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Veep predictions

Justin Webb | 01:47 UK time, Wednesday, 20 August 2008

By the way, the vice-presidential candidates will be Joe Biden for Obama and Tom Ridge for McCain, notwithstanding this effort to stop him.

UPDATE: And some late news just in...

Comments

  • 1. At 02:20am on 20 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    This Biden guy can talk! How long does it take
    to say 50,000 words?

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  • 2. At 02:27am on 20 Aug 2008, SaintDominick wrote:

    On the Democratic side I would say it is going to be either Al Gore or Tim Kaine.
    On the Republican side it will probably be either Mitt Romney or Huckabee, although Lieberman is a possibility.

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  • 3. At 02:32am on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    Well, guys, I said it would NEVER BE CLINTON. If it is Biden, it is a good choice.

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  • 4. At 02:33am on 20 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    Rush is so "influential" that we should send him
    over to Georgia to stop those Russian tanks,
    or at least make them feel so bad about themselves
    that they pack up and turn around.

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  • 5. At 02:46am on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    2, Dominick.

    Never Gore because he is old news.

    Never Lieberman because the ticket wouldn't get Democratic cross-over votes. Also he is a weasel.

    Not Huckabee, in spite of his charm.

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  • 6. At 02:49am on 20 Aug 2008, TimothyR444 wrote:

    They are both terrible choices.

    McCain needs to appeal to conservatives, and Ridge does not have conservative credentials.

    Obama is on the left and needs to appeal to moderates. Biden is further left than Obama.

    It seems unbelievable that the candidates would be that stupid - but stupidity is rampant in politics.

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  • 7. At 03:29am on 20 Aug 2008, GhetNormal wrote:

    I like your certainty Justin. You have a penchant for over-confidence, though.

    It's Tim Kaine, all the way. Just look at the 30 minute video posted on Barack's YouTube site today.

    And John McCain would be crazy to pick anyone other than Romney. He has the tougher choice. Ridge is too close to Bush. He's somehow evaded the link so far, but he needs someone to set him apart. Romney could be his ace in the hole.

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  • 8. At 03:59am on 20 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    TimothyR444, McCain's problem is that he has
    tilted so far to the right during the campaign that
    now he needs someone on his left.

    Ridge helps him get the female vote, due to
    the abortion issue, although I'm surprised that
    he didn't pick a woman.

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  • 9. At 04:00am on 20 Aug 2008, RealFrigid wrote:

    Typically, they would choose a popular VP that would help them get a lock on either a large state (Florida, Texas, New York, California, Illinois), or they would look for someone with sashay helping to carry many centrist / independent voters (the unsure middle third).

    Barrak and McCain are both weak with southern (social conservative) states.

    I think McCain's best choice so far is Charlie Crist. It's a big state with lot's of transplanted New Yorkers, he's pretty green, and its a southern state on the opposite coast (assuming Californians will find affinity with McCain). That choice might not set well with the social conservatives, but their fear of an Obama presidency will drive them to vote.

    Barrack will get whoever Tom Daschle tells him to get.

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  • 10. At 04:02am on 20 Aug 2008, Jon wrote:

    So the 'candidate for change' will choose a running mate whose major claim to fame is plagairising Neil Kinnock?! Yeh Gods, it's like plagaraising the Beano! A terrible choice!. How can a 'change candidate choose a career washington man? The best thing that could happen to the McCain campaign, and I say that as a Obama supporter.

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  • 11. At 04:35am on 20 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    Oh, I've been taken in... I thought Justin actually
    KNEW!

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  • 12. At 05:06am on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    9, Real.

    Usually the running mate does not secure his own state, unless it is in the bag to begin with.

    I would argue with independent voters being "the unsure middle third." That makes us sound rather wobbly-headed. Independents tend to vote on the issues, or a specific issue, or a specific candidate for a specific reason. The party, per se, is not important.

    Because independents all have different priorities, it is difficult to court our vote. That delights me no end. We are a growing segment of the voting public, so devising a pitch should become increasingly difficult for our brave leaders.




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  • 13. At 05:50am on 20 Aug 2008, DougTexan wrote:

    Biden? The Messiah of change, change the world view of the USA with the current standing "chairman of the foriegn relations committee" LOL hahaha!

    This guy Biden is so,.. 1972. Yes, I said 1972, think Vietnam. I thought I heard BhO was going to 'change' the way business was done in Washington. Same as it ever was, follow the trail of money... and party power,.. so republican(esk) of BhO. Old world politics in new world skin. Fooled ya'll he did.

    Dang, whew, wow ha ha, ....

    Say what you will, I thought BhO would pick govenor Christine Gregoire of Washington, white, female and one heck of a political and correct dynamo. Eh, BhO won't listen to a Republican. Too bad, I might have to vote an opposing ticket if she were there. Google her or Wikipedia, this one would have been a great running mate. Biden hahaha.

    McCain, in the air, though again I'd go with a "white" woman, no reason for the white part, just thought it sounded 'right wing'.
    :)
    Sarah Palin of Alaska in my humble opinion is 'spot on' and not even in McCains headlights. To bad, alot of Dems would vote Republican with her on the ticket.

    I'm not being sexist picking only woman for favorites here, we, the USA need change, but it will come from a different form of thinking, not the same thinking style in a different color of skin able to charm a crowd. A female VP this time around, will get a Female President in four or eight (or earlier, God forbid).

    Ask anyone, men are from Mars and women from Venus,.. it is a womens perseptions and instincts, that will change the perception of the USA. Trust me, that'll give a different meaning to 'mother' here.

    opinions are like.....
    every one has one.

    g-night ya'll

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  • 14. At 06:19am on 20 Aug 2008, OldSouth wrote:

    Isn't Biden the Senator caught plagiarizing the speech of a UK Labour MP a few years ago?

    It was not even subtle--he copied the speech verbatim, with no attempt to attribute until he was exposed, if memory serves.

    Ya gotta' love it--the new Secular Messiah and his Vice-Plagiarist!

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  • 15. At 06:31am on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    13, Doug.

    On the subject of a female president, I would have been very happy to vote for a woman, if she had been the best candidate available. I have no empathy, however, with women who will vote for a woman because she is a woman. Or for someone who will vote for a black because he is black. In the case of Obama, I felt he was the best choice.

    I am not familiar with the women you have mentioned, but will look them up. Thank you for the information.

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  • 16. At 06:34am on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    14, OldSouth.

    What I don't know about the plagiarism is whether he wrote the speech himself or had somebody else write it. In a recent case, concerning someone else, it turned out to be the work of a speech writer.

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  • 17. At 06:44am on 20 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #13, DT, that's right, let's put a "typical white woman"
    on the ticket. That'll fix BHO!

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  • 18. At 07:08am on 20 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    Quote from CNN, tucked away in a long article: "On Tuesday, Biden drove a white pickup truck past a group of reporters and said only: "I'm not the guy. See you."

    #15. allmymarbles "I have no empathy . . . for someone who will vote for a black because he is black." Then you must have a poor opinion of those who obviously voted because of that - the overwhelming black vote in some areas cannot be because of unstated policies. As for "I said it would NEVER BE CLINTON" - the adage is 'never say never'. Perhaps, as in years past, the announcement will come after the nomination process and this frenzied anticipation is simply to keep the pot boiling.

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  • 19. At 08:10am on 20 Aug 2008, Young-Mr-Grace wrote:

    Biden is the guy who tried to copy Neil Kinnock!! Kinnock is not an inspiring role model. Surely Obama can do better?

    Remember that in these elections the US will be choosing the person who'll meet the aliens if any decide to land. The ET's will probably assume "our leader" to be the best and brightest we have (Thank Goodness none have beamed down in the last 8 years - humans would have been the laughing stock of the galaxy - although Cheny could probably have got a job on a death star in a galaxy far far away...).

    Plea from humanity - don't make a show of us.....

    You're all doing very well !!

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  • 20. At 08:16am on 20 Aug 2008, SilmarilUiMedb wrote:

    Just read this comment to an article on CNN:

    * * *

    William James August 19th, 2008 12:13 pm ET

    Al Gore is going to be VP, I just got the text message!!!

    OBAMA 2008

    * * *

    Can anyone confirm this??? I heard the Obama campaign might send out the news by text, but surely the news folks would have picked it up by now. I'm in Japan, and a bit hazy on the time zones, but if I'm calculating right that comment has been up for a couple of hours already. So - maybe a hoax/attention seeking??? Anyone know for sure?

    The original comment and the article it's attached to can be seen here:
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/19/gore-to-speak-on-democratic-conventions-final-night/

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  • 21. At 08:32am on 20 Aug 2008, GhetNormal wrote:

    SilmarilUiMedb...
    No chance in hell. It's wishful thinking my friend. But me and my wife are tied to our blackberries tonight - they're definitely trying to make this text messaging thing work. Even my friend of a friend at Obama HQ seems to be oblivious.

    It's amazing how one can get so into something so unimportant! What was it Garner said? Warm bucket of what?

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  • 22. At 09:11am on 20 Aug 2008, daniel-ryan wrote:

    Weren't you the BBC blogger who said that Hillary Rodham Clinton would be President in 2009 on New Years Day?

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  • 23. At 10:10am on 20 Aug 2008, RealFrigid wrote:

    In reply to #12, allmymarbles:

    "I would argue with independent voters being "the unsure middle third." That makes us sound rather wobbly-headed. Independents tend to vote on the issues, or a specific issue, or a specific candidate for a specific reason. The party, per se, is not important."

    Hi! Yes, it is not that YOU are unsure, but that the parties are unsure of where you stand since people you will remain uncommitted until the end. It's trended this way for awhile in America. There is a solid base for both R's and D's of about 1/3 each, with the grow trend being the anti-partisan middle.

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  • 24. At 10:57am on 20 Aug 2008, Mark wrote:

    Biden has said 'I'm not the guy', and the report on the speech is frankly ludicrous: at 160 words per minute it would take over 5 hours, and even at 200 wpm, it would take 4 hours ten minutes ... I've given 9500 words in 45 minutes and it was at a blistering pace ...

    So, Hillary and Edwards have shot themselves in the foot; Bayh and Kaine are just too uninspiring and conventional, however good they may be as senator and governor; which leaves Richardson with an eye to the Latino vote, or Kerry as a reassuring 'Cheney' figure. John Corzine is a dark horse (personal fortune as a Wall St banker, senator and governor, and a safe pair of hands), or Villaraigosa (the Latino vote in Texas and the south west again, his marital issues counterbalanced by McCain's own history); or a gamechanger.

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  • 25. At 10:59am on 20 Aug 2008, Mark wrote:

    Or, I should add, Nunn as a one term VP.

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  • 26. At 11:48am on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    "A senior Obama adviser told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Tuesday that Obama and his veep choice will appear in front of the former state Capitol where Abraham Lincoln once served. The last time Obama appeared there, he announced he was running for president."

    And What Happened To Sebelius?

    "A curious aspect of the recent VP go-around has been the relatively scant attention paid towards Kathleen Sebelius. The Kansas Governor once was seen as a frontrunner for the spot. She was the gubernatorial compliment to Obama's new generation, Washington outsider message. But while her close relationship to the presumptive Democratic nominee has always made Sebelius -- at the very least -- a viable option, confidence in that choice has waned. Compared to other candidates, Sebelius has not been subjected to intense speculation. (On Tuesday, for example, Bloomberg News delved deep into the lobbying ties of Evan Bayh's wife.) What can tea leaf readers make of this? On the most direct level, the silence suggests nothing more than that Sebelius is highly disciplined and not prone to unnecessary chatter or drama....."

    Any bets? ;-) ed

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  • 27. At 12:08pm on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    18, David.

    I said that "I" would never vote for someone just because he was black. What other people do, is what other people do.

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  • 28. At 12:40pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    The field
    Sebelius

    Since the mods seem in a tetchy mood today...

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 29. At 12:44pm on 20 Aug 2008, FenceMart wrote:

    For me there's only one candidate who ticks all the boxes for Obama's pick: Hagel. The selection of a popular, well respected Republican selection would be the best symbol of the 'change' message Obama's trying to sell, at the same time as defending against attacks that Obama is weak on foreign policy. Other advantages are that Hagel is a war hero and has his roots in Virginia.

    Hagel as veep would irritate some of Obama's base but it would make alot of skeptical voters look at Obama in a totally different, largely favourable light.

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  • 30. At 12:46pm on 20 Aug 2008, FenceMart wrote:

    But failing Hagel, I like Chet Edwards. Down to earth, popular with veterans and George W. Bush's congressman!

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  • 31. At 12:55pm on 20 Aug 2008, Candace9839 wrote:

    Not so fast on Biden. The announcement will likely come by week's end by text for Obama. McCain may well choose pro-choice which will upset the conservative apple cart, but it could be Lieberman, not Ridge.

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  • 32. At 12:56pm on 20 Aug 2008, SaintDominick wrote:

    Ref 24

    Gov Richardson has the executive credentials, name recognition, and as you indicated he would attract Mexican-American voters (not Cuban-Americans who are overwhelmingly Republican, and I doubt he will impress Puerto Ricans), but the anti-Hispanic sentiment that currently exists in the USA would make him an albatross around Obama's neck. Bear in mind that the so called "Hispanic" block is not an homogenous segment of our population and it is not only diverse but very divided.
    I think Gore and Kaine are the most likely choices, although I agree that a female with executive experience would definitely be a plus in either ticket.
    I still think Romney would be the best choice for McCain because of relevant experience and name recognition, but Condi Rice would certainly complicate things for Obama.

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  • 33. At 12:59pm on 20 Aug 2008, Candace9839 wrote:

    #20 I have not received a text message and I am signed up.

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  • 34. At 1:04pm on 20 Aug 2008, Mark wrote:

    28, Ed.

    Sebelius, yes, though I also think unllikely: where is the 'wow' factor ...

    And there is no email this morning, despite all of yesterday's hype ... in fact, I think they'll let Usain Bolt run the 200m first as that will probably be the last really big Olympics news story ...

    I still think it won't be the obvious choice, there's got to be a wow factor.

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  • 35. At 1:06pm on 20 Aug 2008, Candace9839 wrote:

    What is impressive is Caroline Kennedy managed to perform the vetting process in secret since no one still knows for sure, only Obama, his wife Michelle, a few close aides and (one would hope) the VP choice.

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  • 36. At 1:17pm on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    23, Real.

    Sort of gives people like me the last laugh, doesn't it?

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  • 37. At 1:21pm on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    29, Fence.

    Hagel is an impossibility. If Obama were to die his successor would be a republican. A definite no-no.

    In addition there are a bunch of democrats expecting a favor.

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  • 38. At 1:23pm on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    32, Dominick.

    I see Richardson in the cabinet. Gore is not going to get it. He has been around too long.

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  • 39. At 1:23pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Mark,

    I'm not sure how much the "wow" factor matters. Sebelius is very cool (in both senses), discrete, and capable. She may bring Ohio within reach (but that's a minor factor). She's not (to date) an inspirational speaker, but again, just how important is that?

    As your own response confirms, it won't be the 'obvious' or 'likely' choice, so ironically that reinforces her probability....

    Time will tell. It looks more and more like my 'short' bets against HRC will pay handsomely. ;-)

    Salaam, etc.
    ed

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  • 40. At 1:24pm on 20 Aug 2008, Mark wrote:

    35, Candace

    Perhaps because it is Caroline Kennedy ;) although I think she is a more likely candidate for Attorney General ...

    The Huffington Post argued that it is Biden 'because he will be the last to know' in order to ensure that there are no leaks ... What Obama certainly has done is keep the tension building ... and I don't think he would be quite that cynical towards Biden about his discretion.

    As for Romney, my problem is whether the US would really accept a Mormon being a heartbeat (or cancer cell) away from the Presidency. I'm still inclined to think he might opt for Carly Fiorina herself.

    29, 30: Hagel

    I thought the Huffington Post made a telling point that Obama would not want any superdelegate rebellion by choosing Hagel. As for Chet Edwards, that name was flown by Pelosi: it didn't get any traction which is possibly a good thing. I'm sure Obama would really love a top notch Texan to put the state in play, but unless that conversation with T Boone Pickens was about more than alternate energy (and I know he is right wing), I can't see who ...

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  • 41. At 1:36pm on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    35, Candace.

    It was my impression that Caroline Kennedy was a sort of put-down for Hillary. Do we know if she is actually doing anything?

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  • 42. At 1:42pm on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    40, Mark.

    The problem with Romney is that the Mormons are very exclusionary. If you are not a Mormon you would have a hard time in Utah. From what I hear, even in the military they favor their own.

    I am not going to vote republican this time, but if I were, Romney would put me off.

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  • 43. At 2:01pm on 20 Aug 2008, Candace9839 wrote:

    Re: #41. It was my impression the role was a serious one that she executed flawlessly
    Caroline the reluctant operative

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  • 44. At 2:02pm on 20 Aug 2008, SaintDominick wrote:

    Ref 38

    I agree with the likely probability of Richardson, as well as Biden and Bayh, being in Obama's cabinet, if he is elected; but I would not discount Al Gore from being his VP choice. Obama does not have to prove that he is an agent of change, he is change. What he has to address is his greatest weakness: inexperience, which McCain has been exploiting very effectively.

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  • 45. At 2:04pm on 20 Aug 2008, Mark wrote:

    41, 42. allmy

    My understanding is that it has been CK who has chaired the search. She is certainly the person Obama could go to for discreet advice. I think she is much under-rated.

    However, yes, it would be a huge put-down for Hillary, and one that suggests parallels with the Tales of the Brothers Grimm ...

    Your sentiment about Romney is exactly what I thought. If Obama does go for Sebelius or CK, expect McCain to choose Fiorina.

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  • 46. At 2:07pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    More Veep possibilities

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 47. At 2:47pm on 20 Aug 2008, BlackenedBoy wrote:

    Strategically, I think that Kaine would be the best vice presidential running mate for the actual campaign.

    With this Southern governor in tow, Obama could almost certainly count on Virginia's thirteen electoral votes being delivered into his column.

    Of the prospective candidates, though, Biden is far and away the most qualified to actually become Vice President.

    I hope and believe that Obama will choose the Senator from Delaware.

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  • 48. At 3:08pm on 20 Aug 2008, DutchNemo wrote:

    Joe Biden is most qualified to become Obama's running mate but Kaine could deliver Obama the swingstate of Virginia. I believe Obama will pick Biden as running mate because of his expierence on foreign policy, which Obama still lacks. But Obama could still surprise us and pick Republican Chuck Hagel to to improve his credibility among Evangelicals.

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  • 49. At 3:12pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/iraq/2008/08/19/pentagon-plans-to-send-more-than-12000-additional-troops-to-afghanistan.html

    "The Pentagon will be sending 12,000 to 15,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, possibly as soon as the end of this year, with planning underway for a further force buildup in 2009.

    A request by Gen. David McKiernan, the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, for three U.S. brigades with support staff has been approved. "Now that means we just need to figure out a way to get them there," adds a senior defense official."
    Reminds me of an update from Tom Paxton:
    "George W. told the nation,
    "This is not an escalation.
    This is just a surge toward victory.
    Though it isn't really war,
    We're sending twenty thousand more,
    To help save Iraq from Iraqese.""
    Plus ca change...

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 50. At 3:34pm on 20 Aug 2008, Mark wrote:

    Well Bolt has broken the 200m WR, so that will be the news for tonight ... tomorrow or Friday then ...

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  • 51. At 3:45pm on 20 Aug 2008, DougTexan wrote:

    Way to brighten the day,.. huh ed. Wow, I've got a brother there in Afganistan and know not where he is... been weeks.

    As to Kathleen for BhOs running mate, shed be a fit.

    She's anti-gun, rifles are fine but no pistols, concealed anyway.

    Pro-abortion, but get this, she (God bless her) believes in education and pregnancy care by the state. Actually abortions went down when she was Governer.

    Same sex marriages, wrong for Kansas! I'd bet she'd say right for America. 2bavp

    "Let the killers live, and we pay for them" She's anti capital punishment.

    Oh, and the Cato Institute gave her a "D" for being pro-spending and tax increase.

    Sounds 'Just' like Barach h Obama

    Still, I think Christine Gregoire of Washington would be a shocker and a better pick.

    all bout

    people, plural of you

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  • 52. At 3:50pm on 20 Aug 2008, Candace9839 wrote:

    John Major and the lottery are rather the unsung heroes this year with all of that funding for sport paying off. I rather liked this story about a fallen heartthrob for our man in the field
    Another one bites the dust

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  • 53. At 4:11pm on 20 Aug 2008, OhNeverMind wrote:

    Heh Guys - Seen the latest headline on Reuters?
    McCain lead Obama! Great news.

    Especially for Hilary - who will overturn Barry at the convention which looks like it's going to be a RIOT!

    Whew.

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  • 54. At 4:20pm on 20 Aug 2008, Peter wrote:

    Having seen her video rebutting McCain's "celebrity" attack add, I say Paris Hilton is the pretty much the sole voice of reason in this whole brain-curdling process.

    And she's hot.

    Obama/Hilton 08 - you read it here first

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  • 55. At 4:27pm on 20 Aug 2008, senseandnonsense wrote:

    Justin Webb should not cite a satirical article by Andy Borowitz as "news". Hate to say it, but a lot of people won't get it. Borowitz published a piece only a few days ago in which, supposedly, an American diver was disqualified from the Olympics because he had no compelling personal story to exploit in Olympic television coverage. He came from an intact family; his parents are normal; he's a straight A student; he never had his house destroyed by a tornado, inundated by flood, never been struck by lightning and, no, none of his siblings have end-stage bone cancer. So he had to be disqualified. I'm glad that wasn't "news". By the way, Joe Biden, who is as loquacious as they come, would be a fine choice for Vice President. He cares about the United States Constitution. He's knowledgeable about foreign affairs and, unlike John McCain, is a true straight talker.

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  • 56. At 4:34pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Smear Gap?

    "For about a month, McCain's campaign has been resorting to charges that are patently false. When Obama traveled abroad in July, to positive reviews, McCain decided he had to make attack ads that went far beyond the norm. In the past, plainly deceptive ads were the province of the Republican National Committee or the Democratic National Committee or independent committees free to fling mud that didn't bear the fingerprints of candidates. But not this time. These smears come directly from the candidate."
    Jonathan Alter
    Newsweek Web Exclusive
    Updated: 5:21 PM ET Aug 18, 2008
    Naughty naughty!

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 57. At 4:37pm on 20 Aug 2008, senseandnonsense wrote:

    I would love John McCain to choose Tom Ridge as his Vice President! Let the nonsense continue! Ridge is the person who proposed, as head of the Dept. of Homeland Security, that citizens of the United States should protect themselves from gas attacks by employing duct tape and plastic. He was soundly ridiculed for that. He's also the person who came up with the color-coding system for warning us about the danger of terrorist attacks. Initially considered as merely stupid, the color-coding was used as a tool of the Bush administration to strike fear into the populace at election time. One system does not fit all. The sense of fear that a New Yorker might feel upon receiving notice of an elevated risk of terrorist attack is not the same sense felt in more remote areas, for instance, as the Lincoln Park Elementary School playground, which no self-respecting terrorist would consider newsworthy enough to attack. Ridge is a likeable man with stupid ideas. He was a thorough dunce as the governor of Pennsylvania, too. I hope he's chosen by McCain! If that's the best the Republicans can do, they're done for.

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  • 58. At 4:38pm on 20 Aug 2008, jacksforge wrote:

    michell obama, he knows her well ,can trust her, knows she understand his motives and direction should he get hurt and not be able to carry out his duties etc.





    well it was worth a try.
    makes about as much sense as saying Hillery Robem Clinton

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  • 59. At 4:39pm on 20 Aug 2008, Anna-liza wrote:

    Obama is slipping consistently in the polls. Hillary Clinton as VP is probably the only way the Democrats will avoid a loss in the one election they were thought to be, and ought to be, a shoo-in.

    Had Obama hung onto his early starry lead, he could probably have picked almost anybody as his VP and still felt confident about winning the General Election. As things are unfolding he might feel differently. If he can subdue his ego sufficiently to put country before self, there's still a chance for the Democrats, as I see it.
    Unlikely though.

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  • 60. At 4:51pm on 20 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    #27. allmymarbles - actually you wrote that you had no empathy for women who voted for a woman simply because they were women or Blacks who voted for Blacks because of the colour of their skin: check your response at #15.

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  • 61. At 4:52pm on 20 Aug 2008, Candace9839 wrote:

    Re: #59. The Clinton(s) as VP would be a disaster. Obama's campaign is focused on the key battleground states and less focused on the national polls, which seems a sound strategy for winning in November.

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  • 62. At 4:55pm on 20 Aug 2008, DougTexan wrote:

    Thanks Ed, #49 Tom Paxtons song of LBJ

    Thank you, it was so long ago in my mind,.. funny how it all comes back, a smile, saddness and a hole where so many resided in my heart. I know how it is, how it was, and how these boys have it. And it stinks,..even in the middle of the night.

    Funny thing fear, really a missused word for most points, concern would be better. Concerned about BhO being president is different then fear of him. For I may fear death or going to war, terror is being wounded 'and' captured. John McCain has faced fear and terror, and he still smiles, I gotta like that.

    In politics it is policies and paper, each has effects on our men and women, in places where even the friendlies don't care really, they just wait for the end and wonder what the f your there for. I want a president that knows that in ways most alive never will, without being told. McCain knows.

    the things i've seen
    ain't peace

    is peace a place

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  • 63. At 5:10pm on 20 Aug 2008, MikeIL wrote:

    If McCain chooses Tom Ridge, he might win Pennsylvania, but he will lose the election.

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  • 64. At 5:11pm on 20 Aug 2008, KavJack1 wrote:

    I'm impressed if Biden is writing his own speech. He achieved notoriety for his plagiarism in Law School at the University of Delaware and also was found to have plagiarized a speech from British Labour Party (UK) leader Neil Kinnock. The plagiarism was considered all the more serious, because it included details of Kinnock's life which were not true in Biden's case. By the way, I plagiarized several lines from sourcewatch.com in producing this comment.
    Am I eligible to be a member of VP Biden's staff ?

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  • 65. At 5:14pm on 20 Aug 2008, MikeIL wrote:

    McCain, I think might choose someone not yet bandied about in the major media. His long-time friend, former Congressman, staunch conservative and community activist -- J.C. Watts.

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  • 66. At 5:16pm on 20 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    DV (#32), I agree with you on Kaine, but I can't understand why you are hung up on Gore. He's been there, done that, lost his best chance for the presidency, and has moved on. He doesn't want the job, and hardly anybody wants him for it.

    Also, he is scheduled to speak at the end of the convention.

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  • 67. At 5:28pm on 20 Aug 2008, DutchNemo wrote:

    Anna-liza,

    Polling is like gambling: sometimes you are lucky but most of the time you are not. I wouldn't pay to much attention to the opinion polls because it is impossible to poll a nation of 304 million.

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  • 68. At 5:31pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    From the "right wing" Cato Institute:
    John McCain: Recruiting for Al Qaeda?

    "At the “Civil Forum” at Saddleback Church in Orange County, California this weekend, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) repeated a favorite line of his about Osama bin Laden:
    " If I have to follow him to the gates of hell, I will get Osama bin Laden and bring him to justice. . . . No one should be allowed to take thousands of American, innocent American lives. Of course evil must be defeated . . . we are facing the transcendent challenge of the 21st century–radical Islamic extremists."
    What a gift to the recruiting efforts of Al Qaeda! - to have an American presidential candidate declare himself a follower of Osama bin Laden. According to McCain, Bin Laden is so powerful that he poses a “transcendent” challenge to John McCain’s United States."
    The most transcendent thought ever likely to pass the ever-more-addled grey matter in that grey head...?

    Salaam, etc.
    ed

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  • 69. At 5:33pm on 20 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    The "late news" is an obvious satire. Is Justin going along with the joke or is he just clueless? Determining that is part of the game here, I suppose.

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  • 70. At 5:43pm on 20 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    DutchNemo (#67), the population of the nation is not relevant. To be statistically significant, the sample size for a poll must be large compared to the number of possible responses, not the population, and it must be chosen objectively. The polls vary, because of varying methodology, differences in the when they were done, and error inherent in the process.

    There is only one poll that matters, ultimately.

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  • 71. At 5:59pm on 20 Aug 2008, jacksforge wrote:

    anna

    with all due respect if hillary is Near the ticket mc cain has won.
    Obama was doing real well right up to the time she started playing dirty.
    the american people were right along side him, until she started playing dirty.
    She never got it. never figured that she was not inevitable , that she had no right to the presidency.
    we have all been through a list of reasons she failed,things SHE said and did.

    most of her attacks on obama were not about him they were about his age colour and people he knew.

    We could be here for a century with the dodgy dealings of the clintons.

    they(clintons) are two of the most despicable and despised people in politics.

    But the fans are there, so he was magnanimous, and still she/he tries to mess it up.
    maybe those that get older turn republican, people have noticed that.
    well it seems like the two of them would be better joining the republicans.



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  • 72. At 6:00pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    How can you fix it if you Cain't see it's broke?

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 73. At 6:03pm on 20 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #40, Mark, I don't think that there really is a term for people
    like Carly Fiorina. She screwed up a major corporation and put
    a lot of good people out of work. Then, when she was fired, she
    claimed that it was because she was a woman.

    #40, #42, Allmy, My opinion probably doesn't matter, but I
    see very little prejudice by Mormons against the rest of
    society. Many "mainstream" Christians feel threatened by them,
    but I have never seen anything like that whatsoever.

    #49, Ed, I agree that this will not be solved by military force
    alone. We should be buying up the opium from Afghani growers,
    selling the crop to the Chechens to dump on the Russian market,
    and using the profit to fund the Georgians' resistance effort.

    Where is the CIA these days... back in the good old days, they
    used to be good at this sort of thing. It just goes to show
    how the Bush administration has completely destroyed our once
    competent agencies.

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  • 74. At 6:05pm on 20 Aug 2008, SaintDominick wrote:

    Ref 67

    I agree that polls not always reflect reality, and it is far too early to form opinions based on poll results, but there is no question that McCain has gained ground during the past month.
    In my opinion, his recent success is based almost exclusively on his position on energy. The irony, of course, is that most of his assertions on that subject are either exaggerations or distortions of reality. We are not sending $700 billion a year to people that don't like us, most of our oil imports come from Canada, Mexico and Nigeria, not the Middle East. Our neighbors may have second thoughts about our common sense, but I wouldn't say they don't like us. The recent drops in oil prices are not the result of Bush and McCain flip flopping on offshore oil drilling, they are the result of a dramatic reduction in demand caused by Americans driving less during the Holiday season and switching from gas guzzlers to energy efficient vehicles. One of the main reasons for changes in commodity prices is the law of supply and demand. The only reason we are talking about offshore drilling, besides politics, is because high oil prices make drilling in the USA profitable. If offshore drilling results in price drops, as McCain insinuates, domestic oil drilling will come to a screeching halt. It is also important to bear in mind that we are aggressively drilling in places like the Debakke formation where exploration and operational costs are much lower than those incurred in offshore ventures.

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  • 75. At 6:43pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Appeal to the middle class voter

    And response

    Reminds me of this

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 76. At 6:44pm on 20 Aug 2008, Simon21 wrote:

    Whoever Obama selcts as his running mate one can be sure that the or she will have been perfectly selected to compliment his ticket.

    Obama is a politician so any questions as to whether he is consisten or been a saint all his life are naturally puerile. Its astonishing they are still asked especially in the country that gave us JFK, Harding, Nixon and Clinton. (One of the more surreal episodes of Clinton's successful campaign was Mrs Clinton having to say how she baked biscuits.)

    Obama is however astoundingly acute. He has come from nowhere to defeat a very experienced and seasoned campaigner. The man is plainly no fool and has some very shrewd advisors

    Barring the LHO solution, always a factor in US politics albeit a comparatively rare one, he should be in home and hosed.

    It is not a question of whether he is "better" than McCain, he is simply the better campaigner and politician.

    Whether he will be any good of course is a different matter

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  • 77. At 6:49pm on 20 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    DV (#74), I think the recent swing in the polls is due to the flareup in Georgia, while Obama was on vacation. People are (rightly) nervous about this, and McCain was milking it while Obama was taking a break.

    I don't know whether the neo-cons arranged this for McCain's benefit, but in any case they are exploiting it.

    If Biden is, indeed, the VP nominee, no doubt he will be speaking at great length on the subject, then we'll see.

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  • 78. At 6:53pm on 20 Aug 2008, LongStrangeTrip wrote:

    Neither McCain nor Obama are cut-out for going negative. When they try to do it, you can see their hearts just aren't in it.

    I'm going to set aside all the position-stance and carry-a-state arguments for a moment and suggest that both candidates are going to gravitate toward someone who can fit the traditional "attack dog" role that VPs usually play. They're going to want a VP who is willing and able to punch below the belt for them.

    In Obama's case, Joe Biden fits that role perfectly. He can take a bite out of someone in a debate and his tone and manner of speaking can sound angry or intimidating when he needs it to be.

    For McCain, I think Romney is the more likely choice than Ridge. Ridge can be pretty scrappy, sure, but I think Romney is more intimidating and can talk a mean streak. And with the McCain camp dropping all these rumors that they're considering a pro-choice VP, Romney is going to look pretty good to conservatives, despite their previous doubts from his days as the Massachusetts governor.

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  • 79. At 7:07pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Simon,

    "(One of the more surreal episodes of Clinton's successful campaign was Mrs Clinton having to say how she baked biscuits.)"
    I was always under the impression that it was an explanation of why he didn't need to inhale...

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 80. At 7:20pm on 20 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Incoherent McCain

    "McCain's "gates of hell" talk is leadership malpractice, and he should stop using it immediately. Calling the threat of terrorism "transcendent" is equal parts incoherent and false. Terrorism stands no chance of defeating the United States or the West unless we ourselves collapse the society. Speaking this way about terrorism thrills our terrorist enemies and draws recruits and support to them. Silence would be much better, presidential campaign or no."
    Incoherent and false? Yup! As well as downright stupid...but what d'ya expect from someone so clearly showing the signs of his years?

    In contrast, we have Ms Marbles and Aquarizonagal, showing every sign of not losing it. Ain't life unfair?

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 81. At 7:23pm on 20 Aug 2008, Xie_Ming wrote:

    As a practical matter, Obama is to announce his choice shortly.

    What posssible utility can "predictions" have?

    Is this simply a way to have the media involve people in a meaningless exercise?

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  • 82. At 7:26pm on 20 Aug 2008, Suzanne B wrote:

    Won't be Biden. :-) Not a chance.

    Gore is a possible given the faint whiffs of rumours.

    As for McCain's veep - who cares. He ain't gonna need one.

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  • 83. At 7:28pm on 20 Aug 2008, aquarizonagal wrote:

    I advise examining chicken entrails as a means of prediction. This might actually be more accurate!

    As far as polls are concerned, I have been told that many polls are conducted via 'land lines.' In that case, many people who only have cell phones may not have been given input. Just a thought.

    Note to Dougtexan:

    If you wish, check my reply #49 to your #20 of the previous blog. Also, I will pray for the safety of your brother. I know what it is to have family members in a war zone.

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  • 84. At 7:31pm on 20 Aug 2008, proles wrote:

    Gee, a ‘balanced’ ticket, not one but two! A Protestant corporate imperialist and a Catholic corporate imperialist for each wing of the Duopoly Party, Republicans and Democrats alike, now what could be more ‘inclusive’ than that?. Yawn...boring Biden and repressed Ridge...nothing could be a more telling confirmation that this election, just as every one before it, is about business as usual. Two Washington insiders. Ridge presided over the transition to the USA PATRIOT ACT and other draconic domestic social controls in America and is the personification of the national security state. Biden has always supported the steady ratcheting down of civil liberties among the proles too but has other vested interests to cater to, as well . Delaware has been a corporate tax haven for decades and more Fortune 500 companies have headquarters mailing addresses in Biden's home state than any other province in the country. Perennial presidential also-ran Biden is the face of corporate America in the Senate and has been an obedient waterboy for big business throughout his lackluster career in public life. But his allegiances don't stop there, Biden’s also been one of the Congress’s leading point men for AIPAC for just as long. Obama/Biden, the Wall Street/AIPAC dream team. So the Party really did “go back to grey white men who represent” the same “entitled, wealthy, self-regarding” class as the Republicans and “turned on the” proles and “on the whole idea” of ‘Hope’ and Change’ . No matter, former little Goldwater girl Hillary represented the same elite interests herself and made a complete hash out of universal health care coverage plans during her co-occupancy of the White House in the 90’s. The Republi-Crats, black or white, male or female, never “really do represent everyone” – and don’t even “try to”.

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  • 85. At 8:00pm on 20 Aug 2008, lawchicago wrote:

    Maybe a bit off the subject, but I was looking at the state by state breakdown of polls on real clear politics. What stuck me is the fact that the states where the average Joe has gotten 8 years of declining no growth local economies and poor representation by Washington i.e . Ohio ,Oklahoma , Michigan seem to be favoring or are clearly in the McCain camp?

    Maybe there is a national disconnect and now many Americans have become accustomed to the Status Quo of government .

    I wonder if there is indeed something in the water .

    The neo- con approach to International relations will have us in four wars in the coming years , Afganistan, Iraq, Georgia and Iran .
    Haven't we figured out that we do not have the resources, capital or wherewithal to embark on such a stupid approach .

    It's getting scary over here !

    I am wondering if in a few years we will just implode as a nation like the former Soviet Union , broke and divided





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  • 86. At 8:20pm on 20 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #85, the neocons are on their way out, otherwise
    we would have attacked Iran by now.

    As far as the states you mentioned, as others
    have pointed out, there is only one poll that
    counts, and in the meantime, those that are
    available show a very close race, as reported
    on this web site

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  • 87. At 8:25pm on 20 Aug 2008, DougTexan wrote:

    AAG #83 Heartfelt thanks!

    Great points of how McCain got to this point. Like the fusion with the Bush clan, though I would add the Clinton family there as well.

    On the opposing hand, BhO, who did he team up with for this rise to political possibility at the leading office of our nation. Hmmm.. Won't rename the names, everyone 'knows' he disavowed them, got nothing from them,..except a house.... and some money,... and connections.

    Ahhh, what does it matter what a person 'was', change you believe in AAG, and I'm sure you've seen people truely change.

    Me, on the otherhand, I've seen alcoholics become non-drinkers and drug addicts go straight..... but a thief is a thief regardless if he never steals again (gets caught) and a liar never has close friends. So tell me, who then are BhOs 'close' friends he didn't through under the bus with Grandma?

    Notice none of the media has interviewed her? Show his 'whyte' side?

    My ill gotten to point is that 'yes, people change', clothes and hair for a job, references to get qualified, cars for an impression, but all changes are superficial, weeks later after the job is gotten he's wearing his/her style to work, the hair grows back or gets colored, the new car gets dirtier on the inside than out.

    BhO will revert to himself, the real he, after being elected. Wright, Ayers and all the others will understand, friends do. Besides that, look at the good side, your friends with the President!!

    Father Flagger in the Lincoln Room

    And I still think we need a woman VP in the white house, for both canidates. Either race, but check out how wiley Condie Rice has been with Russia, (girl got a set).

    The possibility of not completing a presidential term is the primary reason for th Vice Pres. position, and the VP picks being thrown around are just more of the same for eight more years.

    time will tell

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  • 88. At 8:34pm on 20 Aug 2008, aquarizonagal wrote:

    #85Lawchicago

    Your thoughts are scary but mine have sometimes tended that way also.

    Consider this, we have been told that in Arizona McCain has a 10 point lead over Obama but this is mostly been counting registered Republicans over Democrats. I very much doubt if the count has considered the rising number of independent/undecided voters (slowly rising above 30% of the state's voters) or the 'Staunch Republicans' who (I quote this from a friend) "could not stomach voting for that man!"

    I think it would be a real hoot if McCain could not carry the maximum from his 'own state.'

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  • 89. At 9:01pm on 20 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    DougTexan (#87), the VP neither lives nor works in the White House.

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  • 90. At 9:17pm on 20 Aug 2008, aquarizonagal wrote:

    Dougtexan

    McCain has suggested that he might meddle with CAP ( The Colorado River Project) Seven Western states have fought, clawed, scrabbled and beaten on each other for a project that is mostly working.

    Politics 101: Don't mess with CAP! He could lose a lot more voters than is predicted if people think he might try to change CAP.

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  • 91. At 9:33pm on 20 Aug 2008, Xie_Ming wrote:

    If the evangelicals, like one frequent poster here, do again vote for the Bush side,

    then I will have to conclude that America is getting what it deserves.

    However, I will have great sympathy for the thinking victims who will have been shown to be in the minority.

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  • 92. At 9:33pm on 20 Aug 2008, MagicKirin wrote:

    ref #42

    Unture but there is a prejudice against Mormans even though Harry Reid is one.

    Huckabee for some reason has a vendetta against Romney and is poisioning the process.

    If not for the Obama/Clinton problem this would be getting more press.

    As far as pick, I agree on the Biden.

    I don't on Ridge, I think it will be Polante, Romney and don't count out the principaled and only ethical Senator from CT Lieberman.

    A weasal is someone who takes a sweetheart loan from Countrywide

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  • 93. At 9:55pm on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    60, David.

    I did what you asked. What is the problem?

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  • 94. At 10:18pm on 20 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    I think I am going to sit out the VP discussion. Unless he picks someone vry controversial the VP has proved in the past not to be that important.

    I take that back. I didn't vote for Gore because the weasel Lieberman was running with him.

    Nonetheless I am sitting this one out. Bye, folks.

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  • 95. At 11:58pm on 20 Aug 2008, SaintDominick wrote:

    Ref 94

    I agree that VPs seldom make a big difference in Presidential elections, but considering the circumstances that is not the case this time.

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  • 96. At 00:26am on 21 Aug 2008, Cyril_Croydon wrote:

    I agree Dominick. For Obama, the veep is crucial as recent polls are showing. At times of trouble, voters look for experience. Even McCain now beats him on the economy in the Zobgy poll.

    The issue of drilling and Russia has given McCain a huge boost, however the economy will still be the deciding factor and Obama must prove that he can handle it. He must talk about Health and poverty issues a lot more as well and steer the debate away from national security.

    His choice of VP must be experienced and reassuring to working class voters.

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  • 97. At 00:46am on 21 Aug 2008, tucsonmike wrote:

    We'll see what happens. All of the VP possibilities have drawbacks. The VP nominees will be the ones who bring the most to the ticket (or compliment the ticket) with the fewest negatives.

    That sounds obvious, but it is is up to the respective camps to do the planning there and I do not want to speculate on who it will be.

    VP nominees are now important in a way they were not important in the past.

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  • 98. At 02:25am on 21 Aug 2008, coopster121 wrote:

    how about bill richardson?? personally i think he will get secretary of state if obama wins

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  • 99. At 04:25am on 21 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    98, coopster.

    That's how I see Richardson too. But does Obama?

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  • 100. At 05:14am on 21 Aug 2008, AJAGUIRRE wrote:

    All these people that criticize Obama for being too popular are not only cynical but also naive. Republicans know that they have nothing to stand on. Their policies have brought economic disaster, not to mention a mismanaged war and a disastrous foreign policy. This country is in danger, we are in debt to the chinese and we are spending less and less on infrastructure. McCain is not only keeping the same regressive tax policy, he has promised to stay in Iraq indefinetly. While our deficit grows, McCain has committed himself to cut spending so we can forget about building infrastructure for the future.

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  • 101. At 05:49am on 21 Aug 2008, smartkatieblogger wrote:

    For Obama, I am predicting Joe Biden or
    Kathleen Sibellius; for John McCain , Mitt
    Romney or Tom Ridge.

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  • 102. At 12:38pm on 21 Aug 2008, DutchNemo wrote:

    DominickVila,

    I agree Obama's support in the polls has dropped but I still believe he maintains a small lead because a weak economy traditionally favours the Democrats. I believe McCain's support has increased because of Obama's ill-timed holiday (Russian invasion of Georgia) to Hawai which left McCain in the spotlights. Obama's Europe trip may have left many Americans untouched but has probably increased Evangelical support for McCain because they traditionally distrust Europeans.

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  • 103. At 3:32pm on 21 Aug 2008, MagicKirin wrote:

    ref #102

    Just as the polls that had Obama ahead by 12 these don't mean anything.

    Lets see where things are after Oct 1.

    That is when the left and right wing hate groups will put out their attack ads.

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  • 104. At 5:20pm on 21 Aug 2008, ericforeman wrote:

    1. Wow, DougTexan. I mean... here I thought the whole middle name issue was a moot point. But thanks for correcting that. Every time you write BhO... it's just proving to everyone else that you're incredibly ignorant. Middle names tell you next to nothing about a person. John McCain's middle name is Sidney. Does this mean he's going to be sympathetic to Austrailia? Or that he's qualified to be an incredible actor like Sidney Poitier.
    Middle names are inconsequential. I hoped that in 2008, people would be more concerned about a candidate's stance on issues rather than his middle name.

    2. Biden is a smart choice. He's a proven Democrat, isn't a 'flip-flopper' and isn't afraid of verbally sparring with an opponent.
    Although, he's a double edged sword. He is a Washington man, and Obama is running to change Washington. But Biden does sure up Obama's inexperience with foreign leaders.
    However, on that note, I feel like people aren't paying attention to Obama's popularity in the rest of the world. Well, they are, but they're letting it take a negative connatation. But it's not just popularity. It's Respect. Many of Europe's leaders respect him, and I feel like I could vote for someone who commands respect from leaders, rather than someone who has a lot of experience, but is not respected by the rest of the world. What good is experience when the rest of the world doesn't respect your opinion?

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  • 105. At 04:09am on 22 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    104, Eric.

    It was because of his enormous respect in the world outside the United States that I voted for Richard Nixon. And never regretted it.

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  • 106. At 7:24pm on 22 Aug 2008, Xie_Ming wrote:

    Doug:

    There is not fault at all in being ignorant.

    There is great merit in trying to correct it.

    Go!

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  • 107. At 03:45am on 23 Aug 2008, EgbertRumpledink wrote:

    Al Gore would make a great V.P. again. I'm sure Obama would be a shoe in, if Gore were to be his running mate, however I think that it just wont happen.
    Obama perhaps needs an older running mate or rather someone with a bit more experience just to clinch his presidency. It's just a question of who has the experience and yet who's morals and scruples have not been corrupted by being part of the political process for years.
    McCain on the other hand, needs someone younger yet worldly, someone who will tell him that he's out of touch with most of the rest of the world. McCain needs to see the world from a different perspective.
    Who ever the two nominees pick as their running mates, I hope their choices question and challenge the two into doing the right thing and taking the high road.

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