Israel's critical timing - from start to finish
On the Israel-Gaza border - Timing is a critical factor in war. Having chosen with great skill the moment to start its onslaught on the crowded Palestinian territory, there are signs that Israel's government does not quite know when it should end.
The launch of Israel's campaign, 10 days ago, could not have been better timed. It caught the world's political elites on holiday, unable to concert an effective response, even if they had been minded to, and it caught Hamas, which runs Gaza, on the hop too. Hamas had ended a six month ceasefire with Israel but the Islamic movement's leadership did not apparently reckon on such a swift response from its enemy - as a consequence a majority of those killed in the first few days of bombing were party members, security men, and police who had not been dispersed for their own safety.
America's upcoming change of administration also played a key role in choosing this moment. Those Palestinian factions or the Lebanese movement, Hezbollah, that might have been tempted to act elsewhere in solidarity with the people of Gaza have not so far done so. Some feel this may be due to their reluctance to get off on the wrong foot with the Obama Administration.
It is however a different electoral cycle - Israel's - that is now greatly complicating the decisions about how far to push this military action. Within the government of outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert there are differing views. Tzipi Livni, the Foreign Minister and his successor as leader of the Kadima party, reportedly favours pushing on until the Hamas government in Gaza collapses. The Defence Minister (and former prime minister) Ehud Barak apparently favours more limited objectives of creating a longer term cease fire with the Hamas government. His Labour Party will be battling Ms Livni's at the polls next month.
So Mr Olmert will have to referee this disagreement among his Cabinet members. In the meantime, other factors in the timing equation will militate against open-ended action in Gaza. With stark reports of infrastructure collapsing within the strip as well as more than 540 dead at the time of writing, the growing cost of this offensive is creating ripples of outrage around the world.
Many Israelis don't care too much about that - or rather they put their own security first - but the longer this goes on the greater the possible damage to relations with the United States and the possibility that Hezbollah or one of its Palestinian allies will launch attacks across the Lebanese border. There are risks too that if the Israeli army becomes too much of a static target on the ground in Gaza, its losses through suicide bombing and other resistance may start to multiply.
So the key questions about timing are now those about when all of this destruction should stop. Given these pressures, Ms Livni's more ambitious ideas about toppling Hamas may get shelved. But rest assured that however this ends both she and Mr Barak will try to take the credit for the timing of the campaign in the first place.
I'm Mark Urban, and I'm Newsnight's diplomatic and defence editor. I deal with war and peace around the world, so with apologies to Leo Tolstoy, that's what this blog will be called. No literary pretensions, just an attempt to drill down to the key issues - people around the world struggling for peace and security.
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