Widespread heavy rain on its way

Tuesday 14 May 2013, 16:42

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

The UK will be affected by some very disturbed weather in the next few days, as two separate weather systems threaten appreciable rainfall to many areas.

 

The first system will bring heavy rain northwards to Yorkshire and Lincolnshire through this evening.

 

15-20 mm is expected quite widely across the area in the next 24 hours, with higher totals locally, especially over the Pennines.

 

Even snow is possible over the higher Pennines later tonight, due to the intensity of rain lowering the air temperature, in a process known as evaporative cooling.

 

The heavy rain will slowly clear northwards tomorrow, with a return to sunshine and showers on Thursday and Friday.

 

The next system looks set to move across much of the UK this weekend.

 

The timing and positioning of this next area of heavy rain is uncertain at this stage, with current projections bringing it into Yorkshire and Lincolnshire later on Saturday.

 

The heaviest rain may occur to the south of our area – with some parts of the UK in the next 5 days recording a month’s worth of rain.

 

Farmers and gardeners will welcome the rain following a very dry April, which saw a significant rainfall deficit.

 

But it’s all rather far removed from a front page article in the Daily Express written just two weeks ago, which you can read by clicking here.

 

 

Follow me on twitter @Hudsonweather

 

Comments

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    We should not forget that water really is the element that controls global climate and gives life to virtually everything on earth. I went swimming today - it always reminds me that I used to be a fish. So rain is a good thing (mostly)

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    Comment number 2.

    Yes, a short, sharp, shower overhead as I type.
    It would seem that May will be hard pressed to get to record high temperatures this year.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    Paul, please stop saying and writing that this awful weather will be welcomed by farmers and gardeners. how can this possibly be the case? Most gardens are in a right old sodden state and most farmers fields are still waterlogged from the heavy rain over the last twelve months, a few fairly dry and cold weeks are not going to have dried them out and to state otherwise almost feels like some sort of propaganda, which I am sure you don't mean. To be honest I think that the last thing farmers will be wanting to see now is more rain and even if they do need water they can use hosepipes, after all the reservoirs and rivers are all full.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    Antonious back to zero. Negative territory not deserved.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

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    Comment number 6.

    There was a report by Roger Harrabin on R4 this morning, drawing attention to the fact that despite CO2 levels exceeding 400ppm, global temperatures hadn't increased since 1998.
    You can listen to it via the following page on the BBC website.
    The funny thing is, you don't seem to be able to see this on the actual Science & Environment News page.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22565278
    This report seemed to suggest that the "missing heat" is in the top 2.5 metres of the ocean, but I thought it was supposed to be in the "deep ocean".
    Sir John Houghton still seems to be claiming that temperatures are still rising at a rate of 0.1c/decade, but I don't know how he can make that claim, since the rate over the last 15 years is only 0.05c/decade, using HadCRUT4.
    Also, the report ends with the claim that "we've also had weather disrupted around the globe", when Harrabin himself admits that "the science ascribing the increase in extreme weather events to climate change is not conclusive". You bet it isn't, since there hasn't been any increase in such events other than normal variations in weather.
    Harrabin ends by suggesting that IPCC temperature predictions might be "recalibrated downwards just a tad", but no mention of the fact that the MO have already done that.
    Still, at least the BBC seem to be raising the possibility that the sensitivity to greenhouse gasses is lower than originally anticipated.
    At the end of the day, the "sceptics" are being proved to be correct. while the worst predictions of "mainstream" climate scientists were wrong. Unfortunately Scientists such as Sir John Houghton still seem to be "in denial" over this and are clutching at any straw they can find.
    As Churchill said about WWII, this is not the end, or even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 7.

    #6 QV

    Apparently Harrabin has commented on twitter that he is doing a follow up that 'will deal with the actual question, what to do about climate change.'
    Perhaps he didn't enjoy this one!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 8.

    .#7.ukpahonta

    "Apparently Harrabin has commented on twitter that he is doing a follow up that 'will deal with the actual question, what to do about climate change.'
    Perhaps he didn't enjoy this one!"

    Sorry, I hadn't seen your post #5 when I posted mine (you can't refresh the posts while you are preparing one).
    No doubt his follow up will start from the premise that "climate change" is actually happening, not just short-term bad weather.
    Apparently James Hansen also quoted a figure of 0.1c rise over the last decade on the Today Programme but I haven't heard that yet.
    The battle lines are being drawn for the next IPCC conference.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 9.

    #8QV

    I believe the Hansen addition was on one of the later airings, perhaps the audio page will be updated when it's realised that this valuable, although inaccurate, contribution has been missed.
    Maybe a bit of editorial turf war apparent, I would guess that not everyone is overjoyed with the good news.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 11.

    I don't know about the "missing heat" going into the SST.
    According to HadSST3, the decadal trend in SST is zero or negative over between 12 and 13 years.
    The trend over the last 10 years is -0.045c/decade.
    Between 1998 and 2007, trends over 10-20 years were all around 0.2c/decade, since when they have all fallen and most are below 0.1c/decade.
    The trend over 10 years was at it's peak of 0.33c/decade in 1942.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 12.

    #10.ukpahonta

    "Bishop hill has a link to the Hansen interview:"

    Thanks,

    Where does Hansen get his "facts" from????

    The frustrating thing is that most people probably believe it without question.

    I must listen to that interview.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 13.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 14.

    #13.quake

    "Hansen will be using a running mean like this"

    Yes, it just struck me that he and Houghton might be using moving averages, but I am not sure whether that justifies 0.1c/decade.
    Incidentally, why did you use a 132 month average (11 years), which is increasing, rather than a 120 month one, which is not?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 15.

    I just copied what Hansen used in the link:

    "The figure below shows 60-month (5-year) and 132-month (11-year to minimize the effect of the solar cycle) running means of the surface temperature deviation from the 1951-1980 mean"

  • rate this
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    Comment number 16.

    http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/LOTI+LandSea+Nino.pdf

    Not exactly consistent with the heat is going into the ocean over the last decade.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 17.

    #16.ukpahonta

    "Not exactly consistent with the heat is going into the ocean over the last decade."

    No, SST rising more slowly than land.

    A better argument might be that the SST is holding back the overall rise in temp.
    But then AFAIK, the IPCC projections are based on land and SST.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 18.

    #15.quake

    "I just copied what Hansen used in the link:"

    Sorry, I hadn't looked at the link.

    Of course, the simple 11 year MA is slow to respond to recent temperatures.

    The MO 21 point binomial filter shows a decline for about 9 years in HadCRUT4.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/diagnostics.html

  • rate this
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    Comment number 19.

    #17 QV

    'A better argument might be that the SST is holding back the overall rise in temp.'

    Do you mean that the SST has levelled off and now the land temps have levelled off

  • rate this
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    Comment number 20.

    #6.QV

    This report seemed to suggest that the "missing heat" is in the top 2.5 metres of the ocean, but I thought it was supposed to be in the "deep ocean".

    I heard this R4 program as well whilst driving to work, and I thought he'd said that the top 2.5m of ocean contained as much stored heat as the atmosphere...

    Is this the same thing, like ?

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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