Banks for sale
So if we've been right with the speculation, who is going to buy the bits of Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland that they are being forced to sell or float off?
RBS insurance division looks quite a strong prospect for a float.
It was put up for sale earlier this year, but the only offer at that time would have required RBS to finance it.
That didn't seem to make much sense for a company on a crash diet, so chief executive Stephen Hester walked away.
With the financial market a bit less volatile than earlier this year, the big insurers could be more interested than when it was last offered, particularly if they know it has to be sold.
Even if there's to be no rushed fire sale, that probably gives buyers a negotiating advantage.
Names like Allianz, Generali and Zurich are being mentioned.
Peter Woods, who got very rich by setting up Direct Line nearly 25 years ago, is reported saying he prefers to focus on his current interests - esure and Sheilas' Wheels - doubting that the Direct Line model is well placed to match the growth of price comparison insurance websites.
I've heard the same concern from other insurance analysts.
However, one question nags about floating off a successful insurance division: does that have anything to do with increasing competition in retail banking, or is it merely punishment for being big?
The Royal Bank's RBS-branded branches in England and Wales - numbering 312, to be re-named Williams and Glyn and with a bias to north-west England - have a strong business banking profile and are perhaps the most attractive package of all.
A suggestion from one who ought to know the bank market well, is that they could be a good fit with the Clydesdale and Yorkshire banks, which are owned and run from Glasgow and Leeds as a joint unit for National Australia Bank (NAB).
Clydesdale's response? It said with its annual figures last week that it has been rather good at organic growth in the recent past, and that's how it would prefer to continue.
While NAB would look at opportunities to increase deposit strength and capability it doesn't have, it says that would have to measure up against the options for those organic growth options.
Then there's Intelligent Finance, an online division of Bank of Scotland that employs more than 350 people, most in Livingston, some in Rosyth.
It seems likely Lloyds will attach it to Cheltenham and Gloucester, for the simple reason that it lacks its own banking licence, and getting a new one is not an easy process.
Nor is it cheap. Buying a bank requires not only the capital to buy the business, but a whole lot more capital to sink into its balance sheet.
And as for Lloyds TSB Scotland, perhaps renamed the Trustee Savings Bank on the eve of that venerable Scottish mutual's 200th birthday?
Lloyds clearly won't want its name used by a rival.
Barclays and HSBC might like a vehicle for expanding into Scotland, but it now seems the political pressure is on to ensure the current British big four don't cannibalise each other to retain their dominance.
It could be snapped up by a big foreign bank wanting a foothold in the Scottish market.
Bank of China is one of those that has ambitions, and it's already getting active in the UK mortgage market.
It may also be interested in the RBS network south of the border.
But what about a Scottish consortium? The place to look is to that group of people who fought to stop Bank of Scotland being taken over by Lloyds TSB last year, arguing a great Scottish institution should remain Scottish.
They lost that battle, and Bank of Scotland has turned out to be a lot less great than it looked even then, as the losses on its corporate division have unravelled.
Sir Peter Burt, former chairman of Bank of Scotland, was one of those opposing the takeover.
He says he's not now part of a Scottish consortium to get into the market for these assets.
He has his doubts about the ease of disentangling the Scottish Lloyds TSB network from its larger southern sibling.
But he likes the idea and backs the push for more competition.
Ben Thomson, chairman of Noble Group, is seen as the key mover and shaker in this group of financiers.
He denies he's leading a consortium to buy Lloyds TSB Scotland. But he also supports the idea - very strongly.
"There's an opportunity to get the right structures in place," he told me.
"We can be ahead of the curve, in terms of restructuring the financial services industry to be in a good position to compete in the future."
"It's a huge opportunity. And it's far too important an industry not to put a huge amount of effort into getting it right".
p.s. With details now published, the leaks and speculation got it broadly right, but didn' t stretch as far as the Lloyds sell-off plans.
Between 250 and 300 Lloyds TSB branches in England and Wales are on the market, bracketed with 185 Lloyds TSB branches in Scotland and the Cheltenham and Gloucester.
That creates a new unit with stand-alone potential, representing 5% of Lloyds Banking Group's current accoiunt customers and 19% of its mortgage business.
That scale and geographic reach makes a Scottish consortium bid look much less likely.