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BBC BLOGS - Nick Robinson's Newslog

It won't be March

Nick Robinson | 18:43 UK time, Wednesday, 11 November 2009

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The Tories have been worrying away about the possibility of a March election giving Gordon Brown an element of surprise.

Now George Osborne's backroom team have found a reason to stop worrying unless, that is, Gordon Brown wants to go to the country without having a Budget.

The date of the pre-Budget report was announced today as 9 December. The Code for Fiscal Stability [29KB PDF] which Gordon Brown put into law in 1998, states that there must be "at least three months" between the pre-Budget report and the following Budget.

Thus, the earliest possible date for a 2010 Budget is 9 March. That is after the latest possible date - 1 March - on which Gordon Brown could call a March election.

Person holding red box

The Treasury civil servants are all working towards a spring Budget and Brown would be pilloried if he went to the country without telling voters what economic horrors might lie ahead.

So, it looks like we're back to May which is, incidentally, where I've always assumed we'd be.

PS. In the run-up to that election we will, it seems, be seeing even more of Peter Mandelson. Number 10 are pushing for weekly televised ministerial briefings replacing, on one day a week, those made by the prime minister's official spokesman. It won't always be Mandelson taking them but, no doubt, whenever there are problems facing the government it will be. Some have suggested that the first secretary of state etc may also become "information minister". Friends tell me that "he has quite enough titles already".

The real debate has scarcely begun

Nick Robinson | 13:03 UK time, Tuesday, 10 November 2009

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Dressed in a dark suit and sombre tie, his voice deeper and more gravelly than usual - suggesting he'd had even less sleep than usual - and with damp eyes occasionally glistening in the camera lights, Gordon Brown sought to limit the damage created by a carelessly written letter to the mother of a soldier killed in Afghanistan.

Gordon BrownThe prime minister's tone was, at times, painfully personal as he strove to demonstrate the emotional connection which modern politics demands and with which he is so obviously uncomfortable.

So, after describing himself as "shy" he insisted that he did "feel the pain of those who'd lost loved ones". Without directly referring to the death of his own baby daughter, he declared that "I'm a parent who understands the feelings when things go dreadfully wrong".

His message was that he had been trying to offer comfort, to do his duty and would never have intended to cause further grief.

Like any public gathering a prime ministerial news conference develops its own mood and personality. Often with Gordon Brown it's been one of irritation or anger at his unwillingness to answer straight questions.

On this occasion though the mood was more sympathetic. Many journalists know first-hand that Gordon Brown has poor eyesight and poor handwriting and feel that his staff should have checked this letter and prevented it from being sent.

They know that the prime minister struggles to express sincerely held emotions. They know that the Sun is out to get him and is channelling the raw grief of those who have lost family in Afghanistan to do so. It's clear from the phone-ins, the text messages, the blogs and the like that many share that sympathy.

It is equally clear, though, that many will feel passionately that the prime minister has got it wrong again. They will point out that the prime minister said he'd apologised to Jacqui Janes when in fact he only did so in a statement issued the day after they spoke on the phone.

They will feel that he tried to explain away her anger about the lack of equipment for British troops by putting it all down to her grief. They will feel that Gordon Brown himself used the emotions surrounding Remembrance Day, the return of five more bodies from Helmand Province and even his own personal grief to avoid the tough questions about Afghanistan.

People's reaction to this story will, in large part, be determined by their pre-existing attitude to Gordon Brown and to the continuing presence of British troops in Afghanistan.

What must follow now - at least once President Obama unveils his plan - is a debate about whether there is another strategy which would more effectively safeguard Britain.

Gordon Brown made clear that he'd looked at and rejected the option of bringing the troops home and creating "Fortress Britain" with money saved.

He made plain that he'd examined and rejected the idea of focussing the military effort exclusively on al-Qaeda while ignoring the rise of the Taliban.

The real debate - beneath all this anguish - is surely whether men like Guardsman Janes died in vain or made a sacrifice that is vital to protecting their country. It is a debate that has scarcely begun.

The party of the poor

Nick Robinson | 10:01 UK time, Tuesday, 10 November 2009

Comments (261)

You've got to be kidding. That's the reaction of many to the suggestion that David Cameron's is the party that will do most to help the plight of the worst-off in society.

And yet the Tory leader returns to that theme in a speech today. In doing so, he's trying to resolve a contradiction that many saw in his party conference speech.

On the one hand, here was his passionate denunciation of Labour's failure to help the poor, something that brought the conference unexpectedly to its feet. On the other, there was his repeated attack on "big government".

Today, in the Hugo Young lecture, Mr Cameron will try to insist that there is no contradiction. His argument is a simple one and an important one.

Big government, he claims, has been tried by Labour, and it has failed. The alternative, though, is not no government - not a return, in other words, to the Thatcherite ideology of rolling back the state. Instead, he argues in a striking phrase, "we must use the state to remake society".

What does that mean? It appears to mean changing the welfare rules while using government to sponsor, to encourage and to avoid holding back social entrepreneurs and community activists. Anti-Tory sceptics will argue that this is in reality simply code for Thatcherite rolling back of the state and will end with the same result: more poorer people.

Some Tory sceptics worry that, although David Cameron's intentions are good, he may simply not be able to replicate the inspired community activism of those like Debbie Scott, whose peerage is being announced today.

Whoever is right, Mr Cameron's speech is well worth studying for anyone who wants to understand what a future Conservative government might do. And if he fails to deliver, it's something that will be returned to again and again, if Cameron is elected.

PS: A young rising Tory star, Grant Shapps, the party's housing spokesman, has written an interesting piece in the Telegraph in which he argues that Tory concern for the poor is not new and is not spin. He points out that Crisis, the charity that deals with homelessness, was co-founded in1967 by Iain Macleod, the great reforming shadow chancellor.

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