Obama-Brown stimulus is a dead duck
President Obama and the First Lady swept into London last night with an entourage of around 500 -- who says the imperial presidency is dead?
But even the world's only superstar politician does not have enough stardust to sprinkle around to make tomorrow's G20 meeting of the world's most important economies (accounting for 80% of global output) go his way.
Indeed, Mr Obama's first foray into global summits may even bring him down to earth with a bump: one excited pro-Obama commentator in this morning's Guardian fears that Obama will arrive as JFK but depart as Jimmy Carter (he thinks this is already happening in America).
That is a crazy over-reaction but Mr Obama will struggle to create a global consensus out of squabbling world leaders.
Of course he will be greeted by adoring fans waving little American flags (for many it will be a celebration of the end of the Bush era) and there will be tea with the Queen.
The Barack-Michelle double-act will be the only show in town as far as the international media is concerned (even France's glamorous First Lady, Carla Bruni, has stayed away, for fear, some say, of being overshadowed) -- unless, of course, the motley fringe of the anti-globalisation protestors live up to their threats and wreak carnage on the streets of London, in which case these are the pictures that will dominate all prime-time coverage (but another Seattle is unlikely).
Mr Obama will learn in London -- if he doesn't already know -- that the only supporter of his call for a co-ordinated global stimulus to mitigate the international recession is Gordon Brown -- and in Europe the British Prime Minister has become an isolated figure on the matter.
In quick succession in recent days it has been opposed by the boss of the European Central Bank, the Governor of the Bank of England, French President Nicholas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The Obama-Brown stimulus is a dead duck before the G20 even meets.
Indeed an alternative agenda is gaining ground that is already overshadowing it: Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy are planning a joint press conference today to say that what the world needs is not more economic stimulus but a new era of global regulation of banks, executive bonuses, hedge funds and offshore tax havens.
President Obama and Prime Minister Brown have effectively conceded defeat on the stimulus front: their rhetoric is already muted on the matter and expectations are being rapidly managed down.
The policy was fast becoming academic anyway: it is unlikely the US Congress would have agreed to a second stimulus and the markets would balk at any more borrowing by Britain.
So the agenda moves more to global regulation.
Neither Mr Obama nor Mr Brown is averse to tighter rules for banking and bankers but they are wary of the over-arching international constructs being promoted by France and Germany (President Sarkozy is so keen on them that he is threatening to walk out of the summit if he doesn't get is way -- the little attention seeker!).
Mr Obama knows his administration will face open warfare with Wall Street if he hands it over to global regulators while Mr Brown, though one of nature's regulators, is wary that the Europeans are out to strangle the City of London as the capital of international Anglo-Saxon finance.
There will not be an open rift: that's not how these events work. But there will be more than the usual copious amounts of fudge needed to disguise the disagreements.
The Americans and the British will settle for emphasising the size of the existing combined stimulus of the G20 to the global economy (around $2 trillion) and agree to strong words about greater global regulation, which they will later water down in detailed negotiations.
Instead, the emphasis will be on extra resources for the International Monetary Fund to bail out countries in trouble, not just in the developing world but in Eastern Europe too. As much as $500 billion is being talked about, though the Chinese will only pony up if they are given a greater say in the IMF and other global financial institutions (which is only right anyway).
Everybody will beat up on tax havens, even though they had nothing to do with the current crisis and closing them down is a lot harder than the G20 will pretend. All will promise to eschew protectionist (before rushing home to continue erecting discreet barriers to aid their own industries).
The London summit takes place against a grim global economic backdrop: the OECD forecasts that global trade will slump by 13% this year --the worst in living memory -- and the major economies will decline by an average of 4.3%, with America and the Eurozone both contracting by 4% while Japan falls by 6.6%, Germany by 5.3% and Britain by anything between 3.5% and 4.5%.
Nothing decided in London will do much to change that and even 2010 looks like being a year of stagnation at best for most.
No doubt some of what is agreed at the G20 can be seen as the building blocks for a return to growth in the years to come but most of what will be in the final communique could have been agreed without an expensive and elaborate summit.
For the host, Gordon Brown, his hopes of a triumphant London summit which would propel him to re-election look increasingly forlorn. For President Obama, the London summit will probably mark his international transition from messiah to man.
To cap it all, the Europeans are refusing to bow down before him.
Instead, he and Brown stand together, supposedly the representatives of Anglo-American turbocapitalism, struggling to push the statist French and Germans - and this is the bit that was in nobody's script - leftward.
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~17~RS~)
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Just as a point of interest, did anybody notice that when Obama and Brown returned to Number 10 from the Foreign Office this morning, Obama took the initiative of shaking hands with the policeman at the door. The policeman then offered his hand to Gordon Brown, who ignored him. It's small things like this that gain popularity for Obama -- and Brown would do well to take note.
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Given that when President Obama meets David Cameron, he will no doubt learn that a future Conservative government will not be joining in a second global stimulus next year, surely the pressure on Obama's current plan will intensify. If, as seems likely, jobless numbers continue to climb through this year and next, with at best a flattening off by 2011, what chance does he have of a successfuul re-election campaign in 2012?
On this basis, Jimmy Carter might end up being a rather generous comparison.
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Why does the speaker once again allow the PM to make a statement to the house during PMQ's without the ability to have a debate?
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Happiness used to mean well-being it now seems to focussed on pleasure. Therefore under the first definition we are way more unhappy than we were ten years ago. Labour have been undermining everything that makes us happy. The Institute of Engineering and Technology have discovered engineers are pretty happy folks and therefore we should have more us.
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I forgot to mention that the Institute also discovered that being a conservative also makes you happier. Therefore conservative engineers have it made.
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Is Patricia Hewitt really suggesting that all the MP's expenses should be decided by the court of public opinion.
I agree with Liam Fox
It needs to be fixed now, to prevent it affecting "democracy"
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Your leader says it all; you are a committed Conservative.
You interrupt Labour and Liberal politicians yet as witnessed today ever eager to interrupt you waited until Liam Fox completed his speech before you continued.
Andrew Neill you are clearly not man enough to pin on the Conservative’s rosette; the only item left to you with which could completely hole the BBC’s nonsensical claims of impartiality well below the water line.
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On the charity discussion. Agree that strong economies should be motivated to help their own. However there are some dire situations in India and if as an individual you can help change the future of one child from the rubbish tips outside Mumbai you should take it. If anyone needs a suggestion try Acts of Hope. They give 300 of the poorest kids a primary and secondary schooling.
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I'm still amazed at the goodie bag.
A candle does siginify some kind of hope if the lights go out. But a tea towel? Isn't tea the reason we're all in this mess and we still canne get it dry.
Then you've got chocolate to deal with the guilt and a tie to hang yourself at the bitter end of world.
An exclusive selction of gifts from the hotel britange.
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Just been watching the stomach churning Brown meeting Obama. Doesn’t idiot Brown realise what a revolting and ridiculous figure this self appointed PM cuts on the world stage. I would rather sit and stare at a lump of steaming pooh than watch the puffed up Brown brown nosing Obama!
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First major press conference on foreign shores for Obama and what happens. The first question is a real 'googly' from Nick Robinson.
So much for the Special Relationship.
But I though Obama handled it really well.
"Some are to blame but all are responsible." was a particularly astute reply, once Obama had time to think of it...!
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The whole point of this excersise is posturing. Gordon must know that he's on a sticky wicket with the other europeans, so cosying up to Obama will give him credence for now. At least the pictures of them both smiling outside No. 10 will be beamed all over the world - which is exactly what Gordon wants the world to see.
I saw Gordon brush past the the policeman when he offered to shake his hand too. Just reinforces the fact that he's a pompous ass, who cares nothing for the man in the street!
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#6 Strongholdbarricades
Is Patricia Hewitt really suggesting that all the MP's expenses should be decided by the court of public opinion.
.................................................
.....wasn't she the Health Secretary who was slow-clapped by the Midwives and Nurses?
I thought about how much Government actually costs. This is not MP's pensions, just salaries, expenses, and the running of Nos 10 and 11, and the Houses of Parliament and Lords . It must cost a staggering amount of money. I'd love to be one of those sitting in a quango deciding their expenses. I'd whittle them down to virtually nothing.
Do MP's pay tax?
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Well done Andrew, for allowing Liam Fox to finish speaking. Normally you are shouted down by loud mouth Labour politicians like McNulty (I don't think he will be on your show anytime soon)and Prescott.
Manners cost nothing and at least tory ministers do not try and shout you down but are polite.
Nice to see Nick (Red) Robinson asking a decent question to Brown & President Obama and yourself starting to criticise this government for a change.
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@7
I'm afraid I don't follow your argument.
I actually thought Liam Fox answered the questions whilst Patricia Hewitt didn't even recognise the subject.
We are allowed to have an answer, not just spin. The government are the ones that are supposed to be accountable.
Even Myners is still squirming on the hook, but Brown won't sack anyone
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1#
Doesnt surprise me in the slightest re Brown and the cop.
The man is a megalomaniac of the highest order. Sooner we get the chance to kick him out the better.
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@13. , shellingout
Yes, back in 2006...it seems to have taken her a while to be rehabilitated.
I'll sit on the committee, though I just think that the expenses should fall under the auspices of the Inland Revenue...the same as everyone else.
Then publish them...if you can justify the exposure without embarrassment then the MP can have them.
No family members, and salaries for staff regulated by temping agency rates, though I'm sure there will be plenty of political wannabes who would do it just for the experience (interns)
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#10 crowdedisland
So agree, can't stomach it either - trouble is he's everywhere - it's like being force fed.
Anything and everything he says seems to me to be totally at odds with what is going on and what needs to be done.
To have him repeatedly show that he's incapable of dealing with any problem either makes me squirm. It is so, so embarrassing.
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#7
You obviously haven't noticed that Andrew Neil normally only interrupts - or stops - guests who don't attempt to answer the question put to them, or who ramble on too long on party propaganda, or who rudely try to drown out other guests.
Today Patricia Hewitt fell into the first two of those categories, and I suspect that Liam Fox would have been treated in the same way if he had done the same.
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Andrew,
I can understand Brown wanting to attach himself to a popular leader but what's in it for Obama?
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Daily Politics is the one programme I look forward to. Today's was as good as expected. The business over expenses is not just about money but integrity. Are some MP's any better than the tax dodgers and benefit fraudsters? Not good enough to say they have not infringed the rules. What sort of rules ignore integrity of purpose?
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I am sick to death of this G20 tripe already. Snorkel and Teacosy want to impose a Euro version of capitalism groan.
Gormless and Obanger dont want them too but want us to spend lots of cash instead.
The chinese and indians are well chinese and indians.
As for the rest who are they?
In the meantime our Parliament is a stinking cesspool of corruption and vice.
The English are without their own Parliament unlike the Irish Scottish and Welsh and are second class citizens.
Scumbags.
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Once again Nick Robinson reported negatively on Gordon Brown tonight. Gordon Brown clearly said (and indicated) first to Barack Obama which way to leave the room (6 O'clock news report from inside 10 Downing Street - 1st april) but Nick managed to put a voiceover (clearly innacurately) on the report suggesting that President Obama had to lead the PM in his own home. He also asked a question designed to embarrass Gordon Brown and Barack Obama during the q and a session (also reported on the same news) which was based on his own simplistic interpretation of events.
Can we expect to see Lord Robinson if and when the conservatives get in? David Cameron please note.
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Obama obviously not aware that is just aint fitting to refer to England when he means the UK. Oh well he is American.
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#23 Can I come to Nick's defence. It may be an embarrassing question but that's the point. It was a question many of us would have asked had we been allowed there and that is what I expect from a good journalist.
I also think that sometimes Nicks reporting is too fair on Brown!
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Why is it that so few reporters - none that I've actually seen- have covered the fact that President Obama seemed to request a meeting with David Cameron? Since this is not a state visit there is no custom of meeting the leader of the opposition. Yet they did meet as did their wives. Doesn't this tell us something?
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Andrew Neil writes "Everybody will beat up on tax havens, even though they had nothing to do with the current crisis.."
An excellent counter-example was provided in NewsNight today where one of the studio guests pointed out -- to the ineffectual Mr Alexander MP -- that the Home Office building (and others) are owned by PFI companies based off-shore, ie. we pay the rent, the money leaves the country and we cannot even tax it.
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Obama has an intriguing manner and air of ordinary about him and I mean this as a compliment. No, even his magic cannot rescue the disaster that is our economy. But what he did do was brighten it up just a little with his amazing oratory style of bringing a little humanity to people around him, or himself. The mention of Gordon Brown's children, dinosaurs and Afghanistan and Iran was a gem and it reminds that he is a father and even Gordon has to stop rehearsing his scripts occasionally.
In short, we're in a pickle and a half. I am fed up with hearing about MPs rotten to the core. My MP Dan Norris, is a very refreshing chap too, and I was extremely suprised by him. So much so, he's just converted a lifetime Conservative voter to his cause!
Andrew, you're very busy, I know, but on your show today Patricia Hewitt made a great point about expenses, someone should follow that up because it made sense and that is scary!
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Impeachement, arrest them all! Get rid of them by any means necessary! Power to the people! Power to the Industries! Lets buy up gold now! Let's organise an alternative government now! Set up an alternative bank!
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Is it just me or does this summit look increasingly like a lot of gesturing with absolutely no hope of fixing anything?
and isn't a bit rich of Brown to be calling France and Germany 'statist' after what his party have been up to since 97 - that man changes his principles every five seconds
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12 Shellingout
But had Brown shook his hand after Obama he would've been seen to be shallow, simply mimicking Obama's gesture to make himself look good
Brown is not liked or respected by the people - there is nothing he can do to please them
Except call an election
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27#
Correct. Including all the properties formerly owned and occupied by HMRC....
I wonder who's bright idea this was.... (as if I need to ask........................)
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23#
With respect, 10 Downing St is NOT Gordons home.
He is a lodger.
It is a grace and favour property that goes with the job that he repeatedly stabbed the elected PM of the day in the back to get.
The man is no better than an illegal squatter who should have been teargassed out by the bailiffs within 24 hours of setting foot in the place.
At least someone appears to be having the guts to show him the way out. I'm not sure I would have done it with just one hand on his shoulder though....
....The other one would have been holding the handcuffs to prevent him trying to cling onto the doorframe to stay in the place!
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Shouldn't governments be printing their own money interest free? There's been talk in America of abolishing the Federal Reserve, which poses as a government institution, but is in fact a private bank with no national allegence, and no accountability whatsoever. In other words, the Federal Reserve is a fraud and treason.
Can Britain abolish the bank of England? What about setting up an alternative bank in Britain that is not based on creating debt?
What about abolishing debt all together, globally, and arresting the international bankers?
This global economic crisis has been willfully engineered by the same ilk of international bankers, as the pre-WWII depression.
Note: How did Nazi-Germany manage to build up a huge high tech army and heavy industry in the midst of a huge recession? Nazi-Germany got sponsored by someone? George W Bush's grandfather.
Beware: The UK, US, UN, and EU are being aggressively taken over by the international bankers, who have vast monopolies on the world's resources and weapons of mass destruction.
Why is the political establishment bowing down to these nut-case bankers? They are not to be trusted. They hold secret meetings and control the main stream media, yet they want to micro-chip us, and micro-manage every aspect of our existence. They are the fundamentalist extremist terrorists at the top of the pyramid, responsible for masterminding a litany of atrocities.
They are not saving the world, they are enslaving the world.
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#25 Nick's question was based on the premise that Gordon Brown had blamed America for the world's economic woes. He has never blamed America, but rather american bankers - this is not the same thing - as anybody with american friends and relatives will quickly point out. The basis of Nick's question was, therefore, false and seemed to be designed to forward a particular anti Brown agenda. This should surely not be the role of the BBC.
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#34 Point of information 1:
No 10 is Gordon Brown's home. He lives there with his family. Plenty of people live in houses they don't own but they still call them home.
Point of information 2:
Watch the clip! You will see that what I said was right and Nick Robinson's voiceover was innaccurate - but then Comment 34 seems to be almost entirely gratuitously offensive. I don't suppose that mere facts will sway your prejudices
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poshcassandra1 (#36) :
"He has never blamed America, but rather american bankers "
I don't see any specific targetting of American bankers when Brown said things like this on Sky News last October :
"This problem started in America. They have got to sort it out. The Americans have a responsibility to the rest of the world."
And even if he was restricting it to American bankers - are not American bankers regulated by the American government?
Aside from the fact that a large slug of the problem started at the AIG office in Mayfair, it was a perfectly fair question to put to Brown in the presence of Obama.
And even if it was unfair - the job of the media is to question our politicians, not give them slavish devotion. If they're not big and hairy enough to be able to defend their policies, they shouldn't be in politics. It's not about having an "agenda", it's about being a good journalist.
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Don't think it is a dead duck, they have to do something and if you (the press) keep talking down the economy it really will collapse. There is no point in a bailout until they turn off the tap and stop the banks gambling in derivatives and all the other complex debts and swaps etc. So if that is what the French and Germans mean by more regulation I must agree.
BTW Can you PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE explain to Diane Abbot that we like to hear what Michael Portillo and your guests have to say. She has her say but then constantly interrupts everyone else and she has an annoying habit of giving a commentary of yeh um etc as the other person speaks when she agrees with them.
Please explain that we have one mouth and two ears and she should use them in that ratio. I am on the verge of making a youtube compilation of her interruptions so please ask her to wait her turn.
Can we have a blog for comments on each weeks this week show?
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Don't think it is a dead duck, they have to do something and if you (the press) keep talking down the economy it really will collapse. There is no point in a bailout until they turn off the tap and stop the banks gambling in derivatives and all the other complex debts and swaps etc. So if that is what the French and Germans mean by more regulation I must agree.
BTW Can you PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE explain to Diane Abbot that we like to hear what Michael Portillo and your guests have to say. She has her say but then constantly interrupts everyone else and she has an annoying habit of giving a commentary of yeh um etc as the other person speaks when she agrees with them.
Please explain that we have one mouth and two ears and she should use them in that ratio. I am on the verge of making a youtube compilation of her interruptions so please ask her to wait her turn.
Can we have a blog for comments on each weeks this week show?
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did you get my comment? it just cleared the screen
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