| White Christmas | • Between 1550 and 1850 the UK experienced severe and persistent winters. It was common for rivers to freeze. • Today, the coldest months are January and February. Our winters are milder because the sun is stronger than it was in the 17th century and greenhouse gases have increased. • Research suggests that future winters in the UK will be up to 30% wetter than today. Snowfall will decrease dramatically throughout the UK by 2080 and the annual average temperature across the UK could be up to 3.5°C higher. |
Thursday 23 December It's a good day to be a weatherman. Every run of our forecast model is confirming our thoughts of a cold Christmas Day, with a distinct chance of snow! If you saw last night's Midlands Today programme you will have seen the artificial snow falling at the carol concert in Shrewsbury. I think that Shrewsbury, together with much of the Midlands Today region, will be seeing the real thing come Christmas Day afternoon.
 | | Simon at his desk |
Before that though, there could be sleet or snow tomorrow evening. If you are travelling late on Christmas Eve, be prepared for colder air to sweep in from the north later, turning rain to sleet and snow. The colder air reducing the road temperatures and ice will be forming quickly. For Christmas Day, the morning probably starting dry and fine. However, from late morning and into the afternoon a "pool" of cold air will be moving through the Midlands and this is going to allow heavy showers to form. These may merge to a lengthier period of snow, so many of us may see at least a couple of hours worth of the white stuff, perhaps giving two to three inches. By Boxing Day most of the snow showers will have cleared, and then we're in for another cold one. It's back to the topsy turvey conditions next week with cold air piled just north of the country and milder air to the south. Every so often the cold air may plunge southwards, and so I can't rule out the risk of snow again next week. Have a peaceful Christmas and a Happy New Year, and remember, you can’t change the weather so you might as well enjoy it! Wednesday 22 December Everyday, in everyway, it's getting better... After a brief panic last night (when I saw a set of charts hinting at a milder Christmas Day), I'm happy that the forecast this morning is back on track. There's a huge welling of cold air to the north of the British Isles, and in the Arctic regions generally. In northern Siberia this afternoon, temperatures are at -54°; now, that would feel cold! We won't see temperatures like that in the Midlands, but it's this cold air that's going to be sinking through the region during Christmas Eve and Christmas Day bringing the wintry showers. Highest risk of snow on Christmas Day is reserved for the hills of Shropshire and Staffordshire, although I think anywhere is at risk from a dusting of snow at anytime during the day. If you are travelling watch out as there will be icy patches on the roads. A few days ago I spoke about how the weather on the other side of the world can affect the Midlands. Well today it's the turn of a cold pool of air off California. This is acting like a rock in a stream and forcing air to move to the north of it. This air is then flowing eastwards across Canada, Greenland and eventually reaching us. So you see: the air starts life in the warm waters of the Pacific, moves across the cold land mass of Canada and Greenland, picks up moisture off the Atlantic, and then moves southwards through us. This brings the snow showers we'll be seeing on Christmas Day. At least I hope so! OK, I'm off the Shrewsbury now for some yuletide singing... earplugs at the ready!!
Tuesday 21 December Well, I can relax now; it seems as if colder weather is on its way for Christmas Day. Of course, now I've said that it'll be one of the a warmest Christmases on record. Hope not! It will be a bit of a bumpy ride through the rest of this week though. Milder weather is going to be pushing eastwards through the Midlands tonight, bringing some strong winds and wet weather with it. Not feeling Christmassy at all really as the temperatures tomorrow rise to 11 or 12°C, that's into the mid-50s Fahrenheit. Then it's similar for Thursday with more milder conditions, although I think that most of the rain should have cleared south in the morning and we should get a brighter afternoon. I suppose that milder weather will be welcome though, especially with so myny people travelling this week. Then things turn interesting as we get to Christmas Eve. It won't feel too cold on Christmas Eve morning, but then colder air will be spreading from the north during the day. Showers over the Shropshire Hills and Staffordshire Moorlands will be turning more wintry during the day, and by the evening we may see a few sleet showers at lower levels. Adn so to the big day! There's still a little confusion over the exact details of the weather. The American model is predicting outbreaks of fairly widespread snow across the region, perhaps as much as 2 or 3 inches in places by the evening. The Met Office model though is toning down the cold weather and confining any snow showers to hills in Shropshire and Staffordshire. So, what do I think? My opinion at the moment is that the answer will lie somewhere between the two. I think that it will be a White Christmas for much of the region, even if is only a dusting of snow from afternoon snow showers. Chilly for all of us with temperatures barely rising above freezing, so at least it will feel Christmassy. Now, how is Father Christmas getting on in Lapland? The temperature there this afternoon is -11°C. It's dry, and the northern lights have been in evidence over the past few days. Snow has fallen though and there is just over a foot of snow outside the worskshops. Friday 17 December Christmas chill? Well, maybe, possibly... That's the best way to sum up a weather forecaster's thoughts today. Friday mornings charts continue to build an impression of colder weather breaking through the Midlands at some time over the Christmas period, although today they are pointing to Christmas Day and Boxing Day as being most favoured for the cold outbreak. I'm pleased for other reasons today; it looks as though my forecast of a pre-Christmas cold snap is going to come true this weekend. There is a risk of some snow through Saturday as low pressure moves south of the region. This is going to drag cold air behind it, increasingly turning rain to snow tomorrow afternoon and evening, especially over northern Staffordshire and the Shropshire Hills. Of course, long range forecasts don't always come true, but it looks as if this one was pretty much on course (self congratulations over now!). Back to the Christmas forecast. The official line from the Met Office is that the forecast "remains in the balance". Like me, they think that there is a chance of a cold snap, although the risk of snow is best described as "uncertain". To see the reasons for my thoughts, look at this chart (see the Christmas Day chart link at the top right of the page). This is for Christmas Day, and the blue colours show the cold air streaming through the country and high pressure building to the west, and it’s that which is the determining factor as to whether we see snow or rain showers. If the ridge does build as this chart suggests then we could be in for snow showers, with some really cold air crossing the whole of the Midlands. I’d favour Staffordshire, Shropshire and the West Midlands for the highest risk of snow. Should the ridge not build as suggested though, then we could find things are just cool, with an odd rain shower. OK, that's enough explaining, do I think it will snow Christmas Day in the Midlands? I think I might regret this, but today I would say the chances of snow at some time on Christmas Day in the Midlands are 6 to 7 out of 10. Of course, this could all change by the time of the next update on Monday... A brief word of warning, if you are planning on travelling, especially in the north Midlands on Saturday, check the forecast before you leave things could turn nasty in one or two spots tomorrow afternoon. Thursday 16 December Everyday more and more Midlands Today viewers are stopping and asking me whether it will be a white Christmas. Since the end of November I've been forecasting a pre-Christmas cold snap, and this was backed up by official forecast charts over the last few days. Therefore, my response to the question has so far been, mMaybe, yes"! However, this morning's charts present a more confusing situation. They are suggesting that will still might see a cold snap pre-Christmas, perhaps even as early as this weekend (although no snow). It then becomes milder for a while next week, before colder air tries to come back across the Midlands on Christmas Eve and the early part of Christmas Day. I think what the forecasting computers are doing right now is getting a little confused (perhaps they've sniffed an early sherry?), they know that cold air is on its way, but are having difficulty in hinting as to when this might be. This often happens as we get closer to the date we're interested in. Around 7 or 8 days in advance odd-looking charts are produced by the computer, before things settle down about 5 or 6 days before. So, with this in mind, it may be as late as Monday before I can get any real detail into the forecast, but check back tomorrow as I will update this webpage again on Friday. It always amazes me at how the weather in the Midlands is affected by goings-on on the other side of the world. Just now for example, I'm looking at the weather in western Asia, to see what we might get next week. You might have heard talk of "jet streams". These are high level bands of winds circling the globe, exchanging air between the tropics and the poles and driving pressure systems towards us. At this time of year, the position of the jet stream in the Atlantic is crucial in determining whether we have rain or snow. The northern side is (unsurprisingly) the cold side, whilst the south is warmer. At the start of the week, the jet stream is just south of Iceland, so we are on the milder side, but by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, it is to the south of us, possibly bringing colder conditions. Hmmm, we'll see! I think I need a lie down! (For more on jet streams, see the link on the top right of this page.) Wednesday 15 December It can feel like you're Santa Clause with the magical gift of delivering snow. Of course I then have the difficult job of letting viewers down when Christmas turns out to be mild and we - it can feel like it's all my fault - boo hoo! Wipe away the tears though, because this year is shaping up to be a little different! I must admit to being quite excited when I looked at the charts this morning. Things certainly look set to turn colder next week with northwesterly winds setting in over much of the Midlands. But this is a story that's been developing for a few weeks now. At the end of November, I forecast a cold snap prior to Christmas and the weather charts from the past few days are confirming my suspicions. So, can I be more specific... will it snow?! Well, several weather centres around the world produce forecasts for the coming days. Our own centre is the Meteorological Office at Exeter, but the main long range forecast charts are produced by the American National Weather Service.
 | | Simon understands these maps... |
A neat trick with the charts is to run a set of forecasts, all starting from a slightly different starting point and then see how each one develops highs and lows. This method is called 'ensemble forecasting' and it irons out some of the fabled 'chaos' effects of the weather. The ensemble charts from the USA are freely available on the internet and are updated every 12 hours. I'm particularly interested in these charts at the moment as they are suggesting that the forecast of a pre-Christmas cold snap is becoming more reliable. I actually think that we will probably see a more gradual decline in temperatures through the weekend and next week, although there will be brief milder periods as well. The reason is that the milder air from the middle of the Atlantic is being cut-off and is being replaced by chillier conditions from Greenland and the Arctic. Low pressure will be forced close to the Midlands so we will have rain, but this will be increasingly falling as sleet and snow over high ground, and possibly turning to snow at lower levels as the rain bands clear.
 | | The UK's in an area of low pressure |
OK, time to come clean I guess, will it snow Christmas Day? As I write this, Christmas Day looks fairly unsettled with a risk of rain. It is going to be cool, around 6°C. There is a chance of that rain turning to sleet and snow over high ground to the north and perhaps even at low levels late in the day, so Staffordshire and Shropshire must be most favoured. However, the forecast is changing day by day, and we are still 10 days away so who knows, I could be talking complete rubbish. I'll write another update soon. *** For the latest forecast, watch Midlands Today at 1.30pm and 6.30pm every weekday or you can find the latest forecast online in BBC Birmingham’s Weather section. Written by Simon Keeling | 
