BBC Sport's fuel-adjusted British GP grid
Red Bull drivers Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber appear to be the only men who have any chance of winning the British Grand Prix when it comes to the pure pace of their cars.
Brawn's Rubens Barrichello split the two Red Bulls on the grid, relegating Webber to third place, but once the weight of the cars in qualifying is taken into account, Vettel and Webber were first and second fastest. And Vettel's advantage over Barrichello, the fastest non-Red Bull, was more than 0.6 seconds.
The top 10 drivers in qualifying are not allowed to refuel between qualifying and race, so they must qualify with the fuel with which they will do their first stint on Sunday - which varies depending on when they will be making their first pit stops.
When the weights of the cars are taken into account, the fuel-corrected grid, with estimated first pit stops, looks like this:
1 Vettel (lap 21)
2 Webber +0.597secs (lap 18)
3 Barrichello +0.653 (lap 17)
4 Trulli +0.871 (lap17)
5 Rosberg +1.022 (lap 19)
6 Button +1.086 (lap 16)
7 Nakajima +1.183 (lap 15)
8 Glock +1.202 (lap 18)
9 Raikkonen +1.391 (lap 16)
10 Alonso +1.657 (lap 16)
So the Red Bull is well over half a second a lap quicker than the Brawn around Silverstone - a huge margin, especially considering Jenson Button had the legs of his rivals Turkey two weeks ago, taking a fuel-corrected pole position (even though he qualified second), and dominating the race.
That confirms what a huge step forward Red Bull have made with their car for Silverstone, thanks to the new nose, diffuser, engine cover, rear wing and revised weight distribution. It also suggests that, assuming their form is carried over to race day, Vettel and Webber will stage a private battle for victory.
Vettel's advantage over Webber is massive on paper - but it is not representative of their true pace because the Australian's best lap was ruined when he came across the Ferrari of Kimi Raikkonen dawdling on the racing line at Stowe corner.
If anything, Webber appeared to have a slight edge on Vettel during practice, but in qualifying events transpired to make a true comparison almost impossible.
Webber was faster by 0.011secs in first qualifying, but then the truly quick cars do not have to push to the limit in that session.
Vettel, who has enough fuel to stop three laps later than Webber, was then faster in what F1 insiders call Q2, but Webber only did one run to the German's two in that session.
So, even if no-one else is likely to get a look-in, an intriguing battle is in prospect between the two Red Bulls.
Behind them, Barrichello looks locked-on for third place, all things being equal, and championship leader Button faces a tricky afternoon from sixth on the grid.
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~50~RS~)
Comments
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Why doesn't Vettel have a balanced fuel policy? He's either light or heavy. If his tyres don't last for the first stint tomorrow, his advantage may be compromised.
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Red Bull seem to have pulled a very fast one out of the bag... Hopefully this won't be a one off and they will be able to challenge more for the rest of the season.
As for tomorrows race I dreamt last night that Jenson qualified 6th and went onto win on Sunday.... Looks unlikely I know....
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Hmmm. Vettel is going to have to take care of his tyres though.
Don't write Jenson off, a good start and who knows.............
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I reckon Webber was unlucky not to be on pole. However he is nowhere near as unlucky as Hamilton was. Good chance for Williams to shine this weekend though, and for Nakajima to pick up his first points of the season.
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The Red Bull pace is incredible. Adrian Newey rivals Ross Brawn as the most intelligent man on the grid.
Shame that Mark Webber couldn't get the leap on Sebastian Vettel, especially as he seemed to be quicker. Surely Webber would be the most popular non-British winner tomorrow.
The Red Bull pace is certainly what is needed to liven the championship up again, but it would have been fantastic to see Jenson Button triumph at Silverstone.
http://sportingchameleon.wordpress.com/
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How come I saw the piece fly off sutils car just as he braked. black object flew off to the right of screen.so not his fault
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rotaxvet
I think it was just something picked up off the track, and thrown into the air by the tyre.
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I wouldn't write Jenson off yet - he stops earlier than Vettel from further back but a good start could launch the Brawn to the front of the pack - Remember that Jenson's first ever F1 Victory was from 14th!
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Brawn has proved time and again he's the best strategist in the business.
If Barrichello gets a start like he did in Monaco he could foil the Red Bull's apparent dominance.
I hope he gets in front - then we'll have a cracking race more based on driver ability between Barrichello/Vettel/Webber/Button.
And the joker in the pack?
Trulli
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The only thing that can stop Vettel winning tomorrow is his own over-excitable nature, like on 1st lap in Turkey.
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Webber was up by about a tenth on Vettel before Raikkonen got in his way, and given the cars are both the same it's not unlikely that over the whole lap Webber would have been quicker by three tenths because of his lighter fuel load. In effect, the Red Bulls are probably even on pace, with Webber seemingly having the edge (especially when you take Q3 out of the equation). So the challenge for Mark will be to get past Barrichello at the start, try and overtake Vettel, and then just push. The pit-stops will even out eventually, and if I was Mark's race engineer I'd put him on a slightly longer middle stint in order to gain track position on Vettel after the second stop.
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Funny how Rubens has stopped crying now JB is behind him. Every week he has winged but not this one. YET!
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Even with Button being in 6th place their still is a big chance that he could win this race as they are not as slow as it seems and this is what champions of made of. So if he wants to become champion then he must win the race the hard way like Micheal Schumacher did many times.
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Has Raikonen been penalised for blocking Webber?
If not, why not. When plenty of other drivers have been for exactly the same thing?
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If F1 is meant to be the pinnacle of the sport, surely they have to have the freedom to spend whatever they can to develope?
All these changes to the regulations are diluting the sport we all love to watch.
Since 1994 there has been a plethora of rules and regulation changes and some have actually been recinded a few years on, grooved tyres now back to slicks?
I understand the need for safety changes but some of them seem to be, change for change sake.
Come on FIA, allow the teams to race and compete against one another instead of against these rules.
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Because he is a Ferrari!
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superslicks, Fully agree with your RB comment, but get the Kleenex out if JB finishes ahead of him! Regarding JB, if the stories in the press about his contract with Honda/Brawn are correct, I'm very impressed with his attitude & commitment, in taking a huge pay cut to drive for Brawn at the start of the season. It would have been easy for him to have insisted his contract was paid in full, and taken a year out of F1, setting himself up for life financially, & seriously compromising the fledgling BrawnGP venture in the process. Surely this has scotched the "playboy" image some people may still have of him.
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I thought Nakajima was 5th and Rosberg was 7th?
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Testoterone in F1 drivers makes for good racing, in politicians and administrators it leads to war and conflict
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It's a fuel adjusted grid.
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Sorry, that was in response to:
"I thought Nakajima was 5th and Rosberg was 7th?"
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Here's an excellent graphic showing the difference between the drivers in Qualifying yesterday...
http://www.pitlanefanatic.com/blog/index.php/46/vettel-dominates-qualifying-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-40
Vettel is looking really good for the win.
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having watched the race i was stunned by the extra speed one red bull had over not just its team mate but the rest of the field.
not since the heady days of schummaker had one car dominated with such a gap, does this mean ferarri will be eying up their next driver??
looking at strategy red bull have learnt from past errors and are progressing forward and the master tactition of brawn GP was flumuxed by poor qualifying and lack of grip.
well the next race will be fun :).
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