McLaren fear title chances are slipping away
The rainstorms sweeping across Formula 1's most majestic circuit, the breathtaking Spa, make the sunshine at the last race in Hungary seem a distant memory.
In one sense, it is, because there has been a month's gap between races.
But however much Red Bull's rivals, most notably McLaren, tried to switch off during the sport's summer break, the performance advantage rolled out in Budapest by Adrian Newey's RB6 flying machine haunted their holiday down-time.
Without doubt, the longest faces can currently be found in the McLaren garage. The team's renowned resilience and resourcefulness look like being tested to the full.
Publicly, team officials dismiss the idea that the next two races in Belgium on Sunday and Italy in two weeks' time will make or break their title challenge this season.
Privately, however, there is reluctant acknowledgement that they have to score heavily at these final two European low downforce tracks where straight-line speed - where McLaren are stronger than their title rivals - can be decisive.
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As one team member put it succinctly: "It'll be all over for us if we don't. Red Bull will walk it in Singapore (first of the final five long-haul races), and be strong elsewhere."
While Sebastian Vettel happily described himself as "carefully optimistic" about Red Bull's prospects for the weekend, the normally upbeat Lewis Hamilton has been unnaturally pessimistic, seemingly resigned to chasing Red Bull's shadows for the remainder of the year.
"I don't think anything's going to change here. The car's still not quick enough compared to the others.
"We have to understand where the extra time and downforce is - and only once we've done that can we really move forward," he said on Thursday.
Now, I understand the McLaren engineers believe that a clever trade-off between more downforce and less drag thanks to their efficient F-duct aerodynamic device should make a difference here.
Yes, the Red Bulls will be quick through the long corners in Spa's middle sector, but McLaren should have the stronger performance along the straights in the first and final sectors to offset Red Bull's greater grip.
Not enough, probably, to find the margin of 1.7 seconds that Red Bull enjoyed over McLaren in Hungary but sufficient to be significant podium contenders.
Nonetheless, such a downbeat assessment of his car's current competitiveness is a vivid contrast to the optimism within McLaren at Silverstone last month.
That's when the team introduced their version of the 'blown diffuser' concept which has been an integral part of the Red Bull design from the first race in Bahrain.
Unfortunately the gains have not come close to fulfilling McLaren predictions. If anything, Button and Hamilton have found the car's balance worse.
Red Bull have continued to improve their performance since the British Grand Prix - as have Ferrari, whose own version of the blown diffuser has worked without problems since it was introduced in Valencia, the race before Silverstone.
McLaren, by contrast, have lost the edge they had enjoyed since their one-two at the Turkish Grand Prix and have now lost the lead in both the drivers' and the constructors' championships.
Now, we've seen this before when Mark Webber and Red Bull hit the front after Monaco. It appeared that the team were all set to capitalise on their advantage and take charge of the title race.
On that occasion McLaren struck back.
But this time they feel more vulnerable to attack, and their frustration is fuelled by the continuing controversy over flexible bodywork.
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They believe that Red Bull and Ferrari have made their performance leaps because their front wings and the front part of the car's floor - frequently referred to as the 'bib' - are flexing excessively outside the regulation limits.
In McLaren's view, their extra downforce gains are, therefore, illegal.
If you watched the last two races, you would have seen slow-motion footage of the front wings of the Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren while the cars were on the track.
While McLaren's is very stiff and well clear of the road, the wings on the Red Bull and Ferrari appear to be almost touching it.
The team believe that the new FIA load tests, particularly on the rigidity of the floor at the Italian Grand Prix, will have an impact on their rivals' level of performance.
In the words of Jenson Button on Thursday: "I'd be amazed if there wasn't a difference (at Monza)."
One engineer I spoke to claims that Red Bull and Ferrari have a series of sections in their floor which allows the 'bib' to move, creating greater downforce behind the front wing.
The regulations state that the floor must be one solid piece.
Another engineer told me that if the other two teams have been doing this and are forced to make changes, then McLaren could find an extra 0.7secs, bringing them back into much stronger contention.
Not just at Monza, but for the championship run-in.
But he also stressed that the team has to be prepared for Red Bull and Ferrari to pass the new tests, in which case McLaren will be left to rely on their own technical talents to make up lost ground.
It should be emphasised that each time this season Red Bull have come under scrutiny for alleged technical irregularities, the FIA has consistently found no fault.
"We are confident that we will comply with whatever tests there are," said team principal Christian Horner.
"The new test will affect us only as much as any other team. If people are complaining, it shows that they don't know what we're up to.
Remember also that where once McLaren's championship ambitions looked to be a straight fight against Red Bull, now Ferrari's Fernando Alonso is back in the thick of it, only 20 points off leader Webber.
The World Motorsport Council hearing on 8 September into the Hockenheim team orders controversy hangs darkly over their challenge but their rate of development continues apace.
Ferrari, I understand, have reworked the rear of their car - with a new blown diffuser in which the exhaust gases blow through as well as over the new floor for the first time, as well as modified rear suspension and a new gearbox casing.
Their concern is over engines. Both Alonso and Felipe Massa have already used six of their season's allocation of eight.
If they follow the lead of some teams planning to use new units at both the power tracks of Spa and Monza, that could become a big issue for Alonso over the final five races.
For this weekend, though, Hamilton and Button, F1's two most recent champions - both of them wet-weather specialists - have to hope that McLaren can maximise what they have, otherwise they will feel like they're pushing water up Eau Rouge until November.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~12~RS~)
Jonathan Legard commentated on Formula 1 for the BBC in 2009 and 2010. He wrote regular blogs during that period, giving a behind-the-scenes insight into the grand prix weekends. Jonathan, previously 5 live's football correspondent and before that the radio station's F1 correspondent, is no longer part of the BBC's F1 team.
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"Not enough, probably, to find the margin of 1.7 seconds that Red Bull enjoyed over McLaren in Hungary but sufficient to be significant podium contenders."
Well, no, but chances of them being that far behind when Spa is far less optimal for RBR than the Hungaroring have got to be extremely small.
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"Not enough, probably, to find the margin of 1.7 seconds that Red Bull enjoyed over McLaren in Hungary but sufficient to be significant podium contenders."
Ah yes but will it be good enough?
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Agreed with comment number 1. Anyone who thinks the Red Bull will have the same performance advantage as in Hungary are mad quite frankly.
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Don't read to much into fernando alonso's last time, he was just lucky to get to the front of a very long queue, and other drivers therefore had traffic problems. If there hadn't been the spectators incident, than we might have seen sutil/hamilton at the top of the sheet
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I agree Jonathan
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My top 8 are:
1. Alonso
2. Hamilton
3. Vettel
4. Schumacher
5. Sutil
6. Kubica
7. Barrichello
8. Button
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Surely if the Red Bulls / Ferrari pass all the new tests then McLaren will have an equally law bending rebuff. By the same thing if they get found to be illegal then they will have a legal version to use.. The gap is huge at the moment but I'm sure it will even out as it always does.. I think we will have 1 or 2 more twists this season.
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RedBull will be on pole again, as they always are. Spa (and Monza, most likely) is a track where the layout allows Ferrari and more specifically McLaren to offset the difference in performance by having better outright speed, but one should give credit where it's due : Newey has developed one hell of a car.
I think it's safe to expect Webber or Vettel on pole, but Ferrari and/or McLaren could manage to upset them for once (like Hamilton did in Canada). There's also the rain that one should keep an eye on, rain during the qualification could bring plenty of surprises on the eventual starting line-up.
Free Practice is just the shortified version of testing for teams now, only the qualifying session will really tell how others stand in comparison with RedBull.
Regarding the "flexi-wings", McLaren could (and probably should) just come up with something similar or better, it's not like they lack qualified engineers or bright minds. If they do want to win the championships, maybe they could start by spending more time and work on their rear-blown diffuser.
Let's see if Hamilton can conjure something up this weekend, he might just.
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my top 3 for pole
1, Hamilton
2, Alonso
3, Webber
Race result
1, Hamilton
2, Webber
3, Kubica
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So the new tests from Monza onwards will be designed to target the bib (or splitter, as it is also known). Are you sure about the technical regulatitons? I seem to have read that they would change the requirements into having the plank in two parts with neither shorter than 1 meter.
If Red Bull does something to make the splitter go upwards it could clip their wings if it is banned. Remember Ferrari did the same with a loaded spring in the first race of 2007, and they were utterly dominant as well. Kimi was untouchable.
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I don't agree that McLaren need to score heavily in the next two races or it will all be over for them. Of course they do need to get points if at all possible, but to say it will all be over is just short sighted.
F1 can move very very quickly sometimes. A lot may depend on the FIA ruling on flexible bodywork - that could change things immediately. But don't forget that both Vettel and Webber are both very good at not finishing. They are both the type of driver to get involved in an accident as neither give an inch and both are slightly too impatient which has proved their downfall - will they change anything about their driving style in order to pick up points and avoid going out? NO they wont. Possibly the last couple of races could see drives for points but not until then.
McLaren could make the jump to light speed at any time too and there are 7 races left with 175 podium points up for grabs. Alonso is going to take points off people - but which people? If Alonso starts to get poles everything will change. It will keep the front runners closer together inviting more incidents... and making viewing more exiting for us all to watch too!
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McLaren Drivers Grid Positions so far in 2010:
Hamilton 9 – Button 4
When are BBC commentators going to acknowledge that Button is the slower of the 2 McLaren drivers and stop bumping Button up as if he is some special talent. Button at best is just a mediocre driver who was very lucky to find himself in the fastest car back in 2009 right at the start of the season. Button might be smooth but so are a lot of lorry drivers!
In the rare and lucky 4 occasions that Button was up on Hamilton, BBC boys praised him as if he is a phenomenon but have not heard you guys give half as much consideratoin to Hamilton for his 9 so far!
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I aggre with 12. Hamilton gets not enough as Button gets but I guess thats BBC. Well might be a career for him after as a lorry driver :P
One thing I have noticed is that the 2 commentators only one of them seems less biased, and it s definately Brundle. He seems to always walk past Hamilton on the grid on his grid walks. I think he did that since the Australian inccident which I find a pity. Mistakes happened and he needs to put his own biases aside. Fans want to hear from their drivers.
Quali was fantastic by the way. Hamilton was definately going to be on pole if it weren t for the drizzle. But it is exciting like this because we have a bit of action to look forward to!
Vettel is C RAP blaming his possible pole on mistakes. I ll give him another 10 years to get a championship if at all but I really do think he does not deserve it. He is a spoilt kid! I am a super Hamilton fan but after all this years conspiracies I really do think and wouldn t mind if Webber wins the title! it will be like this : smack bang in yoour face vettel eat that!
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correctiopn to first sentence *agree
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totally aggree with 11. very unbiased and neutral summary could be one hell of a reminding season
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9:4 hamilton, but only a handful of points between them; I think that tells it's own story about the drivers.
in recent times, only schumi has had a team moulded around him in the way Hamilton has; I'd like to see lewis move to another team to see how good he really is..
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#16 "in recent times, only schumi has had a team moulded around him in the way Hamilton has;"
Alonso was hired by McLaren in December 2005 for the 2007 season.
Hamilton was only announced at the start of 2007 as the driver for the second seat.
Who do you think the 2007 car was designed for? The world champ hired in 2005 on a multi-million dollar salary, or a rookie who had not even been hired in 2006 while the car was being designed and built?
And then you think in 2007 that McLaren, despite having a 2 time world champ on board and a car designed for him, decided to favour their rookie from the off (since he was beating Alonso pretty much from the off).
"I'd like to see lewis move to another team to see how good he really is."
He's already beaten Alonso in his rookie year in a car specifically designed for Alonso. Perhaps you'd like him to do it one-handed next time?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Lovely drive from Lewis Hamilton, just brilliant. He had 2 moments of sheer luck, the first being Mark hitting the anti-stall at the start of the race, and the second being him getting away without any major damage on lap 36 or something, at the Malmedy turn.
Webber drove a very good race too, rescuing 2nd place after that horrendous start, he kept his cool and earned his 2nd place with a bit of luck too, with Kubica getting it a bit wrong for his 2nd stop.
Vettel should go out and buy a new brain or something. Destroying his own race and Button's in one moment of madness. I think Jenson had problems of his own with the front wing, which probably explain why Lewis was taking almost a second per lap out in terms of margin.
McLaren needed the win, Hamilton needed the win, now let's see if they can make some interesting upgrades on their car for higher-downforce races, because they've got quite a few coming up later in the season, and RedBull will be monstrously strong in such track layouts.
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What sort of additional punishment will Vettel receive for causing an avoidable accident by taking Jenson Button out? Considering the 10 place grid penalty imposed on MS?
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Jake, Please clarify what watch is DC wearing today? We keep getting peeps of the lump of gold peeping out of DC's left sleeve!!
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Jake, Eddie & David. Who is going to be the brave one to ask that leading question? Where was the "dominant" RBR flexi wing today then??
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Reading this blog after watching the race just puts a smile on my face. Looks like Legard's Mclaren sources really pulled his legs making this blog quite nonsensical.
Secondly, there's no guarantee Mclaren can't make up the difference in performance. They did it last year, why not this year?
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i believe that lewis's meeting with the tyre wall, wasn't all luck. If you remember MB talking about Kobayashi's escape, saying that he did well to get it out of there. I thought Lewis's was much tougher to get out from, because he had to slow down to avoid the tyre wall but keep feathering the throttle to keep his car from being beached.
Lewis Hamilton does not get as much credit as he is due. He has already won more races than Button he has the racing mentality, but he doesnt get as much credit on the BBC.
Maybe it will only be after his career has finished, when you finally see how special Lewis is. The way he is driving I am already thinking of puttng with the Senna's, Prost's, Fangio's and of course Schumacher.
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