What exactly is the crisis that our fictional Situation Room players are responding to?
The Briefing
Today, the day of your meeting is April 29 2004.
Throughout 2003, India and Pakistan experienced relative calm although no significant progress was made in relation to the thorny issue of Kashmir. Sporadic arrests of al-Qaeda members by the Pakistan police were made in Karachi with the usual criticism from New Delhi about the presence of terrorists in Pakistan.
At the end of December 2003, there were some particularly vicious attacks across the Line of Control by a militant group, a breakaway of Lashkar e Toiba. They blew up two military police watchposts near Srinagar and the Indian defence minister immediately announced that more troops would be deployed to the Line of Control, the first increase in numbers there since late 2002 when in fact numbers had been reduced.
Tensions mounted slowly during January and February with troops being mobilised to the Line of Control by both Pakistan and India accompanied by routine cross-the-line shelling and firing.
On March 18 2004, the Indian Defence Minister was assassinated in broad daylight by the same splinter terrorist group which struck in December. Within two days, and in accordance with its emergency plans, India launched punitive air strikes across the Line of Control.
The Indian Government's declared aim was to destroy the militant bases in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, insisting that it was now clearer than ever that Pakistan had no intention of controlling terrorist activity within its own borders.
Pakistan was outraged by this response calling India's act "a declaration of war". It promised to do whatever was necessary to defend itself against this aggression. One week later intelligence indicated that Pakistan was mobilising its nuclear forces. Constant surveillance indicated much movement at storage facilities but the whereabouts of the missiles is now unknown.
India continued its campaign across the Line of Control amidst the shuttle diplomacy to Islamabad and Delhi - all to no avail. The more nationalistic members of the Indian Government have taken hold of the situation, continuing to insist that this moment had been a long time coming and that Indian patience with Pakistan's support for terrorism against it had finally run out.
Two weeks after the first air strike, the Pakistan army crossed the international border in an attempt to outflank the Indians. The Defence Minister announced this to be yet another outrage on the part of Pakistan and immediately began mobilising troops to head for Karachi, across the Rajastan desert.
The US Secretary of State, the UK Foreign Secretary and representatives from the EU have all visited the region but without any sign of a breakthrough. The United Nations Security Council has issued a resolution urging both sides to back down and seek talks with a view to a complete ceasefire.
CIA reports about growing unrest inside the Pakistan Government are beginning to firm up. They centre on the number two who is a popular military man but more militant than the president. Intelligence does not suggest a coup but there is a close watch on the situation.
By the end of April, Indian troops have crossed into Pakistan near to Karachi with suitable air support. There are casualties and an emerging humanitarian crisis on both sides which, according to the UN Commissioner for Human Rights, is not being dealt with appropriately by the Pakistan Government.
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