Summer is here, but how long will it last?

Monday 3 June 2013, 16:15

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

What a nice change to be able to report a decent fine spell of weather as we begin summer (climatologically June, July and August), the first such warm settled spell in our area since the second half of May last year.

 

High pressure looks set to dominate into early next week, with light winds and spells of sunshine, although it won’t always be sunny; a weak cold front on Wednesday for example will make for cooler, cloudier conditions, especially in eastern areas.

 

The change to warmer, settled weather comes after a very cold spring.

 

According to the Met Office, spring ended up the coldest across the UK since 1962 – making it the 5th coldest since this modern data set began in 1910.

 

But as ever, the more interesting and meaningful comparison comes from the Central England Temperature (CET) series.

 

This is the world’s longest temperature data set, which stretches back to the mid-17th century.

 

According to Philip Eden, writing in the Sunday Telegraph, and who is a leading expert in this series, temperature levels this spring were around the same as those in the springs of 1962, 1951 and 1941.

 

But more interestingly, he says, according to the figures there has not been a significantly colder spring in the CET area since 1891.

 

But back to the welcome sunshine. With current indications suggesting less settled conditions developing towards the middle of the month, it may again be useful advice to enjoy it while it lasts.

 

 

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Comments

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  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 1.

    Seems to be more of a pattern with 2002 to me when Austria and other European cities were flooded as now http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22746889

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 2.

    Paul from your blog of 23 May

    "Don’t forget this weekend’s weather show on BBC local radio across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, featuring amongst other things the long hot summer of 1976, and the severe winter of 1963.

    And the following weekend, I cover the issue of climate change."

    You seem to have overlooked covering climate change. But no worries I will cover it for you.

    Climate changes. Always has. Always will.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 3.

    2. NTropywins

    Had the same thought until I realised it was the radio programme our host was talking about:-

    "And the following weekend, I cover the issue of climate change."

    Listen to it here, promises to be interesting:-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0198qbw

    Not had chance to listen to it all, had to stop at the "carbon footprint" calculator. Do intend to get back to it later. However the first bit has a wonderful example of an expert waxing lyrical until posed a simple question by our host. Which he constructively avoided answering. As long as "experts" continue to behave this way logical thinking people will have no option other than remain sceptical.

    The question he avoided was why has the planet stopped warming? Whilst it might be easier to pose than to answer, it at least requires an attempt at an answer.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 4.

    Thanks GS. Not had chance to follow your link. yet

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 5.

    couldn't get past 4 minutes. excruciating. sorry

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 6.

    The Spring CET is only the same as 1962, 1951 and 1941 based on the figures to a single decimal place from the unranked seasonal data file.

    If you use the ranked data file, which goes to 2 decimal places, this spring was ranked joint 29th coldest, along with 1741 and 1883, and was the coldest spring since 1892.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

    Some might say that the 2nd decimal place isn't accurate, but that's what the MO ranked file shows.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 7.

    HadCRUT4 for April, global up from 0.411c to 0.425c.

    UAH for May down from 0.103c to 0.074c.

    Maybe the MO think that nobody will pay attention to their figures if they publish them a month late!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 8.

    I make the UAH figure down from 0.387c to 0.357c after adjustment to 1961-90.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 9.

    7. QuaesoVeritas

    "HadCRUT4 for April, global up from 0.411c to 0.425c."

    Thanks QV, interesting, Land down, Ocean up, will have to take a look at hemispherical splits.

    UAH May lower than thought

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 10.

    QV, did you notice the following on the CRUTEM4 page?

    "Update: a problem in routine updates of the CRUTEM4 resulted in a large amount missing data for January 2013 in CRUTEM.4.2.0.0. We recommend that users requiring data for January 2013 download an updated copy of the CRUTEM.4.2.0.0 data from the downloads page."

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem4/

    Trying to figure out how that fits with the changes that took place.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 11.

    I see the HadCRUT4 figure is out for April
    I make the moving annual mean to be 0.47

    Once again! Here are our 2013 forecasts for HadCRUT4 submitted so far
    Not much interest this year. Only 8 entries to date
    The figures in brackets show the degree of error for 2012 and 2011 entries
    The Met.Office forecast quoted is the average of HadCRUT4, GISS and NCDC adjusted to 1961-2010. The science involved in my own entry is Met.Office forecast minus 0.9

    “Warmists”

    +0.57 * Met Office (+0.08,+0.09)
    +0.5 Newdwr54 (+0.05:N/A)
    +0.51 John Cogger (+0.03:N/A)

    “Realists”

    Mr Bluesky (+0.02:N/A)
    Lazarus (+0.02:N/A)
    +0.49 quake (+0.01:+0.36)
    Paul Briscoe (0:2012 winning entry 0.4)
    Gagetfriend (0:+0.30) (2012 winning entry 0.4)
    +0.48 NeilHamp (0:-0.08)(2012 winning entry 0.4)

    “Coolists”

    +0.41 QuaesoVeritas (-0.06:+0.31)
    +0.38 ukpahonta (-0.12:0) (2011 winning entry 0.35)
    +0.35 Lateintheday’s Holly Bush (-0.03,No entry)
    Millinia (-0.11:+0.24)
    LabMunkey (-0.11:+0.25)

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 12.

    #11.NeilHamp

    Thanks for the update.

    "Only 8 entries to date"
    I think we can consider the entries closed now!

    "I make the moving annual mean to be 0.47"

    I make the rolling average for 2013 to be 0.44c using HadCRUT4 and the HadCRUT4/NCDC/GISS average to be 0.45c.

    At the lower end of the MO forecast range, just inside the 95% probability range.

    "The science involved in my own entry is Met.Office forecast minus 0.9"

    I think you mean minus 0.09!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 13.

    I notice that the HadCRUT3/CRUTEM3 data files haven't been updated for April.
    I wonder if they have finally dropped HC3 or if this is just an oversight.
    The HadSST2 files for April are updated.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 14.

    greensand,

    I received a reply from the MO regarding the problem with January 2013 HadCRUT4 data:

    "During the initial update to version 4.2.0.0 of CRUTEM4 there was a problem in writing the station data for January 2013 into the CRUTEM4 station files. The monthly summaries of meteorological station data received from meteorological services around the world in 'CLIMAT' messages were received as normal, but an error in updating the station files from our database resulted in a large amount data being erroneously marked as missing for January 2013.

    "As soon as we became aware of this issue we corrected the problem and updated the files on the Met Office website. The complete monthly data for January 2013 is now available from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem4."

    "As soon as we became aware"
    No indication of whether they spotted this themselves or not!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 15.

    12. QuaesoVeritas

    "I make the rolling average for 2013 to be 0.44c using HadCRUT4 and the HadCRUT4/NCDC/GISS average to be 0.45c."

    That's what I get too.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 16.

    Cloudy over Lincolnshire today with temperatures down to near single figures. the problems with all met forecasts is accuracy over longer than 2-3 days. your 5day forecast is ok to start but rubbish by weekend.
    Never mind Paul you might have to change everything given the post today on WUWT by Dr Vincent Gray, an IPCC expert reviewer, who demonstrates the folly of thinking that CO2 has anything to do with driving climate. His post shows, using scientific data, that there is no correlation between CO2 and surface temperature for the last 1Ba.
    Goodbye GHE then!!!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 17.

    #15.newdwr54

    "I make the rolling average for 2013 to be 0.44c using HadCRUT4 and the HadCRUT4/NCDC/GISS average to be 0.45c."

    "That's what I get too."

    Phew!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 18.

    14. QuaesoVeritas

    "As soon as we became aware"
    "No indication of whether they spotted this themselves or not!"

    Only light I can shed on it is the comment I received from Richard Betts:-

    "Thanks for pointing this out. I spoke to John Kennedy earlier about it, and he and Colin Morice are looking into it."

    That leads me to understand that they were not aware prior to our combined communications.

    I am also puzzled by the explanation; the original issue was with how the CRUTEM4 numbers affected the HadCRUT4 calculations. Not with the CRUTEM4 numbers themselves.

    HadCRUT4.1.0.0 Jan 13 was +0.432C made up from CRUTEM4 at +0.891C and HadSST3 at +0.292C.

    HadCRUT4.2.0.0 Jan 13 was +0.378C made up from CRUTEM4 at +1.182C and HadSST3 at +0.292C.

    So as HadSST3 remained the same the puzzle was how an increase of +0.291C in CRUTEM4 could result in a decrease of -0.054C in HadCRUT4?

    There may well have been a problem with CRUTEM4 data but I am at a loss to see how that could be responsible for the above?

    The "new" "corrected" 4.2.0.0 set of numbers for Jan 13 referred to in the MO notation are now:-

    HadCRUT4.2.0.0 Jan 2013 is +0.450C made up from CRUTEM4 at +0.935C and HadSST3 at +0.292C.

    Still puzzled

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 19.

    #18.greensand

    "So as HadSST3 remained the same the puzzle was how an increase of +0.291C in CRUTEM4 could result in a decrease of -0.054C in HadCRUT4?"

    Yes, I had forgotten about that.

    It seems that an increase in CRUTEM4 caused a decrease in HadCRUT4 and vice versa.
    Very odd.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 20.

    "the post today on WUWT by Dr Vincent Gray, an IPCC expert reviewer, who demonstrates the folly of thinking that CO2 has anything to do with driving climate. His post shows, using scientific data, that there is no correlation between CO2 and surface temperature for the last 1Ba. "

    Did he take into account the fainter Sun 1 bya?

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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