Cyclones not getting worse but could be heading to Britain, says study
The suggestion by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that climate change might give birth to a new and fiercer breed of cyclones has been labelled 'a bit imprecise', according to new research.
The study ('Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?') published in the latest edition of the Journal of Climate, has found that there's probably no need to panic about future megastorms.
If you compare cyclones at the end of last century with those modelled for the present century, 'maximum wind speed is practically identical and occurs at the same time and place relative to the storm centre,' say authors Lennart Bengtsson, Kevin I Hodges and Noel Keenlyside.
But if you define 'intensity' in terms of how much rain the cyclones will dump, then we might have a problem. The cyclones we'll see in the future are likely to be wetter (by 11% if you're a stickler for detail) and that's apparently worth worrying about: '... increases in extreme precipitation ... will constitute a more severe problem for society than the possible risk of higher wind speeds'.
Even more unnervingly, the report suggests that Britain could become the next cyclone stomping ground. As the world warms, the cyclones which currently prefer to buffet the coasts of Greenland and Iceland with 'exceptionally strong winds' could well take to commuting through the British Isles instead.
However, the authors admit that their predictions are based on a single computer model. It might all be a storm in a teacup, so no need to batten down the hatches just yet.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~36~RS~)
Comments
How accurate are their previous forecasts ?
Global temperatures have flatlined since 2001: none of the computer models predicted this beforehand.
Complain about this comment
Flatlined? Oh dear, you've been reading those blogs again.
2008
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090116163206.htm
2007
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080116114150.htm
2006
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070213142902.htm
2005
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/01/060130154533.htm
Increased precipitation from hurricanes is a cause for concern; though wind-damage is very televisual, in the USA more people have died from inland flooding resulting from hurricanes. The majority of insurance claims are for flood damage.
If anyone is interested, both US oceanographer Bill Gray and NOAA have issued their forecasts for the forthcoming (Tropical Atlantic) 2009 hurricane season. Both their annual forecasting records are pretty good.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090521_atlantichurricane.html
Happy weekend y'all.
Complain about this comment
not that 10 years is a significant trend in climate, but the recent trend is down, although the overall trend over a 30 year period is up, so you are both right, you were just saying different things
Complain about this comment
Lie, damn lies, and statistics:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Temp_Blend.jpg
What I can't wait for is the combination of lower temperatures (greater uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere in the cooler oceans due to the -ve PDO and AMO cycles), coupled with the global economic downturn (already US output of CO2 in 2008 down year on year). Then we'll have to deal with a CO2 graph rolling over as well.
I wonder how you propose to scare the general public with graphs like that?
Complain about this comment
FYI The picture above is of a "polar low" The arctic variant of tropical
cyclones, which even in some cases even have a warm core, just like their
tropical "cousins"...
Complain about this comment
View these comments in RSS