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Formula One Weather Forecast: German Grand Prix 2010

Ian Fergusson | 08:59 UK time, Monday, 19 July 2010

Hockenheim, 23-25 July 2010 (Round 11)

(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Sunday 25 July, 11:00hrs BST)

Quick Links:

 

Nowcast / Forecast Updates:

SUN 10:50HRS BST: OK, one more update then! It's been a sunny morning in Hockenheim, but cloud is tending to increase from the west and we'll see varying degrees of convective infill (stratocumulus) during the afternoon with sunny spells, offering the small chance of light scattered showers as mentioned in previous forecasts. Indeed as you'll note these also in the BBC's graphical web forecast (link above), which is directly driven by the Met Office's Global Model output. However, there's no prospect of the sort of heavy showers seen during Friday and (in places) on Saturday, so the race will be a dry one... I very much doubt any light passing showers will dampen the circuit in any troublesome sense.

SAT 21:30HRS BST: A quick update - albeit just to say that there's little need to change the prognosis for tomorrow! The forecast has run pretty well so far since Wednesday (localised shower detail obviously aside), so the race is expected to run in the dry, as previously described here, with minimal shower threat. Unless there's a dramatic ( = weather!) reason to offer more updates tomorrow, I'll chat to you all again here in a week's time for Hungary!  Meantime, hope you enjoy our coverage tomorrow! Thanks for supporting this blog.

SAT 12:25HRS BST: Forecast continues to hold good - including the brighter spells post-FP3 - and local nuances in shower activity are now very apparent on radar. Heavy showers are forming regularly not far to the east, forced orographically by high ground. So far, showers above the circuit have been light and fleeting in the last hour with most of the developmental activity a little to the south, as well as east. 

SAT 09:55HRS BST: So, the next crop of showers duly arrives. Some of these could now turn heavier as the forcing starts to increase again. It'll be hit-miss in terms of wet spells from now to quali.

SAT 08:45HRS BST: Satellite imagery continues to hint at brighter / sunny spells developing with time (which will help dry things out considerably), albeit a cloudy story across the circuit at present. Some light to moderate showers elsewhere to the north, confirmed by latest crop of surface observations.

SAT 07:40HRS BST: Once again, Hockenheim has been deluged overnight with some heavy rain which has been clearing slowly southwards this morning. Further showers have followed behind, some of these rather heavy in places, so at the moment the forecast is very much as per expectations. The high-resolution models continue to offer a chance of some showers throughout this morning and into the early afternoon - around 5 - 10mm accumulation from now until 1200 GMT - with a steady reduction in % chance of rain as the day continues. It's be very much hit-or-miss fortunes at the circuit but at least the chance of dry running is pretty good. Satellite imagery also hints at a chance of brighter or sunny spells developing too, albeit these could help take temperatures slightly higher and provide sufficient extra 'oomph' to force some further shower development. FP3 will see residual wet track initially, but a dry line quickly established (if showers miss altogether - not guaranteed!). Qualifying has a fair chance of taking place in dry conditions, but with a few showers still possible. Effectively it's a radar watching day on the pitwalls as we see how the shower development / tracks phase with FP3 and quali.

Forecast Summary:

(PPN = Precipitation)

Emphasis: Wet running expected at times, Fri-Sat. Wettest conditions will be Thursday PM. Showers expected Friday, becoming frequent & heavier later; also further patchy spells of rain / showers on Saturday to give damp conditions especially AM. The race is expected to be dry or largely so with a small chance of afternoon showers. 

Friday: Variable cloud cover, with showers and spells of rain at times during the day, becoming more frequent, heavier and possibly thundery into the afternoon, evening and overnight. Chance of PPN 80%. Max 22C. Wind light WNW.

Saturday: Variable (and at times rather extensive) cloud cover, with showers and spells of rain feeding southwards through the early to mid morning; some showers possible thereafter into early afternoon. However, a gradual reduction in the wet weather % chance through the afternoon with some sunny spells developing. Chance of PPN 70%.  Max 23C. Wind light-moderate NW.

Sunday:  Variable cloud cover, with sunny spells and convective cloud increasing during the afternoon. Low chance of light afternoon showers, so on balance dry conditions are expected throughout the race. Chance of PPN 30%. Max 21C. Wind light W. 

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GermanGP-2001_APPhoto_Thoma.jpg

Remember this start at Hockenheim in 2001? Burti "does a Webber" in his Prost over the slow-starting Ferrari of Michael Schumacher.  The German veteran will be hoping for a strong Mercedes result in front of his adoring home crowd (AP Photo / Thomas Kienzle)

Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:

The German Grand Prix returns south to Hockenheim this year, where conditions have been sweltering lately and will turn so again into mid-week.

By Wednesday, temperatures will be peaking in the low to mid 30's C, before a cold front and shortwave troughs - associated with a thundery area of low pressure over Germany - moves eastwards during Thursday. A broadscale upper trough aloft edges east out of Holland and France, engaging some very high WBPT (Wet Bulb Potential Temperature) air.

This brings the potential for some very heavy (even torrential) downpours and thunderstorms developing across western / southern parts of Germany during Thursday afternoon and evening, as the hot, humid airmass is pushed away progressively to the southeast. I would not be at all surprised to see some major cloudbursts at Hockenheim - it's certainly got all the ingredients to be very wet as the pitlanes are made ready. However, at least the very worst of the weather we're expecting into the next few days will have passed through before the cars take to the track... but there's still every chance of some wet running.

There's now pretty good model agreement for Friday to see further showers - some heavy and perhaps thundery - although the latest ECMWF ensemble offers a fair spread of likely rainfall totals at Hockenheim all through the day with the heavier downpours appearing into the afternoon and evening. So, there should be windows of dry running. It's all about how the shower potential phases (or not) with FP1 and FP2; i.e., it's a radar watching scenario for the pitwalls - as will also prove the case on Saturday, too.

Of course, if Friday is wet for any prolonged periods, it'll prove bad news for those testing crucial new development parts - notably McLaren, who are aiming to further refine and introduce their blown diffuser for this race weekend. The teams will all be hoping for the current improving forecast to firm-up further.

Into Saturday, high pressure will start to extend and ridge eastwards from the Azores, slowly offering more benign and sunnier conditions across western Europe. However, with a vortex slipping south in the early morning and the upper trough looking slow to move east, conditions at Hockenheim remain unsettled and wet at times, especially during the first few hours of the day. GFS, ECMWF and MetO-GM / NAE are now all in good agreement for vorticity to remain aloft north-south; spells of rain or showers easing south during the early morning and despite tending to brighten-up and dry out, some showers are still possible into midday / early afternoon.

Sunday sees the ridge of high pressure continuing to become more firmly and more quickly established from the west. Forecast continuity is now improving, offering dry and hazily sunny conditions to prevail during the race window, but with some cumulus clouds building into the afternoon, offering a low % threat of light showers and temperatures in the low to mid 20's C and light winds. The latest UKMO-GM profiling suggests showers are a low probability and hence a dry race seems the most likely outcome.

Updates, as ever, to follow.....

 

 

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Very good point about McLaren, a wet Friday compromises everyone but particularly them. Japan last year had a wet Friday and was followed by an incident-filled Saturday

  • Comment number 2.

    Hi F1-Viewpoint; indeed so - - it's the very last thing McLaren would need, weatherwise, and they'll be praying for a major change in the forecast outlook. At least the weekend then steadily trends towards an improvement, but any time lost / compromised on Friday - if that is the eventual outcome - will be hard to regain, given their developmental aspirations with the blown diffuser... Best, Ian

  • Comment number 3.

    Another thing is that the tyres this weekend are the softest and hardest so a bigger gap than usual. Going to be an intriguing weekend!

  • Comment number 4.

    Looking at the circuit profile ( http://www.vivaf1.com/hockenheim.php ) that's a nasty weather forecast for the teams with the supersoft and hard tyre compounds in action and having used the grooved tyres the last time they were at Hockenheim. Race setup could be something of a lottery which will hopefully produce a lively race.

    Thanks for the weather updates once again - here's hoping this one pans out as predicted.

  • Comment number 5.

    I have to say I'll be a bit disappointed if Friday is wet and the rest of the weekend is dry. Kind of spoils it a bit, the only good thing being they can't test the 2 compounds. Would be good if we could have a bit of rain on Saturday too, particularly for qualifying, even if that looks relatively unlikely at this stage. Still, a few days to go, maybe the cold front will slow down and hold the rain back for another 12 hours or so (even if that means a dry Friday). Would rather have a wet Saturday if I'm honest. Throws up setup issues for the race then as well (do they gamble on a drier setup for qualifying so they're ok for the race, or go for a wetter setup and hope for the best in the race).

  • Comment number 6.

    Your wish could yet become reality, Stevvy. Latest GFS output slows - slightly - the frontal progression and offers a messy, showery setup for Saturday. The model(s) will continue to show this sort of timing and positional flux at this range, complicated by waves of forcing running up the frontal zone, offering some eyecatching rainfall rates in parts of Germany and 6 / 12-hr accumulations. Lifted Index (LI) values for Friday continue to offer potential for severe thunderstorms. I suppose my main concern is whether conditions become so bad as to wholly curtail any running whatsoever that day. Hopefully thhat won't be the case, but the next runs awaited with interest - alongside our UKMO mid-range guidance and Global Model output. Best, Ian

  • Comment number 7.

    Hi Ian, been meaning to post on these blogs for a while. It's great for us F1 / Weather fans the effort you put in here! I'm also on NetWeather so I read your musings on the winter we just had with great interest!

    I did notice that a few days ago GFS was bringing the Azores east on around Wednesday/Thursday which has obviously been pushed further back. Let's hope this pattern continues and we get unsettled weather in Germany this weekend!

    Cheers,

    Chris

  • Comment number 8.

    Well, some rain on Saturday for qualifying would be interesting, but if not, it's not the be all and end all, though even a wet FP3 and dry qualifying (after a sodden Friday) throws up it's own messy situation as they could have to go into qualifying having done no dry running whatsoever. I have to say, I hope things don't get so bad on Friday that we end up with a situation like Monza 08 (practice session stopped early, and if you didn't know any better you'd think it was late evening because it was so dark), or Interlagos 09, which was quite ridiculous. If it rains, that's fine, and to be fair it does seem relatively likely, just don't want it being so bad that rather than the drivers deciding not to go out, the race director has to red flag the session to stop them going out.

  • Comment number 9.

    Ian:

    With your weather predictions for the German Grand Prix does not sound so good....Here is my question for you: Latest GFS output (ps: taken from your # answer).....

    ~Dennis~

  • Comment number 10.

    Ian:

    To my original post what does GFS Output means?

    Sorry, for the double message!

    (d)

  • Comment number 11.

    Hi Dennis Junior: GFS = Global Forecast System, the model employed by the US (NOAA) for their national and international numerical weather prediction (NWP) and made freely available on the web. It's one of the models used when preparing these F1 forecasts, alongside similar ones developed and run by meteorological centres in other nations (e.g., notably from UK's Met Office; also from Canada, Japan, France, Germany). Best, Ian

  • Comment number 12.

    Seems like we could be heading towards (based on Ian's prediction for Sunday) a wet weekend with all 3 days affected. :O

    Should be an incredibly interesting 2 day weekend. Ian, does Friday look like a destined washout even if the forecast does change slightly, or would you say that's unlikely based on the amount of rain?

  • Comment number 13.

    Hi D_M_N, Just to emphasise my note of caution re Sat / Sun - the forecast continuity not great and so for now, I'm leaning slightly towards drier conditions prevailing, but with low confidence for now. Friday, conversely, is showing growing continuity and could be a real soaker but there's still time for this forecast to improve (somewhat) and take the heavier rain further south or east. I'm not banking on that outcome, however, and I'd imagine neither are the teams. Best, Ian

  • Comment number 14.

    Ah, fair enough. :) This may sound stupid (not being a weather forecaster myself!) but would it take a lot of 'swing' (can't think of another word!) to get Saturday to be 'wetter' than what it already is? You mention morning showers, what's the chance of the system slowing itself down into qualifying?

  • Comment number 15.

    Friday sounds pretty bad. Maybe the teams should pack some powerboats to drive round the track on Friday instead? It's certainly turning out to be an interesting forecast though, that's for sure. Wouldn't be overly surprised if the teams need to watch their radars on all 3 days.

  • Comment number 16.

    Some of you may have noticed how the BBC forecast graphics now outline a very wet story at http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/5018
    These are driven directly using (unmodified) spot data drawn from the latest run of the Met Office Global Model. Best, Ian

  • Comment number 17.

    PS: Latest Met Office medium-range guidance just sent to me is trending towards a wet Saturday and increased chance of light to moderate rain on Sunday. Will update the blog later as the model runs are further scrutinised.

  • Comment number 18.

    Looking at the latest update from the model I've been pointed to numerous times ( http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2 ) Friday actually looks alot better than anticipated, with Saturday still hit and miss, and Sunday probably dry. However, that's just that model which I've been pointed to before.

  • Comment number 19.

    Thanks again Ian, appreciate the information.

    Once again, for those interested in stat's and records, the Hockenheim preview is here: http://www.cliptheapex.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1903

    Overtaking breakdown back to 1983 is here:
    http://www.cliptheapex.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=822

  • Comment number 20.

    @Ian, it seems like we'll be radar watching all weekend. I will, however, be extremely annoyed if we get no wet action at all!

  • Comment number 21.

    I have to say, looking at numerous forecasts, most of them seem to be quite different, with some saying a high chance of rain all 3 days, some saying wet Friday and Saturday, Sunday dry, some saying wet Friday, dry Saturday, wet Sunday, etc, all varying though. Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out.

  • Comment number 22.

    Since yesterday GFS continues to delay Azores pushing east, in fact by several days now. Massive upgrade for the whole weekend.

  • Comment number 23.

    I hope by 'upgrade' you don't mean drier weather for the entire weekend.... :/ :(

  • Comment number 24.

    That's more than likely what he does mean DMN. If it was a worse forecast than originally thought, he'd probably say so.

  • Comment number 25.

    Well that's typical then, isn't it? I'll wait till Ian comments before getting my hopes back up. (unless its a rogue and an inaccurate update - not sure if that's even possible)

  • Comment number 26.

    Hmm, just checked the Meteo link that you provided Stevvy, Friday looks drier, Saturday and Sunday possibly wet - so it's slowed down a little bit in that the wetter weather won't come until Saturday now.

  • Comment number 27.

    Will have to wait and see. Personally I can't see every single session from the start of FP1 through to the end of the race being bone dry, equally I can't see it being so dry that there's not even any rain when the cars aren't on track.

  • Comment number 28.

    Quite a variable forecast it seems. First we were looking at pretty much certain washout conditions for Friday, hit and miss for Saturday, and probably dry for Sunday, now Friday could give us all sorts of weather, same for Saturday. This is a decidedly tricky forecast to say the least. I'll be annoyed if we end up with a fully dry weekend though (in terms of when cars are on track). Just out of curiousity Ian, what (if any) are the chances of overnight rain into Saturday morning and Sunday morning? Just wondering, given the fact that if they have to start from scratch with a green track, it makes things difficult for them again.

  • Comment number 29.

    Upgrade = WETTER weather :)

  • Comment number 30.

    just a hope and thought and maybe good luck charm 4 those who want a wet race whats the german for weather.. oh yeah WETter!! fingers crossed!

  • Comment number 31.

    I hope we get some kind of accurate estimate without much swing soonish, at the moment it looks like an utter ping pong ball.

  • Comment number 32.

    Agreed DMN, it seems to be changing all the time. Will be annoyed, very annoyed if we get a fully dry race weekend though when cars are on track, especially after Friday in particularly looked like a certain washout.

  • Comment number 33.

    Don't like the 10am update... :/

  • Comment number 34.

    Nor me. I'm bored of being disappointed (not that I blame Ian of course). Can't we have some rain this weekend? Please?

  • Comment number 35.

    Ah, but it's one of those messy set-ups where much will (and was always destined to) change! I do stress that the signal for wet weather around on Friday remains pretty strong. It's merely the troublesome but commonplace model variability that keeps it all at low confidence, by a matter of emphasis in terms of any showers v more persistent spells of rain; how much any dry interludes will dominate, etc etc. The worst weather will certainly come through later Thursday, but frankly if things remained that way through Friday too, it would be a real shame for spectators (and teams!) as much if not all running could be curtailed. So from that standpoint, any improvement is surely welcome, especially one that refuses to totally 'tidy-away' the prospects of some lurking weather surprises to emerge on Fri / Sat! The Canadian CMC modelling is by far the most pessimistic of the current crop, but worth adding that the UKMO's MOGREPS-15 precipitation modelling indicates an >85% of some rain across Hockenheim during the weekend as a whole. Clearly, it's all about how much, where exactly, and when. The next GFS run(s) will be interesting for signs of any better continuity. Best, Ian.

  • Comment number 36.

    The way I see it is with every update, the chance of rain continues to decrease...

  • Comment number 37.

    Same here, which given the incredibly high chance of rain orignally forecast for Friday, as well as quite probably chances of rain on Saturday, and a lower chance on Sunday, is extremely annoying. Don't really want washout conditions as such, but surely, surely, we're going to see some damp running at the very least......hopefully. Be a massive letdown if all 3 days are bone dry, after such high % chances of rain were originally forecast.

  • Comment number 38.

    By the way Ian, just on a slightly different topic (and maybe being slightly cheeky given this has barely been going for half a season), but do you intend to continue with these Grand Prix Weather blogs next season?

  • Comment number 39.

    Ian, I have a question for you:-

    I saw that EUMETSAT was used to aid the prediction of weather patterns and upcoming conditions. I so happen to have worked for a research group that is ran by Professor Phillipa Berry (based at De Montfort University in Leicester) that is primarily funded by the European Space Agency and has the job of calculating various forms of earth observation through satellite radar altimetry.

    One of their major projects is based on measuring and predicting inland water (river and lake) levels, in addition to looking at soil moisture and land elevation models. I worked with altimeters in the form of ERS-2, EnviSat, Jason-1 and Jason-2, in addition to TopeX. I think another colleague may have used EUMETSAT in some form.

    Do you recognise any of the altimeters I mention and could you give me a little insight into how you you use EUMETSAT?

  • Comment number 40.

    So, Friday now seems more likely to be wet, and possibly Saturday too. I obviously appreciate you saying about a low chance of rain for Sunday, and some cumulus clouds appearing, but of course there was a relatively low chance of rain for Turkey too, and a shower just popped out of nowhere (admittedly without properly hitting the track and making it wet), so that's certainly something to bear in mind, as I guess it's not impossible for us to see a shower just bubble up and dump itself over Hockenheim on Sunday. If Friday is mixed conditions, that of course causes problems for the teams (not much, if any running on the 2 dry tyres for example), and even if rain doesn't fall until after the practice sessions, it'd make the track green for Saturday. Saturday sounds like it could be very interesting though. I know we're 2 days away, but I can see a Malaysia 09 style rush at the beginning of each part of quali to try and get a dry banker lap in, just in case it rains. Looking forward to the next update though.

  • Comment number 41.

    Thanks Stevvy. I just had a personal detailed briefing from the Met Office's Chief Forecaster, no less! How fortunate! Hence the hurried last (important) update. The rain has now started in Hockenheim - "slate grey skies, so looks well set in here," Jonathan Legard has just told me from there! Best, Ian

  • Comment number 42.

    No problem regarding it being a hurried update, at least it was done. Have also picked up on the fact it's raining in Hockenheim. Noticed on Legard's twitter feed (and also another BBC colleague Sarah Holt) who've both confirmed that it's started to rain now. Really hope the weather blogs continue next season as well, personally I think you do a fantastic job with them. Very detailed, constant updates (including nowcast updates where required), you respond to people asking you questions and give small updates in your responses at times too. Been very impressed with it so far this season, especially in cases where the forecast had moved around dramatically, as it has so far this week, so we're constantly brought upto date. Very much appreciated. Keep up the good work.

  • Comment number 43.

    Just want to throw this in as well regarding how bad the weather is at the moment at Hockenheim. Numerous people at the track saying that there's a mega downpour, and 1 Twitter feed I've seen, has reported that the rain is so heavy, and the track so wet, that even the Safety Car managed to go off at turn 1, which is quite incredible, and shows just how bad it is. It's safe to say that had this rain arrived tomorrow (as it was originally forecast to do), the sessions would absolutely have to be red flagged.

  • Comment number 44.

    Autosport predicts: http://live.autosport.com/commentary.php/id/247

    - Friday afternoon wet
    - Saturday morning damp

  • Comment number 45.

    Any chance of your usual video forecast appearing Ian? Also, are you expecting any rain to fall after qualifying, thereby making the track green again for Sunday?

  • Comment number 46.

    Very interesting and intriguing news about Saturday, which could potentially shake the grid up if the track is damp or drying/could rain at any second type of scenario!

    Thanks Ian as always. :)

  • Comment number 47.

    Only problem there I guess DMN, is as we've seen all week long, the forecasts are changing so often, and so quickly, it's impossible to keep track, and to know exactly what's going on. Can easily see the Saturday forecast changing another 3-4 times by Saturday morning. It's been ridiculously unpredictable.

  • Comment number 48.

    Hi Stevvy / D_M_N - actually the forecasts haven't changed very much at all since around Wed - i.e., the threat of wet weather at times Fri / Sat has remained a consistent theme; ditto the prospects of a dry race Sunday. The localised nuances of shower activity and how it will appear (or not) at different stages of the day during Fri / Sat is a predictably tricky facet of the forecast. It's one that will always remain uncertain until nearer the time, once the high resolution models can start to assimilate actual rainfall radar data, atmopsheric soundings and realtime ground-truth observations. Best, Ian

  • Comment number 49.

    Well, it seems like possibly less likely that we'll get away with a fully dry 2 sessions today. Pouring down as we speak apparently, and could be like that for most of the day according to some F1 people on Twitter. Still hoping for some rain tomorrow as well though.

  • Comment number 50.

    Red Button guys just said Sam Michael of Williams said forecast has changed to rain today, dry tomorrow, wet Sunday?!!

  • Comment number 51.

    We're still going for dry or largely dry conditions Sunday, with possibility of some light afternoon showers but mostly across high ground. Threat of rain Saturday is a good deal less than today, but we're still expecting some damp periods.

  • Comment number 52.

    Thought it looked incredibly dark towards the end of FP1... then someone texted in saying thunderstorm in an hour! I think nowcast updates may be in high demand within the next 3 hours... ;)

  • Comment number 53.

    I think the possible thunderstorms may just miss Hockenheim to the east but we should see a bit of rain in the coming hours. Apparently there's going to be a lot more rain tonight.

  • Comment number 54.

    Anthony Davidson tweets saying it's started raining again at Hockenheim.

  • Comment number 55.

    Don't know if this corresponds with what you're seeing Ian, but Jonathan Noble (Autosport) has tweeted that there are 10 (TEN!!!!!) storms on their way to Hockenheim. Don't know if that's actually the case though.

  • Comment number 56.

    So unless a miracle happens, no dry running today.

    http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/germany.html

    A lot of orange bits heading up to Hockenheim, so I cannot see any dry running today, really - even though there is over an hour until FP2. (doh, I thought FP2 started at 2pm UK time when in fact it starts at 1pm!!)

  • Comment number 57.

    Hi James S / Stevvy - yes, the thunderstorms are real enough, as earlier noted, but were expected (thankfully this forecast is going exactly to plan... so far!! Phew). Our ATDNet lightning detection system from the Met Office covers all of Europe and can accurately pinpoint flashes to within more than 1km accuracy every 5 minutes. I'm keeping an eye on it alongside the radar. Hard to call how much running will be possible for FP2... bad news certainly for Lewis, who needs the track time (assuming they've repaired the damage!).

  • Comment number 58.

    Ian, are you expecting the storms themselves to hit before/during FP2? If so, are we potentially looking at a Monza 08/Interlagos 09 situation, where the track was literally flooded, and they had no choice but to throw the red flags? Obviously the track first thing this morning was wet enough.

  • Comment number 59.

    Probably post-FP2 on current expectations albeit very developmental now to the SW. Note my last update re tomorrow too (see nowcast at 1215, above).

  • Comment number 60.

    Ah yes, just noticed that, thanks Ian. Still seems like a wet FP2 though, just depends how wet. It seems like (possibly) Kubica was right when he said the first time they get to try the dry tyres this weekend could be Sunday (I appreciate a couple of drivers tried them at the end of FP1, but I'm more referring to the grid as a whole). Going to be a very interesting weekend.

  • Comment number 61.

    Wow... I'm really not sure what to say about the weather forecasting anymore! For us guys it's annoying seeing it change every 5 seconds, but I imagine for forecasters like yourself Ian you find situations like this intriguing where its impossible to know 100% what to expect even for the next day!

  • Comment number 62.

    Ahem.... http://twitter.com/MikeGascoyne

    Looks like being dry for the start of the second session and may even stay dry for the whole session, lets hope so
    5 minutes ago via web

  • Comment number 63.

    D_M_N, yes, welcome to my world! As earlier noted, the nuances of how much convective rain will fall and exactly where is really hard to pinpoint when forecasting some days / hours ahead for one small location and one very precise window of time re track action. Nightmare. But at least the thrust of the forecast (wet!) has been spot-on and as is always the case, once the situation starts developing the short-range forecasting tends to get much better. Tomorrow could get very interesting indeed.

  • Comment number 64.

    DMN - re Mike's comment; yes - he is referring to the current drizzle / patchy stuff across the circuit, which is not troublesome... and the teams are clearly pondering the trajectory of the heavier rain as I noted above with: "At least the heaviest rain is being held mostly south of the circuit presently, with trajectories of the next lot also fairly knife-edge. However it's a very developmental situation, so the current light rain / drizzle could become heavier anyway." We shall see.

  • Comment number 65.

    Ah, okidokes. We shall see indeed. :)

  • Comment number 66.

    I always seem to miss your video forecasts - when are they available Ian?

    Many thanks,

    Dan

  • Comment number 67.

    Seems like the rain held off until after the session, but the GP2 Qualifying was held in full wet conditions.

    Hope the F1 Qualifying is in similar stuff... ;)

  • Comment number 68.

    By looking at the radar, I can't see how there's going to be rain tomorrow for practice/qualifying as the wind moves it eastwards. I have my fingers crossed though.

  • Comment number 69.

    Autosport suggests: http://live.autosport.com/commentary.php/id/247

    - Saturday: damp in morning, drying
    - Sunday: Dry, outside chance of shower in afternoon

    (Although this time yesterday they predicted dry then rain for F1, when in reality we saw it the total opposite way, rain with drying conditions until 20 minutes after the F1 ended)

  • Comment number 70.

    Hmmmm, would be good if we could get a bit more rain, maybe have FP3 in wet/damp conditions, even if qualifying is then dry.

  • Comment number 71.

    Seems like you got your wish Stevvy. ;)

    Although I think conditions are brightening up slightly now - still, would be nice if we get one or two more showers before qualifying.

  • Comment number 72.

    Looking at http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/germany.html , there's a band of showers developing below Frankfurt, some of which could hit Hockenheim.

  • Comment number 73.

    Well, I know rain tomorrow is probably unlikely, but it does seem like showers have been popping up and developing almost out of nowhere (that's the way I read your 12:25pm update anyway), so certainly not impossible for tomorrow.

 

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