- 19 Jun 08, 10:00 AM
Vienna
OK, no beating around the bush. I'm tipping Germany, Croatia, Netherlands and Spain to reach the semi-finals of Euro 2008.
Why? Well, the Germans have the experience and mental toughness to win when it matters, the Croatians have oodles of self-belief, no-one can stop the Dutch scoring, while Spain have too much firepower for the stubborn Italians.
The Germany-Portugal quarter-final is being billed as Michael Ballack against Cristiano Ronaldo, but, for me, the key man in Basel will be Torsten Frings. That's if he passes a fitness test, of course. He will be the man who will be responsible for denying Ronaldo the space to weave his magic when he comes in off the flanks. But it will be a hard task. Ronaldo has such a short backlift on his shots that he only needs a split second to unload on goal.
As for Ballack, well, he is starting to show real glimpses of his majestic best. The free-kick against Austria was simply sensational. I know they slipped up against Croatia in the second group game, but the Germans can never be written off. They know what it takes to win big matches like these and I think they'll be too good for the Portuguese.
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Croatia-Turkey is bound to be a passionate affair. The two sets of fans are among the most emotional in the world. But I think Croatia will edge this one. They look such a cohesive unit, even when they made all those changes for the final group match against Poland. All their players look comfortable on the ball and they have a strong defence.
Nihat is the key man for Turkey. He made all the difference in their stunning comeback against the Czech Republic. If he's on song again, then the Turks may have a chance. That said, the whole team will be full of confidence after coming back from 2-0 down with 15 minutes to go against the Czechs. I suppose the worst thing that can happen if you're a Croatia fan is for your team to take the lead.
The Netherlands-Russia clash looks the most appetising given the form of the two sides. The Dutch are red hot, scoring nine goals in three group games and conceding just once. I can't see the Russians stopping them from adding to their tally, so that means they will have to score more than the opposition. With the likes of Andrei Arshavin in their side, they have the potential to do that. They were fantastic against the Swedes, creating chance after chance. Still, I don't think they can do it.
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It will be an intriguing game for lots of reasons, not least for the fact that Guus Hiddink will be going up against his countryman. His track record in major tournaments is one to be envied, but Marco van Basten has shown he is very capable, too.
Ironically, I think one of Russia's strengths could turn out to be one of the major weaknesses. Their full-backs like to bomb forward when the team is attacking, which could leave them exposed when the Dutch take their turn to go on the offensive. There is no better side in this tournament when it comes to exposing deficiencies at the back. That's why I'm tipping the Netherlands to come out on top.
Finally, it's Spain-Italy in the last of the quarter-finals. Everyone knows what I think of the Spanish by now. They've shown they have the flair, talent and resolve to go a long way. I think they'll have too much for Italy, though Roberto Donadoni's side have shown just how resilient they are, too.
The Italians came within a whisker of going out of Euro 2008 after just two group games, but thanks to Gianluigi Buffon's penalty save against the Romanians, they lived to fight another day. They brushed past France to secure their place in the last eight, but they will be without both Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso against Spain. It was going to be hard enough without those two, so I'm going for the Spanish.
So, that's what I think. Let's have your views...
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I agree with you Gav think germany v portugal could go to pens and germany coming out on top ! croatia will nip by the turks maybe 2v1 fancy the dutch to do russia 3v1 and italy and spain been another tight affair 2v1 to spain.
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Germany to beat Portugal - the Germans know how to win these games.
Croatia to beat Turkey - Turkey did well against the Czechs, they won't get the chance against Croatia.
Holland to beat Russia - This will probably be the tightest game for the Dutch so far, but they'll narrowly come out on top.
Italy to beat Spain - History tells us Spain always look like they have the credentials when they play the typical 'group' sides, but fail to deliver against the more established teams. I can't see anything different with this Spanish squad than of the others that have failed to deliver over the years. Italy on the other hand seem to be progressing as they did 2 years ago, and we all know what happend then.
By the way Gavin, all the best for Canada, hope it all works out, will be good to see what you're up to in a couple of years time.
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As much as i hate to agree with a so-called expert, I think you've got the semi-finalists spot-on.
Portugals main problem is that they dont have an out-and-out striker who is good enough - they rely too much on the flair and ability of ronaldo, deco, etc - and this will come up a little bit short against the efficiency of the Germans, who will grind out a result. Unless of course, ronaldo can finally produce a high-level performance in a big game.(wont hold my breath)
Croatia will be too strong for Turkey - they have been able to rest players and lets not forget that while Turkey's result was great, it only came about because of a one in a thousand howler from Cech. There was so much emotion attached to that game that i think this quarter final could be a big anti-climax.
Holland-Russia looks the best game on paper, lets just hope it lives up to the hype. I think Holland will just edge this because Russia's back four just aren't strong enough to cope with the attacking prowess that Holland possess. Ashevin made such a difference to the way Russia play with his vision and running off the ball but I dont think Holland will be as helpful as Sweden were in leaving wide spaces between their back four and midfield for him to exploit.
I think Spain will make it past Italy. The italians have lost both Pirlo and Gattuso, and I think this will make the difference. Their replacements just wont be able to fill the hole that these two players will leave, and with Spain totally full of confidence I think they will have too much for Italy.
So its Germany, Croatia, Holland and Spain for me, and I think the Spanish will ultimately triumph.
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Yep, seems a right prediction. Although in my opinion the key player for Portugal will be Deco and not Ronaldo.
It wouldn't surprise me though that we will see a penalty shootout in the Spain-Italy match.
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I agree with all your bets apart from the Spain vs Italy case. Its true Spain are on form but their backline is not at its best. Sergio Ramos, much as he is a quality player is a little erratic and he might just gift Luca Toni his first goal of the tournament. The absence of Pirlo and Gattuso is a blessing. It means we'll see the more successful AS Roma midfield lining up as opposed to the AC Milan midfield. Italy might not have the flair but they have what it takes
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Pretty well summed up Mr Peacock, although I think and hope, for the sake of the tournament, that the German side go out to the more entertaining Portugal team.
It would be such a shame if a repeat of 4 years ago were to happen, with 6 of the 8 quarter finalists trying to entertain whilst winning, then losing out to a side that play as if entertainment is something that should be confined to the collosium, (or in this case the Munich beer fest or the mass love-in, in the Papal village..
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Semi-final:
Germany
Croatia
Holland
Italy
final:
Germany - Italy
Don't ask me how Italy will beat Holland, but they'll do it. :)
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Bad news from the Holland camp. Khalid Boulahrouz' wife has lost her prematurely born baby in a hospital in Lausanne.
Khalid was called to hospital from the training ground in Lausanne yesterday.
Although he did train with the squad this morning, it is not clear if he will continue to be part of the team.
According to Dutch media a big shock has gone through the squad.
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Netherlands - Spain final.
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#10 Its impossible for Spain and Netherlands to meet each other in the final.
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Germany have been poor. The game could go eithe way: want Portugal, expect Germany.
Croatia Turkey. Yuk. Want neither expect Croatia.
Netherlands v Russia. No contest. In two years time Russia would win this. But this time around it will be the Dutch.
Spain v Italy. Either way. Can't see Spain failing to score more than Italy. But do they have the mentality? Cant predict it.
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Germany, Germany, Germany,....I simply, as a Belgian, do not understand all the fuss about Germany. As we all know, both in Euro 2000 and Euro 2004 Germany where knocked out in the groupphase without winning a single game. Germany used to be a real treat in any tournement but I feel in England the Germans are being overrated based on their topresults during the 70's, 80's and 90's.
Portugal may have the strongest side in this Euro-tournement including the best player on this planet. They will simply outclasse Germany.
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Honestly Gav, what are you on about with Spain? Against Russia they played well in attack, but the Russians were leaving boulevards through the center. And the spanish defence looked a bit frail, seeing the number of opportunities the Russians created. Against the more organised swedish defence, they found it much harder to carve out opportunities, and cearly lacked imagination going forward in the second half : their play was quite predictible. Shear resilience and a bit of luck allowed them to win it, but it wasn't impressive quality wise. Also, in the first half, they left Ibrahimaovitch unmarked for the Seweden goal. Talking about defensive frailties : there is one man that spells 'danger' up front for sweden, and they leave him unmarked. All through the first half, they also found it very hard to defend against high balls. How they are going to cope with a giant like Luca Toni baffles me, although Italy will be missing Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso...
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Sorry gavin i agree with your other 3 quater finals but i just cant see germany beating portugal when they are playing as bafdly as they have been, klose and gomez sem to have absolutly no link up play at all and so they are just relying on ballack and podolski to score there goals !!
Also can you actually see metzelder and mertesacker ( who both turn like cart horses by the way) being able to cope with the pace of ronaldo and simao and the the fresh legs of quaresma when he comes on ?
I think not... portugal will win this 2 or 3 nil.
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"I suppose the worst thing that can happen if you're a Croatia fan is for your team to take the lead." What a ridiculous comment!!
Portugal, Croatia, Holland all to progress. Italy v Spain very hard to call but without Pirlo an Guttuso Italy may just come undone!
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Good article ahead of the knockout stages.
My semi-final line up:
Portugal Vs Croatia
Holland Vs Spain
Final:
Croatia Vs Spain
Winners:
Spain
I expect Portugal to win tonight possibly by the odd goal in 3. Croatia to comfortably brush aside Turkey 2-0. Holland to struggle through against Russia, possibly AET. Spain to outplay the Italians and produce an
eye-catching victory, exorcising many demons and creating immense belief.
Bring it on.
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Most people seem to agree with you, and I'm no different. Croatia will have too much for Turkey. Actually I feel this wil be the least contested game of the four.
Germany I think will have the beating of Portugal. Portugal just don't have enough of a threat up front to break down an as-always-efficient Germany. That said, a lot will depend on whether Frings and Podolski are fit, as Gomez looks utterly useless in front of goal. Could go to penalties (Ronaldo to miss!)
Spain will have too much for an Italian side without Gattuso and Pirlo. The latter is the only really creative influence in their midfield and their defence is poor, especially by Italian standards. Furthermore, Toni is another striker who seems completely lost in front of goal. Don't know how he scored so many in the Bundesliga, but he looks like a lost donkey in these championships.
I reckon the Dutch will beat Russia without too much bother. Russia's performance in their last game was helped by a poor display from Sweden, but their defence looked all over the place any time the Swedes did get in there. Against an attacking threat like Holland, they'll be exposed time and time again. Arshavin is a superb player, but unfortunately no matter how many times he slips Pavlyuchenko through, he still won't score. This guy seems to create good space for himself, but alas, went to the same finishing school as Toni and Gomez.
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Hi Gavin,
I would disagree on two of your predictions. I think Portugal is too hot for Germany to handle. Specially considering the kind of defense Germany has shown in previous games. I would say Portugal will win.
And second one of your predictions is about Spain and Italy. I would go other way Italy will win.
Anyway we will have to wait what comes out :)
enjoy watching today's match
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We all start by saying "Hi Gavin", but does he really read this stuff that we write? You there Gavin?
If you're with us Gavin, knock twice...
...
...
...
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spot on just the four teams i was hoping that would go into the semi's.
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#20
I can assure you Gavin does read your comments.
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Portugal will beat Geramany this evening, they have too much skill, power and speed going forward the Germans will not be able to cope with them. Croatia will beat Turkey, Holland will beat the Russians quite easily, remember waht happened at Wembley we scored early and they dropped there heads. Italy will then beat Spain in extra time or penalties, and then Italy will make the Dutch pay for not losing to Romania, Italy will now win the whole thing, how many times do they sneak through and go on to the final!!! Plus Cassano is a daifferent class shame he left Roma.
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Yo. Think you've gotten the results right. Apart from the Germany vs Portugal game. That one could go either way. I'd prefer Germany to go through, however their centre backs look slow. It'll only take one good pass from Deco to find Nuno Gomes running between M and M. As you said Gavin. I think Frings'll have to work very hard in this game.
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You're going for the obvious choices. Tournament football never quite works out how you think it will. The Spanish have been less than exemplary at the back and Luca Toni is destined to get that elusive goal. I think teams like Spain and the Netherlands have peaked too early and we are yet to see the character of Holland, what if they go a goal down, what if a team knows about their counter attacking and decides to park the bus and wait it out, do they have a plan B. I think semi's will be Turkey, Germany, Italy and Russia...ths will be the tournament of upsets.
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Come on then gav make my life a bit easier, whats your fantasy football team look like for the quaters. hehe
I agree with the choices also and thats reflected in my fantasy team.
Germany know how to play the big games, the only one i wasnt sure about was the spain game but as italy have lost "not sure where they put them" 2 of there better players, i think its piped it spains way.
Holland to win the torni. I have to say that my Oma is Dutch!
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Cheers Phil G, good to know...
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I think Gav has got it wrong regarding Germany, I think Portugal will tear the German defence to bits with their pace and the German attack struggled against Croatia and Austria, in fact Germany look very much like England…slow, lacking creativity and weak at the back.
The Netherlands in my opinion will win the tournament, hopefully against Portugal. These two teams have been by far the best two sides, on the matches played so far I can’t see anybody stopping the Dutch and Portuguese.
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Portugal will win - I think Germany will have a bad game and'll be off form. I think they'll turn out to be too tired at the end. Will be very close though. Could even go to extra-time where I just can't see the Germans winning it, unless it goes to penalties!
Croatia will win - It won't be a classic game. I'd say it'll be scrappy but Croatia to win it. Although I love the Turks!
Spain will edge it by one goal! It'll be very close, Italy will try the counter, and'll have a very strong and resilient defence! It'll be very very close!
I'll probably be laughed at by everyone, but I've supported Russia since the first game. I just can't stop admiring Guus Hiddink. The guys been a miracle whichever country he's been to! He transforms the whole nation's football! Anyway, I think they'll lose by 2 goals but I certainly don't think it'll be a runover. If they're going to win, it's gonna be Guus's mastermind tactics. Surely his management is a few steps higher than Van Basten's! Credit to him as well, Holland have played the best football so far, without a doubt! But C'mon Russia!!
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I've sat through too many dull games between Europe's 'big boys'. I think tonight's game and Sunday's will be dull affairs where neither team takes any risks and the dull efficiency of Germany and Italy will come through again.
I thought Russia were out standing against the Swedes but I think they'll struggle against a team that defends well and can counter effectively. Unfortunately for Russia, the team that most fits that description is Holland. I expect Holland to win comfortably.
I think the best came will be Croatia - Turkey. Expectation is building for Croatia - there can't be too many matches they would play in the last eight and be the clear favourites. Turkey have absolutely nothing to loose. They also have scored two last minute winners - they'll be confident, relaxed and excited just to be in the 2nd stage. I think Croatia will win but I think this will be the pick of the semis.
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I think (and hope) Portugal defeat Germany. The Germans were very lucky to have such a weak group - better teams have gone out in harder groups. 3-1 to Portugal
Croatia v Turkey. I am looking forward to this one. Turkey did well to come back against both Switzerland and Czech Republic, but neither of those sides had the killer instinct Croatia possess. 2-0 Croatia
Holland v Russia. I think Holland will win, but I would like to see Russia make it. I like Gus Hiddink's footballing philosophy and I think the Dutch have been more clinical than spectacular. Most of their goals have come from counter attacks and I think they are a tad over-rated - certainly not the all round footballing unit Portugal are. 2-1 to the Dutch (but want the reverse)
Spain v Italy - the World Champions will struggle without Pirlo (probably the best passing midfielder in the world at present) and I cannot see the Spanish defence allowing Toni the amount of chances he needs to score (I count about 13-14 in this tournament so far without a goal). 2-0 to Spain
Semis (preferred lineup)
Portugal v Croatia
Russia v Spain
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I'm afraid I have to disagree with your four in the semi's Gavin.
Portugal have been a top side in these championships, brushing aside their opponents when it mattered, whereas Germany have only really stumbled over the line. I agree you cannot discount Germany in the knockout stages and if it does go to pens, Germany will win. But I take the Portuguese flair, which is not just ronaldo, to win through over German efficiency, which might not be enough.
I do believe Croatia are good enough to beat Turkey, but how high will the Turkish players be after their comeback against the Czechs! Croatia have to be wary, but I do see them having the beating of the turks.
Holland are full of confidence and goals it is true, but Russia suddenly looked a different side last night, the reason, Arshavin. He might be the difference between the sides and Holland don't have a massive backbone in the final stages of major championships. I take Russia to shock the Dutch in extra time.
Finally Spain v Italy. Never back against the Italians and never back Spain in the knockout stages. I agree Spain are a much better proposition than ever before and stand a great chance of winning the tournament with class all over the park, but remember how the Italians grew in confidence throughout the world cup. Having backed Spain at the start, I think this quarter final against Italy might just be their undoing and at the end of the day it might have been better to finish second and play the Dutch.
So for me its Portugal v Croatia and Russia v Italy. I do hope I'm wrong though!
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I'm sorry but I cannot see Germany beating Portugal. I live in Germany and I heard a well-known German TV commentator saying this morning that Germany only had a 10% chance of winning! That's confidence for you?! I agree with the comment posted by #13 that there is far too much hype about how well Germans play by the English largely because the English have such bad memories of losing to the Germans and because the Germans do have a tendency to make it through to finals like in 2002 even when playing badly. But I can't see it happening this time. The'yre playing with very little fluency and tempo up front. Podolski, Lahm and Ballack (when he's taking free-kicks) are the only players really performing to their full potential...
I think Portugal are a very welll organised unit under Scolari (who cares if they don't have an established striker? Absolutely irrelevant imo as they have shown so far...). I think theyare lucky that they are on the right side of the draw to avoid Holland in the semis.
I can see Croatia beating Turkey. They are much tougher opposition that the Czechs and don't give goals away on a plate. I can see Portugal being too strong for Croatia, however, in the semis.
Holland will edge past Russia but I think Hiddink will give them their toughest test yet. Unfortunately, Pavluchenko seems to need 4 chances before he can score one...
Spain v Italy is v. difficult to call. If Torres and Villa are on form again, they will tear the Italian defence (without Cannavaro) apart. But you never know....because I don't think much of the Spanish defence, especially if Puyol is not fit, and if Luca Toni actually works out where the net is located, then anything can happen...
I can see Holland beating Spain in the semis. They've just got an amazing pacey strike force and talent in abundance. They're riding on a wave of enthusiasm with an excellent coach in Van Basten.
I can see a Portugal v Holland final. From there, who knows....especially, if it goes to penalties because we know what the Dutch are like on penalties....
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In total agreement with poster number 13. I was scratching my head at the outset of the tournament as to why nearly every pundit was tipping Germany. The games so far have only served to reinforce my conviction - Germany really aren't that good!
Pundits still rely lazily on the cliched platitudes about German efficiency and that they 'know how to win these games', what does that even mean? As the earlier poster pointed out, their record at the last two championships has been appalling. Portugal got just as far at the last World Cup as well as reaching the final at the last Euro's, doesn't that mean they 'know how to win these games as well'? Analysis should be on the relative merits of the teams rather than ascribing virtues of teams past on to present ones. Having said all that I'm hoping the Germans don't make me eat my words!
On a completely separate note I have no idea what purpose Marcel Desailly is serving at these championships. Does the BBC vet people before it gives them a job? Granted, his English is marginally better than my French but then again Canal+ are not employing me as a summarizer.
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i can only see a germany - italy final , and heart break for portugal . so its germany , turkey , netherlands and italy as semi finalists
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i agree with most people really, germany portugal to go to penalties, but portugal just pull through.
Croatia to beat turkey 2-1, i think bilic has done remarkably well
netherlands to beat russia 3-1
spain to beat italy 2-1
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I think Croatia missing Eduardo and having a weakness in central defence, ie both over 30 will be their downfall. If they had Eduardo and one younger Central defender they could go all the way but out in the semi finals for me. Should beat Turkey though. Also Kalinic their young forward is tipped to be the new Suker, but he's much too young and inexperienced (21 and half an hour of international football) to do anything thusfar.
Holland should beat Russia at this moment in time, and the other 2 are too close to call.
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As good as Ballack's free-kick was, it was simply a direct copy of Kris Boyd's free-kick in the Scottish Cup Final (see here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiMR2sNM8e0).
Actually, I'd say Boyd's was better - he was being quickly closed down and yet he still hit it harder than Ballack managed.
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Germany to beat Portugal - nonsence!!! I've been amazed at the pundits lauding the Germans as a great team - that was only as a result of their win over a very poor Poland, quite frankly my cat could've beaten that lot and I'm proud of my Polish heritage!
Sure, they're always a threat, but remember they don't get better as a tournament goes, but worse - remember Italia 90 and Euro 96, they won but quite frankly only just and against teams who weren't to good!!!
But for football's sake and it's average fan, I hope Portugal win, as an attacking force they are fantastic, the same goes to Holland, Spain and Croatia!
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Sorry, that should be Kalinic is 20 and with more time than I had thoiught...he made possibly a half hour sub appearance vs Poland too.
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Netherlands v Russia will be interesting. Hiddink's boys are in form and he's got them playing like the Dutch teams of '74 and '78. On the other hand, this is van Basten's chance to show the Dutch fans that anything Guus can do, Marco can do better! And if you can turn 23 self-centered Dutch footballers into a National Team, than you surely are the greatest. Btw, Portugal to beat Germany, Turkey to beat Croatia and Italy to beat Spain.
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Portugal over Germany (just because)
Spain over Italy (Italy has two key players out)
Holland over Russia (need i explain)
Croatia over Turkey (just because)
The Italians will not be able to handle The Spanish Armada of Villa and Torres!!
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Quarters:
I think unfortunately, Portugal will beat Germany because Germany have been poor
Croatia will get a comfortable win against Turkey despite Turkey's great comeback in the last round
Russia were good against Sweden, but will lose to Holland who have been great so far
Spain will narrowly come through against Italy despite the Italians improving on their current form
Semis:
Croatia will deservedly beat Portugal
Holland's good form will come to an end against Spain
Final:
A close final will be won in 90 minutes by Spain against Croatia
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Gavin, despite my criticism in the earlier post I think you're one of the best pundits around. You'll be a real loss to the BBC, good luck with the new endeavour. I do hope you've given Garth Crooks a hard time about his prediction of Poland as a strong dark horse - they were abysmal!
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Re Post #39.
He copied!!! Not only is he a winner, good looking, German he copies his free kicks of a Scot!!!
It shouldn't be allowed!
As for the results I think that GP has it right, well best guess.
Good luck in Canada btw.
Ginger.
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Portugal v Germany - Agree with what many people are saying about the Germans being overrated by the UK media and fans. There team has been distinctly average in this tournament whereas Portugal have played some good stuff (in their first two games). Will be close because the Germans arent a walk over but see Portuagal winnning 2-1.
Croatia v Turkey - I think this will be the most one sided quaterfinal. Croatia are too organised and composed to give away the game like the Czechs and are effective going forward. Croatia to win 2-0
Netherlands v Russia - This will be much closer than people expect, in fact im sniffing an upset. So often the sides that play well in the group stages fade in the knockouts. I going for a wide open goalfest as both sides look to break forward in numbers. Russia to win a classic 3-2 aet.
Italy v Spain - Tight and tense but without Pirlo and Gattuso, Spain just have a little more quality in the middle. Toni to finally score but Spain to win 2-1.
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I knew you'd go with Croatia and Holland, Gav, but Germany and Spain I'm a little less certain about. I'd be cheering for both but they might not be able to contend with their opponents like you say. Portugal are a fantastic side and will trouble the Germans. Italy are ultr-defensive and could stop the Spaniards from scoring.
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My Picks are as follows
Semi Finals
Portugal
Croatia
Netherlands
Italy
Deco will be the Key for Portugal and Spain will Lose to Italy as They have never done well on Knock outs.
Portugal Vs Netherlands will be a Dream Finals and i think both Teams deserve it.
Netherlands will Lift the Titile
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I've just done my score predictions with my mates and i've got the same teams going through to the semis. I agree with a couple of the other posts that if Portugal had a quality striker who could hold the ball up well and score goals then i'd give them the edge but they rely too heavily on individual brilliance from Ronaldo and Deco. We all know how well Germany take their opportunities and I think they'll just edge out the Portugeuse.
Croatia have shown the sort of quality they have and as long as they show that again tomorrow Turkey don't have much hope. True Turkey will be buoyed by the way they finished the match against the Czech's but Croatia can look to how they played in the rest of that game and feel confident.
Holland and Russia promises much and hopefully it will deliver plenty of attacking play and lots of chances for both teams. I agree that with the firepower the Dutch have they should outgun Russia but if anyone knows how to beat the Dutch it will be Hiddink. Come through this test and I think the tournament is Holland's to lose.
Spain in Italy i've gone for Spain but i'm not that confident. I think the weight of going this long without winning a major trophy will really test Spain and the longer the match stays 0-0 or if they go a goal down the harder it will be for them. They will need to score within the first half hour or we could see them panic a little and the Italians will be ready to pounce.
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I agree an all, except the German game. I'm a Dutchman living in Hamburg and today, as I walked on the street, I could smell fear instead of convidence. Convidence that characterises German soccer through the decades. At least as we in Holland always thought. But today nothing like that. It's not meant to be.
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I think that England's qualification failure might be seen in a different light if Croatia and Russia both make the semis.
Remember that England has the task of getting past Croatia again in the World cup qualification starting in the autumn.
My predictions:
Portugal 2- 1 Germany
Holland 2 - 0 Russia
Turkey 2 - 3 Croatia
Italy 1 - 3 Spain
SF
Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia - Portugal win on pens
Spain 2 - 2 Holland - Holland win on pens
Final
Portugal 0 - 1 Holland
G_U_F
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Sorry Gav,
you are soooo wrong.
semis will be
Portugal
Croatia
Holland
Spain
Final
Portugal
Holland
result 3-2 to Holland.
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I agree in most except on Portugal and Germany Tournament. The portuguses are gifted with a talet and added to this Scholari's magic, they can easly win over germany by a 2-1and CR-7 will be a key man for the peridcted winner.
I hope to see the Netherlands winning over the portuguse in the final.
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Post 50,
Your point on Croatia v Turkey in particular is true. Most sides have some inconsistentcies but Turkey are at another level entirely.
For example, in qualifying they won 4-1 in Athens, excellent, look dark horses. They then proceeded to draw in Malta, Moldova, lose in Bosnia, Greece at home and get a lucky draw vs Norway at home before winning in Norway to pretty much guarantee qualification.
This is after they won their firsat 4 qualifiers scoring 12 and conceding 1 goal. Like I say, maddeningly inconsistent!
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Portugal to win the whole thing easy. They have experience, quality and revenge for 2004 on their minds... hopefully a portuguese- dutch final but the simple fact is desire will carry ronaldo et al through this time.
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Gavin,
I've just seen and listened you on BBC World and enjoyed your contribution to the programme, which is excellent. I should like to take this opportunity to wish you all the best in your new ministerial career. Regards.
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PNE4topflight,
Yes, that's why they dropped so many points in qualifying was it?
Lost in Poland
Drew at home to Poland
Drew home and away with Serbia
Drew home and away with Finland
Drew in Armenia
Hardly the form of European Champions elect, is it?
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Got it spot on in my eyes.
Portugal v's Germany - I think this will be the tightest of the four games, Portguals quality will shine but as everyone knows the Germans are efficient and get the job done when it needs to be so I think they will edge this possibly a penalty shoot-out though.
Crotia v's Turkey - Crotia to win by 3-1
Holland v's Russia - At the start of the tournament i tipped Russia as my each-way bet but since watching them in their first game and being hammered by Spain, my opinion changed although they where impressive with Arshavin back against Sweden and they have a player who knows how to score in Pavlyechenko. All of this said though i think holland will have to much fire power for them with Robben and Van Persie.
Italy v's Spain - This will show if Spain really do have the credentials to win Euro 2008. I think they will overcome the Italians by 3-1 only because Italy are without two key midfielders and obviously the absence of Cannavaro is hurting the Italians a lot.
And after all of that is done i think Holland will overcome Spain and Crotia will beat the Germans (again) and as surprising as it may sound i can see Crotia winning Euro 2008!
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Not worried about the others - tipped Russia to win the competition at 25/1 so I reckon you have got that one wrong at least. Holland peaked too soon and Russia coming nicely to the boil...so Arshavin and his mates to win the Cup.
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I thought Russia were out standing against the Swedes but I think they'll struggle against a team that defends well and can counter effectively
how can ya say holland defend well, we have yet to see them under any real pressure. take the sneijder goal against italy, van bronckhorst alone ogt em out of that defensive trouble clearin off the line n then runnin up the other end of the pitch to set up the goal.
i think arshavin will slice through ooijer n the ther cb lkike butter
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I think Portugal to beat Germany.
Germany are not the side they used to be.
Portugal have class + passion.
Think semi's will be;
Portugal v Croatia
Spain v Holland
Final...Portugal V Holland, not sure who will win though...
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Ok, Portugal will beat Germany. The German team isn't as strong as the Portuguese.
Turkey will edge Croatia, maybe in extra time or on penalties. They have just as much belief as Croatia, if not more.
Netherlands will beat Russia and it will not be close. Russia played well against Sweden but the Netherlands will be too much for them.
I think Spain will beat Italy, the score 2-1, David Villa to score the winner.
For the rest of the tournament... I am going to say Turkey and Spain in the final and Spain will win by 3 or 4 goals.
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The thing about Russia in the first game was that even though they got trounced, their forward play was impressive indeed...it the post, missed what looked like a fairly simple chance just after they made it 3-1 and then immediately Spain counterattacked and made it 4-1.
To cut it short, although Spain were worthy winners, 4-1 flattered them and Russia's defensive efforts smacked of poor defence and inexperience in that game.
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Regarding the Germans,
Comments of 'the Germans know how to win these games' and the like stem from the fact that despite Germany having a poorer standard of player in their national team compared to Italy, France, Spain, Holland and England (Yes, England!), their history shows they have done extremely well.
One of the reasons for this is that the German public have very low expectations of their team, bizarrely this seems to take off the pressure and helps the team to win more. My wife, who is German, informed me that a newspaper article stated that prior to the game against Austria only 52% of Germans interviewed believed that Germany would progress to the next round. They only had to beat Austria!
Germany is the best country in the world at producing results that equate to more than the sum of their parts. That is why 'they knoe how to win these games'. What they lack in individual talent across the board, they make up for in a winning mentality, persistance and attitude. This has seen them through countless times before and I expect will see them through against Portugal tonight.
Germany have often had very poor teams and there results have reflected that; however, when they get a half decent team together they are very very difficult to beat. On paper they would never have won the world cup in 90 or got to the final in 02 or the semi in 06, or won the euros in 96, but they did. On paper Portugal look the better side, but when has that mattered?
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Hey, scally_gooner (44) and questionable1 (47).
See Post 17. It could well be just the 3 of us but I feel we're onto something, the Spanish Armada sails on course!
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I think Portugal will beat Germany. I think they have a great squad with the likes of Ronaldo and Pepe and will go through, but maybe not win the tournament.
Apart from that I have to agree with the other predictions, although I expect Italy and Spain to be really close, maybe even decided by a stroke of fortune or a controversial ref decision. Im predicting 2-1 Spain after extra time.
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My Semi-Finals would be
Germany vs Croatia
Holland vs Italy
And Final
Croatia vs Holland
CROTIA TO WIN EURO 2008!!
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I fear that the Italian's will (sadly) grind out a win against Spain, there's a momentum building with them at the moment. Hope we'll get to Honathon Pearth commentating again!
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Germany to beat Portugal - Scolari has to get through a QF not against England. Don't think he'll cope.
Croatia to beat Turkey - The turks are not actually that great and rode their luck against the Czechs. They won't be lucky twice.
Holland to beat Russia - Russia will not be able to cope with counter-attacking Dutchie fellows
Italy to beat Spain - Spain were my pre-tournament tip, but they went bye bye against Sweden and were rescued - at the death - by route one. Italy smell lucky.
Germany beat Croatia - to quote the Might Who 'Won't get fooled again!'
Italy beat Holland - er....same reason as above.
Germany v Italy - who knows?
Seriously Gav, if you do read this stuff (and the man who wasn't you assured us you did) then good luck with your new direction. I've followed your career since Priestfield Stadium and went down to Maidstone to boo your Dad (good-naturedly) many years ago. Great to see you do so well at the beeb and all the best for the future.
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Here's one I made earlier:
http://www.mattgsplace.net/sport/Football/Euro2008QF.htm
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Whilst I often find myself agreeing with Gavin Peacock, I just don't understand how he can pick Germany over Portugal!
Yes, Germany have a history of overcoming being a poor side, but Portugal have shown mental toughness getting to the Final of Euro 2004 and the Semi's of the last World Cup.
I think the only good thing about Germany in this tournament has been Michael Ballack, and that tonight you will see Portugal overrunning the Germans completely.
I do agree with Croatia, Spain and the Netherlands being the other semi-finalists though.
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couldnt have syed it better on Germany and portugal. Croatia will beat Turkey because Turkey has too many players suspended. Italy will beat Spain, not because they are a playing better but because they are a better team. i guess guys like Pirlo will be bowing out after this so what send off for such a golden generation of Italian football. the Netherlands wil beat the Russians no questions asked.
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Spain have had more firepower than Italy for the last 30 years, yet where are the stars on their shirts?
Takes more than flair to win a tournament, Spain can tear apart the mediocre teams, they've done so for years, but time after time they come unstuck against teams who their quick passing doesn't work against. I don't see what makes this side so special, they're still weak at the back, still lightweight in midfield with no quality ball winners. A very average Sweden made life difficult and they struggled badly.
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I can understand how the general outcome of a match can be predicted (win/lose), but how on earth can anyone predict what the score is going to be, who is going to score or who is going to win on penalties, or even what the score in the shootout is going to be? It´s completely absurd to try and foresee these things. I´ve seen that a lot on this board, and on others I have seen predictions on what minute each goal is going to be scored.
By the way I´m going for a Spain win over Croatia in the final, 1-1 in normal time with goals from Torres (61 mins) and Modric (90+2) and will end up 2-2 after extra time, with Modric having edging Croatia in front in 113 minutes and 51 seconds and David Villa grabbing an equaliser dead on 120, sparking on on- field melee, with Bilic and Aragonés being sent to the stands.
In the shoot-out Spain will come out on top 6-5 (not 5-4, nor 4-2, but 6-5), Krancjar (and only Krancjar) will miss, hitting the outside of the right post and Alonso (and no- one else) will score the winning penalty, although the keeper will get a finger on it it won´t be enough.
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Portugal, Croatia, Spain and Russia to go through. Yes thats right, Holland will lose.
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Portugal v Germany could go either way, and to, appears to be the best quarterfinal in the tournament. The experience the Germans posses clearly outweighs that of the Portuguese. The Portuguese though have so much speed, quickness, attack, and creativity, which at times the Germans lack. Could go either way...as bad as it sounds, it really depends who comes out and knocks one in the net first, and the reply from the opposing team.
I reckon the Turks will upset the Croatians. They've been playing so well after going behind, can they do it again? Will they need to do it again? I don't know, but i do think the Turks will go through after an upset.
Holland, Holland, Holland, appearing to be the tournament favorites, and unstoppable, but can it last? The Russians are full of young, exciting, and sharp players, but I think they may they be too young to handle all the dangers Holland possesses.
Spain v Italy isn't clear cut although others will disagree. Those boring old Italians can't attack. A couple defensive errors by the French was the only reasons they scored their goals. They've only scored off set pieces this whole tournament. The Corner vs Romania, Penalty, and unfortunate (for the French) deflected free kick. Although the Italians are the best team in the world, no? Defending world champions. Their experience and great football brains will kick in and they could quite possibly snatch a victory, especially with all the issues the Spanish have at the back. But, you can never rule the Spanish out, especially with the incredible pace, creativity, excitement, and all-around quality they posses, in the middle, and up-front especially. Can the Italians put a hold on Torres and Villa? I reckon they will for some time, but wont be able to for 90 minutes. The Spanish will at least, and the absolute bare-minimum least, will score once. Only chance i give, is the Italians is scoring, somehow, and taking it to extra-time/penalties, or somehow, scoring again, but i don't think they can do that.
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Inshallah Turkey will get through because they are a Muslim country
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Holland will win!!!
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By the way Gavin, all the best in Canada.
God bless you.
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Mark my words, Holland and Spain will go out in the quarter finals.
Both teams will implode under the pressures of their nations over expectation, and fail once again. Especially the Spanish..
I don't necessarily want it this way, but it will happen.
PS, I fancy the Russians to go to the final
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Greetings from USA. Born and raised in England, I came to States on soccer scholarship back in 84 and still here, married with 3 children. I got saved in 1983 and read the book "More Than A Game". It inspired me and to this day I am able to mix my deep faith in Jesus Christ and the game of soccer as I coach at the college level and youth soccer in the community.
I wish you well in your future endevours and we can share Jer. 29:11.
God Bless you and your family, I will be praying for you.
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How many times has this happened... Italy somehow scrape through the group stages after very slow starts then somehow go all the way to the finals.
How many times has this happened... Spain delight us all with their wonderful flair and attacking mentality only to disappoint in the knockout stages.
History says this has an Italy win ll over it
however, I think it will be extremely close with a one goal difference between the sides
Who will win, it could be either of them but I reckon the winner has an extremely good chance of winning the tournament as well.
Germany to beat Portugal
Croatia to beat Turkey
Holland to beat Russia
Italy to beat Spain (most likely)
Germany to beat Croatia
Italy (or Spain) to beat Holland
The Finals... who knows... anything could happen
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Germany, Netherlands, Croatia and Spain to go through, I reckon. The Netherlands will then go on to win the whole thing (I can't see anyone stopping them).
#52: England may have to face Croatia in the World Cup qualifiers, but it could be worse - Scotland have to face the Dutch! Hopefully they'll be overconfident after winning Euro 2008, and Scotland will sneak a couple of results...
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#34, Marselle Desailly's English may be only marginally better than your French, but it's a whole lot better than the English of Messrs Hansen, Shearer, Lawrenson and Waddle, not to mention the ITV 'experts' - Andy 'Them Players' Townsend and whichever 'top' manager has the good fortune of sitting next to him.
In fact I would prefer to listen to MartinO'Neill or almost any of the foreign pundits that the BBC have used now or in the past rather than any of the above-mentioned....ok, I'll give you Peter Schmeichel!
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People are seeing a lot of flairs in teams like Spain and Holland or Portugal.
Of all the feelings I have for this tournament is one very sharp for the courageous Croats winning the final.
Holland is flying but some slight drift can be seen here and there within the team.
Spain, well, have too many excellent players but no truely leader, a sexy body freaking with no central brain.
Germans are as cool as a tank. It misfires sometimes, however, the problem is that you never know when it opens fire. But injuries will do them hard.
Portugal is Brazil in disguise. This tournament is in Europe, so they will come short.
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Germany
Croatia
Russia
Italy
That's my 4 semi finalists. Am I the only one who thinks the Russians will see off the Dutch? At 16/1 to win the tournament the Russians are a good bet IMO.
Germany and Italy to grind out wins against their "flair" opponents, they always do. But that is where tradition will end. The final will be Croatia against Russia.
Now how many would have predicted that on that wet Wembley evening when McClaren hid under his brolly?
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I have to agree with Ticape who wrote,
(Semi-final:
Germany
Croatia
Holland
Italy)
Germany V Portugal is 50/50
Croatia will go through, Holland will cruise through but will regret not eliminating the Italians. They should have done their math. Lose 1-0 to Romania then you got less competition, dirty but effective, they will leave to regret this one. Semi Final Holland vs Italy. Maybe they will prove me wrong. I am dutch by the way.
Final Croatia V Italy.
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I agree that Germany and the Dutch will go through. But i have a strong feeling that the Italians might just conquer the Spanish and the Turks...well, you never know. I wanna see how the teams that rested top players perform. I am strictly against making major changes especially if you have rhythm going for you.
Anyways, my semi predictions
Germany v Croatia
and
Italy v Holland
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Good article Gavin.
Safe bets you've gone with there, which I don't blame you for. However I backed Russia before a ball was kicked and I think Arshavin could really ruin the Netherlands party.
Can't wait for that game.
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Hmm, i hope you all have been watching the games, portugal vs germany should be a close call, even though the germans have not been playing well lately, the key is defense, italia vs spain, italia may prove to spain that the group of death was no fluke, i think italia will meet nederlande in the semis, renewal of friendship, but this will be the azzuris last stop, because i feel van persie and robben will be nearing full throttle, croatia and turkey is a very interesting tie, though i believe the croatians will muscle their way through, final could be between monsieur bilic and van basten, though a lot of us would love the big guns to make it...this tournament is about tinkering with tactics, taking risks and having luck on your side.
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For me, the semi-finalists will be:
Portugal
Croatia
Russia
Italy
I believe portugal have by far a better unit than Germany, boh offensively and defensively, And will play them off the park. Even with the world's best player aside their squad is packed with talent and i just cant see Germany (Especially in current form) beating them.
Croatia v Turkey for me is a no-brainer, Turkey did well to get this far but will be outclassed tomorrow night.
I think that Holland have shown they are a class act, but i believe they have peaked too soon in beating the 2006 WC finalists, having watched Russia nonchalantly brush Sweeden aside last night, i think they have what it takes to cause an upset.
For me, the Spain vs Italy clash is the hardest one to call, but im going with my instincts, which are screaming Italy! The Italians have an uncanny way of coming good when it matters most, and i dont believe the Spanish have the mentality to progress to the "business end" of this tournament. I backed Italy at 20/1 after the Romania game, and its not looking like such a stupid bet now! Theyve got what it takes to win major tournaments: Fact.
Prediction:
Portugal vs Croatia
Russia vs Italy
Final: Croatia vs Italy
Champions: ITALY
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Would be great to hear everyone who wrote off the Germans eat their words.
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Well that proved me wrong!! my other predictions stand though
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Gavin
Something that would be of more interest would be which teams you chose to make the semis before the tournament even started.
Looking at the quarter-finals and choosing a winner from each game isn't very interesting.
Which teams did you choose before the whole thing started?
I chose Germany, Portugal, Spain and Italy.
One of my semis happened today due to the Germans messing up against Croatia. And the other is happening on Sunday, also in the quarter-finals.
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I chose a Germany v Spain final before the tournament and I'm sticking with that.
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It is going to be a Croatia-Italy final.
It is!
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#95
I'm pretty sure Gav thought the Germans would do well before the tournament started but I'll try to find out. Let's give him credit for going with Germany to beat Portugal, though. There are plenty on here who thought he was wrong. So far, he's 1/1. Let's see how he gets on with the rest of his picks.
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Everybody who wrote the Germans off were proved spectacularly wrong then. The idea that Germany are a 'dull and efficient' team are unfair i feel, as although they were pretty poor during the group stages, people's opinions seem to be based upon the German teams of the 1990's. When Klinsmann took over as manager he changed the German focus from their more traditional tactics to a more attacking game, which was shown at the last world cup, while Joachim Low has said that Germany should never return to the tactics of old in which they would grind out 1-0 results. Although the Germans still looked a bit shaky at the back last night and portugal were the better side for parts of the game, i think Germany showed enough class to go on and win the tournament.
On the ties to come, i can't see past Croatia in tonights game, they showed enough strength and class in the group stages to suggest that they can easily overcome a Turkish side who appear to only be able to perform well in the second half when behind. The Dutch should also overcome Russia, as they have by far looked the best team in the tournament so far, and although the Russians have shown some flair and class in attack, the gaping holes left in their defence during the group stage games will be punished by arguably the best counter attacking team in the tournament, and if Russia are not careful or if Holland are at their best, there could be a possibility of an embarrasing scoreline.
In the Final tie i'm going for Italy, as although Spain looked superb against Russia, that was against a side who are defencively vulnerable due to the great chasms that are left at the back when they are in attack. Against a more disciplined team like Sweden, Spain didn't look much better than ordinary, so against a disciplined approach from Italy i think that they may struggle, while Italy themselves i feel have been unfairly criticised during this tournament. Although beaten 3-0 by Holland and drawing with Romania, had a number of decisions not gone against Italy, such as Van Nistelrooy's opening goal and Toni's legitimate goal being wrongly ruled offside, they would have qualified comfortably, so to qualify in the end under so much pressure will have Italy growing in confidence. It is this confidence and their disciplined approach that i feel will see them through.
Semi Finals:
Germany v Croatia
Holland v Italy
Final:
Germany v Italy
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*eats words* I still don't know where that German performance came from though!
Bottom line is, one of the classiest teams in the tournament just got KO'd.
Germany looked good vs Poland, got out classed by Croatia, didn't look all that vs Austria...
...and then they pull this off! No wonder we're all looking like mugs, they were no prior hints that this German team had that sort of performance in them!
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What can I say, good minds think alike and the germans banked me 140 big ones with there 3-2 win at 28/1.
Another fiver on croatia tonight 3-1, more money in the bank.
As for the other two games, this won't come as a surprise.. and don't worry I won't be eating my words, but Holland with a 4-0 trashing and Spain enjoying a training ground exercise with a 3-1 trump over the poor Italians.
Its Spains tournament, although they'll be pushed by the dutch in the semis, you'll probably see spain getting the winner in extra time 3-2, as for Germany they'll have a scrappy afair with croatia probably a 1-0 victory... its not going to be an entertaining final with the boring germans, I can see Spain enjoying themselves although they might go behind by a goal, I can see them winning 3-1!
Make my words people, this will be the statement referred back to when the tournament is finished.
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I think Croatia will win 2-0 tonight. Turkey have shown good character and are capable of playing a good passing game but I feel they've rode all the luck they're going to get in this tournament.
I fancy Hiddink to get the better of his home country and take the Russians through 2-1. I agree that no-one can stop the Dutch from scoring but if Arshavin is on form, I don't think Holland will have an answer and their defence hasn't come under any pressure yet. It will against Russia and I don't think they can cope.
With those risky predictions out of the way, I think Italy and Spain will restore some good old-fashioned predictability to proceedings with a 1-0 win to Italy. Luca Toni will finally score.
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I don't think the outcome of Portugal and Germany was going to surprise anyone as the germans are one of the most consistent teams in world football and have always known how to do it when it really matters. Even tho Croatia beat them in the group stages I think there a pretty good bet for the final. Croatia to beat Turkey, I can't see Russia beating Holland but I think your wrong about Spain.
Obviously as an Italian thats no surprise but if you look at it objectivly, Spain were great in the first game (agaisnt possibly the weakest team in the tournament) then struggled when they met Sweden and Russia. Albeit they deserve credit for winning those games but they haven't played particually well since Greece and have showed a fair few weaknesses. Even if they were to get over this complex of imploading when they meet a good team theres still no gaurentee they could beat the Italians. Yes Pirlo and Gattuso are suspended which I thinks a big blow but Aqualiani can fill the creative role as he does for Roma while Ambrosini is in the same mould as Gattuso and is actually a better football player.
While theres no doubt Spain has started this tournament better than Italy thats now in the past and it all goes on one game (just look at Portugal last night). Spain have failed for 44 years in these stages while Italy have consistenly been up there a lot more often than not. Dispite jelous comments sugesting this is down to luck and cheating, its actually because they have class, strengh, experience and the know how to win these crucial games. Many of these players won the world cup 2 years ago and could be playing there last ever game for Italy, never mind even in a tournament. I think you'd be a brave man to bet against them giving it one last hurrah and beating Spain.
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every one is already looking at the semi finals , butt we ( holland ) first have to beat the russians first , it wont be easy , with a master coach behind their squad.
Guus Hiddink is one of the best dutch football manager ever , that's how the most people think about him in Holland and they have a lot of respect for him.
he know all the ins and outs of dutch football and tactics.
but i still think that Holland will win .
because we have some better individuals ( players ).
we will probally meet the Italians again in the semi finals....
Final will be : Germany vs Holland/Italy , no doubt about that.
with knock out matches those Italians are very good. i hope we wont regret that we didn't let romania win. but what ever ....
we did our job , we aren't afraid of any one , but we know what the italians will do ,
maby some of you can remember euro 2000 ???? semi final Holland-Italy 0-0 , Italy won with penalties , while the dutch were playing better and beautiful offensive football , and they were standing with 11 players on their own half of the pitch ( coward football ) , so i don't like the fact , that we will maby meet them again in the semi finals , I'd rather want to see Holland-Spain , that would be great.
cheers mates.
oh yeah , and for the italians ( IF IT AIN'T DUTCH IT AIN'T MUCH) ;)
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Dutch_Coffeeshop
If you remember that match in 2000, you would know Italy had a player sent off very early therefore had no choice but to defend. You were given 2 penaties in normal time and couldn't score and then lost the shootout by only scoring one because your nerve went. The only cowards that day were Dutch, and if you had watched the whole finals you would know Italy played great attacking football throughout. Maybe you should watch it again and see what really happened, instead of your fanasty view which is highly innacurate.
Forza Azzurri!
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I dont know Gav,
I'm thinking Germany will beat Portugal 3-2, Croatia and Turkey is a tough one to call but i reckon penalties will decide it...Im gonna go for Turkey. I can see an upset on the cards in the Russia game. I will say Russia after extra time. And for the Spain-Italy game is think the two sides will cancel eachother out. It will go to penalties....Spain to win. Iker to be the hero....But who am i to know
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