Regional and global climate update

Thursday 4 October 2012, 18:10

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

Provisional Met Office statistics show that September across the UK was wetter than normal with 112mm, or 117% of the long term average.

It was also cooler but sunnier than normal.

Regionally, the North of England was much wetter than the rest of the country, with 133mm of rain, which is 165% of average, making it the wettest since September 2000.

It was also the 6th successive month where rainfall was above normal.

There were contrasts across our region though.

Yorkshire received 125mm or 170% of average rainfall, but Lincolnshire was much drier, with only 43.4mm or 80% of the long term average.

The unsettled theme looks set to continue, with more rain tonight and early next week, which could be potentially heavy, although the weekend is looking fine and dry.

Normally at the start of the month I update the UAH satellite global temperature for the previous month, for no other reason than it's published before any of the other measures.

But for technical reasons, which you can read about here, this is not yet available.

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Comments

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    When will the BBC be reporting on autumn arriving earlier and earlier then? *silence*

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    Piers Corbyn interviewed by Alan Tichmarsh!

    http://player.stv.tv/programmes/alan-titchmarsh/2012-10-03-1500/

    17.30 onwards.

    Being non-PC I could not possibly comment!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    I see Al Gore is putting his money where hiw mouth is

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/11727215/1/al-gore-walks-away-from-green-energy.html

    "Al Gore Walks Away From Green Energy"

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    "... for technical reasons..."

    Funny that these technical faults were only discovered during a period of warming.

    Is Spencer now saying that we can scrap the whole UAH database as a reliable global temperature record; or should we just chuck the warming parts?

    Highly peculiar.

    The truth will out.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    "UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2012: +?.?? deg. C"

    October 4th, 2012 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    "I’ve been receiving an increasing number of e-mails asking, basically, is there something wrong with the Aqua satellite daily global temperatures which are posted at the NASA Discover website?

    Well, John Christy and I are ready to say, “yes, there is”. "

    Read it all:-

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2012-deg-c/#comments

  • rate this
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    Comment number 6.

    Does anyone understand what is going on with UAH?
    I quote from the site:
    "The results suggest that there has been a spurious warming in Aqua AMSU LT which has reached close to 0.2 deg. C last month. It has been increasing over the last couple years. Do NOT expect the long term warming trend during 1979-2012 to decrease, though, because there are other changes to the long-term time series which cancels out the recent spurious warming."
    Does this mean that there is warming in the AQUA CH5 figures which are *not* reflected in the UAH anomalies?
    Otherwise, how can removal of the "spurious warming" not affect the long term trend?
    Is he only going to correct this in the September anomaly?
    Confused - you wll be!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 7.

    Regarding the U.K. figures for September, while the overall UK rainfall figure was nothing exceptional, at 117% of "normal", the HadUKP daily rainfall figures for England & Wales are interesting.
    These show a daily rainfall figure of 27.19mm for the 23rd, 18.79mm for the 24th, and 10.72mm for the 25th, a total of 56.7mm over the 3 days, which compares with the figure of 25.04mm for Sept. 19th 1981 and 38.25mm for the period Sept. 17th to 19th 1981, the period of the last similar period of low pressure which was quoted recently.
    So while I haven't looked at how this fits in with the long-term pattern, in terms of rainfall this storm does seem to have been more intense than the one in 1981.
    Nothing significant in that of course!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 8.

    Recent storm data has shown that hurricane/typhoon/tornado frequency has fallen, despite the media reports to the contrary. Nothing sells like bad news.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 9.

    @6 QV

    "Does anyone understand what is going on with UAH?"

    I don't and after reading the latest post not sure they do. Will just have to sit back and wait, should spark some very interesting discussions across the blogosphere.

    I have already learnt about a few new bits:-

    "Calibration"

    "The MSU and AMSU instruments were intended for day-to-day use in weather forecasting and thus were not calibrated to the precision needed for climate studies......"

    http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_introduction.html

    and more

    http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_validation.html

    Will now sit back and await developments

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

    6. QuaesoVeritas wrote:

    "Does anyone understand what is going on with UAH?"

    Apparently not, including Roy Spencer.

    It looks like he's not going to update the UAH database this month, but rather wait until their version 6 is ready in a few weeks then re-issue the whole set.

    Possibly the UAH value for September, as it stands, does something nasty to his nice polynomial trend line, that he adds 'for entertainment purposes only'?

    Like you, I don't see how, if the current noise is purely a warming signal as Spencer appears to say, it won't affect the trend. If it were an 'amplification' signal, perhaps caused by water vapour fluctuations in the LT due to ENSO, then that would make sense, because cooling caused during La Nina would also be exaggerated.

    Satellite data has long been suspected of being overly influenced by ENSO in any case.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 11.

    A UAH anomaly figure of 0.34c (0.338c) for September, the same as the original one for August, but that has been reduced to 0.21c (0.208c), along with most of the figures since 2010.
    As far as I can tell, the long-term trend has changed from 0.136c/decade to 0.131c/decade at the end of August.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 12.

    11.QuaesoVeritas:

    Very peculiar goings on.

    In any case, a very big jump between August and September, and September 2012 is joint 3rd warmest in UAH record. You have to go back to July 2011 to find an equally high monthly anoamally, and back to September 2010 to find one that was higher.

    Interestingly the 30 year trend reduces slightly but remains at +0.16C to 2 d.p. per decade; the same as every other global data set we have (+/-0.01C). The new revisions lower the UAH monthly anomalies by around -0.05C on average since 2010.

    Roy Spencer will be pleased to note that his beloved polynomial trend line (which has no predictive value) is downwards again. That should please the readership of WUWT, for whom I suspect it is chiefly intended. Try adding a 5th order polynomial to it instead of a 4th order one.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 13.

    #12. - newdwr54 wrote:
    "Interestingly the 30 year trend reduces slightly but remains at +0.16C to 2 d.p. per decade;"
    And to a single decimal place, they are still 0.2c/decade, but to zero decimal places, they are zero! ;-)

  • rate this
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    Comment number 14.

    I think Spencer has made it clear that he only adds the polynomial trend to wind people up. Those that are predisposed to be wound up that is. It seems to achieve this goal admirably.
    Shame that he's having a bit of bother with that NASA satellite. They don't make 'em like they used to - just can't get the staff.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 15.

    #14. - lateintheday wrote:
    "I think Spencer has made it clear that he only adds the polynomial trend to wind people up."
    When did he make that clear?
    I am not sure that he has.
    He used to say it was "for entertainment purposes only", but I am not so sure.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 16.

    QV, I can't say exactly, because he's constantly challenged (or admonished) for adding the polynomial trend, but my gut tells me it was early this year. Would have been at his own or the WUWT site. Seem to remember him conceding that it entertained him, in a rather childish way (by his own account) knowing that it annoyed some people.
    My memory isn't what it used to be . . sigh.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 17.

    Pingosan #1

    Autumn arriving earlier? Depends what you mean by autumn.

    By the reckoning of weather and temps. so far it could be said to be early - with a cool September and with October, as yet, showing no sign of being more than average at best. All following on from a dull cool summer.

    Ironically, this might give the impression that autumn is late. Fruit and seeds slow to ripen. Autumn flowers behind schedule. Lingering insects trying to catch up on delayed life cycles - which if they are all lucky will not be curtailed by an early cold spell and frost.

    Given temp levels at the moment, frost does not seem out of the question and there seems little sign that the heat missing for much of the growing season will be made up now. In any case, as late as October, only the most phenomenal warmth will come near to achieving this.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 18.

    Greensand#2

    Well, what can you expect from Tichmarsh? Talk about scraping the bottom of the controversy barrel to raise interest in his programme. But then he's so "lovely and nice" isn't he?

    I wonder how much they paid Corbyn? Or was it the other way round do you think!

    Incidentally - was the feller on the right an astrolloger or an astronomer? He was labelled as both at different points! Probably makes no difference. I always thought it took millions if not hundreds of millions of years for the "spiral arms" of the galaxy to revolve let alone passing in and out of cosmic dust clouds therein in periods of decades!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 19.

    @18 jk

    "Well, what can you expect from Tichmarsh?"

    Nowt!

    "I wonder how much they paid Corbyn?"

    Nowt?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 20.

    14. lateintheday wrote:

    "I think Spencer has made it clear that he only adds the polynomial trend to wind people up."

    I think he does it for the WUWT audience. His monthly UAH update is always carried by WUWT. It has been suggested that Spencer first took up adding polynomial trends to his popular version of the UAH data after correspondence with Canadian oil industry engineer Allan MacRae back in autumn 2008: http://deepclimate.org/2009/04/09/the-alberta-oil-boys-network-spins-global-warming-into-cooling/

    MacRae had helped a WUWT guest poster to use a high order polynomial trend on a temperature graphic, which, back then, gave the UAH data the following look: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/uah7908.JPG

    MacRae used that graph, which is a 6th order polynomial, to make the ludicrous claim that "Since just January 2007, the world has cooled so much that ALL the global warming over the past three decades has disappeared!": http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/is_this_the_beginning_of_global_cooling/

    Shortly after that 'ICECAP' post from MacRae went up, Spencer started adding a fourth order polynomial trend to the UAH data published on his site and at WUWT. Fourth order polynomial is less grossly distorting of the data, but it still gave the recent UAH data a nice downward look at the time. (I don't remember ever having seen a chart of UAH data with a linear trend featured at WUWT, even though it's the linear trend that UAH publish monthly with their official data update.)

    I'm sure QV, greensand, and possibly yourself can quite easily graph the latest UAH data on excel and add a sixth order polynomial trend to it. If not, I'll happily talk you through the process. Let's just say that I seriously doubt that Allan MacRae is still referring to a sixth order as "the best polynomial" fit for the UAH data.

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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