Autumn deluge on the way

Thursday 5 September 2013, 17:17

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

The fine spell of late summer weather which has seen temperatures today rise to a new September record of 29.4C at Wattisham in Suffolk (beating their previous record set in 1973) will come to an abrupt end in the next 24 hours, and could lead to localised flooding in places.

 

It’s a text book break down of the weather, as cool air from the north meets very warm air from the near continent, resulting in a rapid destabilisation of the atmosphere.

 

The contrast in temperatures across the UK is dramatic, with just 12C (54F) recorded at Aboyne in Aberdeenshire this afternoon, compared with 30C (86F) in Kent.

 

And under the right atmospheric conditions a temperature contrast like this can lead to copious amounts of rain, with parts of Northern England in the highest risk area, together with North Wales.

 

With much of the ground still firm following the dry summer, rapid run-off could lead to localised flooding.

 

Current estimates suggest that 25mm (1 inch) of rain is likely across a wide area, but some spots may see 50mm (2 inches) – or more – during Friday and into Saturday morning.

 

With temperatures in our region struggling to get above 15C (59F) on Friday with a brisk northerly wind, it really will feel like autumn has arrived.

 

END

 

Don't forget my weekend weather show on BBC local radio which can also be heard on the BBC iplayer by clicking HERE (updated every sunday afternoon)

 

Comments

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  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 1.

    Steady on lad. 2 posts in 4 days! tha'll gi' theesen a nose bleed

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 2.

    #1.NTropywins

    LOL! Nowt for a month, nare wet a ferret, then a deluge!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 3.

    "to a new September record of 29.4C at Wattisham in Suffolk (beating their previous record set in 1973)"

    Pray tell why Wattisham in Suffolk is now the center of attention? Relevance? UK? Local? Is Suffolk local?

    Did you enjoy your break? Trust it was spent on a well deserved relaxing holiday and not a "re-training" course?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 4.

    BBC TV weather forecasts during Thursday evening suggested the day's hot spot was Frittenden in Kent. However, the Met Office website is now showing the hottest place - at 30.2 C - as Writtle in Essex.
    Sorry, not Yorkshire.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 5.

    These pending deluges ~6/7th and the preceding warmth 5/6th were spot-on forecast in timing (within half a day) in WeatherAction (.com) 30d forecast graph; an extract of which is on the WeatherAction site and twitter feed. Thanks PC

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 6.

    As usual the Met office can't get the weather right in a 48 hour period, we were supposed to be getting solid rain for 24 hours, not for about 6 hours like they now propose.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 7.

    We are to get a bit of rain and the alarmist terms flood out--deluge. If you want a deluge go to the tropics. I experienced 12 ins of rain in 8 hours at Butterworth, Malaysia, back in 1964, it wasn't continuous rain either. Now that is a deluge.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 8.

    @5 Piers Corbyn

    Hi Piers, the forecast graph doesn't seem to show the heavy rain in Yorkshire and north west?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 9.

    The rain here in the NE started earlier than the MO forecasted yesterday and while it is now raining, the "heavy rain" forecast this morning for this afternoon hasn't materialised so far.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 10.

    About half past ten in the evening now and there's been hardly a drop here in North Lincs. Guess that shows just how difficult it is to forecast even within 24hours. Thanks for the warning nevertheless.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 11.

    Yesterday morning the MO were forecasting heavy rain and strong winds in the early hours of this morning for my location, but actually the wind fell to almost zero and the rain stopped.
    The forecast for today has changed from heavy and light showers to no rain at all.
    There is still a yellow warning of rain in force but no actual rain in the forecast.
    I don't blame the MO for not being able to forecast 24 hours ahead but for claiming that they can.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 12.

    QV the reality appears to be that certain meteorological setups are very difficult to predict even over a relatively short time period. Paul Hudson jokingly said in one of his forecasts this week that the rain might not appear (or words to that effect - I was not taking notes). It seems it was a classic case of two weather systems clashing with all the excitement along the line of that enclashment but no certainty as to where that line would be. Quite pleasant round ours today.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 13.

    So it appears that the MO can only forecast weather correctly when it is "easy to forecast".

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 14.

    or if it's in a 100 years time :)

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 15.

    Or if it's already happened.... hindcasting is an art form.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 16.

    WE are entering autumn, though we have a few days of summer left astronomically, and the Arctic appears to have turned straight into winter with refreezing starting in a few places a couple of weeks early. There are 920,000 sq, miles more ice now than the same time last year. Prof Judith Curry has stated at this Arctic news that the IPCC must look at their latest claims because these are completely wrong.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 17.

    @16 John Marshall

    Why do the IPCC need to look at their claims? This year was a better year for ice than 2012, but it's still well bellow the 1980's average, the 90's average and the 2000's average. The ice extent is still very much on a downwards trend. Much like after the bad year of 2007 people are trying to suggest that a better year following shows everything is OK.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 18.

    @John Marshall, as true believer cogger demonstrates so admirably, the whole point of being a true believer is that you are permitted, nay obliged, to disregard any evidence that does not support your faith. You must make sure Judith Curry is informed immediately that true believer cogger disagrees with her. I am sure she will rethink her conclusions.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 19.

    @18 NTropywins

    Where have I disregarded evidence? There is more ice this year, that's a fact? I have however disregarded a opinion that the IPCC report is turned on it's head by the said evidence.

    Though I'm not sure Prof. Curry actually said it, as there is nothing on her website and her quotes in the Daily Mail don't say it either.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 20.

    16. John Marshall

    If you look back over the September minimum extents since accurate records began, *every* season in which a new record minimum sea ice extent was set was immediately followed by an apparent 'recovery'.

    http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/files/2012/10/201209-record-low-monthly-arctic-extent-590x441.png

    Prior to the record minimum set in 2012, new minimum extent records were set in 1985, 1990, 1995, 2002, 2005, and 2007. In every single case these record lows were followed by year-on-year increases, and in two cases (1991-1992; 2008-2009) minimum ice extent expanded for two consecutive years.

    Therefore, if Arctic sea ice minimum extent had suffered a consecutive record loss this year, it would have been exceptional and a major surprise.

    "Let the shipwrecks of others' be your landmarks" is an old saying. This post from 2010 on WUWT might serve as a 'landmark' for people who imagine that Arctic sea ice has magically recovered... again!

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/09/prediction-arctic-ice-will-continue-to-recover-this-summer/

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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