Quiet spell of autumn weather on the way

Thursday 18 October 2012, 16:23

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

After what has seemed like a relentless period of unsettled weather stretching back to the end of March, it's nice to be able to report that a quieter spell of weather seems likely next week - although talk of an 'Indian Summer', for our region at least, is a little far-fetched.

Friday and Saturday look generally dry, although there will be some fog to contend with in the mornings.

The change will come courtesy of a warm front which will bring some rain and drizzle from the southeast later on Sunday.

Thereafter, the good news is that a ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather, meaning much drier weather on the whole next week.

And at first glance, it is easy to get carried away with the fact that the air which is on its way from the continent is warm.

But, unfortunately for us, it has to travel across the North Sea.

And as it does so, the warmer air coming into contact with the colder North Sea is likely to generate extensive low cloud at times.

In these situations it is possible to get quite high temperatures - for example where there is shelter from the prevailing south-easterly wind, like west of the Pennines, or areas where the warm air only has to travel across a short sea track, like southern parts of the UK.

But for our part of the world, skies are likely to be predominantly cloudy - although with light winds and generally dry conditions (apart from drizzle which can form in extensive low cloud), it should be an improvement compared with what we've been used to.



And let's hang on to the possibility that even here cloud breaks can occur in this set up, leading to at least the chance of some warm sunshine at times.

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Comments

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    Take it you don't fancy the 1065Mb greenland high then Paul that's been showing on the GFS repeatedly? Low solar showing its presence felt already.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    UK experiences 'weirdest' weather By Roger Harrabin

    'Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that they did not discern any pattern that suggested manmade climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

    She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.'
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19995084

    What no CO2 warming, for another 10-20 years, good to know it's only us that are going to cool whilst the rest of the world bake in increased temperatures!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    "although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain."

    Is that like how temperatures haven't been rising for the last 16 years? Good job they called it a projection rather than a prediction.

    Harrabin must have written that article through gritted teeth, knowing he couldn't blame it on despicable Man.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    'But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: "Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend - the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability."'

    Confirms what QV has been telling us!

    '"Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said.'

    Is this written to convey that natural variability will always override the long term trend to drier summers? Certainly makes the case for natural variability stronger than has been in the past, perhaps it will be explained by a post on the Met Office news blog in the same manner as the recent DM article.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    so its moved onto global weirding now has it?

    and when did harraboin come back?

    more importantly has he explained himself re certain relationships he had with certain bodies he was reporting on without telling his readers about said relationship

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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