'Killer' moth: murder machine or butterfly in the ointment?
'Killer moth begins English invasion' was the disturbing title of a story in the Daily Telegraph's recent Nature Notes linking the spread of the oak processionary moth to climate change.
This revelation about our imminent demise due to a furry Lepidoptera may have troubled you slightly. So just how deadly is this moth?
According to the Forestry Commission: 'The caterpillars have urticating (irritating) hairs that carry a toxin. These ... are considered a significant human health problem when populations reach outbreak proportions.'
The bad news is that you don't have to actually touch a caterpillar in order to turn into a wheezing, scratchy wreck. Why? Because the caterpillars' bristles do a 'take-away' toxin service: they can break off and deliver the poisonous cocktail direct to your unsuspecting nostrils. And although the caterpillars are only around from May to July, their bristles can survive for over a year.
But research published in the journal Pediatric Dermatology, 2006 plays down the risk: '...few instances of life-threatening anaphylactic reactions have been reported.' Indeed, say authors Sven Gottschling and Sascha Meyer, the vast majority of cases can be treated within the hour by popping a few anti-histamines or smearing on some steroid cream.
So while you can develop conjunctivitis, bronchial constriction, coughing, wheezing, weals and 'persistent itchy papules', the oak processionary moth is probably less of a 'killler' and more in the 'hayfever' bracket.
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Great post, Shanta !
Here's some more topics for future blogs:
1) A UK version of the Surface Stations.org project - get ordinary citizens to visit their local weather station.
2) A review of recent attempts to predict climate and weather. Just how many have turned out ? Just go through the BBC archives and put ticks or crosses against each one.
3) An interview with Bjorn Lomborg - he is a true believer, but says that other issues are more important. Issues like hunger, disease, war, etc...
4) Physics Professor David Mackay - again a true believer but he's worried that many "solutions" are fatuous: "Skipping one bath saves you as much energy as leaving your TV off standby for over six months"
5) Some low-carbon recipes - yummy ideas to tickle your taste buds while saving the planet.
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Hi Jack, I would love to interview the Lomborg - I phoned him up many months ago but he declined to get involved. I'll try again today.
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try Shaviv - he will explain why a crucial argument in the alarmists armoury is completed over estimated - cliamte sensitivity
http://www.phys.huji.ac.il/~shaviv/
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"try Shaviv . . ."
Then, just to be fair, talk to S. Rahmstorf about why he and others believe Shavivs claims to be wrong.
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/rahmstorf_etal_eos_2004.html
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now you see tim, i would agree with that, in fact i think there should be a real debate about this whole AGW thing.
Wasn't it Schneider who said recently that he would wipe the floor with climate realists and then backed down when the offer was accepted by Pielke?
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What Schneider actually said was: "If these guys think they are "winning" why don't they try to take on face to face real climatologists at real meetings - not fake ideology shows like Heartland Institute - but with those with real knowledge - because they'd be slaughtered in public debate by Trenberth, Santer, Hansen, Oppenheimer, Allen, Mitchell, even little ol' me."
http://www.examiner.com/x-9111-SF-Environmental-Policy-Examiner~y2009m5d24-The-global-warming-debates-Stephen-Schneider
Schnieder's reply to Pielke Snr offer was: "If Roger wants a debate, he can set one up at the American Meteorological Society meeting or the American Geophysical Union meeting and if dates work I'll be happy to go and will encourage others like Ben Santer or Kevin Trenberth to join in. That I would do, A presidential like debate format with shallow staccato jibes and no nuanced arguments, no - confusion only in that style. I never do those anymore."
http://www.examiner.com/x-9111-SF-Environmental-Policy-Examiner~y2009m6d1-Examinercom-exclusive-global-warming-debatesStephen-Schneider-part-2
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I'm aware of Schneiders reply
It sounds like a man backing down to me. First he offers the challenge, then after it is accepted by Pielke, tells us it's up to the acceptor to arrange things and he will attend if it fits in with his diary.
Surely, if one issues a challenge, which is accepted, it is the challengers responsibility to make the arrangements and clear his diary?
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Interesting thoughts about the debate.
It's time for the BBC to show different angles on climate change. Hardly a day goes by without some calamity being blamed on climate change.
Here is a recent example: Reindeer herds in global decline
Let's just start with the headline. Reindeer do not live globally. So the choice of word - global - is loaded.
We know what it's going to say and we only have to wait until paragraph 4 and yes
"...difficult for the deer to survive in a world warmed by climate change..."
But reading further on, the real cause of the problem in Canada is
"...human disturbance has increased, caused by logging, oil and gas exploration, and road building... with no mention of climate anything.
The author of this little piece never even asked the obvious question:
what is the world population of reindeer today and how does this compare with the past ?
So why does it matter what the BBC house opinion is on climate change ?
One big reason is that our ruling elite base their own worldview on what they see on the screen and hear on the radio. Our "climate czar" does not have any scientific background so is unable to form a rational opinion on different claims or computerised models. Instead he just goes with whatever will play well in North London.
I will let Jeremy Paxman of the BBC have the last word:
...the BBC's coverage of the issue abandoned the pretence of impartiality long ago...
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tim,
Pielke has agreed with Schneider on the venue etc and suggests a joint approach:
In a scientific debate, I have substantial peer reviewed publications by myself and others, that I would welcome an opportunity for Steve to respond to. I agree with Steve that an academic conference, with an audience of scientists, is the most appropriate forum. In terms of such a debate, I suggest to Steve that he and I write a letter to the AGU, AMS or other professional organization and together present this idea.
http://www.examiner.com/x-9111-SF-Environmental-Policy-Examiner~y2009m6d2-Examinercoms-exclusive-global-warming-debates-Roger-Pielke-Sr-part-1
Essentially Pielke is suggesting they get together, open their diary's and agree a time and date.
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still here Tim?
it seems Monckton has now challenged Hansen to a debate
bet that one doesn't happen either
the ball's in the AGW camp now
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"it seems Monckton has now challenged Hansen to a debate"
Yup, it won't happen because that's not where science is done.
It will only result with Monkton rambling on, dragging the debate in the mud and ignoring anything Hansen says.
Hansen probably has heard the saying "Never wrestle with a pig in the mud since you'll only get dirty and the pig'll enjoy it".
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"Essentially Pielke is suggesting they get together, open their diary's and agree a time and date."
That's the man whose own personal blog has "Comments off" on it?
He's willing to talk if he can get in front of the cameras (strange since it's Monkton who maintains that the IPCC do what they do to remain in the limelight, yet it's Monkton's mate who's doing it...) but not discuss on his blog where he can't get the attention he craves.
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"what is the world population of reindeer today and how does this compare with the past ? "
And what is the flying speed of the unladen swallow?
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"First he offers the challenge, then after it is accepted by Pielke, tells us it's up to the acceptor to arrange things and he will attend if it fits in with his diary."
And that's how it's done in business.
You offer up a meeting appointment, they see if they're free and if they are, they attend.
I take it that since you don't know this, you're unemployed and have been for a long time.
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"try Shaviv - he will explain why a crucial argument in the alarmists armoury is completed over estimated - cliamte sensitivity"
And does his climate sensitivity work in the paleoclimate record?
Does it work with the changes observed in the large volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo?
No, they don't.
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