BBC Sport's fuel-adjusted German GP grid
Mark Webber looks in an incredibly strong position to take his maiden Formula 1 victory in Sunday's German Grand Prix.
Not only did the Australian set pole position - but he was also comfortably fastest when the weight of fuel in the cars is taken into account.
The top 10 drivers in qualifying are not allowed to refuel before the race, so their grid positions are influenced by how much fuel they choose to put in their cars, and therefore when they will make their first pit stops in the race.
So the fuel-adjusted grid for the Nurburgring this weekend, with predicted first pit stop laps, looks like this:
1 Mark Webber (lap 20)
2 Sebastian Vettel +0.250secs (lap 19)
3 Lewis Hamilton +0.614 (lap 18)
4 Rubens Barrichello +0.617 (lap 14)
5 Jenson Button +0.838 (lap 13)
6 Adrian Sutil +1.474 (lap 28)
7 Heikki Kovalainen +1.524 (lap 21)
8 Felipe Massa +1.906 (lap 25)
9 Kimi Raikkonen +2.025 (lap 26)
10 Nelson Piquet +2.048 (lap 26)
That list throws up some interesting observations.
Leaving the Red Bulls aside for a moment, perhaps the most striking thing is the vastly improved pace of Lewis Hamilton's McLaren. Fifth place was already impressive enough in itself, but it turns out that the world champion is actually a de facto third fastest.
That is a quite incredible leap forward from where McLaren were at Silverstone, and it backs up McLaren's claim that the new front wing, diffuser and top bodywork they have brought here amounts to about 0.75 seconds in lap-time gain.
Hamilton is still more than 0.6secs slower than the two Red Bulls, but to be faster than the Brawns on merit is a momentous achievement, even taking into account the problems the white cars are having getting their front tyres up to operating temperatures in the cool weather.
The Brawns are clearly in trouble for a second race in succession - Button is more than 0.8secs slower than Webber on fuel-adjusted time and is probably stopping seven laps before the Australian.
The two Red Bulls actually have exactly the same weight of fuel on board. That means the team have been true to their word to allow their drivers to continue battling it out on an equal footing.
They have effectively said to the drivers - go out and see who is fastest and we will work out the strategy from there. Usually, the guy in front as the first stops approaches gets the best strategy. All things being equal, that should be Webber. He will just have to make sure he does not make a mess of his start.
Vettel will want to try to beat his team-mate, of course, but starting where he is in fourth on the grid he has much bigger immediate worries - particularly how to stop the McLarens from getting ahead of him at the start.
Both Hamilton and Kovalainen have the Kers power-boost and energy storage system on their cars, and here at the Nurburgring that is reckoned to be worth as much as 20 metres between the start and the first corner.
Given that there are seven metres between the grid positions, that equates to nearly three grid positions. If the start is wet - as is predicted - Kers will be less of an advantage. But even so there is a very real possibility that Vettel could find himself behind at least one McLaren by the first corner.
If that happens and he is stuck behind them for a significant portion of the race, the German's chances of beating Webber are virtually non-existent.
This is exactly what stopped Vettel challenging Button for victory in Bahrain back in April, so he will be acutely aware of the risk. As Bahrain proved, though, being aware of it is one thing, doing something about it quite another.
In his eighth year in F1, then, the stage seems set for Webber finally to score what would be an immensely popular first win.
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~19~RS~)
Comments
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I would have thought Sutil's performance was worth a mention. Hopefully the weather plays up and this will be a belting race. Hamilton to win if it rains.
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Hamilton is looking REALLY good for this race, and the track doesn't really suit the McLaren..
Great Stuff ;)
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If it rains then, Sutil has the best strategy, Hamilton should shine, Brawn has Ross and Button and Barrichello (accomplished wet weather drivers), Webber has a chance, Vettel has a chance, Piquet might eat Alonso as he beat Alonso in the wet Q2 (luck came to him as well) and the rest of the field will be a mess.
Webber for the win in normal conditions with the Brawns filling the rest of the podium. I'm too confused to predict anything and the way tomorrow plays out will be key.
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Really hope we get a wet race, would love to see Webber get his first win, Hamilton back on the podium and Sutil especially to do well (a podium finish would be fantastic, tho even just getting it qualified as well as he did is great, especially when the fuel adjusted grid is accounted for).
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Should be good as long as it rains. The start should be fantastic. I think if it's dry, it'll be one of the Red Bulls, but if it's wet, any of the front 5 could win.
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tommybrusher, I was thinking the exact same thing. Was just coming down to the comment box to post it, and realised you'd got there first. The Mclaren's pace is impressive, considering the problems they've had this season, being over a second faster than his team-mate, but Sutil has blasted into not only Q3, but also above everyone, excluding the Red Bulls, Brawns and that suddenly quick yellow helmet.
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It's worth bearing in mind that those estimated stop laps are for a dry race. At the moment, it looks like it's going to be wet - in which case you can add six or so laps. And then there's the potential intervention of a safety car, which would mean the cars use less fuel again.
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Rain in F1 is synonyms to unpredictability and as such a possible winner outside those already mentioned is a possibility. Raikkonen or Massa, perhaps or even Kovalainen.
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Surely Sutil deserves a mention qualifying above the Ferraris with more fuel! Incredible performance and his strategy may play out well for him.
I would for Sutil to win in a crazy wet race. Though I have a feeling of Hamilton pulling something out of the bag just to prove that he is still world champion and is still racing.
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Wow i'm very suprised by Lewis as my name says i'm gonna be suporting him VERY much this weekend,
If it rains......
1 Hamilton
2 Webber
3 Vettel
4 Sutil
5 Barrichello
6 Kovailinen
7 Button
8 Alonso
9 Massa
10 Piquet
If it doesn't rain.....
1 Webber
2 Hamilton
3 Vettel
4 Barrichello
5 Button
6 Massa
7 Sutil
8 Raikkonen
9 Alonso
10 Kovailinen
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My money's on Hamilton for a podium finish. Isn't it great to have the McLarens back! A spot of rain and its going to be a great race to watch.
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Spins and craches if it rains anyone?
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Is it just the Hamilton fans that want a wet race ?
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It looks like a very interesting race is in the making, I would imagine that Brawn are now hoping their drivers can make good on their lighter fuel load and then praying for rain around lap 12/13, otherwise they are in for a long hard afternoon that could well see them falling down the points.
Sutil is probably the next biggest surprise for me, to be heavier than both Ferrari's and out qualify them is a fantastic achievement for him and the team, fingers crossed that he can capitalise on his hard work without encountering the misfortune that has plagued him in previous races when he has been in such a strong position to score points.
McLaren must be jumping for joy, Lewis 3rd fuel adjusted is fantastic news for them given the atrocious season they have had so far. Kovy has also shown his metal qualifying so well in his old speck car, it will no doubt give him some much needed encouragement. I wonder if they do well in the race if McLaren might not decide its worth throwing a bit more effort into this season.....
I wonder how long it will be before Ferrari decide to abandon this years car in a similar manner to McLaren to focus on next years car.
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Hmmm, what exactly is Ross Brawn thinking?
Don't write them off yet!
It would be nice to see Lewis have a good race and actually not get lapped!
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I'm not convinced that the simple maths of so much kilos of fuel equates to so much lap time. In yesterdays qualifiying grip was they key factor in changing conditions. It would appear that the slicks were on the marginal side. My theory is that a bit of additional weight would have improved grip to the extent that the penalty of the additional weigh was negated! So with a bit of extra weight Button could have been there with Webber!
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Caterhamdriver~
When there is more fuel in the car it gets heavier the more heavier it gets the LESS grip they have because thhe car slides everywhere...
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Dedicated_Lewis_Fan
I have to disagree.
Under normal conditions cars are slower with more fuel purely because of the weight. Its the same as driving a road car full of passengers, it will take longer to accelerate and longer to slow the car down than it would with no passengers. The weight would only very slightly improve the grip NOT make it worse.
I agree with Caterhamdriver
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I'm really looking forward to this race. With rain expected, it will be a complete lottery as to who wins it. Webber still has the best chance but I can't remember an occasion where he has excelled in the wet conditions (I am prepared to be corrected though) whereas the drivers behind have all proved themselves. I don't reckon much for the Ferrari's though - I keep thinking back to Silverstone 2008 where Massa may as well drove the other way round the track. ;-)
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It wouldn't surprise me if the Webber may win even a wet race. Though, it'll be good to see Hamilton on the podium and hats off to Sutil too. Though, as my name may show, I may be a bit bias... (not saying anyone else is...)
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Adrian Sutil to get a PODIUM if it's wet. Wouldn't mind betting there'll be a monumental crash around 10-12 position at the start if it's wet. And the Ferraris never seem to drive well in the wet, so emadf1, I have to disagree!
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One of you asked what Ross Brawn was thinking. Well, he explained his through processes in a media conference on Saturday evening: "We knew they (Red Bull) had probably about 0.5secs on us here in the conditions weve got and we took the view we wanted to be at the front out of the way of trouble because I think it will be quite an eventful race. The worst thing would have been to be back in fifth or sixth or even worse. Then wed have been in a lot of trouble."
Which just emphasises how much Brawn are struggling in the low temperatures here.
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I've got a quid on Webber so, as much fun as a wet race will be, can we keep it dry please?
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Its not as simple as wet/dry. If the weather's changeable, tyre changes will be needed, and it'll help those on low fuel who would have to pit anyway.
Sutil could be onto a points finish, though if Raikkonen's close behind him, he might get a bit nervous...
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Lewis Hamilton did a great job all weekend, so 5th not really a surprise. But Kovalainen is in 6th, without the new car mods.
Of course, the fuel-adjusted times make the gap between the two a bit bigger but I cannot help wondering how much of the McLaren improvement is real progress and how much is down to this track happening to suit them more?
I'm not saying the new mods have not helped, but it does seem that even the old car goes quite well round this track. Last race the McLarens are down with the also-rans, this race even the same old car is up in 6th.
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FutureF1 in fuji 2007, webber was second behind hamilton in the pouring rain until a certain sebastian vettel took him out behind the safety car. Webber can perform well in the wet and the red bull's grip means they can be more aggressive in the corners unlike the other cars. i can't see past a red bull one-two IF the weather stays the same throughout. If the weather keeps on changing it's anyone's race.
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Sorry to be bearer of bad news guys - but we are sat on the Ford curve with our Welsh flag supporting Lewis and Jenson - and its baking in the sun ! There is much removal of clothing and weatherproofs all around - sunglasses breaking out everywhere - have to say the crowds are very sparse here this year ! Got our fingers crossed for some rain later but for time being looks very bright for miles around ...
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"Under normal conditions cars are slower with more fuel purely because of the weight. Its the same as driving a road car full of passengers, it will take longer to accelerate and longer to slow the car down than it would with no passengers. The weight would only very slightly improve the grip NOT make it worse."
It depends really. Going downhill, if you have more fuel on board you will have to break earlier into the corners due to a higher momentum as a greater mass means a greater force of gravity will be acting on a car moving downhill (you will have less grip). Obviously going uphill with a heavier car it will be slower because there is a stronger force of gravity acting against it. Along a straight a car with a greater fuel load will be able to build up more momentum, but slower, and will not necessarily have more grip. Therefore in theory it should be better to have a lighter car.
Grip is generally down to the tires or downforce as it depends on the friction between the tyres and the road. This explains why the Brawns having trouble with the cold conditions gives them less grip than the Red Bulls.
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I hope its a mixed weather race as we all know if this will throw up some intresting names and drivers such as lewis deals with wet and mixed race very well. I think Vettel is the danger man today as he is out to out do Webber.
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I think Hamilton will take the top step, - BUT - I think the ferraris are ones to watch - they can go much longer, and if it rains, they can change their strategy much easier than the others, without losing too much ground.
But as Im a Mclaren fan, Lewis for the 1st place, also dont count out kovalainen also, he is overdue for a good showing.
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Ah - looks like kovalainen has taken this opportunity to get up into third place !
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24. At 11:17am on 12 Jul 2009, SewerSide wrote:
Sutil could be onto a points finish, though if Raikkonen's close behind him, he might get a bit nervous...
What did I say?
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