Edinburgh: The Scottish public doesn't want it; the Scottish Parliament won't vote for it - so why on Earth is Scotland's first minister about to publish the first-ever official plan for one part of the UK to break away from the rest?

On Monday, Alex Salmond will unveil what he describes as "a historic document" - a White Paper spelling out plans to give the people of Scotland a vote on their constitutional future and making the case for independence.

One answer is that he's doing what he promised. The more interesting answer is that he believes politics will change dramatically in the year ahead in a way which will deliver support for a referendum and significant new powers for the Scottish Parliament, if not independence itself.

The election of an old Etonian English Tory prime minister who will be said to have no Scottish mandate is only one part of what he means, should of course the Conservatives triumph.

He also believes that Labour out of power, both North and South of the border, would face irresistible pressure to let the people have their say.

What's more, he thinks the Lib Dems might find the lure of returning to government in a coalition with the SNP irresistible in place of the relative obscurity of being Scotland's fourth party.

Independence will not, Salmond tells me, be a "magic bullet" which will solve all of Scotland's problems.

However, his proposals will aim to move away from debates about symbols. The Queen can stay, so too the pound and the army and there will, he assures non-Scots, be no passports, no Hadrian's Wall, no ditch on the border.

The White Paper will aim to show that real everyday problems could be better solved if the Scottish Parliament had greater powers.

It will spell out what could be possible under the government's version of the Calman reforms or under so-called devolution-max (or independence-lite, as I prefer to call it) in which Scotland controls everything other than defence, foreign policy and macroeconomics - and under full-blown independence.

His real aim is to present independence not as a clean break but as an evolutionary step on a journey which Scotland has already begun.

That way, he hopes to convert majority opposition to independence into majority support for greater powers for Scotland.

Just now, Salmond has neither support for a referendum or independence. Not so long ago, it was unthinkable that he would be first minister in a Scottish government. History, he believes, is on his side.

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Westminster 1440 GMT: Gordon Brown was caught on the hop at Prime Minister's Questions by questions about schools in Slough and Tottenham which the Conservatives claim have links to alleged Islamic extremists - and which, although they are independent, have received some taxpayers' funds.

The Tories' aim, I believe, was to show that the government has not kept its eye on protecting Britain from extremists at home.

It's no coincidence that this comes at a time when the prime minister has had more success in arguing why British troops on the streets in Afghanistan are keeping us safe here in the UK.

David Cameron's questions follow a letter from Michael Gove to his opposite number Ed Balls. Balls is about to reply insisting that:

• Both have been inspected by Ofsted since 2007
• Both are registered with the Department for Schools, Children and Families
• As a result both schools have legitimately received government funding

He will say that Ofsted has recently reviewed their procedures to ensure that its inspections do take into consideration whether extremist views are being taught in schools.

What's more, he will say that the issue of individual teachers with extremist views or links is already covered by the review which is examining whether to ban BNP members from teaching.

Balls could be seen mouthing (or was it shouting) "shameful" when David Cameron was on his feet in the Commons. Labour believes the Tories are playing politics with a dangerous issue.

The Tories will, no doubt, respond that what matters is the bigger picture - namely the government's failure to ban Hizb ut-Tahrir - an issue Cameron raised at Gordon Brown's first Question Time.

Ministers insist that a ban would require substantial evidence relating to organising, supporting or facilitating terrorism and that could risk driving extremists underground where they are less easy to monitor. Furthermore, individual members or supporters can be prosecuted, they argue, if they incite racial hatred.

There's nothing like a looming election and a few tighter polls to liven up exchanges at Question Time.

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Today, George Osborne will unveil a new Tory idea: the "green cut". It's really rather simple.

The Treasury, under Tory control, would calculate how much each Whitehall department would save if it cut its carbon emissions by 10%. Then they would simply cut that department's budget accordingly and force them to publish their carbon efficiency performance online.

Hey presto! Saving money and saving the planet at the same time. If only life were that simple.

Labour points out that in the past 10 years, they have struggled to cut carbon emissions by 10% in central government - so promising to cut it by 10% in one year with no specific plan about how to do it looks pretty implausible.

The Tories counter that businesses have done it; but, as far as I can tell, companies like B&Q and Tesco have achieved the reduction by cutting things like transportation costs and packaging - things not largely available to central government.

It could be, of course, that this could be a cut by another name. Dress it up as "green", though, and it looks much more attractive.

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