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Resisting temptation.

Betsan Powys | 13:34 UK time, Tuesday, 6 April 2010

It's "and they're off" that did it.

Karl the bookie can't resist a headline like that. Neither can he resist stirring things up a bit.

The official bookies give 21 of Wales' 40 seats to Labour, 9 to the Conservatives - just short of that 'double figures' target. 5 go to the Liberal Democrats, 4 to Plaid Cymru and 1 - Blaenau Gwent - to stay independent.

The Electoral Reform Society reckon the election's over in 24 out of the 40 seats - shoo-ins where your vote won't count. The message? Pack away the rosettes and change the electoral system.

Karl, who is still a bookie at heart if not for real, doesn't go for that sort of attitude. He's studied the going and reckons Wales will be all hung up with Labour and the Conservatives on 15 seats each, Plaid Cymru on 5 with the Lib Dems on 4 and Blaenau Gwent evading Labour again.

Labour shoo-ins are considerably fewer on his list. Cardiff West goes blue, as does Carmarthen West. Bridgend could provide a shock he reckons, as could Gower and Delyn and Newport West where he 'can't make Labour' his favourite. Vale of Clwyd? Blue too along with Brecon and Radnorshire.

He also reckons turnout will be high: 67% - 68% is his favourite. It was 62.6% in 2005, just above UK average.

Care for a bet? If he's offering odds on those sort of results, I wouldn't mind. 15 seats each to Labour and the Conservatives? But he's not and this is, if I need to spell it out, just a bit of fun as Uncle Bryn would put it.

UPDATE

Just spotted Adam Price on College Green claiming that a hung parliament "is a racing certainty" and that he can't wait for the others to come "tap, tap, tapping" at Plaid's door.

Tapping? How very restrained.

Comments

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  • 1. At 3:23pm on 06 Apr 2010, comeoffit wrote:

    The constituency you are thinking of is 'Carmarthen West AND South Pembrokeshire' Betsan. Still an easy mistake to make as I can scarcely think of two more different demographics sandwiched under the heading of one constituency.

    Re:the update... it comes as no surprise that Adam Price would like nothing more than to bend 'the others' over barrels resultantly causing seperatist havoc and causing even more problems for this country (and yes I do mean the U.K.) in the years to come.

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  • 2. At 4:26pm on 06 Apr 2010, SEDWOT wrote:

    How do Plaid intend to support the largest party at Westminster? They are pledged not to vote on devolved issues and therefore have nothing but abstention to offer on, say, Education or the Health service. They would abstain anyway.
    If it came to a vote of no confidence how could Plaid be said to be looking after the interests of Wales if their MPs saved a Tory government. It is not credible that after the election Wales will have an overall majority of Conservative MPs therefore the assumption should be that Wales would want a Tory government to fall at any vote of no confidence.

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  • 3. At 6:15pm on 06 Apr 2010, DisgustedinDERRY wrote:

    British government cowardice!!!

    Set the truth free - set it free today!!!

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  • 4. At 6:44pm on 06 Apr 2010, Alison wrote:

    Hi Betsan,
    This isnt a political question but i hope you don't mind answering it. My husband and i were watching you on the news tonight and we love your pink coat you wore on the earlier report - for me i hasten to add!
    Please tell me where you got it from. Oh by the way i'm from Bridgend and am one voter who will not be voting blue!!!
    Thankyou (in anticipation of your answer!)
    Regards,
    Alison Gregory

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  • 5. At 7:39pm on 06 Apr 2010, Bryn_Teilo wrote:

    The results postulated reflect the way that the two unionist parties have the system stitched up between them. They have been hogging the tv screens ALL day today.

    How can the electorate make an informed choice in such circumstances?

    Its unhealthy for democracy to allow such unbalanced coverage, and to ignore the realities in Wales and Scotland. In the past, and in other societies, such suppression has led to extremism, which no-one would condone.

    #2 wrote:

    '.. causing seperatist (sic) havoc and causing even more problems for this country (and yes I do mean the U.K.) in the years to come'.

    Neither Plaid nor the SNP can cause 'separatist havoc' without the electoral support of the majority in their respective countries. That's called 'democracy', which you no doubt support wholeheartedly when the outcome(s) are in agreement with your own (bigoted?) point of view.

    Despite often being used by Cameron and Brown to describe the UK, the word 'country' is used loosely. The UK is a nation state, it is strictly speaking not a country. (cf for example, the former Soviet Union was comprised of a number of countries). Some nation states are countries, the UK is not one of them. It is an amalgamation of countries or nations. England, Scotland and Wales are countries, so the UK cannot rightly be described as such. How can a 'country' be two countries?

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  • 6. At 12:06pm on 07 Apr 2010, Denno wrote:

    Bryn - That might be your first post in a while where you haven't stated the lame Tory cliché, 'a bunch of millionaire privileged Tory toffs, born with silver spoons in their mouths.' Well done.

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