"Clear red water"
The BBC's boffins are now predicting that the Labour Party will fall well short of the 30 seats needed for it to be able to control the Assembly on its own. Indeed, we are forecasting it will win no more than 26 seats, two less than it secured in the debacle of 1999.
Plaid Cymru are predicted to retain second place, though with 14 seats the party will still be below the 17 that it won in 1999. Nevertheless, the Tories will be disappointed at having failed to oust the nationalists from third place. At 22%, their vote is up just a couple of points on 2003.
The Lib Dems is expected to emerge with one more seat than it has at the moment and is likely to be called upon by Labour to help it form a majority coalition.
It's been a bad night for Rhodri Morgan and not the predicted vindication for his strategy of keeping "clear red water" between himself and Tony Blair.