They think it's all Oval...
Of course, four years ago, it was England who required only a draw to reclaim the urn and, after Australia's emphatic victory at Headingley, the tourists clearly start this Oval Test as favourites to retain the Ashes.
Virtually everyone I have spoken to since that disappointment in Leeds seems to give England no chance of success in this Test match and let's be honest; the signs are not that great.
The Oval this summer has been a batting paradise and England have got to somehow take 20 wickets. Only one England batsman has scored a century in this series and, to use a sporting cliché, it is the Australian side who seem to have the momentum.
What is great about sport, however, is its unpredictability. Who really thought that South Korea's YE Yang would defeat Tiger Woods to win the USPGA golf on Sunday?
To think, only a few days before Headingley England went into the final day of the Edgbaston Test with a great chance to make it 2-0 in the series. At that point it was Australia who seemed in trouble as they were forced into a bold selection with Shane Watson replacing Phillip Hughes as well as their own last-minute wicketkeeping crisis as Brad Haddin was injured in the warm-up.
Despite all the speculation, it came as little surprise that England's selectors did not make drastic changes to the squad for The Oval. Much as the stories surrounding the likes of Rob Key, Marcus Trescothick and, of course, Mark Ramprakash kept us entertained for the past few days it would have been rare for Geoff Miller and his team to shock us with a leftfield selection (Darren Pattinson perhaps the only one in recent times).
As for our selection for The Oval, Jonathan Agnew will be leading the team alongside Christopher Martin-Jenkins and ABC Radio's Jim Maxwell with expert summarisers Vic Marks, Phil Tufnell and Matthew Hayden. "Haydos" knows all about playing for Australia in an Ashes decider at The Oval having scored 138 at the ground four years ago, whilst Tuffers famously took 11 wickets to help England record a dramatic Ashes Test victory at The Oval back in 1997. Our TMS scorer Malcolm Ashton will be keeping a close eye on the statistics whilst Alison Mitchell will be out and about as our Test Match Special reporter.
The extra element to this game is that its also the final Test match for Andrew Flintoff and during the lunch interval on Thursday we'll be paying a tribute to "Freddie", including a special interview looking back on his Test career.
We'll hear from some of the well-known names coming along to the Oval for the Test including actor, writer, comedian, author, television presenter, film director and national treasure Stephen Fry joining us at tea on Thursday and singer/songwriter Lily Allen who will be our special guest on Saturday to talk about how she has become hooked on the game. As you may have read in previous blogs, Allen, known for best selling songs like "Smile" and "LDN", has been writing on Twitter about listening to TMS through the summer and has even expressed her desire to become a cricket commentator when her pop career comes to an end. After joining us she will be making her way to Chelmsford as one of the headline guests at the V Festival alongside another big cricket fan and former TMS guest, Razorlight's Johnny Borrell.
As well as ball-by-ball commentary on Test Match Special there will be extensive coverage on other BBC outlets: Pat Murphy and guests including Graham Gooch, Jason Gillespie, Dean Jones and Mark Butcher will provide updates every 15 minutes on BBC Radio 5 live whilst Richard Bacon and Simon Mayo will be presenting their 5 live programmes on Thursday and Friday from The Oval with Mark Pougatch hosting 5 live Sport from the ground on Saturday and Sunday afternoon. David Garrido will be live there, too, for Radio One. There'll also be extensive coverage on BBC London and look out for the legendary daily TMS podcast with Aggers and Geoff Boycott.