In one corner of the Highcliffe Hotel - the conference HQ - whispering Brownites encourage the hacks to crank up the election hype. In another, it's damped down. The only man who really knows - or matters - is keeping his thoughts to himself. So the election fever, a contagion always guaranteed to sweep through the media like mixamatosis through a rabbit colony, grows hotter. And Gordon Brown - in interview after interview this morning - makes a show of rising above it all, and reaps the benefits in the form of party unity, Opposition jitters and a sharper focus on the policy ideas he wants to set out and sell.

None of which means there won't be a snap election. Brown's second wind in the polls has, in the space of a fortnight, turned a dash to the polls into a viable option. One Brown friend told me he thought the chances were 50-50. "Gordon likes dealing in certainties. If we go now, we'll win," he said.

Maybe so. But not going now makes continuing in government a greater certainty still. An Autumn spending statement, even a tough one, a pull out of more troops from Iraq and a new programme of legislation can all be used to build up the Government's stock with the voters. Labour's lead in the polls may grow wider. Another Labour pollster described the Conservatives as a "shambles - and it won't get any better for them". And yet. And yet. Opinion poll leads - as they say in the investment ads - can go down as well as up.

I bump into Neil Kinnock in the hotel lobby. He knows all about ups and downs - mostly downs - and he's all against a snap election. "The moment he calls it, the same people who say he should win his own mandate will start calling him opportunistic." And another South Walean - the agent from a Valleys constituency - is convinced no-one will want to come out and vote on a dark, cold, November evening. "we can't get people to vote when the sun's shining, for God's sake". It sounds convincing, and I'm still sceptical about an autumn election. For now. Ask me again tomorrow.