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Tuesday 26 July 2011

Sarah McDermott | 12:05 UK time, Tuesday, 26 July 2011

Growth in the UK economy slowed in the three months to 30 June, partly because of the extra bank holiday in April, and also due to some other one-off factors - including the Japanese tsunami. Chancellor George Osborne said the growth was good news, but Ed Balls accused him of choking the recovery.

Tonight Paul Mason will give us his analysis, and David Grossman will explain the politics.

Then, with a year to go until the 2012 Olympics, Peter Marshall visits the Olympic Park in east London to find out if pledges that were made to win the event - including leaving behind a lasting physical legacy and inspiring two million people to take up sport and physical activity - will be fulfilled.

Author Iain Sinclair, who is sceptical about the London project, explains his feelings about London 2012, and we'll be joined by the athlete-turned-ambassador who led London's bid, Lord Coe, the Welsh athlete Baroness Grey-Thompson, and writer Will Self, who has described the Olympics as a "running and jumping festival".

Join Jeremy at 2230 on BBC Two.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    cannot believe a word George Osborne says, it is all excuse after excuse and very little substance, if Vince had more guts he would challenge him or at least tell him where he is going wrong which a blind gnat could do......

  • Comment number 2.

    Chancellor George Osborne said the growth was good news, but Ed Balls accused him of choking the recovery.

    Which economic genius will Newnighty's finest err in favour of?

    Tonight Paul Mason will give us his analysis, and David Grossman will explain the politics.

    Answers on a postcard.

    Not even trying very hard any more, really, are you?

    What we need is more Paxman style 'interviews'.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8o2QqcFRyg

    When the subject demands it, of course.

  • Comment number 3.

    As part of the day job I surf many 'green' sites. All sorts. Big and small. Sift enough soil and you can find diamonds (ie: eco ideas that have a decent enviROI and chance of working).

    But it is amazing what you can stumble over...

    @grist Grist.org - Norway terrorist is a climate change denier - http://ow.ly/5N5jt

    I don't sense it's satire. Is this barn door tarring by any association a global thing?

    Time to warm up 'ole Ethical Justin if he's still hibernating over there?

  • Comment number 4.

    "TONIGHT PAUL MASON WILL GIVE US HIS ANALYSIS"

    Well, if it is calculated to +/- 0.1% accuracy again, I shall be heard by my neighbours screaming: "WHAT IS THE ERROR BAND!"

    It’s not economics, it’s not maths, it’s LOGIC!

    I'll get me Abacus.

  • Comment number 5.

    Having waited 48 hours, there were no insights offered on Breivik’s Manifesto on Monday's newsnight. What prevented the Norway police to send a police helicopter to examine the island and confirm if more manpower was needed to deal with the perpetuator(s).

    What does Breivik heavily copying from the Una Bomber and Timothy McVeigh ideas imply when the latter two never fought multi-culturalism or Muslim presence in the West?

    Investigative journalism expects a thorough examination of sources from which Breivik got inspiration and if those could equally affect others.

  • Comment number 6.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 7.

    INTERESTING

    My #6 was entitled: "IN TIMES OF UNIVERSAL DECEIT TELLING THE TRUTH IS AN ACT OF REBELLION."

    As others have been moved to point out; NewsyNighty is clearly on the side of Universal Deceit. I am too disheartened to go the redaction route.

    Deceit wins OK?

    Nuff sed

  • Comment number 8.

  • Comment number 9.



    Perchance.....


    Last night’s programme more than clearly indicated an almost insurmountable broad gap that exists between ‘them’ and ‘us’.

    And, unfortunately, the gap seems to be getting wider every day.

    The chasm was highlighted as at it’s worst not by it’s subject matter(s), not by the ‘presentation’, not by the interviewees ..... but by the Interviewer!

    On one hand we have almost slave-like courtesy and deference, whilst the other came across as almost ‘straight for the heart‘ aggression.

    (At this point it’s essential to mention an element of bias on my part; Sir J is the best thing about the programme! But ..... )

    What the redacted was the ‘interview’ with the EDL all about?

    All that came from it was to emphasise the point that the interviewee was pretty hot under the collar about i.e. - in my choice of words - the media has it’s own agenda which is, more often than not, to avoid listening!

    Let me ask the production team .......

    Does that in some way go to explain why the audience figures are dropping?

    Is listening to the ‘plebs’ really such a ‘no-no’?

    Is it a condition of employment that on-off switches are present on ear lobes?

    Would hacks become JSA stats if they upset the ‘Cleese classes’?


    N.B. The audience are here to be informed ...... Impartially!



    Anyhow, much more pressing matters .....


    Two Gorgons have left the island, the third slithers away leaving a heavily slimed trail that can still be followed by fearless heroes. Time is now in his favour. He lives, still under heavily darkened clouds, to strike many poisoned fangs into any, and all, that stand in the way of his demonic crusade. There will be no escape for the weak, the impoverished, the most downfallen, or the vocal - friend or foe! None will be free of foul plans and horrific deeds!

    All must cower ....

    Hmmm!

    Is that what was really meant by ....

    ‘We’re all in this together.’

    But .... Hey! The money trail is still there!

    And - last night’s - C4 Dispatches seems to have the will to follow it!

    So why not Nn?

    (Hint, hint .... Planning permissions and ‘charitable’ donations.)



    Have to say not too excited about reaching the ‘400 brick’ wall before finishing the ‘waffle’ so .... more to follow ...... switch off now should you so wish ...... Better still .... Ditch da pa'setamols! Dey’ll do’ya liva ..... Ovieezlee, no good fo’ ya healt’!


    400


  • Comment number 10.





    To continue ( unabashed ).......



    So, as starting point for a - sort of - hypothetical discussion (Thought! On a web-site, that’s pretty much an oxymoron isn’t it?) - let’s suggest asking a few succinct questions which may, or may not be, relevant ( to anything in particular.) ....


    Let’s call them part of a ‘Journalistic exercise’ .... Perhaps ?.....


    i.e.

    Which individuals - if any, perhaps none - residing in two adjacent places has, or has had, direct or indirect (i.e. spouse, partner, sibling. ) financial connections with a UK/overseas organisation recently in the public headlines?

    Whom, during the last general election campaign - at least - received any donation, financial or otherwise, to support their electioneering or political aspirations/activities?

    Whom has received ‘corporate hospitality’ unwarranted by, or not relevant to, their official role or responsibilities?

    Has any political party received large, or small, donations directly from said organisation or from any individual directly connected to same?

    Have any financial contributions or donations been made by said organisation to support or provide for any aspect of the ‘social structure’ i.e. bars, clubs, societies etc., of either place?

    How many ‘directly’ employed servants of both houses have or have had direct, or indirect, association and benefit with any employee of said organisation?



    Begin.....





    For those of you that are so desperately keen to ask ......

    The answer is ......



    You must be joking! ....

    Cynical? ....

    No chance!


    P.P. ( i.e. Post Post! )

    Sorry to see Crick go .... Good ol’ boy really!




    242.





  • Comment number 11.

    The Conservatives are all so embroiled in the whole news international debacle that I'm not sure we can believe a word they say. They are trying to dig themselves out of a hole of their own making, but are only digging themselves deeper and deeper. Their creditability sinks by the day, and their trying to cling onto power at all costs is farcical, plus it seems to be getting in the way of a proper and full investigation into News international

  • Comment number 12.

    I hope Paul's in good form...

    The reasons why growth are flat are pretty obvious - Osborne effectively devalued Sterling which was supposed to make our exports more competitive to "rebalance the economy" - the trouble is our main export markets in EuroLand are in trouble, so there is lower demand there - that's why UK manfacturing output has continued to fall despite a massive imporvement in their price competitiveness.

    But the other effect has been to clobber living standards with imported price inflation particularly on food and energy - so both domestic and export demand are weak and getting weaker as real living standards have continued to fall - hard. Add in £110 Bn of spending cuts equating to up to a £1Tn cut in aggregate demand just about to bite and you've got a flatlining economy teetering on the brink of recession.

    There is nowhere for growth to come from - unless you believe in the power of the supernatural - because that's what the libertarian coalition is staking our futures on.

    Blind faith - pure and simple - dogma that would do a Jesuit proud - faith in the "magic of the market" to bring the miracle of growth to the UK. This religion's core beliefs are that the economy is held back by "regulation", just as human souls are held down from paradise by the weight of their sins. The answer is, as GO said on TW@O, to deregulate the market.

    This is despite his very own Office for Budgetary Responsibility assessing his deregulation plan in the last budget as having a zero effect on growth within this parliament.

    Deregulation has been tried before - indeed it was "Light Touch" regulation that allowed the banks the freedom to.... lose their shirts the come cap in hand and demand £40k+ for every man, woman & child in the UK - the £100 Bn+ bailout.

    Deregulation directly led to mad cow disease - it caused the mis-selling of everything from mortgages to energy accounts - in the USA, it allowed the likes of Enron to run a rigged electricity market and milk Californians dry - what about the trader's Ponzi scheme which robbed investors blind under the self/deregulated regime of the NASDAQ? Indeed, you can argue NewsCorp could only have got away with NOTW precisely because the press is not directly regulated.

    Vince Cable advocates more monetary measures - but with interest rates effectively negative, that only leave quantitative easing - i.e. BoE buys commercial paper, so pumping liquidity into the market. The only problem with this is that the real effect of QE is opaque - and I'd argue a%

  • Comment number 13.

    QUESTION 7: WAS ELECTION LAW BROKEN BY THE CONSERVATIVES IN 2010? (#10)

    Correct answer: "none of your business, you get one vote every five years on our terms."
    While Parliament sits, your MP has the right to "decide where his first loyalty lies". IT IS IN THE CODE!

    Question 8: explain how the above came to be called 'democracy'.

    Nuff sed.

  • Comment number 14.

    Continued

    Vince Cable advocates more monetary measures - but with interest rates effectively negative, that only leave quantitative easing - i.e. BoE buys commercial paper, so pumping liquidity into the market. The only problem with this is that the real effect of QE is opaque - and I'd argue a quick look around the major financial markets right now reveals where that money is going - into commodity, energy and food speculation activities, whose main effect has been to drive prices up, so doing even more damage to the UK by further cutting living standards through inflationary pressure.

    Unless GO delivers growth at a much higher level, the Debt Repayment Plan will turn into a Debt Disaster Zone, as the gap between tax receipts and spending will grow and the level of UK debt will rise, not fall - i.e. exactly what happened in Eire.

    His obssession with supply side NeoCon dogma is extremely dangerous and we need a more pragmatic approach to debt repayment - say linked to selling off the £100 Bn of bank assets over 5+ years with the proceeds committed to debt repayment, whilst the deep spending cuts are reined in, with new spending going into capital works, e.g. social housing, which has the double bonus of keeping building workers in jobs AND delivering additional homes for hard pressed families.

    Clegg, Cameron & Osborne are fundamentalist libertarians - they keep the "One True Faith of Freedom" - and as with all religious zealots, anyone who disagrees is a heretic - there is only the One Faith - anything else can only be the work of the devil. Unfortunately the real world doesn't seem to bear much resemblance to the paradise they promise.

  • Comment number 15.

    #8 barrie

    Interesting link!

    How many will be bovvered to read it?

  • Comment number 16.

    #14 r b wrote:

    "Clegg, Cameron & Osborne are fundamentalist libertarians - they keep the "One True Faith of Freedom" - and as with all religious zealots, anyone who disagrees is a heretic - there is only the One Faith - anything else can only be the work of the devil. Unfortunately the real world doesn't seem to bear much resemblance to the paradise they promise."

    At last! ...some are beginning to think with clarity. But it may be too late.

  • Comment number 17.

    REFERENCE MARK: "THE PAIN:GAIN RATIO" VIEWPOINT OF THE ARCHETYPAL ZEALOT

    http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/transcripts/oralevidence-bydate/110121.aspx

    Start 260 minutes in, and NEVER FORGET as the Breivik story unfolds, and his culpability is measured.

    "THE PAIN:GAIN RATIO". Ponder those words.

  • Comment number 18.

    Snow in the North Island of NZ the other day !

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idKceFvO7AM

  • Comment number 19.

    What a let down the economic debate was.

    Paul Mason was superb - could have listened to him far more - but having politicians on who clearly do not, IMPO, fully understand the financial implications of what is happening in the UK economy let alone the global economy was pointless.

    It ended up in a pointless shouting match where none of them said anything of any importance.

    Was hoping that this item would have had some serious economic brains on who could understand the monetary and fiscal implications.

    You must do better Newsnight. Increasingly the programme is let down by poor choice of guests IMPO.

  • Comment number 20.

    ADVERTISEMENT (#4)

    Buy Bozo's weight-gain formula. In independently verified trials, the average weight gain in June was 0.2%.

    Form an orderly line - have the right money ready.

  • Comment number 21.

    :o) Thanks for putting Amy Winehouse's "Back to Black" song as a tribute - one of my favourite Amy tracks.
    I think I've sustained retinal damage from Tessa Jowell's pink leopard print dress! The Olympics a "mere snip at £7.2billion" too. Will Self pointed out he could create more than 40,000 jobs for that price rather than having a shopping centre and a training academy for people to learn how to sell stuff. Oh well.......seems like the legacy thing didn't work out at the last Olympics in London either.........and a stadium which has been built which is unfit for purpose.......It's going to end up like the crumbling Olympic site in Athens :o(

  • Comment number 22.

    Olympic tix- maybe Will Self is over egging it a bit, but I have to say, i know no-one who obtained tix for events they originally chose, and only one person of several who got any tix. The mistake we made perhaps to go for the low cost tix? I certainly did not apply for obviously popular events. The corporates and Seth Blatter and cronies have no such disappointment.

  • Comment number 23.

    NEW OLYMPIC DRIVE TO ATTRACT SLIM FOREIGNERS WILL CREATE PR JOBS.

    And another 500 Olympic jobs have been announced for attendants to act as 'fat bottom distributors' in the, rather narrow, stadium seating. Fat families will have to be split up, but conflict resolution training - and martial arts - will be given to job applicants.

    Blogdog - it's humour.

  • Comment number 24.

    RE : Tuesday 26/07/11 Newsnight.

    It's so refreshing to see anyone at the BBC give the great white Elephant that is the London Olympics a good kicking as a viewer of many BBC shows the default position at the BBC seems to be that of the 2012 Olympics primary cheerleader. I'm already bored silly with the whole concept and look forward to it being over and done with as soon as possible and hope they have the decency to tone done the coverage of Olympics 2016 and by then perhaps the BBC will have been able to move sport coverage to a specialist channel or lost all the rights completely so it does not cram up the network so much unwanted coverage of tiny niche sport that no one would otherwise pay any attention to if they were not mixed up with a Branding exercise. I don't work for Coca Cola or Nike so I don't really have any reason to be interested in this stuff. I'll count Newsnight putting the boot in a no doubt rare event compared to the BBC News family's tedious Pro Olympics gushing you get most days on BBC Breakfast.

    So Props to Newsnight for allowing someone on The BBC to put the boot in.

  • Comment number 25.

    Did something go wrong today they forgot to put MP Hottie Louise Mensch on today's Newsnight surely this must have been a booking oversight as she's been on just about every other show the last two weeks. I thought she'd have her own BBC Star dressing room next to Alistair Cambells by now. I'm sure she will show up again soon enough though (Grin).

  • Comment number 26.


    Obama Secretly Tells Banks: We’re Not Defaulting

    http://www.prisonplanet.com/obama-secretly-tells-banks-were-not-defaulting.html

    "While officials from the Obama Administration raised their rhetoric over the weekend about the possibility of a debt default if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, they privately have been telling top executives at major U.S. banks that such an event won’t happen."

  • Comment number 27.

    KOMISCHE MENSCH MENSCH OVERREACHED HERSELF (#25)

    As I recall - she ran away to Parliamentary protocol, and hid. No doubt hoping to return (like the Vaz) when other matters are prominent.

  • Comment number 28.

  • Comment number 29.


    Another must read piece!

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100011099/the-kabuki-theatre-of-americas-debt-ceiling/

    "If I am wrong, we will all need to take shelter in nuclear bunkers next Wednesday."

  • Comment number 30.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14300086

    "Twenty-one-year-old Tore Eikeland was also named by Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg at a memorial service on Sunday as one of those who died on Utoeya island."

    ""He was one of our most talented young politicians," he said."

    What is wrong with the Norwegian Prime Minister?

    You cannot be a politician, or even be considered to be a potential future politician at the age of 21 years of age!

    This is just plain crazy!

  • Comment number 31.

    #8: the same happened in Sweden. Both countries are now ashamed of that period of their history, and what they did. But surely Breivik was too young for that?

    #28 - the "EU Times" link:
    http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/European_Union_Times


    #29:

    "An epic battle is undoubtedly under way over the future shape of America: whether it should return to the frontier spirit and low taxation of the early Republic, or ratchet ever upwards towards cradle-to-grave welfare and Euro-paternalism. "

    let me correct that:

    "An epic battle is undoubtedly under way over the future shape of America: whether it should turn to the hierarchies and Class System of Old Europe, and the wasted and stolen taxation of the early Aristocracy, or ratchet ever upwards towards the compassionate, enlightened, and economically wise cradle-to-grave welfare, true socila democracy, and the decent lives for ALL that America promised."

    that's better, far more accurate.


    "“the political wrangling in Washington is intense right now. But these kinds of debates have been a constant in our political life throughout the history of our republic”
    “Sometimes they are messy, but this is how an open and democratic society ultimately comes together to reach the right solution.”"

    she reminds me of the waffle about the last elections 'leaders debates'.


    but an interesting article, i *think* he's on the right track, regarding the number of ways the default could be avoided. Although wrong on his understanding of what the US needs. Not many seem to be entertaining the possibility that a default on paying welfare bills/cutting welfare might actually be an intentional target?

  • Comment number 32.

    #30

    There are no (or very few) 'politicians' as the original meaning of the word intended, you are quite right. It has become a chosen mapped out career path to 'power' for those whom feel an internal need to seek it. Perhaps they were all bullied at school - who knows.

    The truth is there for all to see embedded in the style of language they use. They are in fact not politicians at all, they are 'power lawyers' . In their own minds they probably think it is the same thing. The difference is any intelligent naturally verbose kid can be trained through a system to become a talented power lawyer, a true politician has to be tempered in the fire of experience of life outside politics, think more of thers than he does himself and arrive at that career by accident or propelled there by a record of spontaneous noble deeds and / or sucess in fields other than think tanks, debating societies, banking or the legal profession.

    How many in the HOP would fulfil that criteria i wonder?



  • Comment number 33.

    THE LAYERED LIE (#28 link)

    The same smudged, but readable, surface fingerprint.

    Now the excavation of the upper layers begins - just as with 9/11. Will the 'Breivik' killings take ten years - or more - while the New World Order pursues its mad quest?

    WHERE LIES TRUTH?

  • Comment number 34.

    IF BURGLARS LEAVE RIGHTS AT THE DOOR SHOULD MP LEAVE PROTOCOL OUTSIDE THE STUDIO?

    Not a lot of people know that the MPs who posture daily on our screens, running the gamut from righteous, through caring, to disingenuous and on to hypocrisy, hide behind this protocol: "Please note that there is a strict Parliamentary rule that MPs can only help their own constituents" (Jo Swinson website).

    Any poor sap, democratically-disenfranchised voter, who writes to challenge assertions made on TV, or to alert the MP to germane information, is GENERALLY MET WITH SILENCE, or with a fatuous reply parroting the above protocol.

    NEWSYNIGHTY: Please strip all undemocratic protection from any MP who comes on your programme to posture and proclaim their honour and integrity.

    NO ‘HONOURABLE’ WITHOUT HONOUR

  • Comment number 35.

    '33. At 08:03 27th Jul 2011, barriesingleton -
    WHERE LIES TRUTH?'


    Possibly a good start is waiting until there is some certainty on what is known.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14303363

    'Norwegian domestic intelligence chief Janne Kristiansen has told the BBC no evidence has so far been found linking Anders Behring Breivik with far-right extremists in Norway or elsewhere'

    In particular before mouthing off or holding interviews based on preconceived premises. 'To the iPhone guest list, Batman! Haul in anyone who may have been sent something or published anything and call them to account!

    Questions will be asked... no matter what.

    But first... tell us your views, and we'll select the best to inform others on how the UK thinks. Or should.

    Are you in Norway? Have you been affected by the attacks? Send us your stories using the form below - In most cases a selection of your comments will be published

    That's 'form' as in box structure, not 'form' as in 'if it has any of the key buzz words or accusations you are soooo going top of our list of interviewees'.

    Of course.

  • Comment number 36.

    TERRORISM

    It is reported, that Breivik denies terrorism. Knowing some of the past applications of that term, in this country, one wonders how well it is defined.

    By way of example: in Newbury, the mix of bikes and pedestrians (with bizarre sinage and cavalier cyclists) results in a constant level of fear in pedestrians, who never know when the next (silent) attack will come.

    ARE NEWBURY CYCLISTS ANSWERABLE TO TERROR LAW?

  • Comment number 37.

    A NOTE ON BEING MISUNDERSTOOD (#31)

    Mork. I was linking the false 'mentally retarded' label, applied to the German war-babies with the rush to label Breivic 'insane' - with Norway as the common factor.

    I repeat: there is a precise parallel (even identity) between Blair's "PAIN:GAIN RATIO" (visit the Chilcot archive - last part of 2nd Blair appearance) and Breiviks assertion that, despite the horror of it, he BELIEVED it had to be done FOR THE FUTURE GOOD OF MANKIND. Is this not Breivic assessing HIS PAIN:GAIN RATIO, and 'finding it good', just as Blair did?

    BBC have shown a photo gallery of dead from the Norway atrocity; nothing similar was ever done for the Iraqi dead.

    We may no longer be a Christian country per se, but we aspire to Christian principles, and Blair purports, overtly, to be Christian. In Britain (and other 'civilised nations) 'Good Men' are doing a great deal of nothing - good questions are not being pressed - and EVIL IS HAVING A BALL.

  • Comment number 38.

    '36. At 08:45 27th Jul 2011, barriesingleton - Knowing some of the past applications of that term, in this country, one wonders how well it is defined.'

    Cautious of the hacking that's tickedy boo at such as GCHQ, it was interesting what was invoked to assess, for instance, how laden your bin was.

    Noting that many involved at high level in that are now well on the way to being eased back into our affections via the BBC green room.

    As pre-judging by loose association is now all the rage, one has to feel that inviting so many with interesting pasts to grace the Newsnight comfy chairs to share their wisdom is often very brave

  • Comment number 39.

  • Comment number 40.

    the cut in spending power

    how much money is taken out the economy by migrants sending money home and PFI companies based offshore?

    Gold for Hot Air

    the more people you need to tell you the benefits because they are not self evident the more likely there aren't any benefits.

    wealth creation is by making things and selling them. a shopping centre selling chinese goods is just an imperial outlet for china.

  • Comment number 41.

    BILLY THE SPUD MAKES A FINE EMPEROR (AND THE SUIT LOOKS EXPENSIVE)

    I have been 'absorbing' Hague's palpable joy at 'doing the statesman'. He knew, in his teens, this is what he was made for.

    And if anyone can handle the 'PAIN:GAIN' RATIO, and only feel the latter, it is our Billy. He is like one of the gods of Olympus, moving human 'pieces' about, and watching the human pieces fly about.

    Once again, Johnnie Foreigner is expendable - for his own good. Billy has seen the future, and it 'works' - for Billy.

    What chance the UN will pass a resolution stating that arms sales are tantamount to 'harming civilians'; the prevention of such harm, being the basis for Billy's war?

    Oh - it's all going shock-n-awfully well.

  • Comment number 42.

    HEALTH WARNING (#39 link)

    Just about the most unbalanced wrangle I have ever heard. Piers Corbyn was ill advised to be there.

  • Comment number 43.

    I couldnt really see what point Iain Sinclair was trying to make in his film. His film showed him unable to walk round the lake in Victoria Park, but he didnt say that this is because the park is being refurbished - in time for the Olympics
    He complains that the Olympic site has got hoardings around it preventing access - yes it has while its a building site. After the games it will be a new park opening up walking routes across land that wasnt open to the public before, and too contaminated to do anything with. The walks along the river were intimidating to people before, the Olympic refurbishments will allow more people access. He talks about one closed sports club, which as far as I can see was nothing to do with the Olympics, yet he doesnt mention schemes like Park to Podium, an Olympic scheme which has seen a major upgrade to sports facilities in deprived parts of Greenwich. Sinclair comes across like a teenager whos fed up because a band hes liked for ages is suddenly popular.

  • Comment number 44.

    Q2 GDP figures

    The service figures predictions were general up on Q1, not really surprising as these figures include hotels and other hospitality business which the royal wedding no doubt helped.

    Manufacturing was down , but contrary to faux disbelief , there has been supply problems of Asian parts to our final assembly factories.

    If anything, it shows the inherent dangers of relying on such long supply chains for manufactured parts.

    What is the government or opposition suggesting to make supply chains more resilient ?
    I heard nothing !

    SME's and Banks

    It does not take rocket science to work out with the government borrowing £140 – 160 billion a year from lenders , this will have an effect on the availability of loanable credit for everyone else.

    If you or I were bankers , wanting to lend money to credible borrowers , would you lend your money to John the Butcher from Fulham or to the government with triple A ratings and are backed by general taxation ?

    This is why there is a credit shortage. When the government stops sucking the available credit dry, then banks will have to lend to what is seen as the more risky SME sector.

    So contrary to some views , the government has to continue its deficit reduction plan, as this is doing real harm to level of reinvestment in the economy. Shame its going to take them until 2015 to do it, but things should slowly get better.

    Printing of Money

    QE produces devaluation ,devaluation produces inflation. But given the comparisons between western currencies and the Swiss Franc , it would seem we are all devaluing, hopefully this is intentional. So more printing of money sadly can not be ruled out, even though in principal I am against debasing our currency. Wage restraint or even real reductions in wages would be more a honest way of producing the same effect i.e. boosting competitiveness. But this would cause more union marches and generally more disruption to the economy, when we very much need the opposite (less disruption).

    Olympics

    Might I suggest the real legacy is going to be the acres of prime real estate land, cleaned up at taxpayer expense, ready for new development.

    But maybe I am just being a cynic.

  • Comment number 45.

    44.

    Service sector figures - agree with you - but this sector now accounts for more than 2/3rds of the economy - it's too big, too vulnerable to factors like exchange rates - it needs to form a smaller part of the economy.

    Manufacturing down - again - COME ON! Cameron is right to say we need to rebalance the economy by expanding manufacturing - yet it continues the downward trend started BEFORE the Tsunami even though there's been a hefty devaluation - this is not going well and you know it.

    Longer supply chains - yes broadly agree - but this is all part of the Just In Time, Lean Management philosophy which inherently leaves businesses vulnerable to emergencies - and it mirrors what happened with the credit crisis, when the wholesale money markets overseas dried up, our banks were so exposed they went technically insolvent overnight - a key attribute of a globalised economy - if you want globalisation, you're going to have to live with this disruption from extraneous factors more and more often.

    SMEs and banks - YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT THIS - there was a survey published yesterday which shows loan applications from SMEs are WAY DOWN - banks can't lend to people who don't ask to borrow. The truth is there has been a steep fall off in UK aggregate demand, which means SMEs aren't investing because there is no market for new capacity - or in many cases, the capacity they already have. The world is awash with money to lend - where do you think all the liquidity injected via QE has gone?

    QE - again this is wrong. Your analysis is too simplistic - Yes, QE is in the first instance is printing money, but it is then used to buy securities from institutions on the open market, so the only effect is to add liquidity to the market by reducing the amount of investment grade assets available to institutions to buy - the asset is held in the central bank - the money is in circulation - they balance each other out.

    This is the important bit - at a later date when the economic cycle is at the top, the assets are then sold back into the market and the money is taken back into the central bank - and destroyed - in theory QE acts as an accelerator during slumps and as a brake during booms - in theory - the reality is that this additional liquidity isn't going into investment in the economy, it's being used to bankroll massive speculation on the commodity, energy and food markets and is driving up their prices, to the detriment of all.

    In the UK, QE is NOT government simply printing money and using%

  • Comment number 46.

    44 continued

    In the UK, QE is NOT government simply printing money and using it to pay its bills, so to argue that more money=inflation is correct, but that's not what QE actually IS - its supposed to be an extension to the way interest rates work - if the BoE MPC has any real connection to the economy anyway....

    Wage restraint - another completely wrongheaded assessment - where do you think growth, employment, profits and investment actually come from? They are all the result of economic activity - by and large ordinary people going out to work, earning money, coming home, saving a bit and spending the balance on the goods and services they and their fellow workers produced. So what happens if you cut their wages or allow inflation to erode their living standards, or take more tax off them? THEY BUY LESS - and if anything, we need to raise their buying power to generate growth, not squeeze them even harder. You bang on about competitiveness - this is simply a race to the bottom - yes we could all be reduced to the virtual slave labour wages on China, work 90 hour weeks and then we'd be REALLY competitive - get real - we can't, won't and will not compete with China - and unions are quite right to fight to stop the living standards of the British people being flushed down the toilet of "competitiveness". We need import taxes to ensure British workers can compete without driving their incomes into the ground.

    We are barking mad to go on with the delusion of free market globalisation - it's the root cause of job loses, low investment, global warming and poverty - the only question is, will this take the form of the global economic system melting down of its own accord, or can we take control and make the changes our society needs?

    Olympics - the real legacy should be in peoples' hearts and minds - a wider perspective, a new interest in participation in sport & culture, a tolerance and willingness to celebrate cultural diversity, as well as bricks & mortar. Yes we paid for the Olympics, but as any economist will tell you, the event is in effect a massive invisible export, with the money coming in to the UK exceeding the cost to us of staging the event, and if East London goes from a derelict, post-industrial wasteland to somewhere where businesses want to invest and people want to live & work, well it will have been worth it.

    Yes you are a cynic - bu you're not alone - the tone of so much of British society is cynical about just about everything - everyone's on the take -%

  • Comment number 47.

    #45 # 46 ref #44

    Hi Richard, please forgive, I've had to use some quotes as markers in a attempt to keep confusion down.

    “Service sector figures - agree with you - .... - it needs to form a smaller part of the economy.”

    I never mentioned size of sectors ,but I think everyone agrees that the economy needs rebalancing.

    “Manufacturing down - again - COME ON! ..... - this is not going well and you know it.”

    Manufacturing makes up 11% or 13 % (sorry can not remember which exactly) of the whole economy, therefore any disruption is going to look disproportional bad for that sector.

    “Longer supply chains - yes broadly agree - .... - if you want globalisation, you're going to have to live with this disruption from extraneous factors more and more often.”

    I think mixing banking with manufacturing is muddying the waters a bit , so please allow me to differentiate between the two -

    Supply bit -
    With more parts being IC based these days, the rate of change in these products can be very fast, so I can understand why companies don't want warehouses full of these parts.
    Actually I would like to see part manufactures brought back on shore using substantial tax inducements, this would provide more flexibility in the supply chain.

    Banking bit -

    Actually it all started hitting the fan when some accountancy firm said UK houses were 30% over priced , banks which had used their loan book collateral to borrow more money so they could vend more debt, then found themselves with a quite substantial black hole in their balance sheet. That then raised concern between banks of who was most exposed to the now defunct housing boom debt. That is when the banks stopped lending to each other for fear of lending to a insolvent bank.
    It is true that other property owning democracies which also suffered such a debt fuelled asset boom had or have the same problems with their banks.
    I suspect this is a question for the global/EU economy harmonizers to answer though.

    PTO. :)

  • Comment number 48.

    QE benefits the financial sector and the industries close to them. It was necessary back in 2007 because our banks were insolvent and desperately needs the taxpayers to bail them out. I don’t agree with the argument that QE is an extension of interest rate policy – the latter lowers the borrowing cost for businesses and boosts the economy. For QE to have the same effect, the banks have to use the money they obtained from QE to lend to businesses. As far as I understand it, they are using most of that money repairing their own balance sheets and not lending nearly enough to help businesses grow.

  • Comment number 49.

    #47 continued

    “SMEs and banks - YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT THIS - .... - where do you think all the liquidity injected via QE has gone?”

    This credit freeze has been going on for three years. People don't apply for loans when there is no expectation of the banks approving such loan requests.

    Maybe the survey should have asked SMEs “Do they think the banks would approve their loan requests ?” I suspect that might have been a more telling survey.

    Besides , as I wrote in #44 , banks, pension funds etc rather hold government gilts than John the butchers debt on their books at the moment.

    Ah the Keynesian “aggregate demand” argument.

    I take it you would agree that “aggregate demand” (consumption) should be funded from sustainable finances and not temporary borrowing ?
    I also take it you believe “aggregate demand” can come from anywhere in the world , if they are lucky enough to be able to purchase British services or goods ?

    And I assume you would agree that quality and price competitiveness play a important role in attracting foreign sales of our goods and services ?

    QE bit -

    The world is indeed awash with cheep money , just ask the BRICs.

    But I feel the question should really be , why isn't that money being productively invested here, creating wealth to allow for “aggregated demand” now and in future ?

    I would say it is because we are not competitive enough to sell our goods into foreign markets, so the money is used elsewhere.

    I don't want our living standards to go down , but the damage was done during the boom years , we spent our load and now we are poorer. Now we have the unenviable task of trying to earn it back , which is going to be a lot harder than it was to fritter it away.

    “QE - again this is wrong. Your analysis is too simplistic - .... - they balance each other out.”

    The QE money was spent on the secondary markets to buy up government gilts , as per the Maastricht treaty rules. Or should I have said 99% of the £200 billion QE money was used to buy government debts.
    All the liquidity went to the last Labour government, which oddly enough was nearing a general election year with a bankrupt economy. Forgive me for being a bit cynical.

    I would not object so much to QE if the new money had been exchanged for gold bars or anything else which would have kept or created wealth, but it wasn't.

    “ This is the important bit - ...... and is driving up their prices, to the detriment of all. “

    I know about retracting QE . I suspect , once the government stop spanking the money markets with new issues of paper, it could be used to control inflation in the economy instead of interest rates, to a certain degree.

    “You bang on about competitiveness - this is simply a race to the bottom - yes we could all be reduced to the virtual slave labour wages on China, work 90 hour weeks and then we'd be REALLY competitive - get real - we can't, won't and will not compete with China”

    I would check your assumptions. Modern manufacturing methods are very hi-tech , what the Chinese or Indians can do with cheap manpower , we can do with highly innovative automation.

    PTO.

  • Comment number 50.

    #47 continued even more.

    "Olympics - the real legacy should be in peoples' hearts and minds - a wider perspective, a new interest in participation in sport & culture, a tolerance and willingness to celebrate cultural diversity, as well as bricks & mortar. Yes we paid for the Olympics, but as any economist will tell you, the event is in effect a massive invisible export, with the money coming in to the UK exceeding the cost to us of staging the event, and if East London goes from a derelict, post-industrial wasteland to somewhere where businesses want to invest and people want to live & work, well it will have been worth it."

    To be fair to the Olympics spending , money has been spent on improving London's transport system , so there will be some lasting benefit to Londoners and visitors alike. That can be seen as a practical legacy.

    So whatever my cynical views were on the decision to hold it , I may as well enjoy the six weeks of competition.

  • Comment number 51.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

 

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