Outlook for the rest of July

Thursday 11 July 2013, 17:40

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

Friday will see the heat returning to Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

 

On Tuesday Linton-on-Ouse recorded 28.7C (84F) making it the hottest day in our region of the year so far, and there’s a chance that temperatures on Friday, perhaps again somewhere in the Vale of York, will be slightly higher still.

 

The fundamental difference with atmospheric weather patterns at the moment is that the jet stream is well to the north of the UK, completely the opposite to last year when the jet stream at times was so far south that it ran through parts of France.

 

With Friday’s heat there’s an outside chance of a thunderstorm, but the risk is higher on Saturday as a weak cold front edges southwards across the area, introducing some instability.

 

That said most places on Saturday will stay dry and very warm.

 

Sunday looks a little fresher but fine and still warm with sunny spells.

 

As regards the rest of the July, current indications are that the jet stream is likely to remain to the north of us for much of the month.

 

This means that the general picture looks set to be one of fine weather.

 

Weak weather fronts may try and move in from the Atlantic, but with pressure high, they will lose much of their activity as they push south-eastwards.

 

A weak weather front may produce a little patchy light rain around the middle of next week for example, but other than that another predominantly dry week is expected

 

Further ahead it’s impossible to give day to day detail, but overall I now expect July as a whole to be a very dry, warm and sunny month, dominated by high pressure.

 

Follow me on twitter @Hudsonweather

Comments

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    At lat some good news!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    That's nice ;)

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    Glad to see a good summer again

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    Great news Paul, but it wont be long before they mension reservoir running low.
    But overhaul it makes a nice change.
    Enjoy.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    how I love to be dominated.........

    by high pressure

    keep the good news coming Paul. it will be Christmas before you know it

  • rate this
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    Comment number 6.

    Thanks for the good news Mr Hudson. I do hope it plays out.

    Meanwhile our glorious MO is in the press again:-

    "Forecast failure: how the Met Office lost touch with reality"

    "Ideology has corrupted a valuable British institution"

    Rupert Darwall 13 July 2013

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8959941/whats-wrong-with-the-met-office/

  • rate this
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    Comment number 7.

    #6 I was thinking of posting this greensand but I was reluctant to put the boot in so early!

    "With this record, if the Met Office were a secondary school, it would be subject to special measures and intensive monitoring." Ooops!

    Never mind, there's still the school holidays to prove the MO's earlier press release re. cooler, wetter summers. It ALWAYS turns horrible as soon as the kids break up! To be honest, I predicted a cold wet summer too, but then again I don't have a mainframe supercomputer and employ an army of climate professionals.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 8.

    7. JaimeJ

    With their present day MO the MO is on a hiding to nothing. Trying to forecast the UK weather for more than a few days with our current understanding is very much playing the odds game. I have said it many times if I really want to know about the UK weather for the next few days I listen to the "Shipping Forecast" there is a reason why it is updated 4 times a day!

    The questioning of the MO's direction arises from their apparent insistence to have devised a single modelling system with sufficient "skill" to forecast both day to day and seasonal weather forecasts along with century long climate forecasts. Therefore if the day to day, though to be fair, more likely the seasonal forecast go awry how can "skill" in longer terms be be claimed?

    It is IMVHO long past the time when the "uncertainties" nomenclature should be changed to "certainties" - as in these are the things we are "certain" we do not know enough about. There will be other breeds of uncertainties and interrelations that are still to become evident and become further "uncertainties".

    What the MO must also take into consideration is that its present "skill" claims places it in a very politicised environment, an environment that has the ability to change quicker than the weather!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 9.

    Greensand

    The highly variable UK weather seems to outwit the Met Office. Just as a trend seems to become recognised and established, and they forecast "probably more of the same" ie another wetter than average summer - only comes the (so far) very dry summer of 2013 (away from Scotland and Northern Ireland where rainfall has been closer to average). Likewise 2007 and 2008 were not mere blips from the dry, warm summers between 1994 and 2006, but were the start of a 6 year run of wet and/or rather cool summers including 2009.

    Meanwhile, after a recent cessation of such behaviour, the Daily Excess is back to rampant inaccurate front-page weather sensationalism - "95 F and a 'deadly heatwave'" over the next three days or so. I think NOT. NB I have not yet been able to read the article because I'm STILL waiting for it to appear online, but the front page can be viewed at the Sky News website.
    http://www.express.co.uk
    (An earlier effort: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/413626/Heatwave-to-continue-for-at-least-another-WEEK-with-no-end-in-sight-for-glorious-weather)

    That's funny the Met Office seem rather less alarmed than the ridiculous Mr Rao (and Nick Miller on the BBC at 6.30 pm merely suggested that 30.0 Celsius will be - officially - reached or exceeded somewhere on Saturday, beating Northern Ireland's recent 29.9 C):
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

    9. ashleyhr

    I gave up on MSM weather long ago, they all need to "make an impact, gain attention". It seems to have percolated through to the MO, I can imagine that the pinnacle for many is to be "on camera" an environment that cannot promote true inquisitive science?

    There are two people in the MSM that I pay attention to, one is Philip Eden and the other is our host. They are both not only very, very good meteorologists but they also have open and inquisitive minds that allow them to progress with developments. They are not wedded to any overarching concept which many (of both sides of the divide) sadly appear to be.

    The more the MO strives to be "the best at social media" and the more it aligns itself with the MSM, "The Daily Excess" and ilk, the more credibility it loses.

    Really sad for me, my "Old Man" worked hard teaching me how to "read" the weather by following the shipping forecast clockwise around the UK.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 11.

    I've never seen any evidence of the Met Office seeking to 'align' itself with rags like the Daily Express - a 'news'paper which normally quotes self-appointed private weather forecasters who habitually offer worst or best case scenarios, rather than the most likely and realistic outcome.

    The latest Rao offering is still not available online - perhaps they don't want any sarcastic online comments.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 12.

    And some better quality journalism (though it's mostly photos rather than information):
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2360273/Met-Office-alert-scorching-weekend-wildfires-sparked-temperatures-climb-30C.html
    Looks like the 29.9 C in Northern Ireland may be beaten on Friday and/or Saturday somewhere in England - a chance somewhere will get to 31.0 C.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 13.

    11. ashleyhr

    "I've never seen any evidence of the Met Office seeking to 'align' itself with rags like the Daily Express"

    No? Not seen the MO "release" "records" days before the end of the month or year? Why do it if not to ensure they feed the MSM? Not seen "My Climate & Me"? Not seen the constant feed to "social media" twitter, facebook, blog, all of which can only be long on PR and short on science.

    Whilst it is subjective and therefore my own personal view, it seems that the MO sees a need to compete with the MSM and the resultant constant need to be in the news produces nothing to enhance the MO's or any scientific establishment's creditability.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 14.

    @6 Greensand

    The Met office replies -

    http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/07/11/the-spectator-how-accurate-is-the-met-office/

    Maybe Darwall could of checked a few of his claims before publishing?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 15.

    14. john_cogger

    "The Met office replies -"

    Good, puts the MO in the press again.

    I note the MO states:-

    "On global temperatures, you can look at our HadCRUT4 pages – which show 2010 and 2005 are respectively the first and second warmest years on record, with all the supporting data available online."

    But some remember the MO/CRU forecast that according to HadCRUT3 half the years from 2009 to 2014 would be warmer than1998. Note it was made against HadCRUT3, not HadCRUT4 and to this date HadCRUT3 has not exceeded 1998 and "all the supporting data available online."

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/

    And it is the changing goal posts that permit such omissions, which IMVHO do nothing for the MO's credibility and do a lot to promote this type of opinion venting.

    I have no doubt that there are also omissions and inaccuracies in the Speccy opinion piece. But that is all it is an opinion and should be read as such, whereas the MO does not have such leeway, the HadCRUT3 numbers and prediction are recorded facts, not opinion.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 16.

    Judging from the latest Jetstream forecast on Netweather, this fine weather will last until about July 21st.

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=

    Although it still isn't clear to me whether it is the jetstream which is determining the postiton of the high pressure, or the other way around.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 17.

    greensand,

    Going back to the previous topic, thanks for the post on water vapour.
    It seems that my speculation regarding a reduction in water vapour possibly accounting for the "hiatus" is not so misguided.
    Funny though, I thought that Lazarus said that w.v. had increased.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 18.

    School summer hols begin 19th - 24th July, so if the current warm, dry settled period ends around then, it will be true to form!

    The MO's reply to the Spectator piece seems just a little too snappy IMO and does little to really address the concerns raised. It is telling that the MO refers only to the recent blatantly political 'study' on decadal temps released by the WMO and the Hadcrut 4 data set which scandalously attempts to disprove the slight cooling trend shown by Hadcrut 3 since 1998, right up until the present. My guess is that the MO will seek to quietly sweep Hadcrut 3 under the carpet because its data is 'inconvenient'. Even Hadcrut 4 is starting to come up short, especially in relation to AR5 IPCC predictions of warming. In order to have faith in the predictions of our national weather service, we need to believe that they are truly independent of any political interference and totally focussed on scientific facts and methodology. Sadly, I believe this is still far from the case.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 19.

    #14.john_cogger

    "Maybe Darwall could of checked a few of his claims before publishing?"

    The MO seems to have responded to the article, which was critical about their 3 month and longer range climate forecasts, largely with reference to it's claimed accuracy over short-term forecast accuracy.

    I have looked into the MO measurement of short-term accuracy and in my opinion, there methodology is poor.

    For example you will find lots of measurements on temperature but not much on rain and sunshine and nothing on wind speeds.

    Even their claim that temperature forecasts are 87.7% accurate for MAXIMUM temperature for the first day of the 5 day forecasts are based on a margin of 2 degrees, which I think is excessive. By using only maximum temperature, they can still get 100% accuracy even if the 3 hourly forecasts are wrong.

    What matters most to most people is the accuracy of the 5 day forecasts for their own location.
    If the forecast says it is going to rain at Newcastle at 12:00 and it rains at 15:00, that is a fail.
    If it actually rains at Durham at 12:00, that is also a fail. If they had forecasted it would rain "somewhere" in the NE between 12:00 and 15:00, that would not be a fail.

    I recently spent a month monitoring the accuracy of the first day of the 5 day day forecast for April, at Albemarle, v actual MO observations, using the "general weather" symbol on their forcasts and found that the overall accuracy of those symbols was only 34%, with a maximum of 75% and a minimum of 0%.
    I also found that 3 hourly temperature forecast were only 77% accuarate (+/- 1c) and wind speed only 26% accurate (+/- 10%), which may be why they don't monitor wind speeds.

    In reality, as long as the MO are monitoring the accuracy of the forecasts themselves, using their own definition of accuracy, we should take their figures with a "pinch of salt".

    Forecast accuracy needs to be independantly verified. Having said that, I suspect it may the way the 5 day forecasts are displayed on the website which may be a large part of the problem.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 20.

    It looks like we are in for a scorcher like in 1976. Weather patterns seem to be getting back to normal and winters are getting colder again. Funny how the sun controls the world temperature and not man. Rather than being concerned about C02, we need to be concerned with the real pollution, that does far more damage than this myth.

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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