January 2nd warmest globally on record

Tuesday 5 February 2013, 21:57

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

Hot of the press tonight...

Global temperatures in January rose to 0.51C above the 30 year running mean according to UAH satellite data, up sharply from an anomaly of 0.21C in December.

This makes it the second warmest January on satellite record, behind January 2010.

It equates to a global temperature of approximately 0.763C above the more standard 1961-1990 measure.

The rise comes as quite a surprise, especially considering El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators in the tropical Pacific remain at neutral levels.

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    Comment number 1.

    This looks decidedly odd.
    Roy Spencer says it might be the result of a fall in SST but that fell in November and December and UAH fell in both months.
    I think we will have to await confirmation of this via RSS and other non-satellite anomalies before coming to any conclusions.
    Of course, it's probably all just "noise" and we shouldn't have taken the December figure seriously.

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    Comment number 2.

    So is this heat going into the oceans or escaping from it or is it heat moving from somewhere else in the atmosphere?

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    Comment number 3.

    RSS also reporting an increase, 0.442 for Jan

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    Comment number 4.

    Here are the 2013 forecasts for HadCRUT4 submitted so far (7 entries to date)
    Met Office WMO forecast is +0.57
    I hope the figures in brackets are not too confusing.
    It shows the degree of error for your 2012 and 2011 entries

    “Warmists”

    +0.57 Met Office (+0.08,+0.09)
    +0.5 Newdwr54 (+0.05:N/A)
    +0.51 John Cogger (+0.03:N/A)

    “Neutralists”

    Mr Bluesky (+0.02:N/A)
    Lazarus (+0.02:N/A)
    quake (+0.01:+0.36)
    Paul Briscoe (0:2012 winning entry 0.4)
    Gagetfriend (0:+0.30) (2012 winning entry 0.4)
    +0.48 NeilHamp (0:-0.08)(2012 winning entry 0.4)

    “Coolists”

    +0.41 QuaesoVeritas (-0.06:+0.31)
    +0.38 ukpahonta (-0.12:0) (2011 winning entry 0.35)
    +0.35 Lateintheday’s Holly Bush (-0.03,No entry)
    millinia (-0.11:+0.24)
    LabMunkey (-0.11:+0.25)

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    Comment number 5.

    Well the RSS figure should at least put Spencer's mind to rest.

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    Comment number 6.

    I am going to guess/forecast 2013 HadCRUT4 to be +0.49

    Also it looks like a lot of the 2011 predictions in the list are too high and have not been converted to degree of error. Either that or we are getting better at forecasting over time!

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    Comment number 7.

    A similar large jump happened in Jan 2007 in RSS and UAH, but next month it came right back down again.

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    Comment number 8.

    4th comment in on WUWT... It's not cold in my backgarden, so it's wrong.

    They will be claiming the thermometers are better next...

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    Comment number 9.

    Yes, RSS does seem to confirm the UAH figure, and suggest a HadCRUT3 of around 0.56c., HadCRUT4 of about 0.6c. I think we have to assume that the other series will show a similar increase.
    As quake says, there was a similar increase in Jan 2007, with a HC3 of 0.61c and a HC4 of 0.818c,
    This months figures would not have been so surprising without the big fall in December and the fact that, as far as I am concerned that is, there was no hint of much warmer global temperatures in January.
    This leads me to conclude that it was December which was the "anomaly", but since it was reflected in all of the series, I don't see how it could simply be put down to "noise".

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

    7. quake, 9. QuaesoVeritas:

    The thing about the 2006/2007 jump was that it came on the back of five months of officially declared El Nino conditions. Likewise the jump in January 2010.

    It is very unusual to see a jump like this in either direction during ENSO neutral conditions.

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    Comment number 11.

    #4.NeilHamp
    "Here are the 2013 forecasts for HadCRUT4 submitted so far (7 entries to date)
    Met Office WMO forecast is +0.57"

    Oh Dear, it looks like January will be a good start for the MO!
    Can I change my be please? ;-)

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    Comment number 12.

    Sod's law again. Clearly this is the Earth's response to the MET revising their five year forecast down.

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    Comment number 13.

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    Comment number 14.

    0.49 added to my list quake
    Last year I think I kept the list open until February HadCRUT was published QV
    All changes are welcome until the list closes

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    Comment number 15.

    One thing the UAH/RSS results throws open to debate is the vexed question of the staellite AQUA channel 5.

    I was about to throw ch.5 out, I must admit, despite some effort working on it. I nearly choked when I saw the satellite data for January. I had thought ch.5 was a busted flush.

    But now it seems that, although it's reading a little high, it's still a reasonable 'canary in a cage' indicator for the general direction of monthly global surface temps.

    I know Spencer took ch.5 data down last year for a spell, but I assumed this was for re-calibration of the data signal it was sending.

    I would guess that ch.5 less 20-25% might currently give a reasonable indicator for relative monthly surface temps in the immediate future.

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    Comment number 16.

    I have awarded notional positive ratings to all those who have stated they will not be using the rating system. If everyone avoids the rating system greensand will be able to tell grandchildren 1 and 2 that he was the only poster ever to get a positive score on Paul Hudson's blog.

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    Comment number 17.

    #15.newdwr54
    "I know Spencer took ch.5 data down last year for a spell, but I assumed this was for re-calibration of the data signal it was sending."

    Are you saying that R.S. is using aqua ch5 again?
    I must have missed that.
    Like you, I had given upon ch5, so I haven't done the sums, (and I don't know if I can be bothered to), but I suspect that it might have been a good indicator of UAH this month, but not last month I think.
    I was never really convinced that it was ch5 which was the problem, but UAH itself, which always seemed to be too high.

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    Comment number 18.

    Paul Homewood has produced an interesting post on his blog about the 2007 version of the MO decadal forecast:
    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/met-office-decadal-forecast2007-version/
    It would be ironic if after all of the fuss, the 2013 figure turned out to be too low!
    Although if I were the MO, I would try to err on the low side, in the hope that the actual was higher, since that "looks better" than always being too high.

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    Comment number 19.

    17. QuaesoVeritas

    For what it's worth, Ch.5 is staying ahead of the field so far in February, though falling.

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    Comment number 20.

    WUWT is having one of it's inspired moments... commentators suggesting that the UAH data has been 'got at' or hacked...

    Now what was that Lewandowsky paper about? :-)

 

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