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Oscar Calling

Friday 24 January 2014, 12:25

Mark Kermode Mark Kermode

It would obviously be foolish to try and predict the winners of this year’s Oscars, so here I go…

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Comments

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    Blimey Charlie! I think you've nailed them. Spot on.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    Best Actor - Chiwetel Ejoifor
    Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto
    Best Actress - Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actress - Lupita Nyong'o
    Best Director - Alfonso Cauron
    Best Documentary - The Act of Killing
    Best Foreign Language - The Great Beauty
    Best Animation - Frozen
    Best Animated Short - Get a Horse!
    Best Picture - 12 Years A Slave

    Those are pretty much my predictions

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    Comment number 3.

    Do you we just predict the ones Mark made predictions for or for the entire ballot? If it's just the ones Mark predicted then I'm gonna have to be boring and agree with his picks though Jennifer Lawrence might nab best supporting actress.
    Predictions for other categories
    Best animated: Frozen
    Best adapted screenplay: 12 Years A Slave
    Best original screenplay: American Hustle
    Makeup: Dallas Buyers Club
    And obviously Gravity will sweep the technical categories

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    the obvious bet is

    Best Actor - Chiwetel Ejoifor - EASILY
    Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto
    Best Actress - Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actress - June Squibb
    Best Director - Alfonso Cauron
    Best Documentary - The Act of Killing
    Best Foreign Language - The Hunt - sucks blue isn't there
    Best Picture - Gravity - to make history

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    Comment number 5.

    Just to be a little pedantic, I'm not sure even if Gravity wins Best Picture that we'll have had a Science Fiction film win. Unless you take the very flimsy Space=Sci Fi definition, there's nothing futuristic about it, in fact given that it features the Shuttle it's almost retro.

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    Comment number 6.

    Best Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio has got to win an Oscar - his best performance to date and he has derserved one for so long now.
    Best Picture - I hope its Gravity
    Best Foreign Language - The Hunt for sure
    Best Actress - Sandra Bullock
    Best Director - Alfonso Cauron

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    Comment number 7.

    Darling Mark,

    So is the phrase, "good shout", it most certainly is. On many levels I agree with all. Personally I would like what you would but yes Doc, it seems that it will be what you predict.
    I understand completely why Upstream Colour did not get any nominations as it would be the landslides of all landslides, beyond landslide. I do love it so.
    Alas we have to deal with the most overrated of the year winning instead. Gravity and La grande bellezza (The Great Beauty).

    The Act of Killing is a deserved winner. It is a shame Blackfish did not make the final nominations but it had better consideration than that of Leviathan shockingly didn't recieve.

    Roll on the Kermodes.

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    Comment number 8.

    There's lots of discussion all over the place about Steve McQueen's chance to be the first black director to win the Oscar, so why's no one mentioning Alfonso Cuaron's chances of being the first hispanic director to win? Either way they're both brilliant at their jobs and I doubt anyone else has a chance so it's history either way.

    Personally I'm a big supporter of 12 Years a Slave and not as keen on Gravity as everyone else (which is more the 3D glasses' fault than anything else), although my favourites of the year were Before Midnight, Alpha Papa and The Act of Killing, so Oscar doesn't care what I think anyway.

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    Comment number 9.

    Gravity can't be called science fiction, surely. A space disaster thriller, perhaps, but not sci-fi.

    I think Mark's predicitions are probably correct, but I really, really hope American Hustle doesn't win Best Picture. I'd be happy with a Best Picture win for either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

    The Good Dr. has made pretty convincing cases for each category. However, I think Dallas Buyers Club has a much bigger chance of winning Best Picture than Gravity (though not as much as 12 Years a Slave).

  • rate this
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    Comment number 11.

    I think this year its easier to guess the Kermodes than the Oscars.

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    Comment number 12.

    What a wonderful world it would be if The Wolf Of Wall Street won every award it was up for and show that the Academy has some guts to acknowledge a true classic that will have a shelf-life of decades.

    Already Gravity is feeling a bit flavour of the month, Hustle will be quickly forgotten and whilst 12 Years is worthy do we really need a film to tell us that slavery is bad?! How about tackling MODERN slavery like those women in Eastern Europe forced into prostitution or what's happening to kids in places like Thailand.

    DiCaprio should win Best Actor, Hill Best Supporting Actor, Scorsese Best Director (71 year-old showing how tame all the youngsters are in comparison) and 'Wolf' Best Picture.

    No problems with Cate Blanchett winning though, wonderful actress.

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    Comment number 13.

    Blackfish was a weird snub but maybe many of the voters have shares in SeaWorld or something or didn't like Free Willy!

    How Hanks and Redford weren't nominated either was a real mystery to me and Rush cruelly over-looked. C'mon The Wolf!!

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    Comment number 14.

    I think those predictions are pretty wise, mainly because by the time the Oscars are called all the other awards ceremonies, of which the voters are essentially the same (especially important for predictions are the SAG awards, as the largest Academy voting 'body' is the Actors Branch) have all had their say and many people vote for the same thing every time...there are a lot of awards!

    That said, what is more intriguing is without the presence of both McConaghey and Leto from their respective BAFTA categories, this opens the door for Ejiofor and Fassbender to scoop prizes, both of which would be hugely deserved i may add; Ejiofor for his dignified and courageous nuance in the face such fierce hatred and injustice, and Fassbender as he is truly Satan incarnate and also to reward his dedication to roles and his previous work in McQueen movies, through which he not only made his name but has since become one of the most magnetic 'force of nature' performers the world over. EVERYBODY wants Fassbender.

    With those two predictions in mind, I think history has shown, whether unconsciously or not, BAFTA tends to reward British talent...and as a result, I wouldn't be surprised if at the BAFTA's, McQueen is crowned Best Director and Dame Judi Dench won Best Actress above Blanchett. It's an odd one but I look at Carey Mulligan in An Education trumping Sandra Bullock the year she won the Oscar. I want to add that I don't necessarily think that BAFTA voters made a wrong choice, I think Mulligan was outstanding in that breakout role and has since gone on to prove she is a wonderfully talented actress in every role she has done since (Wall Street 2 aside). I also want to say that Dame Judi is incredible in Philomena, truly outstanding. She offers everything, laughter, humility, pain, anguish, suffering, comic timing, the full gamut of emotions and again, if chosen, would not be a bad choice. I must admit I haven't seen Blue Jasmine so cannot vouch for Blanchett, who has gotten great reviews.

    Similarly, Stateside, the Oscars tend to go to recognised/respected American talent and they like the 'story' that accompanies the actors transformation, almost a 'oh heck, this person can really act' in the case of McConaghey - who to be fair is one of the most charismatic screen presences around, loved Mud, loved Killer Joe, loved the Wolf of Wall Street cameo, he has upped his game, probably by choosing better projects, not lousy Jennifer Lopez romcoms. Again you look to Sandra Bullock for The Blindside for evidence of that.

    Regards Best Director, 12 Years is one of the most affecting, tragic and important movies ever made. I watch a lot of films and haven't been as emotionally drained and provoked for a very long time and all that is through the choices McQueen has made. It is so bold and brazen, no sugarcoating, supremely well directed and showcases a person now fully comfortable in his role as a Film Director, he achieved exactly what he was trying to set out to do.

    Now I don't discredit the vision of Cuaron by saying he shouldn't win, the four years it took to even bring the film to life is testament to that and in many ways if he wins the Oscar it's probably more a token 2nd place award and recognition that the film was better than many expected. It was a huge risk and credit to David Heyman and Cuaron for sticking to their guns, and box office returns are evidence enough that it was worth it.

    BUT honestly, Gravity is brilliant nailbiting fun...it's not a life changing film. 12 Years stays with you, makes you question history, examine society now. It's a masterpiece and I will be saddened if McQueen isn't given his due credit.

    On a side issue, bet you that Gravity wins Oscar for Cinematography, even though it's look was predominantly created via VFX - which rightly should get awards for their craft and artistry in the tech categories. Look at Avatar, look at Hugo, look at Life of Pi....voters think visual spectacle = great cinematography. I had a chat with a recognised DoP about this re: Life of Pi and he said the same thing. If they knew what artistry is, then Roger Deakins for Prisoners should win. The camera becomes a character, it's all practical source lighting, it's not fancy but tells the story so well...plus he hasn't won an Oscar yet...a crime beyond all Oscar crimes! in 2007 he was nominated TWICE...and still didn't win...

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    Comment number 15.

    I'm not that bothered by the awards process as it's just a marketing tool.

    However, it is interesting to note that if Gravity does somehow win best picture then it would indeed make history. Not because it'll be the first Sci-Fi film to do so (as already mentioned above, it's not Sci-Fi), but because it'll be the least deserving film to do so. Gravity is just a bit fun, a bit of fluff, which does nothing and says nothing. It pleasantly entertained for ninety minutes without needing to use my brain, and if it shows up on tele in the future then I might well sit and watch it again; but that's all.

    If justice were done then 12 Years a Slave would win everything it's up for; so that's not going to happen, is it?

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    Comment number 16.

    I think you've called it right.

    As long as Final Destination: Space doesn't win Best Picture, I'm happy.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 17.

    If Gravity wins best film , that will indeed be a tragedy. Even Hustle for all its flaws, outclasses Gravity in acting ,characters and plot.
    People say the Oscars dont matter, well this year they really really do !. In the history of Indonesia its very important that `The Act of Killing` wins this Oscar.The acceptance and recognition that will come from this, means for decades they will HAVE to talk about it, and what it means to their society. This film forces this country to look in the mirror, and be honest about itself .What it has been and what it is now. If ever a man deserved an Oscar its Joshua Oppenheimer, Good luck to him !

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    Comment number 18.

    My two pennyworth is...

    McQueen best director, Gravity best film.

    Yes the academy likes: A) Historical costume dramas. B) Films about heavyweight social/political issues. C) British actors - and 12 Years a Slave has all three – but it also likes movies that do big box office, look great on screen and feature (American) household names doing good acting.

    To reward both: McQueen best director, Gravity best film.

    Best adapted screenplay to 12 Years a Slave. Gravity - lots of technical awards.

    Bullock might just win best actress… then again the academy does like British actresses, but only a small audience will go and watch Blue Jasmine.

    Bullock has A) made a comeback to the big time B) moved away from comedy roles and C) proved her acting chops – all things the academy likes.

    You’re probably right about McConaughey. He’s on a career roll and as Bale (Fighter) and Hanks (Philadelphia) have shown weight loss and suffering for your art is a way to Oscar success.

    Dicaprio probably will win one day, but not for Wolf. It’s an audience divider and the mainly elderly academy members won’t like it much. Jonah Hill is a dark horse contender for best support though but faces strong competition from Fassbinder.

    Best supporting acress. Lupita Nyong'o is a strong candidate, but the academy does like to throw the odd curveball, possibly June Squibb for Nebraska.

    Best animated. I see it as a three horse race between Frozen, Croods and Hayao Miyazak’s The Wind Rises.

    Wind Rises is Miyazaki’s final film now he’s retiring. If the academy has any sense he’ll win. (If Despicable Me 2 wins it’s a travesty, then again Hollywood loves big box office.)

    Next year will be Hobbit year. Not as many nom’s as LOTR, but the academy likes to reward the final episode of big cash making trilogies.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 19.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 20.

    "12 Years A Slave" bored me rigid so I expect it will win everything - Oscar loves all things unentertaining and worthy. "Her" and "Dallas Buyers Club" are my two favourite films of the year which is really bad news for the chances of McConaughey and Phoenix although I suspect the lure of that old favourite, a man in make-up and a wig, will prove too much for the Academy to resist therefore Jared Leto should be okay. Cate Blanchett's performance is so good that even Oscar can't get the best actress category wrong so at least one person who deserves an Academy Award will be getting one this year.......that's one more than usual.

    ......I really hate the Oscars!

 

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Outspoken, opinionated and never lost for words, Mark is the UK's leading film critic.

This twice-weekly video blog is the place where he airs his personal views on the things that most fire him up about cinema - and invites you to give your own opinions.

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