The Wee Mo
We now have a clearer picture of our new three-party architecture as we head into the last 10 days of the Campaign of 2010.
The Tories are in the lead, but not by enough to give them an overall majority. The Lib Dem bubble has not burst -- they are now regularly second in the polls -- but the momentum has gone, at least for now. And Labour is now regularly third, a startling phenomenon which for some reason is the most under-reported and under-analysed feature of the campaign.
I should add that the share of the vote is evenly enough divided for the election still to be wide open. But it is generally agreed that an overall Labour victory is now the least likely outcome -- and if the Tory vote continues to strengthen Labour is unlikely to be the largest party in the new Commons either.
David Cameron was the main beneficiary of the second leaders' debate. True, Nick Clegg held his own and came away from Bristol having demonstrated he was no one-debate wonder. But Mr Cameron got the momentum. Not, to be sure, what American presidential candidates call The Big Mo, when they become front-runners and pull away from the rest of the pack. More accurate to call it The Wee Mo: enough to make Mr Cameron the front-runner but not yet enough to give him an overall majority.
One of the key dynamics during the rest of the campaign will be whether or not the Tories can add a couple more percentage points to their share of the vote to give them outright victory. It's certainly possible -- much will hang on the final debate on Thursday -- but as things stand at the moment it's reasonable to conclude that the most likely outcome is Tories as largest party without an overall majority.
My guess is that, in these circumstances, Mr Cameron would attempt to form a minority administration rather than do a deal with the Lib Dems. Mr Clegg would be under huge pressure from his generally leftish rank-and-file not to sup with the Tories and would have to insist on radical electoral reform (a much purer form of PR than the AV system Labour is offering) if he was to be allowed to help them in any way. Mr Cameron would be under immense pressure from his anti-PR rank-and-file to do no such thing. His troops would be angry that he failed to win the election outright and would be in no mind to let him agree to a reform that would mean the end of majority Tory governments.
Just how a minority Cameron government would perform -- or last -- is anybody's guess. Harold Wilson formed a minority Labour government in February 1974, proceeded to give the unions all they wanted, from huge pay rises to the TUC-drafted Employment Protection Act, then called another election eight months later -- only to scrape home by a couple of seats. In the current economic climate it's not clear what goodies Mr Cameron could shower on voters before calling a second election; indeed, everything he needs to do to our indebted economy would likely make his administration pretty unpopular, PDQ.
The Labour priority in what remains of the campaign is not to come third, which would be even worse than Michael Foot managed in 1983 (and from which it took Labour 18 years to recover). Looking at the current state of the Labour campaign, it is not clear to me that Labour election strategists know how to do this. Yesterday's excruciating appearance of an Elvis impersonator at a Gordon Brown event does not suggest to me that this is a campaign which will come storming back from the doldrums in the last 10 days -- but then I never was a fan of Elvis.
Labour has been in denial since the Lib Dem surge: it has ignored its demotion to third place by consoling itself with the thought that it could still end up largest party in terms of seats, even with a low share of the vote. Now that looks less likely (though by no means impossible) it is dawning on Labour minds that this election could be what Andrew Rawnsley called on This Week an "existential threat" to the party's very existence.
Click here to see Andrew Rawnsley's film for This Week (April 22)
The recriminations in the Labour camp are already surfacing but so far have remained behind closed doors. Relations between Peter Mandleson and David Milliband, on the one side, and Ed Balls and Harriet Harman on the other are already reported to be fraught. If Labour continues to bring up the rear end in the run up to May 6th I suspect some of these tensions will break out into the public domain.
The Tory campaign is not without its tensions either -- after all its strategists have managed to throw away a 10-point lead -- but the prospect of coming first (with or without an overall majority) will concentrate Tory minds and keep their disagreements bottled up (at least til after May 6th).
Finally, can Mr Clegg summon up the energy and intellect to come away from the third debate with a renewed bounce? Or is this as good as it gets for the Lib Dems -- a historic performance but not quite as transformative of our politics as it looked 12 hours after the Manchester debate?
The answer to that will almost certainly determine the outcome a week on Thursday. Stay tuned!
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~31~RS~)
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The election is now Cameron's to lose.
Labour lost it last year because the Parliamentary Party failed to dump Brown and start all over again. They now stand exposed as not much more than a sycophantic bunch of stooges supporting the most diastrous government since Lord North lost the American colonies.
Clegg has performed the Liberal surge which is now expected in every election. His party should do well but at Labour's expense.
The only question now is how many floaters can the Tory's recruit. I suspect more than are saying as once people get into the polling booth they are going to play safe.
Despite all this any government elected will have to deal with the defecit and there is only one way to resolve that problem.
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I rather like the idea of a minority Cameron Government. We might actually see some bridge-building in the Commons and some sensible laws passed, because our Politicians negotiate and compromise rather than dictate...
If we had an electoral system that forced negotiate and compromise all the time, we wouldn't be in the mess that we're currently in.
First Past The Post has not served us well...
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Clegg didn't seem very convincing on today's Andrew Marr show, but it is to be hoped that voters will base their decisions on careful scrutiny of policies rather than how the party leaders look and perform. The situation is still potentially volatile, as policies are gradually probed, questioned, and clarified (or not, as the case may be).
There are still lots of unknowns, but the one thing that is known with absolute certainty is what has happened over the last thirteen years.
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Before voters get carried away with the illusion that Vince Cable is something of a economic guru or a man of substance they should view Andrew Neil's interview with him on "Straight Talk" ( see Andrew Neil's blog of 7th April for access to the video) and then view Jon Sopel's interview on "The Campaign Show" of 23 April.
Both should be required viewing for those carried away with "Cleggmania" or proposing Vince Cable as Chancellor of the Exchequer in a hung department.
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Has anyone seen a live candidate from any party.
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I really like the Lib Dems (their policies, their people) and I'm glad they're breaking through. Hope they convert into 75+ seats. Clegg is right too, to rule out supporting Labour if Labour come third in the popular vote, but it gives me a problem. I live in a London three way marginal and I was going to vote Lib Dem, but I do NOT want David Cameron at number 10. Only way to prevent this is for the Labour vote to recover. So I'm going home; I'm going home to Labour.
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Andrew
Your title "Wee Mo" encapsulates the small Cameron surge, but surely the "Big Mo" is the extraordinary influence that the TV Debates are having on the Election result. Whoever decided that the debates take place on a Thursday evening could not have envisaged the extent to which the dead wood press would be left floundering in the wake of the TV companies and the internet blogs.
The main analysis in the papers on the Friday is scant as most papers go to press by 11pm. So by Sunday afternoon the debate has been analysed to death in a short space of time, and already the press are awaiting next Thursday's debate. It is far cry from the 24 hours news cycle, that New Labour perfected under Blair/Mandelson especially when campaigning. It is no coincidence that the Conservatives and Lib Dems have embraced the internet and blogging more successfully than Labour's reliance on Twitter and as a result they get their story out quicker.
The Tory supporting websites are a mixed bag of loyalists and mavericks. By and large they are an interesting read, but they are also not afraid to really put the boot into the Tory leadership if they think it is merited. When the likes of Charlie Whelan or Ali Campbell trot out the party line in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, they cease to be credible and the public feel that someone is taking the "michael out of them".
Brown meanwhile really is in his own little world - I would not be surprised if John Major's soapbox made a reappearance. A lot of what he does is what he has always done: visits a school, hospital etc whilst the other two are reinforcing the points from the last debate. The Elvis impersonator gig quite frankly defies belief.
If someone had told you, Andrew, that the election would be decided over 270 minutes of television programs would you have believed them? Thought not, but it is happening....
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To Sagamix
Do watch the videos of the interviews I recommended in 4 above. Then you will be much happier going back to Labour rather than supporting the LibDems. The interview with Andrew Neil will amaze you, as it did me, regarding how much Vince Cable has flip flopped. He may have shown some fancy footwork on the dance floor but against Andrew Neil's informed questioning he showed he has yet to learn how to duck and weave.
Alistair Darling is a man of much more substance than Vince Cable and would have been even better if he could have shaken off the dead hand of Gordon Brown.
Gordon Brown told everyone to take a long hard look at the Tories. Do so - concentrate on their policies, forget your dislike for David Cameron, and you might make an even better decision.
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I have just had a very interesting encounter.
Phyllis Starkey, the Labour MP for Milton Keynes South has knocked at my door with one of her helpers.
The helper asked "Can we count on your vote?" I explained that I think we need a hung parliament - we need to break the system to rebuild it better, if you will - and that I would be probably voting Liberal Democrat.
Phyllis Starkey then appeared and AGREED that a Hung Parliament is probably the best idea. She also AGREED that PR would be better than the system proposed by Brown but that backing Brown would be a good start.
She then said that to get a hung parliament I must vote labour in MK South in order to stop the Tory candidate getting in.
Her answers were very prompt and well rehearsed, leading me to suspect that an instruction has come down from the Labour campaign to not fight against a Hung parliament, but to agree and persuade people that voting labour will get them the hung parliament they want.
Either that, or there is a bank bench rebellion going on with MPs who think they have already lost this and are therefore hanging their hat with the Liberals and the reform agenda.
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Andrew
The end of Labour. We dare to dream that this authoritarian bunch of baggage will be consigned to the dustbin of history.
And not a day to soon as far as I am concerned. Good riddance from an ex core Labour voter.
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Andrew,
in his list of achievements it is amazing how little Brown makes of being the paymaster for a government which overthrew the Iraqi President. That he now supports a Quizling Karzai government in Afghanistan, and that all the votes in the Iraqi government are to recounted. Can we expect Brown to follow the examples of the countries where we were either occupying, or are occupying.
There is absolutely no way that Brown can stay as PM if as expected he might have the most number of seats, and the least number of votes in the contest between conservatives and labour.
The problem will be that who will take over, and having taken over will the individual then call for a general election to obtain the mandate to run as PM. They want us to think of them as presidents, so they have to stand again. Or will it be a let them eat cake moment.
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notakenin,
"forget your dislike for David Cameron"
Well it's odd - I prefer Labour to its leader (Brown) but it's the opposite with the Tories. I don't rate Cameron (this is true) but I like him well enough, and I prefer him to the party he leads.
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#9 Joss
It's a hint of what's going on behind the scenes - political use of fear and manipulation.
A General Election is for the people to elect a government by voting for the person they would most like to represent them in their locality. Their choice might be based on local considerations, or they might be more influenced by national matters. It's their decision.
Tactical voting in the hope of preventing a particular candidate being elected debases the concept of free and fair democratic election. The politicians or their acolytes who advocate these practices are as guilty as those who manipulated the expenses system.
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Good Evening Andrew,
just to say that I hope none of the political parties say very much more about climate change. Others can look for themselves as to what the Senate have just done to the Kerry Bill, gone. Immigration and immigration control seems to be uppermost in America at the moment, now let us here about Global Migration, rather than Global Climate chnge, even though one is all probability mixed with the other. People migrate, just like birds do, to access what they need most of all, pure clean drinking water.
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sagamix,
Fair enough go with your heart. You will feel better on May 6th but, my God, you could have one hell of an hangover parliament on May 7th!
However, Health & Safety rules dictate that you must watch the videos I mentioned in my post #4 before you do anything that could mean Vince Cable becoming Chancellor in a hung parliament.
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Andrew,
we can really wind up the politicians in the event of a two party coalition government, whichever one. Consider if you are currently a government minister, then Clegg says that unless you give my man the job, then I won't take part in the coalition. He seems to be a bit like the weakling boy who takes the ball home in a tiff when he isn't picked to be in the big boys team, but ends up being told that he must play with the girlies.
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notakenin,
"Fair enough go with your heart"
And my head. And pretty much all other body parts.
But yes, I will. I'll take a look. I promise.
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Andrew,
I have said before about Goldman Sachs and the connections to our government. Then I read this:
Goldman robustly denies the charges as being wrong "in both fact and law" and says that Abacus was structured in a wholly transparent manner and within the rules.
Now where before have we heard about stuff being within the rules. Can we please have a list of all these rules, as for transparency, well excuse me whilst I hold my breath. By the way the charges relate to allegations of fraud, just to set the record staright. I wonder what Brown and his advisers really think of the bankers now. You cannot think anything of a bank, that is an institution, you can only think of the people who work for an institution, the bankers.
As for the liberal proposal to break-up the banks, into the clearing side, and the investment side. So who will manage the pension fund assets, which are quite substantial, in fact very substantial. I would hardly call the investment managers who mange the assets of the pensions as being employed by casino banks. So, what do the liberals actually mean. What parts will belong where, these questions need to be asked.
As for the proposals with reagrd to tax allowances for the lower paid which will cost about £17 billion, you quite rightly poointed out that only £2 billion at most will go to the poor people. There has to be a better way of working this out so that it is benefits only the poorest, and not anybody else.
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Andrew,
more fantastic news from the front, yet another day without a soldier being killed in Afghanistan. Doesn't it just show what can be achieved when there is an election. The last soldier killed was on the 7th April, the day after the election was eventually called. maybe if Brown had called the election when he should have done then we would not have had to suffer all the deaths which we have. This is what I have heard said around and about although I would never think such things, moi think these awful thoughts, surely not.
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Though fading, the Lib Dem surge may still force some form of electoral reform on David Cameron if he needs their tacid support to govern.
This might not be such a bad thing for the Conservatives as long as he only concedes PR accompanied with a change to ensure English MPs sit as a National Parliament, the levelling of public expenditure across the land and devolution of tax raising powers.
It seems that Scottish and Welsh voters favour much higher public spending than the English - at least under this arrangement they would be free to vote and pay for it themselves and would be equally free to suffer or benefit from the consequences.
With English MPs sitting as an English "Grand Committee" under any form of PR arrangement, the Conservatives would usually be involved in the Government of England.
Given the overwhelming majority of the population are English voters, the Conservatives may feel that this would shift the overall balance of power away from "Westminster" towards English MPs sitting as an English Grand Committee.
It seems unlikely under this arrangement that Labour would ever be able to govern the UK effectively as they would almost always be a distant second or even third place in England.
PR might therefore be a price worth paying to take power on 6th May.
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Catch 22 : Call me a cynic but could it be that Brown has ordered our troops to remain in barracks during the campaign to avoid the bad publicity of further fatalities ?
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As ever Andrew Neil's commentary remains resolutely pro-conservative. He talks about the optimistic scenario for the Conservative (i.e. continuing to improve their share and perhaps even getting a majority) while giving the most dire interpretation of Labour prospects. He overplays an Elvis impersonator which was a bit of light hearted fun, he ignores the fact that the third debate is on the economy which is where labour has got the strongest message to tell and most importantly the more undecided people there are closer to polling, the more they are likely to stick with the status quo. A natural risk averse reaction. Cameron fears undecided voters more than Gordon.
Finally after having watched the Chancellor's debate it only confirms my view that your sympathes are with the Conservatives. You went after Vince Cable like a dog after a bone (or just like the Tory press) pointing out in detail his exact stance and comments on various economic policies successfully implemented by the Labour govt. But you seemed to have overlooked the disastrous record of George Osborne!
1) He opposed the bank bail out. This would have destroyed our banking system and massive pool of savings. We would have had a UK specific Lehman event.
2) Then he refused the fiscal stimulus which every single G20 nation agreed with!
In short George Osborne has made two of the biggest policy mistakes of the 20th Century but thankfully in opposition (both these mistakes were key in creating the Great Depression in the 1930s).
Now George Osborne's platform for being elected is please let me get a hatrick and make the third biggest policy mistake of the 20th Century!
3) That is withdrawing the fiscal stimulus too early! This is what they did in the 1930 and kept the US economy rudderless until the late 30s. More importantly Japan made this mistake in the mid 1990s when their debt to GDP ratio was only 50%. As a result their economy has stagnated fo 20 years in a spiral of lower house prices, wages and deflation.
Once you go into a double dip it is more difficult to come out of it because getting businesses to believe in a sustainable recovery becomes more difficult and so they do not invest in Capital equipment etc! As a result Japan's debt to GDP ratio is now around 200%. In short George Osborne's policies would have done more damage to the economy over the last three years than all of Robert Mugabe's, over the last 30yrs. Osborne would have destroyed our banking system and hence our currency in a couple of weeks. So why do we want to elect someone so incompetent (truly off the scale, because let's not forget the reverse fuel duty escalator that would have hiked petrol prices as we entered the most severe recession in living memory) at such a key moment in our history. So why did you not expose Osborne's incompetence? I smell the Odor of Stephanomics at work here. She has bent over backwards to make Osborne's policies ‘highly credible' (at an BoE IR press conference she referred to them as such!). If you want a shred of credibility as an intelligent independent journalist I suggest you rectify this matter at the earliest possible opportunity.
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#21
I have said for some time that they have been confined to barracks. Brown would probably say because they are mentoring the Afghan soldiers and police. This in the country which we have occupied since 2001, must be a change of tactics.
But yes, I am cynical and there had better not be a soldier killed between now an election day with Brown on our screens talking about serving their country, brave and courageous, and keeping terror off the streets of our country.
One single death, and I will be very, very angry, and as for the reporters who have been unembedded, where are the reports from Afghanistan, the forgotten war, or occupation that is what this has become.
As for the BNP, they do have a very good response when being accused of racism. It is Brown who identifies the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan as the source of the terror attacks, and kills these people in large numbers, not the BNP. Please note that as far as I am aware Adolf Hitker actually killed nobody, others followed his orders. In the meantime the real source of the problem is Saudi arabia, where bin laden comes from, and where a very large percentage of the attackers in respect of 9/11 also came from.
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Andrew,
call me an old cynic but how much public money has been given to Corus to retrain the workers, surely not just so that the poor workers are kept off the unemployment figures until after the election, by which time they will have been retrained to stack shelves in supermarkets, or security guards at the football club which is sponsored by the Northern Rock nationalised bank.
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I seem to recall that we overthrew the Taliban government about 10 years ago and quite what we're still doing out there is hard to fathom. Did Russia hang about in Georgia after their invasion ?
It may appeal to Gordon to be able re-structure another country into his vision of social perfection but you can't expect a different culture to tolerate foreign imposition of Western values. Russia made its point and left Georgia to work out the implications.
Trying to use the military as a tool of international social engineering is a misuse of the country's armed forces and exposing them to unnecessary casualties. I bet the President of Iran has his plane ready and waiting for when the West pulls out.
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Does the mo refer to MO-notous?
And why only three pictures? Even if UKIP only won the one seat it would still have a major bearing on the new parliament.
Dumping Bercow would allow Cameron to avoid voting out the old speaker. It wouls also mean that such delights as sorting out who was the official opposition would have to wait until a new speaker had been elected. And with every MP counting in a hung/narrow majority parliament, who would want to give up a vote?
And with labour facing their lates worst-ever-vote-in-Scotland why are they even being included as a major party?
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Wait a sec. It is not automatic that parliament will allow the Conservatives to just form a minority government. If their throne speech is voted down, Cameron would probably roll the dice and ask the queen for another election immediately. The queen would probably not take that advice if a Lib-Lab pact had been struck and they had let it be known that they could form a government (there are precedents for this in Commonwealth countries with FPTP systems).
But Andrew Neil is a clever guy and knows that a parliament of 2/3 Lib Dems and Labour members would not approve a Conservative throne speech. Could it be he's just floating a balloon for the party he supports in the hope that if he does so it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy?
If the scenario above did obtain, and if Labour had come third in the popular vote it is very likely that they would not have a leader. Would this make Clegg the most likely person to be asked to form a government?
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Is it a coincidence that if we have a hung parliament that will be 46yrs since the last, the time between the previous 2 1929-1974 being 45yrs? I think not, I think it's the maths of the system, part of the self checking that prevents the gov from becoming over-powerful.
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You can use the words of 'Father Christmas do not touch me' to calculate the outcome of the election now. It really isn't so uncertain.
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Nick Clegg has stabbed himself in the back. This is previously unheard of for a LibDem leader. He won't enter into a coalition if his own party comes third, which is very likely. He won't entertain a coalition gov't If the no.1 party isn't involved. He won't, for example, support a coalition between 2nd and 3rd. But we have the constituency system, and we can vote to keep somebody out, and for a hung parliament made up of the smaller parties. NClegg is saying if that's the will of the people he's not going along with it. His reforms are a bit early.
I wonder if the LD's will have to get a new leader before the election.
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27 NClegg more or less counted himself out of such things today.
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You say we have a clearer picture but the polls really are all over the place and incomparable. The only similarity is people going to LD for a hung Parliament (and perhaps there are signs of an LD drop when it looks like LD could out-vote Labour) and leaving LD to go to C when they (C or DC) look better - namely when they (C/DC) get KC and the days of Sunshine Band out of the cupboard. Suddenly everybody's happy. How lovely. Not the days of free love, which gives me a (new?) policy idea. Charge for love AND put a tax on it! The antidote to the tax-break for trees that photosynthesise. Of the course, it's the rest of us who pays, etc etc.
KC/DC X NC = 0
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If it's 'reasonable conclude' ..Tories most seats... 'as things stand' it's also 'reasonable' to conclude Lab most seats. Isn't it?! Because it's only reasonable. In fact, it's reasonable to conclude anything you like. But C having most seats isn't the most likely outcome. Questionable adjustments.
Certainly 'others' aren't being taken into account in conclusions.
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Labour is now regularly third, a startling phenomenon which for some reason is the most under-reported and under-analysed feature of the campaign.
Yes, odd. Who knows; maybe there are reasons?
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When our most illustrious political strategists, such as Lord Mandelson, don't comprehend that scare startegies over voting Lib Dem and allowing the opposition in no longer work, I am full of conceit.
Our two major parties offer a miserable choice, or none at all on major issues, and they had to manufactire the six billion 'job tax' issue to enable us to tell the difference between them and take away attention from the lack of choice they offer.
I have always voted Tory but will vote UKIp this time over Europe, AGW and immigration, and welcome the Lib Dems forcing PR on whoever they support in office. The two party monopoly has been anti-democratic and has enabled both major parties to merge into an amorphous consensus that bows to no one but their own self-interest.
Under the current system it is too easy for politicians and their parties to ignore the elctorate and to be influenced by powerful lobbies, like the banks. I wish the Lib Dems well and hope they will stick to their guns on PR.
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Andrew,
let's get back a little policy into the argument. I would limit all, I mean all pensions to a maximum of £50,000, any pension above that sum would be taxed at 100%. The notion that pensions are meant to be at a level above that is obscene. Just as nobody deserves to earn more than 5 times the pay of the lowest paid person in that organisation is also totally unacceptable.
The 50p tax rate must be brought in for anybody earning more than £100,000, but income tax and national insurance must be merged. The whole idea of Capital Gains Tax is past its sell by date, all gains, without any allowances, must be subject to income tax, with no offsetting of losses against gains.
As for the pension funds, they must not be allowed to do any stock lending, which facilitates short selling. There must be no contracts for difference which encourages speculation. But the banks must not be split between the high street banks, and the investment banks. Many investment banks manage the assets of the pension funds, and unbelievingly they actually do a good job.
With regard to the tax credit system then there really must be proper means testing, harsh but it has to be fair.
Now with regard to proportional representation, then the only way it can work is for everybody to be forced to vote, with the option on the ballot of NOTA, None Of The Above, but everybody in the country must register, without fail. The census must be strictly enforced, if it is not then everybody will have the right to participate in the biggest mass case of civil disobedience that this country has ever seen.
This last one may well cause a problem because actually I quite agree with the poll tax, where everybody in the community pays for all public services, whether they are a property owner or not. Finally, there must be a national identity card system.
As for VAT, 20%, no alternative.
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Good morning each & Andrew.
It is hard to believe, but so very true, that there are more matches scheduled for May 6th than this 'old-firm' game.
On the up-side; this election is turning out to be the people's choice I have long wished for. The main partys do little other than cancel each other out!
The simple question that is not being addressed is...
"What is in it for we--the--people?"
The greater part of the political 'conversation', is taking part beween neighbours and may not include any of the big-three partys.
The arguement over seats-v-votes shall be further complicated by, of all things, the will of the electorate.
"Some are born humble, some learn to be humble and some have it forced upon them."
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Cameron should be able to eviscerate Brown over his economic record.
£200bn borrowed before we even went in to recession
failed bank regulation
plan to take £6bn out of pay packets and business bank accounts and spend it on Government waste
the explosion of bureaucracy driven by his target-driven funding regime
the list ought to be endless, but each comment or statement from Cameron really ought to start, "over the 13 years you, Gordon, have been Chancellor or Prime Minister....."
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Andrew,
surely at last the media are picking up on an aspect of coalition governments which has been missing, namely it is the make up of the cabinet which becomes important. This is about pork barrel politics, about gerrymandering, about deals behind closed doors, you give my guy this job and I'll vote for this that ot the other. This is going to be like the 'gissa job' or one of the best jokes I ever heard in a serious programme namely when a character goes into the confessional and comes up with the punch line 'I'm desperate Dan' bit like I'm Spartacus, which I am by the way.
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And there is an alternative to higher VAT - higher growth, through lower business taxes
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#36 Catch22
Some good thinking there.
I too see some form of ID card as essential to bringing Democracy back to the people. It should NOT be a law and order issue. Just a way to assure the voter that their vote is counted and that the risk of electoral fraud is lessened.
I do not like the idea of a hike in VAT and it is the rush to growth that got us here. Better to build a sustainable economy; three days work per week for all, two day for the community and two days to enjoy the fruits of the labours of all.
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Here in Wales the Lib Dems are in the process of blotting their copybook. 'Models' being used in staged photos got up to look like real nurses and policemen. Mind you, in my neck of the woods (Cardiff South & Penarth) they have seriously anoyed the locals in the east Cardiff suburbs by planning to build a school on our playing fields rather than in the pretty spacious grounds of the old school. That particular field (the one they want to build on) has been used by sports clubs for the better part of a hundred years, football and rugby in the winter and British rules baseball in the summer. And these are the same Lib Dems who claim to believe in local democracy! In a local poll 93% of people who responded wanted the field (known locally as Rumney rec.) to be kept as a sports field. The more they say the more knots they tie themselves in. As for the Tories, they think Wales is like East Europe all Government money and not much enterprise and therefore high on their list for cuts. Why do I say this? Because in Cameron's Paxman interview he described NE England as eastern Europe and in terms of economic data Wales is very similar to NE England. Just you think I'm biased I don't much like the other parties either. On polling day, if I do go out at all that is, I'll be supporting the 'Save Rumney Rec' candidate. Regards, etc.
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Andrew,
I have said before that I was conceived almost to the day when the NHS came into existance, born on the 7th April 1949. I am now 61. Many of the post war bulge of women entered the nursing profession, they are now due to retire over the next few years. Therefore, all the trained nurses are now in place, to replace those who retire. That is the process which was needed. However, the age structures are that there will be no need for nurses to be recruited as they were in the past.
What I cannot understand that with the number of people who work in the NHS, the police, and teachers, that it will be a labour government which will take money out by their NHS increases due to come in next year. As for other taxpayers, wait until you get your pay slips for April, with the latest round of tax increases coming in.
As for governments in the future, will anybody please ask the question will tax allowances be increased in line with inflation. There has been no change for my tax allowances, have others not noticed. So, will there be a guarantee that all allowances in future will be increased in line with inflation. I don't like allowances, but whilst they are there they need to be properly increased.
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May 6th - April 22nd?? Are you American?
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What fool allowed banks to profit from the financial misfortune of others, even their own financial incompetence, whether intentional or not ? Banks operating under the rules of a casino with much less scruple - and what does the government do ?
It is said that one well known controversial investnment bank, and others beside, converted to become a retail bank purely to plunder and profit from the bail out money. Since when did the rules change to 'women and children first, if there's room after the bankers have been fitted in with all their luggage'.
Reference to 'banker bashing' is a sick joke when the required corrective action needs to be much more direct and punitive. Six billion pounds is an irrelevance when banks remain a tax on every citizen of the country. They have usurped the primary function of government, revenue collection, and have the gall to tell us how indispensable they are, which is another outrageous falsehood of self-promotion. Drug dealers use the same self-justification, and I make no apologies for the comparison.
If what we're doing in Afghanisan is an example of our governments attitude to democracy then perhaps we might have learned something from them, and maybe a hung parliament will provide us with a first step on a truly democratic path. Breaking the 2/3 party grip on power will be marvellous. Just imagine - Muslim parties - the BNP - English Democrats - UKIP - I welcome them all, truly representing the views of the electorate.
I hate to get too excited or optimistic, but just maybe the Mother of Democracies will become one. They very hope makes me smile. Lord Mandelson, I don't fear a hung parliament - I embrace it with all my heart. Put a new record on the turntable.
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Andrew,
The wee mo has arrived and it was the Gordon Brown assertion that the Media (and that includes you) are not being fair by not reporting policy but relying too heavily on Opinion Polls to form judgements on who and which party should be elected to govern the UK.
It is noticeable that the Labour Party's election strategy is simply to attack the Conservatives/Liberal Democrats who at least are offering change rather than the Labourite offer of more of the 'same old, same old' which we have had for 13 years and any recent policy announcements have simply been window dressing as the Labourites have had 13 years to implement these policies but only now have got around to considering implementing them?
Labour are bereft of ideas, bankrupt of morals and have simply resorted to attack as the best form of defence.
The attack on the Media continued today with reports that Gordon Brown is now alleging that the Media is waiting for an egg to be thrown at him rather than asking him questions on policy.
It all reminds me of the "Carry On Cleo" film where the Emperor, played by the late Kenneth Williams, expressed the immortal words, "Infamy, infamy, everyone has it in for me!"
Our dearest Leader (may his retirement be long and sooner rather than later!) obviously feels just like the Emperor in that comedy of inane situations .... but things are worse for Gordon Brown as the Emperor in this instance has no clothes either - having no policies or any real ideas as to how to get the UK's Private Sector going again to pay for Labour's Public Sector expansion and maintenance other than to keep spending money the UK has not got and thus increasing the UK Debt into trillions of GB pounds with eventual default or IMF intervention becoming more real as the country continues to live on borrowed finance rather than tax dividend from GNP.
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...an ad-hoc coming together of the Independents elected at this election could scupper all double dealing too.
#42 RWWCardiff
To my mind you have the right idea. What IS good for your community MUST be good for the rest of us. If you have a 'save the rec' Independent candidate I urge you to get s/he to contact the Independent Network ASAP...
http://www.independentnetwork.org.uk/
At this election each vote will count, I believe.
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Andrew,
I am watching you asking some questions on the Daily Politics relating to a 'hung' parliament.
The part which has not been covered is that let us say that Cameron runs a minority government. Now then, immediately Brown will have to resign, he must. There will then be total disarray in the labour ranks as they split and the recriminations begin. Who was a traitor who was saying vote liberal. If yoy are a labour supporter, and the conservative looks as though the conservative might win, but be challenged by the liberal, then the labour voter should vote liberal. The labour vote will collapse.
As for the liberals then even they will have problems, have they been well led by Clegg, his position is being exposed. If the conservatives don't win then will Cameron have to resign, as all the previous conservative leaders have done over the last three elections.
This is actually going to be brilliant, as for me and NOTA, then the political parties are going to be in the same situation if the result is close. Socialists will be a problem, they vote solcialist and what do they get, progressive liberals, and is that what they really want. This is all about power, who will sit in the cabinets. Who will deprive somebody from a job, this is just so brilliant, pork barrel politics, I mean scrap trident, nuclear power stations, no third runway at Heathrow, Afghanistan, a total disaster.
I so enjoyed your questioning Andrew, you are the business. And I would never be in favour of PR, look into the history of democracy in Greece, there actually is no place for a three way split. It is not a fantastic system, but first past the post is the only real solution. I mean would you share your job, apart from the very attractive women of course who work with you on the Daily Politics. I mean would you like me to sit beside you asking the questions which I think need asking, no, and I would not expect you to either.
In the meantime I wonder how Iraq is looking at this, and as for Quizling Karzai, he will be laughing all the way to the voting booth. Worse than a banana republic that what we have become, and who will scrutinise all the votes, especially if it is so close.
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Andrew,
in the deabte over the status of a hung parliament why do you think that there is such a long time gap between when the election result should be known, namely the Friday after the election, and when parliament actually gets back together. It is the longest period for, well an awful long time. I think that the experts have been reading your blogs and comments and know that we knew all along there will be a problem. They will come up with a similar solution to that in the late 20s and early thirties. A government of national unity, we will soon see who is for our country, and who puts personal ambition behind their election.
Please continue to remind people that the liberals have been around for a lot longer than labour, and that Churchill was a conservative, then a liberal, then a conservative again. And we all know what happened with his career.
Do people really want the BNP in a parliament. Do they really want the tail to wag the dog.
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The worst gaff of the 'Popegate' memo is that it has elevated the Pope's visit to a level it doesn't deserve, which is even worse considering the unpalatable revelations of what has been going on in certain parts of the Church. The government should remain aloof from religious leaders to enable it to tackle them on moral issues that don't fit in with the norms of our country. To have to welcome the Pope in a prostrate position is an insult to all those who question the views of that Church, and if the Church of England is now obliged to accept gay marriages, his views on how he'd accomodate them within the Catholic church would be interesting, to say the least.
The government appears to enjoy taking on easy targets but gets tied in a knot with those who stand up to them. I don't believe religious leaders should have a say in our goverment, and if any anti-discrimination law applies to the Church of England, then I would expect it to apply to all religions equally.
The memo was a disgrace, but if the Pope can't take an apology without wanting to impose his own demands as reported in some papers, then perhaps he should stay away, and I would apply that attitude to any other religious leaders wanting to pay us a visit.
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I find it very odd that the BBC feels quite free to report child abuse cases perpetrated by the Catholic Church, yet is strangely silent over the Hollie Greig case in South Aberdeen and the role played by local politicians belonging to the main political parties. Usually the BBC is more than happy to list all the candidate names contesting a particular constituency, but for one independent candidate it presents the BBC an enormous difficulty.
Must be a coincidence, but still very odd. Surely if the authorities wanted to cover this up, they would instigate a D Notice. Are they that incompentent? For the record a precedent exists - try Tony Blair in 2003.
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51 Excellentcatblogger
I too have been wondering why the Hollie Grieg case is devoid of all reporting.
It may be because the few who have publicly campaigned have had the nock on the door in the middle of the night or been arrested on spurious grounds.
It is a very worrying case and the stiffling of reporting or campaigning makes it more so.
You post suggests a candidate is standing to support her case? If so well done to them.
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#51
I was listening to a very distressing programme over the Dunblane murders. Then I read about Hollie Greig. And I cannot fail to notice the use of Blair over Dunblane. In the meantime I look forward to the situation with regard to the London bombings. There must be a public inquiry into the deaths resulting from the London bombings, there are too many coincidences, with the main politicains being out of London,and so soon after the annoucement of the London Olympics.
There is the stench of things going wrong in a part of our country, and the smell is getting closer, and stronger.
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As the possibility of a hung parliament becomes ever more confusing and messy it becomes even more important that such an outcome should be scrutinised in even more detail.
Although Norman Tebbit's comments may seem a little scary the possibilities in the future of the effects of PR should not be underestimated. It's always the case in 'unintended consequences' that a wrong decision made today will take years for the full effect to be felt and then it is too late to reverse.
We have a system that has served us well although isn't perfect and any attempt to experiment with something that is not tried and tested in today's dreadful economic circamstances is like dancing with the devil.
The problems caused after the 1974 elections cannot even begin to compare with today when we have multiple parties in the system all who could grow in strength depending on future events.
No-one wants to scare but someone has to be able to forecast possible future consequences of present actions that the next generation will have to inherit and live with.
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Andrew,
slowly but surely the barriers are coming down. Apparently a report into the death of Blair Peach will at last be published. Now I reminded readers of this when the issue of Mr Tomlinson arose, after his death whilst going about his business.
What should be pressed is the issue over the Bloody Sunday inquiry, an appalling situation costing millions of pounds, and so much time and effort, and no result. There must also be an inquiry into the London bombings.
I am still not at all happy about the Omah bombing, the death of Mr de Menezes, the allowing by the occupation forces of the hangings in Iraq of the former leaders. There is so much going on below the surface as was shown in earleir postings relating to Hollie Grieg.
There has been no inquiry into our involvement in extra-ordinary rendition, enhanced interrogation techniques, and what is coming out from the Baha Mousa death is truly appalling. It is alright for the politicians to proclaim continually about our brave and courageous soldiers, but some pretty awful stuff was done by them, and the one who went public on these things now has a High Court injunction against him, preventing from his right to free speech.
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I so enjoy listening to those that are hoping for a 'hung' Parliament. It seems they think that 'their' political party is on 'their' side.
Let's get one thing straight - in a 'hung' Parliament only one thing matters - power. It will mean that nobody gets what they actually voted for - you will get what the polticiians stitch up between them. And you'll have absolutely no input to that decision whatsoever.
And one glorious picture enters my head. Between Labour, Liberal, Tory and nationalists, no coalition is big enough in itself to have overall majority. But the BNP has won Dagenham and Farage has won Buckingham. Those two hold the key to power.
Would all those socilaist and semi-socialists be singing the praises of PR then?
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Andrew,
a few weeks ago there was the story of how police officers entered peoples homes, without permission, and filled swag bags. The purpose being to show how easy it would be for people to enter and to commit a fellony, namely to burgle somebody's home.
This story has not died, well not down here in the sunny home of the Met Office, Exeter. it is not good enough, and Alan johnson must call for an immediate inquiry into the conduct of the police down here. We know that it might have been with the best of intentions but like the Foreign Office memo about the papal visit it is totally unacceptable. What sort of country is it that we now live in.
There is talk that certain units caring for children, heart units, will be closed, and some transferred to centres of excellence. This is like hubs and spokes, and down here we had an earlier situation with regard to treatments for Cleft Lip and Pallette, in young children. This is centralisation and is not in the long term interests of young chldren, nor their parents. Expertise yes, but it must be spread around. Centralisation is not always in the best interests of the people, we learnt that during the war.
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Andrew,
the politicians have to reduce the budget deficit. That is not all, they must also pay back the accumulated debt. They have to take enough from us to pay back what debt has been accumulated, that will be what our children will have to do. They will have to pay for our completely unsustainable lifestyles.
Labour keep talking about reductions by Tories for large estates of death duties. Well what I find obscene is tax credits going to families on over £50,000 a year, bribery. What I find unacceptable is pensions going to people on pensions of over £100,000 a year, bribery. What I find totally unacceptable is child allowances going to people earning over £100,000 a year, bribery. What I find totally unacceptable is the number of people in local government earning over £100,000 a year, with their pensions as well, bribery
What I find totally unacceptable is that there has been no increase in personal allowances for the lowest paid this year. People must remind Brown of his 50p pension rise, and the abolition of the 10p tax rate for the lowest earners. Labour don't care about the workers, the poor, the elderly, he was a friend of the bankers, opening Lehman Brothers office, and look at the connections of labour to Goldman Sachs. It was Blair who announced on TV the increases to spending on the NHS, and was Brown upset, you know the you've stolen my budget, with a couple of expletives thrown in. Yet today I heard Brown says it was him, it might have been but he was only following his leader, doing what he was told, and boy was he angry.
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A lot of problems highlighted during the election campaign could be avoided by simply introducing secret voting for MP’s in the House of Commons, this would make the Political Party almost redundant which would obviously irritate the media but would do the country a massive favour.
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Clegg is now saying he might support Labour if they ditch Brown. So let's get this right; Clegg, having benefitted from his appearance in the Leaders' Debates to the extent that he comes second in the popular vote, supports the third Party in Government on condition that they have a Prime Minister who didn't take part in the debates?
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When I hear Lord Mandelson and Osborne, hardly frontrunners in the vanguard of democracy, squealing about another dose of their unfettered mismanagement representing the best we have on offer, then I feel a glow of content that we may yet consign the fuedal classes to the dustbin of history.
The ridiculous be-stockinged cloth cap Lordships who seek to mimic those they detested so heartily are no more relevant or representative of a democracy than their inbred non-dom cavalier fellow riders.
All pretence of updating the Constitution goes out ofthe window when it appears it will happen of its own accord, without the poisonous guiding hand of politicians to guide it into complete impotence.
sagamix and I are both content. This is portentous and tonight there'll be baying wolves, or perhaps Lord Mandelson crying out wanting to know where it all went so wrong.
In all honesty I'm not sure there is any alternative than a hung parliament now. The only remaining unknown being who is going to form the government, based on what outcome. There's no point trying to change the inevitable. Better to work out how best to adapt to the likely outcome. Sun Tsu or Napoleon would have said it if hadn't said it first.
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Am I not right in thinking that David Camaron may not get the opportunity too form a minority government, even in the event of the Conservatives emerging as the largest party with no overall majority. In such circumstances does our unwritten constitution not give the incumbant PM the chance too form a government first. This would give the Labour Party the chance too kill two birds with one stone. As part of a Lib-Lab pact they would have to ditch Gordon Brown -- for say David Milliband and adopt a PR voting system, thus seeing off for ever a future majority Conservative administration. Maybe that will be The Big Mo of the 2010 Campaign.
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Andrew,
it is not the Trident programme which is the problem. It is the new aircraft carriers. What on earth are we going to do with aircraft carriers. We can't afford the planes to fly from them. Not only that they will need protecting by frigates, and cannot just go around the high seas like our old gunboat diplomacy.
The defence review must abolish the differentials between the three armed forces, army, navy, air force, all one. However, the main issue will be that they should also exist as a European force, or even better put exclusively to the use of the United Nations, to bring peace and stability around the world, with international agreement as to their activities. I mean it was on August 27th 1928 that Britain signed the pact for the Renunciation of War. about time there was another one, the last one not being very successful.
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Andrew,
as many people who read your blog know I do so love looking at old debates as recorded in Hansard and I have come up with this little gem from His Majesty's Speech on 10 May 1929 vol 74 cc 521-6:
"Owing to the uncertain situation in Afghanistan and the absence of a settled Government, My Representative was withdrawn from Kabul at the end of February. It is My earnest hope that internal peace may soon be restored and a Government established acceptable to the people generally with which My Government will be able to resume the friendly intercourse of the past."
Oh what on earth has happened in the intervening years. Mind you it is still wonderful to record no deaths in Afghanistan since 7th April. It is my firm belief that the officers have been instructed to confine the troops to barracks during the election period. The blood of the next soldier killed will be on the hands of the politicians because if they can be confined to barracks during the election period then there is absolutely no reason why they should ever go out again. I mean we will withdraw when the Americans do anyway, and that will be sooner than many think.
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#64 Catch22
10/10
Well done Terry.
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Andrew,
there is much talk, some of it instigated by yours truly on changes to the voting system, well as far as I am aware this has been going on since, well shall we say 1884.
So I thought I would look at the House of Lords debate on the Representaion of the People (No. 2) Bill, the deabte being reported in Hansard and was held on 2Jul 1931 Vol. 81:
Now then this is what was said about the alternative vote system by Viscount Ullswater:
I will show what I think is even worse than a piebald system. Take the alternative vote. You have three Parties submitting their three candidates. The first candidate who comes out at the top of the poll does not obtain a complete majority. In order to arrive at a result, you take the second preferences of the last candidate, then you add them to the first preferences of the others, and you get a member returned by the first preferences of his own people and the second preferences of some others, who may differ in principle absolutely from the principles which the successful candidate represents. You get, therefore, a sort of half-bred member; you might even call him a quarter-bred member; anyhow a mongrel member who does not really know whom he represents. He represents the first preferences of one principle and the second preferences of a totally different principle. Therefore he must be divided not into two equal parts, but he must be divided in his allegiance to two different Parties, possibly even to three different Parties.
What this means as well is that some of the electorate actually have two votes, and is that fair. It is wonderful that the political classes want to mess around with a system which has actually stood the test of time, for me, democracy does actually mean first past the post. Let me repeat an argument, Sussex let us say elects only conservatives, Durham only labour, whilst Cornwall only liberals. Now then nobody knows or really cares about the Cornish, but who was meant to stand up for the socialists in Sussex, or the tories in Durham. Does it matter, no amount of change of system would benefit Sussex, or Durham. What is the purpose of an MP, to stand for only those who voted for him, I say a categoric no, it is to stand for his constituency, and all of the voters in his constituency, no matter which party. Furthermore, it is the purpose of an MP not actually to be part of a debating society, it is to form a government, and it is the job of MPs to hold the government to account, not necessarily to oppose it, but to hold it to account.
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Andrew,
may I ever so humbly suggest that anybody who is really interested in the voting systems should look at the debate which I have just refrred to. This may not be very interesting to some but actually it is just so relevant in the current debate. This is what Lord bayford said about the alternative vote system in respect of the representation of the Peope (No. 2) Bill:
The second point about which I feel intensely is that this system of voting must lead to a gerrymandering of opinion in order to catch the second votes of particular bodies. Many of your Lordships have fought contested elections and you are all aware how people come to you and say: "If you can give such and such a pledge it will carry a large number of electors." Conceive how that will increase if a candidate is told that a certain body of electors who are supporting a particular candidate who knows he has not got a chance will give him their second vote if he gives them some pledge entirely at variance, perhaps, with his own opinion. I think it unfair and unwise to condemn candidates to that particular injury.
It is indeed a privilege to know that so many people in the past have exactly the same views as myself. I had not read this particular debate until tonight, but what goes around comes around.
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Trawling the Beebs Election 2010 offerings I selected the Respect Party launch in Manchester and it was interesting if only for the mention of the candidate Salma Yaqoob a Brum City Councillor.
I first saw her a year or two ago and was immediately taken by her style. She has a presense, charisma, callit what you will and says her piece with conviction and sincerity.
At the time I said watch that girl she will go far. She is now a respected Respect Councillor and a Parliamentary candidate. Good luck to her. It must be galling for Brown that the retiring Labour MP Lynne Jones, never one to be whipped in, is supporting Salma's efforts to become the MP over the Labour man Roger Godsiff.
Anyway the launch report mentioned" Gorgeous" George Galloway and his appearance before the US Senate Committe. To mt delight this is still available, in two parts on YouTube. 18 or so minutes of pure magic when Geoger clincally dissects and spits out the chewed bones of his accusers. Oh joy.
I loved one of the comments from a US poster who said his uncle flew from England in WW2 inAamerican bombers and he always said the Brits were worth it ! THat Georges performance should illicit this praise is very satisfying.
HIs Big Brother performance is forgiven. Anyway wouldnt I have done the same for Rula Lenska?
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Who would have thought this election was going to be so interesting?
I suppose it proves how unlucky Gordon Brown is. He could have won in 2007, but bottled it and if he had gone last year in the attempted coup that failed. The party would be in better shape and be in better health.
Michael Portillo commented that the Tories could go for PR as a price to pay. The system whereby the party with the largest number of votes can not get a majority or that the third party has the largest number of seats, but the smallest share of the vote.
Pretty certain that GB would be prised from the leadership in any event. GB seems to be hiding way for most of the election until today, but it too late for the John Major soapbox than turned the tide for him as he got out and battled for his victory. Better Tony is having a good laugh somewhere.
I have seen our local Lib Dem candidate and one activist. The interesting thing is that I have not seen any labour posters or signs up, even in south London, which I drove across yesterday. I have seen Tory, Lib Dem, one or two greens and some independents. Has any one seen any Labour signs/posters?
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It's about time I had a go at the Tories, and whilst I was at the gym today (not against doctor's orders because I didn't ask) I happened to see Osborne sniffily telling us that a hung parliament would represent a loss of democracy. Clearly his education must have been at some minor backwoods institution to so fundamentally misunderstand the concept of playing the hand you're dealt. If he feels unable to cope, the option of resignation is open to him.
A basinful of Tory or Labour government for a full term is not a palatable option, but knowing any coalition can fall apart at any moment will ensure that all parties behave with one eye on how the electorate will judge them.
If I were Clegg I would be happy to allow Gordon to remain as PM. It hands Labour the dilemma of what to do with him, as he now as the look of the Ancient Mariner about him, and they'd be happy to let Clegg do the job for them. Just because Clegg might support Labour in coalition doesn't mean that he can't slow roast them in their own juices at the same time.
It's not difficult to understand why Cameron hasn't made a greater impact on the electorate - no one has a fanciful clue what his policies are, apart from some vague idea of local rule by tea party. He'll have to do better in the new parliament.
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Brown was his usual if I pretend this isnt happening it will go away self as he studiously ignored the protestations of an incensed father who was having to move house to get his son into a good school. Nil points Brown.
Then I almost felt sorry for Cameron. He was bushwacked by a delightful young studen who pressed him on assisted higher education. Cameron didnt ignore her , he responded and in detail. The coup de gras was when he thinking he had satisfied her concerns shook her hand and she said very politely "I dont believe you ". Nil points Cameron but not for the lack of trying.
If you want some humour , it takes a bit of finding,you have to select the cameron gets an egg piece then the montage of eggs etc over the years then the Tiawanese animation. It is quite funny.
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Good stuff, Gomer, at 70.
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Andrew - why did you not take up Mr Milliband's statement that he wasn't bothered about workers from abroad doing the work when it comes to the aerection of all the wind farms? I thought you let him off really lightly on that one - after all didn't our great leader say something along the lines of 'British jobs for British workers'? Though I suppose if the firms doing those jobs are from Germany etc. perhaps he thinks German jobs for German workers even if the job is in Britain! Certainly,despite all the pre - talk of bringing jobs into my area before the seascape was ruined by these monster erections, only one job was ever found to have been created, all the other workers came with the firm! Despite this being a windy area local people are amazed if they see even half the turbines actually working - perhaps he could take an environmently friendly train down here for his next holiday and take some notes?
Catch 22 - I too am amazed that so few folk have realised just what the freezing of tax allowances and - for pensioners - the loss of increases on graduated pension payments etc., will mean. Too busy watching the silly pre-election waffle I suppose. As if any of it will make the slightest difference to what will face us when we finally find out just how little is left in the kitty since GB started trying to get the unemployment figures down a little by creating many more, none existant, public sector jobs.
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Am seriously weighing up BNP and UKIP - must check if anyone is standing for election in this area. At least more seats for either/or could make for an entertaining time before we slowly sink into the sludge that is mebership of the Euro regime, this being the likely result following the election. Two of them will push us into it ( making jobs for the boys a certainty just like the ex great leader) and the third won't be strong enough to put paid to it. The last one to leave won't need to put the lights out - they are already dimming!
More people really aught to listen to the BBC 'world sevice' on radio 4 overnight - it may cause even more sleeplessness but, by golly, you do learn what other folk think and do. Some scary stuff out there.
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Andrew,
listening to Gordon Brown you would not think that he took over from 'I will serve a full term' Blair, as a result of a coup. That he has never been elected by anybody since taking over. That he bottled the election. that when he took power he was a novice, that he would not shake hands with the policeman at the door of Number 10 when obama did, and that he picks his nose and eats what comes out as was shown on various clips. And this man presents himself to somebody who wants to discuss policy, what policy is that Gordon, the policy of giving evidence to Chilcot, and as far as I am aware apart from Campbell, is the only person who had to write a letter, note, or memo, clarifying what he said.
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In reading much of the commentary & spending inordinate amounts of time gaming out various scenarios it became apparent that the Lib-Dems would, at this point, have the plurality if many of the "Others" voted Lib-Dem and/or voters went with their preferences instead of voting tactically. For every point past a 34% tipping point significant numbers of constituencies fall into the Lib-Dem column. It seems that vast numbers of voters cast their ballot tactically, fearing the down side rather than voting for what they really want, yet after the vote are increasingly despondent at the outcome. With the surprising results of the debates the Lib-Dems are much of the way there. All that is necessary is for those that agree with their policies to vote for them. There seems to be far too much tactics amonst Labour, Conservative, Lib-Dem and "Other" supporters & the various parties that has resulted in outcomes that everybody is disgusted with. If most voters voted the way they desired then at least the outcome would be a clear statement of where the body politic is. This promises to be a "change" election. For it to truly be one, most, if not all, must vote their convictions rather than tactically.
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"Heroin should be prescribed on the NHS and addicts given special rooms in which they can inject themselves, Dr Peter Carter, the General Secretary of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) said."
It's hard to think of what part of my mind is boggled most by such an idea, but the more amazing revelation is that this suggestion is not made on medical grounds at all.
Quite aside from the massive cost of such an exercise, and the necessity to include a whole cocktail of other addictive drugs, how would the NHS avoid responsibility for crimes committed under the influence of state supplied drugs ? Is the NHS expecting all addicts to turn up by bus and will they take the trouble to ensure they don't drive away into oblivion ?
I have had experience of the difficulty you can endure trying to get even cancer treatment on the NHS, so why they should wish to expand in to the recreational drugs field I cannot fathom. It also occurs to me that as this is not suggested on medical grounds, then they are wittingly damaging the long term health of addicts to achieve what they deem to be a social benefit. Perhaps the Hippocratic Oath doesn't apply nowadays.
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Andrew,
many know of my continued interest in Afghanistan. Now the politicians say that they want to talk about policy, rather than hung parliaments or whatever they want to refer to it. So, what about analysis of the words from Ainsworth over Afghanistan, where no soldiers have been killed since 7th April, the day after the election was called. This is what Ainsworth has been saying:
Ainsworth said "some" people, who he did not identify, had come close to implying that every death of a British soldier in Afghanistan was "not just a tragedy, but ... a scandal." Some 281 British soldiers have died in Afghanistan since 2001.
Now I think that it is more than a scandal, or so I have heard it said around and about.
Also there ought to be more said about the trial and imprisonment of Bill Shaw, a former Royal Military Policeman who works for G4S and has just been found guilty in Afghanistan over allegations of corruption. Now is this what Brown wants from Quizling Karzai.
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Andrew,
I notice that there is to be some sort of debate on Thursday on the BBC about finance. This is apparently to be a debate with three people who go by the names of Brown, Cameron, and Clegg. Now I have looked up a very famous debate which took place in the House of commons on the 8th September 1931, as reported in Hansard volume 256 cc 13-135, these are the owrds of a certain Ramsay MacDonald who was labour Prime Minister at the time of one of the worst financial crises ever to hit our country, until this one:
'I notice that there is a great attempt made to talk about a bankers' plot in international finance, an attempt to control political policy from the City. This is undoubtedly a serious obstacle to the great mass of the people understanding what was actually the situation. I want to say this. I will join with anybody who says that no outside authority ought to control State policy. I have said it again and again regarding finance, and I shall say it again and again as often as I see that influence in operation. Neither financiers nor any other organised interests should be allowed to control Parliament, step in behind the cloak of Cabinets and try to determine national policy'.
I would assert that it has not been the government of today which took over the banks, it was the banks which I would assert have taken over the government.
When the dust had settled the new government put together a new cabinet, of ten, four labour, four tory, and two liberal. I think that this will what will be needed very soon, it will be time for the politicians to put aside all personal ambition and fight for their country, otherwise unsinkable Britain will go the way of the Titanic, the unsinkable Titanic, with the loss of the captain.
By the way the crisis in 1931 was caused not by the collapse of an American Bank, but a German one, Credit Anstalt, and we should never be surprised at why the Germans are so concerned about the problems in Greece. They do not have the same short memories that we do appear to suffer from. The economic crisis is not over, there is the smell of grapeshot around, a contagion is taking hold and many have no clue as to where this crisis will lead. I am not claiming this as an exclusive.
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Andrew,
going back to my earlier comments about the great debate held in the commons as reported by Hansard on the 8th Septmeber 1931 these words were spoken by a very famous politician and are worth repeating now:
'I was brought up in my father's house upon such watchwords as "Trust the people" and "Never fear the British democracy," and I do not think we need fear them now. They are a great people, and they are at their best on great occasions. They rise to emergencies when there are real emergencies to face, and they know quite well that there is more freedom here than in many foreign countries. They know quite well that the rich in this country are more heavily taxed than anywhere else, and they also know that poverty and misfortune are more liberally and compassionately dealt with in this country than anywhere else, and better than they are dealt with even in great countries like the United States which were unsmitten by the War. Those people are proud of their country, and they will never forgive the men of any party who took part in allowing this country to fall behind in the march of nations which has reduced us to our present position in the world. I say to the Government and to those who are going to support them in their difficult task that we need not be afraid of the British democracy in the grim struggle which lies ahead of us. Give them a fair chance and a good plan, give them fidelity and courage, and then you may go to them in good heart'.
Now I will reveal who spoke these famous words, but compare them to Brown and his moral compass, and his father, and his middle-classness. It is not Stalin that Brown should be compared with, it is Churchill, for those were the words given by the great man in 1931, and I will never forgive the politicians who think of themselves before their country.
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70. GomerPyle
Tory policy:
Can I rule my street under the Tory Big Society plan?
My manifesto will promise that residents will have the authority to fill in potholes themselves and there will be zero tolerance on any crime, including public dog or cat fouling for which Sharia law will be specifically imposed.
Immigration will be strictly controlled by old Mrs B., the street's longest residing inhabitant.
Anyone who burns their BBQ sausages on the Sabbath will be fined as will anyone caught lawn mowing or drilling outside of the stipulated hours.
This is the way forward.
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The current political situation, with all three main parties polling comparable percentages is astonishing. The Lib-Dem policies and general philosophy have been known for some time (except for a few recent tweaks), and their leader, Nick Clegg, has been seen and heard weekly on PMQs. Vince Cable has also been given plenty of airtime over the last couple of years.
New Labour and the Tories have also made their broad policies and general philosophies known, and have been hammering each other for a decade or more.
Yet the Lib-Dem ratings only shot up when all three party leaders appeared on TV in head-to-head debates. Why? There was nothing new in terms of party comparisons. If Mr Clegg fell under a bus tomorrow, would the Lib-Dems still be in the running?
The intriguing question that has been raised is: How critical to party success are the appearance, demeanour and presentational skills of the leader? Has voting on the basis of rigorous assessment of policies and competence gone out of the window?
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Mon93 @ 74
"Some scary stuff out there."
Yes ... you, if you're thinking of voting BNP.
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Mike, thanks for your reply re the EU (on the other thread). I have a pile going of the things where we see eye to eye; it's not of a negligible size - you'd be surprised (and not a little perturbed) if you could see it. In this case, however, it will not be added to.
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Now listen Andrew,
no I mean this listen to the answers please, you might not like the answers but this is what you are going to get on policy.
I listened with tremendous excitement to the labour party press conference this morning on policy, which seemed to me to concentrate on conservative policy with regard to estate duty.
Now then what I would say is that by actually changing the system on estate duties, you will actually generate more income. What I think has to be realised is the legitimate tax schemes which enable large sums of tax to be avoided. There is nothing illegal about it, but I think that the conservative policy on estate duty will be for the better. Trouble is the conservatives can't reveal the truth, that there changes will actually result in more taxes being received, rather than less. Well so I have heard it said around and about.
By the way I thought that Mandelson was very rude to you, I mean fancy wanting an answer to a legitimate question. As for your colleague Robinson his question was also batted aside and as I pointed out yesterday it is ridiculous the amounts of money going to some very rich individuals.
As for Clegg, does he discuss all his anti banker rhetoric with his banker father, who was of course a good banker, rather than a cunning, devious, conniving, group of casino bankers who have stolen billions of pounds from the taxpayer.
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Andrew,
at last the report into the death of Blair peach has been allowed into the public domain. For anybody who thinks that things have changed then consider Mr de Menezes, Mr Iam Tomlinson, and Baha Mousa.
Also let us think of the unfortunateBill Shaw who is even now beginning to serve a prison sentence in Afghanistan on charges of corruption. With Quizling Karzai in charge we really can't make it up, especially as we are actually funding the anti-corruption squad in that wonderful democratic country. Which is democratic but not the same sort of democracy which we have. By the way when can we expect the Bllody Sunday report to be published.
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Andrew,
I know that this might seem bizarre but as a result of listening to all these labour guarantees I think labour must be in power after the general election so that people can see that the guarantees are worthless.
I guarantee that no soldier will be killed in Afghanistan between now and the general election. That no soldier will be brought home through Wooton Basset between now and the general election. The guarantees from labour are not worth the paper they are written on, they were never intending to win this election, they want to lose it so that they can regroup and rebrand and say that everything was great before we lost power. You've voted this lot in, now you will pay the price.
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Andrew
Just watched you at the Labour press meeting. You were brilliant! I am not just saying that because I cannot stand Mandelson. You give all parties a hard time and so you should. This country needs more forensic interviewers like you. We desperately need honesty and if more of the media had people of your calibre we would have a real democracy. A democracy built on lies is just NOT a democracy.
PS Paxman has the making of a decent interviewer. He would benefit from studying your style!
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Watching Daily Politics at the moment and things are becoming much clearer.
There is obviously collusion among the big three and I begin to think that it's not cuts we should be enquiring about but tax.
We already have a 50p rate on those earning over £150000 and I can see this becoming the rate across the board on those earning over the magic £50000 figure that we hear about so much.
VAT is inflationary so would be a last resort.
Vince Cable has brought in the first £10000 won't be taxable so we appear to have a three way plan.
Cuts in public services are too vague to action immediately but income tax rises are not.
So if they won't tell us then we have to speculate ourselves.
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You'll never agree sagamix but the existence of the BNP is the direct fault of Labour and the Tories. The Tories have been as useless as Labour in the past and they can't blame others else for matters which have come about by their failure to make any attempt at addressing the problem. I have no clue what Labour's 'points based system' is meant to achieve. Will we get a plethora of nuclear scientists or an influx of estste agents ? It's another catchy phrase that really doesn't mean a thing and will be used to cover future failings.
You can get away with individual failures, but Gordon has become emblematic of all Labour's many betrayals and their pandering to the financial world, and it's amazing that Lord Mandelson hasn't realised this. In Monty Python terms he's a Norwegian Blue and as dead a parrot as you're ever likely to see.
My concern is that the Labour vote will totally collapse and in spite of Lord Mandelson's stout display, you can't help but sense that he's only going through the motions and already preparing his excuses. Paradoxically, it's possibly that the one thing that could save them from being launched into total oblivion, as the party that can distance itself from the coming hardships will be well placed for the future.
I still have confidence though, in Gordon's desperation to end the election in the PM's chair at the expense of leading his party to destruction.
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If you ignore the Clegg effect and look at what Lib-Dems stand for, you get the following:
Strongly pro-EU, greater integration, abandon sterling and join the euro.
Anti-Trident, anti-Eurofighter, anti-nuclear energy.
Pro-immigration disguised behind unworkable location plans.
Pro-amnesty on long term illegal immigrants.
Questionable (soft) policies on crime.
Pro-high taxes on motorists and air travellers. Anti-road investment.
Pro-dubious belief in solving energy needs through renewables.
No clearer (equally dishonest) on how to reduce the deficit.
Fully signed up to man-made climate change and steps to combat it.
And now, pro-giving nurses more influence over hospital management.
Also - shifty on what they would do in the case of a hung parliament.
Is Clegg making these things clear, or is he mainly angling for a good enough result to achieve PR and significant say in future governance?
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bg@81
Careful what you say - half of Barking now wants to vote for you.
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Catch22, while I love a good conspiracy the idea that Labour are trying to lose this election is ludicrous. Gordon Brown hates Mandelson and for him to enoble him and bring him back into cabinet shows his desperation to win. With such a massive debt to service this country has never need a leader more but we will inevitably get a bureaucrat and nothing else.
Where is the Churchill, Thatcher, Lloyd George or even Wilson when you need them. None of the current options have ever had a proper job or worried about their mortgage payments. They think that we should keep digging ever deeper to bale them all out while they waste our money on their pet projects. Whatever happened to if you can't afford it you can't have it.
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Sorry to have to criticise your presenter but...,
I watched Jo Coburn on the Daily Politics programme this a.m., trying to get an answer out of a Liberal politician woman as to how they would play the hung parliament card. It was painful to listen to Ms Coburn repeating the same question a million different ways. The Liberal could have stopped Coburn in her tracks by saying, I am not going to answer your question, but both of them dragged it out interminably. This is not the first time Jo has gone over the top, overtalking the person being interviewed. Ms Coburn seems to like her own voice and is turning out to be a motor mouth who is more interested in improving her career prospects by forcing something new out of the politicians rather than using her time to shed some light on a debate. She looks like the token woman presenter that the Beeb like to have, just to show how accomodating they are. Perhaps the programme director (if not Andrew) could tell her to calm down. Perhaps they are both feart to tell her. Well let her read this.
Apart from this I quite enjoy watching the programme.
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Given today's focus on the Economy and the Election Debate on Business isn't the solution obvious - the Banks were responsible for this economic debacle - they should be made responsible for the remedy STARTING with the £30bn deficit discussed today. Why is this too simplistic or naive?
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Looks lke Lord Mandelson has lost his "touch" completely:
This clip is titled "Car Crash Labour News Conference" is a classic. For once the contents of the tin actually match the tin label!
http://www.the-daily-politics.com/home/38-editorial/1482-car-crash-labour-news-conference-27th-april
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Hamish,
"forcing something new out of the politicians rather than using the time to shed some light on a debate."
Yes, there's far too much of that self regarding "rottweiler" questioning of politicians by the media. Achieves nothing.
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# 91 I hope you're wrong about the Lib Dems wanting to give nurses more power over running the health service in view of their leader's desire to provide free drugs to addicts, I mentioned earlier.
It wasn't even a clinical decision but a brazen piece of social engineering without a care or thought as to the implications. I saw somewhere a figure of 350,000 heroin addicts in the UK (and, of course, other users of different drugs would be impossible to exclude) and at an annual cost of fifteen thousand pounds per addict (which I suspect ia a wild underestimate) would cripple the NHS at a swipe.
I was half asleep this morning when I saw a US charity mentioned on BBC TV, thet offered drug addicts three hundred dollars if they were sterilised. I'm not sure if this is being offered in the Uk yet, and it's getting harder to distinguish nightmare from reality in the New Labour Vision of Hell that entices you into the world of Eugenics with sweet music to beguile the soft of mind. At times the Labour Party outdo the BNP, but they play mood music to make you feel it's quite acceptable to sterilise those we do not wish to reproduce. Who's next ?
Perhaps reproduction could be taxed, and you'd require planning permission first ? Are we seeing the end game of the New Labour plan being hurriedly exposed as the whole shambles begins to fall apart ? This might sound fanciful to some, but to those who may scoff I suggest that they look up the Fabian Society and eugenics. Many of New Labour's 'young guns' are members of this group, and I wouldn't countenance any of them applying any of this stomach churning philosophy to us. Not even the BNP go that far.
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gomer,
"You'll never agree sagamix but the existence of the BNP is the direct fault of Labour and the Tories."
Well not existence - but the rise of, yes I agree. Not for letting a ton of foreigners in, that's all good, but for not addressing the core issues of poverty and lack of life chances in deprived working class areas; I mean all such areas, regardless of whether the people living there are black, white, brown or whatever, and regardless of where they happened to have been born. This is the issue, not the "migrants jumping the queue for council houses" nonsense - that's called anger displacement (misplacement) and it's dangerous. We shouldn't pander to this sort of sentiment.
(but the BNP probably won't win a single seat next week so, you know, let's not get too worried).
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I admire andrew neil and andrew boulton and other commentaters who are trying to get the three main partys to answer the question "how are you going to deal with the deficit in the economy, nobody will get a straight answer or they try to scare the general public, i.e threats of public disorder, curtailing benefits, it will all end in tears
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It is looking increasingly likely that Belgium will split into two separate countries with the Flemish and Walloons going their separate ways.
Maybe England should take note of the inherent dangers in muliculturalism.
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Good afternoon each & Andrew.
Cuts?
Cuts are not the real problem.
The real problem is that for all that we shall each be asked to bear. For all that we--the--people will have to pay and pay again just to stand still. Pay in cash and broken dreams and thwarted expectations and hope for the future of all.
All this to pay and nothing offered by way of recompense and contrition.
Each of the main Partys were there at the death and wish to be there at the mooted rebirth and yet; nothing for those who shall pay.
Business as usual. Will NOT do.
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101 Michael
Stephanie Flanders blog covers this well today.
When politicians do try and address the deficit reduction it gets pulled apart by emotive arguments from both commentators and opponents.
This week Brown is criticising plans to reduce tax credits for the well off and is accusing his opponents of making it more difficult to see cancer consultants. This is the same man who has thrown money at GPs and hospital consultants, without getting value for money back for the patients. The money squandered in this particular instance could have been channelled into patient care instead of rewarding an already well remunerated minority.
Some interviewers, Eddie Mair being a prime example of this, will repeatedly twist the words of the hapless politician who makes the mistake of being honest - one can hardly blame them for obfuscating at times.
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'superAngry' points out that Belgium will probably split into two countries. So surely Nigel Farage was correct to describe Belgium as a 'non-country' and it should not be him who needs to apologise.
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#105 mikerophone
I would opt to live in the Elgi half.
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Our political leaders are going to tell us about the economy are they ? - when they've done all they can to obfuscate and avoid telling us the truth. Wouldn't it be better if we sat them down and told THEM the facts.
If the relevations about what has been going on within the City are true, then a large number of the banks there should be run out of town. Forget any worry about us losing the benefit of their company. There are barely words capable of describing the dereliction of duty that has allowed such practices to prosper without hindrance.
If bankers turn the word 'bank' into an obscenity, then isn't 'banker bashing' justified ? Never forget that financial wrongdoing isn't a victimless crime. Whether it be a pensioner or a defaulting mortgagee, or perhaps a country that won't be receiving aid from us next year or a person whose hip operation is put back two years - there are victims.
Am I alone in finding that the more I see of the leaders, the less palatable I find them all ?
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#107
Andrew and his moderators have been very generous to me in allowing me to quote verbatim extracts from various debates from the 1931 period in the commons, when labour collapsed to a National Government after a general election. I can seriously see exactly the same collpase happening again over the next couple of years.
With the collapse of the economy in Greece there will be a repeat in a other countries. Germany does remember their own crash, and hyper inflation of the early part of the last century. They know and the pain of what results is burnt into their very being, into their hearts. Anybody who is stupid enough not to realise this is, well stupid.
There were many mini crashes in stock markets leading up to the great crash of 1929, but governments tried to stop asset prices falling by throwing money at the markets to save them, cheap money, borrowed money, printed money, anything to stop asset prices falling. The anglo-saxons had won the Great War because of the access to money, by selling assets in America. Germany had lost the war because even in the early days America had not been neutral, American bankers had forced the markets to take sides, they of course supported Britain because of our historic investments.
We have repeated the same mistakes, for Credit Anstalt in that period, look at Lehman Brothers, and Northern Rock. Lehman Brothers just went, gone, but Northern Rock, sorry it should have been allowed to fail, people would have learnt a painful lesson, but the lesson needs learning. Let asset values fall, that is what should have happened, some people would have lost, but it is the same with the Icelandic banks, people were chasing the yield, the higher the yield, the greater the risk.
The route to failure is to lend long, and borrow short. What on earth do you think is happening at a national level to our economy, please get real. I sometimes despair because the crash will be made worse if you keep putting it off. Share prices must fall, house prices must fall, deflation is in the air, it really is.
The experts keep referring to the Dow Jones, when it falls and rises. The Dow Jones index is the most pathetic index ever devised, apart from anything else it is only thirty stocks, I mean thirty stocks, to reflect the American market.
I am so angry with the politicians, because at last a 'think tank' is saying what I have been saying for ages, that we are, well, doomed. Seriously doomed. Because eventually the politicians and economists will understand that no matter how hard you try, you can't beat the market. It may take a year, it may take ten years, or even thirty, forty, or fifty years, but do people really understand the difference in economic terms between the short run, and the long run. The game is up, it really is, and soon even China will realise the error it has made by funding our consumption, the economy will collapse, now that will be a problem.
We have lent long, and borrowed short, and you can blame the bankers if you like, try to hide behind greed and avarice, but it is the herd mentality which has done this, and the worst aspect of the herd mentality is when we go to the voting booth, it really is time for NOTA, none of the above, because it is a strong man which is needed, afraid so, I don't like any of the options we are being offered. Where is our Angela Merkel when we need her. I know she's a woman but you know what I mean.
We have based our recovery on a depreciated pound, well now the Euro is going the same way, it's a game, a big game. Oh, and don't blame the speculators, whatever you do don't blame speculators, they are the realists, they will crash and burn like the rest of us, it is time to lock and load.
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Andrew,
I know that many people now have the attention span of a gnat but I hope that you will allow me to give a link to the commons debate of September 1931 which so eloquently captures almost the identical situation we find ourselves in today, only the National Government was in place. Henry Ford is famously quoted as saying that 'History is bunk' it really isn't, I hope that others will have the opportunity to read the debate, it is illuminating, time to lock and load:
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1931/sep/08/financial-situation
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Andrew,
it is about 6:20 and I am listening to the Today programme and an expert on the financial markets.
The problem is that some people have made an awful lot of money by investing in some sectors of the market over the last year, since the government started printing money with their Qualitative Easing, well now the money has gone, it has been 'invested'. However, a profit is not a profit until it is realised. So, if these investors want to realise their gains then they have to find a mug to buy the shares off them, and there is now no money left, so share prices will fall, let them, because there has been a false market created by QE. House prices have been artificially held up, all this shared equity, please.
Back in 1994 I bought my current home, it cost about £70,000. Apparently it is now worth over £200,000 more. However, let us say that a bank had lent me the money to buy the house, and charged me a rate of interest, and other charges. Now then let us say that the cost to the bank was £50,000. Now as a banker what sort of deal is that. They lend me £50,000 and I 'make' £150,000 now what sort of banker is that, he totally miscalculated, he should have charged me more. Now I know that if I could have put the £70,000 into another asset class then I may have made some more money, I could have borrowed and bought another house, speculated, but I didn't.
The whole system is crashing, please understand that asset values must fall, to enable the young to enter the market, but it must be understood that they will not 'profit' as my generation has done. There is another way only most people will not accept the cure, just look at what is happening in Greece, riots, which will scare investors even more. The trouble is that over here many people will blame any riots on the race issue, the underlying problem is the economy, we are already being set up.
I finish by saying that yet again no British deaths in Afghanistan, brilliant, all the lives in Iraq and Afghanistan lost for nothing.
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Governments have created a self-pepetuating monster, that is bound to implode. The banks support it because it makes them pot loads of money, but its mechanics make it fundamentally unsound.
Why do governments prostrate themselves in front of banks like hormonal tennagers at the feet of over made up ladies of the night ? They offer them the route to sell off their debt and on that unholy alliance governments allow banks to perform whatever frauds suit them for as long as banks hoover up their debt.
However the markets now have the method to profit from speculating on those weak members of the herd, and its easy to see the predatory banks circling the carrion in front of the, and don't be fooled into believing our time won't come, and soon. Greece is lost and doomed because there's money to be made on 'shorting' them to oblivion. Portugal and Italy will follow, making spain the next domino to fall. Germany is the vicar's daughter who will lose nerve to bankroll the fiasco, and banks have no care that this will inevitably bring thm to another crash as they're the ones holding this ever less valuable debt.
An unworkable financial system has evolved, with precious little regulation, and it is fixing us into a system of ever continuing crisis. Germany is forced into the position of banker to this fiasco, almost as if the banks want their wealth added to the ever increasing that backs up this financial game of poker.
This all came about when New Labour went over to the Dark Side, and the counter balance to greed was lost. It is not just that banks and the financial markets operate on fundamental greed, but that it now operates on a strategy of undermining itself, even going as far as self-destruction, for the purpose of turning a quick buck. It's as if they've designed a car engine with so many turbos and super-chargers, it can only blow itself up.
The question is, how many financial crises will we have to suffer before someone gets a clue ? Taxing banks as a solution is the most abysmal demonstration of empty headed cluelessness you could imagine, and merely represents a stubborn desire to cling to a system that no longer functions. Perhaps if Darling announced the termination of the NHS and the state pension he might understand the inevitable outcome putting the nations finances into the hands of the banks.
'You can trust us - we're a bank' is an expression from a bygone era, and it's pretty poor that our Chancellor is still falling for it.
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It is astonishing that it has taken until now for the media to "grow a pair" and start asking awkward questions on how to tackle the deficit and ultimately the debt. The political "solutions" put forward so far are surprise surprise more tax and efficiency savings on government spending that somehow were never possible to implement in the last 13 years - good thing that most of the electorate are thick, then!
Given the amounts of cuts needed, capital projects must be the prime targets. Whittling a few billion here and there will happen as well, but over the whole piece that may total to say 10 billion per annum which is an achievement but still peanuts in the grand scheme of things.
So, renewal of Trident and replacement aircraft carriers: cannot happen now. In the middle term they may be revised (5 - 10 years) but the strategic defence review must have a solid case for their need. Aircraft carriers withouth a flotilla support vessels are useless, so we are also talking about new destroyers and frigates. If Trident is replaced we must have a joint US/Uk production effort to cut costs and stop paying a King's ransom to Barrow-in-Furness for substandard product.
The government must also learn how to draw up commercial contracts and more importantly how to sue private contractors when delivery or quality controls are not met. PFI projects are a good example of what we the taxpayer will be paying for again in a few years as the new buildings will need replaced.
The EU must become a leaner beast. How many people that work for the EU are on tax free salaries? How is it right that Greece should balance it's books when the EU has never satisfied it's Auditors for the same reasons?
A warning to politicians: a rise in VAT will be catastrophic for the economic recovery. Tampering with the zero rating on food will cause riots, and although the police status has been changed from civilian to para-military in the UK, they are nowhere near equipped to deal with riots across the nation. For the really stupid MPs, please remember that most of the Armed Forces are overseas so the police will get no help from that quarter.
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#112
it's all about pork barrel politics, about gerrymandering, about an education system which has failed completely. All that has happened is that more and more people are being bought off. Take overseas aid.
One of the richest men in the country is an an Indian steel magnate. Now then we close Corus steel works. A real industry, steel making. So, we give aid to India, massive aid, we still give aid to many countries which then compete us, we probably even give aid China in some form or another, we buy their goods, which were previously made in our country, from factories which we have transeferred .
We must reduce our foreign aid programme. The whole programme would seem to be based on giving work to foreign people on the basis that there is no work here, so don't be an economic migrant, stay where you are we will send the jobs to you, a steel works, a china company, a call centre. Listen I was one of those people who got on his bike when I lost my job here in the early nineties, I went where the jobs were, only even these have disappeared. Foruntaley I have sufficient private income so that I don't have to rely on the state, many other younger people will not have the same opportunities as I have. I know how 'lucky' I am.
There is a serious financial problem, even if Miliband says that the IFS is looking into the next parliament. That is the longer term, but at some time the longer term becomes the short term, time does not stand still. The education system has failed, we have never had a free market economy, look around you and see how much the country depends on the state. Look at the economic definitions of the short term, and the long term, this is about the means of production. Look at what is revenue, and look at what is capital. Just look at PFI. I am getting so angry when I feel that people may well look back in thirty years and say that nobody said anything, nobody told us, and then somebody comes across my ramblings, my anger, and they will say, you know that guy, Catch22, he was telling us but nobody listened, or nobody heard him. I am going to have to shout louder. This is not a slow motion car crash, this is a major train crash, and with the dead men at the handle we are actually accelerating, and the buffers are fast approaching.
Well done the reporters, who yesterday, at the press conference pushed the labour people for answers. Yourself in particular. As for Mandelson and his 'calm down' and then going on about the reporters not standing for election, well exactly who is standing for election, Balls and Cooper might be, but Mandelson, that was why there was laughter from 'the pen'.
I have just heard that short selling is to be banned in Greece, a bit late, but I have said that before and like everything else it will happen. All, I mean all, governments must ban immediately short selling. Globally, just make announcements now. Ah, the men in white coats are at the door, the lunatics have taken over the asylum, but who are the sane ones. There must be somebody, please help me, at this point the straps are tightened, and the arms stop flailing, but the mind keeps thinking.
In the meantime what exactly is happening in the forgotten war in Afghanistan. Another day and no announcement of any deaths, a good day.
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Andrew,
so now having listened to the Today programme that people are thinking of Gladstone, and the liberals of old. Just look at the following and tell me that history is repeating itself. This is the beginning of a debate in 1919 about the Factory Act:
Factory Act (Florists).HC Deb 29 June 1910 vol 18 cc929-31 930
Sir J. D. REES asked the Home Secretary whether the Government rejected the recommendations of the Commissioner appointed by his Department, Judge Ruegg, that permission should be given to work after 8 p.m. and provision should be made for annual, whole, or half-holidays to different employés on different days, in the case of florists to whom the Factory Act had, contrary to their wishes, been made applicable; and, if so, whether he was aware that florists would be driven to substitute thousands of foreign men for English women, to the aggravation of unemployment and the encouragement of a foreign preference in a trade hitherto in British hands?
Now then please remember that I have said before that one of the worst improvements in democracy has been to increase the franchise, women in particular, and men who lacked property. Why should I make such an astounding assertion. Because democracy has become about buying votes, and bribery, and people know of my views on money. So, in order to be elected the 'people' have to be bribed, and nowadays more people have to be bribed, especially with the party political system rather than the person.
Of course the aircraft carrier building programme should be scrapped, we can't afford them, and as for the running costs, we are bankrupt, we are like the old Ottoman Empire, we are now the sick men of Europe, we have nothing to defend anymore. Choo Choo.
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101. At 6:45pm on 27 Apr 2010, Michael Dalgleish wrote:
I admire andrew neil and andrew boulton and other commentaters
Amongst whom, for once, I have to include Nick Robinson. Nice one, Nick (does he read other poster's blogs?)
Must say I enjoyed the spectacle of the ever savvy PM managing to bring up the thorny issue of who votes and for whom whilst digging another big hole. All over the news it was, but took me a while to find. The BBC site search is, as we know, often convoluted.
http://www.the-daily-politics.com/home/38-editorial/1482-car-crash-labour-news-conference-27th-april
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My 112
Forgot to mention pensions. I have long held the view (since I worked for a large Scottish Pension Company) that the final salary pension scheme should be administered so that there exists a maximum payout level. In many schemes both in the public and private sectors, it is the lower paid employee that depends most on their future pension and this can really make a difference to their wellbeing.
It is ridiculous that directors, manages etc should accrue the same fraction of their final salary as say a clerk. The former is more likely to "wipe out" the pension pot, especially if their salary is artificially raised in the last month(s) of employment. Warnings about this have sounded in the last 10 years to no avail as New Labour firstly under the avaracious Blair and then Brown (who knows that he is always right etc) have ignored this.
This comes under moral and fiscal responsibility. Impoverishing a working generation in this manner can only be described as criminal. People who earn a high 6 figure salary will have saved and do not require a 6 figure pension to keep the wolf from the door. Ironic that that all the political parties have adopted the mantra "fairness for all": will this hold true or will the electorate receive one almighty kick in the teeth?
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Andrew,
I am even more convinced that your blog is the one, it really is. I think even Mandelson and the rest now read you, and the comments which we make.
I think that we have learnt lessons from Iraq. That the politicians failed us by not asking the correct questions when they had the chance. The same with the media, I may be harsh but very few of them asked the right questions, over what happens next, over extra-ordinary rendition, and enhanced interrogation techniques, and their silence over Harry in Afghanistan.
However, I think that lessons have been learnt. I know I should calm down, but I can't. If only people looked at the demographics of our country. I mean it is so important to understand what will happen over the next few years with people reaching retirement age. What will be happening will people will retire from the public services, and they must not be replaced by new people, but the existing staff, that is efficiency and always was the plan, or it should have been.
What people will be upset about is the pensions which will be paid as deferred pay, but that these people will not be working. look at the reports coming out from Birmingham about equeal pay. Look at the pay and bonuses being paid to bin men. I have heard a report of one earning £50,000 a year because of what went on, now if his pension is based on his final years earnings imagine how much he will cost us.
Pensions must be based on average earnings over the whole of the working life, or possibly ten, or twenty years, but definitely not on the earnings over the final year. It is obscene for any pension to be above £50,000 a year, it really is, and anybody who doesn't see that it is extremely ignorant. Where is the fairness in that, and the worst offenders? MPs. As for tax free lump sum payments on retirement, no more.
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Andrew,
one of the political parties will get great benefit from saying that in respect of pensions they must be limited to £50,000 per annum. For somebody to have more than that completely defeats the object of what a pension is. Look in the financial pages of your newspaper.
Look at annuities in respect of what sum of money is required to purchase a pension. Look at buying a joint annuity, husband and wife. Using £10,000 as your sum available a level pension without guarantee will deliver less than £500, and any search will reveal say a low of £452 ans a high of £485. Now that is based on an annuity of £10,000. How much money would it cost to purchase a pension of £50,000. How much I hear you shout , will here is the catch it will cost approximately £1,000,000. Now when will people realise the true costs of the gold plated pensions, not only in the public sector, but even the exploitative private sector.
To set a maximum pension of £50,000 a year will I think find universal acceptance. And it must be implemented now, with immediate effect.
You won't know this but yesterday was absolutely superb down here in the westcountry, in Devon. So I went back to my roots. Where my grandmother on my fathers side lived and worked, near the South Hams, where she gave birth in a workhouse to my father who was farmed out immediately to relatives who could not have a child. Where he was conceived out of wedlock to a mother who was born herself into great poverty. He went on to become a senior naval officer.
So I went to Hope Cove, where I worked as a teenager in an hotel for a short while. It was almost deserted, it was beautiful, so I went around the Cove to another beach, and that was also beautiful and deserted. It was a day when it was good to be alive, despite the Swine Flu which I amn asuffering from. The sandy, beach, the clear blue sky, the clean clear sea, cold but tolerable. Where am I going with this, just that this is such a beautiful country, it isn't fair, and it never will be, but whilst you and the other reporters are working in sweaty conditions, inetrviewing the politicians, do you and others really need to be doing that, should you guys also not be in a better place, on a beach, with nature all around you, enjoying life to the full. What is the point, are we really on this planet to work. Is that it. Because if it is then we are all nothing but slaves, serfs, and as for money. Watch the programme which Joanna Lumley has made, on her trip, in Ethiopia, and be struck with awe. Not the shock and awe of Iraq, but the awesome power of nature, and we the people are part of nature, just like everything else, we have lost the plot. The train crash which is fast approaching might actually be our saviour, to save us from ourselves. Maybe the buffers are spring loaded after all.
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Andrew,
I look forward to the time after the election when you will no longer be in the pen. They will get their revenge for all these pesky questions. No more foreign trips, on the summit circuit, no more appearing on your shows, forget it, nobody available.
Watch out for people saying that there will not be any direct payements to bail out Greece. We give millions to the IMF, the IMF bails out Greece, accordingly we make indirect payments, so please stay awake you guys.
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Good afternoon each & Andrew.
Gordon.
Take care of the little things.
[if I too come across as bigotted. Tough]
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Andrew,
am watching your programme with Ed Balls, and the labout party broadcast tonight. I have no political allegiance, I have however had cancer, malignant melonoma.
Now I have always had moles, trust me I have. However one changed in its appearnace. So I went to my GP and he said keep an eye on it if it changes then come back. Within four weeks I noticed that it was changing. I went back to my GP, who looked at it, got me an appointment at my local hospital, an expert looked at it, said what are you doing this afternoon, I said nothing, so she took me to a room, cut it out, sent it off for analysis, the result came back, she confirmed what I thought, cut out some more, and gave me a very attractive butterfly scar. That was over ten years ago, since when, nothing, absolutely nothing.
I do not need a cancer guarantee, the political advertisement tonight is an absolute disgrace, how dare they. How dare they do this to people. Brown must withdraw the advert now, if there is an ounce of decency left in the man then cancel it now. Until others see it they will not know what I am talking about but trust me, it is a new low. I am so angry, I really am.
My mother recently died in a NHS hospital, of old age, starved to death, because there was nobody to feed her, and when she did eat, it passed straight through her. People die, of many causes, we cannot be kept alive just because it does not look good on the system. It is how we die that matters, I'm getting angry again, and I wish that I could shout.
The ends do never justify the means, when will they understand what is going on. Many people do not realise that PCTs reward GPs with bonuses for reducing their drugs bill, trust me they do, and under a labour government. Andrew, please keep pressing these people. The ones who are standing for election will be retired before the real problems have to be sorted. This is why I love the internet, it gives me a voice, it gives others a voice, if people do not listen then that is there problem not mine.
The labour party political broadcast must be pulled, if not, then we are closer to revolution then many people realise. this is Browns decision, he can stop it, if he doesn't then shame on him.
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Andrew
Just watched you try to interview the three stooges (Balls, Gove and Huhne). Trust Balls to get the Party pledge on cancer care wrong. The manifesto reads:
"Patients will also have the right to see a cancer specialist within two weeks and a maximum wait of no longer than 18 weeks for hospital treatment."
But Ed gets it wrong by saying that patients would be treated within two weeks.... I mean, I accept that not all politicians can be intelligent but surely he can prioritise the thought process before opening his mouth to speak.
In practice any patient referred by a GP, would first see a consultant (or a member of his/her team), then undergo tests, then see consultant again; then either discharged or sent for treatment or more tests. Such a process would take many weeks in NHS, private health care etc.
But these pledges are silly at another level. When you are in pain/ill and see your GP, you will have no idea what really ails you. So if you need to be referred do you hope it is cancer as you will see a specialist sooner? I am sorry but the whole idea is bonkers. What I want to see is throughput: patient goes in one door ill and goes out another well - a bit simplistic but it really is the only benchmark in town.
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Andrew,
this is it, Brown is a duffer. I have just been watching the moment when he has lost it. Calling Mrs Duffy a bigot, because she said what needs to be said, about the national debt, about the fact that it is our children and grandchildren who will pay off our unsustainable life stykes. at last Brown recorded saying what he really thinks of anybody who does not agree with him. The advert tonight, his comments to Mrs Duffy, they've lost, they really have. What nasty people they are. Yes, this is it, the train has just hit the buffers.
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Andrew,
I have just listened to Darling on the one o'clock news on Radio 4. Now he says that, and I paraphrase, that action should be taken today in respect of Greece, but that last year he put off making decisions because we didn't know that the estimates of unemployment were wrong, or that the situation could change. Now that is the very reason that Greece has ended up where it is today. They put off until tomorrow that which should be done today, it is Churchill and his action this day. Darling and the rest of the political class have delayed too long, it is over. The Germans know what is wrong, people have been too soft, we are living beyond our means. Countries will be thrown out of the Euro, some not allowed in, I mean it is alright for some people to say we should be in the Euro, that is presuming that the Euro group will actually accept us. If they were then they would be mad. We should have been in the Euro from the very beginning, like we should have joined the original EEC at the very beginning, not begged to come in. History cannot be re-written, but we really should have been in it to begin with, we didn't even join the European Coal and Steel Community. A failing of our immediate post war politicians.
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Andrew,
I have listened to a discussion on the the Brown 'bigot' comment. To think that anybody who thinks that politicians say one thing in public and another thing in private is naive have got it wrong. You see what is missed is that here is more evidence, because surely the politicians keep saying that where is your evidence for that comment. Well we now have the evidence. We also have the evidence of what Brown said at the Chilcot Inquiry, and how he then had to correct his 'evidence' that what he said was not correct.
There is now the evidence. The media, and the politicians might want us to 'move on' as Darling would say, but we all know who had a mortgage with Northern Rock don't we Mr Darling.
It is still not the right time to 'move on' because what people have to realise is that the first global financial crisis was the Great Depression, which was a contagion which spread from America around the world, and was very financial, and very global. For Brown to keep asserting that this is the first global financial crisis is being economical with the truth, but we all know that what he says in private with the mikes off is completely different to what he says in public, don't we, we now have the evidence. oh, and I am not naive, not naive at all. That's the trouble.
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...I have not heard the least apology from GB regarding what he DID say. Here, the BBC has got this wrong!
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Andrew,
I actually listened to the Andrew Vine interview on Radio 2, when Brown was talking about the economy. Now he referred again to making hard decisions, and that the hardest decisions were over the economy. Now I thought the hard decisions were over sending the troops to Afghanistan. There are so many hard decisions, and every wednesday he seemed to say at the despatch box how brave and courageous the soldiers were, and that we owe the soldiers a massive debt. And he read out the names, and wrote his letters. Only trouble is that he could not seem to spell, nor to get the names right, but that was because of his eye-sight, or was it? Could it possibly be that he never really cares, that he really does not really understand, that somehow he really does think that everybody is out to get him, to deprive him of his rightful place. I fear for him, I really do, he just needs Sarah around him, to protect him from himself.
I think that if there was any way he could he would even attempt to get the debate tomorrow night cancelled, any way possible. I am afraid he is totally unfit to be PM, he must resign, with immediate effect, because to do it after the election will be a disaster for democracy. The Queen is going to have to be very well advised, there is trouble brewing.
If he does not cancel the labour party broadcast tonight then he is powerless, and a very dangerous person.
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Andrew,
just listened to Mandelson on Brown, I think that he said, and I paraphrase 'Gordon does not mean what he said' well why on earth would somebody say anything which they didn't mean, or believe. It is so good to have Peter Mandelson to speak up for you. I mean would you trust any person who said anything which they didn't mean, or believe.
It could be said to be similar to incorrectly completing a mortgage application form. Or am I not allowed to say what I think, trouble again for the moderators, do we live in a free democratic country, where a very close family member of mine has a High Court injunction against him for referring to extra-ordinary rendition, enhanced interrogation techniques, and America soldiers being trigger happy.
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117 Catch22
Catch, the Brum Dustie's pension will cost us nothing. Local Govt pensions have a fund built from contributions by the employees , 6% of their pay, plus an employer contribution which varies and can be nil.
The West Midlands Pension Fund, the one involved, is very healthy , 6 bn plus, and has no problem paying pensions.
You are perhaps confusing the Local Govt Scheme with the Civil Service scheme which is non contributory and has no fund.
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Andrew,
just listening to Nick Robinson, and saying who the Sue is to whom Brown refers. Amazing, it is Sue Nye, the very same Sue Nye who is married to the ex Goldman Sachs man, Gavin Davies. Even though Nick failed to mention who Sue Nye is married to. Am just hearing that Brown is even now on his way back to Rochdale, what to prostrate himself. I hope that he does not hold a private meeting with Mrs Duffy, I want this in public, and to hear the whole conversation, his abject apology. For Brown to be himself, that's what we have seen, it is totally unacceptable for somebody to say something to your face and then insult you behind your back. It is not bullying, it is cowardice, he is gutless, afraid to tell the truth of what he really thinks of you. He is a gutless coward, well that's what I have heard said around and about, but no doubt what I think will not be allowed to be printed, or will it. Surely if the politicians say stuff on mike which differs from what they say to our faces, then it is time let go the dogs of war.
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I think this 'bigot' remark should now bring it home finally to those who don't understand the way some politicians see us.
They are different, they don't live in the real world.
The real world for us means working to survive, staying the right side of the law and trying to leave something for those left behind when we pass on.
They have no idea whatsoever what result their policies have for the people who give them the mandate to govern. Politicians simply revel in the power they hold and worry only about how much money they can make and whose got the biggest bank balance.
They do believe they are better than us down here on the bottom of the pile. And this idea that they are going to institute policies for our betterment is 'pie in the sky'.
Well said Gordon I knew you could do it - you have shown us exactly what you think of us.
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#127
I must profusely apologise, to prostrate myself before the masses of people who read your so well informed comments. It was of course David Vine, not Andrew, who interviewed Brown, I seem to have you on my mind most of the time. Sorry about that, do you forgive me, I can only hope so. by the way how do people cancel their postal votes if they have been sent in.
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#132
Even worse disaster, as apologising for the Vine reference I was thinking of David Vine, who unfortunately recently died, and the interview was by Jeremy Vine, how can I keep on apologising for my mistakes. I am so sorry, but it shows I am human after all, the trouble is this cannot be ignored, the BBC must not be allowed to say that this is boring, time to move on. No, this will not go away.
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I have just heard Mandleson make excuses for Gordon.
Why, I think Gordon has done a lovely job. Could not have done a better job of it - the truth at last - wriggle, wriggle, wriggle, wriggle.
Gordon is certainly not a Prime Minister in any sense of the word. He should never have been allowed to carry on as Prime Minister after Blair - his policies as chancellor have destroyed this countries economy and we may be heading in the same direction as Greece.
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Andrew,
ah the wee mo. It is amazing how the Pm can find time to spend 45 minutes with an individual who he has called a bigot. Now we all make mistakes, but the PM won't admit to a big mistake about abolishing boom and bust. Or getting us into an unwinnable war in Afghanistan, for supporting Quizling Karzai, the list is endless.
I am personally appalled at all this, because no matter what the media, and the press officers, and the apologists will say how on earth can Brown have been our PM. How can he represent us on the international stage, when Brown says what he does not believe, or mean. Actually what are mistakes. I mean when you think about it Brown probably spent more time with Mrs Duffy than he did on his audiences with the Queen.
This is about Brown saying one thing in public whilst thinking something else, this is a train crash of massive proportions. How sincere is Brown, it was always going to end like this, so sad, so very sad. The comments made by others are so apposite, Brown is psychologically flawed.
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128. At 2:38pm on 28 Apr 2010, Catch22 wrote:
Andrew,just listened to Mandelson on Brown,
To which, may I add, via lunch news (SKY, so it may be influenced by aliens):
'Gordon will say in public what he feels in private'
That would be excepting a wee while ago then...?
Thank heavens it is not a time for novices.
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132 Catch22
As far as as I can tell to cancel a postal vote in an election you must apply in writing to the relevant Council and they will reply confirming but whether you get another chance to vote in that election is not clear. I expect you don't!
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#129
I know that employees make contributions to their pensions in the public sector. However, the employer contributions are in fact taxpayers contributions, it is the taxpayer who makes the employers contributions.
I had a non contributory pension, my employer made all my contributions. It was not luck, I chose an employer who offered such a 'deal'. So, the contributions were made monthly, and it is no wonder that those of us who were on those terms and conditions soon lost their jobs, being made redundant.
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Andrew,
I am just listening to the Clegg interview on the PM programme on Radio 4. If this man were ever to be PM then be afraid, very afraid. I mean if he even was in a position of being a minister as the price for a coalition with labour, with Geoff Huhne holding a position, and as for Vince Cable, who used to be an economist with the oil company Shell T & T as it was known then. How much pension does he get from them, and does he now regret working for a company which went on to grossly overstate its reserves, and can hardly be called green.
We need to know what will be the price for any coalition between labour and liberal.
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Perhaps there is a God.
Brown actualey responds quite well to the lady's questions and to her apparent satisfaction.
Win, win !
Oh no, no, no ! Brown does not even know when he has got it right. Even worse he looks for someone else to blame for his self imagined "disaster".
I do hope Sue Nye is ok.
This has been the most delicious course so far in this election.
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Gordon was right to call her a "bigot" He let her off lightly - he should have thrown his mobile phone at her. For heaven's sake what's a 66 year old widow doing expressing a point of you different to a world statesman who's saved the world's economy and all that.
I'd get the gang at No 10 to stitch her up like an Alistair. They'll soon show she's not one of us ordinary voters. I mean she's got 2 dogs - one called BOOM and the other called BUST. I'd eliminate them if I you were you Gordon - that'll teach her.
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Andrew,
I think what is beginning to annoy me more than anything else is the politicians coming on saying that we all do this, say something to somebodies face, and then saying something else. It shows to me how duplicitous the political class have become.
I would prefer the experts to say not that we do this or we do that, it should be some people, and then clarify by saying that I am one, who says something to your face and another behind your back. It is cowardly, it is nothing else. It in fact goes back to something which I frequently say, that money, and I will now add power, that makes pimps and whores of us all. I will say anything to your face to get your vote, but behind your back, well we now have the evidence as to what Brown at least really thinks of us, or maybe not even us, but an unfortunate Rochdale voter.
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138 Catch22
If you want public services then yes they are paid for by taxes which include the employers contributions to the pension scheme.
What is the alternative ? No pensions for public sectore because their "real" employer is the taxpayer ?
Why is it that different to everything you buy from Tesco or anyone else having built into its price an element for the employers contributions to their pension schem ?
Public sector workers are not some different sort of second class citizens who have to do without because they are funded from taxes.
Give me ten dustmen for one MP The latter being totally funded from taxes.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
143
There is no reason why all public bodies cannot ringfence their pension current and future obligations into funds/pension pots. So, for example the BBC is a public body funded by the TV Licence yet monies earmarked for pensions will be redirected into the appropriate fund.
If all public pensions obligations were ringfenced, then there would be more control of employee numbers on the payroll. Politically this would find little favour, but Civil Servants would welcome this as there would be tangible evidence that their pension fund did actually exist and was not contingent on a far off tax collection due in the future.
There is also a general warning about pension pot black holes that affect both private and public sector firms. All 3 political parties have been very quiet on this issue over the last 10 years.
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#143
my point is that there is no way that anybody should be in receipt of a pension of more than £50,000 per annum, and I mean nobody, either in the private or the public sector. furthermore, anybody with a pension of £50,000 loses all their entitlement to a state pension, and that includes SERPS. The whole system is nothing other than a pyramid selling scheme.
Oh and anybody who says that the Greek situation will not be repeated here with regard to government bonds needs to look up what happened with war Loan, which was due to be redeemed in 1928/9 but instead was made irredeemable, that is with no redemption date. Furthermore, my late uncle was involved in the Invergordon Mutiny when the government of the day tried to reduce the wages of naval ratings. Trust me, we are seriously closer to a revolution than many people realise. The interesting aspect of the Invergordon Mutiny was the involvement of HMS Hood and we all know what happened to her don't we, just in case you don't she was blown apart by the German ship the Bismark, which was subsequently sunk by the torpedoes fired from HMS Dorsetshire, a ship my father was on at the time.
I don't know, I start off talking about pensions, and end up with the sinking of the Bismark, incredible, and it just flows.
Oh and as for Brown it does show that he is human, a human being, only trouble is one who cannot be trusted to be honest with you, and also not a very nice one either. Interesting that Sarah should now be by his side, because who is looking after the children who he loves so very much.
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'Bigot Woman' comment proves, yet again, that Brown is not a lucky general. From a reasonable good TV interview to the wreckage we have now. It would appear Mrs Duffy would be a fellow supporter, although the remark that she liked Tony Blair better than Brown has not really been noticed.
For a long while, Brown has been in denial, he has not told the electorate the truth about Afghanistan, the economy - Darling said it was going to the worse recession in 60 years and the forces of hell were unleashed against him, by his own side.
Best Schadenfreude moment of the election, along side watching the spin doctors saying it wasn't as bad as it was.
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Andrew,
I wonder what Brown said behind closed doors with no mike. Now then can we help you, there will be much media speculation about our conversation, how about if we help you, you know we have some pretty good connections, why my Director of Communications is here now, Sue Nye, and well you know how it works. The papers will be after your story, you could make a lot of money out of this, maybe enough to send your grandchildren to a good school, then maybe university.
To see Brown on the doorstep smiling as he apologised, unbelievable, well it is believable because we saw it. In the meantime I have a very close family member who could have sold his story, about American extra-ordinary rendition, about enhanced interrogation techniques, but he just told his story, for no remuneration at all, and what did they do, slapped a High Court injunction on him. Does anybody think that a person can be libeled by asking a question about immigration, sorry net migration, and as a result be called a bigot, or so I have heard it said around and about.
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#147
you are correct. When you look at the original interview it really was not that bad, it wasn't brilliant, but if Brown had just said in the car, I actually handled that quite well, thanks guys for the spontanaiety, not too many like that, but it went well. But for him to 'blame' Sue Nye, and the picking up of a private conversation by a mic which he had left on. Maybe he should have taken the mic off. I think that the problem was that he did not have Sarah with him, why was she not there with him, holding his hand, calm down, calm down, as Peter Mandelson might have said.
It is the major flaw in Browns character, he is a perfectionist, he really does think that he can run everything, he doesn't trust people, he actually has no faith in them, and I have learnt why, it is because he doesn't trust himself, he actually is quite shy, he really has no faith in himself. He also when he made his 'statement' referred to Gillian, rather than Mrs Duffy, very rude, he also talked 'to' Mrs Duffy, rather than with, and he referred to 'you' not 'I'.
As for Harman saying what she did, about what 'we' all say things which we regret, that 'we' all make mistakes, well actually I have never said to someboy's face. well done, etc...then immediately was sly behind their back and say they are a bigot. We are not all like the people Harman must know and meet, she should apologise for such accusations, where she generalises, where is her evidence!
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143/148 Xtun /Catch
I do agree that a cap ought to be set on public sector pensions but I am wary of penalising the lowest paid.
Ideally public sector pensions should be related to the amount paid in, final salary schemes are unsustainable and create deep divisions between the public and private sectors.
Both sectors are mutually reliant on each other and we should respect anyone who undertakes any menial task in either the public or private sector, however there are huge discrepancies between the retirement aspirations of a middle manager in an SME who can currently expect a lower pension than the least skilled public sector worker.
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Gordon does a spontaneous meet and greet to discuss serious issues with random people he meets in the street.
The reality, is that it is actually to be a pre-prepared planned meeting with a Labour groupie who melts at the feet of the 'Great Orator' who is there to perform for the cameras. The nobody who is chosen is not intended to heva a view other than the party line. The sad and dismal result is that Gordon is thoroughly exposed as being unable to cope with human contact, and people with a contrary view have some defect that requires either curative or punitive action.
He isn't any different to the other leaders, except that he has no interpersonal skills. Why did he put on his 'smiley face' after the meeting with the lady he insulted ? He's been taught that face, but not when to use it. It looked quite bizarre to be recounting his contrition with such a grinning smug smile on his face.
Considering how serious the economic outlook is, even moreso with the potential for another systemic collapse, Brown's gaffe could be construed as an attempt t divert attention from the situation. It may be somewhat far-fetched, but nothing will destroy Labour more effectively than the realisation that the government have wasted so much money and bankrupted the nation only to have deferred the crisis, for political advantage.
I've been out all day and am not totally updated on all the economic goings on, but things look ominous, and still banks haven't grasped the horror that will ravage us all, even them, if the banking system isn't cleaned up. I hear that one banker has said that a banker has no moral obligation towards a client, which is news to me, and though I am of the old-fashioned school who were so ruthlessly culled from banking, I believe it is a legal obligation.
The problem is that politicians won't discuss the politics that people want discussed - immigration - the real economic situation including the slash and burn cuts we are to face, and the serious action that needs to be taken to prevent banks taking taxpayers for a ride, again and again.
Don't our politicians read the newpapers ? Politicians give themselves a significance they don't possess. Their egos don't outweight the contempt the electorate have for them, and unless they deal with the matters that concern the electorate, the election will remain a coin toss. Watching the dismal performance of our politicians gives me a conceit I don't deserve. Dear Boris Johnson doesn't seem to understand that the soiled reputation of the City as a financial centre will do a lot more to kill it of than any attempt to regulate the tarnished mess.
I await John Prescott's comic turn tomorrow with eager anticipation. Perhaps the whole shower will perform as knock about slapstick comedy tur to try and take our minds off the whole sorry shambles that is supposed to represent a serious democratic election.
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Andrew,
if somebody who is a pensioner gets a total pension of £6,000 under the liberal tax proposals how will they benefit under the changes to the level of tax allowances. They certainly will not be £700 a year better off, or am I being stupid. I agree with the liberal proposals, I suggested them myself ages ago, but they have to be for the poorest paid, not those who do not need the money.
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146 Catch
150 Coats
I dont know if you are both being fooled by the name "final salary" into thinking that is what they get as a pension.
A public sector worker gets one eightieth of their pay for each year of service which equates to half salary for 40 years service. Hardly a kings ransom for the average pay of 25k with many well below that figure.
Catch, as for your contention that they should not get state pensions, what have they paid NI contributions for ? Are they not to have the same benefits as the rest of the NI contributors ?
Dont blame the members of adequately funded and well managed public schemes for the problems besetting other schemes caused by fraud and/or the govts siphoning off scheme funds.
Coats I agree mutual respect is a necessity but it is all to do with scale. A fund such as the West Midlands Local Authorities with 180 odd councils and other organisations belonging to it and a fund worth 6bn is always going to be able to pay better pensions than a small firm with an annuity type arrangement with an insurance/investment firm.
Just as a large private firm will pay better pensions than a small one.
It does worry me that envy of a better pension seems to be a driving force in these discussions. I can recall a time when the local authoriy emploee was paid well below the private sector but people stuck with it in part because they knew it had a pension at the end of it. Then many private firms had no pension provision. Now that to a certain extent roles have been reversed to carp about the pension seems a bit mean.
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Andrew,
ask yourself how long does it take to say the word 'bigot'. It is such a wee mo is it not. It is almost as though you could see the train crash coming, it was bound to happen at some time or another. No amount of cotton wool, or Sarah Brown, could prevent the disaster which is approaching, the dead man at the controls.
In tonights debate then I hope that somebody raises the issue of all the deferred, or delayed, taxes which are now owed to HMRC. One of the problems which I raised at the start of the banking crisis was that a company I have was investigated by the revenue. The investigation was thorough, and fair, my expenses were investigated, and agreed to, but it was stressful, for obvious reasons. Now at one time I owed them some money, which I had set aside in a sort of tax reserve account. I had made a profit and you only pay taxes if you make a profit. Therefore I put the money which was due into this separate account, so that when the money was due, it was there, no cash flow problems.
Now then during the investigation I asked my local tax office, what would happen if I had not set the money aside, that I could not pay. The answer was simple, go to your bank, borrow the money, because you will be bankrupted. What all of the candidates for PM must be asked is when will you tell HMRC to unleash the dogs of war and to get the taxes which are due, paid. When will the tax deferral scheme be closed, and those people who owe money pay it. If I was a banker I would not lend money to a company or organisation or individual to meet their tax bill, their legitimate liability. They should have set aside their earnings to pay their leitimate tax bills.
It is the same with an employer who deducts tax and national insurance from an employee and then does not pay it on to HMRC, or any VAT, which is also due. To make these deductions and then not pay it to the revenue is, well fraud, and should be subject to criminal proceedings.
I would ask the candidates this , when will the taxes which probably show in the accounts as a suspense item, due but not yet paid, and their must be a massive liability in respect of taxes due.
The other problem is the taxes which the banks pay. Now we know that they have made massive profits in the past, but now they have all these losses which they can offset against present and future losses. So, what people have to understand is that Brown actually wanted the banks to pay high wages, and massive bonuses. Why, because then the exchequer can at least get hold of some sort of taxes from the banks, the banks would struggle to avoid tax and national insurance on pay. So, lower pay, and no bonuses means well less money to the Exchequer. It was actually in the interests of the government, of the chancellor for the banks to have high wages, and massive bonuses.
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#153
I must say that it is not envy which drives me, it is the reality of the situation in respect of pensions. Let us say that there is a pension fund with massive assets, the only trouble is that it needs cash flow to pay the pensions. There are two cash flows, income, and current contributions. As soon as the income from investments is insufficient to meet the liabilities, and the workforce is reduced to the extent that there are more pensioners, than actual workers then you are in trouble. You could say that the income from gilts is good, solid, it may well be. But if you have a gilt with a high coupon, but a low yield then the price has to be above par. Now then the government redeems gilts at par, so you may have a bond which costs £120 for every £100 of stock, but has a coupon of 8%. So what will happen, eventually the price of the bond reduces until on or near the redemption date it goes to par, that is all that the government will redeem it at, so you are guaranteed to lose £20 of your capital over time. Trust me you are, you may have had the benefit of the 8% income but you have lost your capital. That is why pension annuities are so low.
As for the government they have issued billions of pounds of longer dated gilts, but they are index linked, and the index they are linked to is the Retail Prices Index, so I think that one change which will be forced on the market is that they will soon link the index linked gilts, not to the RPI, but the CPI, the Consumer Prices Index. Now they may well do this whilst the CPI gives a higher 'return' than the RPI, but over time, the CPI will give a lower return.
Browns tax changes to the pension funds have made them completely unviable, they really are, whether in the public or the private sector. As for the police, they don't have an invested pension scheme, it is met out of current contributions and local taxes, so where you have an ageing police force you have a problem, they need more police, not to patrol the streets, but to pay the pensions of that happy lot now sunning themselves in the south of Spain.
Why do you think that CPOs are not police, it is because of their pensions, trust me we really are in a mess. By the way I am not a bigot, I am Spartacus, we are all Spartacus.
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Andrew,
does not the Brown experience not give us an opportunity for him to know now how we feel. He says that his was a 'private' conversation. Now then I think we live in a surveillance society, being listened to on the grounds of national security, or CCTV cameras watching our every move.
Now what you will notice with the politicians is how many times they have conversations with their hands covering their mouths, because the cameras catch the lip movements, and there are lip readers. so, they hide their mouths behind their hands. Then there was the infamous time when Brown did not realise that it really was not a good idea to pick his nose whilst sat behind Tony Blair.
So, Brown, and Johnson, and all the others welcome to our world, welcome to the surveillance society, welcome to our world!
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Xtun
"Don’t blame the members of adequately funded and well managed public schemes for the problems besetting other schemes caused by fraud and/or the govts siphoning off scheme funds"
They are only adequately funded because they have not been subject to the same financial constraints as other schemes. People on small fixed incomes and pensions are subsidising many of these public sector schemes through their council taxes, which seems unfair.
"It does worry me that envy of a better pension seems to be a driving force in these discussions. I can recall a time when the local authority employee was paid well below the private sector but people stuck with it in part because they knew it had a pension at the end of it. Then many private firms had no pension provision. Now that to a certain extent roles have been reversed to carp about the pension seems a bit mean."
I think there is an element of truth to this, in that many years ago public services were not as well remunerated at the private sector but for the last decade or so this has not been the case and the pension funding in the public sector needs to be reviewed accordingly, with the private sector shrinking we cannot afford the present system.
It is not unusual now for people to leave the private sector for the safe havens of public sector employment.
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155 Spartacus
Will come back later with some figures. Also I think the Police pension scheme has changed recently, will check.
Have a good day.
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Good morning each & Andrew.
"Honour, honour, wherefor art thou, honour?"
"To scatter praise or blame without regard to justice is to destroy the distinction of good and evil. Many have no other test of actions than general opinion; and all are so far influenced by a sense of reputation that they are often restrained by fear of reproach, and excited by hope of honour, when other principles have lost their power."
Johnson: Rambler #136 (July 6, 1751)
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Andrew,
it might help to define a bigot:
'A bigot is a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices'
Now then I think that on the basis of the above then actually I would consider Brown to be a bigot. Brown has the opinion that this is the first global economic crisis, I would assert most strongly that it is not.
As for prejudices, with his continual reference to the bankers, is that not a prejudice, he keeps telling us that the bankers are greedy, that they have caused this, well I am sorry but he is incorrect.
As for prejudices, consider the point that people make about the BNP being racist. It is not the BNP which is occupying Afghanistan, keeping terror, that is Afghans and Pakistanis which it is what Brown has been saying, off the streets of our country. It is not the BNP which has killed tens of thousands in Adghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq. It is not the BNP which has sent our soldiers into Afghanistan and Pakistan.
As for anybody being a bigot, was it not British jobs for British workers.
I am sorry but it it is not the British people which can be accused of bigotry, I would say that there is a very strong feeling of bigotry in some parts of Britain, but actually it is not a charge which can be levelled at the English. I think that it is the lack of bigotry which makes England what it is.
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#157 menin
As you say, the public sector pensions question has become more acute since pay in the public sector has increased to equal or overtake pay in the private sector.
But there is another factor. Many private firms - particularly those of large or medium size - often had decent final salary schemes, or schemes based on average salary over the last three years of service. The start of the demise of most of these schemes can be pinpointed to the time when Brown introduced his 5 billion/year tax.
Prior to that, not only was the British pension industry amongst the best in Europe, but also there was less resentment at the public sector pension provisions. The situation has been changed by Brown's action, and the combination of pay and pension provision has become a serious point of debate.
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Andrew,
just listened to Brown on the BBC from Halesowen. Interesting, especially when one looked at the make up of the work force, not very typical of the make-up of our society, not very typical at all.
Aren't we very strange in our country, I know that yesterday was yesterday, and that tonight is tonight. But I can only hope, a forlorn hope I know, that at last we can see or hear a reaction from the audience. It is the moment when the assembled people can use their the king is in the altogether, he hasn't got any clothes. Who will be the first, actually the second, because Brown is naked, he has no clothes, he is exposed for all to see what he really is.
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Gordon is a walking disaster. Harry Worth incarnate, with the temperament of a Grizzly Bear and the character of a Stoat. Even Super Nanny would throw her hands up in despair at his self-centred and cack handed attempts to pretend to be human. His ear to ear grin after meeting the defamed lady looked as if he were auditioning for the role of Data in Star Treck and couldn't use appropriate facial expressions.
The man's only hope now is to pick up the Eddie the Eagle vote.
I have nothing but contempt for all the parties who behave as if the scandals embroiling the banking system don't exist. The time is fast approaching when some of the banks inhabiting the City should be led to the airport and waved goodbye. The attitudes and behaviour they embrace are a disgrace and make the lofty moral words uttered by politicians thoroughly hollow.
Talk about the economy - will they - and can they ? I very much doubt it.
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Andrew,
another day with no news from the front, namely some soldiers came home yesterday, but no bodies, and nobody killed, a good day for some yesterday, but then yesterday was yesterday, and now is now.
Oh, by the way the last Tory government ended in 1997, so let's not talk about all those years ago shall we, oh you do want to talk about 1997, but not yesterday, let's not talk about the past, let's talk about tomorrow. Oh you don't have a crystal ball, you have no idea what will happen tomorrow. I mean nobody, I did but who am I to know anything after all I am not a well remunerated expert, apparently saw the crash coming, well I thought that was what we paid the experts for.
In the meantime I really do hope that the audience rebels tonight, when is the right time to refuse orders.
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Holland is the world leader as regards pensions, perhaps we should take a look at how they do it. I agree that the imbalance between private and public sector pensions is a real issue and must be addressed - preferably (to the extent that financial contraints allow) by improving the former rather than hammering the latter. The bit in brackets is key though, we do need to realise that. It's an odd one, this, because the point Tun makes it's true - we've got some "politics of envy" at work here, and the people afflicted are the very ones who toss that phrase around willy nilly to put down, rather than debate, left wing ideas. Continuing that theme, they argue in this case for a "levelling down" rather than a "levelling up" - again an irony. Having said all that, I agree with Coats (and Mike and others) that it's a big issue, a real issue, and one which needs looking at. The Brown "raid on pensions" is not his finest hour but gets overstated as to the relative significance of its impact on where we are today. A touch of politics over economics there but, yes, a point worth making.
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They still do not get it.
Alexander on the news a moment ago (BBC!).
Concern about comments in Rochdale...
No. No, Gordons comments. Surely?
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@166
Pensions are indeed a thorny issue and the failure of governments of all hues to protect people who have no option but to invest in private pension schemes is lamentable.
I would find it difficult to put the case for investing in pensions to a young person who is already struggling to pay off student loans and for their accommodation.
It is fair to say there is some pensions envy but there is also some reason for it - to accrue a modest private pension low-middle earners have to save and invest amounts that they cannot possibly afford and then they are at the mercy of the markets.
People with some financial wherewithal are able to make complimentary investments so that they have a balanced income on retirement but for the vast majority of low-middle earners they neither have the financial nous or ability to pay for alternative investments.
Though generally against big government, I think this is such a serious issue for the future that when the economic situation improves there is a case for compulsory contributions from both employees and employers [maybe an NI hike in the distant future] and maybe low risk pensions could be administered by a National Bank. If people choose to pursue higher returns at the whims of the markets that is their prerogative but they would do so without the protection a National Bank scheme could offer.
It may not be a subject for now as there are other pressures on the economy but at some stage the pensions issue must be addressed.
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What you won't be hearing tonight.
"Whichever party wins this election will have to inflict such painful austerity measures on the British population that they will soon find themselves out of power for generation. ..... the words of Mervyn King, Bank of England Governor."
It's as if the electorate judge our leader based on their flower arranging skills. Why are we going oo tolerate these dummies pontificating lies to us as if they are Holy seers - when they are just a bunch of fakirs of the most dubious sort. No wonder we are allured most by their 'X Factor' because there's precious little substance on show by any of them.
Maybe NHS prescribed heroin will be the way out for the masses. Perhaps the Tories have a tribal reason to defend bankers, so what's Gordon's excuse ? For Gordon then to attempt to play the class card was bizarre as he has acted as if under a banking spell.
The Land of the Free and Home of the Brave, and source of the Ponzi Scam, has woken up to the toxic banking mechanism now poisoning every attempt to get the world economy stable - and our Sleeping Beauties will talk utter drivel to us. Ed Balls was promising extra funding for child care. Is he quite insane ? Cancer care was always Gordon's dreamland fairytale vision, taken to an extreme that anyone who has suffeed the experience knows is nothing but cynical exploitation. I seriously suspect that the words 'cancer' and 'care' will no longer appear together in the NHS we will see develop.
The more politicians encourage the population to live in their fantasy haze, the greater the backlash they will suffer when the smokescreen lifts. If Gordon hasn't totally trashed the Labour Party, perhaps we will get a hung Parliament, and then politicians will be in the spotlight and under scrutiny as never before.
May 6th will go down as the day reality dawns, and the pretence will end. Sensible policies will prevail - withdrawal from Afghanistan - Savage control of banks - tax hikes - savage public sector cuts of jobs, pay, pension and services. I think it's referred to as a Nuclear Dawn, but waiting for the Tooth Fairy is no longer an option, unless politicians want our next government to effectively be the IMF.
Tonight's debate should influence no one, because it will only represent the avoidance of reality which has bedevilled our politicians and brought the country to the brink of ruin. After all, these are the men whose greater interest was always in pillaging our Treasury than looking after it. Three Prince Charmings and each one a 'dog'.
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Catch
Saga
Coats
Mike-Jay
Feel a bit like Gordon Brown, wish I hadnt said I would come back with some figures for public sector pensions.
The last ,2007, Actuarial valuation of thw West Midlands Pension Fund is good reading if you are an actuary otherwise it is headache material.
I dont pretend to understand the valuation , it appears to be valued at 7,513 million which I think normal people call 7.5 billion. But the actuaries warn of a 1.6 billion deficit !!!! The income and expenditure ballance out with an end figure of 8.4 billion.
Of much more interest was the make up of the fund, its membership and pension payments.
There are 342 employers in the fund. Councils, police and fire civilian staff. Univeristies, Age Concern, housing Trusts and a lot of ltd companies. I dont know the criteria for joining and the infor is vague "local authorities and other organisations that have chosen to participate".
There are 105,352 employee contributors , 6% of their pay.
Their average pay, 15,963, hardly big bucks eh ?
There are 49,347 pensioners
Their average pension 4,043pa
Their average age 68
There are 9,127 widow/widower pensioners
Their average pension 2,334pa
Their average age 74
Is that the level of pensions you all expected ? Or did you expect more ?
Catch . The police pension is still unfunded but has changed, in 2006. Prior to this it was two thirds final salary after 30 years service or at 50 with 25 years service. Now it is half final salary after 35 years service and the cops contribute 9.5% of their salary. Seems like a worse deal to me ?
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Just had a quick look in the other place. Over 1000 posts in just over 24hrs on Nicks piece about Browns "biggot" moment.
Still think the Sun did the best headline: Gillian only popped out for a loaf and came back with BROWN TOAST.
This will beat Jennifer's ear.
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#169 GP
The nearest we can get to the present situation - within recent memory - is the 1979 economic crisis and the IMF involvement. The solution is likely to be something along the same lines, although there were other, different factors then, such as the union problem and the Falklands interlude. Later, of course, there was the ERM disaster (although Thatcher was dead against entry and Brown was in favour).
Mervyn King's prediction could more or less be applied to those 18 years - the only reason it took so long was the weakness of the opposition. But at the end of it all, public services were underfunded and there were other social problems, yet the economy, by 1997, was back on track.
The likelihood is that we shall again have to suffer the worst aspects of the 'Thatcher years' if the Tories are elected, and government by the IMF if Labour achieve office.
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The British Public have got to understand that this Global Bigot Crisis started with a few disatisfied grandmothers in the USA and has spread from there. There is nothing we can do about it on our own and that's why the leaders of the world will be summoned to a crisis meeting in Rochdale. President Obama and I have spoken on the telephone but I have told him this is no time for a novice.
We went into this bigot crisis stronger than any country in the G20 and we will be the first to emerge from it because I introduced doom and bust.
Finally,I want to assure the 35 million bigots out there that I am really one of them and that I am the only man to fix the Global Bigot Crisis.
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170 Xtun
According to an article on the www.thisismoney.co.uk website Axa insurance calculated and I quote verbatim, so I don't mislead:-
" 25 year-old woman working in the private sector would have to contribute almost a quarter of her annual salary to receive a pension on par with her public sector counterpart.
This is more than double the benchmark 10% figure generally recommended for private sector contributions.
If the worker did save 10% into a pension scheme, she would require a 7.7% pay rise every year for 40 years - which means earning a staggering £450,000 a year at 65 - to achieve a comparable pension."
I certainly am not seeking to deny public sector workers a fair pension but there appears to be a pensions apartheid in favour of the public sector or that at least is the perception.
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Andrew
I am fed up of hearing that a compehensive spending review could not be provided before the election because of the state of flux in our economy or that the situation is so difficult to predict. Any businessman worthy of his salt knows that in times of uncertainty it is of paramount importance to prepare spending reviews and plans. It's basic commonsense that even those managing a household budget would apply. Are we out here to abandon basic financial disciplines because we do not know the truth about the state of the economy or whether we will be in a job next month? Come on Alistair Darling et al were not all fools!
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174 Coats
Catch
I do not dispute those figures but what I want to know is why ?
AXA is a moneymaking concern so its first loyalty may be to itself. This may be one reason they cannot match a dedicated investment fund that started in 1922.
From my limited research today I have learned a lot. I just had a look at Devon Council fund to see if Catch would find anything of interest. There are 35 non council employers in the scheme. Including NCP and Amey. To my mind this blurs the distinction twixt public and private and perhaps more employers should see if they can be admitted to their local scheme.
Catch. Have a look at Devons fund. See what you think.
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
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Xtun
I cannot vouch for the veracity or independence of the article and know it is difficult to make like for like comparisons but I have read similar articles elsewhere.
Putting the whole public/private issue to one side, I passionately believe that good pension provision holds the key for the long term social care for the elderly. Merely trying to claw back money from the assets of the elderley for their care either upfront or retrospectively is a short term solution, we want people to be in a position to be able to provide for themselves as much as possible in their retirement.
I fear this may involve some form of compulsion eventually, as people are unwilling to take this responsibility on themselves,
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Andrew
Am I cracking up?? Have I really just heard Nick Clegg on the Prime Ministerial debates say he is not proposing an amnesty for illegal immigrants? I am sure I did but I must be wrong as last week he argued it was such a good idea. Please help - is it me? It must be me because he said it earnestly with a straight face.
Oh hang on a minute he just said he is going to have an amnesty. So now it's clear. He is going to have an amnesty - no he is not - yes he is. I'm losing the will to live.
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Dear Sags - not a coherant thought in your head but always ready with the insult!
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