Dry weather returns to UK following 2nd wettest year

Thursday 3 January 2013, 11:27

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

UPDATE at 1pm on Mon 7th Jan

2012 was provisionally 3rd wettest on record according to the England & Wales rainfall series which started in 1766, behind 1872 and 1786. December was also the wettest since 1978 in the same dataset.

ENDS

2012 averaged across the UK was the second wettest on record in data which stretches back to 1910, falling short of a new record by only 6.6mm.

In total 1330.7mm fell last year, compared with the average of 1154mm.

A new record has been set across England and Wales with 1205mm of rain.

And locally new records have been set for Yorkshire, with 1230.8mm (136% of average) and Lincolnshire with 841.3mm (135% of average).

It's been a remarkable run of wet years in the UK since 1998; 6 years are now in the top 10 wettest - 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2008 & 2012.

Even more striking are figures based on the much longer England and Wales rainfall data series, first started in 1766.

2012 is provisionally in the top 4 wettest in 246 years (the other years being 2000, 1872 & 1786).

Also of significance is that 2012 is the only year in this 246 year data set in which 2 calendar months set new records for rainfall: April and June.

2012 has certainly been a remarkable year which has seen the jet stream too far south for long periods of time.

But weather patterns are very different as we head into early 2013. The jet stream has re-positioned itself further north, with high pressure building across the country.

This means an emphasis on much drier weather across the UK as whole in the next few days, which will come as a huge relief to many, although rain is expected early next week.

Follow me on twitter @Hudsonweather

Comments

Jump to comments pagination
 
  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 81.

    76.
    At 13:11 7th Jan 2013, QuaesoVeritas wrote: The forecast probability that it will be dry is only 15%, so in effect they are saying that it is marginally more likely to be wet, but whatever happens, they will claim they are correct.
    Not much use as a forecast really, but it seems to be the way things are going.

    I guess I should have added the sarc suffix to my post, really they should be ashamed of taking taxpayers money when they come out with a forecast like that. Will be interesting to see what really happens.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 82.

    ENSO regions have cooled off a bit according to the BOM wrap up. Still got that large pool of sub surface cool water too. Is that likely to reach the surface at any time or does the upwelling only/mainly occur close to the coast?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 83.

    LITD

    “ENSO regions have cooled off a bit according to the BOM wrap up”

    Yup and confirmed by Reynolds ENSO area SST’s:-

    http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=oiv2.ctl&ptype=ts&var=ssta&level=1&op1=none&op2=none&day=03&month=jan&year=2012&fday=02&fmonth=jan&fyear=2013&lat0=-5&lat1=5&lon0=-170&lon1=120&plotsize=800x600&title=&dir=


    “Is that likely to reach the surface at any time or does the upwelling only/mainly occur close to the coast?”

    Not sure, but you can keep an eye on the movement of warm/cool surface anomalies here:-

    http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

    Updated daily

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 84.

    #79. - ukpahonta wrote:
    "Richard Betts has posted a reply over at Tallblokes.

    As I suspected the new model used is HadGEM3 which looks to be aimed at more commercial needs of mid range forecasts, 2-3 years for business use, which is why it is now limited to 5 year predictions.
    See the thread for details."

    Whatever the reason for the change in the forecast, if we assume that the new one is correct then by definition, the previous one was wrong and those of us (unqualified ignoramuses), who said that it was biased towards excessive temperatures, were correct.

    Or can there not be "right and wrong" in forecasting models, only differences?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 85.

    #69. - newdwr54 wrote:
    "It can't be HadCRUT4, because 1998 isn't the warmest year in that data set. The curtain descends once more.
    Help."
    Having done the sums, I am almost certain that the thick black line is the running
    12 month average of HadCRUT3, NOAA & GISS, monthly figures after adjustment to 1971-2000.
    The fainter black lines are the individual figures but you can't tell which is which as they are all the same colour.
    For example the faint line which rises above the black line in 1998 is HadCRUT3, whereas the faint line which falls below the black line in 2000, is GISS.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 86.

    #71. - Pkthinks wrote:
    "Looks like a combination of metrics applying a 12 month mean (such as wood for trees index) "
    Similar but not quite the same (see above).
    Is there an explanation of how WFT calculate their index?
    I suspect that it includes UAH/RSS.
    For some reason the MO don't use those.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 87.

    QuaesoVeritas wrote:

    "But didn't we have droughts and floods in the past, before the warming we know about?"

    Yes we did and that is my point. Every climate event in the last decades can be compared to some previous historical event. Australia has had wild fires before but when has it had them so widespread and at the same time it has a record breaking heatwave? England has had floods before but when has it ever been so widespread with so many records broken? We often hear complaints about people building on flood plains but flood plains exist that haven't before due to areas getting more rain than ever recorded. The US had a tornado outbreak over Christmas, unusual but not unheard of but when has it ever happened in a year when so many of it's high temperatures records have been broken?

    Its not the fact that there is a particular flood or drought, it is the sheer number with other climate extremes occurring in the same period.

    Stephen Wilde thinks I should get out more and read some history but that is exactly what he hasn't done. At no time in recorded history have these types of warming and extreme events occurred within the same time span.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 88.

    #87. - Lazarus wrote:
    "We often hear complaints about people building on flood plains but flood plains exist that haven't before due to areas getting more rain than ever recorded."

    There are no more flood plains now than in the past, only more homes built on them.
    Where there are rivers, there are flood plains, but rain ends up in rivers more quickly than before because of the change in land use. This is confirmed by the Environment Agency.
    Total rainfall in England & Wales this year is less than in 1768 and 1852.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 89.

    #87. - Lazarus wrote:
    "At no time in recorded history have these types of warming and extreme events occurred within the same time span."
    There is no way of proving that there are more extreme events now than in the past. Communications, and records are better now than they were in the past.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 90.

    #86 re QuaesoVeritas ? explanation for WFT index

    Yes, there is quite a nice page explaining this and the baseline adjustments required

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#wti

    I presume they leave out UAH and RSS as they independantly allow for regional oceanic effects which are already more exagerated in the satellite measurements. That is my simple understanding of the HadGem3 model

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/climate-models/hadgem3


    http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#wti

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 91.

    #84 QV

    I'm getting the feeling that even the Met Office are removing the catastrophic side of things, so it's a move in the right direction. I don't think you will ever get an admission of being wrong, it's not part of the script.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 92.

    78. QuaesoVeritas wrote:

    "I received a reply from the MO saying my request has been passed to the "Climate Change Enquiry Co-ordinator", but that person is only employed part-time, so it may take a while."

    I guess the 'climate change co-ordinator' is the same person who writes the press releases then?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 93.

    The news about the lower Met. Office temperature forecasts has "broken" on the BBC this morning, with an item by Roger Harribin on the R4 News this morning.
    I can't find anything on the website and I haven't had a chance to check the T.V. yet.
    Hopefully this will be the topic of the next Paul Hudson blog!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 94.

    The announcement was fairly low in the running order on the 8am R4 news, but it didn't appear in the 9am news at all.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 95.

    @QV 93.

    Yes, I heard this too both at 6.30 on the news bulletin (without Harrabin) and at 7.00 (with).
    He is still pushing the idea that once CO2 induced warming has a chance to re-establish itself over the 'temporary' (5 yr or so) ocean/solar influences we will all warm up again.
    It looks, however, like we will be having to wait a good bit longer before the cooling signals let go and one wonders how, at the end of this 5 yr period, he will re-sell
    CO2 warming to a chillier world.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 96.

    #94 QV

    Yes you're right, a low profile piece on the 8am and nowt at 9. Perhaps too many folk are dependent on the gravy train of funds for there to be too much made of this and that's why it isn't yet being treated as a revelation! We'll no doubt 'watch this space' !

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 97.

    As we are approaching the dreaded 100 comments I have just been back and checked the previous thread and still cannot access “Page 2” or “Last” by the normal route of simply clicking on it. So maybe somebody in “moderation” could flag up the fault?

    For those who are not aware there is a work around, right click on “Page 2” or “Last” and select open in new tab. This appears to have the added bonus that when renewing the page it does not default back to Page 1.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 98.

    There was a very short item about it on the BBC News Channel around 9:40, but if you blinked you would have missed it. Much more time was given to the new David Bowie album release, a much more important subject. No appearance by Roger Harribin but that might come later.
    For some reason the news reader was laughing when she read the bit about the MO forecast and had to apologise. Not sure why she was laughing, the previous item had been about mass shootings in the U.S.A.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 99.

    BOM latest ENSO forecast:-

    "POAMA Long-Range Outlook"

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml

    Not sure if I am reading this correctly but it appears to show that they see an increasing probability of “Model cool frequency” towards the middle of the year and “Model neutral frequency” reducing until August.

    Interesting, did not expect that, time will tell how good a forecast it turns out to be.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 100.

    #97. - greensand wrote:
    "As we are approaching the dreaded 100 comments I have just been back and checked the previous thread and still cannot access “Page 2” or “Last” by the normal route of simply clicking on it. So maybe somebody in “moderation” could flag up the fault?"

    Strange, I don't seem to have that problem. Which browser are you using?
    I am using IE8. Anyway, the work around is quite useful in it's own right, to stay on the second page.
    Sorry that this post is pushing us evern closer to 100, but I suppose it was going to happen sooner or later.

 

Page 5 of 7

This entry is now closed for comments

Share this page

More Posts

Previous
How the Arctic may be impacting UK summers

Monday 17 December 2012, 12:48

Next
Met Office scale back global warming forecast

Tuesday 8 January 2013, 15:19

About this Blog

Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

Blog Updates

Stay updated with the latest posts from the blog.

Subscribe using:

What are feeds?

About Paul

I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

BBC Local

Get the latest news, sport, weather, travel and features from your local area.

Archive posts

For Paul's previous blogs, please click here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/archives.shtml