Weather and climate round-up

Thursday 14 November 2013, 18:10

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

First taste of winter next week:

 

After a mild autumn so far, the UK is about to experience its first taste of winter next week.

 

Cold air is expected to flood southwards across the UK from Tuesday.

 

As it meets the relatively warm sea vigorous convection is expected, with the risk of heavy showers - even thunderstorms in some coastal areas.

 

For our region, showers that develop are likely to fall as snow down to quite low levels at times, with accumulations in places – especially over the North York moors and Wolds.

 

There will though be big variations with some inland areas seeing a lot of dry and sunny weather, but with frost at night.

 

All in all, this early taste of winter is pretty normal for late November and by no means exceptional.

 

 

NASA: Weakest sun for 200 years

 

There’s been more this week on the unusual behaviour of the sun that I’ve written about regularly on this blog.   

 

NASA solar scientist David Hathaway is quoted in the Wall Street Journal saying the sun is in its quietest state for 200 years.

 

Read the full article by clicking HERE 

 

 

Possible reason for ‘slowdown’ in global warming

 

Research out this week points the finger at reduced levels of CFC gases in the atmosphere following a ban on their use in the 1980s as a possible reason for the levelling off of global temperatures in the last 15 years or so.

 

CFCs, widely used in fridges and freezers until they were banned in 1987, are 10,000 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

 

 

You can read more on this HERE

 

 

  

Follow me on twitter @Hudsonweather

 

 

 

 

 

 

END

Comments

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    UAH has been released (updated from earlier) for October at +0.29.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    The latest CFS weather forecast model is suggesting that the cold spell will last through the rest of November though nothing to severe at the moment (famous last words!). It also shows two areas of intense high pressure, one over Greenland and the other over the mid Atlantic hence a northerly air flow. It will become very interesting if these two systems merge. Also despite the solar activity been the lowest for 200 years (according to NASA) current sunspot activity is probably at its highest this year, the latest HMI intensitygram shows up to 10 sunspot/clusters. Wonder if this will shift the jet stream back north!!!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    Reduced level of CFC gases, the other side of the equation is the level of UV which is needed to release the chlorine which depletes the ozone, back to the sun again.

    What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?
    http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/015602
    Written by the experts!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    4. ukpahonta

    "Entering the wash cycle:"

    Lets hope it is one of those new fangled systems that has a follow up warm air drying cycle.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 6.

    #5 greensand

    It's a modern eco friendly machine, cold wash!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 7.

    Looking at the GFS models for next week there is the suggestion almost of a 'polar low' developing in the northerly airstream from late Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday. This looks like a classic heavy snow setup - although not usually in November. I guess the models can still change. I also wonder whether the fact that it looks like High Pressure is beginning to get a hold in Russia and Greenland/Iceland this does have the portents of a cold winter - rather like the end of November 2010….. But, as always, the weather can and will surprise us.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 8.

    well, at least my kids are excited by the prospect of a bit of snow. No doubt they're hoping the schools will close for a few days!
    On another matter, did anyone see Question Time last night? Poor old Nigel Lawson was outnumbered on the panel but nevertheless, pulled out a few punches. Ed Davey looked comfortable (almost smug) until Dimbleby pushed him for reasons why Lawson should be trying to mislead. Toilet roll for Mr Davey please!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 9.

    sorry - in case it wasn't clear, they were discussing climate change.
    Reckon it was about 2 thirds through the programme.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

    #8 lateintheday

    I watched the whole sorry spectacle on Question Time last hight.

    I was disgusted at the sheer ignorance displayed by the panel members, with the exception of Nigel Lawson, who remained controlled and measured in his responses. How inept Ed Davey is as Secretary of State at the DECC. As for the shadow spokeswoman for Labour, she was an an utter embarrassment and full of vitriol towards Nigel. At least David Dimbleby did intervene to avoid Ed Davey creating more ridicule for himself. How could he say that China was being 'polluted' by carbon dioxide emissions? Very unscientific and plain wrong. I believe a large section of the QT studio audience recognised this as well. No mention of Australia, where the new PM Todd, has very recently ditched most of the green laws introduced by his predecessor.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 11.

    #10 Error. The new Australian PM is of course Tony Abbot.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 12.

    I also watched Question Time and agree with the above comments made by lateintheday and Paul Latham, Lord Lawsons comment on global warming was absolutely correct there has been no warming for 15 years.
    Goverment policy on emissions of GHG controlled by the EU is a shambles, closing down coal fired power stations before other forms of energy (mainly renewable) come on line is outrageous and is likely to become an issue in the future. How will the system cope if the forthcoming LIA becomes reality?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 13.

    12. WicstunBully

    "... Lord Lawsons comment on global warming was absolutely correct there has been no warming for 15 years."

    That is absolutely 'incorrect'. Every single global data set we have, including satellite, shows warming over the past15 years.

    The 'warmest' of these is Dr Roy Spencer's UAH satellite data set, which shows a total warming of 0.22C over the past 15 years; a rate of 0.14C per decade.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 14.

    10. Paul Latham

    "No mention of Australia, where the new PM .. has very recently ditched most of the green laws introduced by his predecessor."

    And which is just about to register by far the warmest year in its recorded history.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 15.

    I had to check newdwr, #12
    Even using hadcrut4 I had to wait until 2000+ before the trend line starts to show a downward trend.
    I think time might be on the side of those claiming the hiatus
    Perhaps we will have to wait until 2015 before you will accept the pause has lasted 15 years.
    The key point however is that the models are not predicting the pause

  • rate this
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    Comment number 16.

    BBC Question Time was an opportunity for a proper debate with two of the most influential people involved in the climate change arena on the panel. Unfortunately, although Lord Lawson presented facts, all we got from Ed Davey was emotive bluster and baseless accusations. Also Dimbleby allowed too much airtime to the awful Labour woman to rant about 95%.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 17.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/15/a-big-picture-look-at-earths-temperature-santer-17-update/#more-96736

    In terms of exactly how long the “Pause” has lasted, it depends on the data set and what it is being measured, e.g. in Werner Brozek’s recent article Statistical Significances – How Long Is “The Pause”? he showed that;


    1. For GISS, the slope is flat since September 1, 2001 or 12 years, 1 month. (goes to September 30, 2013)
    2. For Hadcrut3, the slope is flat since May 1997 or 16 years, 5 months. (goes to September)
    3. For a combination of GISS, Hadcrut3, UAH and RSS, the slope is flat since December 2000 or 12 years, 10 months. (goes to September)
    4. For Hadcrut4, the slope is flat since December 2000 or 12 years, 10 months. (goes to September)
    5. For Hadsst3, the slope is flat since November 2000 or 12 years, 11 months. (goes to September)
    6. For UAH, the slope is flat since January 2005 or 8 years, 9 months. (goes to September using version 5.5)
    7. For RSS, the slope is flat since November 1996 or 17 years (goes to October)

  • rate this
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    Comment number 18.

    I am just horrified by the prospect of the continuance of Ed Davey as Energy Secretary. He is an ideologically-driven, irrational, emotive, ignorant, arrogant, intellectually challenged environmental activist whose appointment as a junior minister would be bad enough, but the elevation of this oaf to Secretary of State for Energy at such a critical period in terms of the policies which his Department oversees is nothing short of political insanity mediating gross economic, environmental and social incompetence on the part of this lamentable government.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 19.

    #18 JaimeJ

    You wouldn't vote for him then..... hehehe!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 20.

    I hope that everyone who has been following the debate about sunspot activity will enjoy reading this post from Professor Mike Lockwood.

    http://carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/11/solar-activity-and-the-so-called-%E2%80%9Clittle-ice-age%E2%80%9D?utm_source=Weekly+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=77f6359423-Carbon_Brief_Weekly_18_7_137_18_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3ff5ea836a-77f6359423-303417661

    To quote:
    "Unfortunately, I now find myself in the position of being cited as predicting that the current rapid decline in solar activity will plunge the world into a "Little Ice Age".

    This is very disappointing as it is not at all supported by the science."

    And further on:
    "So what do we think the effect of a return to Maunder minimum conditions on global mean temperatures would be? The answer is very little."

    Another example of irresponsible and biased reporting by the BBC, I'm afraid.

 

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Rest of November outlook - and what about winter?

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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