Super Bowl still anyone's as race reaches last eight
This Saturday and Sunday, we're down to the final eight as the top four teams join the winners from last weekend's wild wildcard round in the NFL play-offs.
The picture should be a little clearer with regard to who will be playing in Super Bowl 44 (sorry, traditionalists but I hate the Roman numerals) in South Florida on 7 February but I think this season's race remains wide open.
The number one seeds from each conference - the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC and the New Orleans Saints in the NFC - enter the fray this weekend but there is no guarantee they are going to wipe the floor with their respective opponents.
Recent history suggests those top seeds need to be wary. Three of the last four top seeds in the AFC (Indianapolis 2005, San Diego 2006 and Tennessee 2008) and the last two in the NFC (Dallas 2007 and New York Giants 2008) have fallen at the first hurdle, despite the luxury of having an extra week off late in the season.
Confidence and self-belief are key components of a successful NFL team and all eight clubs will feel they have a shot at going all the way.
Here is my take on the weekend's action, beginning with the game Greg Brady and I will commentate on for BBC 5 live sports extra from 2100 GMT on Sunday - the New York Jets' visit to the San Diego Chargers.
With the big thaw finally underway, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a trip without flight cancellations, airport delays and lost luggage. And, of course, I'm hoping for another thriller like the shootout between the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals.
New York Jets (9-7) at San Diego Chargers (13-3)
The Jets may have sneaked into the playoffs by playing already-qualified teams resting key starters in Indianapolis and Cincinnati in the final two weeks of the year, but now coach Rex Ryan's men are there, they are going to be tough to get rid of.
I firmly believe the NFL is a passing league now and the numbers back that up. There were a record 10 quarterbacks passing for more than 4,000 yards in the league this season and seven of those guys, including San Diego's Philip Rivers, made the playoffs.
But the Jets are a throwback to a bygone age. They throw just enough to keep the defence honest, run it down the opponent's throat behind a powerful offensive line and adopt a smothering, dominant style on the other side of the ball.
Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has endured some tough times this season but he played arguably his best game of the year in the first round of the playoffs, completing 12 of 15 passes. But this offence will go as far as the running back pairing of Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene will carry them.
Defensively, the Jets boast the league's leading defence and have put together some scarily good numbers. They have allowed just 14.8 points per game this season and have been even more dominant in the last six weeks, conceding an average of just 7.8 points per outing.
Cornerback Darrelle Revis has consistently shut down the best receivers in the game this season and will lock down Chargers' deep threat Vincent Jackson. The good news for the Chargers is that they have other weapons who can prove to be the difference in this game, namely Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates and big-bodied wide receiver Malcolm Floyd.
The Chargers offer a much tougher challenge to the Jets having won their last 11 games in a row and Rivers is in the form of his life. I think Rivers and San Diego will find just enough offense to advance to the AFC Championship Game but this is going to be a close, hard-fought contest.
Prediction: NY Jets 17 San Diego Chargers 21
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
The Colts had a genuine shot at winning every game in the regular season but chose to rest key starters down the stretch. It was not a decision that sat well with quarterback Peyton Manning and he will be keen to make amends by going on to win the Super Bowl.
The danger for Indianapolis is that they have lost momentum and with the home side not having played a meaningful game since mid-December, the first 15 minutes will be key. If the Colts look rusty in the early stages and the Ravens can get a jump on them, Baltimore can pull off the upset.
As we saw in New England last week, if the Ravens can get a decent lead, they are well built to protect it. Baltimore rushed for 234 yards and four touchdowns with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee doing the damage while quarterback Joe Flacco completed just four passes. And the defence led by linebacker Ray Lewis can also be dominant when the Ravens get their noses in front.
But Manning - winner of a fourth NFL Most Valuable Player Award this season - is a cut above the rest and has the skills to pick Baltimore's cornerbacks apart, teaming with 100-catch men Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.
Baltimore always seem to give the Colts a good game, but Indianapolis always find a way to edge it. And given that this team was perfect before taking the foot off the gas, I think we can expect the same this Saturday and Indianapolis will advance to the semi-finals.
Prediction: Baltimore 20 Indianapolis 31
Arizona Cardinals (10-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Hold onto your hats - this could be another shootout. The Cardinals head to New Orleans full of confidence after their 51-45 victory over Green Bay and the key for Arizona will, once again, be the form of Kurt Warner and receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston and Early Doucet (Anquan Boldin is facing another uphill struggle to be fit).
The Saints need to do a better job of slowing Warner down than the Packers did. But how should that be done? Blitz Warner and he will pick apart a depleted secondary, drop extra men into coverage and that gives him more time to throw accurately downfield. New Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has made a massive impact this season but he will really have to earn his head coach-type salary on Saturday.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is just as unstoppable. He is hard to bring down, he sees the field better than most passers in the league and he is supremely accurate with an exciting group of receivers.
This game should feature plenty of points but it could come down to just one or two big defensive plays - a sack here or an interception there. Both clubs have the men capable of making plays on that side of the ball - Arizona will look to linebacker Karlos Dansby or cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, while the Saints have benefited hugely from the ball-hawking skills of safety Darren Sharper.
One thing to look out for is the psyche of the Saints. They lost their last three games and could conceivably have lost five in a row had they not squeaked out close come-from-behind wins over Washington and Atlanta.
If the Cardinals get a jump on the Saints, Sean Payton's men may fold. But I think homefield advantage, in this particular case, could be crucial and New Orleans will advance to the final four.
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 28 New Orleans Saints 35
Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
This is a really tough one to call. The Cowboys defence has risen up in the past month, allowing just 31 points in the last four games - all wins over New Orleans, Washington and Philadelphia (twice). But the Vikings - led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre - have a potent attack that has averaged 29 points per game in 2009. That kind of production cannot be taken lightly.
The key for Dallas will be to get to Favre and knock the 40-year-old about a bit. Pass-rushing outside linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are in top form and could create problems for a Vikings offensive line that has been inconsistent throughout the season.
Running back Adrian Peterson used to be the key man for the Vikings but he has not passed the 100-yard mark in the last seven games. So Minnesota will hope Favre and the receiving group of Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian and Visante Shiancoe can find openings against an in-form Dallas secondary.
With Tony Romo playing confident and care-free football for the Cowboys, I am taking Dallas to sneak this one, purely based on the fact they have simply been playing better football than the Vikings in the last month.
But I feel it will be close and this, of all the games, is the one I think could genuinely go either way. It certainly has the makings of being a classic.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 27 Minnesota Vikings 24
So there you have it. If my predictions are correct, San Diego will visit Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game on 24 January, while New Orleans will welcome the Cowboys to the Superdome in the NFC.
But as the NFL has proven all season long, anything can happen when the games kick off and it wouldn't surprise me if we have seen another upset or two by the end of the weekend.
With all bets safely hedged, I'm off to California!
You can catch live commentary of the New York Jets against the San Diego Chargers this Sunday at 2100 GMT on BBC 5 live sports extra. (Available on the web to UK users only). Watch extended highlights of this weekend's NFL play-offs on BBC 2 on Monday 18 January at 2320 GMT; short clips on Monday on the BBC Sport website (UK only).