Global temperature update

Friday 7 September 2012, 16:27

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

Global temperatures in August were 0.34C above the 30 year running average, according to the UAH satellite measure, showing a small increase on the previous month, shown below.



It's the 3rd warmest August in this particular satellite data set which began in 1979.

Using the more standard 1961-1990 average used by the World Meteorological Organisation, global temperatures were approximately 0.593C above average.

The recovery in global temperatures since the turn of the year has in part been due to a rise in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, as 'La Nina' conditions faded, shown below.



Most computer predictions expect positive sea surface temperature anomalies in this part of the world to persist into next year, with weak El Nino conditions becoming established.

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Comments

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    'Most computer predictions expect positive sea surface temperature anomalies in this part of the world to persist into next year, with weak El Nino conditions becoming established'

    Predictions are starting to move towards a positive neutral scenario through next year which means that there will be no large release of heat from the oceans and no replenishment of heat into the oceans.
    Unfortunately that could be the start of lower global temperatures, time will tell.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    The relatively low UAH figure for August was mainly due to falling temperatures (as reflected in AQUA CH5), from about the 10th to the 21st of the month.
    During the remainder of the month, temperatures fell much more slowly than is normal at that time of year, resulting in higher temperature anomalies. The mean anomaly for the last 7 days was probably around 0.39c.
    This situation has continued during the first few days of September, and there was actually quite a large rise in temperature on Sept. 4th.
    It's early days yet, but this may point to quite a moderate increase in the anomaly for September, relative to August. This would, of course, apply to other temperature anomaly series.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    Stll no global warming since 1998. Why are we still wasting money on uneconomic windmills that destabilise the national grid and wreck the country's finances? A rather expensive vanity project.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    I’ve heard it said that global temperatures have risen 1 degree C over the past century.

    http://junksciencearchive.com/MSU_Temps/NCDCabs1880.html

    Tell that to the NCDC.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    Ironically both the 'AGW- Co2 warming camp' and the 'solarist cooling camp' are now predicting the Jet Stream to move southward with concomitant weather changes to back up both belief systems. Could they both be wrong?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 6.

    Pingosan: this is a moot point. Scotland is touted as being 'the Saudi Arabia of renewables, yet only 0.15% of world anthropgenic CO2 is generated in Scotland and only 0.05% is generated from electricity production. Taking this and the generally low and unpredictable amounts of electricity produced by wind into account, it is palpably obvious that all the wind turbines planned, will have as much impact on climate change as all the king's horses and all the king's men were to Humpty Dumpty.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 7.

    I have been waiting for Paul to talk about global temperatures to post our forecasts for 2012
    Figures in brackets are last year’s forecast

    “Warmists”
    +0.48 Met Office (+0.44)
    +0.45 Newdwr54 (N/A)
    +0.43 John Cogger (N/A)

    “Neutralists”
    +0.42 Mr Bluesky
    +0.42 Lazarus
    +0.41 quake (+0.36)
    +0.40 Paul Briscoe
    +0.40 Gagetfriend (+0.30)
    +0.40 NeilHamp ( +0.27)

    “Coolists”
    +0.37 Lateintheday’s Holly Bush
    +0.34 QuaesoVeritas (+0.31)
    +0.29 millinia (+0.24)
    +0.29 LabMunkey (+0.25)
    +0.28 ukpahonta (+0.35) (2011 winning entry)

    I have not yet worked out the current year's mean.
    QV usually has these things at his fingertips

    2012 forecasts have not yet been found for:-

    SmokingDeepThroat (+0.39)
    Ken Sharples( +0.18)
    nibor25( +0.15)
    jkiller56

    Highest HadCRUT Years to date
    1998 0.529
    2012 0.48? (Met.Office forecast for this year)
    2005 0.474
    2010 0.470
    2003 0.467
    2002 0.455
    2004 0.444

  • rate this
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    Comment number 8.

    #7. - NeilHamp wrote:
    "I have not yet worked out the current year's mean.
    QV usually has these things at his fingertips"
    Based on the monthly figures, the simple average to July was 0.371c, but
    according to the MO annual data files, the figure was 0.349c.
    That seems more likely to reflect the MO method of calculation, but it is obviously lower
    than the simple average.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 9.

    Based on the simple mean, it will take monthly averages of about 0.63c for the remainder of the year for the MO forecast to be correct.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

    Hi QV, do you have any data re the "first" UKMO Decadal Forecast 2005 to 2015?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 11.

    On the other hand, in order for my own forecast of 0.34c to be correct, the average for the remainder of the year will have to be 0.3c.
    I'm not sure which is more likely to be the case!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 12.

    As it hasn't warmed since 1998, it is useful to look at the graph at the top of the page and look at the left of 1998 and then the right. Which are lower? The temps on the left or those on the right? Which years sit above the average?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 13.

    My money's on you, QV.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 14.

    #10. - greensand wrote:
    "Hi QV, do you have any data re the "first" UKMO Decadal Forecast 2005 to 2015?"
    I'm not entirely surewhat you mean gs.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 15.

    Greensand
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

    That's it, the white line is their prediction. The three decadel periods are highlighted by the red shading for confidence levels. The prediction covering 2005 to 2015 was made in June 2005.
    Up until the turn of the century the model(s) used did well apart from Mt Pinatubo eruption and the 1998 super El Nino, unpredictable events I would grant. The 2005 prediction is looking way off the mark even though it has remained within the confidence boundary for the period so far. To get near to their 2005-2015 prediction for the second half of the decade a rise from 0.34C current average of 0.2C, as shown by the blue line, is needed which given the way ENSO is shaping up, just isn't going to happen.
    When the MET are willing to discuss the prediction, I don't think this will be until after the end of the prediction period, we may discover if the same model(s) and variables were used for the three predictions. As can be seen from the blue line giving a current prediction to 2016, it doesn't look as though anything has changed with the model(s) as yet.

    Perhaps the model(s) will be refined after 2015!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 16.

    'One has to back to the 1940s to find the previous time that a Hadcrut3 record was not beaten in 10 years or less.'

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/09/uah-global-temperature-update-for-august-2012-0-34-deg-c/#comment-54639

    One for a rainy day, QV?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 17.

    For reference the source of Paul's end comment is probably here:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

    'Most of the dynamical models, along with roughly one-half of the statistical models, now predict the onset of El Niño beginning in August-October 2012, persisting through the remainder of the year (Fig. 6). The consensus of dynamical models indicates a borderline moderate strength event (Niño 3.4 index near +1.0°C), while the statistical model consensus indicates a borderline weak El Niño (+0.4° to +0.5°C). Supported by the model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, the official forecast calls for the development of most likely a weak El Niño during September 2012, persisting through December-February 2012-13'

  • rate this
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    Comment number 18.

    15. ukpahonta wrote:

    "That's it, the white line is their prediction. The three decadel periods are highlighted by the red shading for confidence levels. The prediction covering 2005 to 2015 was made in June 2005."

    Many thanks ukpahonta, but I am not sure. I had quite a discussion with Richard Betts about this and he agreed it was far from clear and promised to talk to the author of the page. However he came back later to state that the "forecasts" that make up the white line were "retrospective" carried out as verification of the model utilised to make the "blue line" prediction i.e. the one starting in Sept 2011. As clarification he pointed to the following at the bottom of the page you linked to:-

    "Verification"

    "Retrospective forecasts have been made from numerous dates in the past. Some of these are shown in the top global annual temperature forecast figure (white curves and red uncertainty regions from 1985, 1995 and 2005)"

    So I am not sure that the white line is a forecast made in 2005 or a hindcast/verification? I think the latter for two reasons, one, RB's comments although IIRC he was not totally clear and two, the fact that the white line is continuous what are the chances of 3 predictions made 10 years apart blending exactly into one line? I know the MO are good but...

  • rate this
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    Comment number 19.

    @15. ukpahonta

    Sorry forgot to mention RB did state that the MO Decadal Forecast was a new "modelling system/technology" still in its infancy pointing to the relevant paper (can't find it right now) but he did state (quite strongly!) that the first Decadal Prediction made was made in 2005. So at least the June 1985 and 1995 referenced on the chart are retrospective and I suspect so is the 2005 one.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 20.

    14.QuaesoVeritas wrote:

    "I'm not entirely surewhat you mean gs."

    Hi QV sorry for being vague. Sometime ago you posted some data you had acquired from the MO re their latest Decadal Forecast, the one strting in Sept 2011. I think it was the monthly ensemble mean numbers ?

    Just wondered if you had similar data for the 2005 to 2015 forecast.

    Regards

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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