My Spanish Grand Prix predictions
The 2009 Formula 1 season is turning into a bit of a paradox.
On the face of it, it all looks fairly straightforward because Jenson Button has won three of the first four races.
Yet, on the other hand, we are all very excited by the dramatic way the new campaign has unfolded and a new order emerged.
Having said that, all signs point to Brawn being the class of the field once again and that is why the two Brawns stand at the head of my predictions for the Spanish Grand Prix.
1. Rubens Barrichello (Brawn)
2. Jenson Button (Brawn)
3. Mark Webber (Red Bull)
4. Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
5. Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
6. Jarno Trulli (Toyota)
7. Fernando Alonso (Renault)
8. Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
All 10 teams have tweaked their cars for the opening race of the European season but Brawn's updates look like they have given the championship leaders an extra half of a second over their rivals.
Brawn have altered their advantageous double-decker diffuser as well as modifying their front wing and bodywork.
In first practice, Rubens Barrichello ran the old car and finished 10th while Jenson Button ran with some of the upgrades to top the session.
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Barrichello switched to the new-specification Brawn in the second session, finishing fourth fastest, while Button, who finished sixth, tried out the new front wing.
In both sessions, the Brawns looked very competitive even though they were running with heavier fuel loads and on longer runs.
I am expecting to see a Brawn driver on top of the podium on Sunday and this time I am going for Barrichello.
The Brazilian has been impressive this weekend and the team say he has settled into the updated car very well.
It would be easy to pick Button to collect a fourth win this season but I am going to switch things around and say the Englishman will follow Barrichello home in second.
Red Bull have been Brawn's closest rivals this season and I expect that trend to continue in Barcelona.
The team are satisfied with the modifications they have made to the front wing of their cars and are in confident mood.
The Red Bulls still look to be slightly ahead of the chasing pack and I am going for Mark Webber in third ahead of his team-mate Sebastian Vettel.
Toyota are not convinced their car is as competitive as it was in Bahrain, where Jarno Trulli finished third.
The team are expecting a leap in performance for the next race in Monaco or at the following Grand Prix in Turkey - when they say there are more upgrades to come from their Cologne HQ.
I have put Trulli in sixth place because he always qualifies well and that will give him a head start on a track where qualifying performance really does count.
Kimi Raikkonen seems to be buoyed by Ferrari's updates; the car is lighter and he was pleased with the effect of the F60's new front wing on Friday.
The Finn says the changes are significant - and they need to be - so I am putting the 2007 world champion in fifth.
Once again I'm backing Fernando Alonso to get in the points for Renault.
The team haven't bought a huge raft of technical updates to Barcelona but the Spaniard is on home soil and that is bound to make him lift his game.
Britain's Nigel Mansell reckoned he was able to find an extra second when he raced at Silverstone but I'm not sure Alonso will find that much in Barcelona.
I've gone for Lewis Hamilton to grab eighth place even though this is not a track that will work in McLaren's favour.
The Circuit de Catalunya's high-speed corners require cars to have a lot of aerodynamic grip and that's something McLaren don't have right now.
If you want a statistical gem to guide you to Sunday's likely winner then I have one for you.
There have been more winners from pole here than from any other track on the F1 circuit - out of 18 races held in Barcelona, 14 eventual winners started in pole position.
Let's see if that stat will be extended on Sunday.
I'm Jonathan Legard, the BBC's Formula One commentator. I'm really excited to be back in the world's fastest sport, which has always had a place in my heart. I'll be sharing my experiences and views with you on this blog throughout the season.
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~26~RS~)
Comments
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Do you have the rest of the grid? Keep up the good work and keep up that commentary volume over the Spanish fans who seem to be extremely loud.
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"There have been more winners from pole here than from any other track on the F1 circuit - out of 18 races held in Barcelona, 14 eventual winners started in pole position."
Not this year! Alonso will be on pole, easily, but compromise his entire race by having less fuel on board than my lawnmower.
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i think massa will get some points this weekend, although he was slower than hamilton in practise i think he will atleast get a point. anyway i hope he does.
what happened to toyota?
its not gonna be a 1-2 for brawn. and i am 100% sure barichello wont finisg first. he was quite of the pace 2 day compared to button. i think button will again. (boring)
hope hamilton does somethin amazing this weekend
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I do hope your right about Mark Webber. I would love for him to prove that he is good enough to be in the same team as Vettel. All us Webber fans would like to see that!
Keep up the great work Jonathan! It's a pleasure to spend the weekends' F1 in yours and the BBC company.
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I tend to agree with you about Rubino beating Jenson but if it rains as expected then I expect Lewis to be higher than 8th
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McLaren are a bit off the pace in practice but that could be due to a heavy payload of fuel. Getting through the first chicane at Catalunya safely is vital so good qualification is a nessecity. The problem with practice is that a lot of psychology is employedf to play mind games so it cannot be used as a barometer of the real pace of the cars.it is a poor
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I'm predicting a wet race (or, at least, a partial wet race) so have Vettel, Button, Alonso as the podiums (in that order). Like BigBadDaveB I believe Renault will fuel Alonso light to give him pole on his home GP. It'll help him during the race but the rain will come and Vettel will strut his stuff to the finish again.
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Button or Barrichello for the win. Not sure about the rain. I doubt a Ferrari will be in the points and I don't think Alonso will be on pole for the same reason as in 2008. Where's Rosberg? I'm not sure on Hamilton being in the points and I believe the Toyota's will be further up. Webber should beat Vettel.
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I don't think that Hamilton will be in the points, and I would go for another JB win. Webber second, Barrichello third.
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Lewis_Hamilton_Rulz:
What a ridiculous comment that was. Jenson Button wins 3 races and you say if he wins again it will be boring? So when Lewis won for the 9th time in 2 years last year in China was it boring? Jenson has won 4 times in his whole career in Formula One spanning a decade. He is British, you should support him. Anyone who is a proper F1 fan would not begrudge such a hard working professional such wins. I think Lewis is brilliant but you are a single minded F1 fan who probably started following the sport half way through the 2007 season when Lewis started winning races.
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Can't see anyone beating Button & Ross and can't see Webber beating Vettal much as I would like to see him win a race.
1. Button
2. Vettal
3. Trulli
Lets hope for a good race
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What about Nico Rosberg? He's been very quick in practice but faded in races? How do you think he'll fair this weekend?
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Nobody tastes victory more than those who once tasted victory but are now defeated. With my predictions from Friday in Melbourne to the end of lap 12 in Bahrain having been near perfection, I was confident and even cocky man. Lap 13 my arrogance began to sink, by lap 20 it was sunk, as I cried it into my beer. My predictions rapidly looked ill conceived and foolish!
I've heard rumors of rain. The percentages are quite low, but the possibility very realistic!
Button to beat Barrichello, whatever conditions. Jenson's silky style will suit the flowing high speed corners and his soaring confidence will give him a few nickels and dimes over his Brazillian team mate.
An unexplainable sense makes me envisage an ever improving Mark Webber actually getting the better of the young German in the sister car to conclude the top 3. Maybe his anger over Bahrain will push him that bit further! Vettel will be a close 4th.
The rest?
5. Rosberg
6. Raikkonen
7. Hamilton
8. Alonso
Finally, not to criticise Jonathan, but I have found this a far more accurate pointer to what lies ahead in a GP weekend: http://www.itv-f1.com/Feature.aspx?Type=James_Allen&id=45806
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1) Button
2) Vettel
3) Barichello
4) Webber
5) Rosberg
6) Alonso
7) Massa
8) Hamilton
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"Anyone who is a proper F1 fan would not begrudge such a hard working professional such wins. I think Lewis is brilliant but you are a single minded F1 fan who probably started following the sport half way through the 2007 season when Lewis started winning races."
Seriously??!! I have my doubts you're a proper fan. Button has proven over the years, he's more interested in outside activities and toys than he is in developing a great car. Where's he been since 2000.
He's lucked into a Honda paid car which has been developed for the last 15 months by Brawn's team. Yes, I know it's badged Brawn, but Honda are no doubt commiting hari-kari at the moment...
Button is boring, in the same way Prost was mind numbingly boring. He's proven to not be a racer. Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel, and before that Senna, Mansell and Schumacher. Schumacher dominated in great cars but he also developed Ferrari into the dominant force of last 10 years. Unbelievable to hear the media comparing Button to Schumi simply because he's beating Barrichello.
All the greats win in cars which have no right to be there, Senna countless times, Lotus years and Mclaren in 1992 and 1993, Schumacher in the 1996 abomination of a Ferrari, Alonso last year in Singapore and Japan. I could go on.
Hakkinen to my mind was one of the most over-rated drivers ever, he won in a Newey car in 1998 and 1999, and if you listened to Murray Walker, it was because of his ability. Funny thing was Mansell, Prost, Damon Hill and Villeneuve won because of the Newey cars. Always angered me the division of respect for the drivers, after all Hill nearly developed an Arrows into a winner in 1997, and he gave Jordan their first win, Mansell won in Williams and Ferrari, It was his input that transformed The William steam in 1991 to champions after years with Boutsen and Patrese at the wheel...
Button has lucked into a great car as Hakkinen did, so stop bleating on about how great he is and be grateful he's had a break.
If Alonso was in that car, Button wouldn't see which way he'd gone.
Final point, if the press is right, Button was indulging his girlfriend after Melbourne... shouldn't his focus be on F1, living and breathing it?
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This curcuit has suited the Ferraris in the past, what chance of a Ferrari on the poduim? But Im thinking the reason for most of there past success is now heading his own team, I cant see past a strong performance from the Brawns. Vettel is driving immaculatley this season and is getting the best out of his car so he should be in the frame. Alonso performs well at home and will be wanting to kick start his season on home tarmac.
1.Button
2.Vettel
3.Barrichello
4.Alonso
5.Raikkonen
6.Webber
7.Hamilton
8.Truli
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I have a question that might be worth raising - With the possible budget caps coming into F1, are we not likely to see major manufacturer-backed/owned F1 teams simply circumvent some of the most significant costs (such as team salaries, R&D and wind-tunnel, composites, manufacturing etc) by incorporating them within the parent organisation who will in turn lease them to the F1 team at a nominal fee? What currently costs tens of millions of dollars could potentially cost $1, and the only costs they need have in their budgets are the physical costs of manufacture, purchasing from 3rd party suppliers, and logistical costs.
Fiat, BMW, Toyota, and Mercedes Benz could surely justify these costs since they're already paying anyway, and creative accountancy wouldn't see them spending any more but would allow the teams to operate in the cheaper and more liberal tier of F1 but continuing on their mega-bucks budget.
What do you think?
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I hope this is Marks Race this weekend.
By the Way: Massive News: The FIA have dropped the most wins system! No lie, see [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator] for more details!
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1. Vettel
2. Button
3. Trulli
4. Rosberg
5. Hamilton
6. Kimi
7. Webber
8. Alonso
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1. Vettel
2. Button
3. Trulli
4. Barrichello
5. Hamilton
6. Kimi
7. Webber
8. Alonso
9. Glock
10. Kubica
11. Kovelainen
12. Massa
13. Piquet jr
14. Buemi
15. Nakijima
16. Heidfeld
17. Fischella
Bourdais (out)
Sutil (out)
15.
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Sorry to be a pain, but could you guys pronounce "Vettel" correctly? It's beginning to irritate!
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I will go for:
Button
Vettel
Alonso
Trulli
Webber
Rosberg
Barrichello
Hamilton
I have a feeling the Ferraris will choke again and that Barrichello might have a bad start/qualifying and not recover.
I really hope McLaren sort things sooner rather than later. Hamilton's driving style is so comparable to Senna's and Vettel's to Schumacher's. So we could actually have something similar to what might have become an epic, long term battle between two great of the sport.
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Dear Jonathan,
I want to have a good old moan about Kovelainen.
This driver, pound for pound,has to be the biggest underachiever in F1 today. If not careful, he'll eclipse Ralph Scmuey as the biggest one ever.
He's shadowed Alonso's ex-F1 drives and ended up being just that - a shadow.
What's he done of note? What has been his contribution to the sport?
He goes to Renault to take Alonso's place and in doing so takes the team backwards.
Then he takes over Alonso again at McClaren to be gifted one win so far only because half the field ahead of him limped off.
Give the drive to Pedro De La Rosa, or are McClaren worried that another Spaniard is going to pop The Golden Boy's stratospheric ego?
Anyway - predictions:
1. Barrichello
2. Webber
3. Button
4. Vettel
5. Alonso
6. Raikkonen
7. Hamilton
8. Trulli
This will be totally wrong of course, but the rational explanation is that you have the top 2 teams up there with 1 and 2 finally deserving the luck their drives deserve. 5 because of home territory, though Alonso has had a glint in his eye on Renault's progress. 6 and 7 because of the car's improvement coupled with the drivers' abilities and 8 - for it takes a special driver to make a car so full of early potential and promise look mediocre.
Kovelainen managed to complete more than one lap last time, so I'll predict he won't make it to the first corner; hail a taxi to Las Ramblas and watch the rest of the Grand Prix from a cafe whilst tucking into churros.
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Are you still sticking to this after the Prancing Horse performance in practice 3? Must admit though, I had no sound as was watching at work, so they may well have been running very light!!
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Hi Jonathan,
We have a prediction game at school where we award points for the most accurate predictions. I'm 4th out of 6 at the moment so not great!
Anyway, here are my predictions:
1. Timo Glock
2. Jenson Button
3. Rubens Barrichello
4. Lewis Hamilton
5. Jarno Trulli
6. Kimi Raikkonen
7. Sebastian Vettel
8. Mark Webber
Keep up the great work Jonathan. All the best.
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Need i say anymore on Kovalainen?
Give the car to Pedro De La Rosa - please....
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Its the car not the driver Carlonso...................
In F1 its is 70% engineering and 30% skill.
Pedro De La Rosa would probably be worse.
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Brilliant qualifying...! What's happening to Kovalainen and Raikkenen...? I'm almost feeling sorry for Alonso..almost. What's up with Herowassenna's feelings about Button? He made some poor decisions over the past few years after a really promising start, but Hero should listen to what Brundle and co say about his smooth style of driving - they're positively crowing, and not just because he's British. In fact, bearing in mind the rather anti-British sentiments sometimes creeping out of the F1 management, I think he and Brawn have done pretty well (understatement) to be where they are. Good luck to then tomorrow.
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Great job today Jonathan! What a close session. Maybe over the weekend someone from the team can get an inverview with Sir Jackie Stewart, we haven't seen him this year on TV.
What are your thought on car weights? I think Rubens has more fuel than Jense or Seb, I think he will win too.
Keep up the good work.
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Dear me Herowassena, that was the longest off topic rant I have ever seen! Your didn't comment in the slightest upon what I said! As a Button and British racing fan for many years, I merely commented upon the fact that the original poster (think it was Lewis Hamilton Rulz) claimed Button winning was boring, and after years struggling in a below par Honda I'm certainly not begrudging him his wins! Cue a load of waffle about past racing drivers when I was merely saying that Button deserves it. I didnt actually make a racing point, just said I was happy Button was winning! Congratulation on satisfying your clearly large ego and wish to show your knowledge of F1 racing history.If you dont believe Button deserves his wins then fine, but as a Brit I do, and his performance today in a car he clearly isnt happy with vindicates my views.
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Seems to me, from the blog on downward, the one conclusion is, don't try and predict before qualifying. The chances are you are going to be horribly wrong.
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Top3-
1st Jenson
2nd Vettel
3rd Stay cool Baby.
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Pit Stop Prediction
Name First stint
Jenson Button 17
Sebastian Vettel 19
Rubens Barrichello 18
Felipe Massa 21
Mark Webber 19
Timo Glock 17
Jarno Trulli 21
Fernando Alonso 16
Nico Rosberg 26
Robert Kubica 23
Kazuki Nakajima 30
Nelson Piquet Jnr 30
Nick Heidfeld 30
Lewis Hamilton 33
Sebastien Buemi 31
Kimi Raikkonen 28
Sebastien Bourdais 27
Heikki Kovalainen 21
Adrian Sutil 29
Giancarlo Fisichella 21
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I predict there will be an allmighty coming-together on the first lap, taking out most of the leaders, and somehow Webber will make it through and win with Sutil & Force India geting their first ever points.
Why do I say this? Because like the rest of you I haven't really got a clue what will happen, but if it turns out that's how it goes you guys will have to kiss my **** for the rest of the season lol!
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please stop commentating.. bring back james allen!
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rocketcar9 - Legard is a good commentator, no offence but he speaks slowish James Allen is like OOOOOWWW Massa spins and has a good voice ..... he just makes it more exciting for me
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I think Allen & Leggard are both good commentators in their different ways, but probably James Allen gave a better contrast to Martin Brundle purely because of his voice tone and delivery.
Not a criticism of anyone, except perhaps the BBC if they didn't consider how the two would sound together. There was something about Allen's bursts of enthusiasm, whether you liked them per se or not, which did convey a bit of youthful exuberance which is perhaps lacking now. It's a bit like MotD without Mark Lawrenson - he can drive you to tears but he gives a contrast that somehow works..
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ice-poweredDanBrown - love that you referred to Massa as 'Stay Cool Baby', glad I'm not the only one who found that hysterically funny.
Dont mind Jonathan's commentry apart from its a bit footbally, you know how when the commentator jumps the gun and gets excited, jinxing events which then take a turn for the worse...I get a sinking feeling every time you get excited sorry Jonathan mate.
1. Button
2. Vettel
3. Barrichello
4. Glock
5. Webber
6. Trulli
7. Massa
8. Hamilton
I really feel for Kovalainen cos from what we see of him he's a lovely guy, just wish he'd find some form...
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KERS should help Massa (there were some good odds on him leading after one lap) at the start, but I'm not sure whether he'll hold on for a win. My gut says:
Jenson
Felipe (baby)
Rubens
Sebastian (Vettel, to be sure)
Jarno
Mark
Nico
Kimi
The fun part will be to see whether KERS and a quick Ferrari (1-2 in Saturday practice) will be enough to see Kimi get some points. I think it might, but I'm not sure.
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Surely Button's going to win this one too! He's got the car, he's got the reliability and he's got that ability to punch in those fast laps before pitstops to keep him ahead. This season has gelled magnificently for him and finally we get to see what he can really do with a decent car rather than the midfield rubbish he's been rolling around in before. He's got the bit between his teeth and he's going to win. I reckon it's going to be Button first, Vettel second and Massa third. With all the cash Ferrari's ploughing in, it's time they had a podium finish!
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to #37 allena and brundle went so well there wasnt this tesion between them and allens voice didnt make you depressed.. he went over the top... but didnt shout towards the end of every qually so that the audio is kinda muffled.. its the tone of voice i can not stand.. but i give it to him that he does obviously know his stuff but i think david croft would have been a better replacement for james allen rather than legard.
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If Button gets to the first corner 1st, with Massa in 2nd (very likely having KERS) then it's possible that he could take the win. In responce to the fact that Button has won the 1st 3 out of 4 races being boring... wasn't last year boring when only 3 drivers were capable of winning???
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Its shaping up to be an exciting grand prix,How about this for a mix?
1 Button
2 Massa
3 Webber
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REF 27
JP23-F1
Kovalainen has 30% of Hamiltons overall talent, if he's lucky.
Pedro De La Rosa cannot be any worse than that rally driver.
By 3 o'clock Kovalainen will be taking pictures outside the Sagrada Familia whilst mingling with the other tourists...
James Allen sounded like a playschool presenter.
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Well, after qualifying yesterday, I have to admit your Barichello, Button prediction was looking to be on shakey ground. How quickly things can change and it now looks more than feasible.
It would be great to see Rubens win today as he was looking a little deflated yesterday. I think it will give him a much needed lift.
It's only half way through though so lets see if your prediction holds.
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not bad, apart from the brawns being the wrong way round. I thought you were talking out of your backside with webber ahead of vettel.
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REF 44
At 3.00pm two tourists, Finnish in terms of appearance, were spotted buying each other ice creams outside the Sagrada familia cathedral in Barcelona...
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OK Herowassenna: where does that put Button now? You've gone a bit quiet...
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Was a bit risky making that prediction ahead of qualifying but you were just about spot on apart from the Brawns being the wring way around. Well done to Mark Webber! I was shouting and screaming at the TV when he came in for his 2nd stop. Brilliant stuff!
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The BBC coverage of Formula One has been absolutely fantastic. Compared to the previous advert ridden efforts, this coverage is a wonderful experience. ( I go back further than the halcyon days of Murray Walker and James Hunt) The practice coverage with Mssrs Croft and Davidson is particularly entertaining and informative.
There is however one fly in the ointment. It lies, I'm afraid with Jonathan Legard's commentary. He insists on using phrases like 'the Brawns are out' or 'Massa is out' when he means that they are actually on track and still racing. This has caused me a few heart-stopping moments as I immediately think that these drivers have retired from the race. Dear Mr. Legard, if by any chance you read this, please say something like 'on track'.
Otherwise, keep up the good work all and I look forward to seeing the excellent coverage from Monaco and all the rest to follow.
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one members blog was very missimformed it is correct to say that a lot of great drivers and world champions have benefitted in adrian newey cars
as have drivers in john barnard cars ect and other great designers but to say mika was just lucky to be in the best car and not truly quick is folly ,im a great senna fan but mika out qualified senna in a mclaren prior to his life threataning crash he was very fast in junior formular .put one over D C and was a true world champ rubinio driving style stems from his carting days and is quick over short stints on good tyres he does overdrive and button is smoother over a race distance your measured in f1 against your team mate in the same car
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Jonathan, someone loves you - You've been named as website of the week on F1 Fan Cast.... Check it out -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-15gwXHS6zU
It's a pretty cool blog too.
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Jonathan, I've been one of your biggest fans since day 1 and it's nice to see people now starting to eat humble pie and acknowledging they were wrong.
Keep up the good work mate.
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Jonathan has many fans (including me!)
http://josephsf1blog.blogspot.com/2009/05/shut-f-up.html
Quite rightly, people are eating humble pie and waking up to the fact that he is a great commentator!
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Dear Jonathan,
I am convinced that once Redbull install their double diffuser solution. They will be untouchable in terms of pace, So Brawn need to make hay while the sun shines because Sebastian Vettel is going to win the title this year. Button is very very good and consistent, but Vettel in my view is faster. What do you think?
If I may say so, you need to improve your game a bit in the commentary box. Your commentary isn't very engaging or exciting because of the slow paced......nature....with....lots...of pauses. It's really off putting and dull, and I think it affects the whole commentary from Martin as well in a negative way because the tone is very much that of a snooker match rather than a motor race. I'm trying to be constructive here rather than critical, You have a nice voice though much better than James Allen's bellowing. I hope to enjoy exciting races in future with exciting commentary, hopefully with you involved.
Richard Warner
(To the BBC, I dont expect this to be published, but i would like it to be read by Jonathan so please dont censor it, I'm trying to help!)
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#56, Replace Jonathan with James Allen? What a ridiculous idea, we've only just got rid of that awful commentator.
Jonathan is doing a fantastic job, keep up the good work Jonathan.
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I can't believe the FIA's attitude with the budget cap. F1 has always been about technical advantage (not just money) and lets not forget how much of this technology gets into real cars.
They are all ready impacting the teams with real money by the testing restrictions, so lets have a set of rules for all and may the best (or most inventive) team win.
No surprise Brawn has done well as they developed the car with Honda money and delivered by the best man in the game, Ross Brawn!!!
If Ferrari pull out because of this I for one will no longer watch, and I have been doing since the 70's.
By the way thank goodness we are back on the BBC, Fantastic coverage.
Tomo
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After reading this blog I can't believe the negative comments about the legend Legard, if any of you had listened to the 5-live commentary in previous years, you would know how much he knows about the sport.
As well as not talking like an excited school boy whilst missing the vital moment of the GP!!
The whole BBC team is a good balance although I do miss Mark Blundell & Louise Goodman, who were actually very good as well, but overall the BBC team is better.
Tomo
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