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Ignore the hype

Andrew Neil | 09:58 UK time, Monday, 22 September 2008

brown203conf1.jpgForget any putsch against Gordon Brown here in Manchester: the brothers and sisters attending the Labour party conference are not in a rebellious mood. Indeed, they seem rather reconciled to events: a poll suggests around 60% of Labour supporters don't think they can win the next election with Mr Brown as leader; but 52% don't want a leadership election.

So ignore all the hype about this being a "make-or-break speech for Gordon" or him having to give "the speech of his life". To be sure, if he bombs it will give the rebels a fillip; but it's likely to be neither a dud nor Martin Luther King - just more of the same old same old.

Labour is going through the motions of appearing to the outside world as a happy, united family but in private admits there will have to be a day of reckoning - but not here, indeed not before Parliament returns on 6th October and probably not until after the Glenrothes by-election (maybe on 6th November, when all eyes will be on the US election result). So Manchester resolves nothing and Labour's leadership crisis is set to rumble on through the autumn and into the winter.

The Brownites are arguing that last week's near financial meltdown means it's "now Gordon more than ever". But the real significance of the financial crisis will be its deleterious impact on the real economy in the weeks and months ahead and the effect that will have on Labour's already dismal election prospects.

darling203300conf1.jpgChancellor Alistair Darling will this morning address conference against a grim backdrop of collapsing house prices, rising home repossessions, unemployment heading towards 2m, a massive credit drought thanks to the financial turmoil and the prospect of government borrowing about to go through the roof, making a mockery of the Brown fiscal rules. No Chancellor has had such miserable mood music for a conference since Norman Lamont in 1992.

Mr Darling will echo his master's new enthusiasm for greater global regulation of financial markets - but none of that will happen this side of a general election, if it ever happens at all. The unspoken words behind Mr Darling's Presbyterian demeanour are simple: things are going to get worse - perhaps a whole lot worse - before they get better.

We'll have live and uninterrupted coverage of the Darling speech plus reaction from Manchester and the City here on the Daily Politics, starting at the earlier time of 11.30am this morning on BBC2.

We'll also be talking to two Labour cabinet ministers: Work and Pensions Secretary James Purnell, whom some see as a future Labour leader, and Defence Secretary Des Browne, whom nobody sees as a future Labour leader. We'll also hear from one of the leading Labour rebels, Frank Field, who led the rebellion over the 10p tax and is one of those MPs keen to send out nomination papers for a leadership contest.

Also: should there be a windfall tax on energy companies? Unions are trying to force the issue today at the conference - many Labour MPs support the move but so far the Prime Minister has ruled it out. We want your views on that plus what Mr Darling should tell the City this morning and what Mr Brown should tell conference tomorrow.

Email us now at daily.politics@bbc.co.uk. And remember we're on from 11.30am til 1pm today on BBC2 in a specially-extended edition of the Daily Politics to give full coverage of the Chancellor's speech.

Comments

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  • 1. At 2:03pm on 22 Sep 2008, aquietman wrote:

    Although the PM looked happier when dealing with the money crisis there is still as my wife keeps saying a feeling 'we are all doomed'. Other than lagging our loft and wearing an extra pullover are we all helpless? We need more proactive leadership. The Labour party does not seem to know where this leadership is coming from. The opposition has gone silent only Charles Clarke seems to have something clear to say-'back Brown or sack him'.

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  • 2. At 2:24pm on 22 Sep 2008, virtualsilverlady wrote:

    Where did James Purnell get those rediculous figures from.
    They were very well rehearsed to the point
    where he didn't even hear the questions he was being asked.
    A hard task for Andrew this morning trying to get any sense out of him.
    Thank goodness for Frank Field who is still the most experienced and sensible politician among the lot of them.
    He's the only one I still trust to answer a question honestly.
    Probably one of the only ones to retain his seat at the next election.
    What a fiasco this has become.

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  • 3. At 3:22pm on 22 Sep 2008, mike-jay wrote:

    The interview with James Purnell illustrated only two things: the firmly embedded new Labour habit of never answering awkward questions, but boringly spinning an optimistic mantra of achievements and policies, and the paucity of talent to replace Gordom Brown.

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  • 4. At 3:29pm on 22 Sep 2008, pilsden wrote:

    James Purnell was exceedingly annoying continuing the mantra of we are better placed, this is better than before etc as if it was a competition in failure.If there is a chance ask someone why savings are no better protected than a year ago when Northern Rock happened.All the problems have been known for a year what has been done.Also on a detail point they make a big thing about the short sell ban on certain business shares ,If they knew of the american scheme(which they should) then they knew the markets would respond upwards in financial stocks so why do it before the weekend?

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  • 5. At 6:06pm on 22 Sep 2008, Liarbrown wrote:

    Gordon Brown list of achievments have cost this country so much money, that it is difficult to even comprehend the figures.

    If we are to believe that he is going to authorise more Government borrowing to the scale mentioned in the news today. He would leave office with Nu Labour creating it's greatest achievement yet.

    A country with Government debt of over £700 billion and a nation with personal debt of over £1.3 trillion !

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  • 6. At 8:19pm on 22 Sep 2008, Iwilltellyouthis wrote:

    Dear Andrew

    Why not call it the Andrew Neil Show?

    Every time you asked James Parnell a qtn on "your" programme today you continually interupted him seconds into his replies.

    Why?

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  • 7. At 01:07am on 23 Sep 2008, threnodio wrote:

    What Mr.Darling should tell the City is that he is going to dump the PSBR into Paulson's bottomless pit and Mr. Brown should tell conference to 'go home and prepare for opposition'.

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  • 8. At 10:51am on 23 Sep 2008, generaljon wrote:

    It's about time all utility companies was returned to UK hands either private or nationalised this means all profits made by the companies should be spent in the UK for the uk
    I think it's a total disgrace that we the public have to pay for utilities, as we all have to use them yet the profits go out of the country

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  • 9. At 11:36am on 23 Sep 2008, hcidata wrote:

    I like the idea of free broadband access to all children but this is not going to happen.

    Firstly, broadband is not available in the whole countrty. In my village in Kent - not 17 miles from the Palace of Westminster - there are many people who cannot have broadband because they are too far from the exchange! If our village has problems when we are so close to London just think how bad it is in other parts of the UK.

    Secondly, many of those on benefits do not have a land line. They use pay-as-you-go phones so that when their money runs out they stop making calls. It is their way of living within their means. So, to get broadband they need a land line and that will incur a connection cost and a big temptation to use the land-line phone. This may give them unexpected large bills each month. Do we really want this to happen? What a double edged sword this "free" broadband could be!

    So Gordon (sorry but I do not respect you enough to call you Prime Minister) - make sure that the infasturcture in is place before you make these wild promises and make sure what you are offering is not a double edged sowrd.

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  • 10. At 4:03pm on 23 Sep 2008, bobinkitchener wrote:

    I've tried to watch Gordon Brown's speech on the BBC news website. No joy, I got a message saying that the BBC don't have the rights for international broadcast. Perhaps that is true, but it does beg the question, "why?"

    One of the things I would expect the UK to want to do, is to show the world a working democracy, and these days that means, at a minimum, TV broadcasting of Parliament and major political rallies and conferences of all colours. Whether it's the BBC being cheap, or the Labour party being stupid, it needs fixing quickly before the net general election is called.

    I could at least listen to the conference on Five Live, but to block the Daily Politics TV show is just mad.

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  • 11. At 11:18am on 24 Sep 2008, userzer0 wrote:

    On 23 April 1985 Coca Cola changed the formula of the drink and launched 'New Coke'. Despite positive taste tests the company was unprepared for the public backlash caused by nostalgic sentiments.

    'Coca Cola Classic' returned on 10 July the same year.

    There is hope for The Rt Hon The Lord Blair of Edinburgh yet!

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