'High risk' of further flooding this winter

Monday 5 November 2012, 17:04

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

Ground water levels remain unseasonably high across parts of Yorkshire following the very wet conditions this summer, according to the Environment Agency.

Although autumn is traditionally the wettest season of the year, the land is more saturated than normal because of excessive rainfall since the end of March, leading to an increased risk of further river flooding throughout the remainder of the year.

In fact with little if any evaporation during the winter months, rivers are likely to remain susceptible to further flooding until spring next year, when evaporation rates increase once more and the land is given a chance to dry out.

October continued the wet theme, turning out to be another disappointing month.

Rainfall averaged across England and Wales was 120 per cent of the 1981-2010 average. This means that only 22 Octobers were wetter in the last 100 years.

It was colder than average too, with a Central England Temperature of 9.7C, making it the coldest October since 2003. This is 1C below the 1981-2010 average, and in the last 100 years only 27 were colder.

The first half of November is likely to remain unsettled, with further rain expected at times.

Follow me on twitter @Hudsonweather

Comments

Jump to comments pagination
 
  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 1.

    They told us there'd be Mediterranean summers, and to get used to mild and wet winters.

    I think after this latest advice, we should now expect a dry winter.

    These alarmists just don't learn do they?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 2.

    Are the Environment Agency basing this on UKMO rainfall forecasts?
    If so, let's not forget that they predicted a drier than average summer, which turned out to be the wettest on record.
    I still can't believe that they got away with that, without more publicity.
    Meanwhile the RSS global anomaly for October shows a fall from 0.383c to 0.294c.
    N.H. down from 0.45c to 0.317c and S.H. down from 0.313c to 0.271c.
    Also, the Continental USA is down from +0.276c, to -0.58c, the lowest October since 2009.
    That might point to a fall in HadCRUT3/4 to about 0.44c.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 3.

    If you build on flood plain and cover your front garden with concrete to extend the drive then there will be more flooding.
    Storm drainage is enclosed and easy to block with silt, leaves etc. Open, ''french'' style drains carry more water and blockages, if any, are easy to locate and clear. Any blockage not cleared will be overflowed by storm water which will then return to the drain. Blockages in enclosed drains cause water backup and upstream flooding.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 4.

    UAH also down slightly, at +0.331 global: http://www.drroyspencer.com/

    Makes October 2012 the second warmest on record globally in UAH, behind 2005.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 5.

    2. QuaesoVeritas:

    The RSS global figure for October 2012 makes it the fourth warmest Oct. on their record. There's still a big difference between UAH and RSS in real terms; the RSS figure adjusted to UAH anomaly is +0.20, so -0.13 lower than UAH for October (although the rate of warming overall in 2012 has been slightly higher in RSS than UAH because it started from a lower base, especially Feb).

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 6.

    So UK October 2012 was much colder than normal and UK October 2011 was much warmer than normal, but interestingly sunlight and rainfall were pretty much the same.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/

    So if it's not sunlight and rain (both inc clouds), what is the reason? Maybe it's wind direction, ie arctic blasts and the like. Perhaps October 2011 saw warmer winds blowing in and 2012 saw colder winds blowing in, on average.

    If this can affect monthly temperatures so much why is there not an index for it? Ie some kind of single value for a month. Could call it "northerly windiness". Then it could be graphed. The trend might be as important as graphing mean temperature.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 7.

    #5. - newdwr54 wrote:
    "The RSS global figure for October 2012 makes it the fourth warmest Oct. on their record. There's still a big difference between UAH and RSS in real terms; the RSS figure adjusted to UAH anomaly is +0.20, so -0.13 lower than UAH for October (although the rate of warming overall in 2012 has been slightly higher in RSS than UAH because it started from a lower base, especially Feb)."

    I think this might be something to do with the way RSS handle the polar temperatures. I believe that they don't use the figures above 82.5 and below -70 degrees because they consider them unreliable, whereas UAH do.
    This may also account for why UAH shows an increase in the SH anomaly this month, whereas RSS shows a fall, although I won't know for certain until I see the detailed UAH figures.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 8.

    #6. - quake wrote:
    "If this can affect monthly temperatures so much why is there not an index for it? Ie some kind of single value for a month. Could call it "northerly windiness". Then it could be graphed. The trend might be as important as graphing mean temperature."

    I think that you are correct in that wind direction has played a part in the relative temperatures between 2011 and 2012.
    In general however, there is very little data available for both wind direction and wind speed, from the UKMO.
    Some time ago, I tried to obtain some historical wind speed data, in order to check whether speeds were increasing or decreasing and all I could find (as far as I can remember), were some overlapping 30 year and out of date records for some specific sites, which incidentally showed that average wind speeds might have declined, but given the sparcity of data, it is difficult to prove. However, if anyone says it is getting more windy due to "climate change", ask them how they know!
    I suspect that this information might not be available to the general public because it is of some strategic/commercial value to those generating electricity using wind power.
    I agree that given the climatological significance of wind speed and direction, there should be data available equivalent to temperature and rainfall data.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 9.

    #6 quake

    'So if it's not sunlight and rain (both inc clouds)'

    Bit of a difference between UK and England for rainfall and sunshine in 2011

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 10.

    The Met are forecasting slightly colder than normal for Nov/Dec. If they are right, we'll likely get the secong coldest year since 1996.

    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/britain-shivers-in-october/

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 11.

    Re RSS and UAH numbers - don't forget we are just coming out of a mild El Nino. The 12 month running average is still running well below the average for the last 10 yrs.

    My guess is that Dec will end up around 0.25C for UAH.

    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/global-temperature-updateseptember-2012/

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 12.

    We haven't reached El Nino yet. Officially we are still in ENSO neutral. El Nino requires five consecutive 3-month averages of ONI above +0.5C. So far we haven't had one. The latest 3-month period, August-October had an ONI of +0.4C.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 13.

    10.PaulHomewood wrote:

    "The Met are forecasting slightly colder than normal for Nov/Dec. If they are right, we'll likely get the secong coldest year since 1996."

    According to its charts, the MO's UK forecast for November is centred at 6.1C, while Nov-Jan is centred at 4.5C. Even if December 2012 comes in at the 1996 level of 2.5C (which would require a warmer than average January 2013 if the 4.5C Nov-Jan projection is accurate), then the UK 30-year linear trend would still be above +0.3C/decade - about twice the global trend reported by UAH over the same period. However, a cold December would continue the decline in the 30-year UK December trend, which is anomalous and still requires an explanation.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 14.

    11. PaulHomewood wrote:

    "Re RSS and UAH numbers - don't forget we are just coming out of a mild El Nino. The 12 month running average is still running well below the average for the last 10 yrs."

    The UAH Nov-Oct average for the 10 years from 2002 to 2011 is +0.19C. Nov-Oct 2012 is +0.13C - a difference of 0.06C. I would hesitate to describe 2012 as "running well below the average" on that basis.

    Especially bearing in mind that 6 of the past 12 months are classified as having fallen within a La Nina event, whereas none, as quake mentions above, are classified as having fallen within an El Nino event.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 15.

    11. PaulHomewood

    From your blog link, you say you're using running 12 month averages because "...we often get fixated with calendar year figures, which obviously change a good deal from year to year."

    Surely the same caveat must apply to rolling 12 month averages? All we're seeing at each data point is a snapshot of the previous 12 months temperature.

    The WMO recommends 30 years as the 'classic period' from which to infer trends from continuous temperature data. A rolling 360 month average is therefore more likely to provide you with instructive data than is a rolling 12 month one. Try constructing a rolling 360 month average chart using UAH (or any other data set). You should see a strong pattern.

    Maybe you can write up a blog post on it?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 16.

    To Quake #6

    Wind direction perhaps. Or was it the jet stream continuing to be south of its normal position? This would bring in colder air even on a westerly flow and sunshine or rainfall levels would not necessarily be a factor.

    One point of interest is that although cold, October did not bring any but a touch of frost. Not until this week has the air temp dropped below freezing (here in E Yorks. at least).

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 17.

    Goodness - I've been away on hol - then, just reading the past week's posts!

    I do hope "elasticjesus" or whatever he's called, keeps on writing.

    Looks as though he might give all you smug little gang of naughty sceptic boys the good hiding you jolly well deserve.

    A "troll" indeed. You must be hitting the spot PJ

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 18.

    Difficult to reply to TEJ when the post is closed for comments.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 19.

    Floods? cant be right - or these bouts of persistent cold weather, damp chilly summers etc

    Because by now we are supposed to resemble the south of france climate wise and facing water shortages!

    That was the theory at least - what happened - thought it was settled science

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 20.

    Jkiller, you may find TEJ is too busy to post since he's still "fighting a whole western civilisation" amongst other things.
    Of course, just because he's delusional, that doesn't make him wrong. Similarly, cutting and pasting other people's words and passing them off as his own doesn't help his credibility, but neither does it logically defeat his argument.
    On another note, I'm not sure what you mean by 'any but a touch of frost' (local saying or typo) but I heard it was snowing a couple of weeks ago in Beverley and of course, it snowed in the West Country fairly recently. I don't attach any significance to either event BTW.

 

Page 1 of 4

This entry is now closed for comments

Share this page

More Posts

Previous
First cold snap of the season

Thursday 25 October 2012, 15:23

Next
Antarctica sea ice & latest global temperatures

Monday 12 November 2012, 16:05

About this Blog

Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

Blog Updates

Stay updated with the latest posts from the blog.

Subscribe using:

What are feeds?

About Paul

I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

BBC Local

Get the latest news, sport, weather, travel and features from your local area.

Archive posts

For Paul's previous blogs, please click here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/archives.shtml