Gordon Brown in the firing line
The government is on the back foot over Afghanistan as casualties soar -- and suddenly it is Gordon Brown himself who is in the firing line.
Yesterday on the show we talked about how Chancellor Brown had cut the budget for new troop-carrying Chinooks -- the kind we're currently short of in Helmand -- by £1.5bn way back in 2004.
Tory shadow defence spokesman Liam Fox says the decision has had "disastrous consequences" for the British Army's ability to move troops in relative safety. When I spoke to defence minister Bill Rammell yesterday he did not deny the budget for helicopters had been cut five years ago -- and at a time when spending everywhere else in the public sector was soaring.
Andrew Neil and Bill Rammell on Monday's Daily Politics:
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This morning The Times has more questions for the PM to answer: it claims that Mr Brown rejected requests from the top brass for 2,000 more troops, settling for sending only 700 -- and only on a temporary basis until the Afghan elections are over. The Times says this was "the cheapest of four options" put to the PM by military chiefs in March. The "temporary" nature of the 700 extra who were deployed will be reviewed in October. I suspect it has become politically impossible for the government to reduce our Afghan commitment, unless it is part of an overall withdrawal (which is not on the cards).
These are serious developments for the PM because the Tories and some in the military are trying to build the case that, as Chancellor, Mr Brown was always short-changing the military, despite the government's propensity to get involved in wars. "He simply resented have to stump up for Tony Blair's wars," one senior military figure said to me.
So the PM faces two potentially damaging accusations, which his critics say are costing lives in Helmand. First, that he cut spending on Chinooks, even though at the time the National Audit Office said that the military was desperately short of them. Our troops are paying the price for that now, say critics.
Also that Mr Brown took the "cheapest" option when it came to reinforcements. Indeed The Times in an editorial makes an even blunter claim: "Mr Brown and the Treasury overruled advice from the chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force as well as his defence secretary and insisted that no more than 700 extra men would be sent out -- and then only for the duration of the Afghan election campaign."
I know some of this was aired in the Commons yesterday between Mr Brown and David Cameron. But I can't help but feel it will be discussed again during the final PMQs of the summer tomorrow.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~04~RS~)
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It would be justice at its best if it were to be the wars engaged in by this Government that bring it down. Setting aside for a moment their disastrous record on the economy this dreadful man in the shape of Brown, it seems by your report, allowed our young people to die for no reason except his petty argument with Blair and his need to prop up his voting base with taxpayers money and popular policies by using the money that should have gone to our troops. If this is true by denying the troops their right to proper equipment and troops on the ground, he has most surely broken the covenant between Government and armed forces.
It is not within my capability to decribe how much I dislike Brown and everything he stands for. He pretends to care about the young, how would he feel if his children did not live to see their 20th birthday.
It is just a pity that Blair is beyond our grasp as well at the moment because he must surely have been aware of the situation in my opinion.
How much is the cost of human life these days, it seems it is becoming very cheap indeed.
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Andrew
Can you please expand the debate on Afghanistan by going back to the pre-invasion situation, The Bush administration's negotiations with the Taliban, the Pakistani ISI and their connection with the CIA and the Taliban, Karzai's relationship with UNOCAL, the CentGas project and the CIA, the assassination of his leadership rival Abdul Haq and numerous connections between top Bush people and companies like ENRON. Ask questions the other MSM aren't asking. The current investigation into the demise of ENRON is likely to reveal a few truths on Afghanistan and Iraq, keep an eye on them Andrew, that is if they aren't quickly buried. Put some tough questions to the Foreign Office as well as the MoD.
In short, is the reason we are in Afghanistan to make our streets safer or are we continuing to honour an agreement to support the US in carrying out their agenda?
We are starting to see a pattern develop over Iraq, rendition and torture. Do we agree with what Blair signed us up for?
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MPs deserve long holidays? They always seem to be on holiday, they go on more holidays than my doctor, and thats really stretching it.
Looking at the parliament channel they certainly don't spend much time in the house of commons chamber. And my MP certainly wasnt attentive, or replied at all when I enquired about the loss of exam adult education classes in my area, so they are not spending all that time in their community.
When will politicians (and government workers in general) realise that that most people in the private sector have 4 weeks holiday, and pretty much everyone at more than a basic level in the private sector is required to be attached to their mobile phone to show how professional and committed they are.
Politicians want votes, and they have chosen a career where they are in the public spotlight, so they can't look like that have huge holidays that the rest of the public cant have.
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I gather that due to criticism of the MPs holidays that there is now to be a special debate on Afghanistan on Thursday. There must also be a debate immediately after the Afghan elections which are due to be held next month. Only yesterday the PM stated that he would look into troop levels in Afghanistan after the elections in August, I do not expect any decision to be delayed until some time in October. Not one more soldier should be sent without parliament voting on this important issue.
In the meantime the inquiry into the death of Mr Mousa will continue, it is because of the treatment given to that gentleman that the military are now thankfully constrained as to what they can and cannot do.
At least they are having elections in Afghanistan, something which I think Brown is now regretting not having held when he should have done. He has no authority, he has no mandate, he must resign. Interesting that Brown has issued a dictat from the bunker saying that he wanted ministers to work whilst on their extended holidays. Just what is Brown going to do about announcing any deaths during the holiday period, formal statements, Youtube, or special broadcasts, we should be told!
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#4 TAG
During the Falklands War, I remember that all anouncements of ships lost and soldiers/sailors injured or killed were made by a spokesperson at the MoD whose name I cannot recall. At that time PMQs was not televised and I think not even on the radio (?) However, I do not recollect if the spokesman read out names of the dead or if they were listed in a press release.
I am of an opinion that service people's deaths should be announced in a dignified manner and convey respect and gratitude, something which is lacking in the parliamentary chamber at the best of times. Listening to this PM mangling the pronunciation of the names is hardly edifying.
Perhaps an alternative would be for the highest ranked Army Service Chaplain of whatever denomination to perform this task, which would remove the political element but retain the respect and dignity, that such a sombre event requires. Such officers in the field do cater for other religious denominations other than their own, and even troops who are aetheist or hold little religious belief value their contribution.
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Never was Oscar Wilde's quotation more appropriate:
"The true definition of a cynic is someone who knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing"
By his lies and obfuscation of the facts concerning funding for our overseas follies, Brown has shown himself to be a cynic of the highest order.
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There is still no reasonable excuse for British or allied troops being in Afghanistan in the first place. The pundits believe thre are upwards of 100,000 "Taleban " and associated fighters on the ground in Afghanistan , plus a reservoir of the same again in the middle east and Pakistan. So are all of them going to be killed , or is the army still trying to " win hearts and minds " to keep the Asian vote supporting Nu Labour ? Either the allied forces have carte blanche to destroy the enemy completely whatever the method, or the war is a pointless exercise. Negotiation with fanatics is impossible, and when, as has to happen sometime, the allies pull out, the fanatics will again take over , probably ably assisted by the now well armed Afghan army, which will change sides at the drop of a hat if it's personnel wish to keep their heads attached to their bodies. There will of course be several thousand government officials and " collaborators" who will have to be hurriedly brought to Britain and given assylum, because their lifes will be forfeit if they remain in Afghanistan. This is assuming that half of them are not hedging their bets and already holding hands with the Taleban , as is the way of politicians. Fighting a pointless war in Afghanistan is a total waste of resources and young soldiers' lives; nothing can be achieved, it does not make security in Britain any better and unless the problem of our porous borders is addressed, the very people who wish us harm will continue to move freely within the country and the risk of terrorism will rise. The troops must be brought home sooner , rather than later; it is better for Gordon Brown to lose face than for any more young soldiers to lose their lives. If Afghanistan becomes a threat in the future, and considering the amount of high tech surrveilance equipment availiable to keep an eye on them, then the problem can again be cauterised from the air with minimal risk to service personnel. If the Taleban want Afghanistan , let them have it but let them also deal with the consequences of returning their country to the dark ages.
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I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case. The bottom line of the main political parties in this country is always cold hard cash. Squeeze it out of us, squander it on pet projects, and suck the rest up for themselves!
Scotch egg, anyone?
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The failure to provide the necessary level of troops required/requested; the failure to provide the level of equipment needed/requested; and the desire for the army to make do with wholly inappropriate types of vehicle (Snatch LR's) is nothing short of murderous.
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Andrew
What has happened to young Robinson? It's gone awfully quiet on his blog page.
Mystic Meg reckons he is waiting for the Commons Culture Committee and Home Affairs Committee to interview Coulson so he can take up the cudgels again.
Re your interview with Rammell, I hope you understood what he wanted to make very clear...because I didn't.
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It can only be a matter of time before Brown accuses Cameron and Clegg of seeking to score party political points out of the tragic deaths of out brave troops.
He will hope to move the spotlight away from his placing our troops low on his list of priorities,and the consequent failure to equip and protect them, and on to what he will seek to paint as the opportunistic behaviour of opposition politicians.
He will seek to rate pointing to his failings and their fatal consequences as a greater sin than the failings themselves.
Still, he will continue to kick of PMQs with his expressions of sympathy, gratitude and admiration for the fallen. Helicopters, extra troops and robust combat vehicles are dear. Talk is cheap.
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#5
You are of course correct, the PM mangles the names, then they all start shouting at each other. I have said before it is just disgusting, the MPs don't get it, the Speaker should say silence please, order, order, you have just announced these deaths and now you are shouting at each other. Mind you Blair started this nonsense, can you imagine doing this in WWI, 20,000 names in a day after the Somme.
With the reception of the dead at Wootton Bassett, where were the MPs, the government ministers, the PM. They are gutless, sorry got to get some votes. In the meantime now where will this end, will all the other dead be brought back to the UK and given this sort of 'welcome'. This is not a just war, this is so wrong, it must be ended, the soldiers who have died will never be forgotten, but what about the injured, those not only physically injured but those who will suffer from mental problems caused by what they have seen, and heard. The same with those from Iraq, what about tem.
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I can't say I enjoyed your mauling of Bill Rammell yesterday since his non answers and spin maid me feel sick. But thank you for putting him and his area of responsibility in the spotlight. I suppose he only has lies to sell so we shouldn't be too hard on him, but all the 60% increase nonsense and throwing around massive numbers as investment when they are just as likely to be reductions on what was promised is just morally bankrupt.
I suppose it just means that defence is no different to any other are of mismanagement by this government. It's bad enough when it's people's livelihoods and the country's economic prospects on the line but when it young soldier's lives, how do these people sleep at nights?
With the country at war, we really should be putting our best foot forward and leaving no stone unturned to make things better on the front line. Bob Ainsworth. Is that it? Is that really the best we can do. Pathetic!
I'll be relieved when MPs go on holiday. They're completely feckless so the dereliction of duty when we have troops under fire will make little difference to the outcomes - The troops are on their own - Government has abandoned them. At least we won't have to listen to their lies and tired excuses any more.
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Reading about the upcoming Afghani elections.. although foreign opinion on a likely result is divided, if Karzai scrapes home there is real concern about the disillusionment and anger with Karzai amongst many Afghans and the possibility of post-election violence. If it kicks off our troops will have more than just the Taliban to worry about. They will need every helicopter available.
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I watched on TV the sad scenes at RAF Lyneham,followed by the people of
Wootten Bassett and the grieving families showing respect,admiration and
love for the fallen.It saddened me as always,but that sadness is mixed with
great anger,as I wonder how many of those lost lives were caused by the lack of proper equipment.Why does Brown think that he knows better than the
chiefs of the services? He has no military experience,so once again it comes down to money,something which Brown firmly believes is his forte.
Yes,tomorrow at PMQs he will read out the names of the fallen in his usual incompetent way,and then will promptly forget it as he strives to
win cheap political points from Cameron and treats Clegg with derision.
No doubt Brown will drone on about "the chain of terror reaching from
Afghanistan to Britain".This appears to be his latest soundbite.Rather
reminiscent of the WMDs and 45 minutes scare story we were fed before Iraq methinks.
As has been said on this blog,who will read out the names of the next batch of dead soldiers whilst Brown et al are on holiday? Because sadly
there will be more.
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thousands of young British boys ... children, a lot of them ... who should be back here, learning one or two things as they grow up, maybe having a few lagers on a Friday night, every now and then getting into a spot of less than catastrophic trouble ... but instead of that, they're roaming cluelessly around an alien country on an alien continent, killing and maiming the inhabitants of that country, and getting killed and maimed themselves - it's a stupid and awful state of affairs, for which one man ... Tony Blair ... with his monstrous ego, bears the lion's share of the blame - the equipment is a secondary issue, we just shouldn't be there
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Has this country ever had such a useless, incompetent, lying, deceitful, woefully inadequate shambles of a government as this one? Every single thing they touch they foul up. Every announcement is 'economical with the truth'. Every quotation of statistics is guaranteed to be a lie. You cannot trust any of them. Half the cabinet is unelected. We'd be better of in Zimbabwe!
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Andrew,
it is brilliant that one of the banks baled out by the American government has now reported profits of $3.4 billion. Now why can't the banks whci Brown baled out make that sort of money. Always the same with any labour government, they have nationalised an industry and rewarded failure. The banks are running this country, not the government.
Brown has saved the banks, not, but he hopes that they will be resurrected, it would seem so awful that the soldiers who have died for Blair and Brown cannot be like wise-resurrected.
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I am not sure as to whether we should be at war in Afghanistan or not. I don't think that we have been given sufficient information to make a reasoned judgement.
If however we accept that the war is justified, our Government advised by the Ministry of Defence, should provide the troops and equipment more than sufficient to do the job. War is one of those issues that you just cannot cut corners in terms of cost.
I am already very angry over the Governments wrecking of our economy and their ruining my retirement planning. If it transpires that they have sent our troops into war, effectively with one arm tied behind their back, my anger goes off the scale. I hope that they can live with their consciences.
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"overruled advice from the chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force as well as his defence secretary " If true, well fine but Brown must take the consequences. His judgement and his priorities have been shown to be hopelessly flawed.
But is it true? Quite frankly if it is not true and the opposite is the case, ie that the defence chiefs offered alternatives, then THEY should resign. They should only offer options which are all suitable. I am happy to 'dis' Brown, but what right have the defence chiefs got to offer inferior options?
I must say I see a trapdoor opening up under Brown on this one. He has mucked up everything - really he has mucked up EVERYTHING - he has touched. Go look it up. And now he has mucked up something he cannot cover up, cannot whisk away with smoke and mirrors (although the 84% increase in flying time was the usual dosreputable effort).
Bodybags.
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I have listened to the debate over the last few days on TV etc about Afghanistan. The one thing that does stand out is nobody proposes an alternative strategy.
I hear a lot of people say we shouldnt be in Afghanistan but fail to say what they think will happen then. Are we to turn Europe into a fortress to try to deny access to terrorists? Should we then adopt the strategy that they took during WW1 and WW2 by interning those who could be deemed potential terrorists? Even if we did adopt all these strategies and more would it stop terrorists attacking us?
What will be the consequences of withdrawal? Do we think those who have attacked us will leave us alone in grateful thanks? Once we have withdrawn will a nuclear Pakistan be more vulnerable to destabilisation from Al Qaeda and Taliban forces? What happens if Pakistan becomes so destabilised under those circumstances that it falls to Islamic extremists?
What is clear is that many Muslim people feel and felt they have a grievance against the West even before the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. When you look around the world it is easy to understand why they may be of that opinion. Whether it is in Palestine or Iran as excellently outlined by the BBCs documentarys Iran and Britain and Iran and the West our involvement in these places has historically been about self interest.
Only when we begin to listen and recognize that these grievances are real then begin to tackle them will we find a resolution to these wars.
Obama's speech in Egypt a few weeks ago was I feel a watershed in the relationship between the Mid east and the West I feel. He must deliver on things like stopping the expansion of Israeli settlements though. Soaring rhetoric no matter how wonderful to listen and empty unfullfilled promises will only fuel the anger towards us.
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Saga
Agree with most of that but we are there - how do we extricate ourselves without endangering the Afghanis?
We do have a responsibilty to avoid a bloodbath on our withdrawal.
Possibly we should not have been there in the first place but we are and the funding for equipment is relevant, we should not have started something we did not have the will to see through......which brings us back to TB.
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#21 SA
A lot of that worries me too.
We are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Nice to have you back.
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The Taliban are not Al-Kaida. They are Afgahn Nationalists who are seen by the Afgahn public as freedom fighters fighting against an enemy occupation. We will not defeat them, so more than ever it is crucial that our political leaders seek, as a matter of urgency , some sort of political end-game.
Brown and co. have betrayed our troops by failing to provide them with all that they need to survive this futile conflict. The government pays lip-service with weasel words about their determination to give our troops all the resources they need. Andrew was right to give the minister a mauling - he tried to blind us with statistics and looked hopelessly out of his depth.
The government should give the military all that they ask for, or, alternatively, seek to get out asap. without a total oss of face.
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coats @ 22
how do we get out? ... well, that's a good question - there's very few things I know less about than military matters, and so I have no bright ideas - I guess we're pretty much yoked to America, and can't act unilaterally - Blair really has stuffed Brown when you think about it, hasn't he? ... in more ways than one ... a lethal legacy
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Good evening each & Andrew.
How do we get out?
Easy.
(re)Define winning.
Job done...Next?
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#25 Saga
Like you I don't know the answer but it feels intrinsically wrong to walk away from our responsibilities
Blair's timing was perfect leaving Brown to take the flak.
Love or loathe Blair he was the master of timing.
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Ummmm
TB is a psychopathic, congenital liar. (source? B Marshall-Andrews & others that know TB)
It is ever problematic; this dealing with (dodgy)barristers, super-slick marketing men and other masters of spin. This type do not sail close to the truth but sail ever closer to the lie.
At one time a man was employed in Rome to whisper to the emperor to remind him that he was but human.
With NuL sycophants only need apply.
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Only 28 posts in approx 14 hours, that says something.
Not sure what, most posts if only 28, seem to have covered the disasterous situation our forces are in and nobody knows the answer.
Blair and Brown have much to answer for.
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Ah Yes. PMQs. I can't wait for the next gripe-ing installment, where the Caped Crusader and the Boy Wonder take on the evil Riddler. It really is comic-book stuff stometimes !
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As for Gordon Brown, Afghanistan and the choppers, that issue shows why GB shouldn't really be PM.
1) He has taken some bad decisions in the past - not just the choppers, we can include things like "light touch regulation" etc.
2) Now those decisions are coming home to roost, there's literally no defence...!
We desperately need a PM who hasn't got all the baggage from the bad decisions that were taken previously, over 12 years at or very near the top of a corrupt/failing Government...
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Morning all
#29
Have a look at AN's previous blog entry and you will see that the blog was ahead of this news and a lot was discussed / framed.
#21
I agree that few alternative strategies are being presented and I also do not have an answer. The problem with the terrorist angle is that there are training camps all over the world. Shut down those in Afghanistan and they will appear elsewhere - Somalia for instance. In my humble opinion the terrorists are produced from an anti-west ideology. We cannot fight this ideology with weapons and in fact we are reinforcing it. Therefore, we need an exit strategy but one that involves reconstruction of the damage we have wrought and re-connection with the "east". Not telling them the way of the west is best but respecting their cultures.
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Andrew and all
The govn and GB in particular want to park the helicopter issue but it must be held up as an example. It is all about responsibility. I did not see the G20 policed by a dozen PCSOs so I do not see why we should have gone into 2 wars without adequate equipment. I still do not know whether there are 60% more choppers in Afghanistan. Boring? Yes, but it again highlights the appalling use of statistics by this government. Oh, and I believe the 8 chinooks bought in 2004 are still not ready! Are these part of the 60%?
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Andrew,
I have requested via the Number 10 petitions site for an inquiry into the situation in Afghanistan, and I will tell you why.
It all goes back to WWI. How on earth did Europe end up in the first global war. One minute there was almost mutiny in Ireland, the government of the day thought that there was trouble brewing, the next minute almost we are at war. There was no Treaty which got us there, there may have been agreements but no treaty as there was with say Poland in WWII. It was based on those nasty Germans invading Belgium, only trouble is that any serious historian would see that the French were also up to their tricks, Luxumbourg, little Luxembourg had gone but we went in because of Belgium.
Now then, consider this. Europe soon realised that the Great War was an awful mistake and that they had better bring out documents to show how on earth they had got into this situation. Books were published justifying the actions of the governments.
So here is a list:
The French Yellow Book
The Belgian Grey Book
The German White Book
The Russian Orange Book
The Serbian Blue Book
The British Documents on the Origin of the War
Some of these were hot off the press almost as soon as the war started because they had to show that everything that could be done had been done to prevent this terrible war, with the massive loss of life in the early days.
Then it almost stopped. The soldiers just sat in their trenches. They just sat there. So the politicians would then tell the generals plan an offensive, we've got all these soldiers, we've got these things called tanks, we've spent on arms for the soldiers, they've got the bullets, and the shells. We've spent all this money on the navy, all we've had is the battle of Jutland, and now those nasty Germans won't come out and fight, so that was a waste, because we've got huge battle squadrons and they use those submarines and all we see is our ships being sent to the bottom of the sea with the loss of those sailors.
Now before I continue just listened to General Dannet on the Today programme. The push, the pool of helicopters, the new buzz word. There is a pool of equipment and so we've flown to this forward base in an American helicopter. Hey when I went worked in a bank in the City we had pool cars, so that if yours was in the garage with a mechanical problem, then we could use a pool car, so it's ok. We've got no helicopters so we will use the American one, how much does it cost for a British General, who is soon to retire by the way, to be flown in an American Black-Hawk helicopter with imbedded British journalist.
Now then there is a formal document which exists where we have an agreement with the Afghan government, after all we were apparently invited in by the government, so no government invites in people without an agreement, a formal document signed by the relevant authority. This agreement must come into the public domain. It will explain what we can and cannot do, whose orders do our soldiers follow.
So as I have hinted at before Dannet is soon to retire, how has he allowed this situation to deteriorate, why has he kept silent until now. Why was the journalist who was with Dannet told on air that you are following your brief very well. I got the impression that Sarah Montague had been given the questions for Dannet to answer only she went outside that, brilliant, and on air.
Why no more deaths, suddenly it has gone quiet. We've had the funerals. So with the push why no more. I think that orders have gone out from Number 10, I will not want to read out the names of the dead on wednesdays while I am on holiday. I need a break, so please tell the troops on the ground that be careful, in fact don't do anything, fire a few shots, have a word with the war lord, oh we're here for the day just so those folk at home can see some of the action, but then back to base.
This is the last PMQs before the holidays, so I want us to have a good break, so anybody dies I don't want to know until after wednesdays PMQs. I won't read out any more names.
Call me a cynic but there is no point in our occupation any more. We've lost. As Dannet leaves so should the British. We've lost, Obama will announce the end of American involvement before the next election. Brown is just leaving it to our next administration to sort it out. He's gutless, the most shameful PM this country has ever had. As for parliament, nothing more can be said, go on off on your holidays. Why did none of you attend the funerals, why send Prince Edward, who flunked it in the marines, rather than William, or Harry of 'we do bad things to bad people'.
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xTunbridge 29
Only 28 posts I think reflects what a difficult issue Afganistan is for not only the public but for us on here as well. Most of us including me do not have the expertise to decide what can be done now we are involved in this battle. The public also seem very divided about their feelings towards the situation in Afganistan. I think part of this attitude is due to repsect for our troops and constantly saying they should withdraw is not good for their moral.
I can say I do not believe we should have been in Afhanistan in the first place. I can say that it is a crime that our troops have not got the right equipment. I can say that I think it is a war that we cannot afford and in my opinion cannot be won. Its far too costly in lives and money for a small Country like Britain. I also do not see why it is the British and the Americans that are doing all the fighting, if this is a joint venture with other Countries why are these two Countries the only ones doing all the fighting. I question the use of the war because I cannot for the life of me understand how this will stop training camps in Pakistan. In fact to me since all this began Pakistan is more unstable. We seem to be spending an awful lot of money in aid to Pakistan persuading them to protect their own Country from terrorists. A lot of our problems in Britain seem to stem from home grown terrorists and therefore is it our foreign policy which has caused much of the alienation of our own people. There are a lot of questions in my mind but I do not have the definitive answer because I do not have the knowledge to answer them.
Perhaps if we had a Government we could trust and they would be honest about what our aims and exit stragegy are in Afghanistan we could move to more understanding of what is to be achieved before we withdraw. However I fear the decision may be made for us in the end as the money to execute this war may not be available in the furture.
In the meantime until these questions are answered we will continue to see young people die and I will wonder what they are dying for. I cannot imagine dying at this young age, it is all very well for people to say 'oh but they were doing the job they loved' as an excuse for death. However I do not believe anyone should lay down their life unless it is absolutely necessary and in this case I do not know that it is.
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Regarding an exit strategy, maybe we are starting from the wrong place. The geographical map of Afghanistan was drawn up by European Colonial powers, bunching up various tribal factions together who quite plainly on a good day just do not like each other. We can try and impose a western democracy, but the real issue is the tribal system. Even the Taleban are aware that they are not welcome in the north say.
What if the country was split up into republics along tribal lines? The country as a whole has proven to be ungovernable whoever has been in charge. Like a lot of these countries life is good in the capital cities, 5 star hotels etc (where do you think the aid workers from the dept of international Aid and dev stay?) but the rural areas are treated poorly. I suspect devolved governance would work a lot better than the centralised option.
What is very worrying is that the Talebs are becoming expert in making IED's more and more destructive. We will soon reach the point that no armour can withstand the blasts, without causing injury or death to those inside the vehicles. The parallels with Vietnam are uncanny farmers in the rice paddy fields by day and Vietcong tunnel rats by night; taleb farmers in their villages watching coalition troops whilst preparing to lay more IEDs.
I say divvy up the country by tribal lines and boogie out. The coalition is a joke, the French won't go out of camp, the Germans cannot go out in the dark. Clearly only the US has the willpower to see this through. We cannot expect the Army to do the job without all the tools and total commitment from the government.
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Success in Afghanistan
What would it look like? What do we expect to happen to the Taliban? Are we talking genocide?
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#37
what we need is a general with the guts to say that the only solution is to use everything at our disposal, we've done it to one country we can do it to another. Let's nuke them. The justification for dropping bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki was that it actually saved lives. That the Japanese will fight to the death, that they are fanatical, and lot's of our soldiers would die, so, let's drop the atomic bomb on them.
Why actually did the Americans not immediately drop nuclear bombs on the Russians. They were 'the enemy' they hated the communists, so why not win the war when they could. Just as the Germans made the mistakes which enabled the evacuation of Dunkirk, and the subsequent defeat of the Nazis, so the Americans and the British should have destroyed Russia whilst they had the chance.
Same with Afghanistan. The British and Americans could have solved the problem of Afghanistan when they first went in, they had right and justice, and the locals, on their side. Only they blew it. They wanted Iraq, WMDs. That is why Bush and Blair should be charged with war crimes, for as long as the roam the planet then there will never be peace. I regard them as war criminals, of waging an illegal war, of waging a war of ggression. They are the criminals, they should be bought to justice, as for Brown, why he just carried the money bag, he is irrelevant. But he too is guilty, it is time for the equivalent of Nurembourg, only in the Hague. Why do you think we hear nothing any more of George Bush, he dare not leave the safety of America for fear that somebody will do the right thing and arrest him.
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Andrew,
So where were the media when these budget cuts were taking place? They were all flagged up at the time
What kind of scrutiny has this government been placed under as it rail roaded its legislation through parliament?
Have the media woken to the public mood about the fine young men being brought home to their final resting places?
Why is there no official ceremony, no official representation? Why has it taken the closing of the village, and the people to stand on the sides of the road to welcome home our dead as heroes to make the media "see" what is happening? Is it a sign that the government/media is so out of touch?
...and the worst sin of all, the refusal to publish the figures for the number wounded and seriously injured.
Will the inquiries into the adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan be the concrete boots that ensures that NuLiebour will never reach the surface to breathe again?
Kudos to Andrew for picking up the baton, but the delay of 4 years could be seen as complicit in the death of our soldiers.
Ever noticed during the PM's visits to the front line that the troops don't carry their firearms?
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Good morning each & Andrew.
#38
Churchill was so frustrated by the lack of the effectiveness of RAF bombing; why, when the planes came to bomb the settlements the Afghans would just walk out into the fields. A cat-and-mouse-game ensued.
He, Churchill, considered Mustard Gas but was talked out of it.
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Andrew,
just as the media could be accused of being complicit in the cover up of Iraq and Afghanistan I think that our schools and universities can also be shown to be part of the proble. Let's say that you are a University, you now rely on government funding, for research etc.. and you are told if you have tutors who might stir up trouble then get rid of them. Give them early retirement, make them an offer they can't refuse, buy them off. We don't want trouble on the campus so don't stir things up.
One of the problems after WWI was that the former soldiers took up jobs as teachers, they experienced the trenches, the waste, the horrors of war, so what did their students learn, that's right that war does not work. So, there were unforeseen results from the war, they saw the injustice of making Germany pay. The Germans in WWI were just like our soldiers, they saw the way in which the profiteers at home made money, that some people became very rich from the war. And for what. Why the deaths, so why is there not much noise from the universities, they've been bought off. They have become emasculated. There is no resistance to the occupation of Afghanistan, give the plebs a parade, give them drums and flags and bugles, they will never get to the reality, that this is a corrupt, bankrupt decrepit country, a third world country with a wonderful BBC, who only told the truth over WMD.
Too many people are in receipt of money from this government, call it a QUANGO if you like, but do you know of turkeys voting for Christmas.
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Andrew,
no deaths from Afghanistan announced today, so far. Why not, what are they doing, why are they not fighting the enemy, surely we can't be fighting and losing nobody. How is that there are no IED going off. What is happening? So we're advancing without losses, Brown should say today that we have advanced fifty yards, that the enemy are in retreat, we, and our allies are advancing on all fronts. By the way watch out when any of the government say we, because just like his use of the word 'country' who are 'we' he now includes the American helicopters in the pool as 'we' have helicipters. I just so do not trust Nulabour. Shame on them all, but shame on parliament for failing to do it's job.
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#41 TAG
As you say there is no principled opposition these days from the student population, 30 years ago rightly or wrongly the student unions would have been organising protests.
Such apathy amongst the young is worrying - where are the future free thinkers coming from?
This government and the shadow cabinet epitomise the blandness that is so common today.
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Andrew,
why is there no criticism of Brown and the use of the patriotism card. He is in the firing line alright. If only he would give us the chance to fire him by calling an election. The Queen will not say those famous words in November, 'my government will...' not with this lot anyway.
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TAG and various
The media report and write the stories that are fed to them by the MoD. If you like call it spin:
http://members5.boardhost.com/medialens/msg/1247436125.html
In other wars media crews go out and do their own thing. In this one they are strictly controlled.
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A bit off topic, but another story that you just could not make it up. Ed Miliband promises more green jobs but a wind turbine plant on the isle of Wight will close tomorrow. They made turbines for the US market. Oh, sorry silly me - the wind in the US is different to the wind in England!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6710815.ece
The government will import turbines from Europe and China.
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21. superAngry
35. Susan-Croft
36. excellentcatblogger
etc.
I agree with ecb in that the tribal and religious factions are never going to be easily ruled by a central government. The country was created by imperialists not by osmosis. A federal approach with more independence given to local authorities (warlords if you like) seems more practical. The Taliban would have to be accommodated in that federation, whether boundaries could be agreed upon and kept is another matter.
There has been opportunities missed etc. For example - the promises of replacing poppy fields with alternative crops never really materialised.
Practical and financial aid are crucial. The elections should give us some answers as to the feasibility of the current 'mission' or whether it's back to the drawing board. The problem is with all the self-interest issues around, be it Karzai or the US, the true realities may be intentionally obscured.
The reason the Americans (with the ever-loyal British) are doing all the fighting (S-C@35) as I keep harping on about, is that IMO they have the keenest interest in the country's natural energy (gas) resources and geographically it straddles a route for a pipeline from the untapped Central Asian reserves down to the Caspian Basin. If they left that to the fate of who knows what, it could give Russia an even greater monopoly over gas supplies as well as exacerbating the problem of increasing energy demands from Asia and China specifically, which if not met will push prices through the roof. I doubt if it is co-incidence that the American troops are concentrated along the proposed pipeline route. al-Qaeda have probably exchanged Afghanistan for Pakistan and other countries, but America's interest does not end there. With the break up of the Soviet Union the US can now challenge Russia's hegemony in the region.
Pakistan is the big headache. The 'solution' here has to be political but self-made. Ex-President General Musharraf, the ISI, the CIA, have all contributed to a very volatile situation. Whether Zardari can be a unifying President remains to be seen. He is close to the US but can't be seen to allow the US to act with impunity in his country's borders. He has those in the military who are traditionally hostile towards India to appease as well. He appears to support Karzai and takes a tough line on insurgents and extremism.
Do we pull out of Afghanistan? What do the majority of Afghans want? It's their country.
As some pundits have said, it's time to scale down our ambitions and be more realistic about what can be achieved.
=
I read an article about the USA's position in world politics and that of Russia and China. As a result of the global economic crisis, the balance has shifted. The article contended that China is only now waking up to being in the driver's seat and that the US will play the EU and countries like Ukraine off against Russia to maintain its position of strength. It proposes that the EU countries should cultivate a stronger relationship with Russia rather than continue the NATO alliance, which would isolate the US who they refer to as an international 'troublemaker'. A bit myopic but worth debating nonetheless.
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That Gordon Brown is short-changing British forces is a given.He alone, however, does not decide on which troops and what equipment is deployed.Why are we attempting to fight a guerilla war in Afghanistan with conventional troops? Why are we spending billions on Trident when Britain is hardly a nuclear power? Why are we spending billions on aircraft carriers when the East India Company has been out of business for some time? Why are we not expanding by up to four times the size of our Special Forces when they represent the only answer to guerilla warfare. We are sending 18 year olds, barely older than cadets, from regular regiments to fight a very active and astute enemy on his own turf.
With the end of military action in Northern Ireland we have no theatre in which to give our officers and men experience in combatting hardened and shrewd guerilla forces. The SAS, and SBS are the only answer to the Afghan war, but they number little more than 2,000 men!
I hope Andrew gets the chance to put this to John Hutton.
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meninwhitecoats thank you but I havent really been away. I have been watching with interest the Iran election on Twitter. I have to say the reporting or lack of it on the mainstream media has been lacklustre in the extreme.
For what you hear on the news you would think that the whole thing was over. Iran executed 14 people yesterday and it didnt even make the headlines on the news.
Also video is still coming out showing the protests more recently. They are easily identifiable since the people posting them have taken to showing the newspaper with the date on it for that day such as the one below for the 14/07/09.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7YLsn1S15Q
You are right about Afghanistan we are between the devil and the deep blue sea. I fear talk of exit strategies whilst understandable are premature and probably misguided. Whilst it is true nobody wants to see our troops in a country far from home fighting and dying I can see no alternative.
Cost in financial terms of keeping them there should not even enter into the argument. Doing the right thing costs and this country has always known it. The question isnt price but whether it is right or wrong. Personally whilst I would prefer us not to be there I feel this is a war we cannot afford to lose and neither can we afford to quit.
Whatever happens our troops should be supported properly as should their family's. If this country can find millions to give Goodwin et al in the banks and Thompson et al in the BBC then there is no barrier to giving the army what it needs. Maybe these "people" , I use that word since any other would get this post banned, mentioned here could donate half of what they earn to the forces for their family's. It might then be worth paying Thompson £830,000 pa then though I seriously doubt he is worth even £10,000 pa.
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Concerning the Afghan war and the casualties, this seems an obvious question to me. But I have not seen anybody raise it:-
Britain and the USA are allies in this war. Britain, now a relatively small country with limited resources, has proven brave soldiers, but a lack of helicopters and of the personnel trained to fly and operate them. Would it be possible for Mr Brown to meet with President Obama, explain the public unease about the rising death rate, and ask him whether we could hire (at commercial rates) some extra helicopters from the USA as a stopgap. This would give us the necessary time to purchase the helicopters we undoubtedly need. We would also have to negotiate the temporary seconding of US Army personnel to the British Army, to operate the helicopters. President Obama, if he has any spare helicopters, would find it difficult to refuse to negotiate on this matter.
I have no idea of the practicality of this suggestion, but if it is impossible I would like to know why.
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Andrew,
how is that the Americans can get their Chinooks into Afghanistan so quickly. I hope that you will keep your blog open whilst the politicians are on holiday, even though Ming picked-up on my point that it may be necessary for parliament to be recalled.
This is not about helicopters, it is what is the point. The Americans, again as I have noted before will be out of Afghanistan by the next presidential election. as soon as the British people understand that then the sooner we will be out. It is not about our national security, it is not about keeping terror off the streets of Britain, there is no point any more, other than to capture bin Laden, execute him, and then it will all be over.
Please keep your blog open Andrew, you are the way in the which many of us can keep Brown from setting the agenda. He will regret this long holiday, I, and others am going to run rings around him. He has made comments in PMQs about Afghan soldiers on the ground, why is he only now talking to Karzai, why not talk to Karzai before the offensive. Why were the Afghans not ordered to participate fully. Why does Brown talk in percentages, rather than numbers. Why were Afghan soldiers not involved in the offensive, Panthers Claw.
As for Gen Sir Mike Jackson, please, another failed General. As for Hutton on your show I thought his 'performance' was disgraceful again. I will not divulge confidential conversations, blah blah blah, so why was he on your show.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
9/11 was carried out by 20 - yes, just twenty - young misguided men. They were an isolated group of men, funded by Osama bin Laden.
And since then we have had GW saying there is a 'War on Terror'... Huh? What war on terror? There IS no war on terror - it is just disparate groups of men who have crazy misguided ideas.
And just what do the Taliban people in Afghanistan have to do with that? Answer: absolutely nothing.
If you asked any Taliban man, they wouldn't even be able to tell you where London IS, never mind come over here and bomb us. The Taliban and anyone in Afghanistan have absolutely NOTHING to do with any bombs that have gone off in this country - the only bombs that have gone off are those from our own home grown terrorists. Taliban people would not even know how to get a passport and get on a plane and get to this country - so how does the government come to the conclusion that they are a threat to us? They are NOT a threat to us at all.
So, I want to know, just WHY are we in Afghanistan? Afghanistan has NOTHING to do with any of the problems we face in this country. We should get out of Afghanistan NOW - there is absolutely no point in us being there. Bring the troops home NOW.
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As more of our soldiers return home in coffins pursuing the crazy adventure that is Afghanistan I am frustrated to hear Brown continually bleat on that it is to protect us all from terrorism. The last outrage was home grown in Leeds for goodness sake!!
This is precisely what Hitler did in the 1930's and Dubya Bush did some years later. Invent an enemy within to deflect attention away from the regimes own shortcomings.
On a seperate issue, all credit to the good people of Wootton Bassett for their reaction to the returning soldiers. It further shames our craven government in that Mr Brown and his ministers are always conspicuous by their absence.
He is quite happy to grab a photo opportunity pressing the flesh in Iraq when the lads are alive but seems to regard meeting their coffins after they have paid the ultimate price for his escapade as not photogenic enough for him.
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TheBlameGame 47
I see an awful lot of value in your arguments, however I cannot without knowing for certain, put forward any answers as to Americas intentions in Aghanistan without really knowing them for certain.
It is very true that China and Russia in the future will hold the balance of power. As I have tried to say on many occasions those who hold the key to a good economy hold the key to everything. Putin we may dislike, but he is an expert in financial matters and a very good economist. The reason why other Countries will not work with Russia and China, though they may have to in the future, is their record on Human rights. However on many occasions now the Kremlin has pointed out that America and Britain can no longer lecture anyone on this particular subject.
I believe the wars we have engaged in have lost us a lot of standing in the World and much more thought should have been put into what we were getting into and what the end result would be. For a small Country like Britain to engage in an open ended war especially when our economy is in such bad shape was a disaster waiting to happen anyway.
If the intention was to bring democracy to these Countries such as Iraq and Afganistan, what sort of democracy is it we are bringing. Is it our type of democracy, in which case what gives us the arrogance to believe we are correct. If it is for gain which is your argument put forward then we should definitely not be there in the first place. In either case the reason for war was wrong. Do bombs and war bring people round to your point of view anyway?, or does it just foster more hatred.
In my humble opinion Britain has struggled for years to gain its own illusion of democracy. These Countries must do the same. We cannot go interferring all over the world in others religion and beliefs. We spend a vast fortune on foreign aid to prop up despots in places like Africa for instance they do not bring demcocracy to their people, but we have never chosen to invade them. In fact at times we have supported them if it suits our needs.
The cost of this war is important to me both in lives and the money which should be used for our own people. Because we have chosen to use the money in good times badly this will have repercussions down the years for our elderly, our childrens education and various other choices we will have to make. We will see more of our old and young living in poverty, I wonder who will come to our rescue. Will we also look back on these wars as a complete waste of lives on both sides and wonder why we did it in the first place.
I remember Clinton being interviewed about his thoughts on the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and he said had he been President at the time he would have looked first at what he calls the third way. Talking and trying to preserve peace with our perceived adversaries often brings better results. I see very little difference in Obama than Bush myself, except for good rhetoric, on the war and his decisions to me on the economy are pretty bad as well.
In the end there are so many open questions now about what we should do for the future in Afghanistan and after that the very unstable Pakistan, I do not believe anyone has the answer.
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Please can you post up your roasting of John 'I see no helicopters' Hutton.
What a lamentable performance from this shower. If they can't resource the military, stop asking them to go on 'ego trip' adventures to reassure the punters that Labour's 'peacenik' past offers no threat to the profit-making of the military-industrial complex.
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53. Troops_home_NOW
I agree with your broad sentiment... but there is a history between al-Qaeda and the Taliban going back to the jihad against the Afghan Marxist regime and the invading Russians. Both fought on the same side. Bin Laden is also thought to have funded the Taliban who after gaining control of Afghanistan allowed al-Qaeda to operate from the country.
It is also alleged that money given to the Taliban by the CIA pre 9/11 found its way to al-Qaeda.
They are not ideologically natural allies. The two do not share the same Islamic traditions, the Taliban espousing a radical school of Sunnism and al-Qaeda being Saudi-rooted Salafist Islamists. This is a ray of hope to the Western coalition, indeed the Saudis hosted a meeting between the Taliban and envoys from Karzai's government last year, where one of the Taliban's leaders distanced himself from al-Qaeda.
Al-Qaeda are also critical of the Taliban's lack of enthusiasm for their global Islamic struggle. A point which is not widely published in the Western media, as is Iran's Shia opposition to the Sunni fundamentalists of the Taliban.
So while the US and Brown would have us believe defeating the Taliban is crucial in the war on terror, their views on al-Qaeda may suggest otherwise. Our choices of allies in these situations are apparently dictated for us. We were told there was an axis of evil. How true was that claim?
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Bring the troops home
"We should get out of Afghanistan NOW. Bring the troops home NOW"
I cant agree with your stance. In my view the time for asking the question was before we went in. We have enough experience from history to know that it was almost certainly a doomed exercise entered into on a false prospectus. However, it is too late to put the clock back. We are in, and so are tens of thousands of troops from other countries.
If we run now we will be accused at best of dereliction of duty and possibly something much worse. Also, getting out NOW would greatly enhance the danger to the lives of our troops as we sought to extricate ouselves in what you seem to suggest by the word NOW would be a hasty and undignified retreat. Finally, it would be an admission to all the bereaved families that their sons and daughters died in vain (something some of them suspect but do not need to have articulated so baltantly).
I have no difficulty with pressing Obama and Brown to explain their exit strategy. I suspect they havent got one, and Brown himself has talked about the long haul in the past. That is not good enough, and nor is all the woolly rhetoric about terrorists on the streets of London, As previous posters have said, they are already here.
In my view we need a proper strategy. You may disagree with this list, which is not exhaustive, but it is a few of my ideas.
1. Get the French, Germans and others out of their bunkers and down to Helmond to take their turn. If we face them about their commitment we can bring in their much heralded idea of a European Army ("If you wont support us now what point is there in having ideas about an EU Army..."). Time to stop pussy-footing on this blatantly unfair situation.
2. Provide sufficient helicopters and suitable equipment for our troops as soon as possible so that they have what they need. Stop lying about numbers and flying hours, and percentages of nothing.
3. Get Brown to stop using commanders on the ground to make his political points.
4. Say how many Afghan troops and police are needed to replace coalition forces, and the timetable for them to take over after the elections (my big concern here is that the Taliban will end up in the Afghan army is that misguided?)
5. Get the issue onto a proper international footing (leaving out those who do not support the campaign), This would involve Pakistan, the new Afgan government when it is elected and all those with a vested interest in the coalition. Get them to share the dialogue rather than have it as an Obama or Brown show, which is certain to get up everyones nose.
8. Work out whether poppies are a good thing or something that should be destroyed, and the implications.
9. Commit to a decision on when to withdraw by (say) 2012.
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Bob Ainsworth said that the availability of "elicopters" would not have prevented the "hambush" of our troops last week. It is a point echoed by Gordon Brown in PMQs on Wednesday. What they fail to add is that more helicpters may well have helped to save the lives of countless other soldiers in the front line as would the availability of more jamming devices to prevent the deployment of remotely controlled trip wire bombs.
On a side issue why were no representatives of The Government at Wooton Basset? The sitting Conservative MP was there as was a representative of The Royal Family.
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Just watched the clip.
As far as I could ascertain, every question posed was met with an evasion, a damned evasion or a pointless statistic, skipping from meaningless totals to equally sly percentages, and from specific instances to broad timeframes depending on which might seem less awful. The clown even tried to cite an opposition concession on the facts of one incident to try and apply to the totality of the overall conflict provision.
I don't know if our troops are being led by donkeys, but at the very top the decisions on where they get sent, why and with what, seems to be in the hands of bean-counting, box-ticking jackals.
A bit like the rest of the country's interests. I was going to say that at least our lives are not at stake, but even then in some areas one has to wonder what such self-serving ineptitude will inflict.
I hope they enjoy their hol... sabbatical.
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58. majorroadaheadagain
Some sensible thinking there.
The upcoming election results will obviously have a strong influence on future plans. Hopefully there will be a clear winner, if the results are challenged or disputed that will make any strategy more difficult to implement.
There has to proper consensus amongst all countries involved. The problem is the invasion was initiated by the US and the military operation is a NATO led one, the agenda is set by the Americans, not the UN, as it should be with any international operation like this. And as I've said in my previous posts, I do not believe that the long-term interests of the US in the region are entirely driven by self-defence, as our Prime Minister assures us is the reason we are there.
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Add. to my previous.
Talking about strategies and exit plans, remember back in 2006 John Reid saying that he expected British forces being sent into Helmand to leave again without a shot being fired, or "I hope they leave without a shot being fired" as he claims he said.
I hope (expect) that the government has become less naive since then. It's 8 years since we went in there, that's a long time. It shouldn't be another 8 years before we pull out.
(btw in December 2008 Reid accepted a £50,000 consultancy job with a private security company operating in Iraq and Afghanistan. 3 months later the security company landed a multi million pound contract with the MoD.)
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The P.M. in front of The Select Committee this morning:
The answer to the question relating to 2000 more troops was met with 'We looked at four options'.
On helicopters we got 'There has been a 64% increase in helicopter deployment'.
Neither answer addressed the relevant questions. In fact although we all know how many helicopters we have in Afghanistan because it was mentioned in The Commons yesterday and and previously Brown said he had been advised not to divulge numbers. Very convenient! The 64% thing is also a disgrace. 64% 0f 20 is barely 10 when The USA already have 120 for the same number of troops. The P.M. is fond of bragging about his financial commitment to our troops but in reality doesn't deliver what is actually needed to reduce casualties.
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Brown's entire performance in front of The Select Committe yesterday was a lesson in mendacity, question avoidance and blame deflection. For those that know him well it was no surprise but there will be some sadly who are taken in by him. The constant boasting about putting in more money than previous administrations was one of the worst red herrings and entirely irrrelevant in the context of present problems. If I were a soldier I'd want to return home pronto and leave the army forthwith. Jeff Randall's article for Sky sums up his performance beautifully!
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Good morning each & Andrew.
An Afghan diplomat writes today in The Guardian in response to an earlier article that I have not read. However there are comments (from the public) and his e-mail address...
hameedhaami@mfa.gov.af
I am thinking of inviting him to come here except that he is getting a hard enough time from the 'sandal & shorts' brigade.
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