Early May weather looking promising

Wednesday 1 May 2013, 17:13

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

The May day bank holiday weekend has produced some very poor weather over the years; it has arguably the worst track record for weather of any bank holiday.

 

The very first May day bank Holiday was in 1978.

 

It turned out to be cold and windy, and in southern Britain, wet, all courtesy of an easterly block.

 

Here in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire it was cold and grey with extensive low cloud.

 

Remarkably the country had to wait until 1989 for a fine and warm Bank holiday Monday

 

There have been a few fine and warm weekends since then, but these, unfortunately, have been the exception to the rule.

 

This year, however, things look more positive, with a good deal of fine weather expected across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

 

The details are proving a little elusive at this stage, courtesy of weak weather fronts which may being more cloud at times and the risk of just a little patchy rain.

 

But amounts of rain will be small, and in-between these weather fronts long dry and bright spells of weather are expected with some pleasant spring sunshine.

 

With a west or south-westerly wind, temperatures won’t be far from normal, with the best conditions always likely towards the coast.

 

Early May is in fact looking promising, with high pressure set to dominate through much of next week, and possibly beyond.

 

 April, incidentally, turned out to be very dry across England and Wales, with around half the normal rainfall. Sunshine amounts were close to normal, with temperatures colder than average.

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Comments

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  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 1.

    I have found over the years it's the Sun coming up in the East orbiting over Look North area in a different position to what it is in the Winter months just an observation.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 2.

    Ah you must be purchasing Piers Corbyns monthly forcasts :D

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 3.

    From the previous topic:
    #68.ukpahonta
    Thanks,
    I assume that's from the pdf file, which I haven't read.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 4.

    How you can tell this far from the weekend I have no idea Paul. Your early week 5day forecasts change every week after three days. Stick to three days max, your models just about cope with that.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 5.

    Excellent news - hope the early May forecast comes good.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 6.

    Roy Spencer has managed to publish the UAH figures for April before the MO have published their March figures, not something which happens very often.

    Global = 0.103, compared with 0.183c for March.
    NH = 0.119c, compared with 0.329c for March
    SH = 0.087c, compared with 0.038c for March

    So the global and NH figures seem to reflect the "perception" of low NH figures in the USA and the UK.

    Based on my latest annual conversion factors, I estimate that these figures are equivalent to a HC4 global anomaly of 0.387c, and NH/SH anomalies of 0.477c and 0.305c, respectively, which are not too far away from the HC4 February figures, suggesting that thefall in HC4 may not be as extreme as in UAH, unless of course, there was a large rise in March.
    RSS anomalies for April are not yet published.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 7.

    I hope all of May will be fine and warm as this is my Birthday month.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 8.

    Woody, aka Luis ArmPecker, sends warm and sunny birthday greetings to Pablo-Q

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 9.

    @6 QuaesoVeritas

    I see UAH is back in favour again with the good commentators at WUWT. Wonder why? :-)

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 10.

    #9.john_cogger

    "I see UAH is back in favour again with the good commentators at WUWT. Wonder why? :-)"

    I get the impression that some commentors don't appreciate that the anomalies are v 1981-2010.
    Still no HC4 for March.
    I think that the MO staff must have started their BH weekend early!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 11.

    9 & 10,

    April 2013 was joint 11th warmest in UAH record and Jan-April 2013 is the fifth warmest 'year-to-date' in UAH.

    Hardly cause for jubilation among the Wattsonians?.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 12.

    #11.newdwr54
    "April 2013 was joint 11th warmest in UAH record and Jan-April 2013 is the fifth warmest 'year-to-date' in UAH. "

    But remember that the MO forecasted an anomaly of 0.57c v 1961-90 this year, which would make it the warmest on record according to the WMO average.
    That's equivalent to a UAH mean of about 0.28c, compared with the actual 0.24c so far.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 13.

    12: QV

    Unless HadCRUT4 March is radically different from NOAA (and it's not usually) then Jan-Mar will be +0.47C as far as the Met's figures go. Looks like April may lower that though.

    I was surprised to see that April 2013 for the UK tied April 2012. It was even fractionally warmer here in N Ireland than last April. If anything it felt colder; possibly wind chill?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 14.

    @11 newdwr54

    One month in a 'downwards' direction seems to be enough! A month or 2 of high temps at the start of the year was enough for a few to question UAH and even Dr Roy himself.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 15.

    I wonder why the BBC was making such a fuss about yesterday possibly being the warmest day of the year so far?
    There was even mention of it being a "record", (for the year so far?).
    According to CET, the highest max. temp. so far this year was 17.5c on April 23rd, but since temperatures normally rise at this time of year, in theory, new "high" temperatures could be recorded every day.
    Were the BBC implying that it was going to be unusually warm?
    The provisional daily maximum CET for May 6th is 20.1c but this is by no means unusual for May 6th., with a figure of 21.3c being recorded in 1886, 21.7c in 1889 and 21.0c in 1895.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 16.

    The following maybe of interest - Our Host on the "maverick" Piers Corbyn and Weather Action, some might be surprised by his comments :-

    Paul Hudson's Weather Show - 4/5/2013 - approx 22:30 in

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p017wh2w

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 17.

    #16.greensand
    "The following maybe of interest - Our Host on the "maverick" Piers Corbyn and Weather Action, some might be surprised by his comments :-"

    I am a bit surprised by the comment that Corbyn says that "the magnetic particles are modulated by the Moon - by the magnetic field of the Moon, then goes on to discuss the effect of the Moon's GRAVITY on the tides. I was under the assumption that the Moon didn't have much of a magnetic field. Is there confusion here between the magnetic field and it's gravitational field?
    I don't know enough about Corbyn's theories to know if he is referring to the Moon's magnetic field or it's gravitational field.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 18.

    17. QuaesoVeritas

    "I don't know enough about Corbyn's theories.."

    Same here QV, I have always viewed Corbyn as a "showman". For Paul Hudson to give credence to Corbyn's work was a surprise to me. As Paul Hudson has demonstrated over the years that he has an open mind to all "climate theories" I might have to pay a little more attention.

    I think Paul said something along the lines that Corbyn had demonstrated to him that "the position of the jet stream is affected by solar magnetic particles/forces". I have not gone into any details such as the effect the moon has etc, but PH's comments, IMVHO give Corbyn more credibility than I previously thought existed. Maybe our host will post on it?

 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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