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Day 290: World severe weather watch

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Dave Britton – Met Office | 16:30 UK time, Monday, 17 October 2011

Distance travelled ~ 745'308'000 km

At least four people are thought to have died in Mexico, when Hurricane Jova made landfall on Tuesday. A hurricane warning was issued for a 100-mile stretch of coast and Manzanillo, one of Mexico's biggest cargo ports, was shut down during the storm.

Guatemala was also affected by tropical rains, with flash floods and landslides reported to have killed at least 18 people. The storms have triggered widespread flooding, threatening several communities. Transport has been severely affected, with at least a dozen landslides and significant damage to roads and bridges.

The week ahead

Across Europe:
• Very heavy rain in central and southern Scotland on Monday, with up to 60mm of rain likely in places. The rain will turn to snow over ground above about 400m in the southern Grampians. Strong winds are also expected, with the potential for 60mph gusts on the Irish Sea coasts causing some damage.

• For the rest of the week, the UK can expect cold and windy weather with sunny spells and blustery showers. Some rain may fall as snow over high ground in the north.

Over the Americas:
• Heavy rain continuing across parts of western Mexico and Central America.

• Heavy rain and strong to gale force winds are also expected over north east Canada and the USA, brought by a complex area of low pressure. There is also the risk of snow on the western flank of the low pressure around the Hudson Bay area and also over the Great Lakes.

• A tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean may develop into a tropical storm over the next few days.

• Persistent rain and thunderstorms around Paraguay, North Argentina, Uruguay and the Santa Catarina.

Across Asia:
• Very wet and unsettled over Japan next few days as well as parts of eastern China associated with active fronts and developing lows.

• High probability of heavy rain in north of Bay of Bengal and adjacent land areas. Low to moderate probability of a tropical cyclone forming.

Across Australasia:
• Warm across Adelaide and southern parts of Australia for the time of year, while northwestern parts of Queensland can expect very unsettled conditions.

• Also becoming very unsettled over New Zealand once again.

Across Africa:
• Heavy showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of the far north - mainly north Libya and perhaps also the far north west of Egypt - for the next few days. Showers becoming lighter by midweek but temperatures well below normal.



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