Delivering Quality First Interim Findings January 2012 Getting the best out of the BBC for licence fee payers Summary In October 2011 we published the BBC Executive’s proposed approach to meeting the constrained funding of the licence fee settlement agreed with the Government in 2010. We put these proposals out to public consultation to test the details against our strategic objectives and priorities for the BBC, which are to: increase the distinctiveness and quality of BBC output; improve value for money; set new standards of openness and transparency; and do more to serve all audiences. We have now completed our initial analysis of the Executive’s proposals. This document sets out our interim findings, focusing in particular on the overall shape of the savings, and the specific areas where we have developed a clear view at this stage of where we think changes to the plans are required. It is a new experience for the BBC to see its income fall significantly in real terms. We understand this has been a difficult process for staff and that some licence fee payers will be disappointed by some of the particular choices we have taken as they become apparent on air. But we remain confident that the BBC can provide an outstanding public service to its audiences across TV, radio and online, and we are determined that this is done as well, and efficiently, as possible. The key points of our interim findings are: • Our independent advisers have concluded that the Executive has developed robust and challenging efficiency proposals. We are now setting a target for the BBC Executive to generate annual efficiency savings of 11 per cent by 2016-17 and are putting in place controls to monitor the implementation of the plan. • We had a high level of response to our public consultation. Most respondents expressed specific concerns based on their particular listening/viewing interests, although there is a general recognition of the financial constraints faced by the BBC and the need for us to make difficult choices. • We have identified a small number of areas where we have asked the Executive to re-think their plans – most notably where we feel that particular proposals would have an unduly detrimental impact on the BBC’s journalistic output. • We are still conducting our analysis in some areas and, with input from Ofcom, are examining whether any further regulatory testing such as a Public Value Test is necessary. This includes looking at the significance and impact of those particular proposals which would require us to amend service licences. • Otherwise, we are broadly endorsing the shape of the plans proposed by the Executive - albeit we will continue to test some aspects of the detail - and will proceed next with planning the specific budget for next year. We now have a number of further analytical strands and processes to pursue, including: further analysis of consultation responses; setting and publishing the BBC’s budget and business plans for 2012-13; and regulatory testing. We have also asked the Executive to prepare statements, as part of the implementation of Delivering Quality First, about what the BBC intends to offer the audience in each of the Nations of the UK. We aim to publish our final conclusions in the spring. January 2012 The financial plan In October 2010, the Government and the BBC agreed that the licence fee should remain at £145.50 until the end of the current Charter in 2017 and that the BBC would fund a range of extra broadcasting-related activities including: • The BBC World Service and BBC Monitoring. • An expanded partnership with the Welsh language television service S4C. • Support for new local television services. • Raising and extending the current ring-fenced sum in the licence fee for digital TV switchover from £133m a year to £150m a year to support broadband roll-out. The plan developed by the Executive to meet these obligations, as well as providing some funding for some targeted re-investment into content and digital development, is to make around £670 million a year of savings by 2016-17, equivalent to around 19 per cent of the licence fee. The Executive believes that additional savings achieved from the final year of the current efficiency programme mean that overall savings will exceed 20 per cent. The key components are to make: • Productivity savings of 11 per cent of the licence fee. • Content and service reductions of around 6 per cent of the licence fee. • Additional income from, for example, commercial activity of around 2 per cent of the licence fee. This settlement is tough for the BBC. But we also believe this is a fair settlement given the funding challenges faced by the rest of the public sector, providing the stability and security of funding needed to plan for the future, in spite of the uncertain economic outlook. Underpinning the whole of this plan is our determination to push the BBC to make sure its efficiency programme is as ambitious as it can possibly be Throughout this process, efficiency has been the starting point - because we have a responsibility to require the Executive both to maximise the value for money it offers licence fee payers, and to minimise the impact of the financial settlement on the BBC’s content and services. The Executive started developing its efficiency and productivity plans from January 2011 and gave us regular progress updates over the course of 2011. In July 2011 we commissioned independent advice from Ernst & Young to provide assurance that the Executive had approached the efficiency programme in a rigorous and thorough way. Ernst & Young carried out a series of interviews and reviewed key documents throughout August and September 2011. They compared the BBC’s processes with a range of other organisations. Ernst & Young concluded that the Executive is running an effective DQF programme from which robust and challenging efficiency proposals have emerged. In summary: January 2012 • The Executive has aimed to set stretching targets while being mindful of deliverability. The impact of the proposals on the audience (quality and reach) has been considered. • The programme is based on an informed understanding of performance relative to external benchmarks and comparisons. • The programme compares favourably with similar cost transformation programmes experienced by Ernst & Young. We are encouraged by Ernst and Young’s findings but also note that further work is required to define the detail of the cost saving plans and deliver them in a challenging economic environment. Ernst and Young’s report, which we are publishing alongside this document, makes recommendations to help achieve this. Our focus now is to oversee the implementation of the plan and monitor its delivery We are now setting a target for the BBC Executive to generate annual efficiency savings of 11 per cent by 2016-17. This means that in real terms efficiency savings would reduce the BBC’s overall costs by 11 per cent in 2016-17 compared with a 2012-13 baseline. It will not be straightforward for the Executive to deliver these savings having already driven significant efficiency savings over recent years, and given the tough and uncertain economic climate. Meeting our target will require strong leadership and discipline from the Executive and staff. Our focus from now on is to monitor implementation, in particular to test whether efficiency savings are having a negative impact on the quality or scope of the BBC’s services. The specific actions we will now take include: • Following up Ernst & Young’s recommendations to ensure that the Executive is well placed to manage the next stages of the programme. • Where possible, taking assurance from controls introduced by the Executive such as the quarterly health checks recommended by Ernst and Young. • Using the Trust’s existing performance measurement reports to monitor progress at a high level, and our rolling programme of service reviews to assess progress and impact at a service level. • Using National Audit Office reports and the Trust’s own value for money investigations to examine progress on cross-divisional areas. We will also consider carrying out a comprehensive review part way through the programme to assess overall progress against the programme objectives. January 2012 Outline consultation findings The public consultation The public consultation ran from October 6 to December 21 2011 and was run alongside separate consultations as part of our service reviews of BBC local radio and the BBC Asian Network, which included details of the Delivering Quality First proposals relating to those services. In total we received around 18,000 responses as well as a number of petitions about specific changes. We also received a significant level of responses from organisations, politicians and other representatives. The aim of the consultation was to help us test whether the detail of the Executive’s proposals was consistent with the strategy and direction we set for the BBC in 2010. The consultation focused on the impact the plans will have on the output of each service. From this point of view, two of our four objectives are particularly important: • Increasing distinctiveness, including through an increased focus on the Executive’s five editorial priorities: news, children’s, knowledge, UK drama and comedy, and events that bring the Nation and communities together. • Serving all parts of the audience, by ensuring the BBC continues to reach the vast majority of the public with distinctive content and by improving the extent to which its services resonate with audiences in all the UK’s Nations, regions and communities. Detailed analysis of responses to the consultations is ongoing - some of the key themes emerging from our initial review are as follows: • There is a broad acceptance of the financial constraints facing the BBC, and the need for difficult choices to be taken. • Some respondents commented that the BBC should look to improve internal efficiency across the organisation prior to reducing expenditure on programming and services. The main concerns were about the amount of money being paid to senior staff and presenters. • Some argued that the BBC should be more focused on high-quality and distinctive output, and that some of the proposed cuts could undermine this, while more mainstream services such as BBC One were seen as being overly protected. • Most respondents expressed specific concerns about the services and programmes which they use. More broadly, some argued that the proposals could adversely affect certain groups of licence fee payers, while the degree of protection afforded to services like Radio 4 was seen by some as over serving some audiences. • The proposed changes to local radio in England caused the strongest reaction. Most respondents were opposed to the changes, stressing particularly the potential loss of local identity, knowledge and experience which could result from additional content sharing beyond that which is currently scheduled. The sharing of the afternoon slots was the least popular proposal. Additionally respondents were concerned about the effect the changes could have on local sports coverage January 2012 and music programming. These views were echoed by those who took part in Local Radio Service review consultation. • Some respondents questioned proposed changes to music output, particularly the reduction of live music on Radio 3, and to the BBC Introducing opt-out programmes on Radio 1, while others expressed concern that the scale of cuts to BBC Four might undermine its distinctiveness. We have also received responses from our four Audience Councils in each nation of the UK, who raised a number of common themes: • The central importance of the BBC continuing to focus on broadcasting high- quality and distinctive content, even if this means doing fewer things because of funding constraints. • Support for the focus on the BBC’s five editorial priority areas, and in particular its journalism, although Councils believe there remain areas for improvement - in particular in how the BBC’s network news output reflects the realities of a devolved UK. • The need for further details about the longer-term implications for nations opt-out programming, in light of the Executive’s proposals to launch a High Definition version of BBC Two without HD versions of opt-out programming. • Support for the BBC’s continued commitment to increasing the volume of network production made outside London, while recognising that more needs to be done in some areas to develop creative sustainable production bases. • While recognising that the BBC can only spend a certain percentage of the licence fee on distributing content, Councils raised the issue of fair access to the BBC's services, and the need to ensure that audiences across the UK are able to access relevant BBC services, particularly on newer digital platforms. Responses from organisations and other stakeholders We received a large number of responses from organisations and other institutions and stakeholders, and also held six roundtable discussions with a range of stakeholders to explore particular parts of the proposals. A wide range of issues were raised, with the key themes including: • The scale of the cuts to content looked broadly acceptable but some specific proposals did not match the underlying strategy. Some respondents commented that they believed there was further to go to reform Executive and presenter pay, and address working practices across the organisation. • The local radio proposals could risk local radio stations’ ability to perform key functions such as holding local decision makers to account and promoting community cohesion. Some also commented that, combined with changes to English regional current affairs on television, the proposals could damage the BBC’s journalistic offering to an audience not easily reached by others - particularly given the contracting local and regional media offer from commercial providers. January 2012 • The BBC should aim to be more distinctive. In particular, some commercial broadcasters argued that the proposals for the BBC’s more mainstream services such as BBC One, Radio 1 and Radio 2 did not match the Trust’s stated ambitions for these services to become more distinctive. • There were some concerns that the loss of coverage of minority sports in general, or mainstream sports not covered elsewhere, could be significant to particular localities or regions – with particular reference to changes on local radio. • The cuts to live music on several BBC networks particularly Radio 3, and the changes to BBC Introducing opt outs on Radio 1, could be damaging to UK music and culture Audience research Alongside the public consultation we have been able to draw on specific pieces of audience research. This has allowed us to test and understand reactions to the package of proposals from a representative sample of the public. Insight from research commissioned by the Executive as they were developing the proposals found that participants felt the package of proposals was broadly acceptable1 This broad acceptance did not equate to enthusiastic support (as most were not in favour of reductions to BBC content and services per se). However, participants considered the proposals a reasonable response from the BBC given the constraints of the licence fee settlement. Where objections were raised, they were voiced more from a ‘consumer’ rather than a ‘citizen’ perspective, expressing concern particularly about the perceived impact of the proposals on the content and services that they used. Concerns were most likely to be raised if participants did not think that a good alternative existed, although there was some debate about what constituted a good alternative, and if a reduction was seen to be unfair or disproportionate (for example, affecting a particular group of people or a BBC service or genre more than others). Most participants felt it was important for the BBC to protect both ‘popular’ and ‘niche’ services because of its wider public service remit. In making decisions about savings, participants first wanted reassurance that the BBC has taken significant steps to control costs before making reductions to content and services. Our audience research on local radio tells us that it is held in very high regard by its listeners We are also able to draw on specific research about local radio, which we commissioned as part of our separate, routine review of local radio. The findings of this research, which we will publish alongside our final conclusions, show that listeners generally think their stations perform very strongly and make an important contribution to delivering the BBC’s public purposes. Its particular strengths lie in its localness, provision of relevant news and 1http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/insidethebbc/howwework/reports/pdf/dqf_ipsosmori_audienceperceptions_report. pdf January 2012 information, coverage of local life, sport and events. Listeners also tend to have high regard for the quality of specific presenters and programmes, particularly their local knowledge, and experience. They particularly appreciate hearing local accents and value the high degree of listener involvement. That said, the research has highlighted some areas for improvement. Listeners sometimes find content too trivial or repetitive and the style of music can be off-putting for some, while slightly more could be done to ensure audience expectations that local radio provides high-quality journalistic output and holds decision makers to account are met. We also used our audience research on local radio to test audience reaction to the specific DQF proposals Our research tested reactions to the various forms of content sharing proposed by the Executive, which has allowed us to assess the proposals with a representative sample of listeners. The research shows that opposition to content sharing is strongest against the proposal to share in weekday afternoons (see Figure 1), followed by weekday evenings. Opposition tended to be higher among 35 to 65 year olds (where a majority were opposed to afternoon sharing) and away from south east (especially in the south west and Cumbria). That said, the research presents a mixed picture: more people surveyed were in favour than against sharing at some parts of the off peak schedule - only 16 per cent were opposed to overnight sharing with 5 live, with a majority of listeners neutral about the proposal. Figure 1: Audience reactions to the Executive’s sharing proposals Source: Jigsaw, research commissioned by the BBC Trust The reasons for support or opposition are broadly consistent with the findings of our consultation. Those opposed to content sharing tend to express this more strongly than January 2012 those in favour, and are most concerned about the loss of local identity from sharing, and are suspicious that further sharing will follow once introduced. For those who were neutral, or favourable to the proposals, there was a general understanding of the tough economic climate and the need for all organisations to make savings and take difficult choices. For programming out of peak, there was a sense that it is less important for local radio to remain local at these times, while there was also recognition that sharing could be a way of improving the quality and mix of output. For some, where sharing already exists at some parts of the schedule, there was a sense that this tends to work effectively. January 2012 Initial findings on the Executive’s proposals In broad terms, we support the direction of travel proposed by the Executive and consider that it fits our strategy It is not an easy process to decide how to allocate the required savings across the BBC. Every service is currently performing well and has a loyal following, and it is very difficult for listeners and viewers to accept any reduction in what they get from their licence fees. However, it is our job to make the difficult choices needed, and we believe the approach taken by the Executive is broadly the right one. In particular, it seeks to: • protect the five editorial priorities and areas where the BBC most clearly distinguishes itself from other programme makers • maintain investment in those parts of the BBC that bring the greatest value to the greatest number of people: distinctive and high-quality programmes in the peak schedules of the flagship network television and radio services. For the most part, we are content for the Executive to take forward its budget planning on the basis of the plans drawn up, although we have to undertake further analytical work and regulatory testing in some specific areas. The consequences, however, of having to take these difficult choices mean that some parts of current output will be scaled back, or removed altogether. We support the Executive’s approach which has tried to reduce spend in content areas that fall outside the editorial priorities (such as some sports rights and lower-value entertainment programming), remove or re-cast less-valued parts of the schedule in daytime and overnight, and take some money out of the BBC's smaller channels, but we understand that some people will be disappointed by some of the decisions that will be taken. We have identified a few specific areas where we have asked the BBC Executive to re-think their proposals because we are concerned they would disproportionately affect the BBC’s journalistic offer We regard the BBC’s journalism - as expressed through high quality and impartial news and current affairs - as the single most important priority for the BBC, and the core of the BBC’s public service remit. Both in the UK and around the world, the BBC is very closely associated with its news, and current levels of audience reach, appreciation and quality are very high. In general we are supportive of the proposals put forward by the Executive concerning journalism. Overall content savings in this area are lower than others, and the proposals aim to sustain the BBC’s commitment to core journalistic output - its live breaking news, its main news bulletins on flagship networks, and its longer form investigative current affairs for both the main television and radio networks, as well as output specifically aimed at audiences in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. We support some of the limited reductions in output proposed, and the targeted reinvestment in investigative resources for Panorama and some foreign newsgathering. We January 2012 also support the proposal to increase the amount of international current affairs on BBC television. However, we do not underestimate some of the challenges the BBC’s journalism faces in the coming years, in particular to integrate its domestic and international news operations, set against the backdrop of rapidly changing political and economic environments, at a regional, national and global level. We will therefore monitor the impacts of changes in this area particularly closely in the coming years. Our analysis of the proposals has convinced us however that some of the proposed changes - to local radio and some current affairs output - are likely to have too much of a detrimental impact on the BBC’s journalistic aspirations and reputation. Local Radio It is right to look for ways to cut the costs of Local Radio as elsewhere in the BBC The proposals put forward by the Executive are designed to focus spend on peak-time programmes - breakfast, mid-morning and drivetime - sport, and faith on Sunday mornings; while reducing costs in other parts of the schedules, mainly through increased levels of sharing between stations in off-peak slots such as weekday afternoons and Sunday afternoons and evenings. On weekdays between 7pm and 10pm, the Executive proposed that all stations would share a single all-England programme, while all stations would broadcast Radio 5 Live from 1am until the start of their breakfast programme. Within all shared programming, individual stations would continue to provide local news bulletins as at present, and would be able to opt-out of shared schedules in times of civil emergency or bad weather. In total the proposals, combined with proposed efficiency savings which are mainly targeted at reducing the costs of local newsrooms, would save around £15million of current expenditure. We are asking Executive to find ways to scale back the proposed changes to BBC local radio There is very sound logic behind the Executive’s proposals in the context of the financial circumstances faced by the BBC. Content sharing already exists in some areas at some times without much of an apparent effect on the quality of output, and it is clear that listeners are generally less concerned about the need for a local service to remain local in off peak times such as overnight. The emerging findings from our audience research, and that conducted by the Executive following sharing trials last year, suggest that it is possible that some sharing of content, in some areas and at some points of the day, may be an effective way to increase the quality of output. However, the findings from our consultation, audience research and other analysis have shown us that local speech radio is an area of almost total market failure; that it brings something unique and intimate to its audience, many of whom tend not to use many other BBC services beyond mainstream TV. To some, particularly away from the south east, local radio is seen to provide balance against perceptions of a metropolitan and centrist BBC, and above all, listeners value most the localness of their particular station. January 2012 We therefore think the scale and impact of the cuts, although lower in financial terms than for many other parts of the BBC, is disproportionate to the value of these services to their audience and have asked the Executive to consider again the shape of their proposals, set against a clearer overall strategy for local radio as a whole. We will work with the Executive over the coming weeks to model various options, using the findings of our consultations and research as a guide. Our overriding principle is that local radio must stay local for most of the time to continue to have an impact and to stay distinctive. Local radio must also be appropriately resourced to do this, and we would expect any revised proposition to include a scaling back of the efficiency savings identified for local journalism to make sure that such local content is always distinctive and of high- quality. Our more specific priorities are to ensure that: • The great majority of local stations should remain as local as they are now in the afternoons, and should be supported with sufficient journalistic resources. Audience reactions have been strongest against the proposal to share across regions during weekday afternoons. Among the various sharing proposals, this is also the time of day at which more people listen, and when the need for local content is higher (than off peak), although we recognise that sharing in some areas at this time might still be the most appropriate way forward. • Ways are found to continue to protect more specialist and distinctive local content out of peak. Alongside local news and information, the evening and weekend schedules of many local radio stations carry unique or specialist local content that is of particular value to their audience – for instance sports coverage that has a particular resonance in a particular area such as rugby league and football, specialist music and emerging artists, or other minority and community output. We consider it important that local radio keeps investing in these areas, and we recognise this raises some questions about the all England sharing proposal given that stations will likely have to opt-out of such a programme on a regular basis. We don't expect that the answer will be the same answer for every station Local radio is not the same everywhere. It means different things to different communities in terms of news, sport, culture, identity and music. The changes should reflect this, and look to give station managers some discretion to be flexible and run stations with regard to the particular needs of their audiences. Current affairs We are also asking for some amendments to the proposals on current affairs In light of the changing, and uncertain, domestic and global political and economic situations we have reviewed in detail the Executive’s proposals to make changes to longer form journalism and current affairs output. In overall terms, our view is that the changes look reasonably well grounded, aiming to protect core programming and strands on both radio and television and minimise their audience impact. We are supportive of changes on network television and will retain the specified quota for peak time current affairs output at its current level to safeguard against possible declines in such output. January 2012 The BBC must continue to provide a strong regional current affairs offer as part of its commitment to UK journalism BBC television’s English regional current affairs is mainly delivered through the Inside Out strand. The Executive’s proposals are to reduce expenditure by around 40 per cent, with the savings allowing protection for other regional output, including the regional news, from making significant changes. Inside Out would reduce its regional presence from the current 11 regions to between 5 and 7, while retaining current patterns of scheduling and frequency. The Executive has told us that some flexibility for current regions to broadcast as now would be retained in certain circumstances, although the proposal would mean most episodes broadcasting to significantly larger regions than currently. We remain to be convinced that the savings for regional current affairs can be achieved without undermining the BBC’s journalistic aspirations Regional current affairs output is an area of market failure which makes an important contribution to delivering original journalism at a regional level, and offers something different from other BBC output to help deliver the BBC’s journalism priority. Our analysis, set alongside some of the reaction to our public consultation, suggests that audience interest is relatively strong. We can see that some flexibility to share content across regions as proposed could be effective, and indeed some episodes of Inside Out are currently shaped along these lines. However, we believe the proposals, as presented, will put at risk the ability of the programme to deliver output that remains relevant and impactful on a consistent enough basis, and we have asked the Executive to re-evaluate whether more funding should be made available to safeguard this important output. It is not our role to dictate a specific level of funding for this programme, and we can see that it might not be possible to maintain quality and impact if it were run along current lines, but on a smaller budget. However, our aspiration is that the Executive’s revised proposal should look to achieve any savings from regional current affairs output: • without unduly diluting its regional character and identity so that output remains relevant to audiences. • while continuing to play an important role in helping the BBC meet its journalistic aspirations by providing a strong core of investigative journalism as well as a mix of ‘lighter’ human interest and consumer type stories. We will assess the Executive’s revised proposition against these principles. We do not agree with the Executive’s proposal to decommission dedicated weekly current affairs on 5 live The Executive proposed to decommission its weekly one hour current affairs programme on 5 live, replacing its slot in the schedule with an extended football phone in, and instead running some current affairs output within the existing parts of 5 live’s schedule. We have assessed this proposal in the context of our service review of 5 live, which we will publish later this month. January 2012 We see current affairs as an important part of the journalistic offer of 5 live and something that contributes to BBC radio’s overall distinctiveness. The proposal would leave the station, which is primarily a news service and contributes to the BBC’s editorial aspirations for its journalistic output, without a dedicated current affairs/investigative slot. In light of this, and the relatively small financial saving the proposal would make, we have asked the Executive to retain dedicated current affairs output and re-think plans in this area. Alternative savings We believe the changes outlined above should cost no more than £10 million a year and have encouraged the Executive to find ways to fund this without further impact on services and content We estimate that the changes we are asking the Executive to pursue will require the Executive to find no more than £10 million a year. We have asked the Executive to try and fund this through a combination of further efficiencies or other non-content savings, although we recognise this will be challenging given the extent of savings already proposed. We note that the Executive has commissioned an external adviser to review ways of working in local radio, and we anticipate that some of the savings needed may be found from this review. January 2012 Next steps This document presents our interim findings based on an initial review of consultation responses and other analytical work. Over the coming weeks our focus will be in four principal areas. Firstly, we will undertake further analytical work on the Executive’s proposals, including further analysis of the findings of the public consultation, and completing our on-going service reviews of the Asian Network and BBC local radio to refine the future directions for these services. We will also review the Executive’s additional work where we have asked for changes to the plan. Secondly, we will use our interim findings as a guide for our analysis of the BBC’s budget proposals for the coming years, which we intend to approve in March 2012. Thirdly, we will put a number of the detailed proposals through our regulatory processes. In particular, we have started regulatory testing on the proposed changes to: • children’s output, where it is proposed to remove such programming from BBC One and BBC Two following digital switchover. • Radio 1 and 1 Xtra, including the changes to share news bulletins between the two stations and replace the nation’s opt-out programmes on Radio 1 with a single UK wide strand on Radio 1. • the BBC’s High Definition services, including the proposed closure of the BBC HD channel and planning to make BBC Two an HD service. We are aware that the move to provide channels in HD raises a number of questions regarding opt-out programming - a matter raised during our public consultation and in discussions with our Audience Councils. We will explore these issues in more detail with the Executive prior to agreeing any changes to the current strategy and approach to opt-out provision. These tests will include an assessment of the likely impact on audiences and users as well consulting Ofcom on the impact on others including the market. Finally, we have also asked the Executive to prepare statements, as part of the implementation of Delivering Quality First, about what the BBC intends to offer the audience in each of the Nations of the UK. These statements, which will be published alongside our final conclusions, will set out the strategy and proposals for each Nation of the UK, including: • The relevant national, political and broadcasting context • The BBC’s role within each Nation • A high-level overview of how the BBC is currently performing in each Nation • A plan for Delivering Quality First in each Nation to 2016 • The strategy for network production in each Nation to 2016 We intend to complete and publish all this work in time for final conclusions in the spring. January 2012