touch with real life, and show mercy and compassion only for criminals. I wager that the hook-handed Hamza will win his appeal in the House of Lords. If he doesn't I swear to donate a tenth of my personal "pocket money" to Battersea Cats and Dogs Home.
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218 sceptic max do you honestly think that I hang on your every word. It's obvious that you have a extremely high opinion of yourself, but believe me thats were it ends. I just had a few minutes to have a look back through the posts and there you were with your usual poisoness remarks aimed at anyone that gets the better of you, in this case me.
I am afraid that the strain is getting to much for you, such petty remarks should be kept to the playground were you belong.
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Well! Do you have a hat or not?
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216 mighty angela, this post is a difficult one for me angela as I am a life long atheist.
When some one brings religion into a discussion I can either respect them for their beliefs or think to myself how can a intelligent person like this have been brainwashed into believing what I consider to be nonsense.
As you know they say never dicuss politics or religion in good company, well the trouble with that is that we are already discussing politics, so I dont think it would be wise to go into religion.
You say that you would be prepared to give up your life for free speech, so if some crank was bellowing in the street the merits, lets say of the Klu Klux Klan and some equally apposed zealot pulled out a gun and pointed at the Klansman, you would jump in front of him and say you will have to shoot me before you shoot him he has the right of free speech. Is that what you saying?
I would be prepared to put my life in danger to save another life as I have done, but I would never put my life in danger to protect someone who did'nt have enough sense to keep there mouth shut when it puts them in danger, thus putting me in danger. There are many ways to make your point and get you opinion across and what we call free speech is only one of them.
As you believe in God then you must believe that God gave you life, I dont think that he would be very impressed if you were to throw it away defending some idiot who could even be exercising his right to free speech by praising the devil or any thing else for that matter. Defending free speech is in all our hearts but to answer glibly that I would do it fools nobody and if it does it only does so briefly. Angela I hope that you dont take any of this personally as it is not meant to be, I have no wish to offend you although we disagree on many things. good night.
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#222
Dear Grandantidote
I'm not offended by your posting, because I really enjoy debating. If I didn't, why would I spend so much time writing (probably rubbish) when I could be using that time for cleaning, ironing, washing etc!
The examples you have given are rather extreme for a woman of my age. In my youth, I spent rather a lot of time standing up for what I believed in, and consequently was dragged away by officials as I shouted in defiance. Truth be told, I was a harridan, and stood up for my own rights to free speech, and perhaps selfishly was not concerned with the opinions of others. As I mature (nice word) I try to see the other point of view. By the way, that wager is still on, and I would be happy to lose. We would get rid of Hook-Hand, and the cats and dogs at Battersea would receive a small donation.
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222 Mighty Angela. I agree with you that both you and I could probably make better use of our time but then when you get older and you are unable to do the things you ache to do, then you have to try to do what you can to keep you mind active even if you cant do it for your body. Anyway it keeps us of the streets. My wife has just read your post and was quite impressed that you can avoid cleaning, ironing, washing by using these blogs she's thinking of joining in.
I also enjoy debating with people who wish to debate in a reasonable way and with a acceptable sense of decorum. It's not much point in trying to debate with some people who are so full of themselves that they've lost the ability to respect others in the same way that they would like to recieve respect.
To get back to the point ,yes I agree that my examples are rather extreme but if I had said there was someone extolling the virtues of the womens institute it would not have carried the same weight of argument would it? Unfortunately we live in a age where similar type of things that I used to further my argument seem to be taking place sadly through out the World on a almost daily basis.for an example the asassination of Benazir Bhutto she spoke openly for freedom and died for it. whereas Daw aung san suu kyis of Burma has been patiently waiting in house detention for many years, because she is alive one day she will win.
If I may use one other example with regard to free speech from the home of Voltair, during the occupation of France by the Nazis,it would have been really stupid if all the freedom fighters had assembled in the square and proceeded to run hitler down , thus excercising their right to free speech, they would probably have lasted about five minutes before they were all killed, by not being that foolish and hung up on free speech, they were able to cause the Nazis mayhem and help to free the country.
As I have said previously I believe in the basic concept of free speech but to defend it to the death archieves nothing and only gives those that would prevent free speech one less opponent.
I can see by your posts that you were a harridan you come across as a fiesty lady and I am sure that even being a mature Lady you could still be quite a harridan if you wished,
I agree that hook hand wiil probably get away with not being extradited as you do but like you I sincerely hope that were wrong.
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#224
Dear Grandantidote
Point taken as regards the French Resistance. BUT, if all the Germans and Austrians one meets (the ancient ones) had stood up to be counted in defying Hitler then that maniac would never have taken power. I have never met a German of my age, or older, who actually admitted supporting the monster. They all, it seems, were the silent majority. I have nothing but scorn for them.
Perhaps us older ones should take to the streets. Grey Power could be a force to be reckoned with. If all of us, irrespective of political views stood united for decent pensions, proper health care, tough policing, and respect - that word the young love - maybe the political parties would wake up and realise something. It is the senior citizens they should be courting, not the minorities or other sectors. We are, or soon will be, the majority, concerning those entitled to vote. We could hold the parties to ransom if we stopped being silent. Think about it! Have a nice Sunday, the wind is blowing all the cobwebs away.
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225 Mighty Angela, this discussion started way back on post 171, if you care to read 174 you will see that I said that if Hitler had not been allowed what he considered his right to free speech he would not have been able to sway practically the whole German people behind him.
As I am sure you will concede that he must have had a lot of charisma to achieve this, but this was my original point allowing every one free speech is fine for the good people of this world but it can be used as a weapon against those same people in the wrong hands ie Adolf Hitler.
So the support of free speech should be considered with caution, it isnt always used for good although we would like it to be,.
Yes the wind is blowing quite strong here but the sun is shining so as you say have a nice day.
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225 Mighty Angela your quite right about grey power but we all have such contrasting views and it would seem memories that there would be blood on the streets. I think we should leave it alone unless some idiot decides to give 16 year olds the vote, any way I'm off to bed, pleasant dreams.
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222 grandantidote.
Well, there is a big differennce between us.
Everyone has to have something to believe in.
For me it is God with the Conservatives a very distant second. For you it is Labour.
For me it is constant. For you it is constantly changing to meet the public mood.
As thay say, a "No brainer."
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Inflation took a big jump this month thanks mostly to gas prices. The price of gas keeps going up. It affects the price of everything we buy. Travel is more expensive and airlines are adding a surcharge to cover fuel costs. Tourist operators are getting worried and with good reason. Eating out is also going to get more costly too. Food prices are going up because it costs money to produce and haul food to it''s destination. Food staples like wheat, rice and corn are getting expensive and fuel costs are partly to blame for this. It''s a vicious circle. The government will hold hearings with oil companies and pretend to investigate gas prices just like before and nothing will get done just like before. Diesel prices have really gone crazy and natural gas as well as home heating oil is also out of control. Visit our website and take part in our gas poll on www.nbtv.ca . We asked who's to blame for high gas prices and got some very interesting results. Over half of respondence say they blame speculation for the problem.
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